Adamas Trust (ADAM)
NASDAQ:ADAM
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Adamas Trust
(NASDAQ:ADAM)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
$8.50
▲(10.10% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/20/26
The score is driven by a strong 2025 earnings/cash-flow rebound and very attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield), partially offset by materially higher leverage that increases balance-sheet risk. Technicals are mildly weak in the near term, while the latest earnings call was constructive on 2026 EAD/dividend coverage but acknowledged ongoing integration costs and some credit/spread headwinds.
Positive Factors
Agency RMBS portfolio shift
Shifting capital to agency RMBS meaningfully increases portfolio liquidity and lowers credit risk relative to private credit. This structural allocation supports steadier interest income and reduces earnings volatility from credit losses, reinforcing medium-term earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
High balance-sheet leverage
Very high leverage materially increases sensitivity to rate and funding shocks, raises interest expense risk, and constrains strategic flexibility. With limited equity buffer, adverse market moves or asset markdowns could force deleveraging actions that undermine long-term dividend and growth plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Agency RMBS portfolio shift
Shifting capital to agency RMBS meaningfully increases portfolio liquidity and lowers credit risk relative to private credit. This structural allocation supports steadier interest income and reduces earnings volatility from credit losses, reinforcing medium-term earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
Adamas Trust (ADAM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$692.13M
Dividend Yield11.99%
Average Volume (3M)698.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)4.4
Beta (1Y)0.82
Revenue Growth36.78%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees70
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding90,474,340
10 Day Avg. Volume550,908
30 Day Avg. Volume698,198
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)0.46
Price to Sales (P/S)0.98
P/FCF Ratio5.24
Enterprise Value/Market Cap16.61
Enterprise Value/Revenue17.12
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit21.95
Enterprise Value/Ebitda37.55
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$9.00Price Target Upside16.58% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)0.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)$265.63M
Adamas Trust Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Adamas Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multi-family residential assets in the United States. The company's targeted residential loans, including business purpose loans; agency RMBS; non-ag...
How the Company Makes Money
null...
Adamas Trust Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized a transformational 2025 with material portfolio expansion, strong profitability, improved liquidity and balance sheet resilience, and rapid scaling of the Constructive origination platform. Management acknowledged near-term integration costs, a modest sequential decline in EAD tied to scaling (J-curve), realized credit-related losses, spread compression that tempered purchase pace, and a contracting BPL-Bridge book due to competitive pressures. On balance, the company delivered substantial earnings growth, book value appreciation and multiple strategic wins that management expects will drive durable recurring earnings as integration completes.Positive Updates
Substantial Investment Portfolio Expansion
Expanded investment portfolio by $3.1 billion in 2025 and increased Agency RMBS exposure by ~$3.4 billion; Agency portfolio ended the year at $6.6 billion (doubled in 2025) representing 63% of the investment portfolio and ~56% of equity capital.
Negative Updates
Sequential EAD Decline and J-curve Impact
Quarterly EAD declined by $0.01 sequentially to $0.23 per share; management attributed the modest decline to a J-curve effect from integrating Constructive and upfront scaling/integration costs rather than structural earnings pressure.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Substantial Investment Portfolio Expansion
