GFL Environmental (GFL) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $24.00B
• Dividend Yield: 0.13%
• Average Volume (3M): 468.72K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 9.6
• Beta (1Y): 0.41
• Revenue Growth: 1.37%
• EPS Growth: -9742.41%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 15,000
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Waste Management
• EPS (TTM): -0.09
• Shares Outstanding: 354,894,230
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 598,342
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 468,719
• PEG Ratio: 1.13
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.40
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 45.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: $74.43
• Price Target Upside: 14.40% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 10

• Rating: 61 Neutral
• Price Target: C$69.00 ▲(6.06%Upside)

GFL Environmental's overall stock score reflects strong earnings performance and strategic execution, tempered by technical weaknesses and valuation concerns. Significant debt reduction and M&A activities provide optimism, but operational challenges and current market momentum suggest a cautious outlook.

Positive Factors

Financial Performance

Pricing and volumes are tracking above plan while prior investments in RNG and recycling are beginning to bear fruit.

Growth Strategy

Accelerating M&A growth and peer-leading margin improvement will force a re-rating of the company's valuation.

Operational Efficiency

Labor turnover improved 200 bps yoy and almost 800 bps from 1Q23 and should continue to provide numerous cost and safety benefits.

Negative Factors

Earnings Estimates

The risk to earnings estimates appears weighted to the upside.

Market Position

While valuation keeps analysts on the sidelines, the optimism is largely captured by the current valuation.

Valuation

Valuation keeps analysts on the sidelines, suggesting that optimism is largely captured by the current valuation.

GFL Environmental Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

GFL Environmental Inc. operates as a diversified environmental services company in Canada and the United States. The company offers non-hazardous solid waste management, infrastructure and soil remediation, and liquid waste management services. Its solid waste management business line includes the collection, transportation, transfer, recycling, and disposal of non-hazardous solid waste for municipal, residential, and commercial and industrial customers. The company's infrastructure and soil remediation business line provides remediation of contaminated soils, as well as complementary services, including civil, demolition, and excavation and shoring services. Its liquid waste management business collects, manages, transports, processes, and disposes of a range of industrial and commercial liquid wastes, as well as resells liquid waste products. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vaughan, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

GFL Environmental makes money primarily through its extensive service offerings in waste management and environmental solutions. The company's revenue model is built on collecting fees for waste collection, processing, recycling, and disposal services. Key revenue streams include subscription-based services for residential waste collection, contracts with commercial businesses for waste management solutions, and specialized services for hazardous and liquid waste handling. Additionally, the company benefits from partnerships with municipalities and industrial clients, which often involve long-term contracts that provide stable and recurring revenue. GFL's focus on sustainability and recycling initiatives also allows it to capitalize on the growing demand for environmentally responsible waste management solutions, further contributing to its earnings.

GFL Environmental Financial Statement Overview

Summary

GFL Environmental shows promising revenue growth and strong EBITDA margins, despite operational challenges reflected in negative EBIT margins. The balance sheet is moderately leveraged, and cash flows are robust but volatile, indicating a need for improved cash flow stability.

Income Statement

GFL Environmental has shown a consistent increase in revenue over the years, indicative of solid growth in the waste management industry. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin stands at approximately 19.37%, with a net profit margin significantly impacted by a large net income figure due to unusual or non-operational gains. However, the EBIT margin is negative in the TTM, indicating operational challenges. EBITDA margin remains robust at 14.99%, reflecting strong operational cash generation capabilities.

Balance Sheet

The company's balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.93x in the TTM, which implies a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio is approximately 41.34%, showcasing a healthy proportion of equity financing. However, the return on equity is substantially high at 35.53% due to the large net income figure, suggesting potential one-time gains rather than sustainable operational performance.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive operating cash flow to net income ratio in the TTM, indicating strong cash conversion from earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, suggesting efficient capital expenditure management. However, the free cash flow growth rate has been volatile, which could pose risks to long-term cash flow stability.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	7.62B	7.86B	7.52B	6.76B	5.53B	4.20B
Gross Profit	1.48B	1.49B	1.27B	797.60M	527.60M	190.10M
EBITDA	1.18B	1.22B	2.33B	1.63B	1.09B	303.80M
Net Income	2.86B	-722.70M	45.40M	-183.20M	-606.80M	-994.90M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	19.47B	21.21B	20.67B	19.77B	18.37B	15.73B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	537.20M	133.80M	135.70M	82.10M	190.40M	27.20M
Total Debt	7.48B	10.55B	9.29B	9.65B	8.29B	7.74B
Total Liabilities	11.18B	13.99B	13.29B	13.72B	12.60B	10.05B
Stockholders Equity	8.05B	6.98B	7.18B	6.04B	5.78B	5.68B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	234.90M	347.20M	-74.70M	316.20M	250.70M	73.90M
Operating Cash Flow	1.45B	1.54B	980.40M	1.10B	897.90M	502.20M
Investing Cash Flow	4.09B	-1.68B	-310.40M	-1.73B	-2.69B	-4.35B
Financing Cash Flow	-5.06B	163.20M	-602.80M	569.00M	1.96B	3.34B

GFL Environmental Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 65.06
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GFL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 65.06 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 67.92, below the 50-day MA of 68.34, and above the 200-day MA of 64.14, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.53 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 36.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 5.69 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:GFL.

GFL Environmental Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SES	76 Outperform	C$3.47B	19.19	16.22%	2.58%	13.51%	-58.43%
Sector *	67 Neutral	€8.39B	18.63	6.19%	2.67%	2.39%	-39.55%
BLM	64 Neutral	C$50.13M	1,942.86	0.16%	―	49.38%	-93.75%
GFL	61 Neutral	$24.00B	9.57	-10.02%	0.13%	1.37%	-9742.41%
WCN		$46.38B	74.40	7.96%	0.71%	―	―
BQE		C$69.82M	10.14	38.06%	―	―	―
VTX		C$28.01M	―	-11.65%	―	―	―

GFL Environmental Corporate Events

GFL Environmental Declares Q2 2025 Dividend

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced a cash dividend of US$0.0154 per share for the second quarter of 2025, payable on July 31, 2025, to shareholders recorded by July 14, 2025. This move reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to returning value to its shareholders and may influence its market positioning positively by reinforcing investor confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the release date for its second quarter financial results for 2025, which will be made public after market close on July 30, 2025. The company will also host an investor conference call on July 31, 2025, to discuss these results, indicating a commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:GFL) stock is a Hold with a C$54.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on GFL Environmental stock, see the TSE:GFL Stock Forecast page.

GFL Environmental Resumes Share Repurchase Program

GFL Environmental Inc. has announced the resumption of its normal course issuer bid (NCIB) following approval from the Toronto Stock Exchange. The company plans to repurchase up to 28,046,256 subordinate voting shares over the next year, excluding shares previously repurchased from BC Partners and those acquired in a secondary offering. This move is part of GFL’s strategy to manage its capital structure and potentially enhance shareholder value, with purchases subject to market conditions and executed through various trading platforms.