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Transat AT V & VV (TSE:TRZ)
TSX:TRZ

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:TRZ

Transat AT V & VV

(TSX:TRZ)

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Neutral 56 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.50
â–²(7.30% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/12/26
The score is held back primarily by balance-sheet weakness (negative equity and high leverage) and bearish technical conditions (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Offsetting these are a meaningful operating and cash-flow recovery and a generally constructive earnings-call outlook (EBITDA improvement initiatives and capacity growth), though execution and operational disruption risks remain.
Positive Factors
Improved profitability & revenue recovery
The company’s material income recovery and higher margins reflect stronger leisure demand and operating leverage. Sustained profitability supports reinvestment, coverage of fixed costs and longer-term operational resilience, improving cash generation and strategic flexibility over coming months.
Strong cash generation and positive free cash flow
Positive operating and free cash flow provide durable liquidity for working capital, capital expenditures and debt service. Consistent FCF reduces reliance on external financing, enabling deleveraging and funding of efficiency programs, supporting financial stability over the next 2–6 months.
Debt refinancing lowered long-term obligations
The successful refinancing materially cuts interest burden and extends maturities, easing near-term cash interest requirements. That strengthens solvency metrics and frees cash to fund the Elevation program and capacity growth, improving balance-sheet durability while execution continues.
Negative Factors
Weak balance sheet and negative equity
Elevated leverage and negative equity constrain financial flexibility and increase refinancing and covenant risk. This weakened capital base limits the company’s ability to absorb shocks, fund growth or opportunistic investments until equity recovers, a structural constraint over months.
Historical earnings volatility and sensitivity
Past multi-year losses highlight cyclicality of leisure travel and sensitivity to fuel, capacity and accounting items. Even with current improvement, earnings and margins can reverse under demand or cost shocks, making cash flows and planning less predictable for investors and lenders.
Operational risk from grounded aircraft
Recurring engine supplier issues that keep aircraft grounded reduce available capacity, raise unit costs and impair network reliability. These operational constraints can durably limit revenue growth and margin recovery while affecting the company’s ability to meet capacity targets.

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Transat AT V & VV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransat A.T. Inc. operates as an integrated international tourism company in the Americas and Europe. The company offers vacation packages, hotel stays, and air travel services under the Transat and Air Transat brands to approximately 60 destinations in approximately 25 countries. It also operates outgoing tours; and involved in the retail distribution activities, such as providing advice to travelers. In addition, the company offers air transportation services; destination services, including hospitality and representation, passenger transfers, excursions, tours, sports, and other activities; and specialty services, such as destination weddings, teambuilding, etc. Transat A.T. Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Montréal, Canada.
How the Company Makes Moneynull

Transat AT V & VV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Dec 18, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jun 11, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
Transat showed strong operational improvements and strategic expansions, particularly in network growth and financial restructuring. However, revenue declines and operational challenges, such as grounded aircraft and increased expenses, indicate areas of concern.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Adjusted EBITDA
Adjusted EBITDA improved by 33% year-over-year to an all-time record of $271 million, supported by efficient cost management and initial benefits from the Elevation optimization program.
Successful Network Expansion
Transat announced several new international routes, including a nonstop flight between Toronto and Tirana, Albania, and expansions into West Africa and South America, indicating a strategic focus on high-potential markets.
Debt Refinancing Achievement
Successful refinancing of government debt significantly reduced interest charges and strengthened the balance sheet, with long-term debt reduced from $803 million to $400 million.
Positive Booking Trends
During Black Friday and Cyber Monday, bookings increased by 11% compared to the previous year, setting a record high for the period.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
Total revenues declined 2.2% year-over-year to $772 million due to timing of Pratt & Whitney compensation.
Reduced Capacity and Grounded Aircraft
Capacity expressed as available seat mile decreased 1.8% in the quarter, and the number of grounded aircraft due to Pratt & Whitney engine issues fluctuated between 6 and 8 throughout 2025.
Net Loss for the Quarter
Net loss was $12 million or $0.31 per share in the fourth quarter of 2025 compared to net income of $41 million or $1.05 per share in the same period of 2024.
Higher Operating Expenses
Higher than expected operating expenses were largely driven by unfavorable variations in accounting provisions, including $10 million related to compliance costs for carbon credits.
Company Guidance
During the fourth quarter conference call for fiscal 2025, Transat provided several key metrics and guidance for the upcoming year. The company reported a 3.5% increase in annual revenues to $3.4 billion and a record-high adjusted EBITDA of $271 million, up 33% year-over-year. Passenger revenues increased by 1.5%, driven by a higher yield, although total revenues for the fourth quarter declined by 2.2% to $772 million due to timing differences in Pratt & Whitney compensation. Capacity, measured in available seat miles, decreased by 1.8% for the quarter but increased by 0.8% for the year. The load factor remained stable at 87% for the quarter and 84.6% for the year, while yield improved by 2.6% in the quarter and 2.3% for the year. Looking forward to fiscal 2026, Transat anticipates a capacity increase of 5% to 7% for the winter season and 6% to 8% for the entire year, supported by network optimization and fewer grounded aircraft. The company also aims to continue its Elevation optimization program, targeting a $100 million improvement in EBITDA by mid-2026, with a 60-40 split between cost savings and revenue enhancements.

