Victory Capital Holdings (VCTR)
NASDAQ:VCTR
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Victory Capital Holdings
(NASDAQ:VCTR)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
$74.00
â–²(13.88% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/25/26
VCTR scores well on fundamentals and management commentary: strong margins/cash conversion, improved leverage, and confident 2026 synergy and profitability outlook. The score is held back by weakening TTM revenue/FCF trends, soft technical momentum (negative MACD; below 20/50DMA), and added uncertainty from the withdrawn Janus Henderson bid. Valuation and dividend yield provide support.
Positive Factors
High profitability & cash conversion
Sustained high margins and nearly one‑for‑one free cash flow conversion indicate durable earnings quality. This cash generation underpins shareholder returns, funds M&A or buybacks, and provides a cushion through market cycles, supporting long‑term operational flexibility independent of short‑term AUM swings.
Negative Factors
Revenue and FCF deterioration
Material TTM declines in revenue and free cash flow signal weakening organic growth and reduce internal funding for investments. If sustained, lower top‑line and cash trends can compress long‑term earnings power, limit strategic flexibility, and increase reliance on non‑organic levers to sustain targets.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High profitability & cash conversion
Sustained high margins and nearly one‑for‑one free cash flow conversion indicate durable earnings quality. This cash generation underpins shareholder returns, funds M&A or buybacks, and provides a cushion through market cycles, supporting long‑term operational flexibility independent of short‑term AUM swings.
Read all positive factors
Victory Capital Holdings (VCTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$4.16B
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)831.41K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.5
Beta (1Y)1.09
Revenue Growth33.03%
EPS Growth-3.55%
CountryUS
Employees460
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.78
Shares Outstanding64,049,640
10 Day Avg. Volume851,178
30 Day Avg. Volume831,406
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-1.64
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.16
P/FCF Ratio17.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.19
Enterprise Value/Revenue3.80
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit5.35
Enterprise Value/Ebitda8.78
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$74.25Price Target Upside14.27% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)6.99
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.52B
Victory Capital Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset management company worldwide. It offers investment advisory, fund administration, fund compliance, fund transfer agent, and fund distribution services. The compan...
How the Company Makes Money
Victory Capital primarily generates revenue by charging asset-based management fees for overseeing client assets (AUM) across its investment strategies and product wrappers (e.g., mutual funds, ETFs, and separately managed accounts). These fees ty...
Victory Capital Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Victory Capital Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record revenue, record adjusted EBITDA and margins, substantial sales and AUM growth (largely fueled by the Pioneer acquisition), robust ETF performance, and significant progress on synergy realization and balance sheet strengthening. The primary negatives were an off‑trend Q4 net outflow of $2.1 billion driven by a few one‑off items, the timing required to ramp international flows and UCITS contributions, and the reliance on inorganic growth to drive much of the year’s headline increases. On balance, the positive achievements, clear synergy progression and strong capital position substantially outweigh the limited and explained negatives.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Earnings
Total revenue for FY2025 surpassed $1 billion, reaching $1.3 billion. Fourth-quarter revenue was $374.1 million, up 3.6% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $197.5 million (up 3.7% QoQ) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 52.8%. Adjusted net income with tax benefit was $151.7 million, or $1.78 per diluted share (record quarterly adjusted EPS).
Negative Updates
Off-Trend Net Outflows in Q4
Long-term net outflows were $2.1 billion in Q4 versus $244 million in Q3. Management attributed this to one large platform redemption (close to $1 billion) and several year-end client reallocations; the quarter was characterized as an off-trend net flow quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue and Earnings
Total revenue for FY2025 surpassed $1 billion, reaching $1.3 billion. Fourth-quarter revenue was $374.1 million, up 3.6% sequentially. Adjusted EBITDA reached a record $197.5 million (up 3.7% QoQ) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 52.8%. Adjusted net income with tax benefit was $151.7 million, or $1.78 per diluted share (record quarterly adjusted EPS).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company guided to a steady 2026 revenue realization rate of 46–47 basis points and reiterated it is on track to realize the full $110 million of targeted net expense synergies during calendar 2026 (approximately $97 million, or 88%, already realized on a run-rate basis), while maintaining industry‑leading profitability (Q4 adjusted EBITDA $197.5M; adjusted EBITDA margin 52.8%; Q4 revenue $374.1M; full‑year revenue ~$1.3B; adjusted net income with tax benefit $151.7M or $1.78 ANI EPS). Capital allocation guidance prioritized M&A and share repurchases (Q4 repurchases: 814k shares for $51.6M at ~$63 avg; >$300M capacity remaining under a $500M authorization), with a $0.49 quarterly dividend declared, and an emphasis on using a strong balance sheet (net leverage ~1.0x; Term Loan B priced at SOFR+200bps; $164M cash; $100M revolver undrawn) to support transformational deals. Management expects consistent positive net flows over time (despite Q4 long‑term net outflows of $2.1B and record quarterly gross sales of $17.1B), continued ETF momentum (Q4 ETF net inflows $1B; VictoryShares fee avg ~34 bps; ETF AUM ~ $19B), and international ramp-up (17% of AUM outside the U.S. across 60 countries, five UCITS launched in Q4 with more planned in 2026).Victory Capital Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
