Nova (NVMI)
NASDAQ:NVMI
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Nova
(NASDAQ:NVMI)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
$497.00
▲(4.52% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/14/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, sharp TTM revenue step-up, and solid free cash flow) and a positive earnings-call outlook with clear Q1 guidance and expectations for H2 acceleration. Offsetting this are elevated balance-sheet leverage versus 2024, a neutral near-term technical setup (below the 20DMA), and a demanding valuation (P/E ~55.6).
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth & Scale
Nova’s revenue expanded sharply (TTM $881M, +31% YoY) driven by broad-based product wins across GAA, advanced packaging and memory. Durable topline momentum and expanding market penetration increase scale economics and support continued investment and capacity expansion over the next several quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising Leverage
Material increase in debt reduces balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing and interest-rate risk if the equipment cycle softens. Higher leverage can constrain the company’s ability to invest opportunistically or smooth R&D/capacity spend during downturns, increasing financial vulnerability over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue Growth & Scale
Nova’s revenue expanded sharply (TTM $881M, +31% YoY) driven by broad-based product wins across GAA, advanced packaging and memory. Durable topline momentum and expanding market penetration increase scale economics and support continued investment and capacity expansion over the next several quarters.
Read all positive factors
Nova (NVMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$15.70B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)370.55K
Price to Earnings (P/E)38.1
Beta (1Y)1.85
Revenue Growth39.37%
EPS Growth40.87%
CountryUS
Employees1,177
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.14
Shares Outstanding31,782,972
10 Day Avg. Volume363,526
30 Day Avg. Volume370,551
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.05
Price to Book (P/B)7.50
Price to Sales (P/S)11.23
P/FCF Ratio45.37
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue18.57
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit32.37
Enterprise Value/Ebitda57.30
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$482.46Price Target Upside1.46% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)10.33
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.03B
Nova Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nova Ltd. designs, develops, produces, and sells process control systems used in the manufacture of semiconductors in Israel, Taiwan, the United States, China, Korea, and internationally. Its product portfolio includes a set of metrology platforms...
How the Company Makes Money
Nova generates revenue primarily through the sale of its metrology and inspection systems, as well as related software solutions and services. The company earns income from direct product sales, ongoing maintenance contracts, and software licensin...
Nova Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized multiple strong financial and operational achievements — record revenue ($880.6M, +31% YoY), high margins, record EPS, robust cash generation ($1.6B+ liquidity and $218M free cash flow), broad-based product wins (GAA, advanced packaging, memory), and continued heavy investment in R&D and capacity. Challenges noted include shorter lead times and reduced visibility (notably in China), some customer/territory concentration, elevated operating spend as investments are ramped, and awaiting a clearer NAND recovery. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance and expects accelerating momentum, particularly in H2, suggesting confidence in continued growth despite near-term visibility constraints.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Annual revenue of $880.6M, up 31% year-over-year, described as a record performance and outperformance of the industry.