Expanded investment portfolio by $3.1 billion in 2025 and increased Agency RMBS exposure by ~$3.4 billion; Agency portfolio ended the year at $6.6 billion (doubled in 2025) representing 63% of the investment portfolio and ~56% of equity capital.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that Constructive will move from integration to production and be a positive contributor to EAD in Q1 2026, supporting EAD expansion in 2026 after Q4 EAD of $0.23 per share (down $0.01 sequentially) that fully covered the $0.23 dividend; adjusted book value is up 3–4% quarter‑to‑date and Q4 GAAP and adjusted book values rose 4.3% and 2.4%, respectively. They expect Agency RMBS to grow to 60–70% of equity capital (Agency portfolio ended at $6.6B, 63% of the investment portfolio and 56% of equity), noting agencies delivered mid‑teens levered returns, current‑coupon agency spreads tightened 16 bps to ~110 bps, and the average spread to Treasuries (5–10 year interpolation) was ~139 bps. Constructive originated $474M in Q4 and $1.8B in 2025 (93% BPL‑Rental) with a weighted avg FICO of 751 and avg LTV of 74%, and was expected at acquisition to generate ~15% annual equity return; in Q4 Constructive produced $12.5M mortgage‑banking income, incurred $4.3M direct loan costs and $10.2M direct G&A (a $2M standalone loss) with ~40% of its G&A variable. Balance‑sheet and capital guidance included $206M cash, ~ $420M total liquidity capacity, no corporate debt maturities for the next three years after issuing $90M of 9.25% notes and redeeming $100M of 5.75% notes, company recourse leverage ~5.0x, portfolio recourse leverage ~4.7x and agency financing leverage ~7.7x, with continued emphasis on dividend sustainability, disciplined capital allocation, and targeting mid‑ to high‑teens returns in core strategies.Adamas Trust Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 671.61M | 558.92M | 500.80M | 138.11M | 380.19M |
| Gross Profit | 523.62M | 238.28M | 308.67M | 8.69M | 300.91M |
| EBITDA | 649.33M | -32.88M | -25.60M | -187.15M | 242.32M |
| Net Income | 149.05M | -62.03M | -48.66M | -298.61M | 193.20M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 12.64B | 9.22B | 7.40B | 6.24B | 5.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 210.33M | 4.00B | 2.20B | 344.28M | 490.45M |
| Total Debt | 11.00B | 3.56B | 2.81B | 2.65B | 2.52B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.21B | 7.81B | 5.77B | 4.38B | 3.23B |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.43B | 1.39B | 1.58B | 1.77B | 2.34B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 125.89M | 4.60M | 29.95M | 91.78M | 138.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 134.04M | 14.07M | 29.95M | 91.78M | 138.91M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.90B | -2.24B | -1.22B | -508.77M | -132.95M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 2.78B | 2.23B | 1.14B | 460.07M | 27.41M |
Adamas Trust Technical Analysis
Positive
7.72
Price Trends
7.66
Positive
7.46
Positive
6.92
Positive
Market Momentum
>-0.01
Negative
56.97
Neutral
78.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADAM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 7.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.42, above the 50-day MA of 7.66, and above the 200-day MA of 6.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 56.97 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 78.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ADAM.
Adamas Trust Risk Analysis
Adamas Trust disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Adamas Trust reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Adamas Trust Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
63 Neutral | $692.13M | 4.43 | 10.64% | 11.99% | 36.78% | ― | |
59 Neutral | $639.37M | 11.32 | 5.52% | 10.48% | -10.86% | -5.90% | |
49 Neutral | $422.31M | -11.67 | -3.80% | 11.33% | -24.37% | -19.19% | |
48 Neutral | $746.22M | ― | -5.86% | 13.13% | 34.68% | -251.91% | |
46 Neutral | $260.61M | ― | -12.90% | 26.82% | -43.56% | -166.72% | |
43 Neutral | $368.78M | -0.88 | -28.06% | ― | -65.32% | -325.73% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
ADAM
Adamas Trust
7.72
3.02
64.29%
RWT
Redwood
6.05
1.38
29.63%
RC
Ready Capital
1.62
-2.29
-58.61%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
6.59
-1.41
-17.64%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
8.19
1.91
30.33%
CMTG
Claros Mortgage Trust
2.61
0.34
14.98%
Adamas Trust Corporate Events
DividendsShareholder Meetings
Adamas Trust Declares Quarterly Dividends and Sets Meeting
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Adamas Trust, Inc., an internally managed real estate investment trust, concentrates on capital deployment across complementary real estate and capital markets businesses. The company seeks to deliver durable earnings and long-term stockholder val...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Adamas Trust Extends Buyback Programs, Refinances Senior Notes
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Adamas Trust reported that 2025 was a transformational year, with net income attributable to common stockholders reaching $101.1 million and earnings available for distribution of $80.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company exp...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Adamas Trust Raises $90 Million Through Senior Notes
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc. completed a public issuance and sale of $90 million aggregate principal amount of 9.250% Senior Notes due 2031, issued at par and structured as senior unsecured obligations ranking pari passu with its existi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.