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Tower Semiconductor (TSEM)
NASDAQ:TSEM

Tower (TSEM) AI Stock Analysis

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TSEM

Tower

(NASDAQ:TSEM)

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Outperform 73 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:73Outperform
Price Target:
$123.00
â–¼(-1.37% Downside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/13/26
The score is driven mainly by solid financial strength (notably the strong balance sheet) and supportive technical trend, reinforced by an upbeat earnings call focused on a funded, customer-supported SiPho/SiGe capacity ramp. These positives are tempered by premium valuation (high P/E) and the recent dip into negative free cash flow, plus execution/contract risks highlighted on the call.
Positive Factors
Strong Balance Sheet
Tower’s very low leverage and materially expanded equity provide durable financial flexibility to fund large manufacturing investments and absorb cyclical downturns. A strong balance sheet reduces refinancing risk, supports customer prepayments and gives capacity to pursue strategic ramps without immediate external funding.
Funded SiPho/SiGe Capacity Build
A largely funded $920M expansion with most SiPho capacity pre‑reserved materially de‑risks the growth plan: it bolsters revenue visibility, accelerates scale economies, and supports the company’s target margin uplift if tool qualifications and customer ramps proceed as planned, making growth less dependent on spot demand.
Strategic AI/Optics Partnerships
Collaborations with NVIDIA and other photonics partners validate Tower’s technology for hyperscale AI networking and create durable addressable demand. Such partnerships facilitate roadmap alignment, customer lock‑in, and a path to high‑volume production that supports sustained revenue growth in data‑center and telecom markets.
Negative Factors
Negative Free Cash Flow
Despite strong operating cash flow, negative free cash flow in 2025 indicates heavy investment and short-term cash strain. Persistent negative FCF while funding large capex ramps could reduce optionality, increase reliance on customer prepayments or the balance sheet, and heighten funding risk if ramps or payments slip.
Ramp Execution & Contract Risk
The company’s growth depends on timely qualification of multiple tools and fabs; supplier or startup delays can push revenue and margin expansion out by quarters. Additionally, the Intel Fab 11X dispute creates contract uncertainty and potential volume loss, increasing concentration and execution risk over the medium term.
Legacy Segment Declines & Margin Volatility
Declines in mobile and legacy mixed‑signal/discrete products reduce revenue diversification and contribute to margin normalization from 2022 peaks. The business must replace legacy volume with higher‑value photonics/SiGe at scale; until then, earnings and margins remain sensitive to product mix shifts and demand variability.

Tower (TSEM) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Tower Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTower Semiconductor Ltd., an independent semiconductor foundry, manufactures and markets analog intensive mixed-signal semiconductor devices in the United States, Japan, other Asia countries, and Europe. It provides various customizable process technologies, including SiGe, BiCMOS, mixed signal/CMOS, RF CMOS, CMOS image sensor, integrated power management, and MEMS. The company also offers wafer fabrication services and design enablement platform for design cycle, as well as transfer optimization and development process services to integrated device manufacturers and fabless companies. It serves various markets, such as consumer electronics, personal computers, communications, automotive, industrial, aerospace, military, and medical device products. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Migdal Haemek, Israel.
How the Company Makes MoneyTower Semiconductor generates revenue primarily through its foundry services, where it manufactures semiconductor products for third-party customers. The company operates on a business model that includes long-term contracts and agreements with major clients in various industries, which provide a steady stream of income. Key revenue streams include fees for manufacturing services, design services, and licensing of its proprietary technologies. Additionally, Tower benefits from strategic partnerships with leading technology companies, which enhance its market reach and capability to innovate, thereby contributing to its earnings. The company also participates in joint ventures and collaborations that enable it to expand its technology portfolio and access new markets.

