Verra Mobility Corporation (VRRM)
NASDAQ:VRRM
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Verra Mobility
(NASDAQ:VRRM)
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Rating:64Neutral
Price Target:
$15.50
▲(5.87% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:02/26/26
The score is primarily supported by strong underlying financial performance (growth, high margins, and improved balance-sheet flexibility). It is held back by weak technicals (price below major moving averages, negative MACD) and earnings-call signals of near-term margin pressure in 2026, partly offset by continued growth guidance and large contract momentum.
Positive Factors
Durable revenue growth
Consistent multi-year top-line expansion demonstrates durable demand for Verra's government and commercial services, reflecting sticky, contract-driven revenue. Multi-year contracts and recurring transaction economics support predictable cash flows and revenue visibility over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Negative Factors
NYC/MWBE margin headwind
New York City contract pricing and mandatory MWBE subcontracting impose recurring incremental costs (~$22–24M annually), pressuring Government Solutions margins. This structural cost burden will lower consolidated profitability until offset by operational savings or price adjustments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Durable revenue growth
Consistent multi-year top-line expansion demonstrates durable demand for Verra's government and commercial services, reflecting sticky, contract-driven revenue. Multi-year contracts and recurring transaction economics support predictable cash flows and revenue visibility over the next 2–6 months and beyond.
Read all positive factors
Verra Mobility (VRRM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$2.22B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.68M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.1
Beta (1Y)0.41
Revenue Growth8.52%
EPS Growth-45.92%
CountryUS
Employees1,754
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.30
Shares Outstanding151,361,950
10 Day Avg. Volume1,682,517
30 Day Avg. Volume1,678,020
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)12.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.64
P/FCF Ratio26.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.29
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit2.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda5.97
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$22.75Price Target Upside55.40% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.35
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.03B
Verra Mobility Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Verra Mobility Corporation provides smart mobility technology solutions and services in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Commercial Services; Government Solutions; and Parking Solutions. The Gov...
How the Company Makes Money
Verra Mobility makes money by charging customers for technology-enabled services and long-term managed programs across its two primary segments:
1) Government Solutions (automated traffic enforcement)
- Program/managed services fees: For municipa...
Verra Mobility Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlights strong top-line growth (Q4 revenue +16%, Government Solutions +25%), meaningful bookings and a near-$1B NYC contract, healthy trailing profitability (42% adjusted EBITDA margin TTM) and continued shareholder returns. However, near-term margin pressure is expected in 2026 due to New York City pricing changes and MWBE requirements, Government Solutions margin compression in Q4, timing-driven weak Q1 cadence and a small Q4 free cash flow impact from delayed collections. Management expects margin expansion beginning in late 2026 and recurring savings from MOSAIC starting in 2027, supporting a path to improved profitability over time.Positive Updates
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 total revenue increased 16% year-over-year and service revenue grew 14% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue ~ $979M (TTM), with management guiding 2026 revenue of $1.02B–$1.03B (~5% growth at midpoint).
Negative Updates
Near-Term Margin Pressure and 2026 EBITDA Guidance
Company expects 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~40%, a ~250 basis point decline versus 2025, driven by portfolio mix (more Government Solutions) and New York City contract pricing and MWBE subcontractor requirements (estimated 250–300 bps impact).
