ACADIA Pharmaceuticals (ACAD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $3.56B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.75M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.16
• Revenue Growth: 12.69%
• EPS Growth: 100.80%
• Country: US
• Employees: 653
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): 1.60
• Shares Outstanding: 170,494,610
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,748,612
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,747,996
• PEG Ratio: 0.17
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.69
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.22
• P/FCF Ratio: 43.02
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.96
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 3.21
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 3.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 26.16
• 1Y Price Target: $32.53
• Price Target Upside: 55.65% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.45
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $1.25B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $26.00 ▲(24.40% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 03/05/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 03/05/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (profitability inflection and strong balance sheet) and constructive 2026 growth guidance from the earnings call, tempered by weak technical trend signals and cash-flow variability. Valuation is supportive with a modest P/E, while the corporate event is a minor positive.

Positive Factors

Strong cash position

A year-end cash balance of $820M provides durable financial runway to fund commercial launches, expanded field teams, and multiple R&D programs without near-term reliance on capital markets. This supports execution risk mitigation and strategic optionality over the next 2–6 months and beyond.

Sustained revenue growth and profitability

Crossing $1B in adjusted revenue and sequential acceleration demonstrates commercial scale and demand durability for core products. A shift to sustained profitability improves reinvestment capacity, reduces financing dependence, and underpins medium‑term margin recovery if revenue growth persists.

Diversifying commercial footprint and pipeline catalysts

A deep CNS pipeline plus new DAYBUE STIX formulation and expanding named‑patient programs broaden revenue streams beyond NUPLAZID. Multiple upcoming catalysts (Phase II readouts, formulation launches) create durable upside potential and reduce single‑product dependence if trials and launches progress.

Negative Factors

Cash‑flow variability

Despite positive operating cash in 2024–2025, a sharp FCF decline in 2025 signals working‑capital swings or timing/non‑cash items that can strain near‑term liquidity management. Variable cash conversion complicates planning for sustained SG&A and R&D spend without eroding cash buffers.

Material SG&A step‑up

A large planned increase in SG&A to support launches and field expansion heightens operating leverage and requires sustained sales growth to preserve margins. If uptake underperforms, elevated fixed selling costs could compress profitability over the medium term.

Regulatory uncertainty for DAYBUE in EU

A negative CHMP trend vote and an expected adverse opinion create durable commercialization delays and uncertainty in Europe. Excluding EU sales from 2026 guidance reduces near‑term upside and increases reliance on U.S. and named‑patient channels, lengthening time to realize projected global sales.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc., a biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the development and commercialization of small molecule drugs that address unmet medical needs in central nervous system disorders. The company offers NUPLAZID (pimavanserin) for the treatment of hallucinations and delusions associated with Parkinson's disease psychosis. It's pipeline include, pimavanserin, under phase 3 development for the treatment of Alzheimer's disease psychosis, and negative symptoms of schizophrenia; Trofinetide, a novel synthetic analog, under phase 3 development for the treatment of Rett syndrome; ACP-044, a novel first-in-class orally administered non-opioid analgesic, under phase 2 development for treating acute and chronic pain; and ACP-319, a positive allosteric modulator of the muscarinic receptor, under phase 1 development for treating schizophrenia and cognition in Alzheimer's. ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in San Diego, California.

How the Company Makes Money

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals generates revenue primarily through the sales of its flagship product, NUPLAZID, which is marketed in the United States and other markets where it has received regulatory approval. The company employs a direct-to-consumer and direct-to-healthcare provider sales strategy, targeting neurologists and psychiatrists involved in the treatment of Parkinson's disease and related disorders. Additionally, ACADIA may engage in collaborations and partnerships with other pharmaceutical companies or research institutions to co-develop new therapies, which can provide milestone payments and royalties on future product sales. The company's revenue model is further supported by ongoing clinical trials and research that may lead to the expansion of its product portfolio with new indications or drugs, thus creating additional revenue streams.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong fundamental inflection with accelerating revenue growth and a shift to sustained profitability in 2024–2025, supported by a conservatively financed balance sheet (low leverage, rising equity). The main drag is cash-flow volatility, including a sharp free-cash-flow decline in 2025 and operating cash flow running relatively low versus earnings.

