SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.64B
• Dividend Yield: 2.4%
• Average Volume (3M): 796.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 19.7
• Beta (1Y): 1.21
• Revenue Growth: 3.90%
• EPS Growth: -57.75%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,817
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 219,838,710
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 657,301
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 796,662
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$17.50
• Price Target Upside: 4.85% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 6

• Rating: 55 Neutral
• Price Target: C$16.00 ▼(-4.13% Downside)

The overall stock score reflects financial performance challenges, particularly in revenue growth and cash flow stability. While technical analysis and valuation are neutral, the positive sentiment from the earnings call provides some optimism. The company's strategic initiatives and shareholder returns are positive factors, but financial health concerns weigh heavily on the score.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

The financial outlook includes an attractive EBITDA to FCF conversion of 31% and a forecasted ROE of 21% for 2025-2026.

Share Repurchases

SES repurchased approximately 9.4 million shares at $14.50 per share, showing a strong commitment to returning capital to shareholders.

Shareholder Returns

Shareholder returns program remains best in class, supported by a steady dividend and ongoing share repurchases.

Negative Factors

Business Segment Performance

Metals Recycling business unit, representing 10% of operations, is experiencing negative performance due to ongoing trade issues.

Guidance Risks

There is concern about the company's reliance on a heavier 4Q25 EBITDA weighting, which adds a layer of risk to achieving guidance.

Market Downgrade

Downgrade to Market Perform reflects some slowing growth in SES' financial results into 2026, combined with the company's valuation now within the targeted range.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Secure Waste Infrastructure Corp., an energy services company, provides solutions to upstream oil and natural gas companies operating primarily in Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin and the United States. It operates through two segments, Midstream Infrastructure, and Environmental and Fluid Management. The company's Midstream Infrastructure segment provides services, such as clean oil terminalling, rail transloading, pipeline transportation, marketing and custom treating of crude oil, produced and waste water disposal, oilfield waste processing, and purchase/resale of oil services through its full service terminals, rail facilities, crude oil pipelines, crude oil terminalling facilities, water disposal facilities, and landfills. The Environmental and Fluid Management segment includes a network of owned, operated, and marketed industrial landfills, hazardous and non-hazardous waste management and disposal, onsite abandonment, and environmental solutions for site remediation and reclamation, bio-remediation, water treatment and recycling, emergency response, rail, and metal recycling services, as well as offers fluid management for drilling, completion, and production operations for oil and gas producers. This segment also designs and implements drilling fluid systems for producers drilling for oil, bitumen, and natural gas; provides naturally occurring radioactive material management services, as well as equipment and chemical solutions that optimize well production. Secure Energy Services Inc. is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

SECURE Waste Infrastructure (SES) generates revenue through a diversified business model that includes service contracts, facility operations, and technology licensing. Key revenue streams include long-term municipal and industrial waste management contracts, fees for processing and recycling waste materials, and consulting services for sustainable infrastructure development. SES also benefits from partnerships with government agencies and private sector entities to develop and manage waste management facilities. Additionally, the company earns revenue by licensing its proprietary waste processing technologies to other waste management operators, further expanding its market reach and impact.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SECURE Waste Infrastructure faces challenges in revenue growth and profitability, with declining margins and high leverage. The significant decline in free cash flow growth and moderate cash flow ratios suggest potential liquidity issues. The financial health of the company appears to be under pressure, requiring strategic improvements to enhance profitability and cash flow stability.

Income Statement

SECURE Waste Infrastructure's income statement shows a declining revenue trend with a negative growth rate of -0.796% in the TTM period. Gross profit and net profit margins are relatively low at 3.97% and 1.90%, respectively, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have also decreased, reflecting operational inefficiencies. Despite past revenue growth, recent performance suggests potential risks in sustaining profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 1.23 in the TTM period, indicating significant leverage. Return on equity is at 20.28%, showing some efficiency in generating returns from equity. However, the equity ratio is not provided, limiting a full assessment of asset financing. The high leverage poses a risk, but the company has managed to maintain a reasonable ROE.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates a significant decline in free cash flow growth at -52.41% in the TTM period, raising concerns about cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is 0.68, suggesting moderate cash flow efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 0.58, indicating that not all net income is translating into free cash flow. These metrics highlight potential liquidity challenges.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	10.34B	10.67B	8.24B	8.00B	3.77B	1.82B
Gross Profit	411.00M	422.00M	512.00M	493.00M	-60.00M	-2.57M
EBITDA	432.00M	931.00M	542.00M	527.00M	-40.00M	60.00M
Net Income	197.00M	582.00M	195.00M	184.00M	-204.00M	-87.19M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.48B	2.28B	2.84B	2.84B	2.94B	1.42B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	31.00M	26.00M	12.00M	12.00M	10.00M	6.78M
Total Debt	1.00B	454.00M	1.10B	1.03B	1.32B	434.38M
Total Liabilities	1.67B	1.24B	1.66B	1.57B	1.83B	711.08M
Stockholders Equity	817.00M	1.04B	1.19B	1.27B	1.11B	683.70M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	207.00M	363.00M	227.00M	315.00M	31.00M	77.38M
Operating Cash Flow	357.00M	497.00M	430.00M	411.00M	74.00M	148.72M
Investing Cash Flow	-292.00M	954.00M	-155.00M	-58.00M	-43.00M	-60.06M
Financing Cash Flow	-39.00M	-1.44B	-272.00M	-346.00M	-26.00M	-89.32M

