Want to see AERO full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
(NYSE:AERO)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$15.00
▼(-5.66% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/31/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet fragility (high debt and negative equity) and recent margin volatility, despite solid operating cash flow. Technicals are also weak with the stock trading below key moving averages. Offsetting these risks, management’s latest guidance and commentary point to a stronger second half with improving margins and strong liquidity, but valuation support is limited by a negative P/E and no stated dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Consistent positive operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable internal funding for operations and maintenance. Combined with >$1B cash and >€1.2B total liquidity, this strengthens near-term solvency and reduces refinancing pressure in a cyclical industry.
Negative Factors
High leverage & negative equity
Heavy indebtedness and negative equity materially constrain financial flexibility, increasing refinancing and covenant risk in downturns. For a cyclical airline, limited equity buffers raise default sensitivity and can force costly capital actions that dilute long-term value.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Cash generation & liquidity
Consistent positive operating cash flow and meaningful free cash flow provide durable internal funding for operations and maintenance. Combined with >$1B cash and >€1.2B total liquidity, this strengthens near-term solvency and reduces refinancing pressure in a cyclical industry.
Read all positive factors
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.32B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)259.65K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.96
Revenue Growth5.57%
EPS Growth-92.64%
CountryUS
Employees17,362
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.49
Shares Outstanding145,903,410
10 Day Avg. Volume212,892
30 Day Avg. Volume259,651
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.10
Price to Book (P/B)-5.38
Price to Sales (P/S)0.59
P/FCF Ratio5.39
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$23.25Price Target Upside46.23% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.95B
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., along with its various subsidiaries, specializes in offering commercial air transport services for both individuals and cargo. Its primary services encompass scheduled passenger flights, dedicated air freight oper...
How the Company Makes Money
Aeroméxico generates revenue primarily by selling air transportation and related services. Its main revenue stream is passenger revenue, earned from ticket sales for scheduled flights; pricing varies by route, cabin class, fare type, and purchase ...
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Jul 13, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 21, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a largely positive operational and financial picture: strong top-line performance (+30% revenue YoY), record quarter results, improved unit revenues (TRASM +10.5%, PRASM +10%), robust liquidity (> $1B cash) and guidance for stronger second-half profitability. Key challenges were material and volatile jet fuel costs (a ~$220M headwind, ~$30M incremental vs guidance), higher non-fuel operating costs (ex-fuel +13% YoY) driven by peso appreciation and maintenance contract renewals, and a temporary demand dip in June (~$24M impact). Management emphasized disciplined capacity and pricing actions, significant fuel-cost recapture above initial targets (~70–75%), and operating-leverage opportunities from new wide-body deliveries and additional Mexico City slots, supporting confidence in improved margins later in the year. Overall, the positive revenue, cash, premium-revenue mix, and guidance evidence outweigh the cost/fuel headwinds and short-term uncertainties.Positive Updates
Strong Revenue Growth and Record Quarterly Performance
Total revenue of approximately $1.5 billion in Q2, up ~30% year over year; company reported record revenues for June and its best second quarter ever.
