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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Sponsored ADR (VIST)
NYSE:VIST
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Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
(NYSE:VIST)
66Neutral
Positive Factors
Operational Performance
Vista posted 3Q24 EBITDA of US$310m, driven by accelerating production and benefiting from low lifting costs.
Production Growth
Vista 4Q24 production averaged 85.3kboed, which represents an increase of 17% QoQ and +51% YoY, driven by the tie-in of 25 wells between mid-August and early December.
Strategic Development
Vista's updated strategic plan balances capital discipline with further acceleration in the development of its Vaca Muerta shale blocks in Argentina.
Negative Factors
Cost Management
The sequential drop can be largely explained by two main factors: 1) lower oil realized prices at US$67.1/bbl; and 2) higher selling expenses due to a temporary increase in transportation of crude oil as they increased the volume sold via trucking.
Execution Risks
Execution would be a key downside risk, such as the company not delivering the expected number of wells, productivity coming below expectations or infrastructure development to support higher outflow not coming online or taking longer than expected.
Financial Forecasts
Lower oil price is the main reason for the reduced 2024-26 financial forecasts.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV (VIST) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.52B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)940.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)9.7
Beta (1Y)0.68
Revenue Growth45.43%
EPS Growth16.98%
CountryUS
Employees514
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength87
IndustryOil & Gas Exploration & Production
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.98
Shares Outstanding95,164,400
10 Day Avg. Volume705,289
30 Day Avg. Volume940,175
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.57
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)13.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)N/A
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$69.57Price Target Upside44.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionVista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V., through its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration and production of oil and gas in Latin America. The company's principal assets are located in Vaca Muerta with approximately 183, 100 acres. It also owns producing assets in Argentina and Mexico. As of December 31, 2021, it had proved reserves of 181.6 MMBOE. The company was formerly known as Vista Oil & Gas, S.A.B. de C.V. and changed its name to Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. in April 2022. Vista Energy, S.A.B. de C.V. was incorporated in 2017 and is based in Mexico City, Mexico.
How the Company Makes MoneyVista Oil & Gas generates revenue primarily through the exploration, development, and production of crude oil and natural gas. The company sells its produced hydrocarbons to domestic and international markets, often through long-term supply agreements and spot market sales. Key revenue streams include the sale of crude oil, which is typically priced in relation to global benchmarks such as Brent or WTI, and the sale of natural gas, which may be priced based on regional market conditions. Additionally, Vista Oil & Gas may engage in strategic partnerships or joint ventures to optimize production capabilities and expand its market reach. The company's earnings are influenced by factors such as global oil prices, production volumes, operational efficiencies, and regulatory policies in the regions where it operates.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Vista Oil & Gas exhibits strong growth and profitability with impressive revenue and profit margins. The balance sheet shows growing equity but a high debt-to-equity ratio, indicating leverage risks. Cash flow is solid, despite recent negative free cash flow due to investments. Overall, the company is on a positive trajectory, but leverage and cash flow stability should be monitored.Income Statement
Vista Oil & Gas has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with a CAGR of over 30% from 2020 to 2024. The gross profit margin has significantly improved, reaching approximately 76.2% in 2024. The net profit margin also saw a healthy increase, reaching 29% in 2024, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust, reflecting efficient operational management. Overall, there's a positive trajectory in revenue and profitability.85
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a stable increase in stockholders' equity over the years, with an equity ratio of about 38.3% in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively high at approximately 0.95, which may indicate potential leverage risks. However, the company has managed to grow its assets and equity significantly, suggesting a solid financial foundation.78
Positive
Cash Flow
Operating cash flow has grown consistently, with a substantial increase observed in 2024. The free cash flow fluctuated, turning negative in 2024 due to high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio remains strong, indicating that the company generates sufficient cash to support its operations. However, negative free cash flow could be a concern if it continues.72
Positive
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 1.65B | 1.17B | 1.14B | 652.19M | 273.94M | Gross Profit |
| 1.26B | 591.25M | 630.24M | 266.61M | 2.43M | EBIT |
| 625.39M | 631.49M | 529.15M | 210.55M | -53.56M | EBITDA |
| 1.06B | 851.24M | 706.13M | 403.56M | 90.23M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 477.52M | 396.95M | 269.54M | 50.65M | -102.75M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 764.31M | 213.25M | 244.96M | 315.31M | 203.27M | Total Assets |
| 4.23B | 2.60B | 2.04B | 1.68B | 1.37B | Total Debt |
| 1.54B | 686.52M | 578.53M | 638.05M | 563.47M | Net Debt |
| 788.62M | 477.01M | 554.62M | 559.95M | 560.59M | Total Liabilities |
| 2.61B | 1.35B | 1.19B | 1.12B | 864.09M | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.62B | 1.25B | 844.06M | 565.26M | 508.52M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -93.50M | 16.30M | 204.38M | 78.50M | -63.14M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 959.03M | 712.03M | 689.77M | 401.39M | 93.78M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -1.05B | -699.31M | -582.71M | -295.46M | -156.10M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 641.21M | 19.56M | -143.20M | 6.53M | 30.89M |
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Technical Analysis
Neutral
48.10
Price Trends
51.14
Negative
52.36
Negative
49.65
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.82
Negative
50.05
Neutral
68.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VIST, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 48.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.95, below the 50-day MA of 51.14, and below the 200-day MA of 49.65, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.82 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 50.05 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 68.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for VIST.
