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Yara International (YARIY)
OTHER OTC:YARIY
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Yara International
(OTC:YARIY)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$32.00
▲(78.07% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance in 2025 (profit and free cash flow rebound with manageable leverage) and strong technical momentum (price above key moving averages with positive MACD). This is tempered by cyclical earnings/cash-flow variability, a modest valuation/income profile (P/E ~16.5 and ~1% yield), and earnings-call risks around regulatory uncertainty, near-term demand timing, and project/working-capital pressures.
Positive Factors
Rebounding cash generation
A material recovery in operating cash flow and nearly $1.0B of free cash flow in 2025 strengthens Yara’s ability to fund maintenance and growth CapEx, sustain the 50% cash dividend policy, and absorb cyclical troughs. Over 2–6 months this underpins capital allocation optionality and balance-sheet resilience.
Manageable leverage and sizable equity base
Moderate net debt and a sizable equity cushion provide financial flexibility for dividends, project financing and potential buybacks without immediate refinancing pressure. This balance-sheet capacity supports long-term strategic investments and credit stability even if earnings swing with the cycle.
Strong carbon/emissions positioning
A favorable emissions footprint and a stock of ETS allowances through ~2029 give Yara competitive advantage under CBAM and tightening carbon regimes. This reduces compliance cost risk versus higher‑intensity competitors and supports export competitiveness and longer‑term margin resilience as regulation evolves.
Negative Factors
Cyclical earnings and cash-flow volatility
Yara’s earnings, returns and cash generation swing materially with fertilizer markets; strong 2022 and 2025 contrasts with near break‑even 2024. This cyclicality reduces predictability of margins and free cash flow across planning horizons, complicating capital allocation, payout sustainability and through‑cycle return expectations.
Large project cost and timing risk (U.S. decarbonized ammonia)
A major U.S. decarbonization project with uncertain final capex and timing creates execution risk: higher-than-expected costs or delays would defer returns, absorb cash or require additional funding, and slow Yara’s transition to low‑carbon production—affecting competitiveness and long‑term margin improvement plans.
Working-capital seasonality and FCF sensitivity
Significant seasonal builds in receivables and inventory tied to pre‑buying and price moves make free cash flow timing volatile. This recurring working‑capital sensitivity can strain liquidity in troughs, limit near‑term reinvestment or distributions, and increase reliance on favorable seasonality to convert reported earnings into cash.
Yara International (YARIY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.81B
Dividend Yield1.16%
Average Volume (3M)2.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.2
Beta (1Y)0.36
Revenue Growth7.55%
EPS Growth34.28%
CountryUS
Employees16,624
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryAgricultural Inputs
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.58
Shares Outstanding509,451,260
10 Day Avg. Volume0
30 Day Avg. Volume2,323
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.38
Price to Sales (P/S)1.33
P/FCF Ratio21.74
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.22
Enterprise Value/Revenue1.16
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit4.77
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.79
Forecast
1Y Price TargetN/A
Price Target UpsideN/A
Rating ConsensusN/A
Number of Analyst Covering0
EPS Forecast (FY)2.36
Revenue Forecast (FY)$15.87B
Yara International Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionYara International ASA is a global leader in crop nutrition and a key player in the agricultural sector. Founded in Norway in 1905, the company specializes in the production and distribution of nitrogen-based fertilizers, as well as providing sustainable crop nutrition solutions. Yara operates in various segments, including fertilizers, crop protection, and digital farming, with a commitment to sustainability and innovation to enhance agricultural productivity worldwide.
How the Company Makes MoneyYara primarily makes money by manufacturing, marketing, and selling crop nutrition products and other nitrogen-based solutions. Its largest revenue stream comes from sales of mineral fertilizers—especially nitrogen fertilizers (e.g., nitrate-based products) and compound fertilizers—sold to distributors, retailers, and large growers across multiple regions; revenue is generally recognized from product volumes sold at market-linked prices. The company also generates revenue from industrial and environmental applications of nitrogen chemistry, selling products such as ammonia and other nitrogen-based chemicals used by industrial customers and for emissions-reduction/abatement uses. In addition, Yara earns income from trading activities and optimization of its global supply chain (including sourcing, blending, and distributing fertilizers and raw materials), leveraging its production assets and logistics footprint to capture margins between input costs and selling prices. Key factors influencing earnings include global crop nutrient demand, fertilizer selling prices, volumes shipped, and input costs for energy and feedstocks (notably natural gas for ammonia production), as well as the utilization and efficiency of its manufacturing plants and distribution network. Specific details on significant partnerships are null.
