Victory Capital Holdings (VCTR) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $4.95B
• Dividend Yield: 3%
• Average Volume (3M): 388.86K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.11
• Revenue Growth: 33.03%
• EPS Growth: -3.55%
• Country: US
• Employees: 460
• Sector: Financial
• Sector Strength: 70
• Industry: Asset Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.78
• Shares Outstanding: 64,935,455
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 613,104
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 388,856
• PEG Ratio: -0.99
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.70
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.16
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.43
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.15
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.12
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 8.56
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.34
• 1Y Price Target: $74.25
• Price Target Upside: -2.62% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: $84.00 ▲(10.16% Upside)

The score is driven by strong technical momentum and a positive earnings-call outlook (synergy delivery and profitability guidance), supported by solid profitability, cash conversion, and improved leverage. Offsetting these strengths are weaker recent financial trends (TTM revenue and free cash flow declines) and only mid-range valuation support.

Positive Factors

High Profitability & Margins

Sustained high margins across gross, EBIT and net indicate a durable earnings engine less sensitive to modest AUM swings. Strong margin structure supports cash generation, funds reinvestment, dividends and buybacks, and provides a buffer versus industry fee pressure over the next 2–6 months.

Strong Cash Conversion & Improved Leverage

Near‑parity FCF and net income plus markedly lower leverage improve financial flexibility for M&A, buybacks and dividend support. A stronger balance sheet reduces refinancing risk and gives management durable capacity to execute strategic deals and absorb temporary outflows.

Diversified Distribution & ETF Platform

A multi-channel distribution mix, large ETF platform with above‑average fee capture and record gross sales create recurring organic growth channels. Consistent ETF inflows and broad distribution reduce single‑channel concentration risk and underpin durable fee revenue and AUM stability.

Negative Factors

Weakening Top‑Line & FCF Trend

Material declines in trailing revenue and free cash flow signal structural pressure on fee generation and operating leverage. Even with high margins, falling revenue reduces absolute earnings and cash available for capital allocation, making growth and payout targets harder to sustain absent reacceleration.

Reliance on Inorganic Growth

Much of recent scale was acquisition-driven, which raises execution and integration risk and clouds the visibility of organic client retention and sales. Dependence on deals to hit AUM and revenue targets can make future growth lumpy and increase the cost of sustaining headline metrics.

Flow Volatility & Client Redemptions

Significant one‑off redemptions and volatile net flows create uncertainty in fee revenue and AUM forecasts. Persistent flow volatility forces greater reliance on balance sheet maneuvers or acquisition to offset declines and can pressure short‑term margins and client retention efforts.

Victory Capital Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Victory Capital Holdings, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an asset management company worldwide. It offers investment advisory, fund administration, fund compliance, fund transfer agent, and fund distribution services. The company provides specialized investment strategies to institutions, intermediaries, retirement platforms, and individual investors. As of December 31, 2021, its franchises and solutions platform managed a set of 130 investment strategies for a range of institutional and retail clients, and direct investors. The company has strategic alliance with Xavier University of Louisiana. Victory Capital Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Antonio, Texas.

How the Company Makes Money

Victory Capital generates revenue primarily through management fees and performance fees from its investment products. The company earns management fees based on the assets under management (AUM) across its various investment strategies, which can include mutual funds, separately managed accounts, and institutional investment products. Performance fees are earned when investment returns exceed specified benchmarks, providing an incentive for the firm to maximize client returns. Additionally, Victory Capital may benefit from revenue-sharing agreements with its distribution partners, which could include financial advisors and broker-dealers. The firm's extensive distribution network and partnerships enhance its ability to attract new clients and grow AUM, which is crucial for sustaining its revenue growth.

Victory Capital Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong underlying profitability and cash conversion (TTM net margin ~25%, FCF ~0.99x net income) and an improved leverage profile (TTM debt-to-equity ~0.42). The main drag is weakening recent momentum, with TTM revenue down ~19.9% and TTM free cash flow down ~27.9%, alongside lower ROE (~16.5% vs prior peaks).

