Duke Energy (DUK) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $103.39B
• Dividend Yield: 3.61%
• Average Volume (3M): 4.85M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.3
• Beta (1Y): -0.12
• Revenue Growth: 4.80%
• EPS Growth: 14.44%
• Country: US
• Employees: 26,413
• Sector: Utilities
• Sector Strength: 65
• Industry: Regulated Electric
• EPS (TTM): 1.50
• Shares Outstanding: 777,670,840
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 5,218,987
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 4,851,579
• PEG Ratio: 1.74
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.76
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.83
• P/FCF Ratio: -54.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.86
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.94
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 11.00
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 12.27
• 1Y Price Target: $136.86
• Price Target Upside: 2.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.7
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $32.99B

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: $143.00 ▲(7.56% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 03/11/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 03/11/26

The score is driven primarily by improving earnings and operating cash generation, supported by a positive growth outlook from the earnings call and an above-DMA technical uptrend. Offsetting factors are the leverage-heavy balance sheet, historically inconsistent free cash flow, and capital-plan financing/dilution risks; valuation and dividend yield are supportive but not exceptionally cheap.

Positive Factors

Regulated revenue and margins

Duke's regulated retail and transmission businesses have produced steady revenue growth (to $32.2B in 2025) and improved net margin (~15.4%), reflecting durable rate-based earnings and cost recovery mechanisms that support predictable cash flow and earnings stability over multi-year horizons.

Visible long-term growth via $103B capex

The $103 billion five-year capital plan explicitly targets rate-base growth and is paired with signed data-center ESAs (4.5 GW) and a ~9 GW late-stage pipeline, creating a durable earnings runway: capex added to rate base and contracted large loads both structurally increase regulated revenue and authorized returns.

Improving cash generation and financing access

Operating cash flow strengthened materially to about $12.33B in 2025 and FFO/debt improved to mid‑teens, while refinancing actions and secured bond issuance show ongoing market access. These factors boost long-term ability to fund capex, service debt and pursue regulated investments reliably.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Total debt has risen substantially (to $90.9B in 2025) and debt has grown faster than equity, lifting debt-to-equity to ~1.75. Higher leverage constrains financial flexibility, raises refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, and limits room for adverse regulatory or project delays over coming years.

Planned equity issuance / dilution risk

Management plans ~$10B of equity issuance to fund the capital plan (about 35% equity funding), implying dilution and dependence on equity markets. Large planned issuance over multiple years increases execution risk around timing and financing costs, and can affect per-share metrics if capital is raised at inopportune times.

Execution and concentration risk

The ambitious buildout (14 GW additions and large battery deployments) creates supply‑chain and execution risks. Simultaneously, heavy reliance on hyperscale data-center load (a growing share of economic development) raises concentration and timing sensitivity: delays or policy changes could push the expected earnings inflection later.

Duke Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest; and uses coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable generation, and nuclear fuel to generate electricity. It also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. This segment serves approximately 8.2 million customers in 6 states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States covering a service territory of approximately 91,000 square miles; and owns approximately 50,259 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and owns, operates, and invests in pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities. It has approximately 1.6 million customers, including 1.1 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, as well as 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, owns, develops, builds, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects, including nonregulated renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, electric cooperatives, municipalities, and corporate customers. It has 23 wind, 178 solar, and 2 battery storage facilities, as well as 71 fuel cell locations with a capacity of 3,554 MW across 22 states. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2005. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

How the Company Makes Money

Duke Energy primarily makes money through regulated utility operations. Most revenue comes from selling electricity to end-use customers within state-regulated service territories via retail rates set (or periodically reset) through public utility commission proceedings. Under cost-of-service regulation, Duke generally earns an allowed return on approved invested capital (rate base) and recovers prudently incurred operating costs (e.g., fuel, purchased power, operations and maintenance, and certain storm or compliance costs) through base rates and riders/adjustment mechanisms, depending on jurisdiction. A significant portion of earnings is tied to long-lived infrastructure investment (generation, transmission, distribution, substations, grid modernization), because adding approved assets to rate base increases the amount on which the company can earn its authorized return. Duke also generates revenue from electric transmission and wholesale-related activities where applicable. Transmission revenue is typically governed by federally regulated tariffs (e.g., under FERC oversight) and is earned by providing transmission service and recovering transmission-related investment and operating costs through tariff rates. In addition, Duke may earn revenue from wholesale power sales or purchased power arrangements when selling excess generation output or executing market transactions; the extent and profitability of these activities are influenced by market prices, contractual terms, and regulatory treatment in each region. On the natural gas side, Duke earns regulated revenue by distributing natural gas to customers through local distribution companies. Similar to electric utilities, gas distribution earnings are generally based on regulated rates designed to recover operating costs and provide an allowed return on the regulated asset base (pipelines, meters, and related infrastructure). Many jurisdictions use gas cost-recovery mechanisms that pass commodity gas costs through to customers with limited margin impact, while the utility earns a regulated margin on delivery service and infrastructure investment. Overall, Duke’s earnings are heavily influenced by regulatory decisions (authorized returns, approved capital spending, rate design, and recovery mechanisms), customer demand and weather patterns (which affect sales volumes), fuel and purchased-power costs (often passed through but still subject to prudence reviews), and the company’s ability to execute capital projects on time and within amounts deemed recoverable by regulators.