Transat AT V & VV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Operating recovery is clear (income statement score 72; cash flow score 63) with improved profitability and positive free cash flow, but it is heavily offset by a very weak balance sheet (balance sheet score 28) featuring negative equity and high debt, keeping financial risk elevated.
Income Statement
72
Positive
Performance has improved materially versus earlier years, with TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) showing solid profitability (about 9.7% net margin) and a sharp revenue step-up (revenue growth rate ~121%). Margins have generally expanded from 2024 to TTM, indicating better cost control and operating leverage. Offsetting this, the business has been volatile historically (losses in 2021–2024) and margins remain sensitive to demand and cost swings typical of travel services.
Balance Sheet
28
Negative
Leverage remains a key constraint: total debt is high (TTM ~1.46B) and shareholders’ equity is still deeply negative (TTM about -0.67B), which signals a weakened capital base despite the earnings rebound. While debt has trended down from 2024 levels, the company is still operating with elevated financial risk and limited balance-sheet flexibility until equity meaningfully recovers.
Cash Flow
63
Positive
Cash generation has strengthened: TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) operating cash flow is positive (~285M) and free cash flow is also positive (~196M), a notable improvement from 2024 when free cash flow was negative. However, cash conversion is not fully keeping pace with reported earnings (TTM free cash flow is ~69% of net income), and operating cash flow coverage remains modest in the provided data, suggesting liquidity and reinvestment capacity can still fluctuate.
BreakdownTTMOct 2025Oct 2024Oct 2023Oct 2022Oct 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.44B3.40B3.28B3.05B1.64B124.82M
Gross Profit425.07M390.55M347.67M415.68M-92.26M-138.79M
EBITDA696.96M633.27M251.42M291.73M-193.70M-153.61M
Net Income334.95M241.92M-114.03M-25.29M-445.32M-389.44M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.87B2.57B2.75B2.57B2.27B1.90B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments914.74M594.92M260.34M435.65M322.54M433.19M
Total Debt1.46B1.56B2.15B1.89B1.75B1.42B
Total Liabilities3.54B3.22B3.64B3.35B3.02B2.21B
Stockholders Equity-674.33M-645.05M-889.08M-779.04M-750.18M-315.11M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow196.16M59.12M-43.90M264.18M-210.38M-524.04M
Operating Cash Flow284.79M156.97M94.67M321.75M-177.85M-518.44M
Investing Cash Flow-31.59M-10.21M-31.45M-7.93M-33.78M4.54M
Financing Cash Flow-256.13M-243.19M-240.29M-203.02M99.69M522.07M

Transat AT V & VV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price2.33
Price Trends
50DMA
2.61
Negative
100DMA
2.48
Negative
200DMA
2.54
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.07
Positive
RSI
27.53
Positive
STOCH
2.75
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRZ, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 2.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.52, below the 50-day MA of 2.61, and below the 200-day MA of 2.54, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 27.53 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.75 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:TRZ.

