Waste Connections (TSE:WCN)
TSX:WCN
Want to see TSE:WCN full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Waste Connections
(TSX:WCN)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$251.00
▲(14.72% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/24/26
The score is driven primarily by solid underlying financial performance and a constructive earnings outlook with pricing and margin support. These positives are tempered by expensive valuation metrics and weaker technical momentum (below the 200-day average with negative MACD), alongside near-term headwinds highlighted on the call (fuel lag effects and Chiquita Canyon cash impact).
Positive Factors
Consistent revenue and margin expansion
Sustained top‑line growth with simultaneous EBITDA margin expansion indicates durable pricing power and operational leverage. Combined organic volume/price growth and disciplined cost management support repeatable cash generation and resilient earnings over multiple quarters.
Negative Factors
Rising leverage and reduced flexibility
Higher leverage increases interest and refinancing risk and constrains optionality for large capex or acquisitions. While returns on equity remain solid, elevated debt ratios reduce cushion against macro shocks and lengthen payback timelines for new investments.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Consistent revenue and margin expansion
Sustained top‑line growth with simultaneous EBITDA margin expansion indicates durable pricing power and operational leverage. Combined organic volume/price growth and disciplined cost management support repeatable cash generation and resilient earnings over multiple quarters.
Read all positive factors
Waste Connections (WCN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$56.91B
Dividend Yield0.75%
Average Volume (3M)310.67K
Price to Earnings (P/E)48.1
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth5.20%
EPS Growth68.52%
CountryCA
Employees23,854
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.68
Shares Outstanding254,080,920
10 Day Avg. Volume301,229
30 Day Avg. Volume310,670
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.56
Price to Book (P/B)5.47
Price to Sales (P/S)4.76
P/FCF Ratio36.98
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$274.54Price Target Upside25.48% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering20
EPS Forecast (FY)7.53
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$13.66B
Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration a...
How the Company Makes Money
Waste Connections makes money primarily by charging customers recurring service fees to collect, transport, process, and dispose of non-hazardous solid waste. Its core revenue stream is collection—regularly scheduled pickup services for residentia...
Waste Connections Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 22, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and financial start to 2026: revenue, adjusted EBITDA and margin performance exceeded expectations, pricing retention and AI-driven tools materially improved retention and yield visibility, special waste and landfill tons grew, and the balance sheet and M&A pipeline remain strong. However, material near-term headwinds persist — notably a sharp diesel price spike with lagged surcharge recovery (impacting Q2), ongoing remediation and cash impact at Chiquita Canyon ($100–$150M in 2026), weather-driven volume weakness, and persistent C&D softness. Management provided mitigating actions (hedges, surcharges, AI benefits, and M&A discipline) and expects many headwinds to be largely insulated over time, which supports an overall constructive outlook.Positive Updates
Revenue Growth Above Expectations
Q1 revenue of $2.371 billion, up $143 million or +6.4% year-over-year; contributions from acquisitions net of divestitures totaled $55 million; organic growth in solid waste collection, transfer and disposal of +3.1%.
Negative Updates
Diesel Price Spike and Near-Term Fuel Pressure
Spot diesel in the U.S. was up ~12% YoY and surged >35% in March, driving internal fuel costs roughly $5 million above expectations in Q1. Only ~45–50% of expected diesel requirements are hedged, and fuel surcharge recovery is lagged — Q2 expected to be the most impacted quarter. Management illustrated potential incremental surcharge flow-through of $60–$70 million in a downside example if unhedged exposure persists.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Revenue Growth Above Expectations
