SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$4.31B
• Dividend Yield: 2.27%
• Average Volume (3M): 430.89K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.3
• Beta (1Y): 1.34
• Revenue Growth: -1.47%
• EPS Growth: -79.68%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,817
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.24
• Shares Outstanding: 216,806,990
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 432,268
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 430,891
• PEG Ratio: -0.41
• Price to Book (P/B): 4.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.62
• P/FCF Ratio: 80.31
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$22.00
• Price Target Upside: 10.61% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.96
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.53B

• Rating: 59 Neutral
• Price Target: C$21.00 ▲(5.58% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/23/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/23/26

The score is held back primarily by mid-range financial quality (higher leverage and weaker recent cash flow/cash conversion despite improved margins). Technicals are supportive with an established uptrend, but overbought indicators raise near-term risk. Valuation is a notable drag due to the high P/E, while the earnings call was a positive offset on improving 2026 EBITDA guidance and shareholder return plans despite identifiable macro, metals, and litigation risks.

Positive Factors

Platform scale & recurring volumes

Large, infrastructure-backed throughput across produced water, liquid and solid waste (terminals and pipelines) creates durable, contract-like cash flows and high fixed-cost recovery. Scale raises barriers to entry, supports margin stability, and gives multi-year visibility into base revenues and networked logistics.

Upward EBITDA guidance

Management's upward 2026 adjusted-EBITDA guidance signals structural operational improvement and capacity to convert investments into earnings. Sustained EBITDA growth supports reinvestment, debt servicing and dividend/buyback programs, strengthening the company’s ability to execute longer-term strategic plans.

Disciplined capital returns

Consistent buybacks and a dividend raise reflect disciplined capital allocation and the ability to generate distributable cash. Long-term, steady returns align management with shareholders, reduce share count, and signal confidence in sustainable free cash flow generation and balance-sheet planning.

Negative Factors

Rising leverage

Material increase in leverage meaningfully reduces financial flexibility and raises interest-rate and refinancing sensitivity. Higher debt amplifies downside risk from operational shocks, limits capacity for opportunistic M&A or capex without further borrowing, and tightens covenant and liquidity buffers over the medium term.

Weakened cash conversion

Sharp decline in cash generation versus prior year reduces internal funding for growth, deleveraging and returns. Lower FCF conversion of earnings increases reliance on external financing for capex and buybacks, narrowing margin for error if volumes or margins slip and slowing long-term balance-sheet repair.

Tariff & litigation exposure

Structural headwinds from tariffs forced logistics and market reorientation, reducing metals profitability and requiring capital to reposition volumes. Concurrent patent litigation with a possible ~$100M payout is a material contingent liability that could impair cash and earnings, increasing execution and legal risk.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp., an energy services company, provides solutions to upstream oil and natural gas companies operating primarily in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the United States. It operates through two segments, Midstream Infrastructure, and Environmental and Fluid Management. The company's Midstream Infrastructure segment provides services, such as clean oil terminalling, rail transloading, pipeline transportation, marketing and custom treating of crude oil, produced and waste water disposal, oilfield waste processing, and purchase/resale of oil services through its full service terminals, rail facilities, crude oil pipelines, crude oil terminalling facilities, water disposal facilities, and landfills. The Environmental and Fluid Management segment includes a network of owned, operated, and marketed industrial landfills, hazardous and non-hazardous waste management and disposal, onsite abandonment, and environmental solutions for site remediation and reclamation, bio-remediation, water treatment and recycling, emergency response, rail, and metal recycling services, as well as offers fluid management for drilling, completion, and production operations for oil and gas producers. This segment also designs and implements drilling fluid systems for producers drilling for oil, bitumen, and natural gas; provides naturally occurring radioactive material management services, as well as equipment and chemical solutions that optimize well production. Secure Energy Services Inc. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

SES generates revenue through multiple channels, including service fees for waste collection and disposal, recycling operations, and landfill operations. The company charges municipalities and businesses for waste management services, which includes regular collection schedules and on-demand services. Additionally, SES profits from the sale of recycled materials and byproducts generated from its recycling facilities. Strategic partnerships with local governments and industries enhance its revenue streams, as SES often enters long-term contracts for waste management services, providing a stable income base. Furthermore, SES may benefit from government incentives and grants aimed at promoting sustainable waste management practices, contributing to its overall earnings.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Profitability improved with solid 2025 margins, but revenue and net income were volatile. Balance-sheet risk rose sharply as leverage increased (debt-to-equity ~1.45 in 2025 vs ~0.44 in 2024), and cash generation deteriorated with a steep drop in free cash flow and weaker cash conversion.

Income Statement

Profitability has improved meaningfully versus the 2020–2021 loss period, with solid recent margins in 2025 (gross margin ~27%, EBITDA margin ~32%, net margin ~8%). However, results are volatile: revenue swings sharply (including a very large decline reported in 2025), and net income dropped from 2024 to 2025 despite better margins. Overall, the business shows good earnings power in the latest year, but the growth trajectory is uneven and raises predictability risk.