Income Statement

Revenue growth has been strong, accelerating from moderate growth in 2024 to a sharp step-up in 2025. Profitability has also materially improved versus the 2020–2023 loss-making period, with 2024 and 2025 delivering positive operating profit and strong net profitability. Offsetting this, operating margin performance is somewhat uneven year-to-year (notably 2025 operating profit is lower than 2024 despite higher revenue), indicating some volatility in underlying cost structure.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively financed with very low debt relative to equity and a sizable equity base that has grown meaningfully into 2025. Returns on equity turned strongly positive in 2024–2025 after being negative in 2020–2023, reflecting the shift into sustained profitability. The main weakness is that equity and returns were volatile earlier in the period, but current leverage is low and financial flexibility appears solid.

Cash Flow

Cash generation has improved substantially from negative operating and free cash flow in 2020–2022 to solidly positive levels in 2024–2025, and free cash flow is close to net income in both 2024 and 2025. However, free cash flow dropped sharply in 2025 versus 2024 (negative growth rate), and operating cash flow remains relatively low compared with reported earnings, suggesting working-capital timing and/or non-cash items are still creating variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.07B	957.80M	726.44M	517.24M	484.14M
Gross Profit	982.51M	875.96M	680.71M	507.07M	465.00M
EBITDA	138.90M	100.16M	-67.83M	-221.57M	-167.09M
Net Income	391.00M	226.45M	-61.29M	-215.97M	-167.87M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.56B	1.19B	748.96M	587.81M	700.12M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	819.69M	755.99M	438.87M	416.82M	520.71M
Total Debt	52.19M	51.99M	57.20M	62.00M	64.43M
Total Liabilities	336.81M	454.96M	317.20M	187.40M	159.23M
Stockholders Equity	1.23B	732.79M	431.75M	400.41M	540.89M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	105.15M	157.20M	-23.35M	-114.03M	-126.78M
Operating Cash Flow	109.84M	157.72M	16.70M	-114.03M	-125.66M
Investing Cash Flow	-302.56M	-30.54M	32.00M	73.24M	-71.10M
Financing Cash Flow	49.88M	6.84M	25.13M	8.20M	18.16M

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 20.90
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ACAD, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 20.9 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.98, below the 50-day MA of 24.40, and below the 200-day MA of 23.77, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.90 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.90 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 15.14 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ACAD.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
KRYS	81 Outperform	$7.49B	34.71	18.69%	―	54.51%	275.94%
ACAD	71 Outperform	$3.56B	11.57	41.90%	―	12.69%	100.80%
ARWR	69 Neutral	$8.06B	75.44	36.12%	―	23258.15%	99.12%
PTCT	65 Neutral	$5.58B	8.85	-362.44%	―	97.54%	―
ACLX	64 Neutral	$6.70B	-16.04	-55.42%	―	-76.96%	-425.41%
MLTX	55 Neutral	$1.20B	-3.74	-67.12%	―	―	-157.74%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Corporate Events

Acadia Pharmaceuticals Appoints Jonathan Poole to Board, Audit Committee

On March 3, 2026, Acadia Pharmaceuticals’ board appointed Jonathan M. Poole as a Class II director to fill a vacancy and as a member of the Audit Committee, with his initial term running through the 2027 annual shareholder meeting. The move strengthens the company’s governance structure and audit oversight at a time when board expertise and independence are key considerations for shareholders in the biopharmaceutical industry.

Under Acadia’s non-employee director compensation policy, Poole will receive prorated annual cash retainers for board and audit committee service, along with an initial equity grant of $200,000 that vests over three years and an additional prorated annual equity grant of $95,300 that vests over one year. Beginning with the 2026 annual meeting, he will be eligible for recurring annual equity awards with a $400,000 target value, aligning his compensation with shareholder interests through long-term incentive structures and standard indemnification protections.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACAD) stock is a Hold with a $24.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock, see the ACAD Stock Forecast page.

ACADIA Pharmaceuticals Clarifies Form 8-K Disclosure Treatment

In a recent regulatory filing, ACADIA Pharmaceuticals specified that certain information previously disclosed in Item 2.02 is being incorporated by reference into Item 7.01 of its Current Report on Form 8-K. The company also clarified that the information in this report, including the referenced exhibit, is not considered “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and will not be automatically incorporated into other securities law filings, limiting potential liability and defining how this disclosure may be used in future regulatory documents.

The most recent analyst rating on (ACAD) stock is a Buy with a $33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on ACADIA Pharmaceuticals stock, see the ACAD Stock Forecast page.