Adyen (ADYEY) AI Stock Analysis

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Adyen

(OTC:ADYEY)

Rating:69Neutral

Price Target:―

Adyen's overall stock score reflects strong financial performance and growth potential, balanced against its high valuation and mixed technical signals. The lack of recent earnings call insights adds some uncertainty. While the company's fundamentals are solid, the stock is priced for significant future growth, presenting both opportunities and risks.

Adyen (ADYEY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$56.68B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)16.74K

Price to Earnings (P/E)56.0

Beta (1Y)1.70

Revenue Growth-63.44%

EPS Growth50.94%

CountryUS

Employees4,345

SectorTechnology

Sector Strength87

IndustrySoftware - Infrastructure

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.17

Shares Outstanding3,149,415,800

10 Day Avg. Volume50,212

30 Day Avg. Volume16,737

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.04

Price to Book (P/B)0.17

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio0.21

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$20.30

Price Target Upside12.72% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering1

Adyen Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAdyen N.V. operates a payments platform in Europe, the Middle East, Africa, North America, the Asia Pacific, Latin America. The company's platform integrates payments stack that include gateway, risk management, processing, issuing, acquiring, and settlement services. It offers a back-end infrastructure for authorizing payments across merchants' sales channels, as well as online, mobile, in-store, and APIs; and data insights. The company's platform services a range of merchants across various verticals, connecting them directly to Visa, Mastercard, and other payment methods. Adyen N.V. was incorporated in 2006 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands.

How the Company Makes MoneyAdyen makes money primarily through transaction fees charged to merchants for processing payments across various channels. The company offers competitive pricing models, including a fixed fee and a percentage of the transaction value. In addition to transaction fees, Adyen generates revenue from value-added services such as fraud prevention, data analytics, and subscription-based access to its platform. Key partnerships with global enterprises and financial institutions bolster its earnings by expanding its reach and integrating its services into broader business ecosystems. As a result, Adyen's revenue streams are diversified across different industries and geographies, contributing to its financial stability and growth.

Adyen Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 13, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 10.02%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 14, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call reflects strong performance with significant revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion driven by innovation and regional gains. However, challenges like the roll-off of a large digital customer and slower reported growth in LATAM provide some cautionary notes.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Strong Net Revenue Growth

Net revenues grew to close to €1.1 billion, marking a 22% growth for the period, driven by existing customer base and increased share of wallet.

EBITDA Margin Expansion

EBITDA margins expanded to 53% in the second-half of the year and just under 50% for the full year due to strong net revenue growth and reduced hiring.

Investment in Innovation

Launch of new products like Intelligent Payment Routing and Uplift, enhancing cost conversion and fraud reduction, boosting customer satisfaction and net promoter score to a high of 66.

Regional Growth

EMEA was the fastest growing region, while North America saw significant market share gains. LATAM experienced acceleration on a constant currency basis.

Unified Commerce and Platforms Success

Notable growth in unified commerce with clients like Motel One and platform clients like Spendesk, driving increased revenues.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday Success

Processed around 160,000 transactions per minute during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, showcasing the platform's reliability and scale.

Negative Updates

Impact of Large Digital Customer Roll-off

The roll-off of a large digital customer resulted in notable volume changes, affecting take rates and growth visibility.

LATAM Reported Growth Challenges

LATAM showed only 12% growth on a constant currency basis, with reported figures affected by currency fluctuations.

Hiring and Cost Control

While there was a strategic focus on hiring less in 2024, future plans indicate increased hiring, which could impact margins.

Company Guidance

During the H2 2024 earnings call for Adyen, the company provided detailed guidance and key financial metrics for the upcoming periods. Adyen reported a 22% growth in net revenues for the second half of the year, reaching nearly €1.1 billion, primarily driven by increased share of wallet with existing customers. The EBITDA margin expanded to 53% in the second half, with expectations for slight margin expansion in 2025. The company processed over €1 trillion in payment volume over the past year, reflecting the strength of its single platform strategy. Adyen's regional performance was highlighted by strong growth in EMEA, its largest and fastest-growing market, and significant market share gains in North America. For 2025, Adyen anticipates net revenue growth in the low-20s to high-20s percentage range, with continued investments in team expansion, particularly in North America and engineering, while maintaining a focus on operating leverage. The company's strategic focus on innovative products, such as Intelligent Payment Routing and Uplift, has contributed to an all-time high net promoter score of 66, indicating strong customer satisfaction and loyalty.

