Nova (NVMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $14.46B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 409.83K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 57.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.96
• Revenue Growth: 39.37%
• EPS Growth: 40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,177
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 2.14
• Shares Outstanding: 31,782,972
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 381,733
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 409,831
• PEG Ratio: 1.05
• Price to Book (P/B): 7.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 11.23
• P/FCF Ratio: 45.37
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 16.05
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 27.97
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 49.51
• 1Y Price Target: $471.08
• Price Target Upside: 6.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 74 Outperform
• Price Target: $497.00 ▲(12.31% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/14/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/14/26

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, sharp TTM revenue step-up, and solid free cash flow) and a positive earnings-call outlook with clear Q1 guidance and expectations for H2 acceleration. Offsetting this are elevated balance-sheet leverage versus 2024, a neutral near-term technical setup (below the 20DMA), and a demanding valuation (P/E ~55.6).

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth & Scale

Nova’s revenue expanded sharply (TTM $881M, +31% YoY) driven by broad-based product wins across GAA, advanced packaging and memory. Durable topline momentum and expanding market penetration increase scale economics and support continued investment and capacity expansion over the next several quarters.

High & Stable Margins

Sustained gross margins near the high-50s and operating margins around 30% reflect differentiated metrology products and pricing power. These margin levels support durable profitability, fund R&D (>15% of revenue) and capacity builds, and provide a structural buffer versus cyclical swings in equipment demand.

Cash Generation & Liquidity

Strong operating cash flow and ~$218M FCF, together with $1.6B+ liquidity, give Nova sustained financial flexibility to fund R&D, scale manufacturing in Asia, and support multi-year product rollouts without immediate reliance on markets. This cash profile underpins long-term execution resilience.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage

Material increase in debt reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk if the equipment cycle softens. Higher leverage can constrain the company’s ability to invest opportunistically or smooth R&D/capacity spend during downturns, increasing financial vulnerability over the medium term.

Customer & Geographic Concentration

Concentration among a few customers and territories amplifies demand risk: pauses or slower buying from a major customer or region (notably China) can cause significant revenue swings. This structural concentration reduces revenue diversification and increases exposure to geopolitical and OEM cycle changes.

Cyclicality & Visibility Risk

Historical cyclicality and management’s note on shorter lead times and reduced visibility mean order timing is less predictable. That complicates capacity planning and can pressure near-term margins as operating expenses are ramped, making 2–6 month outlooks more sensitive to WFE cadence and regional demand shifts.

Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nova Ltd. designs, develops, produces, and sells process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Israel, Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. Its product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, including lithography, etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. The company serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundries, and memory manufacturers, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Nova generates revenue primarily through the sale of its metrology and inspection systems, as well as related software solutions and services. The company earns income from direct product sales, ongoing maintenance contracts, and software licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the initial sale of hardware equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, follow-up service agreements that provide support and upgrades for existing systems, and software sales that enhance the functionality of their devices. Significant partnerships with major semiconductor companies also contribute to Nova's earnings, as these collaborations often lead to long-term contracts and recurring revenue from clients looking to integrate advanced metrology solutions into their production lines.

Nova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong profitability and scale with TTM revenue rising to $881M (vs. $672M in 2024), consistently high gross margins (~56–58%), and strong net/operating margins (~29%/~30%). Cash generation is solid (TTM FCF ~$218M, ~91% of net income). The key offset is higher balance-sheet risk as total debt increased materially to ~$799M TTM (debt/equity ~0.75), plus some cyclicality/volatility in growth.

Income Statement

NVMI shows strong profitability and improving scale. TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue is up sharply versus 2024 (from $672M to $881M) with consistently high gross margins (~56–58%) and strong net margins (TTM ~29% vs. ~27% in 2024). Operating profitability is also solid (TTM operating margin ~30%). The main weakness is growth volatility: revenue declined in 2023 before re-accelerating meaningfully into 2024/TTM, suggesting some cyclicality.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet is generally healthy with rising equity ($1.32B TTM vs. $0.93B in 2024) and solid returns for shareholders (TTM return on equity ~23%). However, leverage increased materially: total debt jumped to ~$799M TTM from ~$236M in 2024, pushing debt relative to equity up to ~0.75 from ~0.25. This higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and raises risk if the semiconductor cycle weakens.

