SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.36B
• Dividend Yield: 2.53%
• Average Volume (3M): 747.50K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.23
• Revenue Growth: 3.90%
• EPS Growth: -57.75%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,817
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 219,838,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,099,460
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 747,504
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.73
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.36
• P/FCF Ratio: 10.72
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$17.50
• Price Target Upside: 14.45% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: C$16.00 ▲(4.64% Upside)

The overall stock score reflects financial performance challenges, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow stability. While technical analysis and valuation are neutral, the positive sentiment from the earnings call provides some optimism. The company's strategic initiatives and shareholder returns are positive factors, but financial health concerns weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Earnings Growth

The company is forecast to generate EPS growth of nearly 10% in 2026, with potential to increase to 14.2% if share repurchases are implemented.

Financial Performance

Secure Energy Services delivered solid Q1/25 results, highlighted by a new 10-year Montney contract for a produced water facility.

Shareholder Returns

SES repurchased approximately 9.4 million shares at $14.50 per share, showing a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Negative Factors

Commodity Price Uncertainty

Lack of clarity around steel pricing, combined with expectations for weaker WTI prices and narrow differentials, leads to caution regarding 2025 guidance.

Market Valuation

Downgrade to Market Perform reflects some slowing growth in SES' financial results into 2026, combined with the company's valuation now within the targeted range.

Metal Recycling Business

Metals Recycling business unit, representing 10% of operations, is experiencing negative performance due to ongoing trade issues.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) is an innovative company operating within the environmental services sector, focusing on sustainable waste management solutions. SES specializes in advanced waste processing technologies, recycling systems, and infrastructure development to minimize environmental impact and promote circular economy principles. The company serves municipal, industrial, and commercial clients by offering comprehensive waste management services and cutting-edge facilities for waste treatment and resource recovery.

How the Company Makes Money

SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) generates revenue through a diversified business model that includes service contracts, facility operations, and technology licensing. Key revenue streams include long-term municipal and industrial waste management contracts, fees for processing and recycling waste materials, and consulting services for sustainable infrastructure development. SES also benefits from partnerships with government agencies and private sector entities to develop and manage waste management facilities. Additionally, the company earns revenue by licensing its proprietary waste processing technologies to other waste management operators, further expanding its market reach and impact.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Secure Energy Services demonstrates strong financial performance with improvements in gross and net profit margins, EBIT, and EBITDA margins. Revenue growth has been robust, although there was a slight contraction recently. The balance sheet shows moderate health with increased leverage, but strong cash flow performance indicates effective cash management.

Income Statement

Secure Energy Services shows a strong rebound in financial performance. The TTM gross profit margin is 3.93%, with a net profit margin of 1.90%. Both margins have improved significantly from prior years, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Revenue growth is impressive, with a notable increase from 2020 to 2024, although revenue slightly declined in the TTM period. EBIT and EBITDA margins for TTM are 2.47% and 4.10%, respectively, reflecting solid profitability, albeit with room for improvement.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects moderate financial health. The debt-to-equity ratio in the TTM is 0.73, which is manageable but has increased compared to earlier periods, indicating higher leverage. ROE is 20.33% for the TTM, showcasing efficient use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 40.45%, suggesting a stable capital structure with a balanced approach to leveraging assets.

Cash Flow

Cash flow performance is robust, with a TTM operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.98, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 2.20, highlighting effective cash management and strong free cash flow growth. The company has shown consistent improvement in free cash flow over the years, supporting its financial flexibility.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.34B	10.67B	8.24B	8.00B	3.77B	1.82B
Gross Profit	411.00M	422.00M	512.00M	493.00M	-60.00M	-2.57M
EBITDA	432.00M	931.00M	542.00M	527.00M	-40.00M	60.00M
Net Income	197.00M	582.00M	195.00M	184.00M	-204.00M	-87.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.28B	2.84B	2.84B	2.94B	1.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.00M	26.00M	12.00M	12.00M	10.00M	6.78M
Total Debt	1.00B	454.00M	1.10B	1.03B	1.32B	434.38M
Total Liabilities	1.67B	1.24B	1.66B	1.57B	1.83B	711.08M
Stockholders Equity	817.00M	1.04B	1.19B	1.27B	1.11B	683.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	207.00M	363.00M	227.00M	315.00M	31.00M	77.38M
Operating Cash Flow	357.00M	497.00M	430.00M	411.00M	74.00M	148.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-292.00M	954.00M	-155.00M	-58.00M	-43.00M	-60.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-39.00M	-1.44B	-272.00M	-346.00M	-26.00M	-89.32M

