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ageas (AGESY)
OTHER OTC:AGESY
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ageas
(OTC:AGESY)
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Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$80.00
▲(14.91% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:10/31/25
Ageas's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call results and attractive valuation metrics. The company's financial performance is solid, with notable improvements in revenue and profitability. Technical analysis indicates some short-term bearish signals, but the stock's valuation and positive earnings outlook provide a strong foundation for future growth.
Positive Factors
Improved Free Cash Flow
Turning FCF positive to €642m marks a durable improvement in cash generation that supports upstreaming cash, funding working capital, and paying dividends without relying on external financing. Sustained FCF strengthens financial flexibility and capacity to execute strategy and buy growth.
Strong Solvency Capital
A Solvency II ratio materially above neutral (240% reported, 205% pro forma) provides a durable capital buffer against underwriting and market shocks, supports regulatory compliance, enables opportunistic M&A or reinsurance actions, and underpins consistent shareholder distributions over the cycle.
Strategic Product Mix Shift in Asia
Moving Asian life sales toward participating, capital-efficient products reduces sensitivity to interest rates and long-duration liabilities. This structural shift improves capital efficiency, lowers hedging costs and supports steadier margins and returns across economic cycles in a key growth region.
Negative Factors
UK Non-Life Pricing Pressure
Sustained premium compression in the UK motor and household markets, coupled with persistent claims inflation, threatens underwriting margins. As a major non-life market, prolonged adverse pricing dynamics could raise the combined ratio and weaken long-term profitability unless risk selection and rates improve.
Higher Expected Tax Rate in China
A structurally higher tax rate in China reduces after-tax earnings and cash generation from a fast-growing market. Over time this lowers the net return on capital deployed in Asia and can curb cash upstream and shareholder distributions unless offset by higher gross margins or scale efficiencies.
Declining Equity Ratio
A lower equity ratio indicates increased leverage relative to assets; while leverage remains manageable (debt/equity ~0.61), a shrinking equity base reduces shock-absorbing capacity. Over the medium term this can constrain strategic flexibility, raise funding risk, and pressure ratings if volatility returns.
ageas (AGESY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.48B
Dividend Yield4.98%
Average Volume (3M)2.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.2
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth-1.56%
EPS Growth8.97%
CountryUS
Employees16,797
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.77
Shares Outstanding198,938,300
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.44
Price to Book (P/B)1.11
Price to Sales (P/S)1.01
P/FCF Ratio13.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.87
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.46
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.46
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)9.31
Revenue Forecast (FY)$10.55B
ageas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Descriptionageas SA/NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in insurance business in Europe and Asia. The company primarily offers property, casualty, and life insurance products, as well as pension products; and reinsurance products. Its life insurance products include risks related to the life and death of individuals; and non-life insurance products comprise accident and health, motor, fire, and other insurance products, as well as other damages to property covering the risk of property losses or claims liabilities. The company serves private individuals, as well as small, medium-sized, and large companies through independent brokers and the bank channels. ageas SA/NV was founded in 1824 and is headquartered in Brussels, Belgium.
How the Company Makes MoneyAgeas generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from premiums collected from its insurance policies. The company earns money by underwriting various types of insurance products, charging premiums based on risk assessment and policy terms. In addition to premium income, Ageas also generates revenue from investment income derived from its portfolio of investments, including bonds, equities, and real estate assets. Significant partnerships with banks and financial institutions enhance its distribution capabilities, allowing for cross-selling of insurance products. Furthermore, Ageas benefits from economies of scale and operational efficiencies, which contribute positively to its profitability.
ageas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial update: strong top‑line inflows (+9% group; +16% Non‑Life), materially improved net operating result (above EUR 1.655bn), robust cash upstreams (+18% to EUR 949m) and strengthened capital positions (Solvency II ~211%, equity EUR 17.5bn). Strategic M&A (Saga, esure, AG) and upgraded targets underpin confidence. Headwinds include one‑off tax benefits in China (EUR 300m), product mix shifts that may pressure margins, reliance on a large reinsurance deal that is not fully recurring, increased equity exposure in Asia, and ongoing regional challenges (U.K. claims inflation, Türkiye). Overall, positive results and upgraded guidance outweigh the transitory or manageable negatives.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strategic M&A and Market Positioning
Closed Saga (July) and esure (September) in the U.K., strengthening Ageas into a top-3 U.K. personal lines insurer; acquisition of remaining stake in AG (closing expected Q2 2026) to secure full ownership of core Belgium market.
