AGL Energy (AGLXY) AI Stock Analysis

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AGL Energy

(OTC:AGLXY)

Rating:44Neutral

Price Target:

$5.50

▲(0.00% Upside)

AGL Energy's overall stock score reflects significant financial and technical challenges. The company's profitability and cash flow issues are major concerns, compounded by bearish technical indicators. While strategic investments and a high dividend yield offer some positives, they are overshadowed by financial pressures and negative market momentum.

AGL Energy (AGLXY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$3.69B

Dividend Yield6.91%

Average Volume (3M)31.00

Price to Earnings (P/E)29.3

Beta (1Y)0.23

Revenue Growth4.67%

EPS Growth-112.83%

CountryUS

Employees3,735

SectorUtilities

Sector Strength74

IndustryIndependent Power Producers

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.26

Shares Outstanding672,747,250

10 Day Avg. Volume36

30 Day Avg. Volume31

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG RatioN/A

Price to Book (P/B)N/A

Price to Sales (P/S)N/A

P/FCF RatioN/A

Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.62

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.41

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.48

Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.20

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$5.50

Price Target Upside0.00%

Rating ConsensusHold

Number of Analyst Covering1

AGL Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAGL Energy Limited supplies energy and other services to residential, small and large businesses, and wholesale customers in Australia. It operates in three segments: Customer Markets, Integrated Energy, and Investments. The company engages in generating electricity through thermal, hydro, wind, and solar power generation plants; gas storage activities; and the retail sale of electricity, gas, solar, and energy products and services. The company operates electricity generation portfolio of 11,208 megawatts; the Newcastle gas storage facility in New South Wales; the Silver Springs underground gas storage facility in Queensland; natural gas production assets at Camden in New South Wales; and the North Queensland gas assets. It serves 4.2 million customer accounts. AGL Energy Limited was founded in 1837 and is based in Sydney, Australia.

How the Company Makes MoneyAGL Energy makes money primarily through its energy retailing operations, where it sells electricity and gas to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. This segment is the largest contributor to its revenue. The company also earns income from electricity generation by operating a diverse portfolio of power plants, including coal, gas, wind, and other renewable energy sources. Additionally, AGL engages in wholesale energy trading, leveraging market price fluctuations to optimize its profitability. Strategic partnerships and investments in renewable energy projects also play a role in sustaining and expanding its revenue streams, as the company transitions to more sustainable energy solutions.

AGL Energy Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: -17.42%|

Next Earnings Date:Feb 11, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The earnings call presented a mixed picture with significant investments in growth and customer satisfaction improvements, but also highlighted challenges such as decreased earnings and lower thermal fleet availability. The company's strategic focus on flexible assets and decarbonization is promising, yet financial pressures from lower profits and increased costs weigh heavily.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Investment in Flexible Assets

Approximately $900 million deployed towards battery developments and strategic investments, including the final investment decision on the 500-megawatt Tomago battery and progress on grid-scale battery developments.

Customer Satisfaction and Growth

Customer satisfaction remains strong at 81.6, with Strategic NPS doubling to a score of plus 8. The Customer Markets business recorded growth in overall customer services, primarily led by telecommunications and Netflix services.

Safety and Employee Engagement

Total injury frequency rate improved to 2 per million hours worked, and employee engagement score increased to 73%.

Decarbonization Strategy

AGL aims to add 12 gigawatts of new renewable and firming capacity by 2035, increasing the interim target from 5 to 6 gigawatts by FY '30, with at least 3 gigawatts of grid-scale batteries.

Negative Updates

Earnings and Profit Decrease

Decrease in EBITDA and underlying net profit after tax compared to FY '24 due to lower wholesale electricity prices and consumer margin compression.

Thermal Fleet Availability

Lower fleet availability in FY '25 due to an additional major planned outage and unplanned outages in the second half, impacting generation volumes.

Statutory Loss

Reported a statutory loss for the year, attributable to lower earnings, increased depreciation, and amortization.

Increased Operating Costs

Higher operating costs driven by the investment in growth and strategic initiatives, impacting net profit after tax.

