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Zillow Group Inc Class A (ZG)
NASDAQ:ZG

Zillow Group Class A (ZG) AI Stock Analysis

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ZG

Zillow Group Class A

(NASDAQ:ZG)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$46.00
▲(5.67% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/05/26
The score is supported by improving financial performance and a strong earnings outlook with continued margin expansion, reinforced by positive capital return and liquidity actions. These positives are tempered by clearly bearish technical momentum and a very high P/E that elevates valuation risk.
Positive Factors
Improving profitability
Revenue growth resumed and EBITDA turned positive, signaling that core marketplace economics are scaling. This indicates durable operating leverage potential: as user engagement and monetization grow, profits can expand even if housing markets remain uneven, supporting sustainable earnings improvements.
High-growth Rentals franchise
Rentals is a durable growth engine: strong revenue growth, rapid share gains and 2.5M monthly rental listings show structural market share capture. A dominant rentals position strengthens recurring monetization and diversification away from cyclical for‑sale transaction volatility.
Strong balance sheet and liquidity flexibility
Low leverage, sizable equity and a fresh $500M revolving facility provide financial flexibility for investment, M&A or buybacks without stressing operations. Robust liquidity supports multi-year product investments and capital returns while cushioning housing-market cyclicality.
Negative Factors
Persistent legal expense headwind
Elevated and recurring legal costs reduce margin conversion and create earnings unpredictability. Persistent legal expense pressure can materially erode the operating‑margin gains from core growth initiatives and complicate planning for multi‑year margin targets.
Operating profit not yet consistently positive
Although EBITDA is positive, operating profit and ROE are only marginally improved and remain fragile. This implies earnings durability is not fully established; a weaker housing cycle or higher costs could push results back into losses, delaying sustainable return generation.
Cash flow volatility and FCF decline
FFO/FCF showed recent improvement but declined year‑over‑year and historical cash conversion has been uneven. Volatile free cash flow can constrain consistent reinvestment, dividends or buybacks and raises execution risk if market conditions worsen or working capital swings recur.

Zillow Group Class A (ZG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Zillow Group Class A Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionZillow Group, Inc., a digital real estate company, operates real estate brands on mobile applications and Websites in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Homes; Internet, Media & Technology; and Mortgages. The Homes segment is involved in resale of homes; and title and escrow services to home buyers and sellers, including title search procedures for title insurance policies, escrow, and other closing services. The IMT segment offers premier agent, rentals, and new construction marketplaces, as well as dotloop, display, and other advertising, as well as business software solutions. The Mortgage segment provides home loans; and marketing products including custom quote and connect services. Its portfolio of brands includes Zillow Rentals, Trulia, StreetEasy, Zillow Closing Services, HotPads, and Out East. The company was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.
How the Company Makes MoneyZillow Group primarily generates revenue by monetizing consumer traffic and user engagement across its real estate marketplace platforms. The company’s key revenue streams include: (1) IMT advertising and lead-generation: Zillow sells advertising products and customer acquisition services to real estate agents, teams, and brokerages, allowing them to promote their services and receive connections (leads) from home shoppers on Zillow’s platforms. Revenue in this area is driven by demand from real estate professionals, pricing of advertising/lead products, and the volume and intent of consumer traffic. (2) Rentals revenue: Zillow earns revenue from landlords and property managers through rental listings and related products that help market available rental units to prospective tenants and manage demand. This includes paid placement, subscriptions, and other listing-based monetization offerings tied to rental marketplace activity. (3) Mortgage-related revenue: Zillow offers marketplace tools that connect consumers with mortgage lenders and may earn revenue through advertising and lead/referral arrangements with participating lenders. (4) Other marketplace and ancillary revenue: Zillow may earn additional revenue from services that support transactions (for example, partner referrals or marketing arrangements connected to moving, home services, or other housing-adjacent offerings) where such products are available on its platforms. Zillow’s earnings are influenced by residential real estate and rental market conditions (transaction volumes, housing demand, interest rates), the effectiveness of its consumer-to-professional matching products, and relationships with real estate professionals, landlords/property managers, and lending partners that participate in its marketplaces.

