GFL Environmental (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$24.03B
• Dividend Yield: 0.12%
• Average Volume (3M): 377.03K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.44
• Revenue Growth: 1.37%
• EPS Growth: -9742.41%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 94
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 354,894,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 284,343
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 377,027
• PEG Ratio: 0.40
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.09
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 98.57
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$76.73
• Price Target Upside: 17.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: C$69.00 ▲(5.28%Upside)

GFL Environmental's overall stock score reflects strong earnings performance and strategic execution, tempered by technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. Significant debt reduction and M&A activities provide optimism, but operational challenges and current market momentum suggest a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

GFL's reaffirmed 2025 guidance and multiple avenues to exceed it, including accelerating M&A, indicate strong financial performance.

Operational Improvement

The improved labor turnover and operational focus are expected to bring significant cost and safety benefits.

Negative Factors

Ambitious Targets

GFL's ambitious 2028 targets, while achievable, may be perceived as risky and conservative, potentially affecting investor sentiment.

Valuation Concerns

Current valuation concerns keep analysts on the sidelines, suggesting that optimism may already be factored in.

GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GFL Environmental Inc. is a leading North American provider of diversified environmental solutions. The company operates in multiple sectors, including solid waste management, liquid waste management, and infrastructure services. GFL is dedicated to providing efficient and sustainable waste management services, offering a broad range of solutions such as collection, recycling, and disposal to residential, commercial, and industrial clients.

How the Company Makes Money

GFL Environmental generates revenue through its comprehensive waste management services. The company's primary revenue streams include fees for waste collection and disposal services provided to residential, commercial, and industrial customers. Additionally, GFL earns income from recycling operations by selling recovered materials to manufacturers and processors. The company also benefits from infrastructure services, such as soil remediation and excavation. Strategic acquisitions and partnerships further enhance GFL's market presence and contribute to its earnings by expanding its service offerings and geographical reach.

GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GFL Environmental shows promising growth with increasing revenues and healthy EBITDA margins, despite operational challenges reflected in negative EBIT margins and volatile cash flow growth. The balance sheet displays a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, but a high ROE due to one-time gains suggests the need for caution regarding sustainability.

Income Statement

GFL Environmental has shown a consistent increase in revenue over the years, indicative of solid growth in the waste management industry. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at approximately 19.37%, with a net profit margin significantly impacted by a large net income figure due to unusual or non-operational gains. However, the EBIT margin is negative in the TTM, indicating operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 14.99%, reflecting strong operational cash generation capabilities.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93x in the TTM, which implies a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is approximately 41.34%, showcasing a healthy proportion of equity financing. However, the return on equity is substantially high at 35.53% due to the large net income figure, suggesting potential one-time gains rather than sustainable operational performance.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio in the TTM, indicating strong cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been volatile, which could pose risks to long-term cash flow stability.

Breakdown	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.86B	7.52B	6.76B	5.53B	4.20B
Gross Profit	1.49B	1.27B	797.60M	527.60M	190.10M
EBITDA	1.22B	2.33B	1.63B	1.09B	303.80M
Net Income	-722.70M	45.40M	-183.20M	-606.80M	-994.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	21.21B	20.67B	19.77B	18.37B	15.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	133.80M	135.70M	82.10M	190.40M	27.20M
Total Debt	10.55B	9.29B	9.65B	8.29B	7.74B
Total Liabilities	13.99B	13.29B	13.72B	12.60B	10.05B
Stockholders Equity	6.98B	7.18B	6.04B	5.78B	5.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	347.20M	-74.70M	316.20M	250.70M	73.90M
Operating Cash Flow	1.54B	980.40M	1.10B	897.90M	502.20M
Investing Cash Flow	-1.68B	-310.40M	-1.73B	-2.69B	-4.35B
Financing Cash Flow	163.20M	-602.80M	569.00M	1.96B	3.34B

GFL Environmental Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 65.54
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 65.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 65.59, below the 50-day MA of 67.21, and above the 200-day MA of 64.91, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 31.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GFL.

GFL Environmental Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SES	78 Outperform	C$3.63B	20.10	16.22%	2.43%	13.51%	-58.43%
WCN	75 Outperform	C$66.42B	72.63	7.88%	<0.01%	12.84%	-23.50%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$11.06B	15.73	5.16%	1.93%	3.12%	-25.59%
GFL	61 Neutral	C$24.03B	9.57	-10.02%	0.12%	1.37%	-9742.41%
BLM	54 Neutral	C$52.41M	2,014.29	0.16%	―	49.38%	-93.75%

GFL Environmental Corporate Events

GFL Environmental Declares Q2 2025 Dividend

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on July 31, 2025, to shareholders recorded by July 14, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence its market positioning positively by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the release date for its second quarter financial results for 2025, which will be made public after market close on July 30, 2025. The company will also host an investor conference call on July 31, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating a commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.