Tower Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call highlighted strong top-line and bottom-line momentum driven by rapid silicon photonics and silicon germanium growth, meaningful margin expansion in Q4, a well-capitalized balance sheet, and a funded $920M CapEx plan with most new SiPho capacity pre-reserved. Offsetting risks include declines in some legacy segments, contractual uncertainty with Intel Fab 11X, reliance on timely tool/fab qualifications (supplier/startup risk), and external market risks such as memory supply; however, management emphasized customer commitments, high reservation levels, and a clear ramp plan. Overall, the positives—strong current results, dominant SiPho position, funded capacity build-out and an ambitious but well-articulated long-term model—materially outweigh the operational and market execution risks discussed on the call.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Q4 and Full-Year Revenue Growth
Q4 2025 revenue $440M, +11% quarter-over-quarter and +14% year-over-year; FY2025 revenue ~$1.57B, +9% vs 2024.
Significant Profitability Improvement
Q4 2025 net profit $80M (18% net margin), up 49% sequentially from $54M; Q4 gross profit $118M (+26% QoQ) and operating profit $71M (+40% QoQ). FY2025 net profit $220M and EPS $1.97 (basic).
Silicon Photonics (SiPho) Rapid Expansion
SiPho revenue $228M in 2025 (up from $106M in 2024, ~+115% YoY); Q4 SiPho $95M (implied $380M annual run rate); company targeting >5x SiPho capacity vs Q4 monthly wafer shipments and reports >70% of new SiPho capacity reserved or being reserved through 2028 (many with customer prepayment).
Silicon Germanium (SiGe) and RF Infrastructure Growth
Combined SiGe + SiPho represented ~$421M (27% of corporate revenue) in 2025; SiGe grew ~43% YoY. RF infrastructure revenue increased 75% YoY and accounted for 32% of Q4 revenue.
Aggressive, Funded Capacity Build-Out (CapEx)
Announced incremental $270M CapEx on top of prior $650M for a total $920M investment (28% already paid) to expand 8-inch and 12-inch fabs for SiPho/SiGe; management expects tool qualification and customer starts through 2026 with full model target by 2028.
Improved Utilization Across Key Fabs
Reported utilization: Fab3 ~85% (model level), Fab7 fully utilized (>85%), Fab5 75%, Fab9 65%, Fab2 ~60% as SiGe/SiPho qualification continues—multiple fabs already running SiGe/SiPho flows.
Updated Financial Target Model
New target model: $2.84B revenue, ~39–40% gross margin, 31.7% operating margin, $750M net profit (26.4% net margin) targeted to be achieved by calendar 2028 (model excludes Intel Fab 11X).
Strong Balance Sheet and Liquidity
Total assets >$3B, fixed assets ~$1.5B, current assets ~$1.7B, shareholders' equity ~$2.9B, and strong current asset ratio (~6.5x); $105M lease prepayment for Newport Beach recorded as asset.
Negative Updates
Segment Declines (Mobile/Legacy Products)
RF mobile was down 15% YoY; mixed-signal CMOS revenue decreased ~18% YoY and Discrete decreased ~14% YoY as management proactively reallocated lower-margin products to higher-value optical/RF mix.
Concentration and Execution Risks Around Ramp
Large dependence on successful and timely qualification of many new tools and fabs for the SiPho/SiGe ramp; management acknowledged potential supplier/tool shipment or startup delays that could push starts by months and affect near-term revenue timing.
Intel Fab 11X Agreement Disruption
Intel has expressed intention not to perform under the September 2023 Fab 11X agreement; Tower is in mediation and redirecting flows to Fab7 (Japan), creating execution and contractual uncertainty.
One-Time Accounting and Tax Items
Q4 benefited from a nonrecurring tax benefit (~$10M), producing a very low reported effective tax rate (~2%) for the quarter; management estimates an all-in tax rate of at least ~15% going forward (Pillar 2).
External Market Risks (Memory Supply & Pricing)
Management cited potential impacts from memory shortages and price increases that could affect handset unit volumes and demand for certain mobile-related products, introducing external demand risk.
Ambitious Financial Model vs Near-Term Uncertainties
Updated 2028 model implies ~81% revenue increase vs FY2025 and very steep margin expansion (net profit tripling to $750M); realization depends on sustained customer demand, successful capacity qualification, and absence of material supply-chain disruptions.
Company Guidance
Tower guided Q1 2026 midrange revenue of $412 million ±5% (about +15% vs. the start of 2025) and expects quarter‑over‑quarter revenue and profitability growth through 2026; it announced an incremental $270 million of CapEx for a total $920 million investment (28% paid, 72% to be paid in 2026–27) to expand SiPho/SiGe capacity targeted to >5x Q4 silicon‑photonics monthly wafer shipments (vs. prior 3x target) with >70% of SiPho capacity reserved/prepaid through 2028, plans to complete tool and customer qualifications in 2026 with full wafer‑start capability by year‑end, and presented an updated target model (assuming Tower‑owned capacity at 85% utilization and no additional CapEx) of $2.84 billion revenue, ~$1.12 billion gross profit (~39.4% gross margin), $900 million operating profit (~31.7% operating margin) and $750 million net profit (~26.4% net margin) to be achieved by 2028 (an ~81% revenue increase and more than triple 2025 gross/net profit).

