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Air France KLM (AFLYY)
OTHER OTC:AFLYY

Air France KLM (AFLYY) AI Stock Analysis

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Air France KLM

(OTC:AFLYY)

67Neutral
Air France KLM shows signs of recovery with improving revenue and operational performance, bolstered by strong cash flow generation. However, high leverage and negative equity pose significant financial risks. The technical outlook is mixed, and while valuation suggests undervaluation, macroeconomic and industry-specific challenges persist.

Air France KLM (AFLYY) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Air France KLM Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAir France-KLM SA, together with its subsidiaries, provides passenger and cargo transportation services on scheduled flights in Metropolitan France, Benelux, rest of Europe, and internationally. The company operates through Network, Maintenance, Transavia, and Other segments. It also offers airframe and engine maintenance services; component support services comprising electronic, mechanical, pneumatic, hydraulic, etc.; and other services, as well as operates point-to-point flights to/from the Netherlands and France. As of December 31, 2021, it operated a fleet of 332 aircraft. The company was founded in 1919 and is headquartered in Paris, France.
How the Company Makes MoneyAir France-KLM generates revenue primarily through its passenger transportation services, which include ticket sales for both economy and premium travel classes. The company also earns income from cargo transportation, leveraging its extensive network to deliver freight across the globe. Additionally, Air France-KLM benefits from ancillary services such as baggage fees, seat selection, and onboard sales. A significant portion of revenue is also derived from maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services offered to third-party airlines. Partnerships such as joint ventures, code-sharing agreements, and alliances with other airlines help expand the company's network and enhance its revenue streams. Frequent flyer programs and strategic collaborations with travel agencies and other service providers further contribute to its financial performance.

Air France KLM Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Air France KLM is improving in revenue and operational margins, but significant financial risks persist due to high leverage and negative equity. Cash flow is improving, but the company needs to focus on sustainable profitability.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Air France KLM's income statement shows a recovery trajectory with a positive revenue growth rate of approximately 19% from 2022 to 2023 and a further increase in 2024 and TTM. The gross profit margin in TTM is 18.15%, and the net profit margin is 1.71%, indicating moderate profitability. However, the EBIT margin of 5.17% and EBITDA margin of 14.40% suggest operational efficiency improvements. Challenges remain with maintaining consistent profitability due to industry volatility.
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Air France KLM's balance sheet reflects high leverage with a negative stockholders' equity of -$1.945 billion in TTM, indicating financial risk. The debt-to-equity ratio can't be calculated due to negative equity. The equity ratio remains negative, suggesting a reliance on debt financing. Despite these challenges, there has been improvement in reducing net debt over time.
Cash Flow
68
Positive
The cash flow statement shows a positive trend with an improvement in operating cash flow, reaching $4.632 billion in TTM. The free cash flow has turned positive, indicating better cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 8.46, showing strong cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow growth rate from the previous year is substantial, highlighting potential volatility.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
31.46B30.02B26.39B14.31B11.09B
Gross Profit
7.21B6.17B7.97B3.10B1.00M
EBIT
1.47B1.68B816.00M-1.64B-4.64B
EBITDA
4.26B4.67B3.72B-379.00M-3.64B
Net Income Common Stockholders
317.00M934.00M728.00M-3.27B-7.03B
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
5.98B7.38B7.23B6.80B6.71B
Total Assets
36.16B34.49B32.30B30.68B30.21B
Total Debt
14.53B13.53B14.71B16.24B18.75B
Net Debt
9.71B7.39B8.08B9.58B12.33B
Total Liabilities
35.36B33.99B34.78B34.50B35.63B
Stockholders Equity
-1.76B-2.05B-3.00B-3.82B-5.43B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-232.00M-426.00M1.88B-668.00M-4.92B
Operating Cash Flow
3.50B3.13B4.86B1.53B-2.83B
Investing Cash Flow
-2.77B-3.24B-2.15B-1.24B-1.58B
Financing Cash Flow
-2.11B-989.00M-2.76B-77.00M7.15B

Air France KLM Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price0.94
Price Trends
50DMA
0.96
Negative
100DMA
0.89
Positive
200DMA
0.89
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
>-0.01
Negative
RSI
57.61
Neutral
STOCH
78.97
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AFLYY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.94 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.86, below the 50-day MA of 0.96, and above the 200-day MA of 0.89, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 57.61 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AFLYY.

