AIA Group (AAGIY) AI Stock Analysis

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AIA Group

(OTC:AAGIY)

Rating:76Outperform

Price Target:

$38.00

▲(11.18%Upside)

AIA Group's overall score reflects its strong financial performance and positive market momentum. The recent earnings call underscores strategic growth and financial strength, although some challenges remain. The stock's valuation is attractive, balancing income and growth prospects.

AIA Group (AAGIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap

$90.29B

Dividend Yield2.48%

Average Volume (3M)346.98K

Price to Earnings (P/E)13.8

Beta (1Y)0.39

Revenue Growth7.35%

EPS Growth88.99%

CountryUS

Employees23,000

SectorFinancial

Sector Strength82

IndustryInsurance - Life

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)1.28

Shares Outstanding2,657,346,000

10 Day Avg. Volume112,376

30 Day Avg. Volume346,976

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.29

Price to Book (P/B)2.13

Price to Sales (P/S)0.00

P/FCF Ratio53.21

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price TargetN/A

Price Target UpsideN/A

Rating ConsensusN/A

Number of Analyst Covering0

AIA Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAIA Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides life insurance based financial services. The company offers life insurance, accident, and health insurance and savings plans; and employee benefits, credit life, and pension services to corporate clients. It also distributes investment and other financial services products. The company sells its products through a network of agents and partners in Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau, Thailand, Singapore, Brunei, Malaysia, Australia, Cambodia, Indonesia, Myanmar, New Zealand, the Philippines, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Vietnam, and India. AIA Group Limited was founded in 1919 and is based in Central, Hong Kong.

How the Company Makes MoneyAIA Group makes money primarily through the sale of life insurance policies and other related financial products. The company's revenue model is largely driven by the premiums collected from policyholders. These premiums are invested in a diverse portfolio of assets, generating returns that contribute to the company's profitability. AIA also earns income from its investment-linked insurance policies, where part of the premium is invested in underlying funds that can yield returns. Additionally, AIA benefits from its extensive distribution network, which includes a mix of direct agents and partnerships with banks (bancassurance), thereby expanding its reach and customer base. The company also engages in strategic partnerships and acquisitions to bolster its market presence and enhance its service offerings, which further contribute to its earnings.

AIA Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 14, 2025

(Q4-2024)

% Change Since: 7.89%|

Next Earnings Date:Aug 21, 2025

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The earnings call was generally positive, highlighting strong growth in VONB, operating profit, and cash flow, alongside significant geographic expansion, particularly in China. However, challenges such as interest rate impacts and regulatory changes in Hong Kong moderated the outlook.

Q4-2024 Updates

Positive Updates

Record Value of New Business

Value of new business (VONB) was up by 18% to a record high of $4.7 billion.

Increased Operating Profit and Cash Flow

Operating profit after tax reached a record high, up by 12% per share, and underlying free surplus generation grew by 10% per share.

Significant Growth in Premier Agency and Partnerships

Premier agency contributed 74% of VONB with a 16% VONB growth, while bancassurance grew VONB by 39%.

Expansion into New Geographies in China

AIA received approvals for four new branches, adding another 100 million to the addressable market.

Negative Updates

Interest Rate Challenges

Lower interest rates in China and Thailand impacted financial results, with a $1.3 billion negative variance in investment return.

Pressure from Regulatory Changes

New guidance related to par policies in Hong Kong could impact the competitive landscape and financial results.

Company Guidance

The call provided comprehensive guidance on AIA's financial performance for 2024, highlighting significant growth across key metrics. The company achieved an 18% increase in the value of new business (VONB) to $4.7 billion, and a 9% per share rise in EV equity to $71.6 billion after returning $6.5 billion to shareholders. Operating profit after tax grew by 12% per share, while underlying free surplus generation, a crucial measure of cash generation, increased by 10% per share. AIA's capital management policy led to a recommended 10% increase in the final dividend per share and a new $1.6 billion share buyback. AIA's Premier Agency contributed 74% of VONB, with agency recruitment up by 18%. The bancassurance channel saw VONB growth of 28% to $1.3 billion, driven by advanced analytics and strategic partnerships. AIA Hong Kong and China were significant contributors, with VONB growth of 23% and 20% respectively. Overall, the results demonstrate AIA's strategic focus on profitable growth, leveraging digital tools and a robust distribution network to drive long-term shareholder value.

