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AGL Energy Limited (AGLXY)
OTHER OTC:AGLXY
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AGL Energy
(OTC:AGLXY)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
â–¼(-2.12% Downside)
AGL Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, with negative profitability and liquidity concerns being the most impactful factors. While technical indicators show some positive momentum, the valuation is hampered by a negative P/E ratio. The earnings call highlights strategic investments and customer satisfaction improvements, but these are offset by decreased earnings and increased costs.
Positive Factors
Decarbonization Strategy
AGL's commitment to expanding renewable capacity positions it well for future energy transitions, aligning with global sustainability trends and potentially enhancing its competitive edge.
Investment in Flexible Assets
Significant investment in battery technology supports AGL's strategic shift towards more flexible and sustainable energy solutions, potentially improving long-term operational efficiency and market adaptability.
Customer Satisfaction and Growth
High customer satisfaction and growth in customer services indicate strong brand loyalty and potential for sustained revenue growth, supporting long-term business stability.
Negative Factors
Profitability Concerns
Persistent negative profitability metrics suggest ongoing operational inefficiencies, which could hinder AGL's ability to generate sustainable profits and invest in future growth.
Liquidity Challenges
Negative free cash flow growth indicates potential liquidity issues, limiting AGL's ability to reinvest in its business and potentially affecting its financial resilience.
Increased Operating Costs
Rising operating costs, despite strategic investments, may pressure net profits and require careful management to ensure these costs translate into long-term value.
AGL Energy (AGLXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.05B
Dividend Yield5.02%
Average Volume (3M)19.00
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.39
Revenue Growth4.67%
EPS Growth-112.83%
CountryUS
Employees3,735
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength65
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.26
Shares Outstanding672,747,250
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume19
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.58
Price to Book (P/B)1.35
Price to Sales (P/S)0.47
P/FCF Ratio-23.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.35
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.66
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.41
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.70
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)N/A
Revenue Forecast (FY)N/A
AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionAGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates in three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in generating electricity through thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power generation plants; gas storage activities; and the retail sale of electricity, gas, solar, and energy products and services. The company operates electricity generation portfolio of 11,208 megawatts; the Newcastle gas storage facility in New South Wales; the Silver Springs underground gas storage facility in Queensland; natural gas production assets at Camden in New South Wales; and the North Queensland gas assets. It serves 4.2 million customer accounts. AGL Energy Limited was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyAGL Energy generates revenue through multiple channels, primarily through the sale of electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. The company's retail segment is a significant source of income, where it competes in the electricity and gas markets, offering competitive pricing and various energy plans. Additionally, AGL earns revenue from its generation assets, which produce electricity that is sold into the National Electricity Market (NEM). The company is also involved in the development and operation of renewable energy projects, which can provide long-term revenue streams through power purchase agreements (PPAs) and government incentives. Partnerships with technology providers for energy management solutions further bolster its earnings, as AGL expands into innovative services that enhance customer engagement and energy efficiency.
AGL Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant investments in growth and customer satisfaction improvements, but also highlighted challenges such as decreased earnings and lower thermal fleet availability. The company's strategic focus on flexible assets and decarbonization is promising, yet financial pressures from lower profits and increased costs weigh heavily.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Investment in Flexible Assets
Approximately $900 million deployed towards battery developments and strategic investments, including the final investment decision on the 500-megawatt Tomago battery and progress on grid-scale battery developments.
Customer Satisfaction and Growth
Customer satisfaction remains strong at 81.6, with Strategic NPS doubling to a score of plus 8. The Customer Markets business recorded growth in overall customer services, primarily led by telecommunications and Netflix services.
Safety and Employee Engagement
Total injury frequency rate improved to 2 per million hours worked, and employee engagement score increased to 73%.
Decarbonization Strategy
AGL aims to add 12 gigawatts of new renewable and firming capacity by 2035, increasing the interim target from 5 to 6 gigawatts by FY '30, with at least 3 gigawatts of grid-scale batteries.
Negative Updates
Earnings and Profit Decrease
Decrease in EBITDA and underlying net profit after tax compared to FY '24 due to lower wholesale electricity prices and consumer margin compression.
Thermal Fleet Availability
Lower fleet availability in FY '25 due to an additional major planned outage and unplanned outages in the second half, impacting generation volumes.