Tower Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are solid but uneven: a very strong, low-leverage balance sheet supports resilience, while profitability is healthy but has cooled from the 2023 peak. The main detractor is cash-flow quality in 2025, with free cash flow turning negative despite strong operating cash flow.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Revenue has grown from $1.27B (2020) to $1.57B (2025), with modest growth in 2025 (3.5%) after being nearly flat in 2024. Profitability is generally solid (2025 gross margin ~23% and net margin ~14%), but margins are down from 2022 levels and earnings power looks volatile given the unusually high 2023 profitability (net margin ~36%) that did not sustain into 2024–2025. Overall: healthy profitability with uneven trajectory and some margin compression.
Balance Sheet
86
Very Positive
The balance sheet is a clear strength: leverage is low and improving (debt-to-equity ~0.27 in 2020 down to ~0.06 in 2025), while equity has expanded meaningfully (to ~$2.90B in 2025). Returns on equity are positive but have normalized sharply from 2023’s spike (~21%) to mid/high-single digits in 2024–2025 (~8% to ~7.6%), suggesting less efficient capital returns recently despite the strong capital structure.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Operating cash flow remains consistently strong (about $395M in 2025; generally $400M–$675M over 2021–2024) and continues to exceed net income (about 1.5x in 2025), supporting earnings quality. The weakness is free cash flow volatility: positive in 2021–2024 but turned negative in 2025 (about -$41M), indicating heavier investment or working-capital pressure and reducing near-term financial flexibility.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.57B1.44B1.42B1.68B1.51B
Gross Profit363.85M339.44M353.52M466.31M329.12M
EBITDA497.28M451.32M847.31M590.30M433.12M
Net Income220.47M207.86M518.49M264.57M150.01M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.32B3.08B2.92B2.55B2.23B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments1.15B1.22B1.24B1.01B763.87M
Total Debt161.52M180.81M231.56M272.34M314.84M
Total Liabilities417.71M440.31M491.48M659.07M615.85M
Stockholders Equity2.90B2.65B2.43B1.89B1.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-41.08M12.53M232.06M163.42M107.48M
Operating Cash Flow395.48M448.68M676.56M529.82M421.29M
Investing Cash Flow-398.09M-400.24M-720.85M-329.45M-338.94M
Financing Cash Flow-33.35M-32.45M-30.41M-66.65M-76.86M

Tower Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price124.71
Price Trends
50DMA
126.97
Negative
100DMA
114.37
Positive
200DMA
84.16
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-2.56
Positive
RSI
50.35
Neutral
STOCH
45.52
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSEM, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 124.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 124.05, below the 50-day MA of 126.97, and above the 200-day MA of 84.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.56 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.35 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.52 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSEM.