70
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.31B | 893.48M | 821.03M | 854.80M | 890.26M |
| Gross Profit | 928.44M | 529.77M | 455.97M | 455.50M | 479.05M |
| EBITDA | 565.96M | 481.37M | 394.32M | 440.14M | 391.80M |
| Net Income | 330.06M | 288.86M | 213.16M | 275.51M | 278.39M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 4.25B | 2.55B | 2.54B | 2.54B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 163.69M | 126.73M | 123.55M | 38.17M | 69.53M |
| Total Debt | 970.01M | 963.86M | 989.27M | 985.51M | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.82B | 1.43B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.42B | 1.12B | 1.05B | 1.07B | 929.93M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 236.85M | 338.70M | 325.12M | 329.97M | 363.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 240.41M | 339.98M | 330.29M | 335.21M | 376.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 77.66M | -3.98M | -7.84M | -6.32M | -556.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -329.45M | -332.76M | -237.13M | -360.19M | 227.22M |
Victory Capital Holdings Technical Analysis
Negative
64.98
Price Trends
70.03
Negative
66.47
Negative
66.13
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.74
Positive
39.47
Neutral
43.69
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCTR, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 64.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.00, below the 50-day MA of 70.03, and below the 200-day MA of 66.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.74 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 43.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for VCTR.
Victory Capital Holdings Risk Analysis
Victory Capital Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Victory Capital Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Victory Capital Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $4.27B | 9.70 | 35.33% | 2.46% | 9.32% | 53.51% | |
78 Outperform | $3.36B | 12.97 | 18.76% | 8.93% | ― | -12.92% | |
72 Outperform | $7.20B | 11.47 | 22.04% | 0.01% | 1.08% | 8.24% | |
70 Outperform | $4.16B | 12.51 | 15.65% | 3.00% | 33.03% | -3.55% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | $3.15B | 21.00 | 28.53% | 3.92% | 12.73% | 19.01% | |
65 Neutral | $2.87B | 9.21 | 73.54% | 8.72% | 5.46% | 2.10% |
* Financial Sector Average
VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings
64.98
8.80
15.66%
AMG
Affiliated Managers
269.88
101.88
60.64%
AB
AllianceBernstein
36.46
1.22
3.47%
CNS
Cohen & Steers
61.38
-16.05
-20.73%
FHI
Federated Hermes
56.18
16.54
41.73%
APAM
Artisan Partners
35.60
-0.20
-0.57%
Victory Capital Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Victory Capital Withdraws Janus Henderson Acquisition Proposal
Negative
Mar 24, 2026
On March 24, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. announced that it had withdrawn its proposal to acquire Janus Henderson Group plc, after concluding it could not secure a negotiated, consensual agreement backed by Janus Henderson’s Special ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Victory Capital Defends Bid in Janus Henderson Acquisition Battle
Positive
Mar 23, 2026
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. is a U.S.-based asset management firm listed on Nasdaq under the ticker VCTR, offering a range of investment products and strategies to financial advisors, institutional clients and individual investors. The company ...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
Victory Capital Ups Bid in Janus Henderson Pursuit
Positive
Mar 17, 2026
On March 17, 2026, Victory Capital announced it had submitted an improved, fully financed proposal to acquire Janus Henderson Group, offering $40 in cash plus 0.25 Victory Capital shares per Janus Henderson share. The revised terms value Janus Hen...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Victory Capital Grants Long-Term Performance-Based Executive Equity Awards
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 13, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. approved a one-time grant of performance-based restricted stock awards to key executives, including CEO David C. Brown and other senior leaders, under its 2018 Equity Plan. The awards are intended ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Broad-Based Growth in Client Assets
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc., a diversified global asset manager based in San Antonio, Texas, serves institutional, intermediary, and individual investors with specialized strategies across traditional and alternative asset classes. Its model co...
M&A Transactions
Victory Capital Reaffirms Fully Financed Janus Henderson Bid
Positive
Feb 26, 2026
On February 26, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings reaffirmed and detailed a fully financed proposal to acquire Janus Henderson Group, offering $57.04 per share in a mix of $30.00 cash and Victory Capital stock. The bid implies a 37% premium to Janus ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Growth in Assets Under Management
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
On February 11, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings reported that total assets under management rose to $320.2 billion and total client assets reached $323.2 billion as of January 31, 2026. Average total AUM for January was $318.3 billion, indicating a...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Stable AUM Amid Q4 Client Outflows
Negative
Jan 13, 2026
On January 13, 2026, Victory Capital reported that as of December 31, 2025, it managed $313.8 billion in total assets under management and $2.8 billion in other assets, for total client assets of $316.6 billion, with U.S. client assets accounting ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.