tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
Affiliated Managers Group (AMG)
NYSE:AMG

Affiliated Managers (AMG) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
480 Followers

Top Page

AMG

Affiliated Managers

(NYSE:AMG)

Select Model
Select Model
Select Model
Outperform 72 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
$347.00
▲(13.33% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/27/26
The score is driven by strong earnings-call momentum and supportive technicals, reinforced by a reasonable P/E. The main limiter is financial-quality risk from the sharp 2025 cash-flow deterioration despite strong reported profitability, which increases uncertainty and keeps the overall rating from being higher.
Positive Factors
Alternatives-led AUM expansion
A 35% increase in alternative AUM and alternatives providing ~60% of run-rate EBITDA indicate a structural shift toward higher-growth, fee-stable businesses. This rebalances AMG’s revenue base toward less correlation with public markets and supports durable fee-related earnings and fundraising momentum.
Strong profitability and disciplined capital allocation
Consistently high operating and EBITDA margins plus solid ROE reflect durable earnings power and capital efficiency. When paired with >$1B of growth investments and large buybacks, this underwriting of margins supports long-term shareholder returns and reinvestment capacity.
Simplified capital structure and long-dated debt
Issuing long-dated senior notes to redeem convertible preferreds and removing dilution via the conversion premium simplifies capital structure. Lower near-term refinancing risk and defined long-term debt maturities preserve financial flexibility for buybacks and strategic investments.
Negative Factors
2025 cash-flow deterioration
A collapse to zero operating cash flow and slightly negative free cash flow in 2025 breaks prior strong cash conversion trends. This undermines reliability of reported profits, raises funding risk for buybacks/growth, and suggests potential working-capital or one-off pressures requiring monitoring.
Affiliate concentration risk
Reliance on a few affiliates for a large share of AUM and >20% of earnings concentrates operational and performance risk. Affiliate-specific underperformance, outflows, or regulatory/strategy shifts could disproportionately impair AMG’s earnings and AUM, reducing diversification benefits.
Secular outflows from active equities
Large, persistent outflows in traditional active equities reflect secular investor shifts away from long-only strategies. This erodes AUM diversity, pressures fee-related earnings outside alternatives, and forces AMG to rely more on alternatives to sustain overall growth and profits.

Affiliated Managers (AMG) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Affiliated Managers Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAffiliated Managers Group, Inc., through its affiliates, operates as an asset management company providing investment management services to mutual funds, institutional clients, and high net worth individuals in the United States. It provides advisory or subadvisory services to mutual funds. These funds are distributed to retail and institutional clients directly and through intermediaries, including independent investment advisors, retirement plan sponsors, broker-dealers, major fund marketplaces, and bank trust departments. The company also offers investment products in various investment styles in the institutional distribution channel, including small, small/mid, mid, and large capitalization value and growth equity, and emerging markets. In addition, it offers quantitative, alternative, and fixed income products, and manages assets for foundations and endowments, defined benefit, and defined contribution plans for corporations and municipalities. Affiliated Managers Group provides investment management or customized investment counseling and fiduciary services. Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. was formed in 1993 and is based in West Palm Beach, Florida with additional offices in Prides Crossing, Massachusetts; Stamford, Connecticut; London, United Kingdom; Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Sydney, Australia; Hong Kong; Tokyo, Japan, Zurich, Switzerland and Delaware.
How the Company Makes MoneyAMG generates revenue primarily through its equity ownership in affiliated investment management firms, which allows it to earn a portion of the management fees and performance fees generated by these affiliates. The company typically receives a percentage of the earnings based on the assets under management (AUM) by its affiliates. Additionally, AMG may earn revenues from strategic partnerships and by providing support services to its affiliates, such as distribution, marketing, and operational resources. The performance of the affiliated firms and the overall market conditions significantly influence AMG's earnings, making its revenue model closely tied to the success of its investment strategies and the growth of its AUM.