Negative Updates
Elevated and Volatile Jet Fuel Costs
Experienced a ~$220 million fuel price headwind vs 2025, which translated into roughly $30 million of incremental cost pressure versus April guidance; average fuel prices in the quarter were ~8% above guidance assumptions and remain volatile.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Revenue Growth and Record Quarterly Performance
Total revenue of approximately $1.5 billion in Q2, up ~30% year over year; company reported record revenues for June and its best second quarter ever.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aeromexico’s guidance focused on a strong second half: Q3 revenue is expected at $1.59–$1.62B with adjusted EBITDA margins in the mid‑to‑high‑20s and operating margins in the mid‑teens; Q4 capacity is guided +6.5–8% YoY with total revenue growth +14.5–16.5% and adjusted EBITDA margin 28–31% (operating margin 15.5–18.5%); full‑year ASMs are expected +2–3%, total revenue +13–14% vs 2025, adjusted EBITDA margin 20.5–26.5% and operating margin 11–13% (EBIT described as low double‑digits). The plan assumes additional wide‑body flying after delivery of two 787s (plus one more later), use of ~10 additional slot pairs as MEX hourly ops rise 44→46, and capacity recovering to high single‑digit growth in Q4; liquidity was reiterated at >$1B cash and total liquidity >€1.2B (including a fully undrawn $100M RCF), expected net operating cash flow ~ $800M–$1B and free cash flow ~ $100M after ~ $450M CapEx (≈$300M maintenance, $150M other). Management noted Q2 headwinds of ~$220M fuel vs 2025 (≈$30M above April guidance) but achieved roughly a 70–75% fuel‑cost recapture, with Q2 TRASM +10.5% and PRASM +10%.Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 5.68B | 5.36B | 5.62B | 4.92B | 3.81B | 108.93M |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.48B | 1.75B | 1.33B | 498.60M | 1.37M |
| EBITDA | 1.47B | 1.52B | 1.64B | 1.16B | 799.57M | -21.43M |
| Net Income | 215.37M | 351.86M | 617.44M | 273.33M | -64.25M | -49.63M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 7.38B | 7.19B | 6.38B | 6.09B | 5.55B | 206.57M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.04B | 1.02B | 815.50M | 912.87M | 755.16M | 46.10M |
| Total Debt | 4.07B | 4.06B | 3.70B | 3.23B | 5.44B | 87.88M |
| Total Liabilities | 8.02B | 7.79B | 7.28B | 6.82B | 6.28B | 336.21M |
| Stockholders Equity | -640.05M | -592.01M | -901.96M | -734.93M | -732.80M | -129.66M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 575.23M | 589.89M | 947.61M | 1.02B | -409.94M | -5.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 928.60M | 925.47M | 1.37B | 1.36B | -209.28M | 3.77M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -312.46M | -280.77M | -493.81M | -409.61M | -526.18M | -6.90M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -520.77M | -497.82M | -916.26M | -917.46M | 598.02M | 31.81M |
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (55)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $60.07B | 14.67 | 19.33% | 0.91% | 10.28% | -12.67% | |
76 Outperform | $5.85B | 8.98 | 26.01% | 4.87% | 14.80% | -1.39% | |
75 Outperform | $16.19B | 9.97 | 98.01% | 3.05% | 20.16% | 39.18% | |
55 Neutral | $6.65B | 3.83 | -15.92% | 6.20% | 10.91% | 7.18% | |
51 Neutral | $954.48M | -5.01 | -93.84% | ― | 9.97% | -472.97% | |
50 Neutral | $2.32B | -6.07 | 42.95% | ― | 5.57% | -92.64% | |
46 Neutral | $10.55B | -30.61 | 8.29% | ― | 7.53% | -157.37% |
* General Sector Average
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
15.76
-4.59
-22.56%
CPA
Copa Holdings
136.69
25.52
22.96%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
89.21
36.29
68.57%
AAL
American Airlines
15.00
3.42
29.53%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
8.06
2.41
42.65%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
53.74
11.77
28.04%
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Corporate Events
Aeroméxico Posts Record Q2 2026 Revenue but Margins Compress as Fuel Costs Surge
Jul 14, 2026
Aeroméxico reported unaudited second-quarter 2026 results on July 13, highlighting record total revenue of $1.5 billion and a 12.6% year-on-year increase despite fuel expenses surging nearly 80%. Adjusted EBITDAR fell to $264 million with a 1...
Grupo Aeroméxico Shareholders Approve 2025 Results and Governance Changes at April 30 Meeting
May 1, 2026
At its Annual Ordinary Shareholders’ Meeting in Mexico City on April 30, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico approved 2025 management and board reports, the 2024 tax audit report, and consolidated audited financial statements as of December 31, 2025...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.