GFL Environmental (TSE:GFL)
TSX:GFL
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GFL Environmental
(TSX:GFL)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$64.00
▲(3.21% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven by solid underlying cash generation and a favorable valuation (low P/E and high dividend yield), supported by a positive earnings-call backdrop with raised guidance and record margins. These are tempered by high leverage and mixed earnings quality/recent revenue decline, plus weak technical trend signals (below key moving averages with negative MACD).
Positive Factors
Recurring, integrated revenue streams
GFL’s core model is recurring contract-based waste collection plus owned disposal and processing assets. Vertical integration (collection to landfill/MRF) and municipal/commercial contracts create predictable cash flows, pricing pass-throughs and route density advantages that sustain earnings resilience.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Material debt loads amplify downside risk if volumes or pricing weaken. Elevated leverage increases refinancing and interest-rate exposure, constrains flexibility for M&A or capex, and raises the stakes on sustaining cash flow and margins to meet obligations over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Recurring, integrated revenue streams
GFL’s core model is recurring contract-based waste collection plus owned disposal and processing assets. Vertical integration (collection to landfill/MRF) and municipal/commercial contracts create predictable cash flows, pricing pass-throughs and route density advantages that sustain earnings resilience.
Read all positive factors
GFL Environmental (GFL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$22.19B
Dividend Yield0.14%
Average Volume (3M)428.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)5.7
Beta (1Y)0.44
Revenue Growth-10.87%
EPS Growth-168.62%
CountryCA
Employees15,000
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryWaste Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.23
Shares Outstanding346,110,320
10 Day Avg. Volume521,335
30 Day Avg. Volume428,255
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.98
Price to Sales (P/S)3.29
P/FCF Ratio57.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$79.00Price Target Upside27.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering13
EPS Forecast (FY)0.9
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$7.04B
GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
GFL Environmental Inc. operates as a diversified environmental services company in Canada and the United States. The company offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. It...
How the Company Makes Money
GFL Environmental generates revenue primarily through its solid waste and liquid waste management services. The company charges customers for waste collection and disposal services, which include fees for residential, commercial, and industrial wa...
GFL Environmental Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 07, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong performance for GFL in Q3 2025, with record EBITDA margins and significant growth through strategic pricing and M&A activities. Despite some headwinds from commodity prices and volume challenges in the U.S., the company remains confident in its growth trajectory and raised full-year guidance, supported by substantial share buybacks.Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA Margin
The company achieved the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in its history at 31.6%, demonstrating effective cost management and pricing strategies.
Negative Updates
Commodity Price Headwinds
Commodity prices were down over 30% year-over-year, presenting a drag on margins despite overall strong performance.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Adjusted EBITDA Margin
The company achieved the highest adjusted EBITDA margin in its history at 31.6%, demonstrating effective cost management and pricing strategies.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During the third quarter earnings call for GFL, the company provided guidance updates for the full fiscal year 2025, highlighting several key metrics and strategic actions. GFL achieved a record adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6%, marking the highest in the company's history, with a near double-digit top-line growth. The company raised its full-year guidance for the second time in 2025, now expecting revenue between $6.575 billion and $6.6 billion, and adjusted EBITDA around $1.975 billion, reflecting over $50 million more than the original guidance. This growth was driven by a 6.3% increase in pricing and positive volume contributions, despite headwinds from commodity prices and fuel surcharges. M&A activity has been robust, with $650 million deployed year-to-date, including $50 million after the quarter's end, contributing to significant growth tailwinds heading into 2026. GFL also completed a recapitalization of GIP, which added $175 million to their balance sheet. The company repurchased $350 million of shares in the third quarter and nearly $2.8 billion year-to-date, indicating a strong focus on capital returns amidst perceived share price dislocation.GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
55
Neutral
Cash Flow
68
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 6.62B | 7.86B | 7.52B | 6.76B | 5.14B |
| Gross Profit | 1.37B | 1.46B | 1.26B | 823.40M | 498.80M |
| EBITDA | 1.72B | 1.22B | 2.33B | 1.63B | 1.09B |
| Net Income | 3.83B | -722.70M | 45.40M | -311.80M | -606.80M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 19.30B | 21.21B | 19.88B | 19.77B | 18.40B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 85.60M | 133.80M | 135.70M | 82.10M | 190.40M |
| Total Debt | 8.38B | 10.55B | 9.29B | 9.68B | 9.63B |
| Total Liabilities | 11.81B | 13.99B | 12.49B | 13.72B | 12.62B |
| Stockholders Equity | 7.30B | 6.98B | 7.18B | 6.04B | 5.78B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 381.60M | 347.20M | -74.70M | 331.10M | 250.70M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.52B | 1.54B | 980.40M | 1.10B | 897.90M |
| Investing Cash Flow | 3.72B | -1.68B | -310.40M | -1.73B | -2.69B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.28B | 163.20M | -602.80M | 569.00M | 1.96B |
GFL Environmental Technical Analysis
Positive
62.01
Price Trends
58.70
Positive
59.81
Positive
62.82
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.16
Negative
64.53
Neutral
90.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 62.01 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 57.85, above the 50-day MA of 58.70, and below the 200-day MA of 62.82, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.16 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.53 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 90.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GFL.
