Verra Mobility (VRRM)
NASDAQ:VRRM
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Verra Mobility
(NASDAQ:VRRM)
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Rating:61Neutral
Price Target:
$14.00
▼(-8.02% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/27/26
The score is supported by strong underlying profitability and a much-improved balance sheet, but is held down by sharply negative corporate news (major contract loss and lowered 2026 outlook) and weak technicals. Moderating growth and weaker free cash flow conversion further limit upside, while valuation appears only moderate.
Positive Factors
High Profitability Margins
Very high gross margins and sustained ~38% EBITDA margins indicate durable pricing power and low incremental costs for additional transactions. This structural profitability supports reinvestment, resilience through volume swings, and long-term free cash generation to fund growth or returns.
Negative Factors
Major Contract Loss (Avis)
Loss of a >10% customer is a structural revenue shock that reduces visibility and forces reallocation of resources. Replacing this scale will take time; the gap pressures Commercial Services margins and may require lasting strategic shifts, contract renegotiation, or accelerated customer diversification.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Profitability Margins
Very high gross margins and sustained ~38% EBITDA margins indicate durable pricing power and low incremental costs for additional transactions. This structural profitability supports reinvestment, resilience through volume swings, and long-term free cash generation to fund growth or returns.
Read all positive factors
Verra Mobility (VRRM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$627.37M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.2
Beta (1Y)0.25
Revenue Growth9.71%
EPS Growth293.14%
CountryUS
Employees1,754
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding151,906,650
10 Day Avg. Volume9,511,619
30 Day Avg. Volume4,236,324
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.07
Price to Book (P/B)12.16
Price to Sales (P/S)3.64
P/FCF Ratio26.06
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue0.67
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit0.69
Enterprise Value/Ebitda1.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$6.60Price Target Upside-56.64% Downside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.02B
Verra Mobility Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Verra Mobility Corporation provides smart mobility technology solutions and services in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Europe. It operates through three segments: Commercial Services; Government Solutions; and Parking Solutions. The Gov...
How the Company Makes Money
Verra Mobility makes money by charging customers for technology-enabled services and long-term managed programs across its two primary segments:
1) Government Solutions (automated traffic enforcement)
- Program/managed services fees: For municipa...
Verra Mobility Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presents a mixed but broadly balanced picture: clear operational and strategic positives (strong Government Solutions bookings, MOSAIC progress with multi-year cost savings, margin expansion in Parking Solutions, disciplined capital returns) were offset by near-term profitability and cash-flow pressures (Q1 free cash flow shortfall, adjusted and GAAP EPS declines, FMC churn and product revenue dips, and NYC-driven margin headwinds). Management reaffirmed full-year guidance and outlined concrete cost-savings and reinvestment plans, but material margin compression is expected in 2026 with recovery targeted for 2027.Positive Updates
Top-Line in Line with Expectations
Total revenue of $224 million for Q1 2026, reported as aligned with internal expectations and forming a solid start to 2026.
