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Transat A.T. V & Vv (TSE:TRZ)
:TRZ

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) AI Stock Analysis

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Transat AT V & VV

(TSX:TRZ)

Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
C$3.00
▲(6.38%Upside)
Transat AT V & VV's overall stock score reflects a mix of financial instability but positive technical momentum and strategic initiatives. The financial performance remains a significant risk due to ongoing profitability challenges and leverage. However, recent corporate events and earnings call improvements provide a positive outlook for restructuring and growth. The stock's technical momentum is strong, though caution is advised due to valuation concerns and overbought technical indicators.

Transat AT V & VV (TRZ) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Transat AT V & VV Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionTransat AT V & VV (TRZ) is a Canadian company operating primarily in the tourism sector, offering an extensive range of vacation packages, air travel, and hotel services. The company manages travel brands and operates as an integrated international tourism company, focusing on holiday travel to various destinations across the globe. Its core services include charter and scheduled flights, accommodation, and a variety of travel-related services.
How the Company Makes MoneyTransat AT V & VV generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily from the sale of vacation packages, which includes flights, hotel stays, and ground transport services. The company also earns income from its airline operations, with revenue coming from ticket sales for charter and scheduled flights. In addition to these primary revenue streams, Transat AT engages in partnerships with destination hotels and tourism service providers, which can include commissions and other financial arrangements. Ancillary revenue from in-flight services, travel insurance, and guided tours also contribute to its earnings.

Transat AT V & VV Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jun 12, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.71%|
Next Earnings Date:Sep 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant financial and operational improvements, including revenue growth, debt restructuring, and operational efficiency gains. However, challenges such as a slight decline in load factor, aircraft grounding issues, and softness in fourth quarter bookings temper the optimism.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Revenue Growth
Revenue grew 5.9% year-over-year, reaching over $1 billion, driven by favorable yields, lower fuel costs, and a noncash compensation from Pratt & Whitney.
Debt Restructuring
Transat reached an agreement to restructure its debt, reducing it by half from $773 million to $334 million, enhancing financial flexibility and resilience.
Adjusted EBITDA Improvement
Adjusted EBITDA increased significantly to $98.4 million from $30 million in the second quarter of last year.
Operational Improvements
On-time performance improved year-over-year due to the in-sourcing of ground services and deployment of AI tools in call centers.
New Network Initiatives
New routes to high-potential markets like Guadalajara, Mexico, and expanded service to European markets were announced, expected to increase revenue and improve cost efficiency.
Positive Cash Flow and Financial Position
Cash flow from operating activities was $208 million, and free cash flow reached $271 million for the first half of fiscal 2025.
Negative Updates
Load Factor Decline
Load factor was 84.6%, representing a slight decline from last year.
Aircraft Grounding
Six to seven aircraft are expected to remain grounded due to the Pratt & Whitney engine situation, impacting operations until at least 2027.
Softness in Fourth Quarter Bookings
Observed some booking softness for the fourth quarter, particularly in European markets, due to economic uncertainty and consumer behavior.
Company Guidance
During the Transat conference call for the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company provided guidance emphasizing a 5.9% increase in revenue to over $1 billion and an adjusted EBITDA of $98.4 million, primarily driven by favorable yields, lower fuel costs, and a noncash compensation of $20 million from Pratt & Whitney. Despite a slight decline in the load factor to 84.6%, customer traffic expressed as revenue passenger miles increased by 1.6%, and capacity, expressed in available seat miles, rose by 2.6%. The company announced a significant debt restructuring, reducing debt with CEEFC from $773 million to $334 million, and introduced initiatives expected to generate an annualized adjusted EBITDA of $67 million by mid-2026. Transat also mentioned a strategic network expansion to include new routes to the Caribbean and Mexican markets and extended service to selected European markets year-round. Looking ahead, yields for the summer season are projected to be 1.7% ahead of last year, although some softness is anticipated for the fourth quarter due to economic uncertainty.

Transat AT V & VV Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Transat AT V & VV faces significant financial challenges, with persistent profitability issues and a heavily leveraged balance sheet. While revenue shows slight growth, the company struggles with negative equity and low margins. Improved cash flow is a positive sign, but not sufficient to offset the broader financial risks.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Transat AT V & VV has shown some revenue growth with a 1.34% increase in total revenue over the TTM period. However, profitability is a concern as both EBIT and net profit margins remain negative, indicating ongoing operational challenges. Gross profit margin stands at 11.01%, which is relatively low for the industry, reflecting cost pressures.
Balance Sheet
30
Negative
The company has a high debt-to-equity ratio due to negative equity, indicating significant financial leverage and potential risk. The return on equity is negative, which is concerning for shareholders. Negative stockholders' equity suggests financial instability, potentially due to accumulated losses.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Operating cash flow has improved over the TTM, showing a positive trend. The cash flow to net income ratios are favorable, indicating good cash generation relative to reported losses. However, the free cash flow growth is modest, and capital expenditures remain a constraint.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.33B3.28B3.05B1.64B124.82M1.30B
Gross Profit366.51M347.67M415.68M-92.26M-138.79M51.49M
EBITDA207.95M251.42M288.97M-191.23M-148.91M-235.64M
Net Income-175.59M-114.03M-25.29M-445.32M-389.44M-496.76M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets3.02B2.75B2.57B2.27B1.90B2.02B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments389.36M260.34M435.65M322.54M433.19M426.43M
Total Debt2.18B2.15B1.89B1.75B1.42B903.89M
Total Liabilities4.03B3.64B3.35B3.02B2.21B1.95B
Stockholders Equity-1.01B-889.08M-779.04M-750.18M-315.11M66.31M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow40.26M-43.90M264.18M-210.38M-524.04M-107.56M
Operating Cash Flow152.55M94.67M321.75M-177.85M-518.44M-46.14M
Investing Cash Flow5.03M-31.45M-7.93M-33.78M4.54M-60.41M
Financing Cash Flow-224.89M-240.29M-203.02M99.69M522.07M-33.37M