Yara International Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 24, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call balanced clear commercial and operational strengths (strong Q4 Europe demand, production uptime, tight global nitrogen market, disciplined capital allocation and carbon position) against notable near‑term and medium‑term risks (CBAM political uncertainty, Q1 seasonality/stocking effects, NPK premium pressure, working capital build, and cost/timing risk on a major U.S. decarbonization project). Management’s tone was cautiously constructive: confident on market fundamentals and execution but circumspect about regulatory and project cost risk.Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 Europe Demand and Price Momentum
Yara reported strong Q4 sales in Europe driven largely by customer and importer positioning ahead of CBAM (effective Jan 1), which contributed to price increases across products in Q4.
Deliveries Ahead Year‑over‑Year
Deliveries were approximately 7% ahead as of end‑December versus the prior year, leaving roughly half of seasonal demand still to be purchased heading into spring.
High Urea Export Prices and Tight Global Market
U.S. Gulf urea pricing near $500/ton is attracting imports and contributing to a globally tight nitrogen market; Chinese export volumes rose ~5 million tonnes in 2025, yet global supply‑demand remained tight.
Strong Plant Uptime and Production
Yara runs facilities continuously where margins are positive; management reports very strong uptime and higher production productivity, contributing to slightly higher sales and modest inventory build.
Capital Allocation and Growth Priority — U.S. Projects
Yara reiterated a capital framework with ~USD 1.2 billion annual CapEx guidance, prioritizing U.S. ammonia projects (including Air Products partnership) and energy/efficiency investments tied to decarbonization.
Balance Sheet/Cash Policy Flexibility
Net debt is below the stated range, supporting the company’s dividend policy (target ~50% cash dividend of net income) and creating optionality for buybacks or accretive investments.
Carbon & Emissions Positioning
Yara holds roughly 6 million ETS credits in the bank (covering expected needs out to ~2029), and many of Yara’s European plants have CO2 intensities below import benchmarks, giving a relative advantage under CBAM.
Maintenance CapEx Guidance
Maintenance/scheduled CapEx for 2026 is higher (~USD 200 million more vs 2025) but still within the communicated range of ~USD 700–850 million, reflecting a few larger turnarounds and some phasing.
Negative Updates
CBAM Political Uncertainty
While CBAM is in force (impacting Q4 pricing), a proposed legislative amendment (Paragraph 27a) to allow temporary suspension has created political uncertainty; outcome requires European Parliament approval and remains unpredictable.
Q1 Demand Uncertainty After Q4 Pre‑Buying
Because of significant pre‑buying in Q4 in Europe, management flagged a slower start to Q1 and dependence on spring field activity — causing uncertainty around timing of purchases and near‑term volumes.
Pressure on NPK Premiums
NPK premiums were pressured (notably in Asia/China/Thailand), causing an estimated negative EBITDA impact of approximately USD 20–30 million in the quarter versus the prior year.
Working Capital Buildup and Free Cash Flow Sensitivity
Seasonal working capital rose materially in recent quarters (partly price‑driven as receivables/inventory values increased), adding near‑term pressure on free cash flow; release depends on seasonal sales and price stability.
Air Products Project Cost and Timing Risk
The U.S. decarbonized ammonia project faces cost inflation and construction market pressures; management provided no update to prior cost ranges and acknowledged material uncertainty around final capex (previously discussed NOK 8–9 billion band by others).
Farmer Affordability and Demand Risk
High fertilizer prices are pressuring farmer economics (example: modeled optimal nitrogen for wheat ~4% lower vs prior year), creating potential downside to demand if grain prices and affordability remain weak.
Exposure to External Supply Shocks — China/Imports
Potential resumption/scale of Chinese urea exports (consultant baselines referenced ~6 million tonnes for future export windows) and import dynamics (EU imported ~2.2 million tonnes urea in Q1 last year) add volatility and downside risk to pricing and margins.
