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Transat AT V & VV (TSE:TRZ)
TSX:TRZ

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TRZ

Transat AT V & VV

(TSX:TRZ)

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Neutral 55 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:55Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.50
▼(-0.79% Downside)
Transat AT V & VV's overall stock score reflects significant financial challenges, including high leverage and negative revenue growth, which weigh heavily on the score. Technical indicators and valuation suggest some potential for recovery, while the earnings call provides a cautiously optimistic outlook. However, the financial instability remains a critical concern.
Positive Factors
Debt Restructuring
Successful debt restructuring significantly reduces financial leverage, improving balance sheet health and enhancing financial flexibility for future growth.
Network Expansion
Expanding routes and strategic partnerships enhance market presence and diversify revenue streams, supporting long-term growth and competitive positioning.
Elevation Program
The Elevation program's progress towards significant EBITDA growth indicates operational improvements and cost efficiencies, bolstering long-term profitability.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage and negative equity pose financial risks, potentially limiting investment capacity and increasing vulnerability to economic downturns.
Aircraft Grounding
Grounded aircraft reduce operational capacity and revenue potential, impacting service reliability and customer satisfaction in the medium term.
Increased Competition
Rising competition in key markets pressures pricing and margins, challenging Transat's market share and profitability over the coming months.

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Transat AT V & VV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransat AT Inc. (TRZ) is a Canadian integrated tourism company specializing in the travel sector, particularly in leisure travel. The company operates through its subsidiaries, providing a variety of services including airline transportation, hotel accommodations, and vacation packages. Transat is known for its charter airline, Air Transat, which offers flights to destinations across North America, the Caribbean, and Europe, as well as its tour operator segment that creates and sells vacation packages, facilitating seamless travel experiences for consumers.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransat AT generates revenue primarily through its airline operations and vacation package sales. The airline segment earns money through the sale of flight tickets to travelers, which includes both direct sales and sales through travel agencies. The tour operator division contributes significant revenue by offering bundled vacation packages that include flights, hotels, and ground services. Additionally, the company benefits from ancillary revenues such as baggage fees, seat selection fees, and in-flight services. Strategic partnerships with hotels and other travel service providers also enhance revenue opportunities. Seasonal travel trends and demand fluctuations significantly impact earnings, as the company capitalizes on peak travel periods, particularly during summer and holidays.

Transat AT V & VV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Sep 11, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Mar 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Transat's Q3 performance shows a mix of positive revenue growth and strategic progress through debt restructuring and network expansion, tempered by challenges such as aircraft grounding and competitive pressures. The Elevation program is progressing well, contributing to improved financial metrics, but the company faces headwinds with slight declines in load factors and increased market competition.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue and EBITDA Growth
Transat reported a 4.1% increase in revenue to $766 million and adjusted EBITDA of $81 million for Q3 2025, reflecting higher revenues, increased productivity, and a 14% decrease in fuel prices compared to the previous year.
Debt Restructuring Success
Completed restructuring of government debt, resulting in a $345 million gain on long-term debt extinguishment, significantly reducing total debt.
Elevation Program Progress
The Elevation program is on track to achieve $100 million in annual adjusted EBITDA by mid-2026, with benefits starting to materialize.
Network Expansion
New nonstop service announced from Toronto to Istanbul and Rio de Janeiro, along with a partnership with Turkish Airlines, reflecting ongoing efforts to diversify the network.
Customer Satisfaction Recognition
Air Transat was named the world's best leisure airline at the 2025 Skytrax World Airline Awards for the seventh time.
Negative Updates
Load Factor Slight Decline
Load factor stood at 85% compared to 86.2% in 2024, indicating a slight decline in this key metric.
Aircraft Grounding Challenge
Six aircraft remained grounded due to the ongoing Pratt & Whitney GTF engine issue, impacting operational performance.
Softness in Q4 Load Factors
Q4 load factors are down 1.2 percentage points compared to last year, with yields currently trending downward.
Increased Competition in Key Markets
Increased capacity from competitors on key European markets, leading to aggressive pricing and downward yield trends.
Company Guidance
During the Transat third-quarter earnings call for fiscal year 2025, several key metrics and operational updates were discussed. The company reported a 4.1% increase in revenue to $766 million and an adjusted EBITDA of $81 million. The quarter saw a 2.4% increase in capacity, expressed in available seat miles, with a 4.2% rise in transatlantic routes. Yield improved by 2.6% year-over-year, while the load factor slightly decreased to 85% from 86.2% in 2024. The Elevation program, aiming for $100 million in annual adjusted EBITDA by mid-2026, began yielding benefits. Transat's fleet included 43 aircraft, with six grounded due to Pratt & Whitney engine issues. Recent expansions included new routes to Istanbul and Rio de Janeiro, contributing to a 5% to 7% capacity increase for the upcoming winter. The company reported a net income of $400 million due to a significant gain on long-term debt extinguishment, marking a turnaround from a net loss of $40 million the previous year. Cash and cash equivalents rose to $357 million, while long-term debt decreased significantly following restructuring efforts.

