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Verra Mobility
(NASDAQ:VRRM)
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Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
$6.00
▲(48.15% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/06/26
Overall score reflects solid underlying business economics and cash generation but tempered by recent profitability compression and leverage risk. Earnings call updates added caution due to lowered guidance and weaker renewal economics pressuring segment margins, while valuation is a clear support with a very low P/E. Technically, the stock shows short-term improvement but remains in a longer-term downtrend.
Positive Factors
Government Solutions recurring service growth
Sustained service revenue growth in Government Solutions reflects multi-year program rollouts and installations that create recurring, contractually-backed revenue. Large municipal wins and steady installation pacing provide durable top-line visibility and scale benefits that support long-term program economics and renewal potential.
Negative Factors
Government Solutions margin compression
Material margin compression in the Government segment reduces cash generation and operating leverage. Because government programs drive multi-year service revenue, worse renewal economics and subcontractor costs can persist across contract cycles, pressuring EBITDA and requiring sustained cost actions to restore prior profitability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Government Solutions recurring service growth
Sustained service revenue growth in Government Solutions reflects multi-year program rollouts and installations that create recurring, contractually-backed revenue. Large municipal wins and steady installation pacing provide durable top-line visibility and scale benefits that support long-term program economics and renewal potential.
Read all positive factors
Verra Mobility (VRRM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$803.59M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.06M
Price to Earnings (P/E)6.4
Beta (1Y)0.30
Revenue Growth9.71%
EPS Growth293.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,901
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.27
Shares Outstanding151,906,650
10 Day Avg. Volume3,747,706
30 Day Avg. Volume5,057,852
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)12.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.64
P/FCF Ratio26.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.40Price Target Upside58.02% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.23
Revenue Forecast (FY)$988.75M
Verra Mobility Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Verra Mobility Corporation is a company dedicated to delivering innovative smart mobility technology solutions and associated services across the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. Its operations are structured across three distinct seg...
How the Company Makes Money
Verra Mobility generates revenue primarily by operating and supporting technology-enabled services that process road safety enforcement and toll-related transactions for customers.
1) Government Solutions (road safety / automated traffic enforcem...
Verra Mobility Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 05, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call conveyed a mixed but constructive tone: the company demonstrated clear operational momentum with strong adjusted EBITDA, cash generation, sizable customer renewals (Avis and Hertz), a major Los Angeles award, and meaningful ARR bookings, while also executing rapid cost actions and accelerating AI and transformation initiatives. Offsetting these positives were a material non-cash impairment (T2), a GAAP loss, and materially less favorable economics in the Avis and Hertz renewals that caused margin compression in Government Solutions and a downward update to full-year guidance. Management emphasized stabilization, disciplined capital allocation, and longer-term value-creation actions.Positive Updates
Government Solutions Revenue Growth
Government solutions service revenue increased 17% year-over-year in Q2; within New York City service revenue grew 36% YoY and service revenue outside NYC grew 8% YoY, driven by accelerated NYC camera installations.
Negative Updates
Significant Non-Cash Impairment and GAAP Loss
GAAP net loss of $48 million in Q2, driven by a $104 million non-cash goodwill and intangible asset impairment charge related to T2 Systems; GAAP diluted EPS loss of $0.32 vs GAAP income of $0.24 per share in prior-year period.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Government Solutions Revenue Growth
Government solutions service revenue increased 17% year-over-year in Q2; within New York City service revenue grew 36% YoY and service revenue outside NYC grew 8% YoY, driven by accelerated NYC camera installations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management updated 2026 guidance calling for total revenue of $945–965M, adjusted EBITDA of $360–370M (≈38% margin), adjusted EPS of $1.11–1.17, and free cash flow of $105–115M (with higher CapEx for the Los Angeles Metro and school-bus stop‑arm programs); they expect a $30M use of working capital tied to RAC renewals and NYC installation timing, plan roughly $20M of annualized cost takeouts with full run‑rate savings by 2027, and noted Q2 balance‑sheet metrics of ~ $1.0B net debt and 2.4x net leverage with the revolver undrawn and $66M remaining on a $250M repurchase authorization. Segment guidance: Government Solutions expected to deliver high‑end mid‑single‑digit total revenue growth (low‑double‑digit service growth ex‑NYC, high‑single‑digit NYC growth), product revenue roughly flat, and GS margins to compress ~450–500 bps vs. 2025 to land in the low‑20s for the year (Q3 similar to Q1, ramping to mid‑20s in Q4); Commercial Services revenue expected to be up high‑single‑digits with CS margins in the low‑60% range and TSA volumes ~flat to 2025 (a 1–1.5% reduction versus prior TSA assumptions); Parking Solutions revenue is expected up low‑to‑mid single digits with slightly accretive margins.Verra Mobility Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
54
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.01B | 979.08M | 879.21M | 817.31M | 741.60M | 550.59M |
| Gross Profit | 967.39M | 948.76M | 860.22M | 773.85M | 694.34M | 515.44M |
| EBITDA | 275.60M | 375.92M | 262.08M | 287.52M | 336.65M | 229.64M |
| Net Income | 44.28M | 136.63M | 31.45M | 57.02M | 92.47M | 41.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.62B | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.79B | 1.76B | 1.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.80M | 65.27M | 77.56M | 138.63M | 105.20M | 101.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.09B | 38.23M | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.25B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.39B | 1.35B | 1.35B | 1.37B | 1.53B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 223.62M | 292.96M | 265.13M | 421.47M | 231.07M | 259.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 105.79M | 136.71M | 152.79M | 148.62M | 170.15M | 168.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 255.01M | 255.80M | 223.64M | 206.10M | 218.34M | 193.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -148.69M | -118.79M | -69.72M | -58.29M | -48.59M | -475.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -225.85M | -150.97M | -211.43M | -117.79M | -164.93M | 268.72M |
Verra Mobility Technical Analysis
Negative
4.05
Price Trends
4.50
Positive
9.35
Negative
15.09
Negative
Market Momentum
0.07
Negative
49.51
Neutral
58.92
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VRRM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.05 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.62, below the 50-day MA of 4.50, and below the 200-day MA of 15.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VRRM.
