Semtech Corp. (SMTC)
NASDAQ:SMTC
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Semtech
(NASDAQ:SMTC)
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Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
$78.00
▲(0.06% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/24/26
The score is driven mainly by improved financial performance and strong earnings-call momentum (growth, margin, and cash-flow narrative). These positives are meaningfully offset by weak technical signals (trading below key moving averages with negative MACD) and limited valuation support given GAAP losses and no dividend yield provided.
Positive Factors
Record revenue growth and sustained top-line momentum
Semtech delivered record annual revenue ($1.05B, +15% YoY) and eight consecutive quarters of sales growth, indicating durable end-market demand and execution on design wins. This sustained top-line momentum supports multi-year content ramps in data center and LoRa ecosystems, improving predictability of future shipments and strategic investments.
Negative Factors
GAAP net loss and historical earnings volatility
Despite margin and revenue gains, Semtech’s GAAP net losses and historical volatility in earnings indicate persistent risks to sustained profitability. Intermittent large losses and prior negative equity mean improvements must be durable to restore consistent net income, affecting long-term capital returns and stakeholder confidence.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Record revenue growth and sustained top-line momentum
Semtech delivered record annual revenue ($1.05B, +15% YoY) and eight consecutive quarters of sales growth, indicating durable end-market demand and execution on design wins. This sustained top-line momentum supports multi-year content ramps in data center and LoRa ecosystems, improving predictability of future shipments and strategic investments.
Read all positive factors
Semtech (SMTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$7.25B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.86M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.10
Revenue Growth20.60%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryUS
Employees1,838
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySemiconductors
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.44
Shares Outstanding92,540,054
10 Day Avg. Volume2,895,467
30 Day Avg. Volume1,858,015
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio2.23
Price to Book (P/B)13.05
Price to Sales (P/S)6.83
P/FCF Ratio41.87
Enterprise Value/Market Cap1.04
Enterprise Value/Revenue5.77
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit11.18
Enterprise Value/Ebitda35.12
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$104.62Price Target Upside34.21% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)2.18
Revenue Forecast (FY)$1.19B
Semtech Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Semtech Corporation designs, develops, manufactures, and markets analog and mixed-signal semiconductor products and advanced algorithms. It provides signal integrity products, including a portfolio of optical data communications and video transpor...
How the Company Makes Money
Semtech primarily makes money by selling semiconductor products and connectivity solutions to original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) and through distribution channels, generating revenue when its components and related technologies are designed i...
Semtech Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 16, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 03, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong financial and operational momentum: record annual revenue ($1.05B), robust Q4 growth, large EPS improvement (FY +94%), improved margins and cash generation, and strategic progress through the HIFU acquisition and multiple data-center design wins (ACC, LPO, NPO). Near-term headwinds include HIFU capacity constraints, incremental ramp costs pressuring Semiconductor gross margin in Q1, higher OpEx and an increased tax rate, and some end-market variability (consumer sequential decline and IoT Systems lumpiness). On balance the positives — particularly data center revenue acceleration, cash flow strength, margin expansion, and accretive acquisition strategy — materially outweigh the near-term risks.Positive Updates
Record Annual Revenue
Fiscal 2026 net sales reached a record $1,050,000,000, representing annual growth of 15% year over year.
