Waste Connections (WCN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $65.30B
• Dividend Yield: 0.69%
• Average Volume (3M): 299.26K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 75.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.48
• Revenue Growth: 14.23%
• EPS Growth: -18.94%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 23,854
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 93
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 1.55
• Shares Outstanding: 258,394,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 384,374
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 299,264
• PEG Ratio: 1.10
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.79
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 30.71
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.63
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 10.78
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 4.27
• 1Y Price Target: $295.18
• Price Target Upside: 17.11% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 15

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$305.00 ▲(21.00%Upside)

Waste Connections exhibits solid financial performance and strong earnings sentiment, contributing to a high score. However, technical indicators and valuation suggest caution, with a high P/E ratio and neutral momentum affecting the overall score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

WCN is considered the best-in-class waste peer due to its unique business model, strong pricing ability, and proven margin profile.

Mergers and Acquisitions

The year 2025 is set to be another strong year for acquisition activity, with the company completing acquisitions generating annual revenues of over $125 million.

Stock Performance

The stock has outperformed the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite by approximately 20% and 10%, respectively, indicating strong performance in a volatile market.

Negative Factors

Revenue Guidance

Revenue guidance was about 1% below consensus, and adjusted EBITDA margin guidance was about 40 basis points below consensus, reflecting normal second-quarter seasonal trends.

Volume Performance

Solid waste volumes were negative 2.8% in 1Q but down 2.3% after adjusting for weather.

Waste Connections Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Waste Connections, Inc. (WCN) is a leading integrated solid waste services company that provides comprehensive waste management solutions across the United States and Canada. The company operates in the environmental services sector, offering a wide range of services including solid waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling. Waste Connections serves a diverse customer base, including residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal clients, ensuring efficient and sustainable waste management practices.

How the Company Makes Money

Waste Connections generates revenue primarily through its waste collection, transfer, disposal, and recycling services. The company charges fees for collecting and transporting waste from residential, commercial, and industrial customers to transfer stations or directly to disposal sites. Additionally, Waste Connections earns revenue from tipping fees for waste disposed of at its owned or operated landfills and transfer stations. Recycling services also contribute to the company's earnings, as it processes recyclable materials and sells them to third-party buyers. Key factors contributing to its revenue include long-term contracts with municipalities and businesses, strategic acquisitions to expand market presence, and maintaining efficient operations to manage costs effectively. Furthermore, Waste Connections benefits from its vertically integrated operations, which allow it to control various stages of the waste management process, enhancing profitability.

Waste Connections Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Waste Connections shows strong financial health with solid revenue growth and commendable profitability metrics. The company's balanced capital structure, though with a moderate level of leverage, and robust cash flows support its growth potential.

Income Statement

Waste Connections has demonstrated strong revenue growth, with the latest TTM revenue reaching $9.08 billion, a 1.75% increase from the previous year. The gross profit margin is healthy at 42.0%, and the net profit margin has slightly improved to 6.93%. Both EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 12.02% and 25.43%, respectively, indicating efficient operations and management control over expenses.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at 1.09, indicating a moderate level of leverage. Return on equity (ROE) is 7.85%, reflecting a stable performance in generating returns on shareholder investments. The equity ratio is 39.57%, showing a balanced capital structure with a significant portion of assets financed by equity. The balance sheet demonstrates stability but suggests a watchful eye on debt levels.

Cash Flow

Waste Connections has shown consistent free cash flow generation, with a slight increase in free cash flow to $1.18 billion. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 3.62, indicating excellent cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow to net income is 1.88, suggesting robust cash conversion and financial flexibility. The company maintains a solid cash flow position, supporting growth and operational investments.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	9.08B	8.92B	8.02B	7.21B	6.15B	5.45B
Gross Profit	3.81B	3.73B	3.28B	2.88B	2.50B	2.17B
EBITDA	2.31B	2.25B	2.26B	2.17B	1.89B	1.17B
Net Income	629.03M	617.57M	762.80M	835.66M	618.05M	204.68M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	20.25B	19.82B	17.92B	17.13B	14.70B	13.99B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	111.23M	62.37M	78.40M	78.64M	147.44M	617.29M
Total Debt	8.70B	8.39B	7.02B	7.10B	5.21B	4.89B
Total Liabilities	12.24B	11.96B	10.22B	10.02B	7.71B	7.13B
Stockholders Equity	8.01B	7.86B	7.69B	7.11B	6.99B	6.86B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.18B	1.17B	1.19B	1.11B	953.91M	743.96M
Operating Cash Flow	2.28B	2.23B	2.13B	2.02B	1.70B	1.41B
Investing Cash Flow	-2.43B	-3.16B	-1.58B	-3.09B	-1.69B	-1.05B
Financing Cash Flow	179.85M	944.95M	-544.40M	1.03B	-499.50M	-78.22M

Waste Connections Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 252.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:WCN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 252.06 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 252.00, below the 50-day MA of 260.47, and below the 200-day MA of 260.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.96 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:WCN.

Waste Connections Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	77 Outperform	$65.30B	75.26	7.96%	0.69%	14.23%	-18.94%
SES	76 Outperform	C$3.51B	19.43	16.22%	2.50%	13.51%	-58.43%
GFL	61 Neutral	$23.77B	9.57	-10.02%	0.13%	1.37%	-9742.41%
Sector *	58 Neutral	HK$14.16B	4.57	-3.01%	6.80%	3.67%	-54.16%
BLM	52 Neutral	C$51.29M	1,928.57	0.16%	―	49.38%	-93.75%
ANRG	47 Neutral	C$229.36M	―	105.95%	―	-17.26%	91.10%

Waste Connections Corporate Events

Waste Connections Schedules Q2 2025 Earnings Release and Investor Call

Waste Connections announced it will release its second quarter 2025 financial results on July 23, 2025, followed by an investor conference call on July 24. This announcement highlights the company’s ongoing communication with investors and stakeholders, reinforcing its commitment to transparency and engagement in its financial operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Prices $500 Million Senior Notes Offering

Waste Connections, Inc. announced the pricing of a $500 million public offering of 5.25% Senior Notes due 2035, with the offering expected to close on June 4, 2025. The net proceeds of approximately $495 million will be used to repay a portion of the borrowings under its revolving credit facility, potentially impacting the company’s financial flexibility and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Announces Senior Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Position

Waste Connections announced its intention to offer senior notes in an underwritten public offering, with the proceeds aimed at repaying part of its revolving credit facility. This move is expected to strengthen the company’s financial position, potentially impacting its operational capabilities and market presence positively.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.

Waste Connections Announces Shareholder Meeting Results and Director Elections

Waste Connections announced the results of its Annual Shareholders Meeting, where all eight director nominees were elected. The shareholders approved the compensation of the company’s executive officers and the appointment of Grant Thornton LLP as the independent registered public accounting firm for 2025. These decisions reflect the company’s commitment to strong corporate governance and strategic financial oversight, potentially enhancing its industry positioning and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:WCN) stock is a Buy with a C$206.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Waste Connections stock, see the TSE:WCN Stock Forecast page.