Adamas Trust (ADAM) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $664.99M
• Dividend Yield: 11.99%
• Average Volume (3M): 690.68K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 4.4
• Beta (1Y): 0.81
• Revenue Growth: 36.78%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: US
• Employees: 70
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Mortgage
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 90,474,340
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 850,031
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 690,684
• PEG Ratio: -0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.46
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.98
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 17.25
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 15.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 28.11
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 37.47
• 1Y Price Target: $9.00
• Price Target Upside: 22.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.73
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $260.02M

• Rating: 63 Neutral
• Price Target: $8.50 ▲(15.65% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/20/26

The score is driven by a strong 2025 earnings/cash-flow rebound and very attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield), partially offset by materially higher leverage that increases balance-sheet risk. Technicals are mildly weak in the near term, while the latest earnings call was constructive on 2026 EAD/dividend coverage but acknowledged ongoing integration costs and some credit/spread headwinds.

Positive Factors

Agency RMBS portfolio shift

Shifting capital to agency RMBS meaningfully increases portfolio liquidity and lowers credit risk relative to private credit. This structural allocation supports steadier interest income and reduces earnings volatility from credit losses, reinforcing medium-term earnings resilience.

Consecutive EAD and dividend increases

Six straight quarterly EAD increases and a dividend raise indicate consistent distributable earnings and a shareholder-return policy that appears sustainable. This track record supports capital-raising credibility and signals management discipline in generating cash for payouts over the medium term.

Strong free cash flow conversion

High FCF conversion shows the company effectively turns accounting profits into cash, supporting dividends, asset purchases, and debt servicing. Even with modest operating cash to net income, near-par FCF conversion materially improves financial flexibility and lowers refinancing stress over the coming quarters.

Negative Factors

High balance-sheet leverage

Very high leverage materially increases sensitivity to rate and funding shocks, raises interest expense risk, and constrains strategic flexibility. With limited equity buffer, adverse market moves or asset markdowns could force deleveraging actions that undermine long-term dividend and growth plans.

Low returns and modest margins

Modest margins and stagnant revenue growth limit the firm's ability to generate excess returns on equity. Low operating profitability reduces capacity to absorb higher funding costs or support higher leverage, making long-term ROE improvement and reinvestment more challenging.

Rising expenses, integration losses, and portfolio weakness

Higher G&A, acquisition-related integration losses and realized losses are structural drags on distributable earnings while a shrinking BPL bridge portfolio signals competitive pressure. Persistent expense increases and asset-quality hits can reduce long-term cash available for dividends and growth.

Adamas Trust Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Adamas Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multi-family residential assets in the United States. The company's targeted residential loans, including business purpose loans; agency RMBS; non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS); structured multi-family property investments, such as preferred equity in, and mezzanine loans to owners of multi-family properties; and other mortgage-, residential housing- and credit-related assets and strategic investments; and commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). It also owns and manages single-family rental properties. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. Adamas Trust, Inc. was formerly known as New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. and changed its name to Adamas Trust, Inc. in September 2025. Adamas Trust, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in New York, New York.

How the Company Makes Money

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Adamas Trust Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement improved sharply in 2025 with a return to profitability (Score 66) and cash generation strengthened (Cash Flow Score 57), but the balance sheet deteriorated materially as leverage jumped (Balance Sheet Score 38). Overall, the rebound is meaningful but earnings durability is higher-risk given volatility and the step-change in debt.

Income Statement

Profitability rebounded sharply in 2025 (annual) with net income of $149.0M and a solid net margin of ~23.8%, after losses in 2022–2024. Revenue expanded strongly from 2022 to 2024, but declined ~10.6% in 2025, showing a choppy top-line trajectory. Margins are volatile across years (deeply negative in 2022 and negative again in 2023–2024), which increases confidence risk around earnings durability even after the 2025 recovery.

Balance Sheet

Leverage rose materially, with total debt jumping to ~$11.0B in 2025 versus ~$3.6B in 2024, driving debt-to-equity up to ~7.7x (from ~2.5x). While equity is still positive (~$1.43B) and return on equity turned positive in 2025 (~10.4%), the balance sheet is meaningfully more leveraged than prior years, reducing flexibility and increasing sensitivity to funding costs and asset value swings—especially relevant for a mortgage REIT profile.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved in 2025 with operating cash flow of ~$134.0M and free cash flow of ~$125.9M, up ~29% year over year, indicating better cash performance alongside the earnings recovery. However, cash flow was weak in 2024 (free cash flow of ~$4.6M) and the provided cash-to-earnings linkage metrics are not usable here (shown as 0), limiting visibility into how consistently profits translate into cash across periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	671.61M	558.92M	500.80M	138.11M	380.19M
Gross Profit	523.62M	238.28M	308.67M	8.69M	300.91M
EBITDA	649.33M	-32.88M	-25.60M	-187.15M	242.32M
Net Income	149.05M	-62.03M	-48.66M	-298.61M	193.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	12.64B	9.22B	7.40B	6.24B	5.66B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	210.33M	4.00B	2.20B	344.28M	490.45M
Total Debt	11.00B	3.56B	2.81B	2.65B	2.52B
Total Liabilities	11.21B	7.81B	5.77B	4.38B	3.23B
Stockholders Equity	1.43B	1.39B	1.58B	1.77B	2.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	125.89M	4.60M	29.95M	91.78M	138.91M
Operating Cash Flow	134.04M	14.07M	29.95M	91.78M	138.91M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.90B	-2.24B	-1.22B	-508.77M	-132.95M
Financing Cash Flow	2.78B	2.23B	1.14B	460.07M	27.41M

Adamas Trust Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 7.35
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ADAM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 7.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 8.03, below the 50-day MA of 8.09, and above the 200-day MA of 7.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.09 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 30.72 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 23.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ADAM.