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.69
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SES, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.69 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.46, above the 50-day MA of 16.10, and above the 200-day MA of 15.08, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 59.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 57.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SES.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	64 Neutral	$10.75B	15.57	7.24%	2.01%	2.80%	-14.32%
SES	55 Neutral	C$3.64B	19.75	21.26%	2.40%	3.90%	-57.75%
WCN	―	$46.34B	72.17	7.88%	0.71%	―	―
BLM	52 Neutral	C$51.29M	1,685.71	-3.01%	―	63.49%	-133.70%
BQE	―	C$74.63M	8.29	42.36%	―	―	―
GFL	―	$17.43B	10.03	-0.03%	0.12%	―	―
VTX	―	C$25.77M	―	-18.39%	―	―	―

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corporate Events

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results Amid Market Challenges

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting an adjusted EBITDA of $110 million and a 12% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA per share for the first half of 2025. Despite challenges such as seasonal impacts, macroeconomic pressures, and U.S. steel tariffs, the company maintains its full-year EBITDA guidance, supported by higher volumes, pricing, and organic growth projects. The company repurchased 7% of its common shares and returned $286 million to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, reflecting confidence in its financial stability. SECURE is advancing its 2025 capital program, with key waste infrastructure projects expected to contribute significantly to EBITDA in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SECURE Waste Infrastructure stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. Advances ESG Goals in 2024 Sustainability Report

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant progress in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) goals. The report details achievements such as an 18% reduction in GHG emission intensity since 2021, recovery of 1.2 million barrels of oil from waste, and a 6% reduction in freshwater use. The company has also invested $1.4 million in community initiatives and spent $13.4 million with Indigenous suppliers. SECURE’s efforts in sustainability are underscored by new partnerships and expanded digital platforms, reinforcing its commitment to transforming waste into value and leading in ESG integration.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on SECURE Waste Infrastructure stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Announces Dividend and Upcoming Financial Results Release

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has announced a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per common share, payable on July 15, 2025, to shareholders of record as of July 1, 2025. The dividend is classified as an eligible dividend for Canadian tax purposes. Additionally, SECURE will release its 2025 second quarter financial results on July 29, 2025, followed by a conference call to discuss the results. This announcement underscores SECURE’s commitment to providing shareholder value and maintaining transparency with its stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

Secure Energy Services Concludes Substantial Issuer Bid

Secure Energy Services has announced the final results of its substantial issuer bid, where it will purchase 9,382,390 shares at $14.50 each, totaling approximately $136 million. This move represents about 4% of the company’s issued shares, and after the buyback, the company will have 221,492,148 shares outstanding. The transaction is expected to impact the company’s share structure and potentially its market positioning, while shareholders are advised to consider tax implications of the deemed dividend from the share repurchase.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

Secure Energy Services Announces $136 Million Share Buyback

Secure Energy Services announced the preliminary results of its substantial issuer bid, expecting to return approximately $136 million to shareholders. The bid, which was undersubscribed, reflects shareholder confidence in the company’s long-term value. Secure plans to purchase 9,382,391 shares at $14.50 each, representing about 4% of its outstanding shares. The company maintains a strong balance sheet and robust cash flows, allowing it to continue prioritizing capital allocation and shareholder returns through additional share buybacks.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.

SECURE Expands and Extends Credit Facility to Bolster Growth

SECURE Waste Infrastructure Corp. has announced an amendment and extension of its Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility, increasing its size from $800 million to $900 million and extending its maturity to May 31, 2028. This expansion is set to enhance SECURE’s financial flexibility, supporting its strategic priorities of disciplined growth and capital returns to shareholders. The amendment reflects the company’s strong financial partnerships and commitment to responsible capital management, positioning SECURE to navigate market conditions and evaluate opportunities for long-term value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SES) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Secure Energy Services stock, see the TSE:SES Stock Forecast page.