Zillow Group Class A Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall, the call emphasized strong execution and growth: top-line acceleration (Q4 +18%, FY +16%), significant momentum in Rentals and mortgages, EBITDA and GAAP profitability, robust free cash flow and active capital return. Near‑term headwinds include elevated legal expenses, deliberate variable investments and a still‑subdued housing market, and some newer products (e.g., Zillow Pro) are early-stage with limited immediate revenue contribution. On balance, the substantial positive operational and financial progress outweighs the manageable near‑term challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q4 2025 revenue of $654 million, up 18% year-over-year and near the top of outlook; full-year 2025 revenue grew 16% year-over-year, consistent with mid‑teens guidance.
Profitability and Margin Expansion
Q4 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $149 million with a 23% EBITDA margin (up 260 basis points year-over-year); full-year EBITDA margin expanded ~180 basis points and company reported $23 million GAAP net income for 2025 (first full-year profitability).
Rentals: High Growth and Market Share Gains
Rentals revenue grew 45% year-over-year in Q4 to $168 million and 39% for full year 2025 ($630 million); multifamily revenue grew 63% in Q4 and 58% for the year; estimated share of rental listings increased to 63% (from 54% in 2024) and Zillow had 2.5 million average monthly active rental listings in Q4.
For Sale and Mortgages Momentum
For Sale revenue of $475 million in Q4 (+11% YoY) and $1.9 billion for full year (+9% YoY); mortgages revenue grew 39% in Q4 to $57 million and 37% for the full year, driven by purchase origination volume growth (67% YoY in Q4, 53% full year).
Product / Engagement Wins
Enhanced markets produced 44% of connections in Q4 (up from 21% a year ago); BuyAbility enrolled 3.6 million users (up from 2.9M at end of Q3); Follow Up Boss sent >7 million AI-powered messages; Showcase adoption on 3.7% of new listings (up from 1.7% a year ago).
Strong Free Cash Flow and Capital Returns
Generated $420 million of free cash flow in 2025 (up 36% YoY); ended 2025 with $1.3 billion in cash and investments; repurchased $670 million of shares in 2025 (total repurchases through 2025 of $2.6 billion at average $50).
Operational Discipline and Cost Control
Total fixed costs held approximately flat year-over-year in Q4 despite 18% revenue growth; full-year fixed costs ~ $1 billion (up 2% YoY) and share-based compensation declined (Q4 SBC down 20% YoY; full-year SBC $390M, down 13% YoY), contributing to net income margin expansion.
2026 Outlook and Mid‑Cycle Targets
Q1 2026 revenue guidance $700–710M (implied +18% YoY); full-year 2026 expected mid‑teens revenue growth with continued EBITDA margin expansion; reiterated mid‑cycle targets of $5B revenue and ~45% EBITDA in a normalized housing market.
Negative Updates
Elevated Legal Expenses
Legal costs were higher-than-expected in Q4 (contributed to Q4 EBITDA expenses being slightly above outlook) and management expects elevated legal expense to persist in 2026, creating an approximate 200 basis point EBITDA margin headwind in Q1 and ~100 basis points for the full year.
Near‑Term Margin Pressure from Investments
Company plans to increase variable costs in early 2026 (hiring rental sales staff and loan officers, increased lead acquisition via Redfin syndication), which will weigh on margins in the first half of 2026 before leverage benefits later in the year.
Housing Market Remains Challenging
Management is planning for the For Sale environment to 'bounce along the bottom'; existing home sales were flat at ~4.1M in 2025 and industry purchase mortgage origination volumes were roughly flat in Q4 — limiting near-term market-driven upside.
Zillow Pro Early Stage — Limited Near‑Term Revenue Impact
Zillow Pro is in beta with nationwide rollout planned for H2 2026; management does not expect it to be a meaningful financial contributor in 2026 while tests and adoption continue.
Q4 Cost Overruns and Legal Drag Affecting Quarterly Results
Q4 EBITDA expenses of $505 million were slightly above outlook primarily due to legal expenses; management highlighted legal costs as a reason past beats were muted vs. earlier quarters.
Execution and Ramp Risks for New Hires
Zillow added ~40% more loan officers in 2025 (productivity up 11% despite ramp), but heavy hiring and ramping of sales and loan officer teams could temporarily dilute per‑head productivity and margins.
Company Guidance
Zillow guided Q1 2026 revenue of $700–710M (≈+18% YoY at the midpoint) with For Sale growth expected in line to slightly better than Q4 (residential growth in the high single‑digits and mortgages revenue ≈+40%) and Rentals revenue ≈+40% YoY; Q1 EBITDA is guided to $160–175M (~24% margin at the midpoint), implying EBITDA expenses of $535–540M (up from $505M in Q4) with an estimated ~200 bps legal‑expense headwind in Q1 and roughly a 100 bps legal drag for the full year; for full year 2026 Zillow expects mid‑teens revenue growth, about 30% Rentals growth, continued EBITDA margin expansion (consensus implies ~200 bps of expansion), a fixed‑cost base of ~$1B, variable costs to grow ahead of revenue in H1 then trend toward in‑line in H2, share‑based compensation down >10% YoY, and it reiterated its mid‑cycle targets of $5B revenue and ~45% EBITDA margins in a normalized housing market.