Negative Updates
Capacity Constraints and Supply Risk for HIFU Products
HIFU products (gain chips and CW lasers) are capacity constrained today; management expects to add capacity but indicated industry-wide demand for epi/fab equipment is high and lead times could affect ramp timing.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Annual Revenue
Fiscal 2026 net sales reached a record $1,050,000,000, representing annual growth of 15% year over year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For Q1 of fiscal 2027 Semtech guided net sales of $283.0M ± $5.0M (up ~13% year‑over‑year at the midpoint), with data center revenue expected to grow ~12% sequentially; infrastructure up sequentially, high‑end consumer sales up ~9% sequentially (~13% YoY) and industrial roughly flat. They forecast adjusted gross margin of 52.8% ± 50 bps (Total Semiconductor Products margin 60.4% ± 50 bps, down ~130 bps sequentially including initial HIFU ramp costs), adjusted net operating expenses of $96.9M ± $1.0M (implying an adjusted operating margin ~18.6% at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $59.5M ± $3.0M (≈21% EBITDA margin), adjusted interest & other expense, net of ~$0.5M, an adjusted normalized tax rate of 27% for FY2027 (vs. 15% in FY2026), and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.45 ± $0.03 based on ~96.6M weighted average shares; management also reiterated that HIFU is expected to be accretive to non‑GAAP EPS within the first year and that data center revenue is expected to grow >50% year‑over‑year for the fiscal year.Semtech Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
58
Neutral
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
66
Positive
| Breakdown | Jan 2026 | Jan 2025 | Jan 2024 | Jan 2023 | Jan 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.05B | 909.29M | 868.76M | 756.53M | 740.86M |
| Gross Profit | 541.60M | 455.64M | 373.99M | 478.96M | 461.14M |
| EBITDA | 174.40M | 111.05M | 50.34M | 195.88M | 177.58M |
| Net Income | -40.40M | -161.90M | -1.09B | 61.38M | 125.66M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.41B | 1.42B | 1.37B | 2.57B | 1.13B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 195.20M | 164.46M | 143.13M | 235.51M | 279.60M |
| Total Debt | 491.20M | 551.50M | 1.40B | 1.34B | 175.65M |
| Total Liabilities | 860.50M | 876.84M | 1.68B | 1.81B | 393.14M |
| Stockholders Equity | 549.70M | 542.43M | -307.43M | 755.85M | 737.58M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 171.38M | 43.78M | -125.02M | 98.39M | 176.94M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 181.17M | 57.99M | -93.92M | 126.71M | 203.12M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -38.76M | -11.89M | -22.70M | -1.25B | -40.32M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 0.00 | -21.66M | 10.55M | 1.08B | -152.10M |
Semtech Technical Analysis
Neutral
77.95
Price Trends
83.79
Negative
77.99
Negative
66.66
Positive
Market Momentum
-2.42
Positive
44.24
Neutral
28.12
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMTC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 77.95 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 84.65, below the 50-day MA of 83.79, and above the 200-day MA of 66.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.42 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.24 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.12 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SMTC.
Semtech Risk Analysis
Semtech disclosed 60 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Semtech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Semtech Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | $6.98B | 10.99 | 20.13% | ― | 2.19% | 19.22% | |
79 Outperform | $10.43B | 59.58 | 6.85% | ― | 6.38% | -4.15% | |
72 Outperform | $9.10B | -205.54 | -4.23% | ― | 59.04% | 28.50% | |
66 Neutral | $5.88B | 149.88 | -1.40% | ― | -7.23% | -15.69% | |
65 Neutral | $6.83B | -66.51 | -6.05% | ― | 47.10% | 64.29% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
55 Neutral | $7.25B | -63.06 | -6.93% | ― | 20.60% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
SMTC
Semtech
77.95
37.88
94.53%
CRUS
Cirrus Logic
142.91
40.25
39.21%
ONTO
Onto Innovation
219.46
80.70
58.16%
SLAB
Silicon Laboratories
207.19
84.16
68.41%
SITM
SiTime Corporation
354.35
168.08
90.23%
ALGM
Allegro MicroSystems
32.58
5.44
20.04%
Semtech Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Semtech Posts Record Quarterly Sales Amid Improved Margins
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
On March 16, 2026, Semtech reported record fourth-quarter net sales of $274.4 million, up 3% sequentially and 9% year-on-year, with GAAP gross margin at 50.4% and non-GAAP gross margin at 51.6%. The quarter produced a GAAP operating loss with a ma...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.