Group Inflows Growth
Group inflows increased by more than 9% at constant FX; Non‑Life inflows rose 16% (growth across all segments and product lines) and Europe Life PVNBP grew 17%, driven by Türkiye.
Strong Net Operating Result
Net operating result exceeded EUR 1.655 billion (above guidance); Non‑Life net operating result up 21% to EUR 548 million; Life net operating result EUR 1.259 billion, up 39% YoY.
Excellent Non‑Life Underwriting Performance
Group combined ratio of 92.5% (benefited in part from benign weather in Belgium) and Reinsurance third‑party combined ratio at 76.5%.
Healthy Cash Generation and Upstream Guidance
Recurring cash upstreams EUR 949 million in 2025, 18% above prior year and above guided EUR 850–900 million; management expects significantly higher upstreams of EUR 1.2 billion in 2026.
Dividend and Shareholder Remuneration
Proposed total gross cash dividend EUR 3.75 per share (growth >7% vs prior year); interim EUR 1.50 already paid, remaining EUR 2.25 payable in June; shareholder remuneration target upgraded to > EUR 2.2 billion over the cycle.
Capital Strength and Balance Sheet
Solvency II scope ratio around 211% (non‑SII 244%); comprehensive equity increased to EUR 17.5 billion; cash position EUR 1.45 billion supported by RT1 issue in December.
Operational Capital Generation
Operational capital generation EUR 1.9 billion (Solvency II entities EUR 1.2 billion, +7% YoY); operational free capital generation EUR 793 million.
Life Business Quality and New Business Metrics
Life operating insurance service result up 4% YoY; Belgium Life net operating result +5% with guaranteed margin 102 bps; Group Life new business margin 7.9%, Belgium NB margin improved 110 bps to 6.8%; CSM positive operating movement EUR 170 million (1.8%).
Reinsurance Inflows and Growth
Reinsurance inflows reached EUR 905 million (including Triglav/Prima EUR 630 million); excluding that deal, inflows were EUR 275 million (+29% vs EUR 213 million at end‑2024); renewals for 1/1/26 showed >20% increase on renewed business.
Negative Updates
One‑off China Tax Benefit
A one‑off deferred tax benefit of EUR 300 million recognized in China due to tax regime change (IFRS17/9 transition), boosting Life net operating result — this is non‑recurring and inflates 2025 comparatives.
Shift in China Product Mix and Margin Pressure
Strategic shift toward participating products in China (70%–80% APE mix by comments) improves capital efficiency but typically carries lower margins; group new business margin and future Life margins may be pressured by this mix change.
Reliance on Non‑Recurring Reinsurance Deals
Large reinsurance inflow from Triglav/Prima (EUR 630 million) materially boosted reinsurance inflows and results; Prima contribution to profit was small (EUR 7m in 2025, ~EUR 8m expected in 2026) and may be phased out over the strategic cycle, raising sustainability questions.
Asia Tax Rate Uncertainty
Guidance for Mainland China tax rate assumed between 0%–10% (midpoint ~5%) depending on deductibility of long‑term bond coupons; future effective tax rate remains sensitive to portfolio composition and deductibility assumptions.
Decreased Contribution from Non‑Solvency II Entities
Non‑SII entities contributed EUR 892 million (decrease versus prior year); general account consumed EUR 187 million—impacted by interest rate environment and lower new business contribution from China.
Increased Equity Exposure in Asia
Equity exposure in Asia was rebuilt in 2025 (after reductions in 2024) and market gains increased absolute exposure, resulting in a slightly higher risk charge that affects solvency sensitivity.
U.K. Competitive and Claims Inflation Pressure
U.K. claims inflation remains high; Ageas applied limited tariff increases (~2% in motor/property) while market pricing softened 10%–12%, indicating potential profitability pressure despite top‑line growth from acquisitions.
Country‑Specific Challenges
Türkiye Non‑Life faces difficult inflationary environment and motor challenges (profitability limited); expected normalisation of benign weather in Belgium could remove some underwriting tailwinds seen in 2025.
Margin Volatility and Timing Effects
Management warns of volatility in China margins and delayed impact of automatic interest rate mechanism, meaning H2 margins may not be representative and 2026 results have timing/lag risks.
