GFL Environmental (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$22.18B
• Dividend Yield: 0.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 422.24K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 5.7
• Beta (1Y): 0.25
• Revenue Growth: -10.87%
• EPS Growth: -168.62%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 346,110,320
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 434,680
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 422,241
• PEG Ratio: >-0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.98
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.29
• P/FCF Ratio: 57.10
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$78.94
• Price Target Upside: 29.20% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 12
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.91
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$7.03B

• Rating: 67 Neutral
• Price Target: C$64.00 ▲(4.75% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/18/26

The score is driven by solid underlying cash generation and a favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), supported by a positive earnings-call backdrop with raised guidance and record margins. These are tempered by high leverage and mixed earnings quality/recent revenue decline, plus weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD).

Positive Factors

Recurring, integrated revenue streams

GFL’s core model is recurring contract-based waste collection plus owned disposal and processing assets. Vertical integration (collection to landfill/MRF) and municipal/commercial contracts create predictable cash flows, pricing pass-throughs and route density advantages that sustain earnings resilience.

Improving cash generation

Operating cash flow growth and improved free cash flow underpin the business’s ability to fund capex, acquisitions and capital returns without reliance on equity. Durable cash conversion supports balance sheet repair and strategic M&A, reducing execution risk over the medium term.

Higher margins and raised guidance

Sustained margin expansion from pricing and cost management, coupled with management raising guidance, indicates improved operational leverage. Higher, repeatable EBITDA margins bolster cash flow stability and provide room for reinvestment and debt reduction over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Elevated leverage

Material debt loads amplify downside risk if volumes or pricing weaken. Elevated leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate exposure, constrains flexibility for M&A or capex, and raises the stakes on sustaining cash flow and margins to meet obligations over the medium term.

Recent revenue decline

After multi-year scaling, a year-over-year revenue drop undermines the stability of margins and the company’s ability to deleverage. Inconsistent top-line growth makes long-term planning harder and raises reliance on pricing, M&A and cost cuts to sustain profits over the coming quarters.

Earnings quality volatility

Earnings driven in part by one-time or non-operating items and a weak correlation to cash flow reduce predictability. This variability complicates credit metrics and investor assessment of sustainable profitability, increasing refinancing and covenant risk across planning horizons.

GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GFL Environmental Inc. operates as a diversified environmental services company in Canada and the United States. The company offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its solid waste management business line includes the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste for municipal, residential, and commercial and industrial customers. The company's infrastructure and soil remediation business line provides remediation of contaminated soils, as well as complementary services, including civil, demolition, and excavation and shoring services. Its liquid waste management business collects, manages, transports, processes, and disposes of a range of industrial and commercial liquid wastes, as well as resells liquid waste products. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vaughan, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

GFL Environmental generates revenue primarily through its solid waste and liquid waste management services. The company charges customers for waste collection and disposal services, which include fees for residential, commercial, and industrial waste collection. Additionally, GFL earns revenue from recycling operations by processing recyclable materials and selling them to markets. Infrastructure services, such as landfill operations and environmental remediation projects, also contribute to the company's earnings. GFL has established significant partnerships with municipalities and large corporations, providing long-term contracts that ensure a steady revenue stream. The company's focus on expanding its service offerings and geographic footprint through acquisitions further enhances its revenue-generating capabilities.

GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Cash generation is the strongest pillar (consistently positive and growing operating cash flow; improved free cash flow), but fundamentals are uneven: 2025 revenue declined vs. 2024 and net income has been volatile, with 2025 profitability likely influenced by non-operating items. Leverage remains elevated despite some debt reduction, which adds risk if conditions soften.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled materially since 2020, but the most recent annual period shows a decline (2025 revenue down vs. 2024). Profitability has improved versus earlier loss years (2020–2022 and 2024), with positive operating profit and solid EBITDA margins in 2025, but results are volatile: 2024 swung to a sizable net loss and 2025 shows an unusually high net profit margin that appears driven by non-operating items rather than steady operating performance. Overall: improving operating profile, but earnings quality and growth consistency are mixed.

Balance Sheet

Leverage remains elevated for the sector, with debt consistently exceeding equity (debt-to-equity roughly ~1.15–1.67 across the periods). The company has reduced total debt from 2024 to 2025, which is a positive step, and equity has been relatively stable to rising versus earlier years. Still, the balance sheet is meaningfully debt-funded, which can amplify risk if volumes/pricing soften or refinancing costs rise.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is consistently positive and has grown significantly from 2020 levels, supporting the business’s underlying cash-generating ability. Free cash flow is generally positive (with a dip negative in 2023) and shows strong growth in 2025, indicating improving cash conversion. A key watch item is that cash flow does not always track reported earnings well (e.g., 2025 free cash flow is modest relative to net income), suggesting earnings volatility and/or one-time items.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.62B	7.86B	7.52B	6.76B	5.14B
Gross Profit	1.37B	1.46B	1.26B	823.40M	498.80M
EBITDA	1.72B	1.22B	2.33B	1.63B	1.09B
Net Income	3.83B	-722.70M	45.40M	-311.80M	-606.80M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.30B	21.21B	19.88B	19.77B	18.40B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	85.60M	133.80M	135.70M	82.10M	190.40M
Total Debt	8.38B	10.55B	9.29B	9.68B	9.63B
Total Liabilities	11.81B	13.99B	12.49B	13.72B	12.62B
Stockholders Equity	7.30B	6.98B	7.18B	6.04B	5.78B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	381.60M	347.20M	-74.70M	331.10M	250.70M
Operating Cash Flow	1.52B	1.54B	980.40M	1.10B	897.90M
Investing Cash Flow	3.72B	-1.68B	-310.40M	-1.73B	-2.69B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.28B	163.20M	-602.80M	569.00M	1.96B