Tower Risk Analysis

Tower disclosed 43 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tower reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Tower Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
$13.62B38.1422.70%―39.37%40.87%
73
Outperform
$13.94B60.537.85%―8.03%-6.03%
70
Outperform
$4.43B22.9414.07%1.52%-0.58%-6.67%
69
Neutral
$7.85B-541.205.12%―20.60%―
68
Neutral
$10.63B26.108.73%0.81%0.13%-16.17%
67
Neutral
$8.58B-205.54-4.23%―59.04%28.50%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSEM
Tower
124.71
85.67
219.44%
AMKR
Amkor
42.99
23.63
122.06%
NVMI
Nova
428.60
222.33
107.79%
SMTC
Semtech
84.85
45.42
115.19%
OLED
Universal Display
94.07
-60.86
-39.28%
SITM
SiTime Corporation
326.13
155.67
91.32%

Tower Corporate Events

Tower Semiconductor to Showcase Silicon Photonics Platform at OFC 2026
Mar 4, 2026

On March 4, 2026, Tower Semiconductor announced it will participate in OFC 2026, the Optical Fiber Communication Conference and Exhibition, to be held March 17–19, 2026 at the Los Angeles Convention Center, where it will be present at booth #2221. Company representatives will be available throughout the event to discuss its current and future silicon photonics roadmap with customers and partners.

At OFC 2026, Tower plans to showcase its silicon photonics platform, used by industry leaders for optical transceivers in scale-out and telecom networks as well as emerging applications such as co-packaged optics, DWDM lasers, optical circuit switching, FMCW LiDARs for physical AI, and quantum computing. The company will also highlight its silicon germanium BiCMOS offerings and stage several joint demonstrations with partners, underlining its bid to meet growing bandwidth, latency and power demands in next-generation AI infrastructure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $45000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor Files 2025 Audited Results and Highlights Tax Complexity in Global Operations
Mar 2, 2026

On March 2, 2026, Tower Semiconductor filed a Form 6-K furnishing its audited consolidated financial statements for the year ended December 31, 2025, along with management’s discussion and analysis and the external auditor’s consent. The filing, which is incorporated by reference into existing share-based compensation registration statements, confirms a clean audit opinion under U.S. GAAP and highlights income tax provisioning in its multinational structure as the key critical audit matter, underscoring the complexity of its global operations and tax risk management for investors and regulators.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $45000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor, Salience Labs Move AI Data-Center Optical Switches Into Pre-Production
Feb 25, 2026

On February 25, 2026, Tower Semiconductor and UK-based Salience Labs announced a partnership to manufacture photonic integrated circuit-based optical circuit switches for next-generation AI data centers. The deal uses Tower’s high-volume silicon photonics platforms, including PH18DA with integrated lasers and TPS45PH with low-loss nitride waveguides, moving their joint program from development into a pre-production phase.

By shifting more connectivity and switching into the optical domain, the partners aim to address rising demand for higher bandwidth, lower latency and lower energy per bit in AI back-end networks, a market forecast by Dell’Oro Group to exceed $100 billion in data center switch spending by 2030. The collaboration strengthens Tower’s positioning in AI and data-center infrastructure while giving Salience Labs a scalable manufacturing path, potentially accelerating industrial deployment of optical circuit switching architectures.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $45000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor Deepens Xanadu Partnership to Scale Photonic Quantum Hardware
Feb 19, 2026

On February 19, 2026, Tower Semiconductor and Canadian photonic quantum computing firm Xanadu announced an expansion of their strategic collaboration to develop advanced silicon photonics for fault-tolerant quantum computers. The companies have co-engineered a custom material stack integrated into Tower’s high-volume silicon photonics platform, aiming to support scalable, high-performance photonic quantum hardware as system complexity increases.

