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Nova
(NASDAQ:NVMI)
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Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
$528.00
▼(-0.14% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/27/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and solid ROE), partially offset by increased leverage and uneven recent cash-flow momentum. Technicals are mixed with short-term weakness despite a positive longer-term trend, while valuation is a meaningful headwind due to the high P/E and lack of dividend support.
Positive Factors
Strong Profitability
Sustained high gross and operating margins plus strong ROE indicate durable pricing power and operational scale in metrology equipment. This profitability funds R&D, supports margin-accretive service offerings, and helps absorb cyclical downturns while preserving return on invested capital.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
A sharp increase in leverage materially raises financial risk and reduces flexibility to weather a semiconductor slowdown. Higher interest and principal obligations constrain capital allocation for R&D, buybacks or strategic M&A and magnify downside if cyclical demand softens or working capital swings occur.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Profitability
Sustained high gross and operating margins plus strong ROE indicate durable pricing power and operational scale in metrology equipment. This profitability funds R&D, supports margin-accretive service offerings, and helps absorb cyclical downturns while preserving return on invested capital.
Read all positive factors
Nova (NVMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$14.94B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)466.10K
Price to Earnings (P/E)57.6
Beta (1Y)1.85
Revenue Growth21.32%
EPS Growth19.06%
CountryUS
Employees1,177
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.64
Shares Outstanding31,782,972
10 Day Avg. Volume574,742
30 Day Avg. Volume466,098
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)7.50
Price to Sales (P/S)11.23
P/FCF Ratio45.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.23
Enterprise Value/Revenue20.42
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit35.54
Enterprise Value/Ebitda55.13
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$588.25Price Target Upside11.25% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)10.47
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.06B
Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nova Ltd. is a global innovator specializing in the design, development, production, and sale of sophisticated process control systems vital for semiconductor manufacturing. Its extensive reach covers key regions such as Israel, Taiwan, the United...
How the Company Makes Money
Nova primarily makes money by selling semiconductor metrology and inspection tools (capital equipment) to semiconductor manufacturers and foundries. Revenue is generated from (1) system sales, where customers purchase Nova’s tools for installation...
Nova Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong financial and operational achievements — record revenue ($880.6M, +31% YoY), high margins, record EPS, robust cash generation ($1.6B+ liquidity and $218M free cash flow), broad-based product wins (GAA, advanced packaging, memory), and continued heavy investment in R&D and capacity. Challenges noted include shorter lead times and reduced visibility (notably in China), some customer/territory concentration, elevated operating spend as investments are ramped, and awaiting a clearer NAND recovery. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and expects accelerating momentum, particularly in H2, suggesting confidence in continued growth despite near-term visibility constraints.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Annual revenue of $880.6M, up 31% year-over-year, described as a record performance and outperformance of the industry.