Affiliated Managers Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial performance driven by a strategic pivot into alternatives: record or near-record metrics (economic EPS, adjusted EBITDA growth, large alternative inflows, and strong fundraising) and disciplined capital allocation (>$1B invested, $700M repurchases). These positives offset notable challenges including substantial equity outflows, concentration risk in a few large affiliates, variability in performance fees, and one-time costs to simplify the capital structure, plus a leadership transition. On balance, the momentum in alternatives, shareholder returns, and earnings growth dominate the narrative.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Economic Earnings Per Share and Strong EPS Growth
Full-year economic earnings per share of $26.05 (CFO disclosure) and fourth-quarter economic EPS of $9.48; economic EPS grew ~22% year-over-year for the full year and ~45% year-over-year in Q4, driven by organic growth and share repurchases.
Robust Net Client Flows and Alternatives Momentum
Affiliates generated ~$29.0B in annual net client cash flows (highest since 2013) with full-year organic growth of ~4%; Q4 net inflows were ~$12.0B (annualized organic growth ~6% for the quarter). Alternatives delivered a record year: $74.0B of net inflows in 2025, Q4 alternatives inflows ~$23.0B, liquid alternatives Q4 inflows ~$15.0B and full-year liquid alternatives inflows $51.0B (36% annualized organic growth). Private markets fundraising was $9.0B in Q4 and $24.0B for the year (18% annualized organic growth).
Large Expansion in Alternative AUM and Shift in Business Mix
Added approximately $97.0B of alternative AUM in 2025 (a ~35% increase in total alternative AUM for the year), bringing affiliates' alternative AUM to ~$373.0B. Alternatives now contribute roughly 60% of run-rate EBITDA, reflecting a strategic pivot toward higher-growth alternatives.
Adjusted EBITDA and Fee-Related Earnings Growth
Q4 adjusted EBITDA of $378.0M, up 34% year-over-year (included $125.0M of net performance fees); full-year adjusted EBITDA of $1.1B, up 11% versus 2024 (included $161.0M of net performance fees). Fee-related earnings (ex-performance fees) grew ~20% year-over-year for the quarter and ~8% for the full year.
Disciplined Capital Allocation and Shareholder Returns
Committed >$1.0B to growth investments in 2025 and repurchased approximately $700.0M of shares (~11% of shares outstanding) during the year (including a record $350.0M repurchase in Q4). Received proceeds from affiliate liquidity events that supported further deployment (~$570.0M aggregate pretax proceeds cited by CFO). Company expects to repurchase at least $400.0M in 2026 (subject to conditions).
Strengthened Balance Sheet and Capital Structure Actions
Completed a $425.0M ten-year senior note issuance at a 5.5% coupon and used proceeds to settle convertible trust preferred securities; removed share-count dilution from capital structure. Management describes low leverage, long-dated debt, and access to revolver as supportive of continued capital deployment.
Meaningful Wealth Distribution Gains
Alternatives AUM on AMG's U.S. wealth platform reached ~$8.0B in 2025 with $2.2B of alternative net new flows in the year. Global wealth AUM across AMG and affiliates exceeded $100.0B and grew organically >100% in 2025, highlighting progress in the wealth channel opportunity.
Negative Updates
Significant Outflows in Active Equities
Active equities experienced meaningful redemptions: approximately $12.0B of net outflows in Q4 and ~$45.0B of net outflows for the full year 2025, reflecting industry headwinds for long-only equity strategies.
Concentration Risk Among Top Affiliates
Two large affiliates (AQR and Pantheon) represent a sizable portion of the business (mentioned as ~30%+ of AUM and >30% of adjusted EBITDA run-rate). Management expects AQR to contribute north of 20% of earnings in 2026, indicating increased reliance on a small number of affiliates for growth and earnings.
Performance Fee Variability and Modest Near-Term Guidance
Net performance fees were $161.0M for the full year 2025; management guided to ~$170.0M of net performance fee earnings for 2026 (in line with the five-year average), underscoring the variable and lumpy nature of performance-fee income despite structural growth in carry-eligible AUM.
One-Time Cost to Simplify Capital Structure
The refinancing/settlement of trust-preferred securities had a total cost cited at $516.0M (CFO disclosure), including a $174.0M conversion premium that effectively repurchased ~600,000 adjusted diluted shares — a near-term cash outlay that reduced dilution but increased 2025/early-2026 cash costs.
Leadership Transition Risk
Thomas M. Wojcik (President & COO / long-tenured CFO) announced departure to pursue other opportunities; management noted confidence in depth of team but the change introduces transitional risk during an active growth phase.
Flat Performance in Some Asset Classes
Multi-asset and fixed income net flows were effectively flat for both the quarter and the full year, indicating that growth was concentrated in alternatives while other traditional segments underperformed or stalled.
Company Guidance
For Q1 2026 the company guided adjusted EBITDA of $310 million to $330 million (based on current AUM and a market blend up 3% QTD as of Feb. 11), which includes $40 million to $60 million of net performance fees and implies economic earnings per share of $7.98 to $8.52 assuming an adjusted weighted‑average share count of 27.4 million; management also provided Q1 fee‑related earnings of $270 million (adjusted EBITDA less net performance fees), which represents ~30% quarterly fee‑related earnings growth versus Q1 2025. Looking to full‑year 2026, AMG expects net performance fee earnings of approximately $170 million (in line with its 2021–2025 five‑year average), expects AQR to contribute north of 20% of earnings, and said two recently announced transactions (including the Highbrook/Garda activity) should add about $20 million of adjusted EBITDA on a full‑year basis (with a portion in Q1). Capital actions driving near‑term EPS upside include $175 million of committed, immediately accretive growth investments, a $174 million conversion premium (which removed ~600,000 adjusted diluted shares at $293 and simplifies the capital structure), a Q1 share count guidance of 27.4 million, and an announced plan to repurchase at least $400 million of shares in 2026 (beyond the conversion premium).