The strengthened partnership builds on a series of successful joint tapeouts that moved Xanadu’s hardware from concept to prototype and demonstrator systems within a manufacturable foundry environment. Current work focuses on optimizing ultra‑low‑loss silicon nitride and integrated photodiodes using standard product flows, positioning Tower’s platform to serve emerging commercial-scale quantum computing while reinforcing its relevance across data centers, telecom and automotive applications.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $45000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor, Scintil Unveil First Heterogeneously Integrated DWDM Lasers for AI Infrastructure
Feb 17, 2026

On February 17, 2026, Tower Semiconductor and Scintil Photonics announced the availability of the world’s first heterogeneously integrated dense wavelength division multiplexing laser sources for AI infrastructure, built on Scintil’s SHIP technology and Tower’s high-volume silicon photonics platform. The LEAF Light laser source, validated on Tower’s production lines, targets next-generation co-packaged optics for hyperscale AI data centers by delivering higher bandwidth density, lower power per bit, ultra-low tail latency, and a defined path from customer evaluation to high-volume manufacturing, strengthening both companies’ positioning in scale-up AI networking.

Tower’s global multi-site silicon photonics footprint is presented as a key differentiator for capacity flexibility and supply continuity, aligning with hyperscaler requirements as AI networking is projected to grow toward a large optical-centric market by 2030. The partnership reinforces Tower’s PH18M silicon photonics offering and Scintil’s role in DWDM laser innovation, positioning them to capture demand from multirack co-packaged optics deployments as AI data center build-outs accelerate and operators seek more efficient, scalable networking architectures.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $45000.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor Partners with NVIDIA on 1.6T Silicon Photonics for AI Data Centers
Feb 5, 2026

On February 5, 2026, Tower Semiconductor announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to scale AI infrastructure using its advanced silicon photonics platform for 1.6-terabit data center optical modules designed for NVIDIA networking protocols. The new SiPho-based solution is said to double data rates versus prior silicon photonics generations, boosting bandwidth and throughput for optical connectivity and accelerating AI workloads in data centers, reinforcing Tower’s positioning as a key foundry partner for high-speed optical interconnects in AI infrastructure, data center networking and advanced telecom markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $152.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor to Join Susquehanna 15th Annual Technology Conference in New York
Jan 29, 2026

On January 29, 2026, Tower Semiconductor announced that company representatives will attend the Susquehanna 15th Annual Technology Conference, scheduled for February 26 at the Lotte New York Palace Hotel in New York. The event will include one-on-one meeting opportunities with investors, underscoring Tower’s ongoing outreach to the investment community and its efforts to reinforce visibility and engagement in the technology and semiconductor capital markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $144.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor Sets February 11 Release for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Jan 20, 2026

On January 20, 2026, Tower Semiconductor announced that it will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results on February 11, 2026, and will host a conference call the same day to discuss those results and provide guidance for the first quarter of 2026. The webcasted call, which will be accessible via the company’s investor relations website with pre-registration required for dial-in participation and a 90-day replay period, underscores the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and other stakeholders ahead of an important earnings update that may shed light on its recent performance and near-term outlook in key analog semiconductor markets.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $147.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor, LightIC Forge Silicon Photonics LiDAR Collaboration for Automotive and Physical AI
Jan 5, 2026

On January 5, 2026, Tower Semiconductor announced a strategic collaboration with LightIC Technologies to use Tower’s mature silicon photonics foundry platform to manufacture LightIC’s silicon photonics–based FMCW LiDAR products, including the Lark long-range automotive LiDAR and FR60 compact LiDAR for robotics and Physical AI applications. The partnership aims to extend silicon photonics beyond large-scale AI data-center networking into sensing-driven Physical AI and automotive markets, improving size, weight, power and cost while enabling scalable, velocity-aware 4D FMCW LiDAR solutions at a time when the global automotive LiDAR market is forecast to grow rapidly, positioning both companies to benefit from broader LiDAR adoption in automotive, industrial automation, smart infrastructure and robotics.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Hold with a $125.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Tower Semiconductor to Present at 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York
Dec 29, 2025

On December 29, 2025, Tower Semiconductor announced that its representatives will attend the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York, scheduled for January 13–14, offering investors the chance to hold one‑on‑one meetings with the company. The participation underscores Tower’s efforts to engage actively with the investment community and highlight its analog foundry capabilities and global manufacturing footprint to current and prospective shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSEM) stock is a Buy with a $150.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Tower stock, see the TSEM Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 13, 2026