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Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST)
NYSE:VIST

Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) AI Stock Analysis

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VIST

Vista Energy SAB de CV

(NYSE:VIST)

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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
,
Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
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Outperform 71 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
$81.00
â–²(11.02% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/07/26
The score is most constrained by cash-flow and balance-sheet risk (negative free cash flow, weaker cash conversion, and higher leverage). Offsetting this are strong price momentum and a low P/E valuation, supported by a constructive earnings-call outlook driven by rapid production and revenue growth.
Positive Factors
Rapid Production Scale-up
Sustained, large production growth materially increases operating scale and underpins medium‑term cash generation potential. Higher volumes improve fixed-cost dilution, support export volumes at parity pricing, and provide a stronger base for future reinvestment and debt servicing if prices remain stable.
Material Reserve Expansion
A much larger, certified proved reserve base extends medium‑term production visibility and reduces geological risk per unit of production. Higher reserves and a 14‑year P1 life enhance long‑term cash flow predictability and support multi‑year development planning and capital allocation in Vaca Muerta.
Strategic Vaca Muerta Acquisitions
Acquiring contiguous Vaca Muerta interests and nearby inventory strengthens operational synergies, increases high‑quality drilling inventory, and can lower per‑well costs. Combined with midstream arrangements, this deepens the company’s competitive position in Argentina’s premier unconventional basin.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Persistent negative free cash flow signals that capital spending and working capital are outpacing operating cash generation, requiring external funding or asset sales. Over months, this raises execution and refinancing risk, constrains flexibility for returns, and magnifies dependence on commodity prices and financing access.
Rising Leverage
A step‑up in leverage weakens financial flexibility and raises vulnerability to oil price or operational shocks. Higher debt amplifies cash interest and covenant exposure, reducing capacity to fund growth internally and making the company more sensitive to refinancing conditions over the next several quarters.
Acquisition & Regulatory Execution Risk
Large, complex transactions funded by mixed cash, shares and a new credit line introduce integration, timing and funding risk. Pending antitrust approvals and contingent payments could delay synergies, increase near‑term financing needs, or alter deal economics, impacting expected free cash flow and leverage profiles.

Vista Energy SAB de CV (VIST) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Vista Energy SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Energy makes money primarily by producing and selling hydrocarbons. Its main revenue stream is the sale of crude oil produced from its operated fields (largely unconventional shale wells), with additional revenue from sales of natural gas and, where applicable, natural gas liquids. Revenue is driven by (1) production volumes (how many barrels of oil equivalent it produces and sells), (2) realized prices (linked to oil and gas market prices and local pricing/export dynamics), and (3) the product mix (oil vs. gas vs. NGLs). The company invests capital in drilling and completing wells and in production facilities; once wells are online, it generates cash flow from selling produced hydrocarbons while incurring operating costs (lifting, transportation, processing), royalties, and taxes. Vista may also generate or impact earnings through commodity hedging and by periodically acquiring or divesting upstream assets, but details of material partnerships or specific contract terms are null.

Vista Energy SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 22, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlights a strong operational and financial performance with significant production and revenue growth. However, concerns about free cash flow and declining realized oil prices slightly tempered the overall positive achievements.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 127,000 BOEs per day, an increase of 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter. Oil production was 110,000 barrels per day, an interannual increase of 73% and 7% sequentially.
Strong Financial Performance
Total revenues during the quarter were $706 million, 53% above the same quarter of last year and 16% above the previous quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an interannual increase of 52% and a sequential increase of 70%.
Successful Well Tie-Ins
Connected 24 wells during Q3, contributing to the production growth, with plans to accelerate new well activity in Q4 with 12 to 16 tie-ins.
Robust Export Activity
Oil exports increased 84% year-over-year to 6.3 million barrels for the quarter. 100% of oil volumes were sold at export parity prices.
Negative Updates
Free Cash Flow Concerns
Free cash flow in this quarter was almost neutral at minus $29 million, driven by higher adjusted EBITDA and a decrease in working capital.
Decline in Realized Oil Prices
Realized oil prices were $64.6 per barrel on average, down 5% on an interannual basis, even though they were up 4% on a sequential basis.
Company Guidance
During Vista's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided detailed guidance on its operational and financial performance, showcasing a strong quarter with several key metrics highlighted. Total production reached 127,000 BOEs per day, marking a 74% year-over-year and 7% quarter-on-quarter increase. Oil production alone was 110,000 barrels per day, reflecting a 73% rise from the previous year and 7% from the prior quarter. Total revenues surged to $706 million, up 53% from the previous year. The company reported a lifting cost of $4.4 per BOE, a 6% year-over-year reduction, and capital expenditures amounted to $351 million. Adjusted EBITDA was $472 million, an increase of 52% year-over-year and 70% sequentially. Adjusted net income was $155 million, while net income totaled $315 million, reflecting a $288 million gain from the Petronas Argentina acquisition. Earnings per share stood at $3, with adjusted earnings per share at $1.5. The company maintained a net leverage ratio of 1.5x adjusted EBITDA and planned to accelerate new well activity in Q4, with production expected to be around 130,000 BOEs per day. This positions Vista to potentially exceed production guidance for the year.