Affiliated Managers Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Profitability and returns are strong (high operating/EBITDA margins and generally strong ROE) with moderate leverage, but the 2025 cash-flow breakdown (operating cash flow at $0 and slightly negative free cash flow) is a material reliability risk that drags the overall financial profile despite the earnings rebound.
Income Statement
78
Positive
AMG shows strong profitability with consistently high operating and EBITDA margins across the period, and net margin generally healthy (roughly 10% to ~49%). Revenue growth has been uneven—declines in 2022–2024 followed by a strong rebound in 2025 (+19.8%)—suggesting earnings power is solid but top-line visibility can be cyclical. Net income improved in 2024–2025 versus 2021/2024, though it remains below the 2022 peak, indicating some volatility in bottom-line performance.
Balance Sheet
71
Positive
Leverage is moderate for the group, with debt-to-equity mostly in the ~0.71–0.89 range, and equity staying sizeable relative to assets. Returns on equity have generally been strong (low-teens to mid-30% range), reflecting good capital efficiency, though they fluctuate meaningfully year to year. Total debt has trended up since 2020, while equity has not grown as consistently, which modestly increases balance-sheet risk if markets weaken.
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
Cash generation was very strong and well-supported by profits from 2020–2024, with operating cash flow consistently exceeding net income and free cash flow closely tracking net income in those years. However, 2025 is a major red flag: operating cash flow reported at $0 and free cash flow turned slightly negative (-$6.1M) after strong positive free cash flow in prior years, driving a sharp deterioration in cash conversion and raising questions about sustainability and/or one-time working-capital or reporting effects.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue2.45B2.04B2.06B2.33B2.41B
Gross Profit2.10B1.13B1.15B1.26B1.37B
EBITDA1.49B1.10B1.28B1.93B1.30B
Net Income716.60M511.60M672.90M1.15B565.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.21B8.83B9.06B8.88B8.88B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments586.00M1.01B1.27B1.15B987.00M
Total Debt2.69B2.62B2.54B2.54B2.49B
Total Liabilities4.79B4.18B4.10B4.24B4.49B
Stockholders Equity3.24B3.35B3.59B3.23B2.79B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.00B928.70M861.90M1.04B1.25B
Operating Cash Flow1.01B932.10M874.30M1.05B1.26B
Investing Cash Flow-243.80M379.10M264.50M-109.90M-583.70M
Financing Cash Flow-1.15B-1.18B-758.30M-1.40B-798.30M

Affiliated Managers Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price306.18
Price Trends
50DMA
306.23
Negative
100DMA
280.05
Positive
200DMA
244.21
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.06
Positive
RSI
48.31
Neutral
STOCH
56.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For AMG, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 306.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 311.00, below the 50-day MA of 306.23, and above the 200-day MA of 244.21, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.06 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.31 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for AMG.

Affiliated Managers Risk Analysis

Affiliated Managers disclosed 23 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Affiliated Managers reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Affiliated Managers Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$8.03B9.9716.45%3.34%14.48%34.97%
73
Outperform
$5.85B18.8330.59%1.52%13.01%21.96%
72
Outperform
$8.17B13.4721.77%0.01%1.08%8.24%
68
Neutral
$18.00B11.429.92%3.81%9.73%1.22%
66
Neutral
$35.85B13.6811.07%2.43%5.62%49.49%
65
Neutral
$139.31B29.3035.78%3.02%33.12%19.86%
51
Neutral
$5.14B-6.212.17%92.02%-1386.34%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
AMG
Affiliated Managers
306.18
138.86
82.99%
STT
State Street
128.62
34.46
36.60%
BX
Blackstone Group
113.37
-39.94
-26.05%
HLNE
Hamilton Lane
104.94
-45.36
-30.18%
JHG
Janus Henderson Group
52.10
12.02
29.99%
STEP
StepStone Group
43.14
-14.09
-24.62%

Affiliated Managers Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
Affiliated Managers Announces Board Changes and Leadership Consolidation
Positive
Feb 26, 2026

On February 26, 2026, Affiliated Managers Group announced that veteran investor G. Staley Cates will join its board as an independent director effective April 1, 2026, bringing four decades of experience from Southeastern Asset Management and a long record of civic and educational leadership in Memphis. Cates will receive standard director compensation and indemnification, with the company noting no related-party ties or arrangements underpinning his appointment.

