Gfl Environmental Inc (TSE:GFL)
NYSE:GFL
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GFL Environmental
(NYSE:GFL)
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Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$58.00
▲(8.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven by solid underlying cash generation and a favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), supported by a positive earnings-call backdrop with raised guidance and record margins. These are tempered by high leverage and mixed earnings quality/recent revenue decline, plus weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent and growing operating cash flow underpins durable self-funding capacity for capex, acquisitions and buybacks. Over 2–6 months this supports balance sheet flexibility, funds M&A integration, and cushions cyclical downturns versus firms reliant on external financing.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material net debt relative to equity increases refinancing and interest-rate sensitivity, constraining strategic flexibility. If volumes or pricing weaken, high leverage can force deleveraging actions or capex cuts, limiting long-term growth and making the business more cyclical.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Consistent and growing operating cash flow underpins durable self-funding capacity for capex, acquisitions and buybacks. Over 2–6 months this supports balance sheet flexibility, funds M&A integration, and cushions cyclical downturns versus firms reliant on external financing.
Read all positive factors
GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$19.76B
Dividend Yield0.14%
Average Volume (3M)618.23K
Price to Earnings (P/E)156.3
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth-15.85%
EPS Growth-95.47%
CountryCA
Employees15,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)N/A
Shares Outstanding346,110,320
10 Day Avg. Volume1,026,476
30 Day Avg. Volume618,227
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.29
P/FCF Ratio57.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$73.22Price Target Upside37.43% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering17
EPS Forecast (FY)0.91
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$7.17B
GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GFL Environmental Inc. operates as a diversified environmental services company in Canada and the United States. The company offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. It...
How the Company Makes Money
GFL primarily makes money by charging recurring service fees for waste and environmental services delivered under customer contracts and municipal arrangements. Key revenue streams include: (1) Solid waste collection fees from residential, commerc...
GFL Environmental Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance for GFL in Q3 2025, with record EBITDA margins and significant growth through strategic pricing and M&A activities. Despite some headwinds from commodity prices and volume challenges in the U.S., the company remains confident in its growth trajectory and raised full-year guidance, supported by substantial share buybacks.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA Margin
The company achieved the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in its history at 31.6%, demonstrating effective cost management and pricing strategies.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Headwinds
Commodity prices were down over 30% year-over-year, presenting a drag on margins despite overall strong performance.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA Margin
The company achieved the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in its history at 31.6%, demonstrating effective cost management and pricing strategies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the third quarter earnings call for GFL, the company provided guidance updates for the full fiscal year 2025, highlighting several key metrics and strategic actions. GFL achieved a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6%, marking the highest in the company's history, with a near double-digit top-line growth. The company raised its full-year guidance for the second time in 2025, now expecting revenue between $6.575 billion and $6.6 billion, and adjusted EBITDA around $1.975 billion, reflecting over $50 million more than the original guidance. This growth was driven by a 6.3% increase in pricing and positive volume contributions, despite headwinds from commodity prices and fuel surcharges. M&A activity has been robust, with $650 million deployed year-to-date, including $50 million after the quarter's end, contributing to significant growth tailwinds heading into 2026. GFL also completed a recapitalization of GIP, which added $175 million to their balance sheet. The company repurchased $350 million of shares in the third quarter and nearly $2.8 billion year-to-date, indicating a strong focus on capital returns amidst perceived share price dislocation.GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.62B | 7.86B | 7.52B | 6.76B | 5.14B |
| Gross Profit | 1.37B | 1.46B | 1.26B | 823.40M | 498.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.72B | 1.22B | 2.33B | 1.63B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 3.83B | -722.70M | 45.40M | -311.80M | -606.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.30B | 21.21B | 19.88B | 19.77B | 18.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.60M | 133.80M | 135.70M | 82.10M | 190.40M |
| Total Debt | 8.38B | 10.55B | 9.29B | 9.68B | 9.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.81B | 13.99B | 12.49B | 13.72B | 12.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.30B | 6.98B | 7.18B | 6.04B | 5.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 381.60M | 347.20M | -74.70M | 331.10M | 250.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.52B | 1.54B | 980.40M | 1.10B | 897.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.72B | -1.68B | -310.40M | -1.73B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.28B | 163.20M | -602.80M | 569.00M | 1.96B |
GFL Environmental Technical Analysis
Negative
53.28
Price Trends
58.28
Negative
59.27
Negative
62.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-1.12
Positive
34.88
Neutral
20.96
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 53.28 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.01, below the 50-day MA of 58.28, and below the 200-day MA of 62.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 34.88 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.96 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFL.
GFL Environmental Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$19.76B | 156.28 | -21.15% | 0.14% | -15.85% | -95.47% | |
67 Neutral | C$57.65B | 48.08 | 12.93% | 0.75% | 5.20% | 68.52% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | C$5.05B | 31.34 | 14.65% | 2.27% | -24.24% | -74.52% | |
56 Neutral | C$509.97M | 6.66 | -11.74% | ― | 61.39% | ― | |
41 Neutral | C$35.15M | -5.91 | 5297.73% | ― | 135.68% | 68.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:GFL
GFL Environmental
54.12
-14.80
-21.48%
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
220.28
-48.23
-17.96%
TSE:ECM
Ecolomondo Corporation
0.16
-0.05
-22.50%
TSE:SES
SECURE Waste Infrastructure
22.94
9.95
76.62%
TSE:VTX
Vertex Resource Group Ltd.
0.20
-0.08
-27.78%
TSE:ANRG
Anaergia
2.96
1.81
157.39%
GFL Environmental Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
GFL to Acquire SECURE Waste Infrastructure in $6.4 Billion Deal, Expanding Western Canadian Reach
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
GFL Environmental has agreed to acquire SECURE Waste Infrastructure in a $6.4 billion transaction, paying $24.75 per share through 80% stock and 20% cash, a 23% premium to SECURE’s recent trading average. The deal, fully financed and leverag...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
GFL Environmental Lifts Quarterly Dividend by 10%
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. said its board has approved a 10% increase to the company’s regular quarterly cash dividend on subordinate voting and multiple voting shares, raising the payout from US$0.0154 to US$0.0169 per share. The higher dividen...
Business Operations and StrategyM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
GFL Environmental Deepens Texas Footprint With Frontier Waste Acquisition
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
GFL Environmental has expanded its presence in the fast-growing Southern U.S. market with the acquisition of Frontier Waste Solutions, a vertically integrated solid waste operator with 24 sites, a fleet of more than 650 vehicles and nearly 1,000 e...
Financial Disclosures
GFL Environmental Sets Date for Q1 2026 Earnings Release and Investor Call
Neutral
Mar 27, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. plans to release its financial results for the first quarter of 2026 after markets close on April 29, followed by an investor conference call on April 30 at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time. The scheduled disclosure and call underline...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.