GFL Environmental (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$22.33B
• Dividend Yield: 0.14%
• Average Volume (3M): 351.23K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.31
• Revenue Growth: -10.87%
• EPS Growth: -168.62%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): 0.23
• Shares Outstanding: 347,310,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 391,544
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 351,229
• PEG Ratio: N/A
• Price to Book (P/B): N/A
• Price to Sales (P/S): N/A
• P/FCF Ratio: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$78.32
• Price Target Upside: 25.94% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 53 Neutral
• Price Target: C$63.00 ▲(1.30% Upside)

GFL Environmental's overall stock score is driven by strong earnings call performance, with record EBITDA margins and raised guidance. However, financial performance and valuation are concerning due to high debt levels, negative profitability, and a negative P/E ratio. Technical analysis indicates bearish momentum, further impacting the score.

Positive Factors

Record EBITDA Margins

Achieving record EBITDA margins indicates strong cost management and effective pricing strategies, enhancing long-term profitability.

M&A Activity

Robust M&A activity positions GFL for future growth by expanding its service offerings and geographic footprint, creating long-term value.

Guidance Raise

Raising guidance reflects management's confidence in sustained revenue growth and operational performance, supporting future earnings potential.

Negative Factors

High Debt Levels

High debt levels can strain financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting GFL's ability to invest in growth opportunities.

Negative Profitability

Negative profitability metrics indicate challenges in generating shareholder returns, which may hinder long-term financial health and investor confidence.

Commodity Price Headwinds

Declining commodity prices can pressure margins and profitability, impacting GFL's ability to maintain strong financial performance over time.

GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GFL Environmental Inc. is a leading North American provider of diversified environmental solutions, specializing in solid waste management, liquid waste management, and infrastructure services. The company operates across various sectors, including residential, commercial, industrial, and municipal waste management, offering a wide range of services such as collection, recycling, treatment, and disposal of waste materials. GFL is committed to sustainability, focusing on innovative practices that promote recycling and resource recovery.

How the Company Makes Money

GFL Environmental generates revenue primarily through its solid waste and liquid waste management services. The company charges customers for waste collection and disposal services, which include fees for residential, commercial, and industrial waste collection. Additionally, GFL earns revenue from recycling operations by processing recyclable materials and selling them to markets. Infrastructure services, such as landfill operations and environmental remediation projects, also contribute to the company's earnings. GFL has established significant partnerships with municipalities and large corporations, providing long-term contracts that ensure a steady revenue stream. The company's focus on expanding its service offerings and geographic footprint through acquisitions further enhances its revenue-generating capabilities.

GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GFL Environmental exhibits promising growth with consistent revenue increases and strong EBITDA margins, despite operational challenges indicated by negative EBIT margins. The balance sheet reflects a reasonable debt-to-equity ratio, but the high ROE may be unsustainable. Cash flows are robust yet volatile, highlighting the need for future cash flow stability.

Income Statement

GFL Environmental has shown a consistent increase in revenue over the years, indicative of solid growth in the waste management industry. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at approximately 19.37%, with a net profit margin significantly impacted by a large net income figure due to unusual or non-operational gains. However, the EBIT margin is negative in the TTM, indicating operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 14.99%, reflecting strong operational cash generation capabilities.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93x in the TTM, which implies a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is approximately 41.34%, showcasing a healthy proportion of equity financing. However, the return on equity is substantially high at 35.53% due to the large net income figure, suggesting potential one-time gains rather than sustainable operational performance.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio in the TTM, indicating strong cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been volatile, which could pose risks to long-term cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.24B	7.86B	7.52B	6.76B	5.14B	4.20B
Gross Profit	1.44B	1.46B	1.26B	823.40M	498.80M	164.60M
EBITDA	1.96B	1.22B	2.33B	1.63B	1.09B	303.80M
Net Income	-1.73B	-722.70M	45.40M	-311.80M	-606.80M	-1.10B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	18.53B	21.21B	19.88B	19.77B	18.40B	15.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	139.70M	133.80M	135.70M	82.10M	190.40M	27.20M
Total Debt	7.21B	10.55B	9.29B	9.68B	9.63B	7.79B
Total Liabilities	10.64B	13.99B	12.49B	13.72B	12.62B	10.16B
Stockholders Equity	7.66B	6.98B	7.18B	6.04B	5.78B	5.57B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	190.10M	347.20M	-74.70M	331.10M	250.70M	73.90M
Operating Cash Flow	1.39B	1.54B	980.40M	1.10B	897.90M	502.20M
Investing Cash Flow	4.33B	-1.68B	-310.40M	-1.73B	-2.69B	-4.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.69B	163.20M	-602.80M	569.00M	1.96B	3.34B

GFL Environmental Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 62.19
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 62.19 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 62.22, below the 50-day MA of 63.61, and below the 200-day MA of 66.34, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.79 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 48.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.66 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFL.

GFL Environmental Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WCN	72 Outperform	$60.65B	70.54	7.61%	0.77%	10.49%	-32.11%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BLM	54 Neutral	C$53.64M	―	-3.01%	―	63.49%	-133.70%
GFL	53 Neutral	C$22.33B	-14.20	<0.01%	0.14%	-10.87%	-168.62%
SES	51 Neutral	C$3.64B	36.79	11.37%	2.25%	-1.47%	-79.68%

GFL Environmental Corporate Events

GFL Environmental Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Raises Guidance

On November 5, 2025, GFL Environmental Inc. reported its third-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a 9.0% revenue growth and a record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 31.6%. The company also raised its full-year 2025 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance for the second time this year, reflecting strong operational performance and strategic investments in acquisitions and share repurchases. This financial performance underscores GFL’s resilience amidst macroeconomic challenges and positions it for continued growth and margin expansion into 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$58.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results

GFL Environmental Inc. announced it will release its third quarter financial results for 2025 on November 5, followed by an investor conference call on November 6. This announcement is part of GFL’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance, which is crucial for maintaining transparency and investor confidence in the competitive environmental services industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Buy with a C$57.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Declares Quarterly Dividend

GFL Environmental Inc. announced a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per share for the third quarter of 2025, payable on October 31, 2025, to shareholders of record as of October 15, 2025. This dividend declaration reflects GFL’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence investor perceptions and market positioning within the environmental services sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$68.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Announces $4.25 Billion Recapitalization of Green Infrastructure Partners

On August 7, 2025, GFL Environmental Inc. announced a recapitalization agreement for Green Infrastructure Partners (GIP) with Energy Capital Partners, valuing GIP at $4.25 billion. The transaction will provide GIP with $775 million in proceeds, with $585 million distributed to shareholders and $175 million allocated for growth. GFL will receive $200 million from this distribution, maintaining a 30.1% stake in GIP, valued at $895 million. This move is expected to enhance GFL’s financial flexibility and support its growth strategies, while positioning GIP for further expansion.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.