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Quarterly and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 total revenue increased 16% year-over-year and service revenue grew 14% year-over-year; full-year 2025 revenue ~ $979M (TTM), with management guiding 2026 revenue of $1.02B–$1.03B (~5% growth at midpoint).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 total revenue of $1.02–$1.03 billion (~5% growth), adjusted EBITDA of $405–$415 million (≈40% margin, ~250 bps decline YoY), adjusted EPS of $1.32–$1.38, and free cash flow of $150–$160 million (high‑30% conversion of adjusted EBITDA) with CapEx about $125 million. They expect Q1 revenue roughly flat YoY with consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin in the mid‑30s, ramping to ~40% for the year (Q2 high single‑digits revenue growth, Q3/Q4 mid‑single‑digits; margins ~40%+ in Q3–Q4). By segment: Government Solutions service revenue up high‑single‑digits with total GS revenue mid‑single‑digits, GS margins down ~450–500 bps in 2026 due to New York City pricing and MWBE requirements (annual MWBE cost ~$22–$24M) but ramping to the mid‑20s by Q4; MOSAIC is expected to be cost‑neutral in 2026 and to deliver $10–$20M of annual OPEX savings starting in 2027. Commercial Services: mid‑single‑digit revenue growth, TSA volumes ~+100 bps, FMC mid‑single‑digit full year (down high‑single‑digits H1, up low‑double‑digits H2) with CS margins up ~25–50 bps; Parking Solutions: mid‑single‑digit revenue growth (SaaS low‑single‑digit, product/professional services high‑single‑digit) and slightly accretive margins. Balance sheet/cash: gross debt ≈$1.0B (≈$690M floating), net debt $972M, net leverage 2.3x, $150M undrawn revolver; Q4 share repurchases ≈6M shares for $133M (board authorization up to $250M) and $650M returned to shareholders over five years. Recent TTM metrics: ~$979M revenue, $416M adjusted EBITDA (42% margin) and $137M FCF (33% conversion).Verra Mobility Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 979.08M | 879.21M | 817.31M | 741.60M | 550.59M |
| Gross Profit | 948.76M | 860.22M | 773.85M | 694.34M | 515.44M |
| EBITDA | 375.92M | 262.08M | 287.52M | 336.65M | 229.64M |
| Net Income | 136.63M | 31.45M | 57.02M | 92.47M | 41.45M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.79B | 1.76B | 1.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 65.27M | 77.56M | 138.63M | 105.20M | 101.28M |
| Total Debt | 38.23M | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.25B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.35B | 1.35B | 1.37B | 1.53B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 292.96M | 265.13M | 421.47M | 231.07M | 259.96M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 136.71M | 152.79M | 148.62M | 170.15M | 168.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 255.80M | 223.64M | 206.10M | 218.34M | 193.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -118.79M | -69.72M | -58.29M | -48.59M | -475.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -150.97M | -211.43M | -117.79M | -164.93M | 268.72M |
Verra Mobility Technical Analysis
Negative
14.64
Price Trends
18.38
Negative
20.34
Negative
22.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.12
Positive
24.33
Positive
10.69
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VRRM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.64 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.87, below the 50-day MA of 18.38, and below the 200-day MA of 22.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 24.33 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VRRM.
Verra Mobility Risk Analysis
Verra Mobility disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Verra Mobility reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Verra Mobility Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | $3.15B | 61.03 | 12.67% | ― | 44.34% | 45.96% | |
67 Neutral | $5.16B | 15.81 | 8.07% | 1.39% | 7.06% | -8.83% | |
64 Neutral | $2.22B | 26.08 | 40.55% | ― | 8.52% | -45.92% | |
64 Neutral | $4.21B | 13.47 | 23.73% | 1.69% | -0.38% | 31.38% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
51 Neutral | $2.03B | -1.80 | -33.22% | 3.38% | 3.40% | 53.13% |
* Technology Sector Average
VRRM
Verra Mobility
14.64
-6.43
-30.52%
SAIC
Science Applications
96.87
-10.14
-9.48%
CNXC
Concentrix
33.04
-10.85
-24.72%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
25.02
-3.31
-11.68%
INGM
Ingram Micro Holding Corporation
21.93
2.59
13.42%
Verra Mobility Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Posts Strong 2025 Results, Issues 2026 Outlook
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Verra Mobility on February 24, 2026 reported full-year 2025 revenue of $979.1 million, up 11% year over year, and net income of $136.6 million, with improved adjusted EPS and operating cash flow but a lower adjusted EBITDA margin amid higher imple...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.