Vista Energy SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Strong revenue and profitability momentum (2025 net margin ~29%) is offset by weakened cash quality and funding risk: operating cash flow covers only ~0.62x of net income in 2025, free cash flow is negative in 2024–2025 (sharply negative in 2025), and leverage has risen with debt-to-equity increasing to ~1.31 in 2025.
Income Statement
78
Positive
Revenue has expanded strongly over the last several years (2021–2025), with 2025 showing solid growth. Profitability is a clear strength: 2025 net margin is ~29% with robust operating profitability, and net income has scaled materially from earlier years. The main caution is margin volatility—gross and operating margins have fluctuated meaningfully across years (notably the sharp swing from weak 2020 results to very strong 2023–2025), which is typical for the commodity cycle but still raises earnings stability risk.
Balance Sheet
62
Positive
The balance sheet has grown significantly, but leverage has also increased: debt-to-equity moved from ~0.55 (2023) and ~0.95 (2024) to ~1.31 in 2025, indicating a more debt-heavy capital structure. Equity has grown, yet the pace of debt growth in 2025 outstripped it, which reduces flexibility if oil prices weaken. Overall, asset scale and equity base are supportive, but the upward leverage trend is a notable risk.
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
Operating cash flow is positive, but cash conversion has weakened: operating cash flow covered net income by ~0.62x in 2025 (down from stronger coverage in prior years), suggesting earnings are less supported by cash generation. Free cash flow is the key concern—negative in both 2024 and 2025 (and sharply negative in 2025), implying heavy reinvestment and/or capital intensity that is outpacing operating inflows. This raises funding and execution risk, especially alongside rising leverage.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.48B1.65B1.17B1.14B652.19M
Gross Profit1.18B1.26B591.25M630.24M266.61M
EBITDA1.49B1.10B851.24M706.13M403.56M
Net Income721.38M477.52M396.95M269.54M50.65M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets7.11B4.23B2.60B2.04B1.68B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments538.41M764.31M213.25M244.96M315.31M
Total Debt3.30B1.54B686.52M578.53M638.05M
Total Liabilities4.60B2.61B1.35B1.19B1.12B
Stockholders Equity2.51B1.62B1.25B844.06M565.26M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-821.62M-93.50M16.30M204.38M78.50M
Operating Cash Flow638.48M959.03M712.03M689.77M401.39M
Investing Cash Flow-2.37B-1.05B-699.31M-582.71M-295.46M
Financing Cash Flow1.50B641.21M19.56M-143.20M6.53M

Vista Energy SAB de CV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price72.96
Price Trends
50DMA
56.69
Positive
100DMA
52.62
Positive
200DMA
47.37
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
3.61
Negative
RSI
79.00
Negative
STOCH
92.63
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 72.96 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 61.44, above the 50-day MA of 56.69, and above the 200-day MA of 47.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.61 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 79.00 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.63 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VIST.

Vista Energy SAB de CV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$5.57B10.7210.34%3.56%33.85%-34.08%
74
Outperform
$6.61B3.3214.00%4.38%34.93%-11.85%
71
Outperform
$6.84B6.9137.31%―50.79%32.97%
66
Neutral
$5.78B6.3515.52%―43.30%-43.07%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
62
Neutral
$5.44B42.922.03%4.15%-13.92%-68.34%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
VIST
Vista Energy SAB de CV
72.96
25.95
55.20%
CNX
CNX Resources
40.61
8.88
27.99%
MUR
Murphy Oil
38.10
12.70
50.01%
SM
SM Energy
27.75
-1.57
-5.36%
CRC
California Resources Corp
62.91
20.53
48.44%

Vista Energy SAB de CV Corporate Events

Vista Energy Sets Late-April Date to Release First-Quarter 2026 Results
Mar 18, 2026

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., the Mexico City-based energy producer listed in New York and Mexico, said it will disclose its consolidated financial statements for the first quarter of 2026 on April 29, 2026, after the market close. The company added that it will host a webcast to present the results on April 30, 2026, at 9:00 a.m. Mexico City time, signaling continued engagement with global investors ahead of the new reporting cycle.

