Gfl Environmental Inc (TSE:GFL)
NYSE:GFL
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GFL Environmental
(NYSE:GFL)
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Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
C$54.00
▲(1.35% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/04/26
The score is held back primarily by weaker financial quality (high leverage, volatile net income, and thin/declining free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings call featuring Q1 margin/pricing strength and an upward revision to 2026 guidance driven by acquisitions.
Positive Factors
Recurring, vertically integrated business model
GFL’s contract-based collection, transfer, processing and owned disposal assets create recurring cash flows and better margin capture versus pure-haulers. Vertical integration and route density lower unit costs and preserve pricing pass-throughs, supporting durable profitability and resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material leverage (debt/equity ~1.36) limits financial flexibility to absorb shocks, pursue opportunistic investment, or rapidly deleverage. In a higher-rate environment this raises refinancing and interest-cost risk, constraining strategic optionality over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring, vertically integrated business model
GFL’s contract-based collection, transfer, processing and owned disposal assets create recurring cash flows and better margin capture versus pure-haulers. Vertical integration and route density lower unit costs and preserve pricing pass-throughs, supporting durable profitability and resilience.
Read all positive factors
GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$18.04B
Dividend Yield0.14%
Average Volume (3M)819.20K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.35
Revenue Growth-12.09%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees15,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding346,110,320
10 Day Avg. Volume661,005
30 Day Avg. Volume819,200
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.29
P/FCF Ratio57.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$73.59Price Target Upside38.12% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering16
EPS Forecast (FY)0.75
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$7.33B
GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GFL Environmental Inc. operates as a diversified environmental services company in Canada and the United States. The company offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. It...
How the Company Makes Money
GFL primarily makes money by charging recurring service fees for waste and environmental services delivered under customer contracts and municipal arrangements. Key revenue streams include: (1) Solid waste collection fees from residential, commerc...
GFL Environmental Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 29, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call was broadly positive: the company reported record first-quarter adjusted EBITDA margins, strong price realization (7% Q1 pricing), revenue growth of ~8.5% (pre-FX), underlying volume resilience excluding difficult prior-year comps, continued cost-efficiency gains, successful bond issuance and active M&A that led to an upward revision of full-year guidance. Offsetting items include temporary volume weakness in C&D and weather-related impacts, a near-term diesel cost spike that created a ~$10M headwind (to be largely recovered through surcharges), FX translational impacts on leverage, Q2 margin headwinds from commodities/fuel/M&A, and some investor pushback on the SECURE transaction and its near-term equity-market implications. On balance the company highlighted multiple levers for upside (commodity recovery, pricing retention, cost synergies and continued M&A), and management expects the headwinds to be manageable and largely recoverable.Positive Updates
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 180 basis points year-over-year to 29.1%, the highest first-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in company history, with underlying consolidated Q1 margins up over 230 basis points excluding exogenous factors.
Negative Updates
Weather and C&D Volume Headwinds
Q1 faced notable headwinds from significant winter storms in multiple markets and ongoing weakness in Construction & Demolition (C&D) volumes (C&D at landfill down ~7.5% in Q1). On a reported basis Q1 volumes were ~120 basis points behind prior year, and management flagged continued macro uncertainty weighing on C&D recovery.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Q1 Adjusted EBITDA Margin
Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 180 basis points year-over-year to 29.1%, the highest first-quarter adjusted EBITDA margin in company history, with underlying consolidated Q1 margins up over 230 basis points excluding exogenous factors.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
