Nova (NVMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $13.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 321.13K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 59.6
• Beta (1Y): 1.96
• Revenue Growth: 39.37%
• EPS Growth: 40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,177
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 2.16
• Shares Outstanding: 30,522,072
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 370,288
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 321,126
• PEG Ratio: 0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.08
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 17.66
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 30.92
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 54.14
• 1Y Price Target: $386.67
• Price Target Upside: -14.86% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $555.00 ▲(22.21% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high, durable margins and solid free cash flow), supported by upbeat guidance and demand signals from the latest earnings call. Offsetting factors are elevated valuation (high P/E), more stretched technical momentum (overbought indicators), and increased leverage that reduces financial flexibility.

Positive Factors

High margins and operating profitability

Sustained premium gross and net margins reflect differentiated metrology technology and pricing power versus peers. High margins provide durable reinvestment capacity for R&D and manufacturing scale, supporting long-term ROE and resilience through semiconductor capex cycles.

Strong free cash flow generation

Consistent positive free cash flow that tracks earnings supports funding of R&D, capital expansion and strategic initiatives without relying solely on equity. Robust FCF enhances balance sheet optionality and the ability to withstand cyclical downturns while pursuing long-term growth investments.

Leadership in advanced nodes and packaging demand

Clear product-market fit in advanced logic, memory and packaging ties Nova to secular AI and advanced-node capex trends. Durable end-market demand for precision metrology underpins multi-year revenue visibility and supports strategic capacity additions and long-tail service revenue.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage reduces financial flexibility

A material jump in leverage constrains balance sheet flexibility, raises interest and refinancing risk, and limits capacity for opportunistic M&A or aggressive capex if industry spending softens. Higher debt amplifies downside in cyclical semiconductor cycles.

Revenue growth volatility

Intermittent revenue swings indicate sensitivity to semiconductor capital spending and timing of customer programs. Persistent volatility complicates long-term planning, can amplify working capital swings, and may pressure margins and cash conversion during downturns.

Margin and expense pressures from mix and investments

Rising operating expenses for R&D and ramp investments, combined with product-mix driven gross margin softness, can erode durable operating leverage. If mix shifts persist, sustained margin compression could reduce free cash flow and slow reinvestment cadence.

Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nova Ltd. designs, develops, produces, and sells process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Israel, Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. Its product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, including lithography, etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. The company serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundries, and memory manufacturers, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Nova generates revenue primarily through the sale of its metrology and inspection systems, as well as related software solutions and services. The company earns income from direct product sales, ongoing maintenance contracts, and software licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the initial sale of hardware equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, follow-up service agreements that provide support and upgrades for existing systems, and software sales that enhance the functionality of their devices. Significant partnerships with major semiconductor companies also contribute to Nova's earnings, as these collaborations often lead to long-term contracts and recurring revenue from clients looking to integrate advanced metrology solutions into their production lines.

Nova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and improving scale with high margins (about 57% gross and ~29% net) and solid free cash flow that broadly tracks earnings. Offsets include a sharp recent increase in leverage (debt-to-equity ~0.75 vs ~0.25 in 2024) and historically variable growth.

Income Statement

NVMI shows strong profitability and improving scale. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up with solid margins (about 57% gross margin and ~29% net margin), and operating profitability remains robust (EBIT margin ~30%). The longer-term trajectory is positive with revenue compounding strongly since 2020 and net margins steadily expanding versus earlier years. The main offset is growth volatility—annual revenue declined in 2023 before rebounding—and the latest TTM revenue growth is moderate versus the prior high-growth years.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is mixed. Returns on equity are healthy (roughly 20%+ in recent periods, including TTM), indicating efficient capital use. However, leverage has increased materially: total debt rose sharply in TTM versus 2024, pushing debt relative to equity to ~0.75 (up from ~0.25 in 2024). While assets and equity have grown over time, the step-up in leverage is the key risk factor and reduces financial flexibility compared with prior years.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong overall, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) free cash flow meaningfully positive and growing, and free cash flow tracking close to net income (around 0.9x), which supports earnings quality. Operating cash flow has improved versus 2023, but cash conversion is not consistently strong year-to-year; in TTM and 2024, operating cash flow covered a modest portion of revenue (low single-digits), and coverage levels have fluctuated across periods. Net, cash flow strength is a positive, but consistency is the area to watch.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	852.72M	672.40M	517.92M	570.73M	416.11M	269.40M
Gross Profit	486.90M	387.09M	293.18M	322.40M	237.36M	152.92M
EBITDA	278.10M	204.92M	172.41M	164.59M	122.42M	65.74M
Net Income	245.02M	183.76M	136.31M	140.21M	93.10M	47.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.31B	1.39B	1.13B	984.11M	805.15M	655.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.09B	586.57M	443.68M	373.50M	410.16M	423.87M
Total Debt	883.70M	236.10M	244.14M	246.06M	220.94M	214.42M
Total Liabilities	1.14B	462.63M	383.06M	397.14M	331.40M	284.25M
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	927.79M	750.75M	586.96M	473.75M	371.54M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	230.55M	218.05M	106.34M	98.22M	127.45M	53.81M
Operating Cash Flow	254.63M	235.27M	123.53M	119.54M	132.26M	60.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-502.66M	-136.40M	-125.33M	-100.26M	-238.50M	-42.46M
Financing Cash Flow	612.02M	-48.35M	10.00K	-29.81M	11.00K	181.41M

