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Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (ADRNY)
OTHER OTC:ADRNY
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Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize
(OTC:ADRNY)
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Rating:76Outperform
Price Target:
$53.00
▲(28.64% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong, reliable cash generation and constructive earnings-call guidance (margin stability, EPS growth, solid free cash flow and higher shareholder returns). Valuation is reasonable for a defensive grocer. Technicals are supportive but tempered by extremely overbought momentum indicators, which increase near-term downside risk.
Positive Factors
Free Cash Flow Strength
Consistent, accelerating free cash flow underpins durable financial flexibility: it funds reinvestment, covers dividends and buybacks, and cushions operational shocks. That persistent cash generation supports management's capital return plans and strategic M&A without relying on volatile external funding.
Scale & Market Position
Leading market share in the Netherlands and expanding regional retail assets create durable competitive advantages: scale improves purchasing power, drives operating leverage, and facilitates roll-out of best practices across banners. Geographic breadth across Europe and the U.S. reduces single-market exposure.
Digital & Omnichannel Momentum
Sustained digital adoption and personalization increase customer retention and basket size while lowering long-term fulfillment costs. Structural growth in ecommerce and AI-driven offers supports a secular shift to higher-margin complementary income and strengthens omnichannel resilience versus pure-play competitors.
Negative Factors
Recent Revenue Weakness
A top-line contraction signals underlying demand or mix pressures that can persist across quarters. For a low-margin grocer, declining sales reduce operating leverage, strain margin sustainability, and increase reliance on cost actions or asset disposals to maintain profitability and shareholder returns.
Regulatory Headwinds (Serbia)
Price caps and intervention can be multi-quarter structural drags on profitability requiring remediation or exit decisions. Regulatory constraints limit pricing flexibility, compress local margins and may force reinvestment or restructuring, increasing execution risk and weighing on consolidated European margin profiles.
Thin, Volatile Profitability
Low baseline margins typical of grocery leave limited buffers for cost inflation, regulatory shocks or competitive price moves. Historical volatility in earnings highlights sensitivity to mix, one-offs and execution; sustained margin pressure would constrain reinvestment and shareholder return capacity over multiple quarters.
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize (ADRNY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$42.61B
Dividend Yield3.32%
Average Volume (3M)1.76K
Price to Earnings (P/E)17.4
Beta (1Y)<0.01
Revenue Growth5.42%
EPS Growth19.26%
CountryUS
Employees390,000
SectorConsumer Defensive
Sector Strength42
IndustryGrocery Stores
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.87
Shares Outstanding891,188,500
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume1,759
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.52
Price to Book (P/B)2.21
Price to Sales (P/S)0.34
P/FCF Ratio4.48
Enterprise Value/Market Cap0.89
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.41
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit1.55
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.82
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)3.26
Revenue Forecast (FY)$110.53B
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionKoninklijke Ahold Delhaize (ADRNY) is a multinational retail company based in the Netherlands, specializing in food and grocery retail. The company operates a diverse portfolio of supermarket brands across Europe and the United States, including well-known chains such as Food Lion, Giant, and Stop & Shop. Ahold Delhaize focuses on delivering quality products and services to its customers, with a strong emphasis on sustainability and community engagement. The company also engages in e-commerce through its online grocery shopping platforms, enhancing convenience for shoppers.
How the Company Makes MoneyAhold Delhaize generates revenue primarily through the sale of groceries and household goods in its supermarkets and online platforms. The company's revenue model is driven by multiple streams, including in-store sales, e-commerce transactions, and private label products. In addition to traditional retail sales, Ahold Delhaize benefits from its extensive supply chain management and cost efficiencies, which enhance profitability. The company also engages in partnerships with various suppliers and vendors, allowing it to offer competitive pricing and promotions. Seasonal sales events and loyalty programs further contribute to customer retention and increased spending. Overall, the combination of a strong brand presence, diversified product offerings, and strategic partnerships plays a crucial role in Ahold Delhaize's financial performance.
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominately positive operational and financial picture: solid top-line growth, improving margins and EPS, strong free cash flow that enabled increased shareholder returns, meaningful online and AI-led progress, and clear sustainability advances. Material caveats include regulatory headwinds in Serbia, IFRS one-offs tied to the omnichannel transition, local structural impacts (e.g., tobacco cessation), and competitive and macro uncertainties in the U.S. On balance the positive results, cash generation and strategic momentum outweigh the challenges, though several issues warrant monitoring over the next few quarters.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-line Growth
Full-year net sales rose 5.9% to EUR 92.4 billion; Q4 net sales grew 6.1% to EUR 23.5 billion. Full-year comparable sales (excluding gas) increased 3.2%; Q4 comparable sales were +2.5% (including minor weather/calendar impacts).