Air France KLM Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
UAUAL
76
Outperform
$24.19B6.8233.57%5.31%35.95%
DADAL
75
Outperform
$28.86B7.8427.52%1.24%4.91%-27.21%
74
Outperform
$26.45B15.2021.21%1.68%5.39%-15.92%
67
Neutral
$2.40B4.74-7.21%4.44%-28.31%
64
Neutral
$4.27B11.805.31%249.79%4.07%-9.02%
LULUV
59
Neutral
$17.01B35.455.63%2.41%3.26%27.77%
AAAAL
58
Neutral
$6.94B12.31-21.27%1.92%36.07%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AFLYY
Air France KLM
0.94
-0.14
-12.96%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
45.51
-6.13
-11.87%
RYAAY
Ryanair Holdings
50.36
0.11
0.22%
LUV
Southwest Airlines
30.08
3.71
14.07%
UAL
United Airlines Holdings
74.86
22.17
42.08%
AAL
American Airlines
10.66
-3.59
-25.19%

Air France KLM Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 10.59%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a generally positive outlook with strong revenue growth, improved operating results, and robust cash flow, despite challenges such as increased costs at Schiphol and softness in the US economy class market.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenues were up 8% year-over-year, driven by a solid performance across all activities, including maintenance.
Improved Operating Results
Operating result improved by €161 million, reaching a negative €328 million. This was supported by strong unit revenue development, a more favorable fuel price environment, and improved operational performance.
Positive Free Cash Flow
Generated a positive recurring adjusted operating free cash flow of €0.8 billion, highlighting strong cash generation capabilities.
Premium Segment Performance
Strong performance in the premium segment, with notable demand in premium economy and business class, contributing to high yields.
Sustainability Commitment
The share of new generation aircraft increased by 7 percentage points compared to last year, now representing 28% of the total fleet.
Strong Engine Maintenance Business
Significant step-up in revenues from engine maintenance, approaching pre-COVID margins despite supply chain difficulties.
Negative Updates
Impact of Schiphol Tariff Increase
Schiphol tariffs increased by an outrageous 40%, impacting unit costs by approximately 0.3% to 0.4%.
Transavia Challenges
Transavia faced challenges due to the Easter holiday shift, bad weather in Spain, and new ticket taxes in the Netherlands, affecting unit revenue.
US Market Softness
Softness in economy class yields on the transatlantic market, with a need to potentially lower prices to stimulate demand.
Maintenance Cost Pressures
Higher maintenance costs expected to continue impacting unit costs, with one-off compensations from the previous year no longer applicable.
Company Guidance
During the Air France-KLM First Quarter 2025 Results Presentation, CEO Ben Smith and CFO Steven Zaat highlighted several key metrics demonstrating the group's improved performance. Revenues increased by 8% year-over-year, and the operating result improved by €161 million, resulting in a negative €328 million. The net debt-to-EBITDA ratio stood at 1.6 times, aligning with their midterm ambition range of 1.5 to 2.0 times. The group generated a positive recurring adjusted operating free cash flow of €0.8 billion, indicating strong cash generation capabilities. Additionally, the share of new generation aircraft in the fleet rose by 7 percentage points to 28%. Despite economic uncertainties, Europe maintained strength as a travel destination, with inbound traffic growth from the U.S. and other regions. The company remains committed to sustainability and premiumization, with a focus on upgrading long-haul premium offerings and expanding the new La Première suite, which has become profitable.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.