Negative Updates
Reduced Visibility and Lead Time Pressure
Management cited shorter lead times and reduced visibility, particularly in China, and noted increased pressure on lead times across materials, chemical and dimensional metrology portfolios.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue and Strong YoY Growth
Annual revenue of $880.6M, up 31% year-over-year, described as a record performance and outperformance of the industry.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For the first quarter of 2026 Nova guided revenue of $222 million to $232 million, GAAP diluted EPS of $1.90–$2.02 and non‑GAAP diluted EPS of $2.13–$2.25; at the midpoint management expects gross margins of roughly 56% GAAP and 58% non‑GAAP, GAAP operating expenses of about $65 million (non‑GAAP ~$60 million), non‑GAAP financial income of ~ $16 million and an effective tax rate near 16%. Management also reiterated a WFE outlook of low double‑digit growth, said they expect the first half of 2026 to be higher than 2025 with acceleration in the second half, and signaled the company intends to outperform WFE as orders and capacity ramps.Nova Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
90
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
78
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 880.58M | 672.40M | 517.92M | 570.73M | 416.11M |
| Gross Profit | 507.46M | 387.09M | 293.18M | 322.40M | 237.36M |
| EBITDA | 278.09M | 204.92M | 172.41M | 164.59M | 122.42M |
| Net Income | 259.22M | 183.76M | 136.31M | 140.21M | 93.10M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.36B | 1.39B | 1.13B | 984.11M | 805.15M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.05B | 586.57M | 443.68M | 373.50M | 410.16M |
| Total Debt | 858.43M | 236.10M | 244.14M | 246.06M | 220.94M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.04B | 462.63M | 383.06M | 397.14M | 331.40M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.32B | 927.79M | 750.75M | 586.96M | 473.75M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 217.91M | 218.05M | 106.34M | 98.22M | 127.45M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 245.61M | 235.27M | 123.53M | 119.54M | 132.26M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -837.17M | -136.40M | -125.33M | -100.26M | -238.50M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 642.21M | -48.35M | 10.00K | -29.81M | 11.00K |
Nova Technical Analysis
Positive
475.52
Price Trends
449.29
Positive
399.93
Positive
345.88
Positive
Market Momentum
6.02
Negative
62.88
Neutral
77.87
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 475.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 452.70, above the 50-day MA of 449.29, and above the 200-day MA of 345.88, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 6.02 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 62.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.87 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NVMI.
Nova Risk Analysis
Nova disclosed 51 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nova reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nova Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | $12.27B | 59.58 | 6.85% | ― | 6.38% | -4.15% | |
77 Outperform | $22.78B | 60.53 | 7.85% | ― | 8.03% | -6.03% | |
74 Outperform | $15.70B | 38.14 | 22.70% | ― | 39.37% | 40.87% | |
71 Outperform | $8.09B | 95.83 | 8.42% | ― | 21.12% | -54.97% | |
70 Outperform | $4.40B | 22.94 | 14.07% | 1.52% | -0.58% | -6.67% | |
68 Neutral | $13.64B | 26.10 | 8.73% | 0.81% | 0.13% | -16.17% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% |
* Technology Sector Average
NVMI
Nova
494.08
316.10
177.60%
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Nova Corporate Events
Nova Posts Record 2025 Results on AI-Driven Metrology Demand
Feb 12, 2026
Nova Ltd. reported on February 12, 2026 that its fourth quarter 2025 revenue rose 14% year over year to $222.6 million, with GAAP net income up 23% to $64.7 million, as gross margin improved to 57.6%. The company also highlighted a strategic win, ...
Nova Wins Key Metrion® Adoptions at Leading Logic and Memory Chipmakers
Jan 29, 2026
On January 29, 2026, Nova announced that its Nova Metrion® platform has been adopted by two leading global manufacturers in the Memory and Logic segments for use in Gate-All-Around (GAA) and advanced DRAM production, marking a key milestone i...
Nova CFO to Present at 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference on January 14, 2026
Jan 8, 2026
On January 8, 2026, Nova announced that Chief Financial Officer Guy Kizner will represent the company at the 28th Annual Needham Growth Conference in New York, with a moderated fireside chat scheduled for 12:45 p.m. EST on January 14, 2026 and in&...
Nova to Announce Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results on February 12, 2026
Jan 7, 2026
On January 7, 2026, Nova announced that it will publish its financial results for the fourth quarter and full year 2025 before the U.S. market opens on Thursday, February 12, 2026, underscoring the upcoming visibility into its recent operating per...
Nova Appoints Veteran Tech Investor Rami Hadar to Board of Directors
Dec 29, 2025
On December 29, 2025, Israel-based Nova Ltd. announced that veteran high-tech executive and investor Rami Hadar joined its Board of Directors, effective December 24, 2025. Hadar, a managing partner at Claridge Israel with more than 25 years of exp...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.