Balance Sheet

Leverage increased materially in the most recent year: debt-to-equity moved up to ~1.45 in 2025 from ~0.44 in 2024, indicating a much heavier debt load relative to the equity base. While equity remains positive, the rising leverage reduces balance-sheet flexibility and increases sensitivity to operational hiccups or tighter financing conditions.

Cash Flow

Cash generation weakened in 2025: operating cash flow fell (to $273M from $497M in 2024) and free cash flow compressed sharply (to $48M from $363M), with negative free cash flow growth. Cash conversion also looks weaker, with free cash flow covering only ~18% of net income in 2025 versus ~73% in 2024, suggesting less of the earnings are translating into spendable cash.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.47B	10.67B	8.24B	8.00B	3.77B
Gross Profit	404.00M	405.00M	491.00M	470.00M	187.00M
EBITDA	475.00M	941.00M	556.00M	527.00M	-40.00M
Net Income	123.00M	582.00M	195.00M	184.00M	-203.00M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.53B	2.28B	2.84B	2.84B	2.94B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	22.00M	26.00M	12.00M	12.00M	10.00M
Total Debt	1.15B	454.00M	1.10B	1.03B	1.32B
Total Liabilities	1.74B	1.24B	1.66B	1.57B	1.83B
Stockholders Equity	792.00M	1.04B	1.19B	1.27B	1.11B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	48.00M	363.00M	227.00M	315.00M	14.00M
Operating Cash Flow	273.00M	497.00M	430.00M	411.00M	57.00M
Investing Cash Flow	-365.00M	954.00M	-155.00M	-58.00M	-43.00M
Financing Cash Flow	90.00M	-1.44B	-272.00M	-346.00M	-9.00M

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 19.89
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.89 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.94, above the 50-day MA of 17.93, and above the 200-day MA of 17.07, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.49 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 65.40 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SES.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFL	67 Neutral	$21.93B	5.68	3.82%	0.14%	-10.87%	-168.62%
WCN	64 Neutral	$59.62B	41.90	13.37%	0.75%	10.49%	-32.11%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SES	59 Neutral	C$4.31B	31.34	11.37%	2.27%	-1.47%	-79.68%
ANRG	54 Neutral	C$387.87M	51.19	―	―	28.43%	80.34%
BLM	44 Neutral	C$54.59M	-243.45	-3.01%	―	63.49%	-133.70%

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corporate Events

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Lifts Dividend After Strong 2025 Results and Higher 2026 Guidance

SECURE Waste Infrastructure reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $501 million on revenue of $1.47 billion, highlighting the resilience of its infrastructure-backed business amid softer commodity prices and metals recycling headwinds. The company generated strong free cash flow, invested $138 million in organic growth projects including new produced water disposal facilities and an industrial waste plant reopening, and ended the year with a total debt to adjusted EBITDA ratio of 2.1x, preserving balance-sheet flexibility.

Management issued 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520 million to $550 million and announced a 5% increase to its quarterly dividend to $0.105 per share, reinforcing confidence in cash flow durability and shareholder returns. In 2025 SECURE returned $373 million to investors via dividends and repurchasing 8% of its outstanding shares, while advancing long-cycle, contracted infrastructure projects that are expected to support future earnings growth and strengthen its competitive position in waste and energy infrastructure services.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Buy with a C$23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SECURE Waste Infrastructure stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure lifts dividend as 2025 earnings grow and 2026 outlook strengthened

SECURE Waste Infrastructure reported 2025 revenue of $1.47 billion and net income of $123 million, with Adjusted EBITDA rising to $501 million despite softer commodity prices and headwinds in metals recycling. The company generated strong discretionary free cash flow of $273 million and deployed $138 million in organic growth capital, exceeding earlier plans as customer demand accelerated and project scopes expanded.

In the fourth quarter, SECURE delivered $372 million in revenue, $53 million in net income and a 15% year-over-year increase in Adjusted EBITDA to $135 million, supported by robust funds flow from operations. The firm advanced key infrastructure projects, including new produced water disposal facilities in the Montney region and the reopening of an industrial waste plant in Alberta, while returning $373 million to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks and securing board approval for a 5% dividend increase alongside 2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520–$550 million.

SECURE ended 2025 with a Total Debt to Adjusted EBITDA covenant ratio of 2.1x, or 1.8x excluding leases, highlighting balance sheet flexibility to fund further growth and selective tuck-in acquisitions. The company also refinanced part of its capital structure by issuing $300 million of 5.75% senior unsecured notes due 2032 to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility, supporting its strategy of disciplined capital allocation and continued shareholder returns.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Buy with a C$23.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SECURE Waste Infrastructure stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.