GFL Environmental Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 61.10
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 61.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 58.91, above the 50-day MA of 59.14, and below the 200-day MA of 63.94, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.39 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 88.88 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GFL.

GFL Environmental Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
GFL	67 Neutral	C$22.18B	5.68	3.82%	0.14%	-10.87%	-168.62%
WCN	64 Neutral	C$59.23B	41.90	13.37%	0.75%	10.49%	-32.11%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SES	59 Neutral	C$4.31B	31.34	11.37%	2.27%	-1.47%	-79.68%
ANRG	54 Neutral	C$368.99M	51.19	―	―	28.43%	80.34%
ECM	41 Neutral	C$40.82M	-5.91	-1787.47%	―	135.68%	68.99%

GFL Environmental Corporate Events

GFL Environmental Reschedules Q4 Call to Align With 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance Release

GFL Environmental Inc., a major North American diversified environmental services provider specializing in solid waste management, operates an extensive platform of facilities across Canada and 18 U.S. states with over 15,000 employees. The company announced it has rescheduled its fourth-quarter conference call to February 11, 2026 at 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time, aligning the call with the planned release of its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 financial results and 2026 guidance after market close that same day, and detailed access information for investors to participate via webcast or phone, underscoring the importance of the upcoming disclosure for shareholders and analysts tracking its performance and outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Sets Date for 2025 Results Release and 2026 Guidance Call

GFL Environmental Inc. will release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results along with its 2026 guidance after markets close on February 11, 2026, followed by an investor conference call on February 12, 2026. The scheduled disclosure and call underscore the company’s ongoing engagement with investors and analysts, offering stakeholders a key opportunity to assess GFL’s recent performance and outlook within the North American environmental services and solid waste management market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Raises US$1 Billion in Oversubscribed Senior Notes Offering to Fund Growth

GFL Environmental Inc. has priced a significantly oversubscribed private offering of US$1 billion in 5.500% senior notes due 2034, to be issued by a U.S. wholly owned subsidiary and guaranteed by GFL and certain subsidiaries. The company plans to use the proceeds to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes, aiming to maximize liquidity to support its growth strategy while keeping leverage in the low-to-mid 3.0x range and having only an immaterial impact on its overall borrowing cost, underscoring continued strong support from institutional debt investors and a disciplined capital structure. The notes will be sold to qualified institutional buyers in the United States and on a private placement basis in certain Canadian provinces, highlighting GFL’s ongoing access to deep private credit markets and its focus on funding expansion without materially increasing balance-sheet risk for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental to Raise US$1 Billion in Senior Notes to Fund Growth and Bolster Liquidity

GFL Environmental Inc. plans to launch a US$1 billion private offering of senior notes due 2034 through a U.S. wholly owned subsidiary, with the notes guaranteed by GFL and certain subsidiaries. The company intends to use the proceeds to repay borrowings under its revolving credit facility and for general corporate purposes, aiming to maximize liquidity to support its growth strategy in 2026 and beyond while keeping the transaction leverage neutral and with an immaterial effect on its borrowing costs, underscoring its commitment to maintaining leverage in the low-to-mid 3.0x range and disciplined balance-sheet management.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$59.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Declares Q4 2025 Cash Dividend

GFL Environmental Inc. announced that its board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per subordinate and multiple voting share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 13, 2026, and designated the payout as an eligible dividend under Canadian tax law, underscoring the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to investors within its established dividend framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Announces Secondary Offering and Share Repurchase

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the pricing of a secondary offering by its selling shareholders, which includes entities affiliated with BC Partners Advisors L.P., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and HPS Investment Partners, LLC. The offering involves 16,611,295 subordinate voting shares priced at US$45.15 per share. Additionally, GFL has agreed to repurchase 1,275,000 shares for cancellation, a move unanimously approved by a special committee of independent directors. This strategic decision is aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Announces Secondary Share Offering by Shareholders

GFL Environmental Inc. announced a secondary offering of 16,611,295 subordinate voting shares by its selling shareholders, including entities affiliated with BC Partners Advisors L.P., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and HPS Investment Partners, LLC. The offering, managed by RBC Capital Markets, LLC and RBC Dominion Securities Inc., will not provide proceeds to GFL but will be available in all provinces and territories of Canada. This move is part of a broader strategy to manage shareholder interests and potentially impact market perceptions of GFL’s stock, although it does not directly affect the company’s operational finances.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.