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 15.29
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 15.29 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.99, below the 50-day MA of 15.57, and above the 200-day MA of 14.96, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 18.03 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SES.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	77 Outperform	$66.32B	74.64	7.88%	0.68%	12.84%	-23.50%
GFL	69 Neutral	$25.37B	9.57	-0.03%	0.12%	-5.22%	-129.20%
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.64B	16.01	5.48%	2.12%	2.72%	-24.90%
SES	55 Neutral	C$3.36B	18.24	21.26%	2.53%	3.90%	-57.75%
BLM	50 Neutral	C$50.55M	1,900.00	0.16%	―	49.38%	-93.75%

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corporate Events

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Market Challenges

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting an adjusted EBITDA of $110 million and a 12% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA per share for the first half of 2025. Despite challenges such as seasonal impacts, macroeconomic pressures, and U.S. steel tariffs, the company maintains its full-year EBITDA guidance, supported by higher volumes, pricing, and organic growth projects. The company repurchased 7% of its common shares and returned $286 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, reflecting confidence in its financial stability. SECURE is advancing its 2025 capital program, with key waste infrastructure projects expected to contribute significantly to EBITDA in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SECURE Waste Infrastructure stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. Advances ESG Goals in 2024 Sustainability Report

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant progress in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. The report details achievements such as an 18% reduction in GHG emission intensity since 2021, recovery of 1.2 million barrels of oil from waste, and a 6% reduction in freshwater use. The company has also invested $1.4 million in community initiatives and spent $13.4 million with Indigenous suppliers. SECURE’s efforts in sustainability are underscored by new partnerships and expanded digital platforms, reinforcing its commitment to transforming waste into value and leading in ESG integration.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SECURE Waste Infrastructure stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Announces Dividend and Upcoming Financial Results Release

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 1, 2025. The dividend is classified as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes. Additionally, SECURE will release its 2025 second quarter financial results on July 29, 2025, followed by a conference call to discuss the results. This announcement underscores SECURE’s commitment to providing shareholder value and maintaining transparency with its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

Secure Energy Services Concludes Substantial Issuer Bid

Secure Energy Services has announced the final results of its substantial issuer bid, where it will purchase 9,382,390 shares at $14.50 each, totaling approximately $136 million. This move represents about 4% of the company’s issued shares, and after the buyback, the company will have 221,492,148 shares outstanding. The transaction is expected to impact the company’s share structure and potentially its market positioning, while shareholders are advised to consider tax implications of the deemed dividend from the share repurchase.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

Secure Energy Services Announces $136 Million Share Buyback

Secure Energy Services announced the preliminary results of its substantial issuer bid, expecting to return approximately $136 million to shareholders. The bid, which was undersubscribed, reflects shareholder confidence in the company’s long-term value. Secure plans to purchase 9,382,391 shares at $14.50 each, representing about 4% of its outstanding shares. The company maintains a strong balance sheet and robust cash flows, allowing it to continue prioritizing capital allocation and shareholder returns through additional share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Expands and Extends Credit Facility to Bolster Growth

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has announced an amendment and extension of its Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility, increasing its size from $800 million to $900 million and extending its maturity to May 31, 2028. This expansion is set to enhance SECURE’s financial flexibility, supporting its strategic priorities of disciplined growth and capital returns to shareholders. The amendment reflects the company’s strong financial partnerships and commitment to responsible capital management, positioning SECURE to navigate market conditions and evaluate opportunities for long-term value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.