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Acadia Healthcare (ACHC)
NASDAQ:ACHC

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

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Acadia Healthcare

(NASDAQ:ACHC)

65Neutral
Acadia Healthcare shows strong financial performance with robust revenue growth and improved profitability metrics. However, the technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, which might pose short-term risks. The company's valuation appears reasonable, and the recent earnings call suggests strategic growth despite some operational challenges. The overall score reflects a balanced outlook, with strengths in financial performance offset by technical challenges.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Q1 EBITDA exceeded expectations and was towards the higher end of the guide range due to better margins.
Growth Potential
Demand for mental health remains strong, and management's focus on bed additions should translate to continued organic volume growth.
Stock Buyback
Management repurchased $47MM worth of stock in Q1, with expectations of further buyback activity if the stock's valuation remains discounted.
Negative Factors
Cash Flow Concerns
Cash flows from operations were significantly down by -71.9%, indicating potential financial strain within the company.
Legal and Financial Challenges
The stock has floundered in the public market amid legal trouble and struggling fundamentals.
Market Confidence
ACHC shares are down 35% YTD and are trading at a heavy discount, highlighting the lack of investor confidence in the company's ability to achieve FY25 financial targets.

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.
How the Company Makes MoneyAcadia Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of behavioral healthcare services. The company's key revenue streams include payments for patient services rendered at its various facilities, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. These payments are typically received from a combination of private payers, government programs like Medicaid and Medicare, and commercial insurance providers. Additionally, Acadia Healthcare may form partnerships with other healthcare providers or governmental bodies to enhance service delivery and expand its market presence, which can also contribute to its revenue. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as occupancy rates in its facilities, reimbursement rates from payers, and the overall demand for behavioral healthcare services.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Acadia Healthcare demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved profitability metrics in 2024, indicating a positive financial trajectory. The balance sheet reflects a healthy capital structure, though rising debt levels warrant caution. Cash flow management shows potential volatility, with significant capital expenditures impacting free cash flow. Overall, the financial health of the company is solid with areas for cautious monitoring.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Acadia Healthcare has shown a strong revenue growth trend, with a significant increase in Total Revenue from 2023 to 2024, indicating robust top-line growth. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, with a notable improvement in 2024 following a loss in 2023. The gross profit margin remains consistent, reflecting stable core profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have significantly improved in 2024, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The company's balance sheet shows a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, with an increasing trend in stockholders' equity. The equity ratio indicates a solid capital structure. However, the total debt has increased over the years, which could pose potential leverage risks if not managed. The return on equity has improved significantly in 2024, showcasing effective utilization of equity capital.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals a stable operating cash flow, although there was a decline from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow has seen improvement, but the significant capital expenditures and the fluctuation in free cash flow growth rate highlight potential volatility in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong in 2024, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
3.15B2.93B2.61B2.31B2.09B
Gross Profit
711.98M682.61M1.12B979.89M848.17M
EBIT
522.28M506.60M443.90M414.47M365.61M
EBITDA
607.84M189.11M561.67M459.47M437.16M
Net Income Common Stockholders
255.61M-21.67M273.14M190.63M143.19M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
76.31M100.07M97.65M133.81M378.70M
Total Assets
5.96B5.36B4.99B4.77B6.50B
Total Debt
2.09B1.51B1.53B1.64B3.23B
Net Debt
2.01B1.41B1.43B1.50B2.85B
Total Liabilities
2.77B2.47B2.09B2.19B4.60B
Stockholders Equity
3.07B2.78B2.81B2.52B1.90B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-560.69M38.21M84.42M129.67M442.19M
Operating Cash Flow
129.69M462.34M380.57M374.48M658.81M
Investing Cash Flow
-736.48M-397.22M-305.83M1.02B-281.84M
Financing Cash Flow
583.02M-62.70M-110.90M-1.64B-51.50M

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price25.72
Price Trends
50DMA
26.54
Negative
100DMA
34.00
Negative
200DMA
46.53
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.41
Negative
RSI
53.02
Neutral
STOCH
74.88
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 25.72 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 23.34, below the 50-day MA of 26.54, and below the 200-day MA of 46.53, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.41 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 74.88 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Risk Analysis

