Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp. (TSE:SES)
TSX:SES
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SECURE Waste Infrastructure
(TSX:SES)
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Rating:63Neutral
Price Target:
C$24.00
▲(6.19% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker near-term financial quality signals (problematic TTM revenue/margins, negative recent free cash flow, and rising leverage). Offsetting this, technicals are supportive with the stock trading above key longer-term averages, and the latest earnings call was constructive with higher 2026 EBITDA guidance and continued capital returns. Valuation remains a moderate drag due to the elevated P/E despite the dividend.
Positive Factors
Scale & Recurring Volumes
Large, diversified throughput across produced water, liquid and solid waste indicates durable fee-for-service revenue. Infrastructure-backed volumes reduce per-unit costs, support steady utilization and margin preservation, and make cash flows less sensitive to single-site disruptions over months.
Negative Factors
TTM Revenue & Margin Deterioration
The recent TTM swing to negative revenue and margins undermines earnings quality. This volatility—potentially from disposals or operational setbacks—reduces predictability of fee-based cash flows and complicates medium-term planning for capex, dividends and debt servicing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Scale & Recurring Volumes
Large, diversified throughput across produced water, liquid and solid waste indicates durable fee-for-service revenue. Infrastructure-backed volumes reduce per-unit costs, support steady utilization and margin preservation, and make cash flows less sensitive to single-site disruptions over months.
Read all positive factors
SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.70B
Dividend Yield2.27%
Average Volume (3M)1.25M
Price to Earnings (P/E)33.9
Beta (1Y)0.88
Revenue Growth-45.36%
EPS Growth-33.50%
CountryCA
Employees1,817
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.55
Shares Outstanding216,806,990
10 Day Avg. Volume819,600
30 Day Avg. Volume1,246,777
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.41
Price to Book (P/B)4.87
Price to Sales (P/S)2.62
P/FCF Ratio80.31
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$23.56Price Target Upside4.26% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)0.82
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.53B
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp., an energy services company, provides solutions to upstream oil and natural gas companies operating primarily in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the United States. It operates through two segments, Midstrea...
How the Company Makes Money
SECURE makes money primarily by charging customers fees to manage industrial waste and by monetizing recovered or recycled materials from those waste streams. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Processing, treatment, and disposal fees: cus...
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 20, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call conveyed a generally positive tone: management emphasized resilience and durable, infrastructure-backed cash flows, delivered year-over-year adjusted EBITDA growth, strong cash generation, significant shareholder returns (dividends and buybacks), successful project commissioning and a constructive 2026 adjusted EBITDA guide. Notable challenges were discussed, including metal recycling disruption from U.S. tariffs (with an estimated 10–15% EBITDA impact), modest decline in discretionary free cash flow due to higher interest and taxes, volume softness in some service lines tied to lower commodity prices, inventory/logistics constraints in metals and an unresolved patent litigation with a potential ~$100 million claim. Overall, the positive items (stable recurring cash flows, balance sheet strength, project execution, shareholder returns and upward guidance) materially outweigh the headwinds, though management acknowledged several execution and macro risks that could influence near-term outcomes.Positive Updates
Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Quarterly Outperformance
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $501 million, representing approximately 5% year-over-year pro forma growth. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $135 million, up 15% year-over-year and up 24% on a per-share basis versus the prior-year quarter.