Negative Updates
Reduced Visibility and Lead Time Pressure
Management cited shorter lead times and reduced visibility, particularly in China, and noted increased pressure on lead times across materials, chemical and dimensional metrology portfolios.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Annual revenue of $880.6M, up 31% year-over-year, described as a record performance and outperformance of the industry.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the first quarter of 2026 Nova guided revenue of $222 million to $232 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $1.90–$2.02 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $2.13–$2.25; at the midpoint management expects gross margins of roughly 56% GAAP and 58% non‑GAAP, GAAP operating expenses of about $65 million (non‑GAAP ~$60 million), non‑GAAP financial income of ~ $16 million and an effective tax rate near 16%. Management also reiterated a WFE outlook of low double‑digit growth, said they expect the first half of 2026 to be higher than 2025 with acceleration in the second half, and signaled the company intends to outperform WFE as orders and capacity ramps.Nova Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 902.53M | 880.58M | 672.40M | 517.92M | 570.73M | 416.11M |
| Gross Profit | 518.59M | 507.46M | 387.09M | 293.18M | 322.40M | 237.36M |
| EBITDA | 334.28M | 278.09M | 235.28M | 172.41M | 174.53M | 122.42M |
| Net Income | 263.66M | 259.22M | 183.76M | 136.31M | 140.21M | 93.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.42B | 2.36B | 1.39B | 1.13B | 984.11M | 805.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.10B | 1.05B | 586.57M | 443.68M | 373.50M | 410.16M |
| Total Debt | 800.17M | 858.43M | 236.10M | 244.14M | 246.06M | 220.94M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.03B | 1.04B | 462.63M | 383.06M | 397.14M | 331.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.39B | 1.32B | 927.79M | 750.75M | 586.96M | 473.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.25M | 217.91M | 218.05M | 106.34M | 98.22M | 127.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 217.14M | 245.61M | 235.27M | 123.53M | 119.54M | 132.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -603.40M | -837.17M | -136.40M | -125.33M | -100.26M | -238.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 662.21M | 642.21M | -48.35M | 10.00K | -29.81M | 11.00K |
Nova Technical Analysis
Negative
528.76
Price Trends
520.20
Negative
489.01
Positive
417.54
Positive
Market Momentum
1.46
Positive
46.11
Neutral
39.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 528.76 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 535.37, above the 50-day MA of 520.20, and above the 200-day MA of 417.54, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.46 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.11 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 39.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVMI.
Nova Risk Analysis
Nova disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nova reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nova Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $15.30B | 142.40 | 5.19% | ― | 0.54% | -51.32% | |
75 Outperform | $3.68B | 17.53 | 12.33% | 1.52% | -3.42% | -6.78% | |
74 Outperform | $24.48B | 108.47 | 8.54% | ― | 10.53% | 19.13% | |
70 Outperform | $17.26B | 39.57 | 9.96% | 0.81% | 12.71% | 37.49% | |
66 Neutral | $14.94B | 57.55 | 21.21% | ― | 21.32% | 19.06% | |
65 Neutral | $6.65B | 137.02 | 7.68% | ― | 10.70% | -62.92% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
NVMI
Nova
470.14
185.18
64.98%
AMKR
Amkor
69.65
47.61
216.02%
CAMT
Camtek
142.50
53.58
60.26%
ONTO
Onto Innovation
307.58
203.54
195.64%
TSEM
Tower
219.05
172.65
372.09%
OLED
Universal Display
78.70
-78.58
-49.96%
Nova Corporate Events
Nova Ltd. Shareholders Approve All Proposals at June 18, 2026 Annual Meeting
Jun 22, 2026
Nova Ltd., a foreign private issuer based in Rehovot, Israel, reports to U.S. investors under Form 20-F and maintains an SEC-registered equity compensation plan via a Form S-8 filed in 2017. Its governance and disclosure practices are aligned with...
Nova Plans Series of Investor Conference Appearances in Late May and Early June 2026
May 18, 2026
Nova announced on May 18, 2026, that its senior management team will engage with investors at several major conferences over late May and early June, signaling an active outreach effort to the capital markets. Chief Financial Officer Guy Kizner an...
Nova Sets June 18, 2026 Annual Meeting to Vote on Board Slate, CEO Pay and Auditor Reappointment
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Nova Ltd. filed a Form 6-K announcing its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders, scheduled for June 18, 2026, in Rehovot, Israel. The meeting agenda includes the re-election of six incumbent directors and the election of a n...
Nova Posts Record Q1 2026 Results on Metrology Demand and Strong Memory Sales
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Nova Ltd. reported record financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with revenue climbing to $235.3 million, up 6% sequentially and 10% year over year, surpassing guidance. GAAP net income rose to $69.3 million...
Nova Sets May 14 Date to Unveil First-Quarter 2026 Results
Apr 13, 2026
Nova Ltd. announced on April 13, 2026, that it will publish its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 before the Nasdaq market opens on Thursday, May 14, 2026. The move signals the next key update for investors following a period of indu...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.