Adyen Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Adyen's financial performance is robust, with strong income growth and profitability. Revenue increased by 82% from 2019 to 2023, and profit margins are high. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, and cash flow generation is efficient, supporting further growth.

Income Statement

Very Positive

Adyen has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a revenue increase of 82% from 2019 to 2023. The gross profit margin is robust, improving from 18.7% in 2019 to 61.9% in 2023. Net profit margins have also strengthened, indicating high profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are solid, at 61.2% and 63.5% respectively in 2023. Overall, Adyen's income statement reflects a trajectory of strong growth and profitability.

Balance Sheet

Positive

Adyen maintains a strong balance sheet with an impressive equity ratio of 32.9% in 2023, showing sound financial stability. The company has low leverage, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.07, indicating minimal reliance on debt. Return on equity is strong at 22.2%, showcasing effective use of shareholder funds. Adyen's balance sheet is characterized by stability and low financial risk.

Cash Flow

Positive

Adyen's cash flow statement shows healthy cash generation, with a consistent increase in free cash flow, growing by 81% from 2019 to 2023. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.68 in 2023 suggests efficient cash earnings relative to accounting profit. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also robust at 2.58, indicating strong cash profitability. Overall, Adyen's cash flow is stable and supportive of its operational needs.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020	Dec 2019
Income Statement
Total Revenue	2.23B	1.86B	1.33B	1.00B	684.20M	534.30M
Gross Profit	1.99B	1.63B	948.92M	759.80M	503.63M	411.33M
EBITDA	1.36B	1.03B	755.81M	653.29M	414.33M	325.11M
Net Income	925.16M	698.32M	564.14M	469.72M	261.02M	204.04M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	11.43B	9.57B	7.62B	5.78B	4.16B	2.61B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	9.88B	8.31B	6.52B	4.62B	2.75B	1.76B
Total Debt	228.26M	223.06M	203.07M	142.96M	131.49M	61.69M
Total Liabilities	7.19B	6.42B	5.20B	3.97B	2.94B	1.69B
Stockholders Equity	4.23B	3.15B	2.41B	1.81B	1.22B	918.33M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.60B	1.80B	1.93B	1.77B	999.55M	514.27M
Operating Cash Flow	1.70B	1.87B	2.02B	1.82B	1.02B	529.46M
Investing Cash Flow	-118.62M	-69.74M	-87.69M	-42.13M	-22.16M	-22.76M
Financing Cash Flow	70.60M	-20.61M	-12.22M	96.24M	3.39M	9.36M

Adyen Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price18.01

Price Trends

50DMA

18.16

Negative

100DMA

17.40

Positive

200DMA

16.23

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.08

Positive

RSI

44.87

Neutral

STOCH

41.37

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADYEY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.85, below the 50-day MA of 18.16, and above the 200-day MA of 16.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 41.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADYEY.

Adyen Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (63)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FOUR	79 Outperform	$8.73B	33.33	30.28%	―	27.39%	115.40%
MDB	78 Outperform	$17.27B	―	-4.00%	―	19.24%	59.66%
XYZ	75 Outperform	$42.57B	16.84	12.93%	―	4.60%	425.38%
PAYO	75 Outperform	$2.52B	23.34	15.97%	―	14.86%	-0.94%
ADYEY	69 Neutral	$56.68B	55.99	25.46%	―	-63.44%	50.94%
MQ	68 Neutral	$2.74B	58.42	5.01%	―	-8.44%	―
Sector *	63 Neutral	$34.04B	6.14	-11.52%	1.82%	5.53%	-18.79%

* Technology Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ADYEY

Adyen

18.04

6.08

50.84%

XYZ

Block

69.23

5.00

7.78%

MDB

MongoDB

211.34

-48.76

-18.75%

FOUR

Shift4 Payments

101.80

28.44

38.77%

PAYO

Payoneer

6.98

1.49

27.14%

Marqeta

5.95

0.52

9.58%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jan 02, 2025