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First Capital Realty (TSE:FCR.UN)
TSX:FCR.UN
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First Capital Realty (FCR.UN) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:FCR.UN

First Capital Realty

(TSX:FCR.UN)

Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$20.50
▲(8.47%Upside)
The overall stock score of 74 for First Capital Realty reflects a solid financial performance and strong technical indicators, boosted by robust operational execution and strategic financial management. However, challenges in revenue consistency and macroeconomic uncertainties pose potential risks. The company’s valuation and dividends offer additional support for the stock’s attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Asset Sales Strategy
The REIT's asset sales strategy focuses on non-core properties, achieving a sale price 25% above the IFRS value for a Montreal site.
Leasing and Rent Growth
Leasing activity remains strong, and the runway for rent growth is long.
Portfolio Quality and Management
FCR's portfolio quality, operating momentum, and management's continued focus on debt reduction are considered positive.
Negative Factors
Business Plan Execution
Failure to execute on the three-year business plan is the primary risk.
Economic Outlook
The near-term economic outlook has become increasingly uncertain due to lower immigration targets and the threat of a protracted trade dispute with the U.S.
Interest Expenses
Interest expense rose due to refinancing debt maturities at higher interest rates, increasing FCR's weighted average interest rate.

First Capital Realty (FCR.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

First Capital Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFirst Capital is a leading developer, owner and manager of mixed-use real estate located in Canada's most densely populated cities. First Capital's focus is on creating thriving urban neighbourhoods to generate value for businesses, residents, communities and our investors.
How the Company Makes MoneyFirst Capital Realty makes money primarily through rental income generated from its extensive portfolio of urban retail properties. The company leases space to a diverse range of tenants, including supermarkets, drugstores, banks, and restaurants, which provide stable and recurring cash flows. Additionally, First Capital Realty enhances its revenue by strategically developing and redeveloping properties to increase their value and attractiveness to tenants. The company may also engage in selective property sales to optimize its portfolio and recycle capital into higher-growth opportunities. Partnerships with leading retailers and a focus on prime urban locations further contribute to its financial performance.

First Capital Realty Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 11.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 29, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a strong operational performance with record-high occupancy and robust leasing activity. However, the reduced disposition targets and macroeconomic uncertainty present challenges. The company's development target increase and consistent demand for leasing offer positive signs, but the external economic environment poses potential risks.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record High Occupancy
Q1 occupancy matched an all-time high of 96.9%, which was last set in Q4 of 2019. Rents in place are notably higher today than they were then.
Strong Leasing Activity
Over 500,000 square feet were renewed with a year one renewal rent increase of 13.6%, above the long-term average. Additionally, new leasing covered about 90,000 square feet across 42 spaces, achieving an average year one rent of approximately $32 per square foot.
Development Completion Target Increased
Development completions are now expected to be $300 million over the three-year plan versus $200 million previously, indicating progress ahead of initial expectations.
Same Property NOI Growth
Same property cash NOI grew by 5.3%, driven primarily by higher rents, exceeding internal business plan expectations.
Positive Leasing Market Outlook
Continued strong demand and leasing activity with no signs of slowdown despite macroeconomic uncertainties.
Negative Updates
Reduced Disposition Targets
Dispositions target lowered to $750 million over three years from the initial $1 billion due to increased macroeconomic uncertainty.
Year-over-Year FFO Decline
Operating FFO per unit fell to $0.321 from $0.365 in Q1 2024, though adjustments for non-recurring items show a 9% growth.
Market Uncertainty
The macroeconomic environment has become more uncertain and volatile, impacting disposition timing and potentially affecting future operations.
Company Guidance
During the Q1 2025 Conference Call, the guidance provided highlighted several key metrics. The REIT's same-property cash NOI grew by 5.3% before lease termination fees and bad debt, driven by higher rents. Occupancy reached an all-time high of 96.9%, with average net rent hitting a record $24.23 per square foot. Renewal rental rates in year one of the renewal term averaged $24.91 per square foot, marking a 13.6% increase, with 74% of renewed leases including rent escalations. The REIT is on track to meet its three-year strategic plan goals, which include at least 3% growth in operating FFO per unit and achieving a net debt-to-adjusted EBITDA ratio in the low 8 times range by 2026. Development completions are expected to total $300 million, while dispositions are revised to $750 million over the three-year period. Operating FFO per unit grew approximately 5%, and debt-to-EBITDA improved to 8.9 times. The REIT remains confident in strong leasing activity and a positive outlook amid macroeconomic uncertainties.

