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Semtech Corp. (SMTC)
NASDAQ:SMTC
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Semtech (SMTC) AI Stock Analysis

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SMTC

Semtech

(NASDAQ:SMTC)

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Neutral 59 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:59Neutral
Price Target:
$141.00
▲(30.91% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:07/07/26
SMTC scores moderately due to improving underlying fundamentals (strong free cash flow and a healthier balance sheet trend) and a notably positive earnings call with upbeat growth and margin guidance. These positives are tempered by weak near-term technicals (trading below the 20/50-day averages) and unfavorable valuation signals driven by ongoing GAAP net losses (negative P/E).
Positive Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Material positive FCF and operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for R&D, working capital and capacity investments, reducing reliance on external financing. Even with a ~15% FCF decline versus prior period, sustained positive cash conversion supports multi-quarter execution and strategic optionality.
Negative Factors
Top-line volatility and GAAP net losses
A shrinking TTM top line and ongoing GAAP net losses limit free distributions to shareholders and make earnings recovery dependent on sustained revenue improvement. Persistent top-line pressure increases execution risk for margin targets and constrains return of capital until profitability stabilizes.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong free cash flow generation
Material positive FCF and operating cash flow provide durable internal funding for R&D, working capital and capacity investments, reducing reliance on external financing. Even with a ~15% FCF decline versus prior period, sustained positive cash conversion supports multi-quarter execution and strategic optionality.
Read all positive factors

Semtech (SMTC) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Semtech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description
Semtech Corporation is a technology firm specializing in the creation, production, and global distribution of advanced analog and mixed-signal semiconductor components, complemented by sophisticated algorithms. The company's extensive product port...
How the Company Makes Money
Semtech makes money primarily by selling hardware and related solutions to device makers, OEMs, and industrial customers, supplemented by software/services and licensing/royalty-type economics tied to its connectivity ecosystem. 1) Semiconductor ...

Semtech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 26, 2026
(Q1-2027)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Sep 02, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presents a strongly positive operational and financial story: record revenue, sizable year-over-year and sequential growth, strong adjusted EPS beat, improving margins and confident guidance for Q2 and FY27 driven by broad-based demand across data center (800G and 1.6T), robust LoRa momentum, strategic M&A (HIFU) and design wins. Notable near-term negatives include sequential declines in operating and free cash flow due to bonuses and acquisition outflows, a temporary margin compression in the signal integrity segment as a facility ramps, and supply/capacity constraints (notably GaN) that management is actively addressing. Overall, the highlights substantially outweigh the lowlights given strong backlog, guidance, and product traction.
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Revenue and Continued Growth
Reported record quarterly revenue of $291.0M in Q1 FY27, up 6% sequentially and up 16% year-over-year; marks the ninth consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
Negative Updates
Sequential Cash Flow Decline
Operating cash flow fell to $36.2M in Q1, down 41% sequentially (though up 30% YoY). Free cash flow was $28.0M, down 53% sequentially (up 7% YoY). Company cited FY26 annual bonus payments and acquisition cash outflows (net acquisition consideration of $29.2M) as drivers of sequential cash decline.
Read all updates
Q1-2027 Updates
Negative
Record Quarterly Revenue and Continued Growth
Reported record quarterly revenue of $291.0M in Q1 FY27, up 6% sequentially and up 16% year-over-year; marks the ninth consecutive quarter of net sales growth.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Semtech guided Q2 FY2027 net sales of $328M ± $5M (midpoint +13% sequentially, +27% YoY) with data center revenue targeted to grow ~35% sequentially (≈85% YoY) and LoRa revenue expected >15% sequential growth; it forecast adjusted gross margin of 54% ±50 bps (midpoint +100 bps seq, +80 bps YoY) and total semiconductor products gross margin of 62.1% ±50 bps (midpoint +140 bps seq and YoY), adjusted net operating expenses of ≈ $105.2M ± $2M driving an adjusted operating margin of 21.9% midpoint (+150 bps seq, +310 bps YoY), adjusted EBITDA of $79.2M ± $2.3M (24.2% margin midpoint, +140 bps seq, +32 bps YoY), adjusted interest/other ≈ $0.5M, an adjusted normalized tax rate of 17%, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.61 ± $0.02 (midpoint +20% sequential, +49% YoY) on ~97.7M weighted average shares.