Company Guidance
Management guided to significantly higher cash upstream of €1.2bn for 2026 and a net operating result “well above” €1.5bn (assuming a normal catastrophe load and aiming for a Group combined ratio below 93%); they reiterated Elevate27 targets of holding free cash flow >€2.6bn and shareholder remuneration >€2.2bn with average EPS growth of 6–8%, proposed a total dividend of €3.75/share (interim €1.50 paid, remaining €2.25 to be paid in June) (>7% growth), and noted 2025 upstreams of €949m (up 18% y/y). Other guidance/metrics included expecting China tax on the IFRS 17/9 base of 0–10% (c.5% mid‑point) after a €300m one‑off deferred tax benefit, Solvency II scope ratio ~211% (non‑SII 244%), operational capital generation €1.9bn (Solvency II €1.2bn, +7% y/y; non‑SII €892m; general account -€187m), operational free capital generation €793m, and confirmation that M&A (esure integration with >£100m annual synergies by 2028; AG closing H1'26 including FY25 AG dividend) will support the 2026 cash outlook.ageas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Ageas has shown commendable improvements across its financial statements. The income statement reflects strong revenue and profitability growth, while the balance sheet maintains a stable leverage position. The cash flow statement highlights improved cash generating abilities, although there is room for further optimization. The company is well-positioned for future growth, though it should remain vigilant in managing leverage and enhancing cash flow efficiency.Income Statement
The company demonstrated solid revenue growth of 12.62% from 2023 to 2024, reversing a prior declining trend. Gross profit margin remained high at 100%, indicating efficiency in cost management. Net profit margin improved to 13.19% in 2024 from 12.66% in 2023, showcasing enhanced profitability. However, the company experienced fluctuations in EBIT and EBITDA margins, with the latter increasing significantly to 25.61% in 2024 from 7.40% in 2023. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive trajectory in revenue and profitability with some volatility in operational efficiency.75
Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.61 for 2024, indicating manageable leverage levels. Return on equity increased to 14.42% in 2024, reflecting improved returns for shareholders. However, the equity ratio decreased slightly to 7.87%, suggesting a marginally higher reliance on debt financing. While the balance sheet is stable, there is a cautious note on the declining equity base relative to total assets.65
Positive
Cash Flow
The company reported a substantial improvement in free cash flow, turning positive to 642 million in 2024 from negative in 2023, indicating enhanced cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio increased to 0.93, reflecting better cash conversion. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.57 suggests room for improvement in translating earnings into free cash flow. The overall cash flow position has strengthened, but the company should focus on sustaining this positive trend.68
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.61B | 8.48B | 7.88B | 4.89B | 12.91B | 11.57B |
| Gross Profit | 8.61B | 8.48B | 6.94B | 2.82B | 11.69B | 10.43B |
| EBITDA | 0.00 | 2.17B | 2.04B | 2.03B | 2.19B | 2.50B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.12B | 953.00M | 1.10B | 845.00M | 1.14B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 99.48B | 98.45B | 96.69B | 100.30B | 111.14B | 111.42B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.51B | 58.96B | 58.78B | 42.14B | 57.19B | 61.22B |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 4.75B | 4.58B | 4.44B | 4.73B | 4.71B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.34B | 89.66B | 88.19B | 91.67B | 96.97B | 97.64B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.08B | 7.75B | 7.42B | 6.97B | 11.91B | 11.55B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.58B | 642.00M | -115.00M | -752.00M | -1.21B | -1.69B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.83B | 1.04B | 124.00M | -588.00M | -1.06B | -1.33B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.00M | 93.00M | 1.35B | 1.03B | 1.44B | 635.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -60.00M | -952.00M | -868.00M | -1.13B | -684.00M | -804.00M |
ageas Technical Analysis
Positive
69.62
Price Trends
71.41
Positive
68.77
Positive
67.49
Positive
Market Momentum
1.03
Positive
56.49
Neutral
76.28
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGESY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 73.84, below the 50-day MA of 71.41, and above the 200-day MA of 67.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.49 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGESY.
ageas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $38.85B | 10.58 | 21.66% | 1.55% | 7.11% | 22.52% | |
73 Outperform | $20.69B | 18.17 | 10.32% | 3.44% | 12.33% | ― | |
73 Outperform | $14.48B | 7.23 | 14.29% | 4.98% | -1.56% | 8.97% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
67 Neutral | $11.36B | 8.28 | 14.42% | 5.77% | -6.19% | ― | |
67 Neutral | $43.19B | 14.83 | 7.40% | 2.02% | -23.02% | 52.43% | |
46 Neutral | $11.28B | -8.33 | -182.66% | 2.15% | 7.70% | -155.12% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGESY
ageas
74.27
21.17
39.88%
AEG
Aegon
7.50
1.46
24.15%
AIG
American International Group
80.49
-0.37
-0.46%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
140.83
22.53
19.04%
PFG
Principal Financial
95.42
10.09
11.83%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
40.22
-12.95
-24.35%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.