First Capital Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary
First Capital Realty demonstrates a reasonable financial performance with strengths in profitability and cash flow generation, although it faces challenges in revenue consistency and leveraging. The company is recovering well from past volatilities, showcasing improvements in key financial metrics. However, continued focus on revenue growth and maintaining a balanced capital structure will be crucial for future stability and growth.
Income Statement
72
Positive
The company's income statement shows a moderate level of profitability and stability. The gross profit margin for TTM is a healthy 62.91%, indicating strong cost control and efficient operations. However, the net profit margin has improved to 29.68% from a negative position in 2023, reflecting significant recovery but also recent volatility. Revenue growth is inconsistent, with a slight increase from the previous year, indicating challenges in consistent revenue generation.
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a solid equity base with a debt-to-equity ratio of 1.02, suggesting a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity for TTM is 5.39%, indicating moderate profitability relative to shareholder equity. However, the equity ratio of 43.37% shows a stable financial structure, though there is room for improvement in asset utilization efficiency.
Cash Flow
75
Positive
The cash flow statement indicates robust cash generation capabilities. The free cash flow growth rate is slightly negative at -0.96% in the latest period, but the operating cash flow to net income ratio is 1.09, indicating strong cash flow relative to net earnings. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.51 further supports a solid cash position, despite some fluctuations in free cash flow growth.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue713.52M755.87M712.20M674.89M672.89M
Gross Profit447.29M493.14M444.61M411.94M399.03M
EBITDA386.27M445.48M3.15M373.67M194.71M
Net Income204.93M-134.06M-160.00M460.13M2.70M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.18B9.19B9.58B10.11B10.03B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments153.54M90.22M36.03M60.67M104.16M
Total Debt4.05B4.09B4.14B4.43B4.79B
Total Liabilities5.17B5.19B5.25B5.44B5.78B
Stockholders Equity3.95B3.93B4.28B4.62B4.23B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow110.02M84.71M126.21M96.09M14.47M
Operating Cash Flow233.79M227.73M251.22M249.61M219.50M
Investing Cash Flow33.38M83.69M133.98M154.89M10.23M
Financing Cash Flow-204.30M-256.70M-387.21M-470.25M-154.79M

First Capital Realty Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.90
Price Trends
50DMA
17.78
Positive
100DMA
17.10
Positive
200DMA
16.95
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.31
Negative
RSI
64.29
Neutral
STOCH
83.92
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FCR.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.31, above the 50-day MA of 17.78, and above the 200-day MA of 16.95, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.31 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 64.29 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.92 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FCR.UN.

First Capital Realty Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (70)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
74
Outperform
C$4.02B18.715.40%4.83%3.11%
70
Outperform
¥232.21B14.5410.69%3.80%18.27%21.04%
$3.90B20.753.61%0.47%
82
Outperform
C$3.76B8.4611.23%6.08%4.54%68.32%
78
Outperform
C$4.43B18.814.75%7.14%10.06%-19.26%
75
Outperform
C$3.35B14.724.92%5.88%6.68%14.72%
70
Neutral
C$2.74B-0.49%6.01%6.96%85.15%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FCR.UN
First Capital Realty
18.74
3.34
21.69%
RIOCF
RioCan Real Estate Investment
13.20
0.96
7.84%
TSE:CRR.UN
Crombie Real Estate ate
14.71
1.73
13.33%
TSE:CRT.UN
CT Real Estate Investment
15.85
2.17
15.86%
TSE:DIR.UN
Dream Industrl REIT
11.91
-1.08
-8.31%
TSE:SRU.UN
SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust
25.99
3.43
15.20%

First Capital Realty Corporate Events

Dividends
First Capital REIT Declares July 2025 Cash Distribution
Positive
Jul 15, 2025

First Capital REIT announced a cash distribution of $0.074167 per REIT unit for July 2025, equating to $0.89 annually per unit. This distribution reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its unitholders and highlights its stable financial operations within the Canadian real estate market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First Capital REIT Schedules Q2 2025 Financial Results Call
Neutral
Jun 25, 2025

First Capital REIT has announced a conference call scheduled for July 30, 2025, to discuss its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025. The announcement reflects First Capital’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, providing insights into its financial performance and strategic positioning in the Canadian real estate market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
First Capital REIT Completes C$300 Million Debenture Offering
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

First Capital REIT has successfully completed a C$300 million offering of Series E senior unsecured debentures, which were issued on a private placement basis. The debentures, rated ‘BBB’ with a ‘Positive’ outlook by Morningstar DBRS, will bear interest at 4.832% per annum and mature in 2033. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing debt, including the full repayment of the REIT’s Series S Debentures due in July 2025, and for general business purposes. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen First Capital’s financial position and support its ongoing operations.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
First Capital REIT Launches C$300 Million Debenture Offering
Positive
Jun 12, 2025

First Capital REIT announced a C$300 million offering of Series E senior unsecured debentures, set to mature in 2033, with a 4.832% interest rate. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt, including the full repayment of Series S Debentures due in July 2025, and for general business purposes, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
First Capital REIT Declares May 2025 Cash Distribution
Positive
May 15, 2025

First Capital REIT announced a cash distribution of $0.074167 per REIT unit for May, amounting to $0.89 per unit annually. This distribution, payable on June 16, 2025, reflects the company’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its unitholders, reinforcing its position in the Canadian real estate market.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
First Capital Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Robust Leasing
Positive
May 6, 2025

First Capital reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, driven by robust leasing activity and strategic capital allocation. The company achieved a total portfolio occupancy of 96.9%, matching its all-time high, and reported a 5.3% growth in Same Property NOI, excluding certain expenses. Despite a decrease in Operating FFO per unit due to a prior year’s assignment fee, First Capital’s fundamentals remain strong, supporting stability and growth in cash flow.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 16, 2025