Semtech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Financials are improving but not fully repaired: operating profitability is positive (EBIT margin ~11%) and free cash flow is solidly positive (~$162M TTM), while leverage has improved to positive equity. Offsetting this, TTM revenue is down ~16% and net income remains negative (~-3% net margin), keeping the score only moderately above average.
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
72
Positive
BreakdownTTMJan 2026Jan 2025Jan 2024Jan 2023Jan 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.09B1.05B909.29M868.76M756.53M740.86M
Gross Profit561.28M541.60M455.64M373.99M478.96M461.14M
EBITDA55.82M60.20M-44.91M-851.06M131.07M182.53M
Net Income-33.23M-40.40M-161.90M-1.09B61.38M125.66M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.44B1.41B1.42B1.37B2.57B1.13B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments163.31M195.18M164.46M143.13M235.51M279.60M
Total Debt491.98M497.30M557.53M1.40B1.34B175.65M
Total Liabilities865.62M860.62M876.84M1.68B1.81B393.14M
Stockholders Equity573.32M549.72M542.43M-307.43M755.85M737.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow159.32M159.73M43.78M-125.02M98.39M176.94M
Operating Cash Flow177.87M169.51M57.99M-93.92M126.71M203.12M
Investing Cash Flow-76.18M-38.76M-11.89M-22.70M-1.25B-40.32M
Financing Cash Flow-95.85M-89.42M-21.66M10.55M1.08B-152.10M

Semtech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price107.71
Price Trends
50DMA
145.11
Negative
100DMA
116.44
Positive
200DMA
94.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-4.13
Positive
RSI
44.67
Neutral
STOCH
26.10
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SMTC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 107.71 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 152.56, below the 50-day MA of 145.11, and above the 200-day MA of 94.95, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -4.13 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.10 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for SMTC.

Semtech Risk Analysis

Semtech disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Semtech reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Semtech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
83
Outperform
$7.59B18.5620.21%5.34%29.84%
79
Outperform
$15.99B148.815.19%0.54%-51.32%
75
Outperform
$16.60B-628.94-2.15%65.19%73.74%
69
Neutral
$10.22B-679.93-1.57%22.77%79.17%
65
Neutral
$7.21B-142.76-4.66%25.14%70.00%
61
Neutral
$37.18B12.37-10.20%1.83%8.50%-7.62%
59
Neutral
$12.68B-5.93%14.22%81.01%
* Technology Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
SMTC
Semtech
136.13
89.20
190.07%
CRUS
Cirrus Logic
150.36
46.22
44.38%
ONTO
Onto Innovation
321.44
222.44
224.69%
SLAB
Silicon Laboratories
218.63
78.68
56.22%
SITM
SiTime Corporation
628.94
423.17
205.65%
ALGM
Allegro MicroSystems
54.87
18.27
49.92%

Semtech Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Semtech Establishes New $360 Million Credit Facility
Positive
Jul 6, 2026
On July 6, 2026, Semtech Corporation entered into a new Credit Agreement establishing a $360 million revolving credit facility and an uncommitted incremental term loan option, replacing and fully repaying its prior JPMorgan-led facility from Septe...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Semtech Reports Record Q1 Fiscal 2027 Revenue Growth
Positive
May 26, 2026
On May 26, 2026, Semtech reported unaudited results for the first quarter of fiscal 2027, which ended April 26, 2026, posting record net sales of $291.0 million, up 6% sequentially and 16% year over year, with GAAP gross margin at 52.0% and operat...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 07, 2026