AGL Energy Limited (AGLXY)
OTHER OTC:AGLXY
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AGL Energy
(OTC:AGLXY)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$6.50
▲(6.04% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/11/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (loss-making margins and deteriorating free cash flow). This is partially offset by a constructive technical trend and a positive earnings call focused on stronger H1 execution, improved cost outlook, liquidity, and capital recycling, while valuation is mixed due to the attractive yield but negative P/E.
Positive Factors
Battery & storage returns
High battery EBITDA and a ~24% annualised yield indicate storage assets are delivering strong, recurring cash returns. Durable earnings from grid-scale batteries diversify revenue away from volatile wholesale generation, support higher long-term margins and improve project IRR profiles for future firming investments.
Negative Factors
Negative profitability
Sustained negative net margin and ROE signal structural profitability pressure that limits internally generated equity returns. Without persistent margin recovery, the company faces constraints on reinvestment, dividend sustainability and the ability to self-fund the transition to more capital-intensive renewables and firming assets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Battery & storage returns
High battery EBITDA and a ~24% annualised yield indicate storage assets are delivering strong, recurring cash returns. Durable earnings from grid-scale batteries diversify revenue away from volatile wholesale generation, support higher long-term margins and improve project IRR profiles for future firming investments.
Read all positive factors
AGL Energy (AGLXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.54B
Dividend Yield5.02%
Average Volume (3M)19.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.3
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth4.67%
EPS Growth-112.83%
CountryUS
Employees3,735
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.37
Shares Outstanding672,747,250
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume19
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-23.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.59
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.83
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit6.59
Enterprise Value/Ebitda7.65
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)0.67
Revenue Forecast (FY)$9.74B
AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
AGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates in three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in gen...
How the Company Makes Money
AGL Energy generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily through the sale of electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's retail segment is a significant source of income, where it competes in th...
AGL Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed predominantly positive operational progress and strategic execution: stronger fleet availability and flexibility, notable battery performance, customer growth and higher consumer margins supported robust H1 results and enabled a narrowed FY '26 guidance range. However, near-term financial headwinds remain from increased depreciation and finance costs, higher net debt from growth investment, lower H1 volatility that constrained upside, and workforce engagement impacts. The business emphasized disciplined capital allocation, cost reductions (target $50 million p.a.), capital recycling (Tilt divestment) and continued large-scale battery and pipeline development to capture long-term demand tailwinds.Positive Updates
Strong operational and financial momentum
Underlying NPAT of $353 million and EBITDA of $1.09 billion driven by improved generation availability, fleet flexibility and customer margin expansion.
Negative Updates
EBITDA flat and underlying profit headwinds
EBITDA remained broadly flat despite operational gains; underlying NPAT was lower than prior period due to higher depreciation & amortisation and increased finance costs.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong operational and financial momentum
Underlying NPAT of $353 million and EBITDA of $1.09 billion driven by improved generation availability, fleet flexibility and customer margin expansion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
AGL said it has narrowed FY‑26 guidance after a strong H1, declaring a fully‑franked interim ordinary dividend of $0.24 per share (consistent with its 50–75% underlying NPAT payout target) and reiterating an expectation to pay a fully‑franked full‑year dividend; H1 underlying NPAT was $353m and EBITDA $1.09bn. Management revised expected depreciation & amortisation to ~A$860m (down A$40m from prior expectations), now forecasts FY‑26 operating costs to rise just under 2% (versus the prior 3% assumption) and is targeting A$50m of sustainable net operating cost reductions per annum after CPI from FY‑27. FY‑26 growth capex is ~A$760m (roughly A$650m to firming projects) including ~A$190m remaining for Liddell and ~A$360m of the A$800m Tomago cost this year, with K2 turbine spend ~A$85m in FY‑26 (+~A$100m in FY‑27); sustaining capex is unchanged. The group said it is largely hedged for FY‑27, flagged strong battery performance (grid‑scale battery EBITDA A$35m in H1; Torrens annualised yield ~24%; targeting 7–11% ungeared post‑tax IRRs), reported operating cash conversion (ex. margin calls) of 93%, near A$1.2bn of cash and undrawn facilities, and expects Tilt proceeds of A$750m (Q3) plus ~A$115m in Aussie Broadband shares from the telco divestment to provide further balance‑sheet flexibility.AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
40
Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Jun 2025 | Jun 2024 | Jun 2023 | Jun 2022 | Jun 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.18B | 13.84B | 13.12B | 14.16B | 13.22B | 10.94B |
| Gross Profit | 1.79B | 2.93B | 3.25B | 1.15B | 1.09B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 1.54B | 1.00B | 2.06B | 1.50B | 2.11B | -1.73B |
| Net Income | -102.72M | -98.00M | 711.00M | -1.26B | 860.00M | -2.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 15.76B | 16.20B | 15.66B | 15.24B | 19.27B | 15.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 306.70M | 332.00M | 971.00M | 376.00M | 341.00M | 370.00M |
| Total Debt | 5.48B | 3.31B | 2.73B | 2.88B | 2.88B | 3.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.03B | 11.35B | 10.23B | 10.12B | 12.75B | 9.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.73B | 4.86B | 5.43B | 5.12B | 6.52B | 5.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -267.46M | -284.00M | 1.40B | 288.00M | 591.00M | 555.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 920.02M | 841.00M | 2.24B | 912.00M | 1.23B | 1.25B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.42B | -1.56B | -926.00M | -729.00M | -885.00M | -937.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 549.31M | 99.00M | -530.00M | -159.00M | -303.00M | -366.00M |
AGL Energy Technical Analysis
Positive
6.13
Price Trends
6.54
Positive
6.25
Positive
6.03
Positive
Market Momentum
<0.01
Negative
55.10
Neutral
99.13
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGLXY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.64, below the 50-day MA of 6.54, and above the 200-day MA of 6.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.13 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGLXY.
AGL Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
65 Neutral | $7.87B | 6.77 | 12.21% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% | |
64 Neutral | $4.01B | 22.16 | ― | 4.09% | 4.90% | -4.42% | |
60 Neutral | $31.65B | 35.94 | 39.65% | 1.11% | 6.40% | 62.12% | |
58 Neutral | $52.39B | 58.07 | 18.91% | 0.56% | 42.77% | -47.64% | |
55 Neutral | $4.54B | 17.34 | -2.11% | 5.02% | 4.67% | -112.83% |
* Utilities Sector Average
AGLXY
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8.14%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.