Waste Connections (WCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $59.36B
• Dividend Yield: 0.76%
• Average Volume (3M): 304.75K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 69.0
• Beta (1Y): 0.32
• Revenue Growth: 10.49%
• EPS Growth: -32.11%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 23,854
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 2.02
• Shares Outstanding: 256,023,500
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 243,888
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 304,747
• PEG Ratio: -3.77
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.63
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.96
• P/FCF Ratio: 37.70
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.27
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.10
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 21.07
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 29.80
• 1Y Price Target: $285.42
• Price Target Upside: 20.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 18
• EPS Forecast (FY): 7.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): $13.25B

• Rating: 75 Outperform
• Price Target: C$280.00 ▲(17.88% Upside)

Waste Connections demonstrates strong financial performance and positive earnings call insights, which are significant strengths. However, technical indicators suggest potential overvaluation, and the high P/E ratio indicates the stock may be overpriced. The company's strategic focus on acquisitions and sustainability positions it well for future resilience, but managing leverage and costs will be crucial to sustaining growth.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

The consistent revenue growth indicates strong demand for Waste Connections' services, reflecting effective market penetration and pricing strategies that support long-term business expansion.

M&A Strategy

The robust acquisition strategy enhances Waste Connections' market position and revenue base, providing a durable competitive advantage and supporting sustained growth through expanded service offerings and geographic reach.

Sustainability Achievements

Commitment to sustainability and safety not only enhances Waste Connections' brand reputation but also aligns with regulatory trends, potentially reducing future compliance costs and attracting environmentally conscious clients.

Negative Factors

Rising Debt Levels

Higher leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, particularly in economic downturns, potentially impacting Waste Connections' ability to invest in growth opportunities or weather market fluctuations.

Volume Decline

Declining volumes, especially in cyclical sectors like construction, could signal weakening demand and pose challenges to maintaining revenue growth, impacting Waste Connections' operational efficiency and profitability.

Commodity Headwinds

Falling commodity prices can reduce revenue from recycling services, affecting Waste Connections' profitability and cash flow, potentially limiting its ability to invest in new initiatives or pay down debt.

Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waste Connections, Inc. provides non-hazardous waste collection, transfer, disposal, and resource recovery services in the United States and Canada. It offers collection services to residential, commercial, municipal, industrial, and exploration and production (E&P) customers; landfill disposal services; and recycling services for various recyclable materials, including compost, cardboard, mixed paper, plastic containers, glass bottles, and ferrous and aluminum metals. The company also owns and operates transfer stations that receive compact and/or load waste to be transported to landfills or treatment facilities through truck, rail, or barge; and intermodal services for the rail haul movement of cargo and solid waste containers in the Pacific Northwest through a network of intermodal facilities. In addition, it provides E&P waste treatment, recovery, and disposal services for waste resulting from oil and natural gas exploration and production activity, such as drilling fluids, drill cuttings, completion fluids, and flowback water; production wastes and produced water during a well's operating life; contaminated soils that require treatment during site reclamation; and substances, which require clean-up after a spill, reserve pit clean-up, or pipeline rupture. Further, the company offers leasing services to its customers. As of December 31, 2021, it owned 334 solid waste collection operations; 142 transfer stations; 61 municipal solid waste (MSW) landfills; 12 E&P waste landfills; 14 non-MSW landfills; 71 recycling operations; 4 intermodal operations; 23 E&P liquid waste injection wells; and 19 E&P waste treatment and oil recovery facilities. The company also operates an additional 53 transfer stations, 10 MSW landfills, and 2 intermodal operations. Waste Connections, Inc. was founded in 1997 and is based in Woodbridge, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Waste Connections generates revenue primarily through its waste collection and disposal services, which account for the majority of its earnings. The company charges customers fees for collecting and transporting waste, as well as tipping fees for disposing of waste at its landfills. Key revenue streams include residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal waste services. Furthermore, Waste Connections enhances its earnings through recycling operations, where it processes recyclable materials for resale. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with municipalities, which provide stable revenue streams. Strategic acquisitions of smaller waste management companies allow Waste Connections to expand its service footprint and customer base, contributing further to its financial performance.

Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Waste Connections shows robust revenue growth and stable profitability metrics, which are positive indicators of financial health. However, increasing leverage and declining free cash flow growth suggest areas for caution. The company should focus on improving operational efficiency and managing debt levels to sustain long-term growth.

Income Statement

Waste Connections demonstrates strong revenue growth with a TTM increase of 1.75% and consistent gross profit margins around 42%. The net profit margin is stable at approximately 7%, indicating efficient cost management. However, the slight decline in EBIT and EBITDA margins over the years suggests potential pressure on operational efficiency.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio has increased to 1.04 in the TTM, indicating higher leverage, which could pose risks if not managed carefully. Return on equity remains healthy at around 7.9%, reflecting effective use of equity. The equity ratio is stable, showing a balanced asset structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.15, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, free cash flow has declined by 3.49% in the TTM, and the free cash flow to net income ratio is below 0.5, suggesting potential constraints in cash available for expansion or debt reduction.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.60B	8.92B	8.02B	7.21B	6.15B	5.45B
Gross Profit	3.57B	3.73B	3.28B	2.88B	2.50B	2.17B
EBITDA	2.53B	2.25B	2.26B	2.17B	1.75B	1.17B
Net Income	622.05M	617.57M	762.80M	835.66M	618.05M	204.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.78B	19.82B	17.92B	17.13B	14.70B	13.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	117.60M	62.37M	78.40M	78.64M	147.44M	617.29M
Total Debt	8.94B	8.39B	7.02B	7.10B	5.21B	4.89B
Total Liabilities	12.69B	11.96B	10.22B	10.02B	7.71B	7.13B
Stockholders Equity	8.09B	7.86B	7.69B	7.11B	6.99B	6.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	2.03B	1.17B	1.19B	1.11B	953.91M	743.96M
Operating Cash Flow	2.43B	2.23B	2.13B	2.02B	1.70B	1.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-1.95B	-3.16B	-1.58B	-3.09B	-1.69B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	-426.90M	944.95M	-544.40M	1.03B	-499.50M	-78.22M

Waste Connections Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 237.52
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 237.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 242.01, below the 50-day MA of 240.37, and below the 200-day MA of 254.49, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.35 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.70 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:WCN.

Waste Connections Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	75 Outperform	$59.36B	69.04	7.61%	0.76%	10.49%	-32.11%
SES	67 Neutral	C$3.64B	36.79	11.37%	2.32%	-1.47%	-79.68%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
GFL	57 Neutral	$22.01B	―	<0.01%	0.14%	-10.87%	-168.62%
BLM	54 Neutral	C$54.39M	―	-3.01%	―	63.49%	-133.70%
ANRG	54 Neutral	C$388.80M	-10.92	―	―	28.43%	80.34%

Waste Connections Corporate Events

Waste Connections Sets Date for Q3 2025 Earnings Release

Waste Connections, Inc. announced it will release its third-quarter 2025 financial results on October 21, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on October 22. The company actively engages in investor conferences and presentations, emphasizing its commitment to transparency and stakeholder engagement. This announcement highlights Waste Connections’ ongoing efforts to maintain strong communication with investors and stakeholders, reinforcing its market position and commitment to sustainable growth.