Statutory Loss
Reported a statutory loss for the year, attributable to lower earnings, increased depreciation, and amortization.
Increased Operating Costs
Higher operating costs driven by the investment in growth and strategic initiatives, impacting net profit after tax.
Company Guidance
During the AGL Energy Full Year Results Briefing Conference Call for fiscal year 2025, key guidance and metrics were discussed. AGL deployed approximately $900 million towards battery developments and strategic investments, including grid-scale battery projects like the 500-megawatt Tomago and Liddell batteries. Customer satisfaction remained high at 81.6, with a strategic NPS doubling to a score of plus 8 and a market churn spread of 4.3 percentage points. The company's total injury frequency rate improved to 2 per million hours worked. Financial results were in line with guidance, with earnings impacted by lower wholesale electricity prices, consumer margin compression, and increased depreciation and amortization. A final ordinary dividend of $0.25 per share was declared, totaling $0.48 per share for the year, equating to a 50% payout ratio. AGL also outlined plans to add 12 gigawatts of new renewable and firming capacity by 2035, with interim targets of 6 gigawatts by FY '30. The guidance for FY '26 includes higher underlying EBITDA due to improved plant availability and customer market margins, offset by higher depreciation and finance costs.AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
AGL Energy's financial performance is challenged by negative profitability metrics and liquidity concerns. Despite slight revenue growth, the company faces operational inefficiencies with negative net profit and gross profit margins. The balance sheet is stable but highlights profitability issues, while the cash flow statement reveals liquidity concerns.Income Statement
AGL Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a slight revenue growth of 1.89% in the latest year, but profitability metrics are concerning. The net profit margin is negative at -0.71%, indicating losses. The gross profit margin has decreased over the years, and EBIT margin has significantly dropped, reflecting operational challenges. These factors suggest pressure on profitability despite revenue growth.Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.68, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but highlights profitability concerns.Cash Flow
AGL Energy's cash flow statement indicates challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is significantly negative, showing a decline in cash available for reinvestment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some cash generation capability, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. These factors point to potential liquidity concerns.| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 14.39B | 13.84B | 13.12B | 14.16B | 13.22B | 10.94B |
| Gross Profit | 2.80B | 2.93B | 3.25B | 1.15B | 1.09B | 1.49B |
| EBITDA | 1.10B | 1.00B | 2.06B | 1.50B | 2.11B | -1.73B |
| Net Income | -98.00M | -98.00M | 711.00M | -1.26B | 860.00M | -2.06B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 16.20B | 16.20B | 15.66B | 15.24B | 19.27B | 15.45B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 332.00M | 332.00M | 971.00M | 376.00M | 341.00M | 370.00M |
| Total Debt | 3.31B | 3.31B | 2.73B | 2.88B | 2.88B | 3.19B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.35B | 11.35B | 10.23B | 10.12B | 12.75B | 9.95B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.86B | 4.86B | 5.43B | 5.12B | 6.52B | 5.50B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -284.00M | -284.00M | 1.40B | 288.00M | 591.00M | 555.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 841.00M | 841.00M | 2.24B | 912.00M | 1.23B | 1.25B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.56B | -1.56B | -926.00M | -729.00M | -885.00M | -937.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 99.00M | 99.00M | -530.00M | -159.00M | -303.00M | -366.00M |
AGL Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
6.13
Price Trends
6.09
Negative
5.89
Positive
6.12
Negative
Market Momentum
<0.01
Positive
42.02
Neutral
0.81
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGLXY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.13 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.21, above the 50-day MA of 6.09, and above the 200-day MA of 6.12, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 0.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGLXY.
AGL Energy Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | $4.04B | 18.79 | 7.62% | 4.09% | 4.90% | -4.42% | |
70 Outperform | $7.99B | 11.99 | 14.87% | 3.92% | 1.10% | 140.04% | |
68 Neutral | $28.53B | 22.01 | 64.19% | 1.11% | 6.40% | 62.12% | |
66 Neutral | $17.65B | 18.10 | 5.60% | 3.62% | 6.62% | 11.55% | |
59 Neutral | $58.47B | 61.23 | 21.63% | 0.56% | 42.77% | -47.64% | |
53 Neutral | $4.05B | -67.02 | -1.75% | 5.02% | 4.67% | -112.83% |
* Utilities Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.