Cash Flow

Cash generation is strong, with TTM operating cash flow of ~$246M and free cash flow of ~$218M, and free cash flow running close to reported earnings (TTM free cash flow is ~91% of net income). The key weakness is that free cash flow is slightly down year-over-year in TTM (about -5%), and cash conversion versus earnings is not consistently strong across years, indicating some working-capital or timing variability.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	880.58M	672.40M	517.92M	570.73M	416.11M
Gross Profit	507.46M	387.09M	293.18M	322.40M	237.36M
EBITDA	278.09M	204.92M	172.41M	164.59M	122.42M
Net Income	259.22M	183.76M	136.31M	140.21M	93.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.36B	1.39B	1.13B	984.11M	805.15M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.05B	586.57M	443.68M	373.50M	410.16M
Total Debt	858.43M	236.10M	244.14M	246.06M	220.94M
Total Liabilities	1.04B	462.63M	383.06M	397.14M	331.40M
Stockholders Equity	1.32B	927.79M	750.75M	586.96M	473.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	217.91M	218.05M	106.34M	98.22M	127.45M
Operating Cash Flow	245.61M	235.27M	123.53M	119.54M	132.26M
Investing Cash Flow	-837.17M	-136.40M	-125.33M	-100.26M	-238.50M
Financing Cash Flow	642.21M	-48.35M	10.00K	-29.81M	11.00K

Nova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 442.53
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 442.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 454.61, above the 50-day MA of 403.98, and above the 200-day MA of 307.73, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 8.70 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NVMI.

Nova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ONTO	75 Outperform	$10.99B	80.74	6.79%	―	6.38%	-4.15%
NVMI	74 Outperform	$14.46B	56.99	23.08%	―	39.37%	40.87%
TSEM	73 Outperform	$14.08B	65.04	7.93%	―	8.03%	-6.03%
CAMT	72 Outperform	$7.50B	176.68	8.70%	―	21.12%	-54.97%
OLED	70 Outperform	$5.01B	20.11	14.32%	1.52%	-0.58%	-6.67%
AMKR	68 Neutral	$12.00B	31.28	8.67%	0.81%	0.13%	-16.17%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Nova Corporate Events

Nova Posts Record 2025 Results on AI-Driven Metrology Demand

Nova Ltd. reported on February 12, 2026 that its fourth quarter 2025 revenue rose 14% year over year to $222.6 million, with GAAP net income up 23% to $64.7 million, as gross margin improved to 57.6%. The company also highlighted a strategic win, as its integrated metrology portfolio was selected by a leading global logic customer to support CMP applications in Gate‑All‑Around processes.

For full year 2025, Nova posted record revenue of $880.6 million, up 31% from 2024, alongside record GAAP net income of $259.2 million, reflecting strong demand for its optical, materials and chemical metrology tools in AI‑driven applications such as Gate‑All‑Around, DRAM and advanced packaging. Management said the broad‑based momentum and multiple strategic qualifications strengthen its competitive position and leave Nova well placed to benefit from an expected upturn in semiconductor investment in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $506.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova Wins Key Metrion® Adoptions at Leading Logic and Memory Chipmakers

On January 29, 2026, Nova announced that its Nova Metrion® platform has been adopted by two leading global manufacturers in the Memory and Logic segments for use in Gate-All-Around (GAA) and advanced DRAM production, marking a key milestone in the tool’s market penetration. As the first fully automated Secondary Ion Mass Spectrometry system validated for inline production process control, Metrion enables full-wafer mapping and near-real-time detection of process excursions directly in the fab, helping customers reduce scrap and rework while tightening statistical process control on complex film stacks. By expanding its materials metrology footprint at two critical technology inflection points, Nova strengthens its role in enabling next-generation semiconductor processes and underscores its strategy of driving sustainable growth through technology leadership in advanced metrology.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $532.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova CFO to Present at 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 14, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Nova announced that Chief Financial Officer Guy Kizner will represent the company at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York, with a moderated fireside chat scheduled for 12:45 p.m. EST on January 14, 2026 and in‑person one‑on‑one investor meetings available on January 13–14. By participating in this high‑profile growth‑equity forum, Nova is seeking to deepen engagement with the investment community, showcase its semiconductor metrology expertise and growth profile, and potentially strengthen its visibility and positioning among institutional investors focused on advanced semiconductor technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova to Announce Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results on February 12, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Nova announced that it will publish its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, February 12, 2026, underscoring the upcoming visibility into its recent operating performance. The company said President and CEO Gaby Waisman and CFO Guy Kizner will host a conference call and live webcast the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to review the results, with a replay available for one week, signaling continued engagement with investors and analysts ahead of what could be a key update on demand trends and capital spending in the semiconductor equipment sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova Appoints Veteran Tech Investor Rami Hadar to Board of Directors

On December 29, 2025, Israel-based Nova Ltd. announced that veteran high-tech executive and investor Rami Hadar joined its Board of Directors, effective December 24, 2025. Hadar, a managing partner at Claridge Israel with more than 25 years of experience in scaling technology companies, leading strategic transformations and M&A, is expected to strengthen Nova’s governance bench and support its ongoing growth strategy in advanced semiconductor metrology and process control, reinforcing the company’s strategic positioning as it seeks to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.