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Nova
(NASDAQ:NVMI)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
$428.00
▼(-2.28% Downside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:07/31/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (high margins and robust recent growth) and a positive earnings call with upward Q2 guidance and market-share gains. These strengths are tempered by weak technical positioning (price below major moving averages) and a relatively high valuation (P/E ~46), alongside increased leverage and some cash-flow softness.
Positive Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect structural differentiation in Nova’s metrology tools, enabling pricing power and strong returns on invested capital. These margins support persistent cash generation, fund R&D and capacity builds, and provide a buffer through semiconductor cycles.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage
Material increase in leverage reduces financial flexibility, raises interest and refinancing risk, and limits the firm’s ability to absorb demand shocks in cyclical capital-equipment markets. Higher debt constrains optionality on R&D or strategic M&A if industry spending weakens.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High margins & profitability
Sustained high gross and operating margins reflect structural differentiation in Nova’s metrology tools, enabling pricing power and strong returns on invested capital. These margins support persistent cash generation, fund R&D and capacity builds, and provide a buffer through semiconductor cycles.
Read all positive factors
Nova (NVMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$11.66B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)520.18K
Price to Earnings (P/E)46.1
Beta (1Y)1.81
Revenue Growth21.32%
EPS Growth19.06%
CountryUS
Employees1,612
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)8.64
Shares Outstanding31,782,972
10 Day Avg. Volume509,250
30 Day Avg. Volume520,178
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)7.50
Price to Sales (P/S)11.23
P/FCF Ratio45.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$588.25Price Target Upside34.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)10.48
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.07B
Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nova Ltd. is a global innovator specializing in the design, development, production, and sale of sophisticated process control systems vital for semiconductor manufacturing. Its extensive reach covers key regions such as Israel, Taiwan, the United...
How the Company Makes Money
Nova primarily makes money by selling semiconductor metrology and inspection tools (capital equipment) to semiconductor manufacturers and foundries. Revenue is generated from (1) system sales, where customers purchase Nova’s tools for installation...
Nova Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational and financial momentum: record revenue, record profitability, market-share gains (400 bps), broad-based product and service strength, and upward guidance for Q2. Management addressed risks but presented clear mitigation steps (capacity expansion, supplier management, R&D investment). The lowlights—supplier cost pressure, competition (notably in China and XPS/material metrology), a slightly elevated tax rate, and some uncertainty on process-control dynamics—are notable but relatively limited compared with the positive financial outcomes and strategic progress.Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $235.3 million in Q1 2026, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 10% increase year-over-year, exceeding the high end of guidance.
Negative Updates
Supplier and Cost Pressure
Management noted some supply-chain pressure and supplier cost inflation tied to higher chip prices and other factors; company is mitigating via supplier management and cost actions but cost pressure remains a risk.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue
Revenue of $235.3 million in Q1 2026, a 6% increase quarter-over-quarter and a 10% increase year-over-year, exceeding the high end of guidance.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Nova guided second-quarter 2026 revenue of $245–$255 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $2.10–$2.24 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $2.34–$2.48; at the midpoint it expects GAAP gross margin ≈57% and non‑GAAP gross margin ≈59%, GAAP operating expenses of ≈$72 million (≈$66 million non‑GAAP), non‑GAAP financial income of ≈$16 million and an effective tax rate of ≈15%. For context, the guidance follows a record Q1 (revenue $235.3M, +6% QoQ / +10% YoY) with Q1 blended gross margins of 57.7% GAAP / 59.4% non‑GAAP, operating margins of 30% GAAP / 34% non‑GAAP, GAAP operating expenses $64.9M ($59.4M non‑GAAP) and Q1 EPS of $2.04 GAAP / $2.33 non‑GAAP.Nova Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
73
Positive
Cash Flow
67
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 902.53M | 880.58M | 672.40M | 517.92M | 570.73M | 416.11M |
| Gross Profit | 518.59M | 507.46M | 387.09M | 293.18M | 322.40M | 237.36M |
| EBITDA | 334.28M | 278.09M | 235.28M | 172.41M | 174.53M | 122.42M |
| Net Income | 263.66M | 259.22M | 183.76M | 136.31M | 140.21M | 93.10M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.42B | 2.36B | 1.39B | 1.13B | 984.11M | 805.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.10B | 1.05B | 586.57M | 443.68M | 373.50M | 410.16M |
| Total Debt | 800.17M | 858.43M | 236.10M | 244.14M | 246.06M | 220.94M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.03B | 1.04B | 462.63M | 383.06M | 397.14M | 331.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.39B | 1.32B | 927.79M | 750.75M | 586.96M | 473.75M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 194.25M | 217.91M | 218.05M | 106.34M | 98.22M | 127.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 217.14M | 245.61M | 235.27M | 123.53M | 119.54M | 132.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -603.40M | -837.17M | -136.40M | -125.33M | -100.26M | -238.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 662.21M | 642.21M | -48.35M | 10.00K | -29.81M | 11.00K |
Nova Technical Analysis
Negative
437.98
Price Trends
492.50
Negative
488.74
Negative
430.67
Negative
Market Momentum
-18.75
Positive
40.68
Neutral
40.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 437.98 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 444.93, below the 50-day MA of 492.50, and above the 200-day MA of 430.67, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -18.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 40.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVMI.