Acadia Healthcare disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Acadia Healthcare reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (52)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
69
Neutral
$2.94B-10.43%13.54%-30732.00%
68
Neutral
$3.10B34.967.85%5.34%
68
Neutral
$2.02B24.459.18%9.06%10.68%
65
Neutral
$2.38B13.226.35%5.48%
SESEM
64
Neutral
$1.96B11.3410.38%2.90%-8.86%-36.22%
63
Neutral
$2.27B-2.47%16.31%79.86%
52
Neutral
$5.14B3.39-43.55%2.83%16.49%-0.19%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ACHC
Acadia Healthcare
25.72
-40.91
-61.40%
ADUS
Addus Homecare
108.24
-2.05
-1.86%
AMED
Amedisys
94.47
-0.48
-0.51%
SEM
Select Medical
14.87
-3.37
-18.48%
SGRY
Surgery Partners
22.77
-3.68
-13.91%
LFST
Lifestance Health Group
5.74
-1.63
-22.12%

Acadia Healthcare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -0.46%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a balanced view with strong revenue and EBITDA performance and effective expansion initiatives, but faced challenges with underperforming facilities and flat revenue per patient day growth.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Performance
First quarter revenue of $770.5 million came in just above the midpoint of the outlook range, while adjusted EBITDA of $134.2 million was near the high end of the outlook range.
Patient Day Growth
Same facility patient days grew 2.2% in the first quarter, despite an unfavorable leap year impact of approximately 110 basis points.
Expansion Initiatives
Added 378 new beds in the first quarter, comprised of 90 beds to existing facilities and 288 beds from two new facilities. Also, added seven new comprehensive treatment centers, extending the company's market reach to 170 CTCs across 33 states.
Focus on Quality and Safety
Commitment to quality and safety is a foundational element, with facilities licensed, accredited, and regularly inspected. Advanced data capabilities and a new integrated quality dashboard enhance care monitoring.
Labor Cost Improvements
Premium pay declined both sequentially and year-over-year, indicating improvements in labor trends and staff retention.
Negative Updates
Underperforming Facilities
A small group of underperforming facilities affected same facility results, contributing a $20 million year-over-year headwind to the 2025 adjusted EBITDA.
Startup Losses
Higher startup losses reported on both a year-over-year and sequential basis due to the step-up in the number of newly constructed facilities.
Flat Revenue Per Patient Day Growth
Same facility revenue per patient day growth was roughly flat on a year-on-year basis, primarily due to the timing of supplemental payments.
Specialty Facility Revenue Decline
Specialty revenue declined 5% in the first quarter, mostly driven by facility closures over the past several quarters.
Company Guidance
During Acadia Healthcare's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported revenue of $770.5 million, slightly above the midpoint of their guidance range of $765 million to $775 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $134.2 million, near the high end of their $130 million to $235 million guidance range. Same facility patient days increased by 2.2%, despite a negative leap year impact of approximately 110 basis points. Acadia reaffirmed its full-year guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The company added 378 new beds in the quarter, contributing to its strategic growth initiatives, and plans to add between 801,000 total beds for the full year. Additionally, Acadia opened seven new comprehensive treatment centers, expanding its reach to 170 centers across 33 states. The company emphasized its commitment to quality and safety, utilizing advanced data capabilities to monitor over 50 key performance indicators. Acadia also highlighted its efforts in employee engagement and talent acquisition, noting a decline in premium pay on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Acadia Healthcare Secures New $1 Billion Credit Facility
Neutral
Feb 28, 2025

On February 28, 2025, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement with JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., establishing a $1 billion senior secured revolving credit facility and a $650 million senior secured term loan facility, both maturing on February 28, 2030. This agreement replaces the previous credit arrangement from March 2021 and is designed to refinance existing obligations, with options for incremental facilities upon meeting certain conditions. The agreement includes financial covenants and security provisions, impacting the company’s financial strategy and operational flexibility.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.