Zillow Group Class A Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fundamentals are improving: revenue growth resumed, EBITDA turned solidly positive, and net losses narrowed to near breakeven/positive. Balance sheet strength (low leverage and sizable equity) supports resilience, though EBIT is still slightly negative and free cash flow declined year over year, indicating the earnings/cash profile is not fully consistent yet.
Income Statement
62
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue rose strongly versus the prior year (about +4%), and profitability is clearly improving: EBITDA turned solidly positive and losses narrowed materially from 2024, with a small return to net income. That said, operating profit remains slightly negative and net margin is still around breakeven, indicating the earnings profile is not yet consistently durable.
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
Leverage is very low in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) with a modest debt load relative to equity, a meaningful improvement versus prior years when debt levels were higher. Equity remains sizable versus total assets, providing balance-sheet flexibility. The main weak point is that returns on equity are still slightly negative in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months), reflecting that profitability is only recently stabilizing.
Cash Flow
72
Positive
TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) cash generation is healthy, with positive operating cash flow and positive free cash flow. However, free cash flow declined versus the prior year (roughly -11%), and cash conversion is not consistently strong across years (including a notably weak/negative operating cash flow year in 2021), suggesting some volatility in underlying cash dynamics despite the recent improvement.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.58B2.24B1.95B1.96B2.13B
Gross Profit1.92B1.71B1.52B1.59B1.81B
EBITDA261.00M179.00M104.00M130.00M382.00M
Net Income23.00M-112.00M-158.00M-101.00M-528.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets5.68B5.83B6.65B6.56B10.70B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.29B1.86B2.81B3.36B2.83B
Total Debt536.00M660.00M1.83B1.87B1.60B
Total Liabilities801.00M981.00M2.13B2.08B5.35B
Stockholders Equity4.88B4.85B4.53B4.48B5.34B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow235.00M285.00M189.00M4.36B-3.28B
Operating Cash Flow368.00M428.00M354.00M4.50B-3.18B
Investing Cash Flow-6.00M395.00M25.00M-1.53B1.09B
Financing Cash Flow-674.00M-1.23B-352.00M-4.34B3.15B

Zillow Group Class A Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price43.53
Price Trends
50DMA
53.17
Negative
100DMA
61.46
Negative
200DMA
68.48
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.24
Negative
RSI
40.69
Neutral
STOCH
72.05
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For ZG, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 43.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.47, below the 50-day MA of 53.17, and below the 200-day MA of 68.48, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.24 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 40.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.05 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for ZG.

Zillow Group Class A Risk Analysis

Zillow Group Class A disclosed 49 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Zillow Group Class A reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Zillow Group Class A Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
$1.46B13.2219.96%5.35%33.74%
66
Neutral
$10.53B717.690.47%15.17%75.90%
64
Neutral
$1.35B15.505.63%17.38%
62
Neutral
$10.53B717.590.47%15.17%75.90%
60
Neutral
$48.67B4.58-11.27%4.14%2.83%-41.78%
51
Neutral
$554.45M-14.97-12.56%6.65%50.32%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
ZG
Zillow Group Class A
43.53
-28.77
-39.79%
YELP
Yelp
24.56
-12.26
-33.30%
Z
Zillow Group Class C
43.95
-29.70
-40.33%
TRVG
trivago
2.72
-2.55
-48.39%
NXDR
Nextdoor Holdings
1.43
-0.31
-17.82%

Zillow Group Class A Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
Zillow Group Expands Share Repurchase Authorization for 2026
Positive
Mar 5, 2026

Zillow Group has expanded its capital return efforts, with the board on March 4, 2026 authorizing the repurchase of up to an additional $1.25 billion of its Class A common stock and Class C capital stock. From January 1 to March 4, 2026, the company bought back 3.8 million Class A shares at an average of $47.84 and 9.7 million Class C shares at an average of $45.92, spending $626 million and leaving $1.3 billion in remaining repurchase capacity as of March 4, 2026.

The company also reiterated that investors should monitor its investor relations website, news blog and social media accounts as key channels for potentially material disclosures alongside traditional SEC filings and earnings communications. These steps highlight Zillow Group’s active balance-sheet management and evolving investor communication strategy, with implications for shareholder returns and transparency in how the company shares financial and corporate updates.

The most recent analyst rating on (ZG) stock is a Hold with a $46.10 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Zillow Group Class A stock, see the ZG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Zillow Group Secures New $500 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Jan 30, 2026

On January 30, 2026, Zillow Group, Inc. entered into a new Credit Agreement establishing a secured, $500 million revolving credit facility for subsidiary Zillow, Inc., with the option to expand the facility by an additional $250 million and a maturity date of January 30, 2031. The facility, which had no outstanding borrowings as of its signing, can be drawn, repaid and redrawn without penalty and will bear interest at either a base rate plus 0.25%–0.75% or SOFR plus 1.25%–1.75%, depending on Zillow’s total net leverage, and is subject to a 0.25% commitment fee on unused amounts. The agreement includes customary covenants and a financial leverage cap of 3.75:1.00, with a temporary step-up allowed following qualifying acquisitions, as well as standard events of default that could trigger acceleration of obligations. The credit line is guaranteed by Zillow Group, MFTB Holdco, Inc. and certain subsidiaries, secured by a first-priority lien on substantially all of their assets, and is intended to provide added financial flexibility for general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening Zillow’s liquidity position and balance sheet resilience.

The most recent analyst rating on (ZG) stock is a Hold with a $72.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Zillow Group Class A stock, see the ZG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 05, 2026