Healthy Profitability and EPS Progress
Delivered a full-year underlying operating margin of 4.0% and Q4 underlying operating margin of 4.2%. Diluted underlying EPS was EUR 2.67 for the full year and EUR 0.73 in Q4 (+11.9% year-over-year in Q4); management cited diluted underlying EPS growth of ~7.8%.
Strong Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns
Free cash flow of EUR 1.5 billion in Q4 and EUR 2.6 billion for the full year (exceeding guidance). Company proposed a 6% dividend increase to EUR 1.24 per share and initiated a EUR 1 billion share buyback program for 2026.
Digital, AI and Online Momentum
Online sales grew 12.9% in Q4 and 13.3% for the full year; U.S. online grew 22.8% in Q4 (Food Lion ecommerce >35% growth and +2 percentage points in penetration). PRISM rollout reached ~32 million customers and delivered ~14 billion personalized offers in 2025.
U.S. Operational Outperformance
U.S. net sales of EUR 13.0 billion (Q4) with comparable sales excluding gas up 2.7% and a Q4 underlying operating margin of 4.7%. Food Lion delivered its 53rd consecutive quarter of growth and strong ecommerce momentum.
European Growth, Strategic M&A and Retail Strength
Europe Q4 net sales EUR 10.5 billion, up 11.2% (partly reflecting the Profi acquisition). Profi opened 70 stores in 2025 and is positioned for growth; Albert Heijn achieved a record market share of 38.2% for the year.
Cost Savings, Reinvestment and Complementary Income Progress
Delivered nearly EUR 1.3 billion in customer savings in 2025, which are being reinvested into price, tech and stores. Complementary income grew double-digit in 2025 and management reiterated a target of ~EUR 3 billion by 2028.
Strong Sustainability and Healthy-Choice Metrics
Own-brand healthy food sales at 52.1% (like-for-like +40 bps vs 2024). Total tons of food waste per food sales down 39.1% vs 2016 baseline (improved 4.4 p.p. vs 2024). CO2 in operations down 39.1% vs 2018 baseline (3.4% improvement vs prior year); virgin plastic in own-brand packaging down 10.9% vs 2021.
Negative Updates
Serbia Pricing Regulation and Associated Headwind
Government intervention on price limitations in Serbia created notable headwinds and moved Serbia toward a loss-making position; management highlighted Serbia as a multi-quarter area of remediation and a drag on European margins.
IFRS Charges and One-off Costs Related to Omnichannel Shift
IFRS operating results were lower than underlying by EUR 96 million in Q4 and EUR 192 million for the full year, driven mainly by impairment charges and portfolio-optimization costs tied to the strategic shift to a U.S. store-first omnichannel fulfillment model and Profi integration costs.
Local Regulatory and Structural Impacts on Comparable Sales
Q4 comparable sales included negative impacts such as ~0.2 percentage points from the end of tobacco sales in Belgium and ~0.1 percentage points from weather/calendar shifts; Europe comparables were impacted by these structural changes as well.
Macro and Competitive Risks in the U.S.
Management flagged pockets of inflation, unpredictable government policies and heightened competition (Walmart, Amazon, marketplace entrants) as ongoing risks; analysts also called out potential headwinds from SNAP changes and broader consumer trends (e.g., GLP-1 related dynamics).
Pharmacy Sales Technical Impact from IRA
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act is expected to reduce U.S. pharmacy sales by approximately $350 million in 2026 (management said there will be no impact on underlying profit, but it is a material sales item to note).
Stop & Shop and Ongoing Execution Needs
Stop & Shop is recovering with >65% of price investments implemented (planned to rise to ~80% in 2026) and improved NPS, but management emphasized more quarters of improvement are needed before deeming the turnaround complete.
