GFL Environmental (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$21.27B
• Dividend Yield: 0.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 276.16K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.18
• Revenue Growth: -10.87%
• EPS Growth: -168.62%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 347,310,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 359,247
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 276,162
• PEG Ratio: 0.02
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.10
• P/FCF Ratio: 70.29
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$77.04
• Price Target Upside: 30.07% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): 0.93
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$7.08B

• Rating: 57 Neutral
• Price Target: C$64.00 ▲(8.05% Upside)

GFL Environmental's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance and positive corporate events, which are offset by financial challenges and weak technical indicators. The company's strategic focus on growth and capital returns is promising, but high leverage and valuation concerns pose risks.

Positive Factors

Record EBITDA Margin

Achieving a record EBITDA margin indicates strong cost management and pricing strategies, enhancing long-term profitability and financial health.

M&A Activity

Robust M&A activities position GFL for strong growth, expanding its service offerings and geographic footprint, which supports future revenue streams.

Cash Flow Growth

Positive cash flow growth enhances GFL's ability to invest in growth opportunities and manage debt, contributing to long-term financial stability.

Negative Factors

Rising Debt Levels

High leverage can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting GFL's ability to invest in growth and weather economic downturns.

Declining Revenue Growth

Declining revenue growth indicates challenges in maintaining market share and competitiveness, which could affect long-term profitability.

Negative Profit Margins

Sustained negative profit margins highlight profitability issues, which may hinder GFL's ability to reinvest in the business and reward shareholders.

GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GFL Environmental Inc. operates as a diversified environmental services company in Canada and the United States. The company offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its solid waste management business line includes the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste for municipal, residential, and commercial and industrial customers. The company's infrastructure and soil remediation business line provides remediation of contaminated soils, as well as complementary services, including civil, demolition, and excavation and shoring services. Its liquid waste management business collects, manages, transports, processes, and disposes of a range of industrial and commercial liquid wastes, as well as resells liquid waste products. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vaughan, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

GFL Environmental generates revenue primarily through its solid waste and liquid waste management services. The company charges customers for waste collection and disposal services, which include fees for residential, commercial, and industrial waste collection. Additionally, GFL earns revenue from recycling operations by processing recyclable materials and selling them to markets. Infrastructure services, such as landfill operations and environmental remediation projects, also contribute to the company's earnings. GFL has established significant partnerships with municipalities and large corporations, providing long-term contracts that ensure a steady revenue stream. The company's focus on expanding its service offerings and geographic footprint through acquisitions further enhances its revenue-generating capabilities.

GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GFL Environmental faces financial challenges with declining revenues and profitability issues. The company exhibits high leverage, which poses risks to financial stability. However, positive cash flow trends provide some optimism for future improvements. Strategic focus on revenue growth and debt management is essential for enhancing financial health.

Income Statement

GFL Environmental's income statement reveals a challenging financial position with declining revenue growth and negative net profit margins. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) data shows a revenue decline of 4.43% and a significant net loss, indicating profitability issues. Despite a reasonable EBITDA margin of 27.10%, the company struggles with consistent profitability, as evidenced by negative EBIT and net profit margins.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a high debt-to-equity ratio of 0.94 in the TTM period, reflecting significant leverage. The equity ratio is stable, but the negative return on equity indicates challenges in generating returns for shareholders. The company needs to manage its debt levels carefully to improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis indicates positive trends with an 18.73% growth in free cash flow in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy, suggesting efficient cash generation relative to net income. However, the free cash flow to net income ratio is low, indicating limited free cash flow relative to the net loss.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	6.92B	7.86B	7.52B	6.76B	5.14B	4.20B
Gross Profit	1.41B	1.46B	1.26B	823.40M	498.80M	164.60M
EBITDA	1.88B	1.22B	2.33B	1.63B	1.09B	303.80M
Net Income	-1.73B	-722.70M	45.40M	-311.80M	-606.80M	-1.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	13.90B	21.21B	19.88B	19.77B	18.40B	15.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	139.72M	133.80M	135.70M	82.10M	190.40M	27.20M
Total Debt	5.65B	10.55B	9.29B	9.68B	9.63B	7.79B
Total Liabilities	8.29B	13.99B	12.49B	13.72B	12.62B	10.16B
Stockholders Equity	5.46B	6.98B	7.18B	6.04B	5.78B	5.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	225.70M	347.20M	-74.70M	331.10M	250.70M	73.90M
Operating Cash Flow	1.44B	1.54B	980.40M	1.10B	897.90M	502.20M
Investing Cash Flow	4.22B	-1.68B	-310.40M	-1.73B	-2.69B	-4.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.54B	163.20M	-602.80M	569.00M	1.96B	3.34B

GFL Environmental Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 59.23
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 59.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 59.16, below the 50-day MA of 61.03, and below the 200-day MA of 65.22, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.64 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 46.10 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 77.03 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:GFL.

GFL Environmental Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	75 Outperform	C$59.56B	69.28	7.61%	0.75%	10.49%	-32.11%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
SES	61 Neutral	C$3.87B	39.29	11.37%	2.27%	-1.47%	-79.68%
GFL	57 Neutral	C$21.27B	-13.52	<0.01%	0.14%	-10.87%	-168.62%
ANRG	54 Neutral	C$492.56M	-21.53	―	―	28.43%	80.34%
ECM	41 Neutral	C$40.82M	-16.82	-1787.47%	―	135.68%	68.99%

GFL Environmental Corporate Events

GFL Environmental Declares Q4 2025 Cash Dividend

GFL Environmental Inc. announced that its board has declared a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per subordinate and multiple voting share for the fourth quarter of 2025, payable on January 30, 2026 to shareholders of record as of January 13, 2026, and designated the payout as an eligible dividend under Canadian tax law, underscoring the company’s ongoing commitment to returning capital to investors within its established dividend framework.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$64.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Announces Secondary Offering and Share Repurchase

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the pricing of a secondary offering by its selling shareholders, which includes entities affiliated with BC Partners Advisors L.P., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and HPS Investment Partners, LLC. The offering involves 16,611,295 subordinate voting shares priced at US$45.15 per share. Additionally, GFL has agreed to repurchase 1,275,000 shares for cancellation, a move unanimously approved by a special committee of independent directors. This strategic decision is aimed at optimizing the company’s capital structure and potentially enhancing shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Announces Secondary Share Offering by Shareholders

GFL Environmental Inc. announced a secondary offering of 16,611,295 subordinate voting shares by its selling shareholders, including entities affiliated with BC Partners Advisors L.P., Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan Board, and HPS Investment Partners, LLC. The offering, managed by RBC Capital Markets, LLC and RBC Dominion Securities Inc., will not provide proceeds to GFL but will be available in all provinces and territories of Canada. This move is part of a broader strategy to manage shareholder interests and potentially impact market perceptions of GFL’s stock, although it does not directly affect the company’s operational finances.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.