The firm also disclosed that director Karen L. Alvingham, who has served on AMG’s board since January 2018, will retire effective April 1, 2026, after contributing during what the chair described as a pivotal period of growth and evolution for the company. In a parallel leadership move announced the same day, AMG reappointed CEO Jay C. Horgen as president effective April 1, 2026, consolidating his executive roles and signaling continuity in the firm’s strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMG) stock is a Buy with a $457.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Affiliated Managers stock, see the AMG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Affiliated Managers Reports Strong 2025 Results, Boosts Capital Returns
Positive
Feb 12, 2026

On February 12, 2026, AMG reported that 2025 was among its strongest years, with diluted EPS of $22.74, Economic EPS of $26.05, net income of $717 million, and approximately $29 billion of net client inflows, lifting year-end assets under management to $813.3 billion. The board also declared a quarterly dividend of $0.01 per share payable March 9, 2026, and expanded its non-expiring share repurchase capacity to about 6 million shares after buying back $700 million of stock in 2025, underscoring management’s confidence in the firm’s shift toward high-growth alternative strategies and disciplined capital allocation.

The company highlighted that net inflows and earnings growth were driven by strong demand for its affiliates’ private markets and liquid alternatives offerings, which saw record fundraising and performance in 2025. AMG committed more than $1 billion across five new growth investments and new or deepened partnerships in private markets and alternative credit, reinforcing its competitive positioning and signaling continued emphasis on alternatives-led expansion and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMG) stock is a Hold with a $341.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Affiliated Managers stock, see the AMG Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
Affiliated Managers Announces Leadership Change and Executive Departure
Neutral
Feb 12, 2026

Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. announced on February 12, 2026, that President and Chief Operating Officer Thomas M. Wojcik will step down from his roles effective March 6, 2026, with his responsibilities to be redistributed among other senior leaders. The company has agreed to pay Wojcik $5,025,000 in 2026 for his services through the departure date and an additional $11,050,000 in early 2027 contingent on his continued compliance with non-compete and related obligations, while cancelling all unvested equity awards and excluding him from incentive compensation for 2025 and 2026, signaling a structured but definitive leadership transition and reshaping of his compensation profile.

The departure of Wojcik as president and COO will see his responsibilities distributed among other senior executives, avoiding a direct one-for-one replacement. His exit package ties significant cash payments to continued cooperation, including non-competition and non-solicitation commitments through early 2027.

Wojcik will forgo long-term and short-term incentive compensation for 2025 and 2026, with all unvested equity awards cancelled on the March 6, 2026 departure date. This structure emphasizes cash-based severance and post-employment restrictions, while limiting ongoing equity exposure and performance-based pay linked to his former role.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMG) stock is a Hold with a $341.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Affiliated Managers stock, see the AMG Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Affiliated Managers Completes $425M Senior Notes Issuance
Neutral
Dec 11, 2025

On December 11, 2025, Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. completed the issuance and sale of $425 million in 5.500% Senior Notes due 2036. These notes, which are unsecured and unsubordinated, will mature on February 15, 2036, and the company plans to use the proceeds to redeem its 5.15% Convertible Trust Preferred Securities due 2037 and for general corporate purposes. The issuance is expected to impact the company’s financial operations by refinancing existing obligations and potentially improving its capital structure.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMG) stock is a Buy with a $395.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Affiliated Managers stock, see the AMG Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Affiliated Managers Announces Redemption of Preferred Securities
Neutral
Dec 8, 2025

On December 8, 2025, Affiliated Managers Group, Inc. announced its plan to redeem all outstanding 5.15% Convertible Trust Preferred Securities due 2037 of AMG Capital Trust II on December 29, 2025. This redemption aims to simplify the company’s capital structure by using proceeds from a previously announced senior notes offering, although the redemption is not contingent on the offering’s completion.

The most recent analyst rating on (AMG) stock is a Buy with a $309.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Affiliated Managers stock, see the AMG Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 27, 2026