Transat AT V & VV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Transat AT V & VV's financial performance is concerning due to negative revenue growth, high leverage, and modest profitability margins. Despite positive net income and cash flow improvements, the high debt levels and negative equity pose significant risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Transat AT V & VV's income statement shows mixed results. The company has achieved a positive net income in the latest year, indicating a turnaround from previous losses. However, revenue growth has been negative, and the gross profit margin remains low. The EBIT and EBITDA margins have improved, but they are still modest, reflecting ongoing challenges in profitability.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant financial leverage, with a negative stockholders' equity and a high debt-to-equity ratio. This indicates potential financial instability and risk. The equity ratio is negative, and although the company has improved its return on equity, the overall financial health remains concerning due to high debt levels.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis indicates some improvement, with positive operating cash flow and free cash flow in the latest year. However, the free cash flow growth rate is negative, and the ratios of cash flow to net income suggest that cash generation is still a challenge. The company needs to focus on sustaining positive cash flows to support its operations and reduce debt.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.40B3.28B3.05B1.64B124.82M
Gross Profit390.55M347.67M415.68M-92.26M-138.79M
EBITDA633.27M251.42M291.73M-193.70M-153.61M
Net Income241.92M-114.03M-25.29M-445.32M-389.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.57B2.75B2.57B2.27B1.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments594.92M260.34M435.65M322.54M433.19M
Total Debt1.56B2.15B1.89B1.75B1.42B
Total Liabilities3.22B3.64B3.35B3.02B2.21B
Stockholders Equity-645.05M-889.08M-779.04M-750.18M-315.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow59.12M-43.90M264.18M-210.38M-524.04M
Operating Cash Flow156.97M94.67M321.75M-177.85M-518.44M
Investing Cash Flow-10.21M-31.45M-7.93M-33.78M4.54M
Financing Cash Flow-243.19M-240.29M-203.02M99.69M522.07M

Transat AT V & VV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.52
Price Trends
50DMA
2.33
Positive
100DMA
2.52
Positive
200DMA
2.25
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.08
Negative
RSI
58.93
Neutral
STOCH
45.63
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.47, above the 50-day MA of 2.33, and above the 200-day MA of 2.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 58.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.63 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRZ.

Transat AT V & VV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$5.12B20.884.01%1.31%-5.33%-57.58%
71
Outperform
C$55.69B43.10102.01%0.20%14.02%20.11%
71
Outperform
C$258.16M10.746.05%6.18%-3.53%-17.19%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
59
Neutral
$7.28B298.8245.71%0.86%-5.14%-87.15%
55
Neutral
C$106.48M0.4412.83%3.49%
51
Neutral
$748.99M-18.20-2.64%1.94%-7.25%-143.07%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRZ
Transat AT V & VV
2.63
0.80
43.72%
TSE:XTC
Exco Technologies
6.80
-0.24
-3.37%
TSE:LNR
Linamar
85.61
29.28
51.97%
TSE:MRE
Martinrea International
10.29
1.45
16.38%
TSE:DOO
BRP
99.18
24.53
32.86%
TSE:DOL
Dollarama
203.39
65.22
47.20%

Transat AT V & VV Corporate Events

Transat A.T. V & Vv’s Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Sep 12, 2025

Transat A.T. V & Vv’s latest earnings call reflects a nuanced sentiment, balancing positive strides in revenue growth and strategic initiatives against operational challenges and competitive pressures. The company has made notable progress with its Elevation program and debt restructuring, yet faces hurdles such as aircraft grounding and a slight decline in load factors.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Transat A.T. Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Performance
Positive
Sep 11, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. reported a significant improvement in its third-quarter financial performance for fiscal 2025, with revenues increasing by 4.1% to $766.3 million and adjusted EBITDA rising to $81.2 million. The company’s strategic initiatives, including the Elevation Program and debt restructuring, have strengthened its financial position, allowing for continued growth and diversification in its travel offerings. Despite economic uncertainties and challenges in the industry, Transat remains focused on disciplined cost management and network expansion to enhance its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$2.60 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Transat A.T. Inc. Reduces Debt and Adjusts Equity Structure
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has announced the redemption of Series 4 Preferred Shares and partial repayment of its LEEFF debt, using $30 million from a recent engine sale and leaseback transaction. This financial maneuver reduces Transat’s debt obligations and adjusts its equity structure, impacting its financial positioning and potentially influencing stakeholder interests, while maintaining its existing credit facility with CEEFC.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Air Transat Boosts Liquidity with $45 Million Engine Sale-Leaseback
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Air Transat has completed a US$45 million engine sale and leaseback agreement with Rolls-Royce & Partners Finance for two Pratt & Whitney spare engines. This transaction aims to enhance the airline’s liquidity, allowing it to repay debt, redeem preferred shares, and fund operations, thereby strengthening its financial position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Air Transat Boosts Liquidity with Engine Sale-Leaseback Deal
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Air Transat has completed a sale and leaseback agreement for two Pratt & Whitney GTF spare engines with Rolls-Royce & Partners Finance, valued at US$45 million. This transaction will enhance the airline’s liquidity, enabling it to repay debt, redeem preferred shares, and fund operations, thereby strengthening its financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 20, 2025