Waste Connections (WCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $62.14B
• Dividend Yield: 0.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 336.85K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 72.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 10.49%
• EPS Growth: -32.11%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 23,854
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.02
• Shares Outstanding: 256,023,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 322,855
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 336,851
• PEG Ratio: -3.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.21
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.16
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.41
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 31.87
• 1Y Price Target: $293.77
• Price Target Upside: 25.15% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 72 Outperform
• Price Target: C$277.00 ▲(18.01% Upside)

Waste Connections demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic growth initiatives, particularly in M&A and sustainability. However, high leverage, declining free cash flow, and a high P/E ratio pose risks. The earnings call provided positive guidance, but technical indicators suggest a neutral trend. Overall, the stock is moderately attractive with some caution advised.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for Waste Connections' services, reflecting effective market penetration and pricing strategies that support long-term business expansion.

M&A Strategy

The robust acquisition strategy enhances Waste Connections' market position and revenue base, providing a durable competitive advantage and supporting sustained growth through expanded service offerings and geographic reach.

Sustainability Achievements

Commitment to sustainability and safety not only enhances Waste Connections' brand reputation but also aligns with regulatory trends, potentially reducing future compliance costs and attracting environmentally conscious clients.

Negative Factors

Rising Debt Levels

Higher leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, particularly in economic downturns, potentially impacting Waste Connections' ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather market fluctuations.

Volume Decline

Declining volumes, especially in cyclical sectors like construction, could signal weakening demand and pose challenges to maintaining revenue growth, impacting Waste Connections' operational efficiency and profitability.

Commodity Headwinds

Falling commodity prices can reduce revenue from recycling services, affecting Waste Connections' profitability and cash flow, potentially limiting its ability to invest in new initiatives or pay down debt.

Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company also owns and operates transfer stations that receive compact and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; and intermodal services for the rail haul movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest through a network of intermodal facilities. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste resulting from oil and natural gas exploration and production activity, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Further, the company offers leasing services to its customers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 334 solid waste collection operations; 142 transfer stations; 61 municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills; 12 E&P waste landfills; 14 non-MSW landfills; 71 recycling operations; 4 intermodal operations; 23 E&P liquid waste injection wells; and 19 E&P waste treatment and oil recovery facilities. The company also operates an additional 53 transfer stations, 10 MSW landfills, and 2 intermodal operations. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Waste Connections generates revenue primarily through its waste collection and disposal services, which include residential, commercial, and industrial waste management solutions. The company charges customers for waste collection services based on a variety of pricing structures, including flat fees, per-bag charges, or volume-based pricing. Key revenue streams also come from landfill operations, where Waste Connections earns income from tipping fees charged to customers for disposing of waste. Additionally, the company generates revenue from recycling services, which can provide a secondary income stream through the sale of recycled materials. Significant partnerships with municipalities for waste management contracts further bolster its revenue, as well as mergers and acquisitions that expand its operational footprint and customer base. Overall, Waste Connections' diverse service offerings and strategic positioning within the waste management industry contribute to its earnings.

Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Waste Connections exhibits strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and profitability. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 42.0% and a robust EBITDA margin of 25.43%. While the balance sheet shows stability, the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.09 suggests moderate leverage. Cash flow generation is strong, providing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Waste Connections has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the latest TTM revenue reaching $9.08 billion, a 1.75% increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 42.0%, and the net profit margin has slightly improved to 6.93%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 12.02% and 25.43%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and management control over expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.09, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.85%, reflecting a stable performance in generating returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is 39.57%, showing a balanced capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity. The balance sheet demonstrates stability but suggests a watchful eye on debt levels.