Negative Updates
Metal Recycling Headwinds from U.S. Tariff
Implementation of a U.S. 50% tariff on finished steel significantly reduced domestic Canadian demand, forcing a rapid repositioning of volumes to U.S. markets. The transition required building new customer relationships, expanding rail capacity and working through inventory and transportation constraints; metals EBITDA was estimated to be negatively impacted roughly 10–15% in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Full-Year Adjusted EBITDA Growth and Quarterly Outperformance
Full-year adjusted EBITDA of $501 million, representing approximately 5% year-over-year pro forma growth. Fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA was $135 million, up 15% year-over-year and up 24% on a per-share basis versus the prior-year quarter.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
SECURE guided 2026 adjusted EBITDA of $520–$550 million (midpoint ≈ $535M, ~ $34–35M above 2025’s $501M) and said Q1 should be broadly consistent with Q4 2025 (Q4 revenue $372M, adjusted EBITDA $135M, funds flow $118M, discretionary free cash flow $84M); they expect to spend at least $75M of organic growth capital in 2026 (with ability to build on that), roughly $10M of metals‑recycling investments (pre‑shredder/railcars), and to continue selective tuck‑in M&A and opportunistic buybacks, while targeting >50% discretionary FCF conversion, cash taxes likely not above ~$60M, a 5% dividend increase to $0.42/share annualized beginning Q2 2026, and preserving financial flexibility (total debt/adjusted EBITDA 2.1x; 1.8x excl. leases; $300M senior notes due 2032); for context, FY2025 funds flow was $378M, DFCF $273M, and they returned $373M to shareholders in 2025, repurchasing nearly 19M shares (~8% of float) at an average < $15 and 1.1M shares at $17.10 since renewing the NCIB.SECURE Waste Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
54
Neutral
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | -844.00M | 1.47B | 10.67B | 8.24B | 8.00B | 3.77B |
| Gross Profit | 401.00M | 404.00M | 405.00M | 491.00M | 470.00M | 187.00M |
| EBITDA | 477.00M | 475.00M | 941.00M | 556.00M | 527.00M | -40.00M |
| Net Income | 120.00M | 123.00M | 582.00M | 195.00M | 184.00M | -203.00M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.86B | 2.53B | 2.28B | 2.84B | 2.84B | 2.94B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 90.00M | 22.00M | 26.00M | 12.00M | 12.00M | 10.00M |
| Total Debt | 1.18B | 1.15B | 454.00M | 1.10B | 1.03B | 1.32B |
| Total Liabilities | 2.09B | 1.74B | 1.24B | 1.66B | 1.57B | 1.83B |
| Stockholders Equity | 777.00M | 792.00M | 1.04B | 1.19B | 1.27B | 1.11B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -42.00M | 48.00M | 363.00M | 227.00M | 315.00M | 14.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 185.00M | 273.00M | 497.00M | 430.00M | 411.00M | 57.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -228.00M | -365.00M | 954.00M | -155.00M | -58.00M | -43.00M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 84.00M | 90.00M | -1.44B | -272.00M | -346.00M | -9.00M |
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Technical Analysis
Neutral
22.60
Price Trends
21.93
Negative
19.94
Positive
18.66
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.07
Positive
44.79
Neutral
65.16
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SES, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 22.6 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 22.31, above the 50-day MA of 21.93, and above the 200-day MA of 18.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.79 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.16 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:SES.
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$54.81B | 48.08 | 12.93% | 0.75% | 5.20% | 68.52% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | C$4.70B | 33.92 | 15.18% | 2.27% | -45.36% | -33.50% | |
56 Neutral | C$18.04B | -24.11 | 3.01% | 0.14% | -12.09% | ― | |
53 Neutral | C$558.05M | -63.76 | -14.47% | ― | 88.73% | ― | |
42 Neutral | C$45.57M | -243.45 | -12.79% | ― | 71.07% | -1287.10% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:SES
SECURE Waste Infrastructure
21.70
7.76
55.70%
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
215.72
-53.54
-19.88%
TSE:BLM
BluMetric Environmental
0.83
-0.63
-43.15%
TSE:BQE
BQE Water
86.00
39.00
82.98%
TSE:GFL
GFL Environmental
50.39
-18.32
-26.66%
TSE:ANRG
Anaergia
3.25
1.98
155.91%
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
GFL to Acquire SECURE Waste Infrastructure in $6.4 Billion Deal to Expand Western Canadian Reach
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. has agreed to acquire all outstanding shares of SECURE Waste Infrastructure in a deal valuing the target at about $6.4 billion, paid as 80% GFL subordinate voting shares and 20% cash at $24.75 per SECURE share, a 23% premium...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
SECURE Waste Infrastructure Lifts Dividend After Strong 2025 Results and Higher 2026 Guidance
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
SECURE Waste Infrastructure reported full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $501 million on revenue of $1.47 billion, highlighting the resilience of its infrastructure-backed business amid softer commodity prices and metals recycling headwinds. The com...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
SECURE Waste Infrastructure lifts dividend as 2025 earnings grow and 2026 outlook strengthened
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
SECURE Waste Infrastructure reported 2025 revenue of $1.47 billion and net income of $123 million, with Adjusted EBITDA rising to $501 million despite softer commodity prices and headwinds in metals recycling. The company generated strong discreti...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.