Transat AT V & VV Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.82
Price Trends
50DMA
1.97
Positive
100DMA
1.80
Positive
200DMA
1.81
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.26
Negative
RSI
69.74
Neutral
STOCH
71.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:TRZ, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.53, above the 50-day MA of 1.97, and above the 200-day MA of 1.81, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.26 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 69.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:TRZ.

Transat AT V & VV Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSXTC
79
Outperform
$268.57M10.176.86%5.99%-2.84%-8.22%
TSLNR
71
Outperform
$4.00B15.864.66%1.73%2.26%-54.00%
TSDOL
71
Outperform
$52.50B43.14138.71%0.22%9.20%18.11%
TSMRE
67
Neutral
C$640.53M5.65-3.98%2.27%-9.36%-145.18%
62
Neutral
$16.76B11.38-7.38%2.96%1.59%-23.30%
TSTRZ
60
Neutral
C$112.77M12.83%3.55%-159.59%
TSDOO
58
Neutral
$4.83B19.6626.57%1.21%-22.34%-110.04%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:TRZ
Transat AT V & VV
2.82
0.50
21.55%
TSE:DOL
Dollarama
189.38
62.34
49.07%
TSE:LNR
Linamar
66.95
1.25
1.90%
TSE:DOO
BRP
71.17
-16.18
-18.52%
TSE:MRE
Martinrea International
8.80
-2.29
-20.67%
TSE:XTC
Exco Technologies
7.01
-0.43
-5.82%

Transat AT V & VV Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingLegal Proceedings
Transat A.T. Faces Legal Challenge Over Debt Restructuring Deal
Neutral
Jun 28, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has been served with an injunction application by Financière Outremont Inc. to prevent the closing of a debt restructuring transaction with Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation (CEEFC) unless shareholder approval is obtained. The transaction, which aims to significantly reduce Transat’s debt and strengthen its financial position, has led to a 72% increase in the company’s share price. Transat intends to contest the injunction, asserting that the transaction does not require shareholder approval and emphasizes that it was unanimously approved by the Board of Directors after a thorough review process.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$1.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Transat A.T. Inc. Reports Strong Q2 2025 Results with Revenue Growth and Debt Restructuring
Positive
Jun 12, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. reported a strong second quarter for fiscal 2025, with revenues increasing by 5.9% to $1,031.1 million, driven by improved yield and passenger traffic. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $98.4 million, reflecting enhanced productivity and lower fuel costs. A significant development was the agreement for debt restructuring, which strengthens the balance sheet and supports the company’s strategic growth plans. The Elevation Program is expected to deliver substantial cost savings and revenue growth, positioning Transat for long-term profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$2.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Transat A.T. Inc. Restructures LEEFF Debt to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has reached an agreement with the Canada Enterprise Emergency Funding Corporation (CEEFC) to restructure its debt incurred under the Large Enterprise Emergency Funding Facility (LEEFF) program during the COVID-19 pandemic. This agreement will reduce Transat’s outstanding debt from $772 million to $334 million by March 31, 2025, significantly deleveraging its balance sheet. The restructuring includes a cash repayment, issuance of preferred shares, and a new credit facility, providing Transat with the flexibility to implement its long-term strategic plan and maintain its competitive position in the market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:TRZ) stock is a Sell with a C$2.25 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Transat AT V & VV stock, see the TSE:TRZ Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Transat A.T. Inc. Re-elects Board of Directors
Positive
May 2, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. announced the re-election of its board of directors during the annual and special meeting of shareholders. The eleven candidates, including President and CEO Annick Guérard, were re-elected by a majority vote, reflecting strong shareholder support. This re-election is significant for the company’s governance and may influence its strategic direction and operations, reinforcing its position in the leisure travel industry.

Shareholder Meetings
Transat A.T. Inc. Adjourns Shareholders’ Meeting Due to Quorum Shortfall
Neutral
Apr 29, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has adjourned its annual and extraordinary shareholders’ meeting to May 1, 2025, due to not meeting the required quorum of 25% participation. The meeting will resume in a hybrid format, and shareholders are encouraged to vote by April 30, 2025. This adjournment highlights the importance of shareholder engagement and could impact the company’s governance processes.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Transat Secures New GTF Engine Support Agreement for 2025-2026
Positive
Apr 17, 2025

Transat A.T. Inc. has secured a new support agreement with the manufacturer of GTF engines for 2025 and 2026, which includes compensation for grounded aircraft costs. This agreement, similar to the previous one for 2023 and 2024, provides credits for products and services, including the purchase of spare engines, which Transat may monetize through financial transactions.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jun 27, 2025