Negative Updates
Adjusted and GAAP EPS Declines
GAAP diluted EPS of $0.17 vs $0.20 prior year (-15%); adjusted EPS $0.25 vs $0.30 prior year (-16.7%), driven by lower adjusted EBITDA, higher depreciation, and other timing/expense items.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Top-Line in Line with Expectations
Total revenue of $224 million for Q1 2026, reported as aligned with internal expectations and forming a solid start to 2026.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed full‑year 2026 guidance: total revenue $1.02–$1.03 billion, adjusted EBITDA $405–$415 million (≈40% margin, ~250 bps decline vs. 2025), adjusted EPS $1.32–$1.38, free cash flow $150–$160 million (high‑30s% conversion of adjusted EBITDA) and CapEx of about $125 million; they expect a 2026 effective tax rate of 28–29% (Q1 was 34%). Segment pacing: Government Solutions—high‑end mid‑single‑digit total revenue growth for 2026 with low‑double‑digit service growth outside NYC and NYC growing high‑single to low‑double digits, GS margins down ~450–500 bps vs. 2025 to the low‑20s for the year with a ramp to mid‑20s by Q4; Commercial Services to accelerate to mid‑single‑digit revenue growth with expanding margins (CS Q1 revenue down ~4%, RAC +1%, FMC −19%), Parking Solutions up mid‑single digits with slightly accretive margins. Other metrics and capital posture: MOSAIC targeted cost savings of ~$10–$15 million in 2027, Q1 results were revenue $224M, adjusted EBITDA $86M, net income $27M, adjusted EPS $0.25 (GAAP $0.17), OCF $41M, FCF $10M, net debt ≈$1.0B, net leverage 2.5x, and share repurchases of ~2.2M shares for ~$50M in Q1 (cumulative $184M of $250M authorization, ~$66M remaining).Verra Mobility Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
64
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 979.39M | 979.08M | 879.21M | 817.31M | 741.60M | 550.59M |
| Gross Profit | 954.50M | 948.76M | 860.22M | 773.85M | 694.34M | 515.44M |
| EBITDA | 367.72M | 375.92M | 262.08M | 287.52M | 336.65M | 229.64M |
| Net Income | 131.04M | 136.63M | 31.45M | 57.02M | 92.47M | 41.45M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.66B | 1.65B | 1.61B | 1.79B | 1.76B | 1.84B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 46.89M | 65.27M | 77.56M | 138.63M | 105.20M | 101.28M |
| Total Debt | 73.61M | 38.23M | 1.07B | 1.07B | 1.25B | 1.28B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.38B | 1.35B | 1.35B | 1.37B | 1.53B | 1.58B |
| Stockholders Equity | 272.00M | 292.96M | 265.13M | 421.47M | 231.07M | 259.96M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 103.86M | 136.71M | 152.79M | 148.62M | 170.15M | 168.17M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 232.91M | 255.80M | 223.64M | 206.10M | 218.34M | 193.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -128.66M | -118.79M | -69.72M | -58.29M | -48.59M | -475.97M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -170.05M | -150.97M | -211.43M | -117.79M | -164.93M | 268.72M |
Verra Mobility Technical Analysis
Negative
15.22
Price Trends
13.78
Negative
16.33
Negative
19.88
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.12
Positive
12.29
Positive
7.43
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VRRM, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.22 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.34, above the 50-day MA of 13.78, and below the 200-day MA of 19.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 12.29 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 7.43 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VRRM.
Verra Mobility Risk Analysis
Verra Mobility disclosed 40 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Verra Mobility reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Verra Mobility Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $2.92B | 39.87 | 13.47% | ― | 33.01% | 44.89% | |
69 Neutral | $4.47B | 13.10 | 23.73% | 1.69% | -2.90% | 6.89% | |
66 Neutral | $6.27B | 18.45 | 8.61% | 1.39% | 10.87% | 27.94% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
61 Neutral | $627.37M | 5.23 | 39.70% | ― | 9.71% | 293.14% | |
52 Neutral | $1.62B | -1.31 | -37.51% | 3.38% | 3.81% | -636.38% |
* Technology Sector Average
VRRM
Verra Mobility
4.51
-19.14
-80.93%
SAIC
Science Applications
104.20
-9.72
-8.53%
CNXC
Concentrix
28.29
-25.70
-47.60%
PAY
Paymentus Holdings
23.49
-14.70
-38.49%
INGM
Ingram Micro Holding Corporation
28.25
9.40
49.84%
Verra Mobility Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Updates 2026 Outlook After Major Contract Loss
Negative
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Verra Mobility announced that Avis Budget Group had issued a notice terminating its contract with the company, effective September 2026, ending a relationship with a Commercial Services client that accounted for more than 10% of V...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Verra Mobility Shareholders Back Directors and Compensation Policies
Positive
May 20, 2026
At its 2026 annual meeting of stockholders held on May 19, 2026, Verra Mobility shareholders elected three Class II directors, Patrick J. Byrne, David M. Roberts and John H. Rexford, to serve terms running until the 2029 annual meeting or until su...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackFinancial Disclosures
Verra Mobility Reports Flat Q1 Results, Reaffirms 2026 Outlook
Neutral
May 6, 2026
Verra Mobility reported first quarter 2026 results on May 6, 2026, posting essentially flat revenue at $223.6 million, net income of $26.7 million, and net cash from operations of $40.8 million, while reaffirming full-year 2026 guidance. The quart...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.