Company Guidance
Management guided that deliveries were about 7% ahead at end‑December versus last year with roughly half the seasonal demand still to be bought (the EU imported ~2.2 Mt of urea in Q1 last year), noting short‑term market drivers such as U.S. Gulf urea at ~$500/t, India’s 1.5 Mt tender and Chinese exports having risen ~5 Mt in 2025 (consultant baselines cited ~6 Mt for 2026). They said 2026 maintenance CapEx is ~USD 200m higher versus 2025 and sits in the upper part of their maintenance range (USD 700–850m/year), with total CapEx run‑rate around USD 1.2bn in the coming years; the Air Products project remains within previously stated ranges (NOK 8–9bn) but no new update was given. Working capital is seasonal (build into spring then release) and Q4 price strength lifted receivables and caused a modest inventory build; NPK premium pressure hit roughly $20–30m in Q4. Yara reported holding about 6 million ETS allowances (covering needs through ~2029), reiterated a 50% cash dividend policy, and confirmed there are no special turnaround plans materially different to prior years.Yara International Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financials show a clear 2025 rebound (revenue up ~3.9% YoY, net income up to ~$1.37B from near break-even in 2024) and stronger cash generation (2025 OCF ~$1.89B; FCF ~$0.96B). Balance sheet leverage is moderate and stable (debt ~$4.0–$4.3B; sizable equity), but earnings and cash flow remain meaningfully cyclical, limiting confidence in through-cycle stability.Income Statement
Revenue rebounded in 2025 to $15.6B (up ~3.9% YoY) after a down 2024, showing demand/price cyclicality typical of agricultural inputs. Profitability improved meaningfully in 2025 with net income jumping to ~$1.37B from near break-even in 2024, indicating strong operating leverage when the cycle turns. The main weakness is volatility: 2022 was exceptionally strong, followed by a sharp earnings reset in 2023–2024, which lowers confidence in through-cycle margin stability.66
Positive
Balance Sheet
Leverage looks manageable and fairly stable, with total debt around $4.0–$4.3B across the period and debt-to-equity around ~0.49–0.61 (where provided). Equity is sizable ($8.7B in 2025), supporting balance-sheet resilience, and assets have remained broadly steady. The key risk is that returns on equity have been highly cyclical—very strong in 2022 but extremely low in 2023–2024—suggesting profitability, not balance-sheet capacity, is the swing factor for credit/coverage comfort.72
Positive
Cash Flow
Cash generation is solid in absolute terms: operating cash flow improved to ~$1.89B in 2025 from ~$1.29B in 2024, and free cash flow rose to ~$0.96B (up ~35.6% YoY). However, cash flow has been uneven (notably weaker free cash flow in 2024 versus 2023), and prior metrics indicate periods where cash conversion versus accounting earnings was not consistently strong. Overall, the company appears capable of producing healthy cash in favorable conditions, but the trajectory is cyclical rather than steadily compounding.69
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 15.62B | 13.81B | 15.43B | 23.90B | 16.62B |
| Gross Profit | 4.42B | 3.68B | 3.34B | 6.55B | 4.48B |
| EBITDA | 3.12B | 1.41B | 1.47B | 4.83B | 2.58B |
| Net Income | 1.37B | 14.00M | 48.00M | 2.78B | 449.00M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 17.14B | 14.99B | 16.03B | 17.98B | 17.27B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 913.00M | 317.00M | 447.00M | 908.00M | 350.00M |
| Total Debt | 4.18B | 4.05B | 4.23B | 4.22B | 4.33B |
| Total Liabilities | 8.39B | 7.99B | 8.46B | 9.38B | 10.15B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.72B | 6.99B | 7.55B | 8.59B | 7.10B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 956.00M | 248.00M | 1.15B | 1.47B | 597.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.89B | 1.29B | 2.29B | 2.39B | 1.41B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -906.00M | -1.08B | -1.20B | -509.00M | -874.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -392.00M | -401.00M | -1.52B | -1.23B | -1.50B |
Yara International Technical Analysis
Positive
17.97
Price Trends
23.25
Positive
21.06
Positive
19.84
Positive
Market Momentum
1.26
Negative
84.47
Negative
99.99
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For YARIY, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 17.97 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.28, below the 50-day MA of 23.25, and below the 200-day MA of 19.84, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 84.47 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 99.99 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for YARIY.
Yara International Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | $19.91B | 8.62 | 29.95% | 2.56% | 12.59% | 31.40% | |
71 Outperform | $14.81B | 15.19 | 16.79% | 1.16% | 7.55% | 34.28% | |
68 Neutral | $9.31B | 14.14 | 9.96% | 3.70% | 3.82% | 239.39% | |
62 Neutral | $3.54B | -6.71 | -27.23% | 4.52% | -3.93% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
59 Neutral | $6.93B | 32.61 | 3.77% | 3.36% | 1.77% | -8.72% | |
49 Neutral | $1.76B | -0.78 | -61.24% | 16.68% | -13.42% | -136.59% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
YARIY
Yara International
29.10
13.48
86.25%
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129.57
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70.57%
FMC
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MOS
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3.57
13.88%
SMG
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60.96
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ICL
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-0.77
-12.50%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.