First Capital Realty (FCR.UN) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$4.34B
• Dividend Yield: 4.71%
• Average Volume (3M): 277.79K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 3.8
• Beta (1Y): 0.51
• Revenue Growth: -0.83%
• EPS Growth: -28.93%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 364
• Sector: Real Estate
• Sector Strength: 53
• Industry: REIT - Retail
• EPS (TTM): 3.95
• Shares Outstanding: 212,452,420
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 223,063
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 277,785
• PEG Ratio: <0.01
• Price to Book (P/B): 0.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.49
• P/FCF Ratio: 67.13
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$22.71
• Price Target Upside: 11.21% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Moderate Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.3
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$757.05M

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$22.50 ▲(10.19% Upside)
• Action: Upgraded Date: 02/18/26
• Date: Action: Upgraded 02/18/26

The score is driven mainly by solid (but not pristine) financial performance—strong margins and acceptable leverage tempered by uneven revenue and weaker free-cash-flow quality—plus constructive technical momentum. Valuation is notably attractive (low P/E and healthy yield), while earnings-call guidance and sentiment are supportive but include clear near-term growth and financing headwinds.

Positive Factors

Strong same‑property NOI and leasing

Consistent same-property NOI growth and robust leasing metrics indicate durable rent-setting power and tenant demand in urban retail nodes. Large renewal volume with double-digit rent lifts and substantial new leasing support sustainable rental income, underpinning long-term NOI and redevelopment economics.

High occupancy and record rental rates

Near-full occupancy and record in-place rents reflect strong market positioning of grocery-anchored and mixed-use urban centres. High physical occupancy reduces downside vacancy risk, supports renewal pricing, and improves predictability of rental cash flows across economic cycles.

Improved liquidity and debt maturity profile

Substantial liquidity, a large unencumbered asset pool and extended maturities materially reduce near-term refinancing risk and provide strategic optionality. This balance-sheet flexibility supports planned development, selective dispositions, and weathering higher-rate environments without forcing asset sales.

Negative Factors

Weak free cash flow / cash conversion

Sharply lower free cash flow and weak cash conversion relative to accounting earnings reduce internal funding available for distributions, capex or deleveraging. Persistent timing swings from development receipts and non‑cash valuation items could constrain capital allocation and distribution resilience over coming quarters.

Higher interest costs from recent refinancing

A meaningful step-up in funding costs increases fixed interest burden and compresses cash available for reinvestment or distributions. If higher rates persist, borrowing expense will permanently reduce net cashflow margins and slow progress toward targeted leverage metrics.

Development fair-value markdowns & disposition execution risk

Material fair-value reductions on density projects plus a tough sale market for low‑yield, density‑rich assets create execution risk for capital recycling. This can delay monetization, pressure NAV growth and reduce returns from redevelopment if demand/pricing for increased-density assets remains selective.

First Capital Realty Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

First Capital is a leading developer, owner and manager of mixed-use real estate located in Canada's most densely populated cities. First Capital's focus is on creating thriving urban neighbourhoods to generate value for businesses, residents, communities and our investors.

How the Company Makes Money

First Capital Realty generates revenue primarily through leasing its retail and mixed-use properties to tenants, which include a diverse mix of national and local retailers. The company earns rental income from long-term lease agreements, typically structured to provide a stable cash flow. Additionally, FCR.UN benefits from ancillary income sources such as parking fees, property management services, and leasing commissions. Significant partnerships with well-known retailers enhance tenant quality and occupancy rates, contributing positively to the company’s earnings. Moreover, the company’s strategic focus on urban centers with high population density and favorable demographics supports its revenue growth by attracting a steady stream of consumers to its properties.

First Capital Realty Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong and consistent operating margins and a balance sheet that is leveraged but broadly sector-typical with improvement in 2025. Offsetting these positives are choppy revenue, volatile reported earnings (real-estate fair value/non-recurring swings), and weaker cash conversion with sharply lower free cash flow in 2025, raising earnings-quality and distribution flexibility risk.

Income Statement

Revenue has been choppy, with declines in 2024 and 2025 after modest growth in 2022–2023. Core profitability looks strong with consistently high gross and operating margins, but bottom-line results have been volatile (losses in 2022–2023 and very large profit in 2025), suggesting earnings are influenced by non-recurring items and valuation/gain/loss swings typical in real estate.

Balance Sheet

Leverage is meaningful but not extreme for a retail REIT, with debt-to-equity generally around ~0.8–1.1 and improving in 2025 alongside a higher equity base. Returns on equity have been volatile (negative in 2022–2023, modest in 2024, strong in 2025), which reduces predictability even though the asset base remains sizable and relatively stable.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow has been steady in a narrow range, but free cash flow is more volatile and fell sharply in 2025. Cash generation appears weaker than accounting earnings in 2025, with free cash flow covering only a modest portion of net income, indicating earnings quality/cash conversion risk and less flexibility for distributions, reinvestment, or deleveraging during weaker periods.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	731.24M	712.59M	752.07M	712.20M	683.81M
Gross Profit	459.94M	446.35M	489.34M	444.61M	420.86M
EBITDA	458.78M	389.88M	441.68M	404.62M	373.37M
Net Income	1.06B	204.93M	-134.06M	-160.00M	460.13M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.23B	9.18B	9.19B	9.58B	10.11B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	57.17M	153.54M	90.22M	36.03M	74.06M
Total Debt	3.99B	4.05B	4.09B	4.14B	4.43B
Total Liabilities	4.34B	5.17B	5.19B	5.25B	5.44B
Stockholders Equity	4.82B	3.95B	3.93B	4.28B	4.62B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	59.81M	110.02M	84.71M	126.21M	96.09M
Operating Cash Flow	206.71M	233.79M	227.73M	251.22M	249.61M
Investing Cash Flow	-50.88M	33.38M	83.69M	133.98M	154.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-252.50M	-204.30M	-256.70M	-387.21M	-470.25M