Nova Risk Analysis
Nova disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nova reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nova Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
71 Outperform | $20.99B | 92.86 | 8.54% | ― | 10.53% | 19.13% | |
69 Neutral | $10.86B | 111.99 | 5.19% | ― | 0.54% | -51.32% | |
69 Neutral | $3.75B | 18.33 | 12.33% | 2.40% | -3.42% | -6.78% | |
67 Neutral | $11.66B | 46.12 | 21.21% | ― | 21.32% | 19.06% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $10.62B | 20.40 | 9.96% | 0.51% | 17.93% | 82.27% | |
59 Neutral | $5.92B | 134.67 | 7.68% | ― | 10.70% | -62.92% |
* Technology Sector Average
NVMI
Nova
394.07
131.48
50.07%
AMKR
Amkor
48.26
25.89
115.75%
CAMT
Camtek
137.23
43.08
45.76%
ONTO
Onto Innovation
250.52
155.77
164.40%
TSEM
Tower
211.16
165.41
361.55%
OLED
Universal Display
80.36
-61.49
-43.35%
Nova Corporate Events
Nova Sets August 6 Date to Announce Q2 2026 Results
Jul 6, 2026
Nova Ltd., a leading provider of metrology and process control solutions for semiconductor manufacturers, will release its second-quarter 2026 financial results before the Nasdaq market opens on Thursday, August 6, 2026. The announcement underscor...
Nova Wins Tool-of-Record Slot for WMC Platform at Leading Foundry
Jul 2, 2026
Nova announced on July 2, 2026 that a leading global foundry has selected its Nova WMC™ platform as tool‑of‑record for multilayer measurement in the most advanced packaging processes. The decision followed a competitive evaluatio...
Nova Ltd. Shareholders Approve All Proposals at June 18, 2026 Annual Meeting
Jun 22, 2026
Nova Ltd., a foreign private issuer based in Rehovot, Israel, reports to U.S. investors under Form 20-F and maintains an SEC-registered equity compensation plan via a Form S-8 filed in 2017. Its governance and disclosure practices are aligned with...
Nova Plans Series of Investor Conference Appearances in Late May and Early June 2026
May 18, 2026
Nova announced on May 18, 2026, that its senior management team will engage with investors at several major conferences over late May and early June, signaling an active outreach effort to the capital markets. Chief Financial Officer Guy Kizner an...
Nova Sets June 18, 2026 Annual Meeting to Vote on Board Slate, CEO Pay and Auditor Reappointment
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Nova Ltd. filed a Form 6-K announcing its 2026 annual general meeting of shareholders, scheduled for June 18, 2026, in Rehovot, Israel. The meeting agenda includes the re-election of six incumbent directors and the election of a n...
Nova Posts Record Q1 2026 Results on Metrology Demand and Strong Memory Sales
May 14, 2026
On May 14, 2026, Nova Ltd. reported record financial results for the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, with revenue climbing to $235.3 million, up 6% sequentially and 10% year over year, surpassing guidance. GAAP net income rose to $69.3 million...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.