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Vistra Energy (VST)
NYSE:VST
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Vistra Energy
(NYSE:VST)
77Outperform
Positive Factors
Growth Opportunities
The company has potential growth opportunities through the installation growth, tariff and gas utilization upside, and PPA margins.
Market Position
Vistra is expected to benefit significantly from the revival of the US power market due to its dominant market position and premium market exposure.
Shareholder Return
The price objective of $152 implies a 23% total shareholder return potential, presenting an attractive opportunity.
Negative Factors
Facility Delays
A fire at VST's Moss Landing BESS facility might delay the restart of Phases II & III by 12-18 months.
Outlook Dependency
Vistra's growth outlook is dependent on optimistic assumptions, including significant rises in power prices and PPA margins.
Valuation Concerns
The current valuation of Vistra's stock is considered high after a significant increase, with limited room for further rerating in the near term.
Vistra Energy (VST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$44.84B
Dividend Yield0.66%
Average Volume (3M)8.84M
Price to Earnings (P/E)18.8
Beta (1Y)1.79
Revenue Growth24.68%
EPS Growth103.48%
CountryUS
Employees4,870
SectorUtilities
Sector Strength71
IndustryIndependent Power Producers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)7.07
Shares Outstanding340,157,070
10 Day Avg. Volume7,527,393
30 Day Avg. Volume8,835,964
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.18
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)2.57
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)8.20
P/FCF Ratio5.70
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$173.13Price Target Upside39.61% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering9
Vistra Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVistra Energy Corp (VST) is a leading integrated retail electricity and power generation company in the United States. The company operates in two primary segments: Retail and Generation. Vistra serves residential, commercial, and industrial customers with electricity and related services, leveraging its diversified power generation portfolio, which includes natural gas, nuclear, solar, and battery storage facilities. Headquartered in Irving, Texas, Vistra is committed to providing reliable energy solutions while transitioning towards cleaner energy sources.
How the Company Makes MoneyVistra Energy generates revenue through its retail electricity sales and power generation operations. In the Retail segment, the company earns money by selling electricity and related services to a broad range of customers, including residential, commercial, and industrial users. This segment benefits from brand recognition and competitive pricing strategies. The Generation segment contributes to revenue by producing electricity using its diverse fleet of power plants, which are strategically located to serve key markets across the United States. Vistra's power plants use a mix of energy sources, including natural gas, nuclear, and renewables, allowing the company to optimize production costs and manage market fluctuations. Additionally, Vistra may engage in bilateral contracts and participate in wholesale electricity markets to maximize earnings. The company's strategic initiatives, such as investments in renewable energy projects and energy storage solutions, also play a significant role in its financial performance and long-term growth prospects.
Vistra Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vistra Energy demonstrates strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, improved profitability margins, and reduced leverage. The company shows robust cash flow growth, although there are areas for improvement in operational efficiency and cash flow conversion.Income Statement
Vistra Energy has shown a strong income statement performance with a significant revenue growth of 16.5% from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin improved markedly, indicating better cost management. The net profit margin is robust at 14.3% for 2024. However, the negative EBITDA margin in 2024 suggests some operational inefficiencies or extraordinary items affecting earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet reflects a solid equity position with an equity ratio of 14.8% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio significantly improved to 0.16 from 2023, indicating reduced leverage and enhanced financial stability. However, the return on equity at 44.2% is strong, suggesting efficient use of equity to generate profits. The improvement in equity and reduced debt levels are positive indicators for financial health.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Vistra Energy's cash flow statement indicates a substantial operating cash flow of $4.56 billion in 2024, with a healthy free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.85. The free cash flow growth of 20.8% from 2023 is a positive sign. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio declined compared to previous years, suggesting a need for improved cash generation efficiency relative to net income.70
Positive
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 11.02B | 17.22B | 14.78B | 13.73B | 12.08B | 11.44B | Gross Profit |
| 1.86B | 17.22B | 5.52B | 1.68B | 1.35B | 4.65B | EBIT |
| -1.06B | 4.08B | 2.66B | -1.12B | -1.27B | 1.52B | EBITDA |
| 1.49B | -931.00M | 4.57B | 1.29B | 782.00M | 3.16B | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -908.00M | 2.47B | 1.49B | -1.21B | -1.26B | 636.00M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 1.19B | 1.19B | 3.48B | 455.00M | 1.32B | 406.00M | Total Assets |
| 37.77B | 37.77B | 32.97B | 32.79B | 29.68B | 25.21B | Total Debt |
| 17.36B | 880.00M | 14.68B | 13.34B | 11.01B | 9.88B | Net Debt |
| 16.18B | -308.00M | 11.20B | 12.88B | 9.68B | 9.48B | Total Liabilities |
| 32.19B | 32.19B | 27.64B | 27.87B | 21.39B | 16.85B | Stockholders Equity |
| 5.57B | 5.58B | 5.31B | 4.90B | 8.29B | 8.37B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| -972.00M | 4.56B | 3.78B | -816.00M | -1.24B | 2.08B | Operating Cash Flow |
| 128.00M | 4.56B | 5.45B | 485.00M | -206.00M | 3.34B | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.19B | -5.28B | -2.15B | -1.24B | -1.15B | -1.57B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 2.48B | -1.60B | -294.00M | -80.00M | 2.27B | -1.80B |
Vistra Energy Technical Analysis
Negative
124.01
Price Trends
149.35
Negative
147.69
Negative
120.80
Positive
Market Momentum
-4.86
Negative
42.69
Neutral
60.11
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VST, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 124.01 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.40, below the 50-day MA of 149.35, and above the 200-day MA of 120.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.86 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 42.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.11 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VST.
