Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO)
NYSE:AERO
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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
(NYSE:AERO)
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Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$14.50
▲(10.35% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
Score is held back primarily by balance-sheet risk (negative equity and meaningful debt) and weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with bearish MACD). These are partly offset by an improving operating/cash-flow profile, supportive valuation from a low P/E, and constructive 2026 guidance with strong liquidity—though regulatory and FX/cost headwinds remain notable.
Positive Factors
Record margins and profitability
Sustained, record-high adjusted EBITDAR and strong operating margins demonstrate durable operational efficiency and pricing power. Higher structural margins improve cash generation and resilience to demand cycles, enabling reinvestment in fleet and customer initiatives over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Negative shareholders’ equity and volatile debt
Persistently negative equity and material, volatile debt create structural financial risk in a cyclical airline industry. Negative equity limits flexibility for adverse shocks, constrains borrowing options, and raises the probability that operational setbacks could force dilutive or costly capital solutions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record margins and profitability
Sustained, record-high adjusted EBITDAR and strong operating margins demonstrate durable operational efficiency and pricing power. Higher structural margins improve cash generation and resilience to demand cycles, enabling reinvestment in fleet and customer initiatives over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR (AERO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.02B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)643.30K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.5
Beta (1Y)2.71
Revenue GrowthN/A
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees17,143
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAirlines, Airports & Air Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.68
Shares Outstanding145,903,410
10 Day Avg. Volume711,566
30 Day Avg. Volume643,301
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.19
Price to Book (P/B)-5.06
Price to Sales (P/S)0.56
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.50
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.94
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit3.79
Enterprise Value/Ebitda3.23
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$27.67Price Target Upside110.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.76
Revenue Forecast (FY)$5.74B
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Grupo Aeroméxico, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, provide public air carrier services for passengers and goods. It offers scheduled passenger air carrier services, cargo air carrier services, and other services. The company also offers l...
How the Company Makes Money
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Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 05, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a broadly positive operational and financial picture: record and historic margin achievements, strong cash generation, improved leverage, fleet investments and robust guidance for 2026. These positives offset earlier-year demand softness, a modest rise in CASM ex-fuel (1.8%), and regulatory/FX-related risks. Management emphasized disciplined capacity deployment, premium-led revenue momentum and significant liquidity, while acknowledging one-time items and operational constraints that temper near-term margin expansion.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDAR and Margins
Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDAR reached $1.7 billion with a 31% margin (highest in company history). Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDAR was $502 million with a 35% margin (highest quarterly EBITDAR on record). Excluding TechOps sale and IPO expenses, full year adjusted EBITDAR was $1.6 billion with a 30% margin and Q4 was $435 million with a 30% margin.
Negative Updates
CASM Ex-Fuel Increase
Cost per ASM excluding fuel (CASM ex-fuel) rose 1.8% YoY, driven by higher labor costs from collective bargaining renegotiations, increased depreciation from fleet additions, IPO-related expenses and peso appreciation affecting peso-denominated costs.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDAR and Margins
Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDAR reached $1.7 billion with a 31% margin (highest in company history). Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDAR was $502 million with a 35% margin (highest quarterly EBITDAR on record). Excluding TechOps sale and IPO expenses, full year adjusted EBITDAR was $1.6 billion with a 30% margin and Q4 was $435 million with a 30% margin.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aeromexico guided to modest, profitable growth in 2026: ASM/capacity up 3–5% (around 4%), full‑year revenue +7.5% to +9.5%, adjusted EBITDAR margin 28.5%–30.5% and operating income margin 15%–17%. For Q1 2026 they expect revenue +10% to +12%, adjusted EBITDAR margin 26%–28% and operating income margin 11%–13% (EBIT roughly +10%). Guidance assumptions: MXN 18.3/USD, Brent ≈ $69/bbl and a crack spread ≈ $25/bbl. Fleet plans include ~3 MAXs plus a couple of 787s (ending ~170 aircraft); liquidity ~ $1.2B (cash $1.0B + $200M undrawn, ~23% of LTM revenue) and adjusted net debt/EBITDA ~1.8x, with narrow‑body utilization ~9 hrs (room toward ~10 hrs).Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
24
Negative
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 5.38B | 5.62B | 4.92B | 3.81B | 2.22B |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 1.75B | 1.33B | 498.60M | 31.48M |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 1.64B | 1.16B | 799.57M | -351.98M |
| Net Income | 353.13M | 617.44M | 273.33M | -64.25M | -917.70M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 7.19B | 6.38B | 6.09B | 5.55B | 4.24B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.02B | 815.50M | 912.87M | 755.16M | 946.96M |
| Total Debt | 4.06B | 448.30M | 2.71B | 3.45B | 1.91B |
| Total Liabilities | 7.79B | 7.28B | 6.82B | 6.28B | 6.91B |
| Stockholders Equity | -592.01M | -901.96M | -734.93M | -732.80M | -2.66B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 0.00 | 873.71M | 924.75M | -494.60M | -138.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 915.94M | 1.37B | 1.35B | -230.31M | 55.02M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -270.87M | -489.00M | -406.21M | -521.65M | -118.83M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -497.60M | -920.06M | -909.83M | 595.67M | 655.79M |
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $13.03B | 10.91 | 136.60% | 3.50% | 6.81% | 58.22% | |
74 Outperform | $4.56B | 7.41 | 25.62% | 5.28% | 1.36% | 6.84% | |
69 Neutral | $42.34B | 8.99 | 27.63% | 0.96% | 4.33% | -1.58% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | $2.02B | 8.48 | -47.36% | ― | ― | ― | |
46 Neutral | $6.80B | 25.57 | -2.76% | ― | 1.27% | 118.64% | |
45 Neutral | $805.18M | -9.81 | -20.74% | ― | -6.55% | -133.03% |
* Industrials Sector Average
AERO
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR
13.82
-6.53
-32.09%
CPA
Copa Holdings
110.91
23.24
26.51%
DAL
Delta Air Lines
64.83
21.76
50.52%
AAL
American Airlines
10.30
-0.25
-2.37%
VLRS
Controladora Vuela Compania de Aviacion SAB de CV
6.95
1.73
33.14%
LTM
LATAM Airlines Group SA Sponsored ADR
47.99
17.90
59.49%
Grupo Aeromexico, S.A.B. de C.V. Unsponsored ADR Corporate Events
Grupo Aeroméxico Says Disruptions at Four Mexican Airports Not Material to Network
Feb 24, 2026
On February 23, 2026, Grupo Aeroméxico reported that it was restoring operations at Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta, Tepic and Manzanillo airports after recent events disrupted service. As of the announcement, flights were progressively normaliz...
Grupo Aeroméxico posts record 2025 margins and sets bullish 2026 outlook
Feb 17, 2026
Grupo Aeroméxico reported unaudited results on February 16, 2026, showing fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $1.4 billion and full-year 2025 revenue of $5.4 billion, with premium revenue contributing 42% for both periods. The airline delivered re...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.