Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $2.17B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 3.98M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.68
• Revenue Growth: 4.58%
• EPS Growth: -61.50%
• Country: US
• Employees: 25,500
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Medical - Care Facilities
• EPS (TTM): 0.07
• Shares Outstanding: 92,211,780
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,393,491
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 3,976,126
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.66
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.39
• P/FCF Ratio: -2.93
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 2.13
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 2.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -6.27
• 1Y Price Target: $21.50
• Price Target Upside: -5.66% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.49
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $3.41B

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: $24.50 ▲(7.50% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/13/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/13/26

The score is held back primarily by weakened financial quality—large TTM net loss and negative free cash flow—despite strong revenue growth and a manageable (but deteriorating) balance-sheet trend. Technicals are supportive with clear upward momentum, while the earnings call points to improving 2026 cash flow and disciplined CapEx but with meaningful legal/PLGL and reimbursement headwinds that temper confidence.

Positive Factors

Revenue & Capacity Growth

Acadia's 2025 revenue growth and addition of 1,089 beds reflect durable, volume-driven expansion. Persistent capacity growth and improving same-facility metrics support higher utilization, steady patient-service revenue and stronger referral/payer relationships, underpinning recurring cash flow over years.

Large Embedded EBITDA Opportunity

A >$200M embedded EBITDA opportunity from facilities opened 2023–2026 implies structural margin upside as new sites ramp. Realizing this over a multiyear window leverages fixed costs, improving long-run profitability and cash generation as utilization normalizes across the network.

CapEx Discipline & FCF Outlook

Management's move to lower, disciplined CapEx and explicit 2026 positive free cash flow guidance signals intact capital allocation focus. Sustained lower growth capex and improved cash conversion would materially aid deleveraging, liquidity and strategic flexibility over the medium term.

Negative Factors

Professional & General Liability

Large, recurring PLGL expense and reserve adjustments represent a structural drain on earnings and cash. The uncertain timing and magnitude of litigation outcomes can erode margins, absorb cash that would otherwise reduce leverage, and raise the firm's cost of capital for an extended period.

NY Medicaid Policy Headwind

The New York Medicaid change is a structural payer/regulatory shock that reduces addressable demand and has already forced consolidation and closures. A recurring $25M–$30M EBITDA hit compresses margins in affected markets and diminishes long-term revenue visibility from that footprint.

Weak Free Cash Flow & Leverage

Material negative TTM free cash flow and deteriorating conversion signal persistent cash burn despite positive operating cash flow. Coupled with net leverage near ~4x adjusted EBITDA, this constrains capital flexibility, limits ability to pay down debt, and raises refinancing and execution risk until FCF sustainably turns positive.

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes Money

Acadia Healthcare primarily makes money by providing behavioral healthcare treatment services and collecting reimbursement for patient care delivered at its facilities and programs. Its core revenue stream is patient service revenue generated when patients receive inpatient psychiatric care, residential/specialty substance use treatment, partial hospitalization and intensive outpatient services, and other outpatient behavioral health services. Payment is typically received from third-party payors—such as managed care organizations and commercial insurers, government programs (e.g., Medicare and Medicaid and their managed-care counterparts), and, to a lesser extent, patients paying out of pocket. Revenue is driven by factors such as patient volume (admissions/visits), length of stay for inpatient/residential services, payer mix (commercial vs. government reimbursement), negotiated or regulated reimbursement rates, and each facility’s capacity utilization. The company also earns revenue through contractual relationships with payors and referral sources that direct covered members/patients to Acadia facilities, and it may have concentration risks where a meaningful portion of revenue is tied to certain payors or government reimbursement programs. If specific details on material partnerships or the exact revenue mix by service line are not available from the provided context, null.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Mixed fundamentals skew cautious: strong TTM revenue growth (+144.6%) is outweighed by a sharp profitability break (TTM net loss of -$1.10B, negative EBITDA) and weak cash generation (TTM free cash flow -$346.7M). Balance sheet leverage is workable (debt-to-equity ~0.78) but trends have weakened versus 2024, reducing cushion if cash burn persists.