Duke Energy Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement trends are solid for a regulated utility (steady revenue growth to $32.2B and improved net margin to ~15.4% in 2025), but the balance sheet is increasingly leveraged (debt up to $90.9B; debt-to-equity ~1.75) and free cash flow has been historically volatile/often negative despite a sharp 2025 improvement, reducing overall quality and flexibility.

Income Statement

Revenue has grown steadily over the last several years, reaching $32.2B in 2025 (annual) versus $23.4B in 2020, with generally stable profitability. Net margin improved versus the weaker 2020–2022 period, rising to ~15.4% in 2025 (annual) from ~8.9% in 2022, and net income increased to $5.0B. EBITDA margin remains solid and fairly consistent (~48% in 2025), supporting earnings stability typical of a regulated utility. A key weakness is that the provided 2025 EBIT margin is shown as 0.0 (likely a data issue), which reduces confidence in operating-profit trend analysis for the most recent year.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a leverage-heavy capital structure that has been rising over time: total debt increased to $90.9B in 2025 (annual) from $64.1B in 2020, with debt-to-equity moving up to ~1.75 from ~1.34. Equity has grown modestly (to $51.8B), but debt growth has outpaced it, keeping financial flexibility more constrained. Return on equity has improved versus 2020–2022 (up to ~9.6% in 2025 from ~2.9% in 2020), which is a positive, but the higher leverage is the main balance-sheet risk.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has strengthened materially, reaching ~$12.33B in 2025 (annual) versus ~$5.93B in 2022, indicating improving cash generation. However, free cash flow has been volatile and often negative (2020–2023), with a near-breakeven 2024 (~$0.05B) followed by a sharp jump to $12.33B in 2025 (annual). The swing suggests cash flow is sensitive to timing and/or investment cycles. Cash generation versus accounting earnings is mixed: free cash flow relative to net income was negative in multiple years, near zero in 2024, then strong in 2025, making consistency the primary weakness.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	32.24B	30.36B	29.06B	28.77B	24.62B
Gross Profit	10.17B	15.20B	13.76B	12.98B	11.96B
EBITDA	15.67B	15.00B	13.87B	12.36B	11.86B
Net Income	4.97B	4.51B	4.30B	2.55B	3.91B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	195.74B	186.34B	176.89B	178.09B	169.59B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	245.00M	314.00M	253.00M	409.00M	341.00M
Total Debt	90.87B	85.23B	80.46B	74.91B	68.26B
Total Liabilities	142.72B	135.09B	126.71B	126.23B	118.45B
Stockholders Equity	51.84B	50.13B	49.11B	49.32B	49.30B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-1.67B	48.00M	-2.73B	-5.44B	-1.43B
Operating Cash Flow	12.35B	12.33B	9.88B	5.93B	8.29B
Investing Cash Flow	-14.36B	-13.12B	-12.47B	-11.97B	-10.94B
Financing Cash Flow	1.95B	859.00M	2.35B	6.13B	2.61B

Duke Energy Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 132.95
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For DUK, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 132.95 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 130.24, above the 50-day MA of 123.76, and above the 200-day MA of 120.01, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.52 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 67.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.89 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for DUK.

