Agco (AGCO) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $8.03B
• Dividend Yield: 1.1%
• Average Volume (3M): 806.70K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 20.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.97
• Revenue Growth: -20.09%
• EPS Growth: 121.28%
• Country: US
• Employees: 24,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Agricultural - Machinery
• EPS (TTM): 2.17
• Shares Outstanding: 72,400,560
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 655,217
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 806,697
• PEG Ratio: -0.04
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.82
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.77
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.49
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.23
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.93
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 9.89
• 1Y Price Target: $126.33
• Price Target Upside: 13.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 13
• EPS Forecast (FY): 5.82
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $10.55B

• Rating: 66 Neutral
• Price Target: $138.00 ▲(24.40% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/07/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/07/26

AGCO scores as a balanced setup: financial performance is solid but notably cyclical with rising leverage and uneven cash-flow momentum, which caps the score. Valuation is supportive with a low P/E, while technicals are mixed (near-term weakness but longer-term trend still positive). Earnings-call guidance underscores cost-savings and cash conversion, but industry softness and tariff/margin headwinds remain meaningful near-term risks.

Positive Factors

Aftermarket / Parts Resilience

High-margin parts and aftermarket sales ($1.9B FY, $440M Q4) create recurring revenue that is less cyclical than new-equipment sales. This stabilizes margins and cash flow, supports service-led customer relationships, and provides durable profit leverage during equipment demand troughs.

Strong Free Cash Flow Generation

Record FCF ($740M) and management targeting 75–100% FCF conversion underpin financial flexibility: funds capex, buybacks, debt paydown and R&D without relying on equity. Consistent cash conversion improves resilience across the agricultural cycle and enables capital allocation discipline.

Precision Ag (PTX) Momentum

Rapid PTX expansion (14 products, 70+ dealers, ~$860M revenue) shifts revenue mix toward higher-tech, retrofit and subscription-like offerings. This strengthens competitive differentiation, supports higher aftermarket attachment, and positions AGCO for structural long-term growth in precision agriculture.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

Material rise in leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases interest and refinancing risk during cyclical downturns. With episodic revenue volatility, higher debt limits ability to invest or absorb prolonged softness, making capital allocation and covenant risk more acute over the medium term.

North America Demand & Profitability Weakness

Heavy exposure to North America’s large-ag market means prolonged regional weakness drives under-absorption, negative operating margins in NA, and production pullbacks. Given NA’s profit share, sustained demand softness materially compresses company-wide margins and cash generation for multiple quarters.

Tariff & Cost Headwinds

Incremental tariffs (~$65M) plus higher engineering spend (~$50M) are structural margin pressures that can persist until policy or cost offsets change. These inflate unit costs and compress margins despite price actions, making margin recovery slower and increasing reliance on efficiency programs to sustain profitability.

Agco Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

AGCO Corporation manufactures and distributes agricultural equipment and related replacement parts worldwide. It offers horsepower tractors for row crop production, soil cultivation, planting, land leveling, seeding, and commercial hay operations; utility tractors for small- and medium-sized farms, as well as for dairy, livestock, orchards, and vineyards; and compact tractors for small farms, specialty agricultural industries, landscaping, equestrian, and residential uses. The company also provides grain storage bins and related drying and handling equipment systems; seed-processing systems; swine and poultry feed storage and delivery; ventilation and watering systems; and egg production systems and broiler production equipment. In addition, it offers round and rectangular balers, loader wagons, self-propelled windrowers, forage harvesters, disc mowers, spreaders, rakes, tedders, and mower conditioners for harvesting and packaging vegetative feeds used in the beef cattle, dairy, horse, and renewable fuel industries. Further, the company provides implements, including disc harrows leveling seed beds and mixing chemicals with the soils; heavy tillage to break up soil and mix crop residue into topsoil; field cultivators that prepare smooth seed bed and destroy weeds; drills for small grain seeding; planters and other planting equipment; and loaders. Additionally, it offers combines for harvesting grain crops, such as corn, wheat, soybeans, and rice; and application equipment, such as self-propelled, three- and four-wheeled vehicles, and related equipment for liquid and dry fertilizers and crop protection chemicals, and for after crops emerge from the ground, as well as produces diesel engines, gears, and generating sets. The company markets its products under the Challenger, Fendt, GSI, Massey Ferguson, and Valtra brands through a network of independent dealers and distributors. AGCO Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Duluth, Georgia.

How the Company Makes Money

AGCO generates revenue primarily through the sale of agricultural equipment and machinery. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of new tractors, combines, and implements, which are often sold through a network of independent dealers and distributors. Additionally, AGCO earns income from parts sales, aftermarket services, and support, which provide ongoing revenue as customers maintain their equipment over time. The company also engages in financing solutions for its customers, which can further enhance revenue through interest income. Significant partnerships with suppliers and technology firms enhance AGCO's product offerings, while its global presence allows it to capitalize on various agricultural markets worldwide.

Agco Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Long-term revenue scale and generally healthy margins are tempered by sharp cyclicality: revenue fell in 2024 and 2025 after 2023 strength, 2024 included a sizable loss, and cash-flow momentum has been inconsistent. Balance-sheet risk has increased with leverage rising materially since 2023 (debt-to-equity ~0.33 to ~0.63 by 2025).