Adamas Trust Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
ADAM	63 Neutral	$664.99M	4.43	10.64%	11.99%	36.78%	―
TRTX	59 Neutral	$628.40M	42.40	5.52%	10.48%	-10.86%	-5.90%
RC	49 Neutral	$252.46M	-1.57	-12.90%	26.82%	-43.56%	-166.72%
KREF	49 Neutral	$414.54M	-11.67	-3.80%	11.33%	-24.37%	-19.19%
RWT	48 Neutral	$686.19M	-8.93	-5.86%	13.13%	34.68%	-251.91%
CMTG	43 Neutral	$318.30M	-0.88	-19.24%	―	-65.32%	-325.73%

Adamas Trust Corporate Events

Adamas Trust Declares Quarterly Dividends and Sets Meeting

Adamas Trust, Inc., an internally managed real estate investment trust, concentrates on capital deployment across complementary real estate and capital markets businesses. The company seeks to deliver durable earnings and long-term stockholder value via disciplined portfolio management and an operating platform designed to capture sector opportunities.

On March 19, 2026, Adamas Trust declared a regular quarterly cash dividend of $0.23 per share on its common stock for the quarter ending March 31, 2026, payable April 28 to holders of record on March 30. The board also approved quarterly dividends on its Series D, E, F and G preferred shares for the January 15–April 14, 2026 period, and set June 11, 2026 as the date for its virtual annual meeting, reinforcing its ongoing capital return and governance calendar for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADAM) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adamas Trust stock, see the ADAM Stock Forecast page.

Adamas Trust Extends Buyback Programs, Refinances Senior Notes

Adamas Trust reported that 2025 was a transformational year, with net income attributable to common stockholders reaching $101.1 million and earnings available for distribution of $80.6 million for the year ended December 31, 2025. The company expanded its investment portfolio by $3.1 billion, lifted its quarterly dividend 15% to $0.23 per share in the final two quarters, and achieved an adjusted book value of $10.63 per share, delivering a full-year economic return on adjusted book value of 11.01%.

Operationally, Adamas Trust accelerated investment in Agency securities and residential loans, purchasing about $4.4 billion of investment securities—$4.1 billion in Agency investments—and acquiring $1.7 billion of residential loans over 2025. It also exited remaining multifamily joint venture equity positions and received $79.2 million from redemptions of mezzanine lending investments, while completing the acquisition on July 15, 2025 of the remaining 50% of Constructive, strengthening its residential credit platform.

On the financing side in 2025, the company raised long-term capital through multiple note issuances totaling nearly $200 million in aggregate principal amount of senior notes due 2030 and completed four residential loan securitizations that generated about $945.5 million in net proceeds. It also redeemed three residential loan securitizations with $424.6 million in principal, signaling active balance-sheet management and a shift toward higher-yielding assets and more durable funding.

Subsequent to year-end, Adamas Trust further reshaped its liability structure by issuing $90 million of 9.25% senior notes due 2031 on January 13, 2026 and completing a new residential loan securitization that provided $309.1 million in net proceeds, used mainly to repay $287.3 million on repurchase agreements. On February 2, 2026, it redeemed its $100 million 5.75% senior notes due 2026, and on February 16, 2026, the board extended both common and preferred stock repurchase programs to March 31, 2027, preserving $285.8 million of total authorized capacity and underlining confidence in the firm’s capital position and future earnings power.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADAM) stock is a Buy with a $9.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adamas Trust stock, see the ADAM Stock Forecast page.

Adamas Trust Raises $90 Million Through Senior Notes

On January 13, 2026, Adamas Trust, Inc. completed a public issuance and sale of $90 million aggregate principal amount of 9.250% Senior Notes due 2031, issued at par and structured as senior unsecured obligations ranking pari passu with its existing senior notes and effectively and structurally subordinated to certain secured and subsidiary-level liabilities. The notes, which pay cash interest quarterly starting April 1, 2026 and may be redeemed at par on or after April 1, 2028, generated expected net proceeds of approximately $86.6 million that the company plans to use for general corporate purposes, including potential asset acquisitions and/or repayment of existing debt, reinforcing its funding base and extending the maturity profile of its capital structure while providing investors with higher-yield fixed-income exposure to the issuer.

The most recent analyst rating on (ADAM) stock is a Hold with a $8.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Adamas Trust stock, see the ADAM Stock Forecast page.