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Victory Capital Holdings
(NASDAQ:VCTR)
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Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
$106.00
▲(43.50% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/14/26
VCTR scores well primarily on strong financial performance (high margins, improving revenue growth, and excellent free-cash-flow conversion) and a positive earnings-call read-through (record results, synergy capture, shareholder returns, and low net leverage). Technicals add support with a clear uptrend, though momentum is somewhat stretched. Valuation is fair with a supportive dividend, but not discounted, making continued flow stabilization an important swing factor.
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
FCF roughly equals reported net income (~0.99x TTM) and grew ~11% TTM. Durable cash conversion underpins sustained capital returns, debt service, and M&A funding capacity, giving management flexibility to execute buybacks, dividends and strategic bolt-on acquisitions over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Persistent long-term net outflows
Firm-wide long-term net outflows (-$457M in Q1) are a durable operational headwind because management fees scale with AUM. Continued net redemptions would pressure revenue growth and margin leverage even if gross sales remain strong, slowing sustainable earnings expansion over ensuing quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow conversion
FCF roughly equals reported net income (~0.99x TTM) and grew ~11% TTM. Durable cash conversion underpins sustained capital returns, debt service, and M&A funding capacity, giving management flexibility to execute buybacks, dividends and strategic bolt-on acquisitions over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Victory Capital Holdings Key Performance Indicators (KPIs)
Any
Revenue by Segment
Breaks down where Victory Capital earns its revenue—management fees, performance fees, advisory or distribution—and shows which businesses drive growth and profitability. Reveals how dependent results are on AUM and market returns versus recurring or higher-margin businesses, highlighting where fee pressure or client outflows could hurt earnings and where strategic shifts could boost margins.
Breaks down where Victory Capital earns its revenue—management fees, performance fees, advisory or distribution—and shows which businesses drive growth and profitability. Reveals how dependent results are on AUM and market returns versus recurring or higher-margin businesses, highlighting where fee pressure or client outflows could hurt earnings and where strategic shifts could boost margins.
Data provided by:
The Fly
The FlyVictory Capital Holdings (VCTR) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$6.16B
Dividend Yield3%
Average Volume (3M)493.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)22.0
Beta (1Y)1.20
Revenue Growth62.31%
EPS Growth-1.99%
CountryUS
Employees699
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.48
Shares Outstanding62,531,105
10 Day Avg. Volume507,994
30 Day Avg. Volume493,252
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-2.01
Price to Book (P/B)1.70
Price to Sales (P/S)3.16
P/FCF Ratio17.43
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$90.00Price Target Upside21.84% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)7.43
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.58B
Victory Capital Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. operates as a global asset management enterprise, along with its various subsidiaries. The firm provides an extensive suite of services, encompassing investment advisory, fund administration, compliance, transfer age...
How the Company Makes Money
Victory Capital primarily makes money by charging fees for managing client assets (assets under management, or AUM). Its largest revenue stream is investment advisory/management fees, which are generally calculated as a percentage of average AUM a...
Victory Capital Holdings Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted multiple record results — revenue, gross sales, adjusted EBITDA, and EPS — strong ETF and international momentum, substantial capital returns, and near-complete Pioneer integration with most synergies realized. Key challenges were that firm-wide long-term net flows remained negative in the quarter (-$457M), total client assets were slightly below the record, and Q1 operating expenses rose on seasonal and integration-related items. On balance the positive operational and strategic progress (record metrics, distribution expansion, strong investment performance, and capital returns) outweigh the remaining flow and seasonal expense headwinds.Positive Updates
Record Financial Results
Total revenue of $388M (up 4% QoQ, up 77% YoY), record adjusted EBITDA of $204M with a 52.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and adjusted net income with tax benefit of $153.2M or $1.82 per diluted share (up 2% QoQ, up 34% YoY).