Income Statement

Revenue has grown over the long run (2020–2025), but the last two years show clear volatility: revenue declined in 2024 and again in 2025 after a strong 2023. Profitability is generally solid with gross margin in the mid‑20% range, and 2025 returned to healthy earnings (about 7% net margin), but 2024 posted a sizable loss and unusually weak operating profitability versus other years—highlighting cyclicality and earnings instability.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate overall, but it has risen meaningfully since 2023: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.33 (2023) to ~0.63 (2025), increasing financial risk if industry conditions soften. Equity has also improved versus 2024, supporting a return to positive returns in 2025, though the swing from strong positive returns (2021–2023) to negative (2024) underscores that balance-sheet resilience is being tested in down cycles.

Cash Flow

Cash generation remains positive, with operating cash flow and free cash flow both positive in 2025, and free cash flow covering a large portion of 2025 earnings (roughly three-quarters). However, free cash flow growth has been weak and inconsistent (down in 2024 and sharply down again in 2025), and cash conversion has not been consistently strong year-to-year, signaling higher volatility in underlying cash earnings.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.08B	11.66B	14.41B	12.65B	11.14B
Gross Profit	2.50B	2.84B	3.74B	2.96B	2.51B
EBITDA	996.00M	58.60M	1.69B	1.42B	1.25B
Net Income	726.50M	-424.80M	1.17B	889.60M	897.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.93B	11.19B	11.42B	10.10B	9.18B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	861.80M	612.00M	595.00M	787.50M	882.20M
Total Debt	2.69B	2.78B	1.53B	1.59B	1.62B
Total Liabilities	7.36B	7.15B	6.76B	6.22B	5.74B
Stockholders Equity	4.27B	3.74B	4.66B	3.88B	3.42B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	740.20M	296.60M	585.00M	449.90M	413.10M
Operating Cash Flow	988.10M	689.90M	1.10B	838.20M	682.90M
Investing Cash Flow	-28.30M	-1.65B	-545.70M	-496.80M	-311.10M
Financing Cash Flow	-729.20M	1.05B	-671.70M	-407.00M	-539.50M

Agco Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 110.93
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AGCO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 110.93 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 126.68, below the 50-day MA of 123.01, and below the 200-day MA of 110.98, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -3.51 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.52 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 6.81 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for AGCO.

Agco Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CAT	75 Outperform	$320.42B	30.12	45.10%	0.98%	-1.51%	-9.69%
DE	73 Outperform	$153.31B	54.83	18.93%	1.34%	-11.66%	-27.80%
TEX	67 Neutral	$6.58B	15.89	11.16%	1.24%	4.60%	-65.73%
AGCO	66 Neutral	$8.03B	20.15	17.36%	1.10%	-20.09%	121.28%
OSK	66 Neutral	$9.02B	12.46	14.57%	1.56%	-2.28%	-0.53%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
CNH	59 Neutral	$12.51B	22.56	6.58%	2.67%	-18.10%	-65.24%

Agco Corporate Events

AGCO Updates 2026 Executive Annual Incentive Plan Framework

On March 3, 2026, AGCO’s Talent and Compensation Committee approved amendments to the company’s 2026 Annual Incentive Plan, revising individual award opportunities, performance metrics and their weightings to align with the current annual incentive program design. The changes also modernize the plan in light of legal and regulatory developments by eliminating individual award limits tied to repealed Section 162(m) rules, broadening the committee’s discretion to adjust metrics and payouts, and explicitly subjecting awards to recoupment under AGCO’s clawback policies, which could affect how executive incentives are structured and governed.

These updates reflect AGCO’s shift away from legacy tax-driven plan provisions toward a more flexible, governance-focused incentive framework that better matches current regulatory expectations and internal compensation strategy. For stakeholders, the revised plan may influence executive behavior and risk management by tightening alignment between pay, performance measurement and potential clawbacks, reinforcing oversight of incentive outcomes.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGCO) stock is a Buy with a $149.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agco stock, see the AGCO Stock Forecast page.

AGCO Adds Agriscience Leader James Collins to Board

On March 2, 2026, AGCO’s board voted to expand its size to ten directors until the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and appointed agriscience veteran James C. Collins Jr. as a director, effective April 1, 2026, for a term running through that meeting. The company also disclosed that current director Matthew Tsien will not stand for re-election at the 2026 meeting, signaling a board refresh that brings in Collins’s deep leadership experience from Corteva Agriscience, DuPont and other agribusiness boards, which may bolster AGCO’s strategic capabilities in the global agricultural sector.

Collins previously served as CEO and a board member of Corteva Agriscience, having led its creation in 2019 following the DowDuPont merger, and has held senior roles including COO of DowDuPont’s Agriculture Division and Executive Vice President of DuPont’s agricultural segments. He currently sits on the board of Archer-Daniels-Midland and on the boards of private agritech firms Vestaron and Pivot Bio, and holds an MBA in international business from the University of Delaware and a chemical engineering degree from Christian Brothers College, underscoring the technical and strategic expertise he brings to AGCO’s governance.

AGCO’s announcement on March 5, 2026, formalized Collins’s appointment and framed the board changes as part of its ongoing governance evolution. While Tsien’s departure marks the exit of a long-serving director, the addition of Collins suggests AGCO is sharpening its focus on advanced agriscience and sustainability trends shaping the agricultural equipment market, with potential implications for product strategy and partnerships across the value chain.

The most recent analyst rating on (AGCO) stock is a Buy with a $138.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Agco stock, see the AGCO Stock Forecast page.