The scheduled release and webcast indicate Vista’s intention to maintain transparency and regular communication with shareholders as it reports on its early-2026 performance. Investors will be watching the April disclosures for signals on the company’s operational momentum and financial trajectory in a volatile energy market environment.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Calls April 28, 2026 Shareholder Meeting to Ratify Capital Changes and Renew Buyback Authorization
Mar 17, 2026

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. has called its annual ordinary general shareholders’ meeting for April 28, 2026, in Mexico City to address a wide range of corporate governance and capital matters. The agenda includes ratifying a reduction in the variable portion of its capital stock and reviewing the CEO’s report and audited financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, along with the Board’s opinions on accounting policies and board-level activities.

Shareholders will also vote on reports from the Audit and Corporate Practices committees, a report on policies governing transactions in the company’s own shares, and a compensation plan for board members. In addition, they will consider authorizing up to US$150 million for share repurchases in fiscal 2026, with any unused amount available in 2027, a move that could affect capital allocation and shareholder returns, subject to approval and standard admission and proxy procedures for attending the meeting.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $70.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Files Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Earnings Webcast Materials
Feb 26, 2026

Vista Energy furnished a Form 6-K to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in February 2026, dated February 26, 2026, providing investors with its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 earnings webcast presentation. The filing underscores that some figures are unaudited, include non-IFRS metrics and projections, and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties, highlighting that actual future operating and financial results may differ materially from management’s expectations, which is relevant for shareholders assessing the company’s outlook and risk profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Files Unaudited 2025 Year-End Interim Financials With U.S. SEC
Feb 25, 2026

Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., a Mexico City-based upstream oil and gas producer focused on Latin American markets, has filed a Form 6-K as a foreign issuer with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for February 2026. The filing reflects the company’s ongoing compliance with cross-border reporting requirements tied to its Form 20-F status and listings in Mexico.

On February 25, 2026, Vista submitted unaudited interim condensed consolidated financial statements covering the years and three-month periods ended December 31, 2025 and 2024. The detailed statements of profit or loss, financial position, cash flows, and changes in equity provide investors and other stakeholders with updated visibility into revenue growth, operating profitability and tax charges, offering an interim view of financial performance ahead of full audited annual reporting.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Posts Strong 2025 Growth on Vaca Muerta Expansion and La Amarga Chica Deal
Feb 25, 2026

Vista Energy reported on February 25, 2026, that fourth‑quarter 2025 production rose to 135,414 boe/d, up 7% sequentially and 59% year‑on‑year, driven largely by the April 2025 acquisition of a 50% stake in the La Amarga Chica block and continued Vaca Muerta growth. Despite oil and gas price declines, Q4 revenues climbed 46% versus a year earlier to $689.2 million, with a 64% adjusted EBITDA margin and lower lifting and selling costs helped by the Oldelval Duplicar pipeline coming online and the dilution of fixed costs.

For full‑year 2025, Vista’s output rose 66% to 115,479 boe/d, supported by the completion and tie‑in of 74 new shale oil wells and an average shale production of 110,666 boe/d. Proved reserves jumped 57% to 588.1 MMboe, export volumes more than doubled to 22.2 million barrels, adjusted EBITDA increased 46% to $1.596 billion with a 65% margin, net income grew to $719 million, and scope 1 and 2 emissions intensity fell 23%, underscoring scale gains, stronger export positioning and progress on operating efficiency and sustainability.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Clears Key Hurdle in Vaca Muerta Asset Acquisition
Feb 19, 2026

On February 19, 2026, Vista Energy reported a key milestone in its planned acquisition of Equinor’s interests in the Vaca Muerta shale play in Argentina. Shell Argentina waived its right of first refusal over a 30% working interest in the Bandurria Sur block, clearing an important contractual hurdle for Vista’s previously announced deal.

