Waste Connections (WCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $66.29B
• Dividend Yield: 0.67%
• Average Volume (3M): 388.09K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 74.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.46
• Revenue Growth: 12.84%
• EPS Growth: -23.50%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 23,854
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 87
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.76
• Shares Outstanding: 257,466,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 426,269
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 388,087
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 0.00
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 8.55
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 20.34
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 33.62
• 1Y Price Target: $295.93
• Price Target Upside: 14.93% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 16

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$300.00 ▲(16.51%Upside)

Waste Connections, Inc. shows robust financial performance and positive earnings call sentiment, pointing to continued growth and operational efficiency. However, the high P/E ratio suggests potential overvaluation, and modest dividend yield limits income appeal. Positive corporate events further support the company's strategic position.

Positive Factors

Capital Deployment Opportunities

The strength in the stock reflects the improving visibility into a favourable set-up in 2026, a positive update for its problematic landfill in California, and attractive capital deployment opportunities.

Digital Investments and Technology

Advancements in digital investments and technology are expected to improve customer experience and internal efficiencies, lowering operating costs.

Negative Factors

Construction Volumes

Construction volumes are down for seven straight quarters with an average year-over-year decline of 7-8%, reversing a positive seasonal trend.

Recycled Commodities and RINs

Non-waste factors such as recycled commodities and RINs are currently in the spotlight and holding back positive solid waste trends.

Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company also owns and operates transfer stations that receive compact and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; and intermodal services for the rail haul movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest through a network of intermodal facilities. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste resulting from oil and natural gas exploration and production activity, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Further, the company offers leasing services to its customers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 334 solid waste collection operations; 142 transfer stations; 61 municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills; 12 E&P waste landfills; 14 non-MSW landfills; 71 recycling operations; 4 intermodal operations; 23 E&P liquid waste injection wells; and 19 E&P waste treatment and oil recovery facilities. The company also operates an additional 53 transfer stations, 10 MSW landfills, and 2 intermodal operations. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Waste Connections generates revenue through a combination of collection, disposal, transfer, and recycling services. The company's primary revenue streams include residential, commercial, and industrial waste collection services, which involve regularly scheduled waste pickup and transportation to disposal sites. Additionally, Waste Connections operates a network of transfer stations and landfills, where it charges tipping fees for the disposal of waste. The company also derives revenue from recycling services, where it collects, processes, and sells recyclable materials. Key factors contributing to Waste Connections' earnings include exclusive franchise agreements in many of its markets, which provide stable, long-term revenue, and strategic acquisitions that expand its service area and customer base.

Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Waste Connections shows strong financial health with solid revenue growth and commendable profitability metrics. The company's balanced capital structure, though with a moderate level of leverage, and robust cash flows support its growth potential.

Income Statement

Waste Connections has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the latest TTM revenue reaching $9.08 billion, a 1.75% increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 42.0%, and the net profit margin has slightly improved to 6.93%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 12.02% and 25.43%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and management control over expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.09, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.85%, reflecting a stable performance in generating returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is 39.57%, showing a balanced capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity. The balance sheet demonstrates stability but suggests a watchful eye on debt levels.

Cash Flow

Waste Connections has shown consistent free cash flow generation, with a slight increase in free cash flow to $1.18 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.62, indicating excellent cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income is 1.88, suggesting robust cash conversion and financial flexibility. The company maintains a solid cash flow position, supporting growth and operational investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.08B	8.92B	8.02B	7.21B	6.15B	5.45B
Gross Profit	3.81B	3.73B	3.28B	2.88B	2.50B	2.17B
EBITDA	2.31B	2.25B	2.26B	2.17B	1.89B	1.17B
Net Income	629.03M	617.57M	762.80M	835.66M	618.05M	204.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.25B	19.82B	17.92B	17.13B	14.70B	13.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	111.23M	62.37M	78.40M	78.64M	147.44M	617.29M
Total Debt	8.70B	8.39B	7.02B	7.10B	5.21B	4.89B
Total Liabilities	12.24B	11.96B	10.22B	10.02B	7.71B	7.13B
Stockholders Equity	8.01B	7.86B	7.69B	7.11B	6.99B	6.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.18B	1.17B	1.19B	1.11B	953.91M	743.96M
Operating Cash Flow	2.28B	2.23B	2.13B	2.02B	1.70B	1.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.43B	-3.16B	-1.58B	-3.09B	-1.69B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	179.85M	944.95M	-544.40M	1.03B	-499.50M	-78.22M

Waste Connections Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 257.48
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 257.48 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 253.25, above the 50-day MA of 256.88, and below the 200-day MA of 261.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.17 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 72.60 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:WCN.

Waste Connections Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	77 Outperform	$66.29B	74.61	7.88%	0.67%	12.84%	-23.50%
Sector *	71 Outperform	¥257.47B	14.37	8.45%	2.83%	6.40%	12.21%
BLM	50 Neutral	C$50.18M	1,928.57	0.16%	―	49.38%	-93.75%
BQE	―	C$71.27M	10.04	38.06%	―	―	―
SES	75 Outperform	C$3.36B	18.22	21.26%	2.62%	3.90%	-57.75%
GFL	―	$18.29B	10.03	-0.03%	0.12%	―	―
ANRG	49 Neutral	C$229.46M	―	105.95%	―	-17.26%	91.10%

Waste Connections Corporate Events

Waste Connections Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Call

Waste Connections announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 23, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on July 24. This announcement highlights the company’s ongoing communication with investors and stakeholders, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and engagement in its financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

Waste Connections, Inc. announced the pricing of a $500 million public offering of 5.25% Senior Notes due 2035, with the offering expected to close on June 4, 2025. The net proceeds of approximately $495 million will be used to repay a portion of the borrowings under its revolving credit facility, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Announces Senior Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Position

Waste Connections announced its intention to offer senior notes in an underwritten public offering, with the proceeds aimed at repaying part of its revolving credit facility. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s financial position, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market presence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Announces Shareholder Meeting Results and Director Elections

Waste Connections announced the results of its Annual Shareholders Meeting, where all eight director nominees were elected. The shareholders approved the compensation of the company’s executive officers and the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s commitment to strong corporate governance and strategic financial oversight, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.