Nova (NVMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $12.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 280.92K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 53.0
• Beta (1Y): 1.99
• Revenue Growth: 39.37%
• EPS Growth: 40.87%
• Country: US
• Employees: 1,177
• Sector: Technology
• Sector Strength: 88
• Industry: Semiconductors
• EPS (TTM): 2.16
• Shares Outstanding: 30,522,072
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 295,294
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 280,918
• PEG Ratio: 0.97
• Price to Book (P/B): 6.18
• Price to Sales (P/S): 8.53
• P/FCF Ratio: 26.30
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.85
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 11.93
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.90
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 36.59
• 1Y Price Target: $367.08
• Price Target Upside: -9.05% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: $427.00 ▲(5.79% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance (high, durable margins and solid free cash flow), supported by upbeat guidance and demand signals from the latest earnings call. Offsetting factors are elevated valuation (high P/E), more stretched technical momentum (overbought indicators), and increased leverage that reduces financial flexibility.

Positive Factors

High and Durable Profitability

Sustained high gross and net margins reflect differentiated metrology technology and pricing power in semiconductor fabs. Durable profitability supports reinvestment in R&D, funds margin-expanding scale, and underpins strong returns on capital, aiding long-term competitive positioning.

Strong Cash Generation

Free cash flow that closely tracks earnings provides durable internal funding for R&D, capacity expansion, and strategic initiatives without relying solely on external financing. Robust cash generation enhances resilience and optionality for long-term growth investments and M&A.

Tool Adoption by Leading Foundry

Being chosen as the tool of record for advanced GAA nodes is a structural win: it validates technology, drives sticky integration into fab workflows, expands TAM in advanced logic nodes, and creates high switching costs that can sustain recurring sales and services.

Negative Factors

Rising Leverage Reduces Flexibility

A material step-up in leverage limits financial flexibility for capex, R&D, and M&A during cycles. Higher debt increases funding costs and covenant risk, making the firm more vulnerable to demand downturns and reducing the ability to opportunistically invest over the medium term.

Historic Revenue Volatility

Past declines and variable year-to-year growth indicate cyclicality risk tied to semiconductor capex. Such volatility makes long-term planning and margin sustainability less predictable and increases execution risk as management scales production and R&D investments.

China Market Dynamics Are Uncertain

Shrinking share and unpredictability in China represent a durable geopolitical and market-access risk for a major semiconductor end-market. Structural uncertainty can affect customer mix, limit TAM visibility, and pressure long-term revenue diversification strategies.

Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Nova Ltd. designs, develops, produces, and sells process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Israel, Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. Its product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms for dimensional, films, and materials and chemical metrology measurements for process control for various semiconductor manufacturing process steps, including lithography, etch, chemical mechanical planarization, deposition, electrochemical plating, and advanced packaging. The company serves various sectors of the integrated circuit manufacturing industry, including logic, foundries, and memory manufacturers, as well as process equipment manufacturers. Nova Ltd. was formerly known as Nova Measuring Instruments Ltd. and changed its name to Nova Ltd. in July 2021. The company was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in Rehovot, Israel.

How the Company Makes Money

Nova generates revenue primarily through the sale of its metrology and inspection systems, as well as related software solutions and services. The company earns income from direct product sales, ongoing maintenance contracts, and software licensing agreements. Key revenue streams include the initial sale of hardware equipment to semiconductor manufacturers, follow-up service agreements that provide support and upgrades for existing systems, and software sales that enhance the functionality of their devices. Significant partnerships with major semiconductor companies also contribute to Nova's earnings, as these collaborations often lead to long-term contracts and recurring revenue from clients looking to integrate advanced metrology solutions into their production lines.

Nova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Nova exhibits strong financial performance with impressive revenue growth, robust profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company's solid balance sheet, characterized by low debt and high equity, underscores its financial health and resilience in the competitive semiconductor industry.

Income Statement

Nova has demonstrated impressive revenue growth, with a 29.8% increase from 2023 to 2024. The gross profit margin of 57.6% and net profit margin of 27.3% reflect strong profitability. Consistent EBIT and EBITDA margins of 27.9% and 34.7% respectively indicate operational efficiency. These metrics highlight Nova's robust growth and profitability in the highly competitive semiconductor industry.

Balance Sheet

The company maintains a solid balance sheet with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25, showcasing a conservative approach to leveraging. A return on equity of 19.8% indicates effective use of equity capital to generate profits. The equity ratio of 66.7% suggests substantial financial stability. Overall, Nova's balance sheet reflects strong financial health with low debt and high shareholder equity.