Nova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 454.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 454.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 434.90, above the 50-day MA of 365.36, and above the 200-day MA of 289.68, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 32.82 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 62.28 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 47.28 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVMI.

Nova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSEM	76 Outperform	$15.06B	79.34	7.19%	―	8.03%	-6.03%
ONTO	75 Outperform	$9.90B	57.06	8.96%	―	6.38%	-4.15%
NVMI	73 Outperform	$13.97B	59.61	23.58%	―	39.37%	40.87%
CAMT	72 Outperform	$6.71B	160.60	8.76%	―	21.12%	-54.97%
AMKR	66 Neutral	$11.95B	38.95	7.27%	0.81%	0.13%	-16.17%
OLED	66 Neutral	$5.46B	24.71	13.30%	1.52%	-0.58%	-6.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Nova Corporate Events

Nova Wins Key Metrion® Adoptions at Leading Logic and Memory Chipmakers

On January 29, 2026, Nova announced that its Nova Metrion® platform has been adopted by two leading global manufacturers in the Memory and Logic segments for use in Gate-All-Around (GAA) and advanced DRAM production, marking a key milestone in the tool’s market penetration. As the first fully automated Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry system validated for inline production process control, Metrion enables full-wafer mapping and near-real-time detection of process excursions directly in the fab, helping customers reduce scrap and rework while tightening statistical process control on complex film stacks. By expanding its materials metrology footprint at two critical technology inflection points, Nova strengthens its role in enabling next-generation semiconductor processes and underscores its strategy of driving sustainable growth through technology leadership in advanced metrology.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $532.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova CFO to Present at 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 14, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Nova announced that Chief Financial Officer Guy Kizner will represent the company at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York, with a moderated fireside chat scheduled for 12:45 p.m. EST on January 14, 2026 and in‑person one‑on‑one investor meetings available on January 13–14. By participating in this high‑profile growth‑equity forum, Nova is seeking to deepen engagement with the investment community, showcase its semiconductor metrology expertise and growth profile, and potentially strengthen its visibility and positioning among institutional investors focused on advanced semiconductor technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova to Announce Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results on February 12, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Nova announced that it will publish its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, February 12, 2026, underscoring the upcoming visibility into its recent operating performance. The company said President and CEO Gaby Waisman and CFO Guy Kizner will host a conference call and live webcast the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to review the results, with a replay available for one week, signaling continued engagement with investors and analysts ahead of what could be a key update on demand trends and capital spending in the semiconductor equipment sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova Appoints Veteran Tech Investor Rami Hadar to Board of Directors

On December 29, 2025, Israel-based Nova Ltd. announced that veteran high-tech executive and investor Rami Hadar joined its Board of Directors, effective December 24, 2025. Hadar, a managing partner at Claridge Israel with more than 25 years of experience in scaling technology companies, leading strategic transformations and M&A, is expected to strengthen Nova’s governance bench and support its ongoing growth strategy in advanced semiconductor metrology and process control, reinforcing the company’s strategic positioning as it seeks to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova to Engage Investors at Upcoming Conferences

On November 12, 2025, Nova announced its participation in upcoming investor conferences in November and December, with CFO Guy Kizner attending the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference in Hong Kong on November 17 and the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference in Scottsdale, AZ on December 2. These conferences provide Nova an opportunity to engage with investors through in-person one-on-one meetings, potentially enhancing its visibility and investor relations within the semiconductor industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $107500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova Achieves Record Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nova reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with revenues reaching $224.6 million, marking a 25% year-over-year increase. The company achieved record sales in memory and advanced logic devices, driven by strong demand for advanced metrology solutions. GAAP net income rose to $61.4 million, and non-GAAP net income reached $70 million. The company’s performance reflects its strong market position and the growing demand in the semiconductor industry, supported by positive forecasts and increased AI-driven demand. Nova’s management anticipates continued growth into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $388.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.