GFL Environmental Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | C$22.19B | 5.68 | -21.15% | 0.14% | -10.87% | -168.62% | |
64 Neutral | C$59.10B | 41.90 | 13.22% | 0.75% | 10.49% | -32.11% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
59 Neutral | C$4.75B | 31.34 | 14.65% | 2.27% | -1.47% | -79.68% | |
58 Neutral | C$483.98M | 55.53 | 36.36% | ― | 28.43% | 80.34% | |
41 Neutral | C$34.02M | -5.91 | 5297.73% | ― | 135.68% | 68.99% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:GFL
GFL Environmental
62.01
0.87
1.43%
TSE:WCN
Waste Connections
231.14
-30.02
-11.50%
TSE:ECM
Ecolomondo Corporation
0.15
<0.01
3.45%
TSE:SES
SECURE Waste Infrastructure
21.90
9.55
77.30%
TSE:VTX
Vertex Resource Group Ltd.
0.22
0.01
7.50%
TSE:ANRG
Anaergia
2.82
1.89
203.23%
GFL Environmental Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
GFL Environmental Reschedules Q4 Call to Align With 2025 Results and 2026 Guidance Release
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc., a major North American diversified environmental services provider specializing in solid waste management, operates an extensive platform of facilities across Canada and 18 U.S. states with over 15,000 employees. The compan...
Financial Disclosures
GFL Environmental Sets Date for 2025 Results Release and 2026 Guidance Call
Neutral
Jan 15, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. will release its fourth quarter and full year 2025 financial results along with its 2026 guidance after markets close on February 11, 2026, followed by an investor conference call on February 12, 2026. The scheduled disclosu...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
GFL Environmental Raises US$1 Billion in Oversubscribed Senior Notes Offering to Fund Growth
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. has priced a significantly oversubscribed private offering of US$1 billion in 5.500% senior notes due 2034, to be issued by a U.S. wholly owned subsidiary and guaranteed by GFL and certain subsidiaries. The company plans to ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
GFL Environmental to Raise US$1 Billion in Senior Notes to Fund Growth and Bolster Liquidity
Positive
Jan 13, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. plans to launch a US$1 billion private offering of senior notes due 2034 through a U.S. wholly owned subsidiary, with the notes guaranteed by GFL and certain subsidiaries. The company intends to use the proceeds to repay bor...
Dividends
GFL Environmental Declares Q4 2025 Cash Dividend
Positive
Jan 2, 2026
GFL Environmental Inc. announced that its board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per subordinate and multiple voting share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 13, 2026, and d...
Business Operations and StrategyStock Buyback
GFL Environmental Announces Secondary Offering and Share Repurchase
Positive
Nov 21, 2025
GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the pricing of a secondary offering by its selling shareholders, which includes entities affiliated with BC Partners Advisors L.P., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and HPS Investment Partners, LLC. ...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
GFL Environmental Announces Secondary Share Offering by Shareholders
Neutral
Nov 21, 2025
GFL Environmental Inc. announced a secondary offering of 16,611,295 subordinate voting shares by its selling shareholders, including entities affiliated with BC Partners Advisors L.P., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and HPS Investment...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.