Verra Mobility Risk Analysis
Verra Mobility disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Verra Mobility reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Verra Mobility Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | $4.29B | 57.80 | 14.80% | ― | 33.01% | 44.89% | |
72 Outperform | $4.95B | 13.10 | 27.22% | 1.24% | -2.90% | 24.61% | |
65 Neutral | $6.51B | 15.33 | 10.23% | 1.10% | 11.54% | 61.84% | |
62 Neutral | $803.59M | 6.37 | 14.86% | ― | 9.71% | 293.14% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | $1.50B | -1.15 | -41.80% | 6.47% | 3.89% | -681.89% |
* Technology Sector Average
VRRM
Verra Mobility
4.90
-18.79
-79.32%
SAIC
Science Applications
126.54
12.30
10.77%
CNXC
Concentrix
25.72
-18.11
-41.32%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
38.57
4.40
12.88%
INGM
Ingram Micro Holding Corporation
28.40
9.87
53.27%
Verra Mobility Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Posts Strong Q2 Results Amid Leadership Shift
Negative
Aug 5, 2026
Verra Mobility reported a strong second quarter for the period ended June 30, 2026, with total revenue rising 12% year on year to $263.6 million, driven by double‑digit service revenue growth in Government Solutions and steady gains in Comme...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility, Avis Renew Tolling Partnership Under New Terms
Negative
Jul 29, 2026
On July 28, 2026, Verra Mobility announced it had reached agreement with Avis Budget Group on key commercial terms for a new seven-year tolling and violations services contract, with operational details still being finalized. The redefined relatio...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Verra Mobility Announces Transformation, Names Chief Customer Officer
Positive
Jun 17, 2026
On June 13 and June 16, 2026, Verra Mobility’s board compensation committee approved equity and cash retention awards totaling $1 million for Stacey Moser, who has been named Chief Customer Officer overseeing sales, account management and ma...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Verra Mobility Announces Leadership Change in Government Solutions
Neutral
Jun 15, 2026
Verra Mobility Corporation announced that Jonathan Baldwin, its Executive Vice President for Government Solutions, will leave the company on July 9, 2026, after remaining in his role until that date. The company said Baldwin will receive severance...
Business Operations and Strategy
Verra Mobility Forms Transformation Committee for Long-Term Growth
Positive
Jun 8, 2026
On June 5, 2026, Verra Mobility’s board established a Transformation Committee to oversee a broad transformation initiative aimed at positioning the business for long-term growth. The committee will work closely with management on business a...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Verra Mobility Names Interim CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Neutral
Jun 1, 2026
On June 1, 2026, Verra Mobility announced a leadership transition, appointing Jonathan (Jon) Keyser as interim president and CEO effective May 31, 2026, as David Roberts stepped down from the CEO role and resigned from the board after a 12-year te...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Updates 2026 Outlook After Major Contract Loss
Negative
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Verra Mobility announced that Avis Budget Group had issued a notice terminating its contract with the company, effective September 2026, ending a relationship with a Commercial Services client that accounted for more than 10% of V...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Verra Mobility Shareholders Back Directors and Compensation Policies
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders held on May 19, 2026, Verra Mobility shareholders elected three Class II directors, Patrick J. Byrne, David M. Roberts and John H. Rexford, to serve terms running until the 2029 annual meeting or until su...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Reports Flat Q1 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Neutral
May 6, 2026
Verra Mobility reported first quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, posting essentially flat revenue at $223.6 million, net income of $26.7 million, and net cash from operations of $40.8 million, while reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance. The quart...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.