ageas (AGESY)
OTHER OTC:AGESY
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ageas
(OTC:AGESY)
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Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
$90.00
▲(29.27% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/21/26
The score is driven mainly by attractive valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield) and strong technical trend signals. Financial performance is solid but capped by margin and cash-flow volatility and rising leverage. Earnings call guidance supports the outlook, though sustainability risks from one-offs and regional pressures temper the score.
Positive Factors
Improved cash generation
A sustained step-up to ~€2.6bn free cash flow in 2025 materially strengthens Ageas’s ability to fund dividends, upstreams and M&A without heavy balance sheet strain. Better recurring cashflow raises durable capital flexibility under Solvency constraints and supports shareholder remuneration targets.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage trend
An upward leverage trajectory reduces financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to adverse underwriting or market shocks. If earnings or cash upstreams weaken, higher debt amplifies refinancing and solvency risk, constraining capital deployment and potentially forcing more conservative underwriting or slower buyback/dividend policies.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved cash generation
A sustained step-up to ~€2.6bn free cash flow in 2025 materially strengthens Ageas’s ability to fund dividends, upstreams and M&A without heavy balance sheet strain. Better recurring cashflow raises durable capital flexibility under Solvency constraints and supports shareholder remuneration targets.
Read all positive factors
ageas (AGESY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$16.61B
Dividend Yield4.98%
Average Volume (3M)2.61K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth5.46%
EPS Growth56.76%
CountryUS
Employees16,797
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Diversified
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)6.26
Shares Outstanding213,938,300
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,608
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.16
Price to Book (P/B)1.19
Price to Sales (P/S)1.24
P/FCF Ratio4.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.08
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.08
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.08
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)9.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)$11.03B
ageas Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
ageas SA/NV, together with its subsidiaries, engages in insurance business in Europe and Asia. The company primarily offers property, casualty, and life insurance products, as well as pension products; and reinsurance products. Its life insurance ...
How the Company Makes Money
Ageas makes money mainly by underwriting insurance and investing the premiums it collects. (1) Underwriting income: In non-life insurance, Ageas earns premiums and pays claims and operating expenses; profitability depends on pricing, risk selectio...
ageas Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 25, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely positive operational and financial update: strong top‑line inflows (+9% group; +16% Non‑Life), materially improved net operating result (above EUR 1.655bn), robust cash upstreams (+18% to EUR 949m) and strengthened capital positions (Solvency II ~211%, equity EUR 17.5bn). Strategic M&A (Saga, esure, AG) and upgraded targets underpin confidence. Headwinds include one‑off tax benefits in China (EUR 300m), product mix shifts that may pressure margins, reliance on a large reinsurance deal that is not fully recurring, increased equity exposure in Asia, and ongoing regional challenges (U.K. claims inflation, Türkiye). Overall, positive results and upgraded guidance outweigh the transitory or manageable negatives.Positive Updates
Strategic M&A and Market Positioning
Closed Saga (July) and esure (September) in the U.K., strengthening Ageas into a top-3 U.K. personal lines insurer; acquisition of remaining stake in AG (closing expected Q2 2026) to secure full ownership of core Belgium market.
Negative Updates
One‑off China Tax Benefit
A one‑off deferred tax benefit of EUR 300 million recognized in China due to tax regime change (IFRS17/9 transition), boosting Life net operating result — this is non‑recurring and inflates 2025 comparatives.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic M&A and Market Positioning
Closed Saga (July) and esure (September) in the U.K., strengthening Ageas into a top-3 U.K. personal lines insurer; acquisition of remaining stake in AG (closing expected Q2 2026) to secure full ownership of core Belgium market.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided to significantly higher cash upstream of €1.2bn for 2026 and a net operating result “well above” €1.5bn (assuming a normal catastrophe load and aiming for a Group combined ratio below 93%); they reiterated Elevate27 targets of holding free cash flow >€2.6bn and shareholder remuneration >€2.2bn with average EPS growth of 6–8%, proposed a total dividend of €3.75/share (interim €1.50 paid, remaining €2.25 to be paid in June) (>7% growth), and noted 2025 upstreams of €949m (up 18% y/y). Other guidance/metrics included expecting China tax on the IFRS 17/9 base of 0–10% (c.5% mid‑point) after a €300m one‑off deferred tax benefit, Solvency II scope ratio ~211% (non‑SII 244%), operational capital generation €1.9bn (Solvency II €1.2bn, +7% y/y; non‑SII €892m; general account -€187m), operational free capital generation €793m, and confirmation that M&A (esure integration with >£100m annual synergies by 2028; AG closing H1'26 including FY25 AG dividend) will support the 2026 cash outlook.ageas Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 8.61B | 9.04B | 8.48B | 7.88B | 4.89B | 12.91B |
| Gross Profit | 8.61B | 7.91B | 8.48B | 6.94B | 2.82B | 11.69B |
| EBITDA | 0.00 | 2.71B | 2.17B | 2.04B | 2.03B | 2.19B |
| Net Income | 1.15B | 1.64B | 1.12B | 953.00M | 1.10B | 845.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 99.48B | 107.07B | 98.45B | 96.69B | 100.30B | 111.14B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 60.51B | 62.26B | 58.96B | 58.78B | 42.14B | 57.19B |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 7.13B | 4.75B | 4.58B | 4.44B | 4.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 90.34B | 95.57B | 89.66B | 88.19B | 91.67B | 96.97B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.08B | 9.44B | 7.75B | 7.42B | 6.97B | 11.91B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.58B | 2.58B | 642.00M | -115.00M | -752.00M | -1.21B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.83B | 2.90B | 1.04B | 124.00M | -588.00M | -1.06B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -412.00M | -2.69B | 93.00M | 1.35B | 1.03B | 1.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -60.00M | 863.00M | -952.00M | -868.00M | -1.13B | -684.00M |
ageas Technical Analysis
Positive
69.62
Price Trends
73.18
Positive
71.12
Positive
69.11
Positive
Market Momentum
2.42
Negative
72.96
Negative
86.24
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGESY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 69.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 74.82, below the 50-day MA of 73.18, and above the 200-day MA of 69.11, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.96 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.24 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AGESY.
ageas Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $36.59B | 10.99 | 22.01% | 1.55% | 6.90% | 41.67% | |
75 Outperform | $16.61B | ― | 10.98% | 4.98% | 5.46% | 56.76% | |
73 Outperform | $21.94B | 12.02 | 13.25% | 3.44% | -1.98% | 48.93% | |
71 Outperform | $41.19B | 13.27 | 7.50% | 2.02% | -2.31% | 26.43% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $12.59B | 6.38 | 11.63% | 5.77% | 33.06% | 50.47% | |
56 Neutral | $12.31B | 4.20 | -219.79% | 2.15% | -17.18% | -175.55% |
* Financial Sector Average
AGESY
ageas
79.12
18.35
30.20%
AEG
Aegon
8.17
1.81
28.38%
AIG
American International Group
77.69
-2.20
-2.76%
HIG
Hartford Insurance
133.49
7.82
6.22%
PFG
Principal Financial
101.55
26.89
36.01%
EQH
Equitable Holdings
43.72
-6.02
-12.10%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.