Transat AT V & VV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
75
Outperform
C$244.33M11.2418.14%5.06%1.01%6.68%
72
Outperform
C$885.56M7.283.64%3.51%1.38%-64.10%
62
Neutral
C$871.45M16.4227.32%5.07%-2.54%-10.57%
61
Neutral
$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
56
Neutral
C$93.18M-0.89-29.12%―3.49%―
50
Neutral
C$2.02B-9.31-48.23%―14.40%-1117.18%
48
Neutral
C$6.42B23.285.55%0.86%-5.14%-87.15%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRZ
Transat AT V & VV
2.29
0.80
53.69%
TSE:DOO
BRP
87.51
32.72
59.71%
TSE:GH
Gamehost
11.82
2.17
22.56%
TSE:NFI
NFI Group Inc
16.94
3.52
26.23%
TSE:MTY
MTY Food Group
38.77
-1.84
-4.54%
TSE:AW
A & W Food Services of Canada Inc.
36.30
5.64
18.40%

Transat AT V & VV Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Transat A.T. Narrows Loss and Boosts Cash as Profitability Improves in Q1 2026
Positive
Mar 10, 2026

Transat A.T. Inc. reported first-quarter fiscal 2026 revenues of $870.7 million, up 5% year over year, with adjusted EBITDA rising 68% to $33.6 million and the net loss narrowing sharply to $29.5 million, supported by higher traffic, improved yields and cost-efficiency initiatives. The company generated strong operating cash flow, boosting cash and cash equivalents to $386.7 million and enabling significant debt reduction, while also managing operational challenges by temporarily suspending Cuba flights due to fuel shortages, redeploying capacity to other sun destinations, and announcing a new strategic loyalty partnership with Desjardins Group and Visa Canada that underpins its efforts to deepen customer engagement and solidify its competitive position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Second Proxy Advisor Backs Transat Slate, Rejects Dissident Push
Positive
Mar 2, 2026

Transat A.T. Inc. secured backing from a second major proxy advisory firm, Institutional Shareholder Services, which urged investors to support the company’s full slate of eight board nominees and its proposed amendment to expand the board size range, while opposing all dissident proposals from Financière Outremont. Alongside a similar recommendation from Glass Lewis and support agreements from two large Québec-based institutional shareholders, the endorsements underscore confidence in Transat’s turnaround plan, improved operating metrics, and recent balance sheet strengthening, and they cast doubt on the dissident’s bid for board influence, which ISS warned could facilitate a future takeover and raises concerns about governance and independence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Glass Lewis Backs Transat Slate, Rejects Dissident Board Challenge
Positive
Feb 27, 2026

Independent proxy advisory firm Glass Lewis has recommended that Transat A.T. Inc. shareholders back the company’s full slate of eight board nominees and support an amendment to its articles to allow a board size of between eight and 15 directors. The firm also advised investors to reject proposals from dissident shareholder Financière Outremont Inc., including attempts to shrink the board to six members and elect its own nominees.

Glass Lewis cited Transat’s operational complexity, improving capital structure and ongoing recovery as reasons to maintain the current leadership, arguing the dissident nominees do not add unique aviation-specific expertise. Transat’s board chair welcomed the endorsement as validation of the company’s recovery trajectory and governance, underscoring that continuity of leadership is viewed as the best path forward at a pivotal stage for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Transat Urges Support for Board Slate as Turnaround Gains Traction
Positive
Feb 25, 2026

Transat A.T. Inc. has urged shareholders to vote using the BLUE proxy in support of its slate of eight board nominees, arguing that the refreshed, industry-expert board is best positioned to oversee the next phase of its ongoing turnaround. The company highlights progress under its strategic plan, including the Elevation Program, which targets a $100 million uplift in adjusted operating income by mid-2026 through revenue optimization, cost discipline and operational efficiencies.