Vistra Energy Risk Analysis
Vistra Energy disclosed 46 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Vistra Energy reported the most risks in the “Production” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Vistra Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | $91.00B | 20.42 | 9.10% | 3.58% | 4.46% | 54.09% | |
77 Outperform | $97.68B | 21.97 | 13.61% | 3.28% | 5.83% | 10.23% | |
77 Outperform | $44.84B | 18.84 | 48.89% | 0.66% | 24.68% | 103.48% | |
73 Outperform | $55.48B | 18.36 | 11.37% | 3.53% | 2.76% | 31.53% | |
72 Outperform | $44.44B | 17.43 | 9.34% | 3.60% | 5.98% | 4.99% | |
71 Outperform | $141.09B | 20.33 | 14.24% | 3.08% | 26.91% | -6.43% | |
65 Neutral | $11.97B | 15.58 | 6.65% | 4.33% | 5.53% | -5.08% |
* Utilities Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VST
Vistra Energy
124.01
54.94
79.54%
AEP
American Electric Power
103.90
20.99
25.32%
DUK
Duke Energy
117.11
24.00
25.78%
EXC
Exelon
44.02
7.90
21.87%
NEE
NextEra Energy
69.73
7.57
12.18%
SO
Southern Co
89.06
19.72
28.44%
Vistra Energy Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -16.17% | Next Earnings Date: May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial and operational performance in 2024, with significant achievements in acquisitions, retail growth, and renewable capacity expansion. Despite challenges such as the Moss Landing fire and regulatory uncertainties affecting data center deals and future market designs, Vistra Corp. maintains a positive outlook with reaffirmed guidance and considerable potential for growth.Highlights
Strong Financial Performance
Vistra Corp. reported full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of their original guidance range, even before considering the $545 million benefit from the nuclear production tax credit recognized in the fourth quarter.
Significant Acquisition and Market Expansion
Completed a unique acquisition adding three new nuclear sites, one million retail customers, and nearly two thousand team members. This includes a twenty-year license renewal for the Comanche Peak nuclear power plant and two large power purchase agreements for a renewable pipeline.
Retail Business Growth
The retail business grew and reached performance levels not achieved in the past two decades, attributed to Vistra Corp.'s 'one team' mindset.
Capacity Additions and Infrastructure Development
Positioned for significant capacity additions with upgrades totaling approximately 500 megawatts in the Texas market and plans to convert the Toledo Creek coal plant to a gas fuel plant by 2027.
Positive Long-term Outlook
Reaffirmed guidance of $5.5 billion to $6.1 billion in adjusted free cash flow before growth and projected significant potential for further growth in adjusted EBITDA beyond the estimated $6 billion in 2026.
Zero-carbon Growth Initiatives
Completed and brought online two solar and energy storage facilities and started construction on projects in Texas and Illinois, adding over 600 megawatts of renewable capacity.
Shareholder Return and Deleveraging
Returned approximately $5.9 billion to investors through share repurchases and dividends since 2021, with plans to return at least $2 billion in 2025 and 2026. Net debt at the end of 2024 was below three times adjusted EBITDA.
Lowlights
Moss Landing Fire Incident
A fire at the 300-megawatt phase one battery storage facility in Moss Landing, California. Although no injuries occurred, the incident led to the facility being offline and uncertainty regarding insurance recoveries of up to $500 million.
Regulatory and Market Design Uncertainties
Ongoing regulatory uncertainties in PJM and ERCOT related to market reforms and capacity auction parameters, affecting clarity on future financial performance.
Challenges with Data Center Deals
Complexity and regulatory clarity issues are delaying potential deals with data centers, particularly concerning colocation arrangements and long-term contracts.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter 2024 earnings call, Vistra Corp. provided robust guidance, highlighting a strong full-year adjusted EBITDA of $5.656 billion, exceeding the top end of their original guidance range. The company reaffirmed its guidance for adjusted free cash flow before growth, projected to be between $3 billion and $3.6 billion for the upcoming year. Additionally, Vistra Corp. maintained its outlook for a 2026 adjusted EBITDA midpoint opportunity of over $6 billion. The discussion also covered significant capacity additions, with plans to augment existing gas assets in Texas, totaling approximately 500 megawatts, and the conversion of the Toledo Creek coal plant to a gas-fueled plant by 2027. The company indicated its intention to return at least $2 billion through share repurchases in 2025 and 2026, emphasizing its disciplined capital allocation strategy. Challenges and opportunities related to market design, load growth, and regulatory clarity in PJM and ERCOT were also addressed, underscoring Vistra Corp.'s strategic positioning in the evolving energy landscape.Vistra Energy Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingM&A Transactions
Vistra Energy Launches Senior Notes for Strategic Acquisition
Positive
Nov 19, 2024
Vistra Corp., through its subsidiary, is set to launch a private offering of senior secured notes, aiming to finance its strategic acquisition of Energy Harbor Corp. The merger, a significant move in the energy sector, combines nuclear and retail businesses under the newly formed Vistra Vision. This strategic acquisition is expected to enhance Vistra’s operational scale and market reach, backed by a robust financial strategy involving senior secured and unsecured notes, and various facilities. Investors should keep an eye on the potential synergies and financial impacts of these transactions.
Stock BuybackRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Vistra Energy Announces Annual Tax Payment Details
Neutral
Nov 15, 2024
Vistra Corp. announced an upcoming annual tax payment of $392,481 to holders of TRA Rights, with $338,897 as a return of basis and $53,584 as interest income, scheduled for December 2, 2024. The company has nearly completed its repurchase of these rights, buying back about 98% by September 2024. Under federal tax law, withholding may apply on the interest income if holders fail to provide a taxpayer identification number. Holders can contact Equiniti Trust Company for account inquiries.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.