Negative Updates
Firm-Wide Long-Term Net Flows Still Negative
Long-term net flows were negative $457M in Q1 (improved sequentially but still net outflows), reflecting that record gross flows have not fully converted to positive net AUM growth.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Financial Results
Total revenue of $388M (up 4% QoQ, up 77% YoY), record adjusted EBITDA of $204M with a 52.6% adjusted EBITDA margin, and adjusted net income with tax benefit of $153.2M or $1.82 per diluted share (up 2% QoQ, up 34% YoY).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management’s forward-looking guidance emphasized fee‑rate stability and disciplined capital allocation: they expect the firm‑wide average fee rate to remain about 46–47 bps (Q1 was 47.6 bps; average ETF fee ~35 bps), plan to capture the remaining ≈$6M of Pioneer synergies this year (≈$104M realized of a $110M target), and intend to sustain strong margins (Q1 adjusted EBITDA $204M; margin 52.6%). Capital priorities remain M&A first while continuing buybacks and dividends (Q1 repurchases 2.0M shares; $185M returned in the quarter; $512M returned TTM; dividend raised to $0.50/sh payable June 25), supported by a flexible balance sheet (net leverage 1.1x; $76M cash; $980M debt; $100M revolver undrawn) to fund acquisitions, additional ETF/UCITS launches (3 ETFs filed in Q1) and international growth (ETF AUM >$20B with $1.3B ETF net flows; international AUM $55B across 60 countries).Victory Capital Holdings Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
86
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.47B | 1.31B | 893.48M | 821.03M | 854.80M | 890.26M |
| Gross Profit | 1.05B | 928.44M | 529.77M | 455.97M | 455.50M | 479.05M |
| EBITDA | 644.51M | 565.96M | 481.37M | 394.32M | 440.14M | 391.80M |
| Net Income | 380.23M | 330.06M | 288.86M | 213.16M | 275.51M | 278.39M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 4.14B | 4.25B | 2.55B | 2.54B | 2.54B | 2.58B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 75.85M | 163.69M | 126.73M | 123.55M | 38.17M | 69.53M |
| Total Debt | 1.01B | 970.01M | 963.86M | 989.27M | 985.51M | 1.13B |
| Total Liabilities | 1.78B | 1.82B | 1.43B | 1.49B | 1.48B | 1.65B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.36B | 2.42B | 1.12B | 1.05B | 1.07B | 929.93M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 421.55M | 236.85M | 338.70M | 325.12M | 329.97M | 363.52M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 424.97M | 240.41M | 339.98M | 330.29M | 335.21M | 376.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 94.93M | 77.66M | -3.98M | -7.84M | -6.32M | -556.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -619.79M | -329.45M | -332.76M | -237.13M | -360.19M | 227.22M |
Victory Capital Holdings Technical Analysis
Positive
73.87
Price Trends
87.14
Positive
78.53
Positive
71.75
Positive
Market Momentum
3.56
Negative
69.41
Neutral
83.80
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 73.87 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 89.37, below the 50-day MA of 87.14, and above the 200-day MA of 71.75, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 3.56 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.80 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VCTR.
Victory Capital Holdings Risk Analysis
Victory Capital Holdings disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Victory Capital Holdings reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Victory Capital Holdings Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $6.16B | 21.99 | 15.76% | 3.00% | 62.31% | -1.99% | |
76 Outperform | $4.46B | 11.24 | 33.93% | 2.46% | 12.27% | 45.13% | |
75 Outperform | $9.77B | 13.66 | 23.38% | 0.01% | 4.59% | 88.44% | |
73 Outperform | $3.54B | 11.66 | 21.99% | 8.93% | ― | -12.21% | |
73 Outperform | $3.12B | 9.46 | 71.27% | 8.72% | 9.72% | 8.92% | |
69 Neutral | $4.35B | 27.94 | 28.28% | 3.92% | 12.59% | 2.98% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% |
* Financial Sector Average
VCTR
Victory Capital Holdings
98.52
33.34
51.15%
AMG
Affiliated Managers
369.83
163.20
78.98%
AB
AllianceBernstein
37.90
-0.20
-0.51%
CNS
Cohen & Steers
84.65
13.54
19.04%
FHI
Federated Hermes
58.69
12.58
27.27%
APAM
Artisan Partners
38.51
-2.71
-6.58%
Victory Capital Holdings Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Record Second-Quarter Asset Growth
Positive
Jul 13, 2026
On June 13, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings Inc. reported that its total assets under management reached $342.4 billion and total client assets stood at $346.1 billion as of June 30, 2026. The firm’s asset mix showed strength in solutions, fi...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital reports May 2026 asset growth momentum
Positive
Jun 9, 2026
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc., a diversified global asset manager, reported that as of May 31, 2026, it managed $338.9 billion in total assets under management, $3.6 billion in other assets, and $342.4 billion in total client assets. For May, ave...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Victory Capital Reprices Term Loans to Lower Financing Costs
Positive
May 21, 2026
On May 18, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. entered into a Seventh Amendment to its existing credit agreement, working with Bank of America, N.A. as administrative agent and its existing lender group. The company refinanced its existing term l...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Victory Capital Reports Strong April Asset Growth Momentum
Positive
May 12, 2026
Victory Capital reported that as of April 30, 2026, it managed $329.1 billion in total assets under management, $3.5 billion in other assets, and $332.6 billion in total client assets, reflecting substantial growth from March 31, 2026. Long-term a...
Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Victory Capital Shareholders Back Board, Auditor and Pay
Positive
May 12, 2026
Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. reported the results of its 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders held on May 6, 2026, where shareholders voted on board elections, auditor ratification, and executive compensation matters. Stockholders elected Class I...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.