GFL Environmental (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $23.69B
• Dividend Yield: 0.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 382.55K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.43
• Revenue Growth: -5.22%
• EPS Growth: -129.20%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 73
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.26
• Shares Outstanding: 351,531,860
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 520,735
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 382,551
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.42
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.65
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 23.30
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 17.16
• 1Y Price Target: $78.44
• Price Target Upside: 18.25% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: C$67.00 ▲(1.01% Upside)

GFL Environmental's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and strategic execution, offset by weak financial performance and valuation concerns. The company's resilience in the face of external challenges and successful M&A strategy are positive, but high debt levels and negative profitability metrics pose significant risks.

GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GFL Environmental Inc. is a leading North American provider of diversified environmental solutions. The company operates in multiple sectors, including solid waste management, liquid waste management, and infrastructure services. GFL is dedicated to providing efficient and sustainable waste management services, offering a broad range of solutions such as collection, recycling, and disposal to residential, commercial, and industrial clients.

How the Company Makes Money

GFL Environmental generates revenue through its comprehensive waste management services. The company's primary revenue streams include fees for waste collection and disposal services provided to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Additionally, GFL earns income from recycling operations by selling recovered materials to manufacturers and processors. The company also benefits from infrastructure services, such as soil remediation and excavation. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance GFL's market presence and contribute to its earnings by expanding its service offerings and geographical reach.

GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GFL Environmental exhibits promising growth with consistent revenue increases and strong EBITDA margins, despite operational challenges indicated by negative EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, but the high ROE may be unsustainable. Cash flows are robust yet volatile, highlighting the need for future cash flow stability.

Income Statement

GFL Environmental has shown a consistent increase in revenue over the years, indicative of solid growth in the waste management industry. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at approximately 19.37%, with a net profit margin significantly impacted by a large net income figure due to unusual or non-operational gains. However, the EBIT margin is negative in the TTM, indicating operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 14.99%, reflecting strong operational cash generation capabilities.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93x in the TTM, which implies a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is approximately 41.34%, showcasing a healthy proportion of equity financing. However, the return on equity is substantially high at 35.53% due to the large net income figure, suggesting potential one-time gains rather than sustainable operational performance.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio in the TTM, indicating strong cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been volatile, which could pose risks to long-term cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.24B	7.86B	7.52B	6.76B	5.14B	4.20B
Gross Profit	1.44B	1.46B	1.26B	823.40M	498.80M	164.60M
EBITDA	1.96B	1.22B	2.33B	1.63B	1.09B	303.80M
Net Income	-1.73B	-722.70M	45.40M	-311.80M	-606.80M	-1.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.53B	21.21B	19.88B	19.77B	18.40B	15.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	139.70M	133.80M	135.70M	82.10M	190.40M	27.20M
Total Debt	7.21B	10.55B	9.29B	9.68B	9.63B	7.79B
Total Liabilities	10.64B	13.99B	12.49B	13.72B	12.62B	10.16B
Stockholders Equity	7.66B	6.98B	7.18B	6.04B	5.78B	5.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	190.10M	347.20M	-74.70M	331.10M	250.70M	73.90M
Operating Cash Flow	1.39B	1.54B	980.40M	1.10B	897.90M	502.20M
Investing Cash Flow	4.33B	-1.68B	-310.40M	-1.73B	-2.69B	-4.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.69B	163.20M	-602.80M	569.00M	1.96B	3.34B

GFL Environmental Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 66.33
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 68.65, below the 50-day MA of 67.33, and below the 200-day MA of 66.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 4.72 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFL.

GFL Environmental Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.73B	15.32	7.37%	2.01%	2.86%	-14.57%
GFL	52 Neutral	$23.69B	9.57	-0.03%	0.12%	-5.22%	-129.20%
WCN	―	$45.76B	71.80	7.88%	0.71%	―	―
BLM	52 Neutral	C$50.18M	1,685.71	-3.01%	―	63.49%	-133.70%
BQE	―	C$74.63M	8.29	42.36%	―	―	―
SES	55 Neutral	C$3.67B	19.89	21.26%	2.44%	3.90%	-57.75%
VTX	―	C$26.33M	―	-18.39%	―	―	―

GFL Environmental Corporate Events

GFL Environmental Declares Q2 2025 Dividend

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on July 31, 2025, to shareholders recorded by July 14, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence its market positioning positively by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the release date for its second quarter financial results for 2025, which will be made public after market close on July 30, 2025. The company will also host an investor conference call on July 31, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating a commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.