Management points to a materially stronger balance sheet following a 2025 federal debt restructuring that halved government debt and cut annual interest expense by about 90%, boosting financial flexibility. Transat also underscores recent share price outperformance versus its main Canadian competitor and the S&P/TSX Composite, contending that these gains, alongside improved cash burn and record adjusted EBITDA in fiscal 2025, demonstrate recovery momentum despite past pandemic-driven weakness.

The letter seeks to counter criticisms from activist shareholder Financière Outremont Inc., challenging claims about long-term share underperformance, financial fragility, and labour instability. Transat stresses its unbroken record of avoiding labour conflicts, the ratified pilot agreement that averted a 2025 strike, and its willingness to engage with activists, while criticizing past takeover proposals as below market and value-destructive for existing shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesRegulatory Filings and ComplianceShareholder Meetings
Transat Rallies Shareholders Behind Board Slate in Heated Proxy Contest
Positive
Feb 12, 2026

Transat A.T. Inc. has filed and begun mailing its management information circular for its March 10, 2026 annual and special shareholders meeting, where a contested board election will be held. The company is urging investors to use the BLUE proxy to back its proposed eight-member slate, which it says balances continuity with fresh expertise aligned to its ongoing recovery plan.

Management argues that Transat’s recovery strategy is gaining traction, with operations stabilized, financial performance strengthened and a foundation laid for long-term value creation. The proposed board has been shaped through a structured process and includes nominees with deep experience in aviation, restructuring, finance and transformation, which the company says is critical to maintaining momentum.

Transat highlights formal support and voting agreements with two major Québec institutional investors, Fonds de solidarité FTQ and Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec, which together hold 16.1% of the voting shares and have each put forward a nominee. It also notes that it offered Financière Outremont a single board seat consistent with its sub-10% ownership, an offer the shareholder declined, underscoring tensions over governance and control ahead of the vote.

The company portrays the proposed board composition as a “responsible evolution” of its governance, emphasizing a smaller, more independent board that still ensures significant shareholder representation. By framing the contest as a choice between a disciplined execution of a working recovery plan and the risk of a shareholder gaining effective control without paying a premium, Transat is signaling to investors that the outcome of this vote could materially shape its strategic direction and value trajectory.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresPrivate Placements and Financing
Transat A.T. Delivers Record 2025 EBITDA and Restructures Debt as It Targets Leisure Travel Growth
Positive
Dec 18, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. reported record adjusted EBITDA of $271 million for fiscal 2025, a 33% increase year over year, on revenues of $3.4 billion, driven by higher yields, modest traffic growth, productivity gains and lower fuel costs. The company swung to a net income of $241.9 million for the year from a net loss in 2024, while still generating negative free cash flow as it continues to invest in its operations. Fourth-quarter performance was softer, with revenues down 2.2% to $771.6 million and adjusted EBITDA nearly halving to $71.4 million, largely due to reduced compensation tied to Pratt & Whitney engine issues, although underlying revenue grew when excluding this effect. Management highlighted a major milestone in restructuring its government LEEFF debt, cutting the outstanding balance to $350 million and extending maturities to 2035, which is expected to substantially lower interest expenses and free capacity for growth and optimization initiatives. With all key collective agreements renewed through at least 2027 and a tentative deal with its pilots, Transat expects to accelerate growth in 2026 through targeted network expansion in Africa, Europe and South America, increased capacity as fewer aircraft remain grounded, and the full realization of its Elevation Program, which is projected to add $100 million in adjusted EBITDA by mid-2026, underpinning its strategy to create long-term shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Transat A.T. Schedules Special Shareholder Meeting Amid Board Change Proposals
Neutral
Dec 15, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has scheduled a special meeting of shareholders for March 10, 2026, in response to a requisition by shareholder Financière Outremont Inc. The meeting aims to address proposed changes to the board of directors, which include replacing a majority of independent directors with nominees aligned with a shareholder owning less than 10% of Transat’s shares. The board emphasizes the importance of shareholder democracy and aims to ensure that decisions reflect the interests of all stakeholders, including employees, travelers, partners, and creditors, rather than the ambitions of a single shareholder.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Hold with a C$3.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 12, 2026