Cash Flow

Waste Connections has shown consistent free cash flow generation, with a slight increase in free cash flow to $1.18 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.62, indicating excellent cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income is 1.88, suggesting robust cash conversion and financial flexibility. The company maintains a solid cash flow position, supporting growth and operational investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.23B	8.92B	8.02B	7.21B	6.15B	5.45B
Gross Profit	3.88B	3.73B	3.28B	2.88B	2.50B	2.17B
EBITDA	2.36B	2.25B	2.26B	2.17B	1.89B	1.17B
Net Income	643.83M	617.57M	762.80M	835.66M	618.05M	204.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.68B	19.82B	17.92B	17.13B	14.70B	13.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	110.17M	62.37M	78.40M	78.64M	147.44M	617.29M
Total Debt	8.67B	8.39B	7.02B	7.10B	5.21B	4.89B
Total Liabilities	12.32B	11.96B	10.22B	10.02B	7.71B	7.13B
Stockholders Equity	8.35B	7.86B	7.69B	7.11B	6.99B	6.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.14B	1.17B	1.19B	1.11B	953.91M	743.96M
Operating Cash Flow	2.31B	2.23B	2.13B	2.02B	1.70B	1.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.39B	-3.16B	-1.58B	-3.09B	-1.69B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	150.59M	944.95M	-544.40M	1.03B	-499.50M	-78.22M

Waste Connections Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 234.73
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 234.73 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 242.69, below the 50-day MA of 245.21, and below the 200-day MA of 258.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.54 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.32 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 28.94 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WCN.

Waste Connections Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	―	$62.14B	72.28	7.61%	0.71%	10.49%	-32.11%
Sector *	―	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SES	―	C$4.19B	22.73	21.26%	2.19%	3.90%	-57.75%
GFL	―	$22.24B	―	-0.03%	0.14%	-5.22%	-129.20%
BLM	―	C$57.34M	―	-3.01%	―	63.49%	-133.70%
ANRG	―	C$417.19M	―	―	―	3.71%	81.27%

Waste Connections Corporate Events

Waste Connections’ Earnings Call: Strong Growth Amid Challenges

The recent earnings call for Waste Connections, Inc. painted a picture of strong financial performance and strategic advancements, albeit with some challenges. The company demonstrated robust growth through strategic mergers and acquisitions (M&A), and significant strides in sustainability and technology. However, it also faces hurdles from declining commodity prices, reduced volumes, and economic uncertainties.

Waste Connections Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results

Waste Connections, Inc. is an integrated solid waste services company operating in the non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, and disposal sector, serving approximately nine million customers across the U.S. and Canada. The company also focuses on resource recovery through recycling and renewable fuels generation.

Waste Connections Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results

On October 21, 2025, Waste Connections announced its third quarter 2025 financial results, reporting revenue of $2.458 billion and net income of $286.3 million. The company exceeded expectations with an adjusted EBITDA of $830.3 million and increased its quarterly dividend by 11.1%. Waste Connections also completed share repurchases of approximately 1% of shares outstanding and closed or agreed to acquisitions totaling $300 million in annualized revenue. The results reflect superior execution in improving operating trends and cost management, positioning the company well for continued growth and shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$270.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Sets Date for Q3 2025 Earnings Release

Waste Connections, Inc. announced it will release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 21, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on October 22. The company actively engages in investor conferences and presentations, emphasizing its commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. This announcement highlights Waste Connections’ ongoing efforts to maintain strong communication with investors and stakeholders, reinforcing its market position and commitment to sustainable growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Hold with a C$192.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Appoints New COO Amid Leadership Transition

On July 31, 2025, Waste Connections, Inc. announced the appointment of Jason Craft as the new Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, effective August 9, 2025, succeeding Darrell W. Chambliss following his retirement. Mr. Craft, who has been with the company since 2003, will receive an annual base salary of $500,000 with a target annual bonus of 100% of his base salary, and will be eligible for equity awards valued at 225% of his base salary, highlighting the company’s strategic leadership transition and compensation alignment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections COO Darrell Chambliss Retires

On July 24, 2025, Waste Connections, Inc. announced the retirement of Darrell W. Chambliss from his role as Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer, a position he held since 2003. Mr. Chambliss will transition to a new role as Senior Advisor with an annual base salary of $50,000, without eligibility for future bonus or equity awards, as per a new letter agreement. The company plans to appoint his successor soon.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$230.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.