Waste Connections (WCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $65.10B
• Dividend Yield: 0.7%
• Average Volume (3M): 320.17K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 73.2
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 12.84%
• EPS Growth: -23.50%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 23,854
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 76
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.76
• Shares Outstanding: 257,466,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 255,407
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 320,174
• PEG Ratio: -3.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.19
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.40
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 19.99
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 32.83
• 1Y Price Target: $295.61
• Price Target Upside: 16.92% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 17

• Rating: 71 Outperform
• Price Target: C$282.00 ▲(11.54% Upside)

Waste Connections demonstrates strong financial performance and strategic growth through acquisitions, contributing positively to its stock score. However, high valuation metrics and technical indicators reflecting a neutral trend moderate the overall score. Earnings call insights further support a positive outlook, despite some industry-specific challenges.

Positive Factors

Digital Investments

Advancements in digital investments and technology are expected to improve customer experience and internal efficiencies, lowering operating costs.

Earnings

Waste Connections’ stock rebounded 2% following strong second-quarter results, even though guidance moved to the low end of prior ranges.

Mergers and Acquisitions

WCN is well-positioned to capitalize on opportunities as M&A activity remains elevated.

Negative Factors

Commodity Prices

Guidance feels mostly de-risked, with expectations set for potential revenue headwinds from recycled commodity prices and E&P volumes.

Construction Volume Decline

Construction volumes are down for seven straight quarters with an average year-over-year decline of 7-8%, reversing a positive seasonal trend.

Revenue Guidance

WCN lowered FY25 revenue, EBITDA, FCF guidance to the bottom of prior ranges as weaker commodity prices and construction volumes take hold.

Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waste Connections, Inc. is a leading North American integrated waste services company providing solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. The company operates in both the municipal and commercial sectors, catering to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Waste Connections is known for its commitment to environmental stewardship and sustainability, offering a range of services that include curbside collection, landfill operations, and recycling solutions across various regions.

How the Company Makes Money

Waste Connections generates revenue primarily through its waste collection and disposal services, which include residential, commercial, and industrial waste management solutions. The company charges customers for waste collection services based on a variety of pricing structures, including flat fees, per-bag charges, or volume-based pricing. Key revenue streams also come from landfill operations, where Waste Connections earns income from tipping fees charged to customers for disposing of waste. Additionally, the company generates revenue from recycling services, which can provide a secondary income stream through the sale of recycled materials. Significant partnerships with municipalities for waste management contracts further bolster its revenue, as well as mergers and acquisitions that expand its operational footprint and customer base. Overall, Waste Connections' diverse service offerings and strategic positioning within the waste management industry contribute to its earnings.

Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Waste Connections exhibits strong financial performance with solid revenue growth and profitability. The company maintains a healthy gross profit margin of 42.0% and a robust EBITDA margin of 25.43%. While the balance sheet shows stability, the debt-to-equity ratio of 1.09 suggests moderate leverage. Cash flow generation is strong, providing financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Waste Connections has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the latest TTM revenue reaching $9.08 billion, a 1.75% increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 42.0%, and the net profit margin has slightly improved to 6.93%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 12.02% and 25.43%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and management control over expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.09, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.85%, reflecting a stable performance in generating returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is 39.57%, showing a balanced capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity. The balance sheet demonstrates stability but suggests a watchful eye on debt levels.

Cash Flow

Waste Connections has shown consistent free cash flow generation, with a slight increase in free cash flow to $1.18 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.62, indicating excellent cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income is 1.88, suggesting robust cash conversion and financial flexibility. The company maintains a solid cash flow position, supporting growth and operational investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.23B	8.92B	8.02B	7.21B	6.15B	5.45B
Gross Profit	3.88B	3.73B	3.28B	2.88B	2.50B	2.17B
EBITDA	2.36B	2.25B	2.26B	2.17B	1.89B	1.17B
Net Income	643.83M	617.57M	762.80M	835.66M	618.05M	204.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.68B	19.82B	17.92B	17.13B	14.70B	13.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	110.17M	62.37M	78.40M	78.64M	147.44M	617.29M
Total Debt	8.67B	8.39B	7.02B	7.10B	5.21B	4.89B
Total Liabilities	12.32B	11.96B	10.22B	10.02B	7.71B	7.13B
Stockholders Equity	8.35B	7.86B	7.69B	7.11B	6.99B	6.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.14B	1.17B	1.19B	1.11B	953.91M	743.96M
Operating Cash Flow	2.31B	2.23B	2.13B	2.02B	1.70B	1.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.39B	-3.16B	-1.58B	-3.09B	-1.69B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	150.59M	944.95M	-544.40M	1.03B	-499.50M	-78.22M

Waste Connections Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 252.83
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 252.83 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 257.58, below the 50-day MA of 254.10, and below the 200-day MA of 261.71, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.86 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WCN.

Waste Connections Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	71 Outperform	$65.10B	73.19	7.88%	0.70%	12.84%	-23.50%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.95B	16.37	8.81%	1.96%	2.68%	-15.33%
BLM	41 Neutral	C$44.60M	1,714.29	0.16%	―	49.38%	-93.75%
BQE	―	C$73.91M	10.41	38.06%	―	―	―
SES	55 Neutral	C$3.65B	19.67	21.26%	2.40%	3.90%	-57.75%
GFL	―	$18.14B	10.03	-0.03%	0.12%	―	―
ANRG	46 Neutral	C$377.52M	―	105.95%	―	3.71%	81.27%

Waste Connections Corporate Events

Waste Connections Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Call

Waste Connections announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 23, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on July 24. This announcement highlights the company’s ongoing communication with investors and stakeholders, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and engagement in its financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

Waste Connections, Inc. announced the pricing of a $500 million public offering of 5.25% Senior Notes due 2035, with the offering expected to close on June 4, 2025. The net proceeds of approximately $495 million will be used to repay a portion of the borrowings under its revolving credit facility, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Announces Senior Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Position

Waste Connections announced its intention to offer senior notes in an underwritten public offering, with the proceeds aimed at repaying part of its revolving credit facility. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s financial position, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market presence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Announces Shareholder Meeting Results and Director Elections

Waste Connections announced the results of its Annual Shareholders Meeting, where all eight director nominees were elected. The shareholders approved the compensation of the company’s executive officers and the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s commitment to strong corporate governance and strategic financial oversight, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.