AIA Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary

AIA Group shows strong profitability and cash flow management, with a stable balance sheet, though it faces inconsistent revenue growth and a declining equity ratio which require attention.

Income Statement

Positive

AIA Group's income statement reflects strong profitability, with a solid gross profit margin due to consistent revenue streams. Net profit margin has improved, indicating effective cost management and operational efficiency. However, the revenue growth rate has been inconsistent, showing a decline in recent years, which could be a concern for future growth.

Balance Sheet

Positive

The balance sheet shows a healthy equity position with a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, which indicates controlled leverage and financial stability. Return on equity is decent, suggesting that the company is effectively using equity to generate profits, but the equity ratio has been declining, which could point to increased liabilities over time.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash flow analysis reveals strong free cash flow generation, which supports operational flexibility and potential for reinvestment. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is robust, indicating good cash conversion efficiency. However, recent fluctuations in free cash flow growth rate suggest potential volatility in cash generation capabilities.

Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Breakdown
Income Statement		Total Revenue
20.36B	20.59B	17.76B	46.36B	50.85B
	Gross Profit
20.36B	19.76B	17.76B	46.36B	50.85B
	EBIT
7.83B	5.75B	5.38B	8.01B	8.36B
	EBITDA
8.05B	5.46B	8.44B	11.07B	11.37B
	Net Income Common Stockholders
6.84B	3.76B	3.33B	7.43B	5.78B
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
106.39B	100.14B	8.02B	3.91B	4.40B
	Total Assets
305.45B	286.32B	270.47B	339.87B	326.12B
	Total Debt
13.67B	12.16B	11.21B	9.64B	7.87B
	Net Debt
5.57B	640.00M	3.19B	5.73B	3.46B
	Total Liabilities
264.64B	244.72B	11.21B	9.64B	7.87B
	Stockholders Equity
40.49B	41.11B	44.67B	60.47B	63.20B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
3.03B	10.59B	9.48B	3.27B	2.10B
	Operating Cash Flow
3.26B	10.92B	9.87B	3.91B	2.36B
	Investing Cash Flow
-945.00M	-2.14B	-817.00M	-2.78B	-1.22B
	Financing Cash Flow
-5.69B	-6.07B	-4.79B	-1.66B	392.00M

AIA Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Positive

Last Price34.18

Price Trends

50DMA

30.21

Positive

100DMA

29.55

Positive

200DMA

29.60

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

1.04

Negative

RSI

66.16

Neutral

STOCH

89.29

Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AAGIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.18 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.91, above the 50-day MA of 30.21, and above the 200-day MA of 29.60, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.16 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.29 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for AAGIY.

AIA Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (64)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
UNM	79 Outperform	$14.07B	9.44	14.68%	2.10%	1.69%	25.54%
MET	79 Outperform	$52.90B	12.79	16.08%	2.80%	8.77%	110.90%
PUK	77 Outperform	$30.32B	13.94	12.82%	1.97%	-14.78%	34.80%
AAGIY	76 Outperform	$90.29B	13.79	16.74%	2.48%	7.35%	88.99%
PRU	71 Outperform	$36.72B	16.42	8.04%	5.11%	2.47%	6.88%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$12.77B	9.77	7.59%	16985.66%	12.30%	-7.71%
AFL	64 Neutral	$55.26B	15.95	14.41%	2.11%	-12.66%	-29.30%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

AAGIY

AIA Group

34.18

5.11

17.58%

AFL

AFLAC

103.68

16.68

19.17%

MET

Metlife

79.93

11.87

17.44%

PRU

Prudential Financial

105.58

-6.93

-6.16%

PUK

Prudential

23.73

5.57

30.67%

UNM

Unum Group

81.48

31.02

61.47%

Glossary

OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.

NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.

UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.