Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) AI Stock Analysis

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Acadia Healthcare

(NASDAQ:ACHC)

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:

$24.50

▲(13.27%Upside)

Acadia Healthcare's overall stock score is driven by a solid financial performance, despite profitability challenges and negative cash flow. The bearish technical indicators weigh heavily on the score, alongside mixed earnings call outcomes. The stock's valuation suggests potential upside, balancing the risks highlighted by the technical analysis.

Positive Factors

Earnings

The Q1 EBITDA beat should be sufficient to re-ignite investor confidence and improve visibility in the business.

Market Demand

Demand for mental health remains strong, and management's focus on bed additions should translate to continued organic volume growth.

Stock Repurchase

Management repurchased $47MM worth of stock in Q1, with expectations of further buyback activity if the stock's valuation remains discounted.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

ACHC shares are down 35% YTD and are trading at a heavy discount, highlighting the lack of investor confidence in the company's ability to achieve FY25 financial targets.

Legal and Financial Risks

Potential DOJ fines and deal costs add extra financial burdens that need to be considered.

Revenue Uncertainty

Medicaid exposure and the $200M of supplemental payment revenue present a point of uncertainty and risk for a potential buyer.

Acadia Healthcare (ACHC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$2.09B

Dividend YieldN/A

Average Volume (3M)2.60M

Price to Earnings (P/E)11.1

Beta (1Y)0.78

Revenue Growth5.48%

EPS GrowthN/A

CountryUS

Employees25,500

SectorHealthcare

Sector Strength42

IndustryMedical - Care Facilities

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.40

Shares Outstanding92,122,160

10 Day Avg. Volume1,322,508

30 Day Avg. Volume2,601,597

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio-0.97

Price to Book (P/B)0.71

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio-3.92

Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.02

Enterprise Value/Revenue0.34

Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.22

Enterprise Value/Ebitda2.34

Forecast

1Y Price Target

$41.91

Price Target Upside93.76% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering11

Acadia Healthcare Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAcadia Healthcare Company, Inc. provides behavioral healthcare services in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers behavioral healthcare services to its patients in various settings, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, specialty treatment facilities, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. As of March 31, 2022, it operated a network of 238 behavioral healthcare facilities with approximately 10,600 beds. The company was founded in 2005 and is headquartered in Franklin, Tennessee.

How the Company Makes MoneyAcadia Healthcare generates revenue primarily through the provision of behavioral healthcare services. The company's key revenue streams include payments for patient services rendered at its various facilities, including inpatient psychiatric hospitals, residential treatment centers, and outpatient clinics. These payments are typically received from a combination of private payers, government programs like Medicaid and Medicare, and commercial insurance providers. Additionally, Acadia Healthcare may form partnerships with other healthcare providers or governmental bodies to enhance service delivery and expand its market presence, which can also contribute to its revenue. The company's financial performance is influenced by factors such as occupancy rates in its facilities, reimbursement rates from payers, and the overall demand for behavioral healthcare services.

Acadia Healthcare Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 12, 2025

(Q1-2025)

% Change Since: -16.29%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral

The call presented a balanced view with strong revenue and EBITDA performance and effective expansion initiatives, but faced challenges with underperforming facilities and flat revenue per patient day growth.

Q1-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Revenue and EBITDA Performance

First quarter revenue of $770.5 million came in just above the midpoint of the outlook range, while adjusted EBITDA of $134.2 million was near the high end of the outlook range.

Patient Day Growth

Same facility patient days grew 2.2% in the first quarter, despite an unfavorable leap year impact of approximately 110 basis points.

Expansion Initiatives

Added 378 new beds in the first quarter, comprised of 90 beds to existing facilities and 288 beds from two new facilities. Also, added seven new comprehensive treatment centers, extending the company's market reach to 170 CTCs across 33 states.

Focus on Quality and Safety

Commitment to quality and safety is a foundational element, with facilities licensed, accredited, and regularly inspected. Advanced data capabilities and a new integrated quality dashboard enhance care monitoring.

Labor Cost Improvements

Premium pay declined both sequentially and year-over-year, indicating improvements in labor trends and staff retention.

Negative Updates

Underperforming Facilities

A small group of underperforming facilities affected same facility results, contributing a $20 million year-over-year headwind to the 2025 adjusted EBITDA.

Startup Losses

Higher startup losses reported on both a year-over-year and sequential basis due to the step-up in the number of newly constructed facilities.

Flat Revenue Per Patient Day Growth

Same facility revenue per patient day growth was roughly flat on a year-on-year basis, primarily due to the timing of supplemental payments.

Specialty Facility Revenue Decline

Specialty revenue declined 5% in the first quarter, mostly driven by facility closures over the past several quarters.

Company Guidance

During Acadia Healthcare's first quarter 2025 earnings call, the company reported revenue of $770.5 million, slightly above the midpoint of their guidance range of $765 million to $775 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $134.2 million, near the high end of their $130 million to $235 million guidance range. Same facility patient days increased by 2.2%, despite a negative leap year impact of approximately 110 basis points. Acadia reaffirmed its full-year guidance for both revenue and adjusted EBITDA. The company added 378 new beds in the quarter, contributing to its strategic growth initiatives, and plans to add between 801,000 total beds for the full year. Additionally, Acadia opened seven new comprehensive treatment centers, expanding its reach to 170 centers across 33 states. The company emphasized its commitment to quality and safety, utilizing advanced data capabilities to monitor over 50 key performance indicators. Acadia also highlighted its efforts in employee engagement and talent acquisition, noting a decline in premium pay on both a sequential and year-over-year basis.

