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Dollarama Inc (TSE:DOL)
TSX:DOL
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Dollarama (DOL) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:DOL

Dollarama

(TSX:DOL)

Rating:77Outperform
Price Target:
C$223.00
▲(16.10% Upside)
Dollarama's overall stock score is driven by its strong financial performance and positive earnings call, reflecting robust growth and expansion strategies. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, though valuation concerns and macroeconomic challenges present potential risks.
Positive Factors
Earnings
Expecting another solid quarter; increasing target to C$178.00.
Market Position
Analyst rates Dollarama shares as Outperform due to its status as a high-quality retailer with several competitive advantages in the Canadian market.
Product Strategy
Portable Model Bodes Promising for BUY.
Negative Factors
International Growth
There is caution towards Dollarcity's near-term growth trajectory due to a lower growth rate and a volatile political climate in Colombia.
Media Rights
Lowering Estimates/Targets Owing to New NHL Rights.

Dollarama (DOL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Dollarama Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionDollarama Inc. operates a chain of dollar stores in Canada. Its stores offer general merchandise, consumables, and seasonal products. The company also sells its products through online store. As of January 30, 2022, it operated 1,421 stores. The company was formerly known as Dollarama Capital Corporation and changed its name to Dollarama Inc. in September 2009. Dollarama Inc. was founded in 1992 and is headquartered in Montreal, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyDollarama generates revenue primarily through the sale of a wide assortment of products at fixed low prices. The company's revenue model is based on high-volume sales, low operating costs, and a carefully managed supply chain. Key revenue streams include in-store sales from its extensive product range and seasonal merchandise. Dollarama also benefits from private label products, which help to enhance profit margins. The company maintains strong relationships with suppliers to negotiate favorable pricing, enabling it to keep costs low. Significant factors contributing to its earnings include its widespread store presence across Canada, a growing customer base, and the strategic expansion of its product offerings to meet diverse consumer needs.

Dollarama Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 27, 2025
(Q1-2026)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Dec 03, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Dollarama's earnings call reflected a strong financial and operational performance, with notable expansion plans and improved margins. However, challenges persist due to tariffs, consumer confidence, and potential future cost pressures.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Solid Same-Store Sales Growth
Dollarama reported a 4.9% increase in same-store sales with a 3.7% rise in the number of transactions and a 1.2% increase in average transaction size.
Expansion and New Market Entries
Dollarama opened 22 net new stores in Canada and 12 in Latin America, with plans to enter the Mexican market imminently. The company is also pursuing an acquisition of Australia's largest discount retailer.
Strong Financial Performance
Sales increased by 8.2% to over $1.5 billion. Gross margin improved to 44.2% from 43.2% the previous year, and diluted net earnings per share rose by 27.3% to $0.98.
Operational Efficiencies
Lower logistics costs and reduced inventory shrink due to loss prevention initiatives contributed positively to performance.
Negative Updates
Tariff and Macro Environment Challenges
The company is facing counter tariffs on goods imported from the U.S., impacting national brand consumable products. The overall macroeconomic environment remains unpredictable.
Consumer Confidence Concerns
Consumer confidence remains fragile, with a dip in sentiment observed in the early part of the quarter. The uncertain economic outlook could impact future consumer spending.
Potential Future Gross Margin Pressures
While current gross margin performance is strong, there are concerns about future pressures from sales mix, FX, and shipping rates.
Company Guidance
During the Dollarama First Quarter Fiscal 2026 Results Conference Call, management provided several key metrics and guidance for the upcoming year. Same-store sales (SSS) grew by 4.9%, driven by demand for consumables and positive seasonal performance, with Easter notably contributing to this growth. Dollarama opened 22 net new stores in Canada, bringing the total to 1,638, and plans to open between 70 and 80 new stores by year-end. Internationally, Dollarcity added 12 net new stores, reaching 644 locations across Colombia, Peru, El Salvador, and Guatemala, and is set to enter the Mexican market imminently. Sales increased by 8.2% to over $1.5 billion, while Q1 gross margin improved to 44.2% from 43.2% in the previous year, due to lower logistics costs and inventory shrink. EBITDA reached $496.2 million, with an EBITDA margin of 32.6%. The company plans to maintain its gross margin guidance between 44.2% and 45.2% and continue disciplined capital allocation. Dollarama is also pursuing an acquisition in Australia, with integration plans actively underway. Despite macroeconomic uncertainties, Dollarama remains focused on delivering value to customers, leveraging its strengths, and executing growth strategies.