Q1 revenue of $2.371 billion, up $143 million or +6.4% year-over-year; contributions from acquisitions net of divestitures totaled $55 million; organic growth in solid waste collection, transfer and disposal of +3.1%.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reaffirmed the February 2026 outlook and said the year is off to a strong start, citing Q1 revenue of $2.371B (+6.4% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $769.5M (+8% YoY) and a 32.5% adjusted‑EBITDA margin (≈+50 bps YoY; ~90 bps underlying less ~40 bps commodity drag). They reported Q1 core price 6% with >75% of increases in place, giving visibility to the high end of full‑year core price guidance (~5–5.5%); Q1 yield was 4.7% (implying solid‑waste volumes ≈‑1.5%). Q1 adjusted free cash flow was $246M with full‑year FCF guidance $1.40–$1.45B; Chiquita Canyon FCF impact is expected to be $100–$150M in 2026 (declining thereafter). Balance‑sheet and markets: net debt ≈$9.1B (net debt/EBITDA ≈2.75x), liquidity ≈$1B, $600M note issued (avg rate ~4%, tenor >8 yrs, ~80% fixed). Commodity and operating datapoints: spot diesel +12% YoY (+35% in March) with ~45–50% hedged (Q1 fuel costs ≈$5M above plan; unhedged exposure could imply ~$60–$70M incremental surcharges on ~50M gallons if sustained); recycled OCC averaged $89/ton (exited ~$94), RINs ≈$2.40; landfill tons +4% (MSW +5%, C&D ‑5%), special waste +8% (6th straight quarter); roll‑off pulls ‑1% with rates/pull +3%; AI pricing tool drove ~20% better retention/pricing effectiveness, company spending ~$25–30M/year on AI (7 initiatives through 2027) and targeting ~100 bps of margin uplift by 2028; M&A pipeline ~ $100M of annualized revenue expected to close by end‑Q2/early‑Q3, YTD outlays ≈$365M, and ~1% of shares repurchased; voluntary turnover <10% (14th consecutive quarter of improvement).Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
74
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 9.57B | 9.47B | 8.92B | 8.02B | 7.21B | 6.15B |
| Gross Profit | 3.76B | 4.01B | 3.73B | 3.28B | 2.88B | 2.50B |
| EBITDA | 2.97B | 2.98B | 2.25B | 2.26B | 2.17B | 1.75B |
| Net Income | 1.05B | 1.08B | 617.57M | 762.80M | 835.66M | 618.05M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 21.20B | 21.13B | 19.82B | 17.92B | 17.13B | 14.70B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 112.53M | 45.97M | 62.37M | 78.40M | 78.64M | 147.44M |
| Total Debt | 9.44B | 9.13B | 8.39B | 7.02B | 7.10B | 5.21B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.14B | 12.88B | 11.96B | 10.22B | 10.02B | 7.71B |
| Stockholders Equity | 8.06B | 8.25B | 7.86B | 7.69B | 7.11B | 6.99B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.93B | 1.22B | 1.17B | 1.19B | 1.11B | 953.91M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 2.41B | 2.41B | 2.23B | 2.13B | 2.02B | 1.70B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.77B | -2.02B | -3.16B | -1.58B | -3.09B | -1.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -567.99M | -360.04M | 944.95M | -544.40M | 1.03B | -499.50M |
Waste Connections Technical Analysis
Negative
218.79
Price Trends
226.04
Negative
231.33
Negative
238.47
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.73
Positive
38.94
Neutral
10.82
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 218.79 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 222.90, below the 50-day MA of 226.04, and below the 200-day MA of 238.47, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 38.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 10.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WCN.
Waste Connections Risk Analysis
Waste Connections disclosed 38 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Waste Connections reported the most risks in the "Production" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
Our inability to adapt to and manage the benefits and risks of Artificial Intelligence (AI) could expose us to liability or put us at a disadvantage. Q4, 2025
Waste Connections Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$56.91B | 48.08 | 12.93% | 0.75% | 5.20% | 68.52% | |
67 Neutral | C$19.76B | 5.68 | -21.15% | 0.14% | -15.85% | -95.47% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | C$5.05B | 18.18 | 14.65% | 2.27% | -24.24% | -74.52% | |
56 Neutral | C$532.29M | 55.53 | -11.74% | ― | 61.39% | ― | |
44 Neutral | C$52.16M | -243.45 | -12.79% | ― | 71.07% | -1287.10% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
223.98
-45.62
-16.92%
TSE:BLM
BluMetric Environmental
0.95
-0.32
-25.20%
TSE:BQE
BQE Water
82.00
29.00
54.72%
TSE:SES
SECURE Waste Infrastructure
23.31
10.44
81.10%
TSE:GFL
GFL Environmental
55.21
-13.71
-19.89%
TSE:ANRG
Anaergia
3.10
1.93
164.96%
Waste Connections Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Waste Connections Sets Date for First-Quarter 2026 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Mar 26, 2026
Waste Connections, Inc., a major North American provider of non-hazardous solid waste collection, transfer, disposal and resource recovery services, operates in mostly exclusive and secondary markets across the U.S. and Canada while also offering ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Waste Connections Prices $600 Million Senior Notes to Refinance Credit Facility
Positive
Mar 7, 2026
Waste Connections has priced a $600 million underwritten public offering of 4.800% senior notes due 2036 at 99.732% of face value, with closing expected on March 16, 2026, subject to customary conditions. The transaction, led by a syndicate of maj...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Waste Connections Plans Senior Notes Offering to Refinance Revolving Debt
Positive
Mar 5, 2026
Waste Connections, Inc., a major North American provider of non-hazardous solid waste, recycling and renewable fuels services, operates in primarily exclusive and secondary markets across most U.S. states and several Canadian provinces, while also...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.