Cash Flow

Nova's free cash flow grew by 105.1% in 2024, evidencing strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.28 demonstrates effective cash conversion from earnings. Furthermore, the free cash flow to net income ratio of 1.19 indicates robust free cash flow relative to profits, which supports reinvestment and shareholder returns. These metrics show Nova's strong cash flow management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	852.72M	672.40M	517.92M	570.73M	416.11M	269.40M
Gross Profit	486.90M	387.09M	293.18M	322.40M	237.36M	152.92M
EBITDA	278.10M	204.92M	172.41M	164.59M	122.42M	65.74M
Net Income	245.02M	183.76M	136.31M	140.21M	93.10M	47.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.31B	1.39B	1.13B	984.11M	805.15M	655.79M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.09B	586.57M	443.68M	373.50M	410.16M	423.87M
Total Debt	883.70M	236.10M	244.14M	246.06M	220.94M	214.42M
Total Liabilities	1.14B	462.63M	383.06M	397.14M	331.40M	284.25M
Stockholders Equity	1.17B	927.79M	750.75M	586.96M	473.75M	371.54M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	230.55M	218.05M	106.34M	98.22M	127.45M	53.81M
Operating Cash Flow	254.63M	235.27M	123.53M	119.54M	132.26M	60.25M
Investing Cash Flow	-502.66M	-136.40M	-125.33M	-100.26M	-238.50M	-42.46M
Financing Cash Flow	612.02M	-48.35M	10.00K	-29.81M	11.00K	181.41M

Nova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 403.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 403.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 345.05, above the 50-day MA of 326.41, and above the 200-day MA of 270.49, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 19.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 71.56 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.93 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVMI.

Nova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ONTO	82 Outperform	$9.29B	53.85	8.96%	―	6.38%	-4.15%
CAMT	76 Outperform	$6.03B	155.92	8.76%	―	21.12%	-54.97%
TSEM	76 Outperform	$13.41B	70.30	7.19%	―	8.03%	-6.03%
NVMI	73 Outperform	$12.03B	52.98	23.58%	―	39.37%	40.87%
AMKR	69 Neutral	$12.93B	42.14	7.27%	0.81%	0.13%	-16.17%
OLED	66 Neutral	$5.98B	27.07	13.30%	1.52%	-0.58%	-6.67%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$37.18B	12.37	-10.20%	1.83%	8.50%	-7.62%

Nova Corporate Events

Nova CFO to Present at 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 14, 2026

On January 8, 2026, Nova announced that Chief Financial Officer Guy Kizner will represent the company at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York, with a moderated fireside chat scheduled for 12:45 p.m. EST on January 14, 2026 and in‑person one‑on‑one investor meetings available on January 13–14. By participating in this high‑profile growth‑equity forum, Nova is seeking to deepen engagement with the investment community, showcase its semiconductor metrology expertise and growth profile, and potentially strengthen its visibility and positioning among institutional investors focused on advanced semiconductor technologies.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova to Announce Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results on February 12, 2026

On January 7, 2026, Nova announced that it will publish its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, February 12, 2026, underscoring the upcoming visibility into its recent operating performance. The company said President and CEO Gaby Waisman and CFO Guy Kizner will host a conference call and live webcast the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time to review the results, with a replay available for one week, signaling continued engagement with investors and analysts ahead of what could be a key update on demand trends and capital spending in the semiconductor equipment sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $427.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova Appoints Veteran Tech Investor Rami Hadar to Board of Directors

On December 29, 2025, Israel-based Nova Ltd. announced that veteran high-tech executive and investor Rami Hadar joined its Board of Directors, effective December 24, 2025. Hadar, a managing partner at Claridge Israel with more than 25 years of experience in scaling technology companies, leading strategic transformations and M&A, is expected to strengthen Nova’s governance bench and support its ongoing growth strategy in advanced semiconductor metrology and process control, reinforcing the company’s strategic positioning as it seeks to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $380.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova to Engage Investors at Upcoming Conferences

On November 12, 2025, Nova announced its participation in upcoming investor conferences in November and December, with CFO Guy Kizner attending the J.P. Morgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference in Hong Kong on November 17 and the UBS Global Technology and AI Conference in Scottsdale, AZ on December 2. These conferences provide Nova an opportunity to engage with investors through in-person one-on-one meetings, potentially enhancing its visibility and investor relations within the semiconductor industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $107500.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova Achieves Record Third Quarter 2025 Financial Results

Nova reported record financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with revenues reaching $224.6 million, marking a 25% year-over-year increase. The company achieved record sales in memory and advanced logic devices, driven by strong demand for advanced metrology solutions. GAAP net income rose to $61.4 million, and non-GAAP net income reached $70 million. The company’s performance reflects its strong market position and the growing demand in the semiconductor industry, supported by positive forecasts and increased AI-driven demand. Nova’s management anticipates continued growth into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $388.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.

Nova to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results on November 6

On October 15, 2025, Nova announced it will release its third-quarter financial results for 2025 on November 6, before the Nasdaq market opens. The announcement includes a conference call hosted by Nova’s executives to discuss the results, indicating the company’s proactive engagement with stakeholders and its commitment to transparency. This event may impact Nova’s market positioning and investor relations by providing insights into its financial health and operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (NVMI) stock is a Buy with a $390.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Nova stock, see the NVMI Stock Forecast page.