The transaction covers a 25.1% working interest in Bandurria Sur and a 35% interest in the Bajo del Toro block, jointly acquired by Vista and its Argentine subsidiary. The deal now hinges on antitrust clearance from Chilean authorities tied to crude exports to Chile, with Vista and Equinor having filed with Chile’s Fiscalía Nacional Económica on February 11, 2026 and expecting closing in the second quarter of 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Boosts Proved Reserves 57% on Vaca Muerta Growth and Acquisitions
Feb 11, 2026

On February 11, 2026, Vista Energy reported certified proved (P1) oil and gas reserves of 588.1 million barrels of oil equivalent as of December 31, 2025, a 57% increase year-on-year. The expansion was driven by 255.1 MMboe in total additions, including material inorganic growth from the La Amarga Chica acquisition and Trafigura pad interests, and supported by strong organic development at its Vaca Muerta hub.

Vista’s reserve replacement ratio reached 605% in 2025, or 260% on an organic basis, implying a P1 reserve life of about 14 years off annual production of 42.1 MMboe. The bulk of reserves are concentrated in the Bajada del Palo Oeste and La Amarga Chica concessions, underscoring Vista’s growing scale and longer-lived production profile, which strengthen its asset base and visibility for shareholders in the regional unconventional hydrocarbons market.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Energy SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy to Acquire Equinor’s Vaca Muerta Stakes in US$712 Million Deal
Feb 2, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy announced a series of agreements to acquire Equinor’s interests in two core Vaca Muerta blocks, securing a 25.1% non-operating working interest in Bandurria Sur and a 35.0% non-operating working interest in Bajo del Toro, alongside related midstream arrangements. The structure includes buying Equinor’s Argentine entities and assets and then selling portions to YPF in back-to-back transactions, leaving Vista with net consideration at closing of about US$712 million, paid through a mix of cash and American Depositary Shares, plus a capped, Brent-linked contingent payment schedule. The deal will be funded with available cash and a new bank credit facility of up to US$600 million and remains subject to rights-of-first-refusal waivers from partners and Chilean antitrust approval for planned crude exports, with closing expected in the second quarter of 2026. Vista highlights the transaction as highly accretive on valuation metrics and transformational for its scale in Vaca Muerta, adding nearly 27,733 net acres, significant drilling inventory and reserves, and contributing roughly 21,869 boe/d of production by the third quarter of 2025, which would lift its pro forma output and proved reserves while supporting free cash flow targets and creating operating synergies with adjacent blocks it already operates with YPF.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Unveils Corporate Reorganization to Reshape Argentine Upstream Interests
Feb 2, 2026

On February 2, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. announced a corporate restructuring centered on expanding and reshaping its interests in key Argentine oil and gas blocks through a multi-step transaction with Equinor and YPF. Vista and its Argentine subsidiary agreed to acquire 100% of Equinor Argentina S.A.U., which holds a 30% working interest in the Bandurria Sur block, and 50% of the non-operating working interest in the Bajo del Toro Norte block, before subsequently assigning 16.3% of Equinor Argentina S.A.U. (equivalent to a 4.9% working interest in Bandurria Sur) and a 15.0% working interest in Bajo del Toro to YPF. The company emphasized that the transaction will not change the characteristics of its listed shares or the rights of existing shareholders, underscoring that the reorganization is aimed at repositioning its asset base in Argentina without altering its capital structure or investor protections.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Shareholders Approve New Mandate for Major Unconventional Hydrocarbon Acquisitions
Jan 27, 2026

At an ordinary general shareholders’ meeting held in Mexico City on January 27, 2026, Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. obtained shareholder approval to pursue one or more significant acquisitions of exploration and exploitation rights, interests in concessions, licenses and other assets related to unconventional hydrocarbon reserves in its operating basins. The authorization covers potential deals whose combined value may exceed 20% but not more than 50% of the company’s consolidated assets over a 12‑month period and delegates broad authority to the board of directors to set final terms and execute all necessary legal and commercial actions. These resolutions, which replace similar approvals granted at a March 3, 2025 shareholders’ meeting while preserving the validity of prior actions, signal an intention to accelerate growth in unconventional hydrocarbons and give management expanded flexibility to structure and finance sizable transactions that could materially reshape Vista Energy’s asset base and operational scale.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Vista Energy Sets Late-February 2026 Date to Release 2025 Annual and Q4 Results
Jan 14, 2026

Vista Energy announced on January 14, 2026, that it plans to release its consolidated financial statements for full-year 2025 and the fourth quarter of 2025 after markets close on February 25, 2026. The company will follow the release with a webcast presentation of the results on February 26, 2026, providing investors and analysts with an opportunity to review its latest financial and operational performance and reinforcing its emphasis on transparency and active engagement with the capital markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (VIST) stock is a Buy with a $65.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV stock, see the VIST Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 07, 2026