Acadia Healthcare Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Acadia Healthcare demonstrates strong revenue growth and improved profitability metrics in 2024, indicating a positive financial trajectory. The balance sheet reflects a healthy capital structure, though rising debt levels warrant caution. Cash flow management shows potential volatility, with significant capital expenditures impacting free cash flow. Overall, the financial health of the company is solid with areas for cautious monitoring.

Income Statement

Positive

Acadia Healthcare has shown a strong revenue growth trend, with a significant increase in Total Revenue from 2023 to 2024, indicating robust top-line growth. However, the net profit margin has fluctuated, with a notable improvement in 2024 following a loss in 2023. The gross profit margin remains consistent, reflecting stable core profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have significantly improved in 2024, suggesting enhanced operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The company's balance sheet shows a manageable debt-to-equity ratio, with an increasing trend in stockholders' equity. The equity ratio indicates a solid capital structure. However, the total debt has increased over the years, which could pose potential leverage risks if not managed. The return on equity has improved significantly in 2024, showcasing effective utilization of equity capital.

Cash Flow

Neutral

Cash flow analysis reveals a stable operating cash flow, although there was a decline from 2023 to 2024. The free cash flow has seen improvement, but the significant capital expenditures and the fluctuation in free cash flow growth rate highlight potential volatility in cash management. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong in 2024, indicating efficient cash generation relative to net income.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
3.15B	2.93B	2.61B	2.31B	2.09B
	Gross Profit
711.98M	682.61M	1.12B	979.89M	848.17M
	EBIT
522.28M	506.60M	443.90M	414.47M	365.61M
	EBITDA
607.84M	189.11M	561.67M	459.47M	437.16M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
255.61M	-21.67M	273.14M	190.63M	143.19M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
76.31M	100.07M	97.65M	133.81M	378.70M
	Total Assets
5.96B	5.36B	4.99B	4.77B	6.50B
	Total Debt
2.09B	1.51B	1.53B	1.64B	3.23B
	Net Debt
2.01B	1.41B	1.43B	1.50B	2.85B
	Total Liabilities
2.77B	2.47B	2.09B	2.19B	4.60B
	Stockholders Equity
3.07B	2.78B	2.81B	2.52B	1.90B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-560.69M	38.21M	84.42M	129.67M	442.19M
	Operating Cash Flow
129.69M	462.34M	380.57M	374.48M	658.81M
	Investing Cash Flow
-736.48M	-397.22M	-305.83M	1.02B	-281.84M
	Financing Cash Flow
583.02M	-62.70M	-110.90M	-1.64B	-51.50M

Acadia Healthcare Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price21.63

Price Trends

50DMA

25.19

Negative

100DMA

32.09

Negative

200DMA

43.73

Negative

Market Momentum

MACD

-0.76

Positive

RSI

36.51

Neutral

STOCH

10.73

Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACHC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 21.63 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.09, below the 50-day MA of 25.19, and below the 200-day MA of 43.73, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.76 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.73 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACHC.

Acadia Healthcare Risk Analysis

Acadia Healthcare disclosed 54 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Acadia Healthcare reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.

Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy

Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks

We are a holding company with no operations and rely upon our subsidiaries to provide us with the funds necessary to meet our financial obligations. Liabilities of any one or more of our subsidiaries could be imposed upon us or our other subsidiaries. Q4, 2024

Acadia Healthcare Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (53)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ADUS	77 Outperform	$2.04B	25.05	9.18%	―	11.38%	10.29%
AMED	71 Outperform	$3.10B	34.97	7.85%	―	5.34%	―
SEM	64 Neutral	$1.95B	11.27	10.38%	2.45%	-8.86%	-36.22%
SGRY	63 Neutral	$3.00B	―	-10.43%	―	13.54%	-30732.00%
LFST	63 Neutral	$2.29B	―	-2.47%	―	16.31%	79.86%
ACHC	60 Neutral	$2.09B	11.11	6.35%	―	5.48%	―
Sector *	53 Neutral	$5.24B	3.28	-44.98%	2.81%	16.82%	-0.32%

* Healthcare Sector Average

Performance Comparison

ACHC

Acadia Healthcare

21.63

-46.88

-68.43%

ADUS

Addus Homecare

111.20

-2.27

-2.00%

AMED

Amedisys

94.49

2.52

2.74%

SEM

Select Medical

15.14

-3.04

-16.72%

SGRY

Surgery Partners

23.39

-3.10

-11.70%

LFST

Lifestance Health Group

5.88

0.37

6.72%

Acadia Healthcare Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings

Acadia Healthcare Approves Key Proposals at Annual Meeting

Neutral

May 30, 2025

Acadia Healthcare held its annual meeting of stockholders on May 29, 2025, where several key proposals were voted on. The election of Class II directors, amendments to the incentive compensation plan, and advisory votes on executive compensation were approved. Additionally, the frequency of advisory votes on executive compensation was set to annually, and Ernst & Young LLP was ratified as the independent registered public accounting firm for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACHC) stock is a Hold with a $77.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Acadia Healthcare stock, see the ACHC Stock Forecast page.

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.