Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO)
NYSE:AERO
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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
(NYSE:AERO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$18.00
▲(36.99% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/20/26
The score is capped primarily by elevated balance-sheet risk (negative equity, meaningful debt) and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting factors include improved profitability and positive operating cash flow, plus an earnings-call outlook showing strong revenue growth and improving leverage, albeit with near-term margin pressure from fuel and currency headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
Sustained profitability since 2023 and strong TTM margins indicate durable operational recovery and improved unit economics. Better margins provide recurring cash generation capacity, support reinvestment in fleet and products, and reduce reliance on short-term financing during typical airline cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Elevated Balance-Sheet Risk
Negative equity and sizable debt create a structural leverage constraint that limits financial flexibility, raises refinancing and covenant risk, and magnifies downside in stress scenarios. This persistent balance-sheet weakness constrains capital allocation and raises vulnerability to adverse shocks over months.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
Sustained profitability since 2023 and strong TTM margins indicate durable operational recovery and improved unit economics. Better margins provide recurring cash generation capacity, support reinvestment in fleet and products, and reduce reliance on short-term financing during typical airline cyclicality.
Read all positive factors
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.57B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)201.51K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.31
Revenue Growth1.99%
EPS Growth-93.70%
CountryUS
Employees17,143
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.35
Shares Outstanding145,903,410
10 Day Avg. Volume140,332
30 Day Avg. Volume201,511
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-5.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap30.93
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.34
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit52.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda49.76
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$26.87Price Target Upside104.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.91B
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in offering commercial air transport services for both individuals and cargo. Its primary services encompass scheduled passenger flights, dedicated air freight oper...
How the Company Makes Money
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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 21, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a balanced picture: strong commercial execution, notable revenue and unit-revenue gains, record liquidity and improved leverage, and operational recognition are meaningful positives. However, material near-term headwinds from elevated fuel prices, currency appreciation, and temporary regional demand disruptions will compress margins in Q2 and introduce uncertainty for the rest of the year. Management has clear mitigation plans (fuel recapture, capacity discipline, cost controls) and a defined path to recover fuel costs over the year, but the near-term outlook remains vulnerable to fuel volatility.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth and Unit Revenue Strength
Total revenue of $1.34 billion (reported also as $1.3 billion) grew ~13% year-over-year; total unit revenue (PRASM) increased 15% YoY, reflecting strong pricing and demand resilience.
Negative Updates
Elevated Fuel Prices Driving Cost Pressure
Total operating expenses rose 16% YoY, with higher jet fuel cited as the primary driver. Management estimates an adverse effect of ~€36 million in Q1 from higher fuel and demand disruptions.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth and Unit Revenue Strength
Total revenue of $1.34 billion (reported also as $1.3 billion) grew ~13% year-over-year; total unit revenue (PRASM) increased 15% YoY, reflecting strong pricing and demand resilience.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided that second-quarter capacity should be up roughly 1.5%–2.5% year‑over‑year with total revenue growth of about 12.5%–15.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 17%–20% (operating margin 4%–7%), assuming jet fuel near $3.80–$4.20/gal (mid ≈ $4), and expects to recapture ≈50% of incremental fuel costs in Q2 (rising to ~70% in Q3 and ~100% in Q4); management noted recent capacity actions removed ~0.5 percentage points, bookings moved from ~40% mid‑March to ~60% today (average ATL ~35 days), and for the full year they see growth nearer 2%–3% versus prior 3%–5% guidance. By way of context, Q1 results that underpin the guidance included total revenue of ~$1.3–$1.34 billion (+13%/+13.3% YoY), PRASM +15% YoY, operating income $142M (11% margin), adjusted EBITDA €36M (25% margin, +5% YoY) despite operating expenses +16% YoY and a 14% stronger peso; liquidity exceeded $1.2B (≈23% of LTM revenue), net operating cash flow >$200M, adjusted net debt/EBITDA ~1.7x, fuel was ~21% of 2025 revenues, fuel burn per ASM improved 1.4% (~$5M savings), and fleet plans target ~170 aircraft by year‑end (two 787s and three 737 MAX deliveries, one NG redelivery planned).Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.53B | 5.36B | 5.62B | 4.92B | 3.81B | 108.93M |
| Gross Profit | 1.50B | 1.48B | 1.75B | 1.33B | 498.60M | 1.37M |
| EBITDA | 1.60B | 1.52B | 1.64B | 1.16B | 799.57M | -21.43M |
| Net Income | 341.82M | 351.86M | 617.44M | 273.33M | -64.25M | -49.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.24B | 7.19B | 6.38B | 6.09B | 5.55B | 206.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.04B | 1.02B | 815.50M | 912.87M | 755.16M | 46.10M |
| Total Debt | 3.98B | 4.06B | 3.70B | 3.23B | 5.44B | 87.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 7.82B | 7.79B | 7.28B | 6.82B | 6.28B | 336.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | -583.05M | -592.01M | -901.96M | -734.93M | -732.80M | -129.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 599.88M | 589.89M | 947.61M | 1.02B | -409.94M | -5.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 937.50M | 925.47M | 1.37B | 1.36B | -209.28M | 3.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -291.55M | -280.77M | -493.81M | -409.61M | -526.18M | -6.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -499.50M | -497.82M | -916.26M | -917.46M | 598.02M | 31.81M |
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $5.94B | 8.35 | 26.01% | 5.28% | 9.30% | 17.03% | |
72 Outperform | $55.23B | 12.11 | 23.14% | 0.96% | 5.24% | 20.93% | |
64 Neutral | $15.95B | 9.45 | 126.90% | 3.50% | 16.19% | 62.18% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
53 Neutral | $2.57B | ― | 42.95% | ― | 1.99% | -93.70% | |
50 Neutral | $10.23B | 51.42 | -5.17% | ― | 3.33% | -70.60% | |
44 Neutral | $960.39M | -8.08 | -50.21% | ― | 4.23% | -405.62% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
17.24
-3.11
-15.28%
CPA
Copa Holdings
143.36
44.84
45.51%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
83.14
36.38
77.80%
AAL
American Airlines
15.71
5.15
48.77%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
8.67
4.28
97.49%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
55.01
18.42
50.34%
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Corporate Events
Grupo Aeroméxico Shareholders Approve 2025 Results and Governance Changes at April 30 Meeting
May 1, 2026
At its Annual Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting in Mexico City on April 30, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico approved 2025 management and board reports, the 2024 tax audit report, and consolidated audited financial statements as of December 31, 2025...
Aeroméxico Posts Strong Q1 2026 Revenue Growth and Solid Margins Despite Capacity Trim
Apr 23, 2026
On April 21, 2026, Aeroméxico reported unaudited results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, highlighting a 13.3% year-on-year increase in total revenue to $1.34 billion despite a 1.2% reduction in capacity. The airline delivered an 1...
Grupo Aeroméxico Leaders Boost Insider Stakes With March Share Purchases
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico reported that certain members of its board of directors and executive management, using their own funds and acting individually, purchased an aggregate of 1,032,120 common shares, equivalent to 103,212 Amer...
Grupo Aeroméxico Calls April 30, 2026 Annual Shareholders’ Meeting to Review 2025 Results and Governance
Mar 17, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico announced it has called its annual ordinary shareholders’ meeting for April 30, 2026, in Mexico City, where investors will review operating and financial results for the year ended December 31, 2025, ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.