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (58)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
81 Outperform | $21.39B | 5.78 | 18.70% | 15.10% | -1.24% | -16.75% | |
76 Outperform | $87.91B | 13.55 | 10.52% | 18.43% | -10.81% | -70.65% | |
76 Outperform | $17.74B | 6.21 | 22.65% | ― | 7.35% | ― | |
74 Outperform | $4.05B | 10.29 | 7.77% | 4.42% | -12.48% | -36.47% | |
71 Outperform | $3.52B | 4.58 | 19.62% | 2.47% | 13.33% | -2.72% | |
66 Neutral | $4.52B | 9.67 | 33.30% | ― | 45.43% | 16.98% | |
58 Neutral | $9.25B | 5.52 | -6.24% | 7.43% | -0.10% | -69.94% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
VIST
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV
48.47
7.09
17.13%
EC
Ecopetrol SA
10.39
<0.01
0.10%
MUR
Murphy Oil
28.50
-15.59
-35.36%
PBR
Petroleo Brasileiro SA- Petrobras
14.39
1.72
13.58%
SM
SM Energy
30.25
-18.76
-38.28%
YPF
YPF Sociedad Anonima
37.37
17.57
88.74%
Vista Oil & Gas SAB de CV Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Oct 23, 2024 | % Change Since: 0.75% | Next Earnings Date: Apr 23, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong operational and financial performance, with significant production and revenue growth, successful export strategies, and updated guidance showing positive future prospects. However, there were concerns about negative free cash flow and increased operational costs.Highlights
Significant Production Increase
Total production was 72,800 BOEs per day, marking a 47% year-over-year increase and 12% quarter-over-quarter growth. Oil production specifically increased by 53% year-over-year.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Total revenues for the quarter reached $462 million, showing a 53% increase year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA was $310 million, a 37% increase compared to the same quarter last year.
Export Strategy Success
Vista exported 3.5 million barrels of oil during the quarter, which is 57% more than the previous year. 72% of total oil sales were at export parity prices.
Guidance Update
Updated 2025 guidance with a forecast of total production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels of oil per day, indicating more than a 40% growth.
Operational Milestones
Secured oil midstream capacity of 124,000 barrels per day by year-end 2025 and secured a third drilling rig and a second frac set.
Lowlights
Negative Free Cash Flow
The free cash flow for the quarter was negative at $74 million, primarily due to increased cash in investing activities.
Increased Lifting Costs
Lifting costs per BOE increased by 5% sequentially, driven by higher costs in gathering, processing, gas compression, and power generation.
Company Guidance
During Vista's Q3 2024 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance marked by a significant operational and financial performance. Total production reached 72,800 BOEs per day, a 47% increase year-over-year, and oil production was 63,500 barrels per day, 53% higher compared to the same quarter last year. Total revenues were $462 million, reflecting a 53% year-over-year growth. The lifting cost was reported at $4.70 per BOE, a 2% decrease from the previous year. Capital expenditure was $369 million, driven by the drilling of 12 new wells and completion of 15 wells, along with $63 million in development facilities. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $310 million, a 37% increase year-over-year, while adjusted net income was $53 million, equating to an adjusted EPS of $0.60 per share. The free cash flow was negative $74 million due to increased capital expenditure, and the net leverage ratio stood at 0.65x adjusted EBITDA. For 2025, Vista forecasts total production between 95,000 and 100,000 barrels per day, with an adjusted EBITDA of $1.5 billion to $1.65 billion and a capital expenditure range of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion, excluding potential investments in the Vaca Muerta Sul oil pipeline and export terminal. The company aims for a realized oil price of $67 to $72 per barrel, assuming a Brent price of $75 to $80 per barrel.Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.