Dollarama Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Dollarama demonstrates robust financial performance with consistent revenue growth, strong profitability, and effective cash flow management. However, the high debt-to-equity ratio presents a leverage risk that requires monitoring.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Dollarama shows strong financial performance with consistent revenue growth and solid profitability. The TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) gross profit margin is 45.3%, and the net profit margin is 18.8%. Revenue grew by 10.1% from 2024 to 2025, indicating a positive growth trajectory. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 27.2% and 33.9% respectively, highlighting operational efficiency. Overall, Dollarama's income statement reflects a healthy business with strong growth and profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.56, indicating significant leverage which could pose risks during economic downturns. However, the return on equity is impressive at 92.9% for TTM, driven by high net income. The equity ratio stands at 20.1%, suggesting moderate financial stability. While the company effectively utilizes its equity to generate returns, the high leverage warrants careful monitoring.
Cash Flow
78
Positive
Dollarama's cash flow statement showcases strong cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 1.37 indicates efficient cash conversion. Free cash flow grew by 10.5% from 2024 to 2025, reflecting effective cash management. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.16, underscoring the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net earnings. Overall, Dollarama's cash flow situation is strong, supporting its growth and debt service.
BreakdownTTMMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue6.53B6.41B5.87B5.05B4.33B4.03B
Gross Profit2.96B2.89B2.61B2.20B1.90B1.77B
EBITDA2.21B2.15B1.81B1.48B1.25B1.11B
Net Income1.23B1.17B1.01B801.86M663.17M564.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets6.57B6.48B5.26B4.82B4.06B4.22B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments229.01M122.69M313.92M101.26M71.06M439.14M
Total Debt4.70B4.71B4.33B4.21B3.61B3.46B
Total Liabilities5.25B5.29B4.88B4.79B4.13B3.89B
Stockholders Equity1.32B1.19B380.85M28.41M-66.03M334.85M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow1.43B1.40B1.25B712.22M906.37M721.25M
Operating Cash Flow1.68B1.64B1.53B869.04M1.07B889.08M
Investing Cash Flow-200.80M-224.14M-250.87M-156.55M-158.67M-264.52M
Financing Cash Flow-1.54B-1.61B-966.62M-682.29M-1.28B-275.88M

Dollarama Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price192.07
Price Trends
50DMA
190.83
Positive
100DMA
180.67
Positive
200DMA
162.23
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.47
Positive
RSI
50.57
Neutral
STOCH
29.47
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:DOL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 192.07 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 192.47, above the 50-day MA of 190.83, and above the 200-day MA of 162.23, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 50.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.47 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:DOL.

Dollarama Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
$53.09B43.9894.57%0.21%9.20%18.11%
75
Outperform
C$2.07B12.9514.38%2.67%0.57%8.54%
63
Neutral
$20.46B14.47-3.60%3.13%2.63%-6.18%
$6.91B18.2413.84%2.85%
$5.45B38.8223.27%
$6.91B12.3913.84%4.08%
72
Outperform
C$2.62B28.06126.66%1.20%5.18%17.66%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:DOL
Dollarama
185.07
48.97
35.98%
TSE:LNF
Leon's Furniture
29.98
0.76
2.60%
CDNTF
Canadian Tire
179.14
17.04
10.51%
ATZAF
Aritzia
57.48
23.82
70.77%
CDNAF
Canadian Tire
124.50
15.38
14.09%
TSE:PET
Pet Valu Holdings Ltd.
38.15
14.51
61.38%

Dollarama Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Dollarama Enters Australian Market with Acquisition of The Reject Shop
Positive
Jul 22, 2025

Dollarama has completed its acquisition of The Reject Shop, Australia’s largest discount retailer, marking its entry into the Australian market. This strategic move is expected to enhance Dollarama’s international growth strategy by leveraging its expertise in sourcing, merchandising, and retail operations to deliver value to Australian consumers and expand its market presence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DOL) stock is a Hold with a C$138.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollarama stock, see the TSE:DOL Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
Dollarama Announces $600 Million Private Offering of Senior Unsecured Notes
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

Dollarama Inc. announced a private offering of $600 million in senior unsecured notes, which are due in December 2030 and carry an interest rate of 3.850% per annum. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening Dollarama’s financial position and operational flexibility. The notes have been assigned a provisional BBB (high) rating by DBRS Limited and are being offered in Canada through a private placement, highlighting Dollarama’s strategic financial management and its focus on maintaining a stable credit profile.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DOL) stock is a Hold with a C$128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollarama stock, see the TSE:DOL Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Dollarama Announces Election of Board of Directors
Neutral
Jun 11, 2025

Dollarama Inc. announced the election of its board of directors at the annual shareholders meeting, with all nominees listed in the management proxy circular being elected. This election reflects the company’s stable governance structure, which is crucial for maintaining its market position and operational continuity, benefiting stakeholders by ensuring consistent leadership.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DOL) stock is a Hold with a C$128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollarama stock, see the TSE:DOL Stock Forecast page.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dollarama Reports Strong Q1 2026 Results and Expands Internationally
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Dollarama Inc. reported strong financial results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, with an 8.2% increase in sales to $1,521.2 million and a 26.9% rise in net earnings to $273.8 million. The company attributes this growth to increased store numbers, strong demand for consumables, and successful seasonal offerings. Dollarama is also advancing its international expansion plans with the imminent opening of its first stores in Mexico and the anticipated acquisition of Australia’s largest discount retailer, The Reject Shop, which is expected to close by the end of July.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:DOL) stock is a Hold with a C$128.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Dollarama stock, see the TSE:DOL Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025