Duke Energy Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AEP	80 Outperform	$72.27B	16.71	12.06%	3.25%	7.66%	37.42%
NGG	74 Outperform	$90.34B	21.62	7.66%	4.03%	-7.06%	38.21%
DUK	71 Outperform	$103.39B	18.33	9.69%	3.61%	4.80%	14.44%
SO	68 Neutral	$110.00B	22.16	12.50%	3.40%	9.40%	-6.05%
Sector *	66 Neutral	$17.65B	18.10	5.60%	3.62%	6.62%	11.55%
EXC	65 Neutral	$51.19B	15.92	9.87%	3.68%	6.07%	15.20%
D	63 Neutral	$55.39B	16.69	10.77%	4.59%	12.72%	4.90%

Duke Energy Corporate Events

Duke Energy Upsizes Convertible Notes Offering to Refinance Debt

On March 10, 2026, Duke Energy priced an upsized private offering of $1.3 billion of 3.000% convertible senior notes due 2029, increased from a previously planned $1 billion, and granted initial purchasers an option for an additional $200 million. The notes, issued under Rule 144A, carry a fixed 3.000% coupon, mature on March 15, 2029, and are initially convertible at a 22.5% premium to the March 9, 2026 NYSE share price, with no issuer redemption prior to maturity.

Duke Energy expects net proceeds of about $1.29 billion, or $1.48 billion if the option is fully exercised, and intends to use them primarily to repay at maturity $1.725 billion of 4.125% convertible notes due April 15, 2026, and for general corporate purposes. The transaction effectively refinances higher‑coupon convertible debt, potentially lowering interest costs and smoothing the company’s capital structure, while associated arbitrage unwinds by existing noteholders could influence short‑term trading in Duke Energy’s common stock during the observation period.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $148.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Duke Energy Announces $1 Billion Convertible Notes Offering

On March 9, 2026, Duke Energy announced a proposed private offering of $1 billion in convertible senior notes due 2029, with an option for initial purchasers to buy an additional $150 million, targeting qualified institutional buyers under Rule 144A. The notes will be unsecured, unsubordinated obligations, pay semiannual interest, and can be converted at the holders’ option under certain conditions, with Duke Energy able to settle conversions in cash, stock or a combination.

The company plans to use the net proceeds primarily to refinance $1.725 billion of its 4.125% Convertible Senior Notes maturing April 15, 2026, and for general corporate purposes, effectively extending the maturity profile of its convertible debt. Duke Energy also highlighted that many holders of the existing notes use convertible arbitrage strategies and may close short positions in its stock during the March 9, 2026 observation period, trading activity that could influence the share price and the effective conversion price of the new notes.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $148.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Duke Energy Indiana Completes $500 Million Bond Issuance

On March 6, 2026, Duke Energy Indiana completed a $500 million issuance and sale of First Mortgage Bonds, Series DDDD, carrying a 4.95% coupon and maturing March 15, 2036, under an underwriting agreement signed March 4, 2026. The bonds, issued at a discount under the company’s long-standing mortgage indenture with Deutsche Bank National Trust Company as trustee, reinforce Duke Energy Indiana’s access to long-term capital markets to support its regulated utility operations and were registered on Form S-3 with related legal opinions filed to validate the securities for investors.

The transaction, backed by the utility’s first mortgage lien, may lower the company’s overall financing costs compared with shorter-term funding and helps lock in fixed-rate debt in the current interest-rate environment. For bondholders and other stakeholders, the secured nature of the issue and the established indenture framework provide additional structural protections, while the sizable tranche underscores continuing institutional demand for investment-grade regulated utility debt.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Hold with a $139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Duke Energy Launches $6 Billion At-The-Market Equity Program

On March 6, 2026, Duke Energy Corporation established a new at-the-market equity distribution program, entering into an Equity Distribution Agreement with a syndicate of banks and broker-dealers that will act as sales agents to sell up to $6 billion of its common stock over time through various market transactions, including block trades and NYSE sales. The company also arranged the ability to execute both initially priced and collared forward sale agreements with designated forward purchasers, giving it flexible tools to raise equity capital and manage issuance timing, although it will only receive proceeds upon settlement of these forward transactions, which may affect future capital structure and dilution for shareholders depending on how and when these instruments are settled.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Hold with a $139.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.

Duke Energy Announces Leadership Transition Plans

On December 12, 2025, Duke Energy announced the retirement of Cynthia S. Lee, its Senior Vice President, Chief Accounting Officer, and Controller, effective December 31, 2026. Abigail L. Motsinger has been appointed to succeed her, effective March 1, 2026. Motsinger, who has been with Duke Energy since 2010, will transition from her current role as Vice President, Investor Relations. Her new compensation package includes a base salary and incentive opportunities, reflecting her elevated responsibilities.

The most recent analyst rating on (DUK) stock is a Buy with a $126.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Duke Energy stock, see the DUK Stock Forecast page.