GFL updated full‑year 2026 guidance to reflect eight acquisitions closed year‑to‑date, now targeting revenue of $7.32–7.34 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $2.23 billion and adjusted free cash flow of $850 million (inclusive of $445 million cash interest and $825 million net CapEx); Q2 guidance is revenue of ~$1.89–1.90 billion, an adjusted EBITDA margin of 30.4% and adjusted free cash flow of ~ $225 million (inclusive of $85 million cash interest and $265 million net CapEx). The company reiterated its base‑business guide is unchanged and highlighted Q1 outperformance (Q1 revenues +8.5%, pricing 7% — Canada 8.5%, U.S. 6.3% — Q1 adjusted EBITDA margin 29.1%, +180 bps YoY, adjusted free cash flow ~ $20 million ahead of plan), volume dynamics (Q1 volumes -120 bps YoY but +80 bps ex hurricane and one‑time transfer station comps), commodity momentum (market pricing ~$15/ton above initial outlook; sensitivity: $10 change ≈ $6 million revenue/EBITDA), costs (cost of sales ex D&A down 90 bps to 60.7%; diesel ~+10% YoY, +40% in March causing a ~$10 million headwind with only ~$1 million recovered in Q1 but expected surcharge recovery by end‑Q2), balance sheet actions ($1.0 billion bond issuance, net leverage exited Q1 at 3.6x — 3.5x on average FX — and will tick ~30 bps higher after Q2 acquisitions before returning to mid‑3s), a $300–500 million deployable M&A pipeline remaining, and the proposed SECURE transaction (2026 revenue $1.5–1.6 billion, $25 million identified SG&A synergies plus an incremental $25–50 million of operational/revenue opportunities, i.e., $50–75 million total potential).GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
66
Positive
Balance Sheet
52
Neutral
Cash Flow
48
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 6.70B | 6.62B | 7.86B | 7.52B | 6.76B | 5.14B |
| Gross Profit | 1.38B | 1.37B | 1.46B | 1.26B | 823.40M | 498.80M |
| EBITDA | 2.16B | 1.72B | 1.22B | 2.33B | 1.63B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 208.80M | 3.83B | -722.70M | 45.40M | -311.80M | -606.80M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 20.87B | 19.30B | 21.21B | 19.88B | 19.77B | 18.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 1.44B | 85.60M | 133.80M | 135.70M | 82.10M | 190.40M |
| Total Debt | 9.89B | 8.38B | 10.55B | 9.29B | 9.68B | 9.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 13.41B | 11.81B | 13.99B | 12.49B | 13.72B | 12.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.28B | 7.30B | 6.98B | 7.18B | 6.04B | 5.78B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 89.60M | 381.60M | 347.20M | -74.70M | 331.10M | 250.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.30B | 1.52B | 1.54B | 980.40M | 1.10B | 897.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -1.95B | 3.72B | -1.68B | -310.40M | -1.73B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | 1.55B | -5.28B | 163.20M | -602.80M | 569.00M | 1.96B |
GFL Environmental Technical Analysis
Negative
53.28
Price Trends
55.15
Negative
57.20
Negative
60.80
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.50
Negative
37.53
Neutral
62.86
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 52.05, below the 50-day MA of 55.15, and below the 200-day MA of 60.80, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.50 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 37.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 62.86 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFL.
GFL Environmental Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$54.81B | 48.08 | 12.93% | 0.75% | 5.20% | 68.52% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
63 Neutral | C$4.70B | 33.92 | 15.18% | 2.27% | -45.36% | -33.50% | |
56 Neutral | C$18.04B | -24.11 | 3.01% | 0.14% | -12.09% | ― | |
53 Neutral | C$558.05M | -63.76 | -14.47% | ― | 88.73% | ― | |
42 Neutral | C$27.22M | -11.77 | 5297.73% | ― | 112.23% | 20.43% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:GFL
GFL Environmental
50.39
-18.32
-26.66%
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
215.72
-53.54
-19.88%
TSE:ECM
Ecolomondo Corporation
0.12
-0.10
-45.45%
TSE:SES
SECURE Waste Infrastructure
21.70
7.76
55.70%
TSE:VTX
Vertex Resource Group Ltd.
0.19
-0.07
-26.36%
TSE:ANRG
Anaergia
3.25
1.98
155.91%
GFL Environmental Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
GFL to Acquire SECURE Waste Infrastructure in $6.4 Billion Deal, Expanding Western Canadian Reach
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
GFL Environmental has agreed to acquire SECURE Waste Infrastructure in a $6.4 billion transaction, paying $24.75 per share through 80% stock and 20% cash, a 23% premium to SECURE’s recent trading average. The deal, fully financed and leverag...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
GFL Environmental Lifts Quarterly Dividend by 10%
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. said its board has approved a 10% increase to the company’s regular quarterly cash dividend on subordinate voting and multiple voting shares, raising the payout from US$0.0154 to US$0.0169 per share. The higher dividen...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
GFL Environmental Deepens Texas Footprint With Frontier Waste Acquisition
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
GFL Environmental has expanded its presence in the fast-growing Southern U.S. market with the acquisition of Frontier Waste Solutions, a vertically integrated solid waste operator with 24 sites, a fleet of more than 650 vehicles and nearly 1,000 e...
Financial Disclosures
GFL Environmental Sets Date for Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Investor Call
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. plans to release its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 after markets close on April 29, followed by an investor conference call on April 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The scheduled disclosure and call underline...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.