Income Statement

Revenue growth is strong in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (+144.6%), but profitability quality has deteriorated versus prior annual periods: TTM shows a very large net loss (-$1.10B) and negative EBITDA (-$737.1M) despite positive EBIT ($275.3M). Earlier years (2021–2024) generally showed positive operating profitability and mostly positive net income, so the TTM swing signals elevated earnings volatility and execution/accounting headwinds. Margins also look inconsistent across periods, which reduces confidence in the current run-rate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is moderate in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with debt-to-equity around 0.78 and total debt of ~$2.64B against equity of ~$1.95B. However, the capital structure has weakened from 2024 (lower debt and higher equity), and returns on equity are modest in TTM (~3.5%) after being stronger in 2021–2022 and negative in some earlier periods. Overall, the balance sheet is not distressed, but trend-wise it is moving in the wrong direction and is less insulated if earnings remain pressured.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is a key concern: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive ($131.9M) but free cash flow is negative (-$346.7M), and free cash flow declined versus the prior period. The business also shows weak conversion of earnings into operating cash flow in recent years (notably 2024), suggesting working-capital/investment demands or other cash headwinds. While 2022–2023 were comparatively healthier (positive free cash flow), the latest trend points to higher funding needs.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.31B	3.15B	2.93B	2.61B	2.31B
Gross Profit	583.44M	711.98M	682.61M	2.51B	2.22B
EBITDA	-737.83M	607.84M	189.11M	561.67M	459.47M
Net Income	-1.10B	255.61M	-21.67M	273.14M	190.63M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	5.53B	5.96B	5.36B	4.99B	4.77B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	133.24M	76.31M	100.07M	97.65M	133.81M
Total Debt	2.65B	2.09B	1.51B	1.53B	1.64B
Total Liabilities	3.39B	2.77B	2.47B	2.09B	2.19B
Stockholders Equity	1.95B	3.07B	2.78B	2.81B	2.52B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-439.91M	-560.69M	38.21M	84.42M	129.67M
Operating Cash Flow	131.90M	129.69M	462.34M	380.57M	374.48M
Investing Cash Flow	-547.58M	-736.48M	-397.22M	-305.83M	1.02B
Financing Cash Flow	472.61M	583.02M	-62.70M	-110.90M	-1.64B

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 22.79
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 22.79 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.35, above the 50-day MA of 16.80, and above the 200-day MA of 19.85, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 52.97 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NHC	78 Outperform	$2.51B	17.67	9.94%	1.80%	23.74%	-18.99%
SEM	62 Neutral	$2.02B	12.54	5.57%	1.69%	-22.96%	-59.35%
LFST	59 Neutral	$2.47B	281.23	0.65%	―	13.39%	90.55%
BKD	58 Neutral	$3.31B	-9.62	-523.78%	―	3.93%	-42.22%
SGRY	56 Neutral	$1.60B	-25.23	-4.50%	―	10.14%	-182.12%
ACHC	55 Neutral	$2.17B	-1.17	-39.42%	―	4.58%	-61.50%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Acadia Healthcare Refreshes Board With Finance Veteran Appointment

On March 12, 2026, Acadia Healthcare announced the appointment of veteran healthcare finance executive Daniel Cancelmi to its board of directors, effective immediately, following a search led by the board’s nominating committee and an executive search firm. Cancelmi brings more than three decades of experience, including 11 years as CFO of Tenet Healthcare, where he oversaw a major portfolio transformation and balance sheet strengthening.

The company also said director Wade D. Miquelon will not stand for re-election at the 2026 annual meeting, marking a planned board transition as he retires after years of service guiding Acadia’s growth. The refreshed board composition, supported by financial advisers Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan and legal counsel Kirkland & Ellis, underscores Acadia’s effort to bolster financial and strategic oversight as it pursues disciplined growth and seeks to enhance shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare CEO Christopher Hunter Departs Company, Board

On January 20, 2026, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. announced that Chief Executive Officer Christopher H. Hunter departed from his role and simultaneously resigned from the company’s board of directors, with both changes effective that same day. Under a separation and release agreement, Hunter will remain eligible for his 2025 annual bonus and will receive severance equal to 1.5 times his base salary plus target 2025 bonus, paid over 18 months, 18 months of after-tax health and dental premium support, a $1,785,000 lump-sum cash retention bonus, and the continued vesting eligibility of a prorated portion of his performance-based restricted stock units based on actual future performance, while all other unvested equity awards were forfeited; these benefits are contingent on his release of claims and compliance with restrictive covenants.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Reinstates Former CEO Amid Leadership Transition

On January 20, 2026, Acadia Healthcare announced that Chief Executive Officer Christopher H. Hunter departed the company and resigned from its board, with the company expecting to enter into a separation and release agreement to be detailed in a later regulatory filing. That same day, the board reinstated former CEO and director Debra K. (Debbie) Osteen as chief executive, principal executive officer and Class I director, underscoring a leadership reset amid macro headwinds for healthcare providers while the board conducts a broader search for a long‑term successor and evaluates options to enhance shareholder value. Osteen, a long-time industry leader credited with helping build Acadia into a leading behavioral health provider, has entered into a new open‑ended employment agreement that includes a $1.061 million base salary, performance-based annual bonus eligibility and a sizeable stock option grant tied to multi-year share price targets and retention conditions, aligning her compensation with company performance. Acadia reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial guidance, maintaining revenue expectations of $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $601 million to $611 million, and adjusted EPS of $1.94 to $2.04, signaling operational stability and continuity of its growth strategy despite the leadership transition.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Acadia Healthcare Reaffirms 2025 Financial Guidance at Conference

On January 13, 2026, Acadia Healthcare representatives participated in the 44th Annual J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference, where management reaffirmed its 2025 financial guidance, projecting revenue of $3.28 billion to $3.30 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $601 million to $611 million, and adjusted earnings per share of $1.94 to $2.04. The reaffirmation underscores management’s confidence in the company’s operating trajectory despite regulatory and operational headwinds, including changes to Medicaid financing and work requirements under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and highlights the importance of execution on growth initiatives, cost management and integration of facilities for shareholders and other stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Buy with a $19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.