Income Statement

Profitability remains a clear strength, with strong TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) margins (gross profit ~61%, EBIT ~40%, net income ~25%). However, the top-line trajectory is the main weak spot: revenue declined ~19.9% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) versus modest growth in 2024, and net margin also stepped down versus 2024 (about 32% to ~25%), signaling weaker operating momentum despite still-solid earnings power.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows improved flexibility in the most recent period, with a lower leverage profile versus prior years (debt-to-equity ~0.42 in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) vs ~0.86–1.21 historically) and equity building to ~$2.4B. Returns on equity remain healthy (~16.5% TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months)), though below the ~20–30% levels achieved in earlier years, implying reduced efficiency or a heavier equity base relative to earnings.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is solid and high-quality: free cash flow is essentially in line with net income in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) (roughly 0.99x), suggesting earnings are converting well into cash. The key weakness is trend: free cash flow declined ~27.9% in TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) after being roughly flat-to-slightly up in 2024, consistent with the softer revenue and profitability backdrop.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.31B	893.48M	821.03M	854.80M	890.26M
Gross Profit	0.00	529.77M	455.97M	455.50M	479.05M
EBITDA	526.47M	481.37M	394.32M	440.14M	391.80M
Net Income	546.58M	288.86M	213.16M	275.51M	278.39M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	4.25B	2.55B	2.54B	2.54B	2.58B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	163.69M	126.73M	123.55M	38.17M	69.53M
Total Debt	970.01M	963.86M	989.27M	985.51M	1.13B
Total Liabilities	1.82B	1.43B	1.49B	1.48B	1.65B
Stockholders Equity	2.42B	1.12B	1.05B	1.07B	929.93M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	236.85M	338.70M	325.12M	329.97M	363.52M
Operating Cash Flow	240.41M	339.98M	330.29M	335.21M	376.20M
Investing Cash Flow	77.66M	-3.98M	-7.84M	-6.32M	-556.59M
Financing Cash Flow	-329.45M	-332.76M	-237.13M	-360.19M	227.22M

Victory Capital Holdings Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 76.25
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For VCTR, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 76.25 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 70.05, above the 50-day MA of 66.53, and above the 200-day MA of 64.98, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.28 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.65 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.14 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for VCTR.

Victory Capital Holdings Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
VCTR	75 Outperform	$4.95B	18.69	18.61%	3.00%	33.03%	-3.55%
APAM	75 Outperform	$3.57B	10.93	62.62%	8.72%	5.46%	2.10%
AMG	74 Outperform	$8.67B	18.81	15.95%	0.01%	1.08%	8.24%
FHI	74 Outperform	$4.18B	10.50	34.09%	2.46%	9.32%	53.51%
AB	73 Outperform	$3.67B	13.58	―	8.93%	―	-12.92%
Sector *	68 Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
CNS	63 Neutral	$3.31B	21.83	31.53%	3.92%	12.73%	19.01%

Victory Capital Holdings Corporate Events

Victory Capital Reports Growth in Assets Under Management

On February 11, 2026, Victory Capital Holdings reported that total assets under management rose to $320.2 billion and total client assets reached $323.2 billion as of January 31, 2026. Average total AUM for January was $318.3 billion, indicating a solid asset base at the start of the year.

Long-term assets increased to $316.4 billion from $310.0 billion at December 31, 2025, driven by higher balances in solutions, U.S. equity, and global/non-U.S. equity strategies. Client assets were predominantly U.S.-based at $266.8 billion, while mutual funds remained the largest vehicle at $175.0 billion, underscoring Victory Capital’s scale and diversified product footprint across channels and regions.

Money market and short-term assets were broadly stable at $3.8 billion, and other institutional assets totaled $3.0 billion, bringing total client assets to $323.2 billion compared with $316.6 billion a month earlier. The month-over-month increase across vehicles including mutual funds, separate accounts, pooled vehicles, and ETFs highlights continued traction in Victory Capital’s multi-channel distribution platform.

The most recent analyst rating on (VCTR) stock is a Buy with a $84.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Victory Capital Holdings stock, see the VCTR Stock Forecast page.

Victory Capital Reports Stable AUM Amid Q4 Client Outflows

On January 13, 2026, Victory Capital reported that as of December 31, 2025, it managed $313.8 billion in total assets under management and $2.8 billion in other assets, for total client assets of $316.6 billion, with U.S. client assets accounting for the majority. Average total AUM for December was $314.5 billion, while fourth-quarter long-term AUM net flows were negative $2.1 billion, indicating client outflows despite broadly stable asset levels across solutions, fixed income, equity, and alternative strategies; the company also set February 5, 2026, as the date for its conference call to discuss fourth-quarter 2025 financial results, signaling forthcoming detail on how these flows and asset trends may affect earnings and stakeholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (VCTR) stock is a Buy with a $78.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Victory Capital Holdings stock, see the VCTR Stock Forecast page.

Victory Capital Reports Growth in November 2025 Assets

On December 10, 2025, Victory Capital Holdings reported its assets under management as of November 30, 2025, totaling $314.8 billion, with total client assets reaching $317.7 billion. This announcement reflects a slight increase in assets from the previous month, indicating steady growth and a strong market position for Victory Capital, which could positively impact stakeholders by demonstrating the firm’s ongoing financial health and stability.

The most recent analyst rating on (VCTR) stock is a Buy with a $74.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Victory Capital Holdings stock, see the VCTR Stock Forecast page.