First Capital Realty Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 20.42
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FCR.UN, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.42 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.94, above the 50-day MA of 20.32, and above the 200-day MA of 18.93, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.64 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:FCR.UN.

First Capital Realty Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PMZ.UN	75 Outperform	C$1.99B	10.72	6.52%	5.52%	26.88%	77.26%
CRR.UN	74 Outperform	C$2.92B	24.31	6.29%	5.82%	6.32%	―
FCR.UN	73 Outperform	C$4.34B	3.77	25.30%	4.71%	-0.83%	-28.93%
CRT.UN	73 Outperform	C$3.89B	7.47	18.40%	5.74%	4.11%	35.99%
SRU.UN	71 Outperform	C$4.52B	18.23	4.85%	7.22%	0.48%	96.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%
REI.UN	55 Neutral	$5.48B	79.85	0.92%	6.21%	22.22%	-71.38%

First Capital Realty Corporate Events

First Capital REIT Declares February 2026 Monthly Distribution

First Capital REIT has declared a cash distribution of $0.076 per REIT unit for February 2026, equivalent to $0.912 per unit on an annualized basis. The payment is scheduled for March 16, 2026 to unitholders of record as of February 27, 2026, underscoring the REIT’s ongoing income return to investors and the stability of its grocery-anchored retail property strategy.

This monthly distribution announcement reinforces First Capital’s focus on providing consistent cash returns aligned with its core portfolio of open-air shopping centres. The payout level signals continuity in its distribution policy, which may be seen by income-focused investors as an indicator of steady cash flow from its Canadian neighbourhood retail assets.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT posts strong 2025 results on leasing gains and high occupancy

First Capital REIT reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, driven by its grocery-anchored portfolio and disciplined capital allocation strategy. Operating FFO per unit rose to $0.34 in the quarter, up 7% year over year, while total portfolio occupancy improved to 97.1%, and net asset value per unit increased to $22.57.

Same property NOI growth reached 5.7% in the quarter excluding certain items, supported by robust leasing activity that produced a 15.8% lease renewal lift and higher average net rents per occupied square foot. Management said the REIT remains on track in the final year of its three-year strategic plan, as stable balance sheet metrics and continued property dispositions and development spending position the trust for sustained performance for unitholders.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT Raises Annual Distribution by 2.5%

First Capital REIT has approved a 2.5% increase in its annualized distribution to $0.912 per unit, paid monthly, with the higher payout effective for unitholders of record as of January 30, 2026. The January distribution will be $0.076 per unit, payable on February 16, 2026, signaling management’s confidence in the REIT’s cash flow and potentially enhancing returns for income-focused investors in Canada’s retail real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results Call

First Capital REIT has scheduled a live conference call with senior management for February 11, 2026, to discuss its financial results for the fourth quarter ended December 31, 2025, with the financial statements and MD&A to be released beforehand on its website and via Canadian securities regulators’ disclosure platform. The company is providing investors with multiple access options, including teleconference and webcast with replay availability, underlining its ongoing emphasis on transparent communication and accessibility for unitholders and analysts ahead of its year-end disclosure.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT Completes C$250 Million Debenture Offering

First Capital REIT has completed a C$250 million offering of Series G senior unsecured debentures, which were issued at a price of $99.986 per $100.00 principal amount and bear interest at 4.760% per annum, maturing on February 15, 2035. The proceeds from this offering will be used to partially repay the early redemption of the REIT’s C$300 million Series T senior unsecured debentures. This strategic financial move is expected to strengthen First Capital’s financial position and enhance its market competitiveness.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT Announces Debenture Offering and Redemption Plan

First Capital REIT has announced a C$250 million offering of Series G senior unsecured debentures, with the proceeds intended to partially fund the redemption of C$300 million in Series T senior unsecured debentures. This strategic financial move aims to optimize First Capital’s debt structure, potentially enhancing its financial flexibility and market positioning within the Canadian real estate sector.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT Completes Internal Reorganization

First Capital REIT has completed an internal reorganization by eliminating First Capital Realty Inc. as its wholly-owned subsidiary, simplifying its organizational structure. This reorganization does not alter the company’s strategy, portfolio, or operations, maintaining its focus on grocery-anchored shopping centers in Canada.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.

First Capital REIT Secures Unitholder Approval for Reorganization

First Capital REIT has received overwhelming unitholder approval for its internal reorganization plan, with 99.58% of votes cast in favor during a special meeting. This reorganization, subject to court approval, is expected to be effective by the end of November 2025 and aims to streamline the company’s operations, potentially enhancing its market positioning and providing benefits to stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:FCR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on First Capital Realty stock, see the TSE:FCR.UN Stock Forecast page.