Company Guidance
The company guided 2026 to an underlying operating margin of around 4% (with limited downside), mid- to high single‑digit diluted underlying EPS growth at constant rates, free cash flow of at least EUR 2.3 billion and gross CapEx of approximately EUR 2.7 billion; management flagged a 53rd week that is expected to add about 1.5–2% to net sales and 2–3% to underlying net income (with no material impact on operating margin), noted the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act will lower U.S. pharmacy sales by roughly $350 million with no underlying profit impact, the Delfood deal adds >€200 million of European sales, and reiterated shareholder returns actions including a proposed 6% dividend increase to €1.24 per share and a €1 billion share buyback program for 2026.Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Strong and consistent operating/free cash flow is the core strength (FCF positive every year with a sharp acceleration in 2025). Margins are steady but thin (typical for grocery), while revenue growth slowed and turned negative in 2025 and profitability was volatile versus 2022 highs. Balance-sheet leverage is moderate with an improving risk profile after the large 2025 debt reduction.Income Statement
Revenue has been largely stable over the past several years, but growth slowed and turned negative in 2025 (-3.7% vs. +0.7% in 2024). Profitability is steady but thin as expected for grocery retail: gross margin held around ~26–27% (2021–2024) and net margin ~2–3% (2021–2024). However, earnings power has been volatile—net income fell from 2022 to 2024 before rebounding in 2025, and operating profitability (EBIT/EBITDA) also dipped vs. 2022 highs, indicating some pressure from costs and/or pricing mix.72
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage is meaningful but not extreme for a mature retailer. Debt-to-equity ran around ~1.15–1.32 (2021–2024), suggesting reliance on debt funding, while equity remained sizable (~€14–15B range). Total debt spiked in 2024 and then dropped sharply in 2025 (to ~€4.6B), which improves balance-sheet risk, though the magnitude of the swing suggests one-time actions (repayments/reclassification) rather than a smooth deleveraging trend. Returns on equity were solid historically (about ~11–17% in 2020–2024), but eased from 2022 peaks, consistent with the profit slowdown.66
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is a key strength. Operating cash flow has been consistently strong (~€5.5–7.0B from 2021–2025). Free cash flow was positive every year and accelerated sharply in 2025 (up ~62%), with free cash flow in 2025 matching operating cash flow in the provided data, implying very low net investing outflows that year. In 2021–2024, free cash flow covered a meaningful portion of earnings (roughly ~57–63%), supporting resilience even when accounting profits softened.84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 92.35B | 89.36B | 88.73B | 86.98B | 75.60B |
| Gross Profit | 24.51B | 23.80B | 23.85B | 23.30B | 20.68B |
| EBITDA | 6.55B | 6.48B | 6.50B | 7.27B | 6.34B |
| Net Income | 2.26B | 1.76B | 1.87B | 2.55B | 2.25B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 49.09B | 51.84B | 47.82B | 48.55B | 45.71B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 3.60B | 6.17B | 3.48B | 3.21B | 3.13B |
| Total Debt | 4.58B | 20.34B | 17.79B | 17.67B | 17.09B |
| Total Liabilities | 34.89B | 36.39B | 33.07B | 33.15B | 31.99B |
| Stockholders Equity | 14.20B | 15.45B | 14.76B | 15.40B | 13.72B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 6.99B | 3.92B | 3.99B | 3.62B | 3.10B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 6.99B | 6.22B | 6.47B | 6.11B | 5.47B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -3.58B | -1.73B | -2.21B | -2.01B | -2.63B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.68B | -1.98B | -3.78B | -4.19B | -3.05B |
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Technical Analysis
Positive
41.20
Price Trends
41.85
Positive
41.64
Positive
41.12
Positive
Market Momentum
2.30
Negative
85.36
Negative
91.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADRNY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 41.2 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.81, below the 50-day MA of 41.85, and above the 200-day MA of 41.12, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.30 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 85.36 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADRNY.
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Risk Analysis
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | $42.61B | 17.39 | 14.19% | 3.32% | 5.42% | 19.26% | |
67 Neutral | $1.68B | 17.86 | 7.22% | 2.06% | 3.11% | 6.54% | |
65 Neutral | $6.99B | 13.95 | 38.43% | ― | 16.60% | 49.76% | |
62 Neutral | $20.33B | 14.63 | -3.31% | 3.23% | 1.93% | -12.26% | |
61 Neutral | $9.20B | 11.53 | 29.65% | 3.49% | 2.08% | -1.63% | |
59 Neutral | $43.19B | 62.50 | 7.75% | 2.15% | -1.77% | -70.83% | |
52 Neutral | $969.60M | -207.56 | -0.37% | ― | 7.22% | -108.99% |
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
ADRNY
Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize
49.32
14.64
42.22%
KR
Kroger Company
68.24
6.61
10.73%
WMK
Weis Markets
67.76
-3.64
-5.09%
SFM
Sprouts Farmers
73.87
-73.10
-49.74%
GO
Grocery Outlet Holding
9.88
-1.45
-12.80%
ACI
Albertsons Companies
17.90
-2.17
-10.79%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.