Company Guidance

During the AGL Energy Full Year Results Briefing Conference Call for fiscal year 2025, key guidance and metrics were discussed. AGL deployed approximately $900 million towards battery developments and strategic investments, including grid-scale battery projects like the 500-megawatt Tomago and Liddell batteries. Customer satisfaction remained high at 81.6, with a strategic NPS doubling to a score of plus 8 and a market churn spread of 4.3 percentage points. The company's total injury frequency rate improved to 2 per million hours worked. Financial results were in line with guidance, with earnings impacted by lower wholesale electricity prices, consumer margin compression, and increased depreciation and amortization. A final ordinary dividend of $0.25 per share was declared, totaling $0.48 per share for the year, equating to a 50% payout ratio. AGL also outlined plans to add 12 gigawatts of new renewable and firming capacity by 2035, with interim targets of 6 gigawatts by FY '30. The guidance for FY '26 includes higher underlying EBITDA due to improved plant availability and customer market margins, offset by higher depreciation and finance costs.

AGL Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AGL Energy faces profitability and cash flow challenges despite slight revenue growth. Negative net profit margin and declining gross profit margin indicate operational inefficiencies. The balance sheet is stable but highlights profitability issues, while the cash flow statement reveals liquidity concerns.

Income Statement

Neutral

AGL Energy's income statement shows a mixed performance. The company has experienced a slight revenue growth of 1.89% in the latest year, but profitability metrics are concerning. The net profit margin is negative at -0.71%, indicating losses. The gross profit margin has decreased over the years, and EBIT margin has significantly dropped, reflecting operational challenges. These factors suggest pressure on profitability despite revenue growth.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

The balance sheet reveals a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is manageable at 0.68, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. However, the return on equity is negative, reflecting the company's inability to generate profits from shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is stable, suggesting a reasonable proportion of equity financing. Overall, the balance sheet shows stability but highlights profitability concerns.

Cash Flow

Negative

AGL Energy's cash flow statement indicates challenges in cash generation. The free cash flow growth rate is significantly negative, showing a decline in cash available for reinvestment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, suggesting some cash generation capability, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues. These factors point to potential liquidity concerns.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	14.53B	13.84B	13.12B	14.16B	13.22B	10.94B
Gross Profit	4.03B	2.93B	3.25B	1.15B	1.09B	1.49B
EBITDA	1.87B	1.00B	2.06B	1.50B	2.11B	-1.73B
Net Income	232.00M	-98.00M	711.00M	-1.26B	860.00M	-2.06B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	15.17B	16.20B	15.66B	15.24B	19.27B	15.45B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	253.00M	332.00M	971.00M	376.00M	341.00M	370.00M
Total Debt	2.81B	3.31B	2.73B	2.88B	2.88B	3.19B
Total Liabilities	9.90B	11.35B	10.23B	10.12B	12.75B	9.95B
Stockholders Equity	5.27B	4.86B	5.43B	5.12B	6.52B	5.50B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	767.00M	-284.00M	1.40B	288.00M	591.00M	555.00M
Operating Cash Flow	1.90B	841.00M	2.24B	912.00M	1.23B	1.25B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.41B	-1.56B	-926.00M	-729.00M	-885.00M	-937.00M
Financing Cash Flow	-395.00M	99.00M	-530.00M	-159.00M	-303.00M	-366.00M

AGL Energy Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price5.50

Price Trends

50DMA

6.30

Negative

100DMA

6.49

Negative

200DMA

6.68

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.24

Positive

RSI

28.53

Positive

STOCH

3.08

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGLXY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 5.5 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.08, below the 50-day MA of 6.30, and below the 200-day MA of 6.68, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.24 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 28.53 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 3.08 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGLXY.

AGL Energy Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (67)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VST	78 Outperform	$64.40B	30.22	45.85%	0.47%	46.90%	388.66%
Sector *	67 Neutral	$17.62B	18.43	5.29%	3.63%	7.33%	12.21%
PAM	66 Neutral	$3.62B	7.77	14.22%	―	6.57%	38.25%
AES	65 Neutral	$9.61B	9.52	21.17%	5.19%	-3.19%	30.48%
ENIC	61 Neutral	$4.88B	33.72	2.89%	6.46%	-19.56%	-83.31%
NRG	57 Neutral	$28.00B	61.40	17.66%	1.19%	2.09%	-74.13%
AGLXY	44 Neutral	$3.69B	29.29	-1.75%	6.91%	4.67%	-112.83%

* Utilities Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AGLXY

AGL Energy

5.50

-2.14

-28.01%

NRG

NRG Energy

146.23

67.19

85.01%

PAM

Pampa Energia SA

66.34

14.37

27.65%

AES

13.34

-2.90

-17.86%

VST

Vistra Energy

195.12

113.19

138.15%

ENIC

Enel Chile SA

3.46

0.82

31.06%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 20, 2025