SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:SRU.UN)
TSX:SRU.UN
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SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust
(TSX:SRU.UN)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$32.00
▲(11.46% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven by strong technical uptrend signals and attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield), supported by a positive earnings-call outlook on NOI, occupancy, and liquidity. The main offset is financial risk from meaningful leverage and weaker debt coverage, alongside an elevated payout ratio and the near-term Toys“R”Us vacancy impact.
Positive Factors
High Occupancy and Cash Collections
Very high occupancy and near‑100% cash collections create durable, predictable rental cash flow that supports distributions and underwriting of development projects. Over 2–6 months this reduces earnings volatility and tenant default risk, strengthening AFFO reliability and operational resilience.
Negative Factors
High Leverage and Limited Debt Coverage
Material leverage and weak cash‑flow coverage increase refinancing and interest‑rate sensitivity, constraining flexibility to pursue opportunistic growth or absorb shocks. Over the next few quarters, elevated leverage makes deleveraging and covenant management a priority and a potential drag on risk tolerance.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High Occupancy and Cash Collections
Very high occupancy and near‑100% cash collections create durable, predictable rental cash flow that supports distributions and underwriting of development projects. Over 2–6 months this reduces earnings volatility and tenant default risk, strengthening AFFO reliability and operational resilience.
Read all positive factors
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust (SRU.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.95B
Dividend Yield7.22%
Average Volume (3M)328.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)10.8
Beta (1Y)0.65
Revenue Growth-1.84%
EPS Growth48.17%
CountryCA
Employees342
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Retail
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.12
Shares Outstanding144,687,640
10 Day Avg. Volume359,972
30 Day Avg. Volume328,771
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.03
Price to Book (P/B)0.88
Price to Sales (P/S)4.95
P/FCF Ratio12.23
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$30.30Price Target Upside5.54% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.96
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$964.83M
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust is one of Canada's largest fully integrated REITs, with a best-in-class portfolio featuring 166 strategically located properties in communities across the country. SmartCentres has approximately $10.4 bill...
How the Company Makes Money
SmartCentres generates the majority of its income from leasing real estate. (1) Rental revenue: Tenants (including large anchor tenants and smaller retailers and service providers) pay base rent under lease agreements for space in SmartCentres’ pr...
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed strong operational performance across occupancy, same-property NOI (notably higher when excluding anchors and one credit provision), high cash collections, clear development momentum (including an 8-plus percent expected return on the Toronto Premium Outlets expansion), improved liquidity and balance-sheet flexibility (over $1 billion liquidity, 90% fixed-rate debt, $10 billion unencumbered assets). Key near-term negatives were the Toys"R"Us insolvency impact (six leases terminated, short-term vacancy/provisioning and timing to reletting), and a relatively high adjusted debt/EBITDA (9.7x) and elevated payout ratio (89.2%), which left investors focused on deleveraging and disposition execution. Overall, the positives (operating strength, development pipeline, liquidity and asset quality) materially outweighed the manageable near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Very High Portfolio Occupancy
Ending occupancy of 98.6% at year-end, unchanged from prior quarter, supported by strong tenant demand and high tenant retention.
Negative Updates
Toys"R"Us Bankruptcy Impact
Toys filed for creditor protection after year-end; REIT had already terminated 6 leases and taken control of the space. Short-term impact: modest reduction in occupancy (estimated apples-to-apples drop from 98.6% to ~98.3%) and increased provisioning — management expects to re-lease at least half the locations soon at higher rents, but some vacancy and timing drag (Q1 impact) is expected.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Very High Portfolio Occupancy
Ending occupancy of 98.6% at year-end, unchanged from prior quarter, supported by strong tenant demand and high tenant retention.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
SmartCentres guided that same‑property NOI should be roughly in the 7% range for 2026 (similar ex‑Toys), noting Q4/2025 same‑property NOI of +2.9% (+5.1% ex‑anchors; +4.5% excluding a credit provision) and +3.7% for the year (+5.6% ex‑anchors); management expects the portfolio to maintain strong fundamentals with year‑end occupancy at 98.6% (an apples‑to‑apples ToysRUs impact could lower this to ~98.3% before re‑letting at least half of the six vacated sites), 88% of 5.3M sq ft of expiries extended, rental spreads of 8.4% ex‑anchors (6.3% all‑in), and cash collections near 99%. Balance‑sheet guidance emphasized conservative metrics and flexibility: >$1.0B liquidity, 90% fixed‑rate debt, a $10B unencumbered asset pool, adjusted debt/EBITDA of 9.7x, and a weighted average debt term of 3.4 years, while distributions are being maintained at $1.85/unit (FY2025 AFFO payout ~89.2%). Development and disposition priorities include 8 projects under construction, a Toronto Premium Outlets expansion of ~85–90k sq ft (expected >8% yield; construction start this summer; rents late‑2027/2028), ~200–300k sq ft of retail starting in 2026, roughly 60–70M sq ft of permitted density across the portfolio, and a $200–300M PUD disposition target over the next couple of years.SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
64
Positive
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 929.78M | 927.28M | 918.36M | 929.40M | 804.60M | 780.76M |
| Gross Profit | 565.49M | 563.04M | 547.51M | 608.38M | 521.16M | 501.24M |
| EBITDA | 628.59M | 486.19M | 478.63M | 681.02M | 498.73M | 686.84M |
| Net Income | 365.01M | 251.81M | 236.75M | 413.70M | 811.11M | 475.28M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 12.29B | 12.14B | 11.94B | 11.91B | 11.70B | 11.29B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.51M | 51.55M | 37.69M | 34.74M | 35.26M | 62.23M |
| Total Debt | 5.26B | 5.21B | 5.05B | 5.00B | 4.98B | 4.85B |
| Total Liabilities | 5.89B | 5.79B | 5.60B | 5.55B | 5.54B | 5.45B |
| Stockholders Equity | 5.27B | 5.23B | 5.24B | 5.27B | 5.13B | 4.88B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 370.09M | 375.48M | 373.66M | 328.95M | 369.17M | 371.27M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 372.15M | 377.44M | 374.21M | 330.85M | 370.76M | 371.62M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -184.88M | -186.20M | -155.53M | 1.52M | -121.39M | -413.17M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -179.39M | -177.38M | -215.73M | -332.89M | -276.35M | -690.81M |
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust Technical Analysis
Positive
28.71
Price Trends
27.64
Positive
27.11
Positive
26.21
Positive
Market Momentum
0.25
Negative
68.52
Neutral
89.39
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SRU.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 28.71 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 28.35, above the 50-day MA of 27.64, and above the 200-day MA of 26.21, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.25 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.39 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SRU.UN.
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$2.28B | 12.12 | 7.79% | 5.52% | 25.61% | 162.10% | |
74 Outperform | C$4.95B | 10.78 | 7.00% | 7.22% | -1.84% | 48.17% | |
73 Outperform | C$4.31B | 8.51 | 15.35% | 5.74% | 4.54% | 19.18% | |
71 Outperform | C$495.85M | 9.29 | 10.53% | 6.56% | 3.46% | 135.29% | |
69 Neutral | C$5.01B | 11.88 | 24.22% | 4.71% | 0.35% | 399.29% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.