Dream Industrl REIT (TSE:DIR.UN)
TSX:DIR.UN
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Dream Industrl REIT
(TSX:DIR.UN)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$14.50
â–²(10.69% Upside)
Action:DowngradedDate:03/03/26
The score is driven primarily by solid (but not pristine) financial performance—steady revenue and strong property-level profitability offset by earnings volatility, meaningful leverage, and softer free-cash-flow growth—while the latest earnings call adds support via constructive 2026 FFO/NOI guidance, strong leasing metrics, and improved liquidity. Technical signals are neutral-to-mildly positive, and valuation is balanced by a strong yield but a relatively high P/E.
Positive Factors
High occupancy & tenant retention
Sustained ~96% occupancy and ~70% tenant retention underpin durable rental cash flows and lower vacancy/leasing downtime. High in-place occupancy reduces re-leasing risk, stabilizes FFO and supports long-term NOI visibility across economic cycles, aiding payout sustainability.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage (net debt/EBITDA)
A ~7.9x net debt/EBITDA profile leaves limited balance-sheet flexibility and raises refinancing sensitivity to higher rates. Elevated leverage can amplify earnings volatility, constrain acquisition capacity, and increase interest burden, reducing downside protection in slower leasing cycles.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
High occupancy & tenant retention
Sustained ~96% occupancy and ~70% tenant retention underpin durable rental cash flows and lower vacancy/leasing downtime. High in-place occupancy reduces re-leasing risk, stabilizes FFO and supports long-term NOI visibility across economic cycles, aiding payout sustainability.
Read all positive factors
Dream Industrl REIT (DIR.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.69B
Dividend Yield5.56%
Average Volume (3M)555.72K
Price to Earnings (P/E)21.6
Beta (1Y)0.99
Revenue Growth7.31%
EPS Growth74.70%
CountryCA
Employees500
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.10
Shares Outstanding281,344,600
10 Day Avg. Volume669,792
30 Day Avg. Volume555,721
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.61
Price to Book (P/B)0.77
Price to Sales (P/S)7.24
P/FCF Ratio26.17
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$15.00Price Target Upside14.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.08
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$529.80M
Dream Industrl REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Dream Industrial REIT is an unincorporated, open-ended real estate investment trust. As at September 30, 2020, Dream Industrial REIT owns and operates a portfolio of 266 industrial properties comprising approximately 26.6 million square feet of gr...
How the Company Makes Money
Dream Industrial REIT generates revenue primarily through leasing its industrial properties to a diverse range of tenants, including logistics companies, manufacturers, and retailers. The company's revenue model is based on long-term leases, which...
Dream Industrl REIT Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 17, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed resilience and multiple positive operating and financial developments: FFO per unit growth, double-digit leasing spreads, high occupancy (96.2%), strong CPNOI growth (Q4 +8.4%, FY ~5.7%), significant dispositions and liquidity (~$375M first tranche, >$700M available), credit upgrade, and growing ancillary businesses (solar, private capital). Challenges remain from tariff-driven leasing headwinds earlier in 2025, some market-specific oversupply (notably Quebec large-bay/sublease), a slight NAV dip due to transaction costs, and near-term timing impacts as disposition proceeds are deployed (Q1 FFO guidance slightly lower). Overall, the positive operational momentum, strong leasing metrics, balance sheet actions and forward guidance outweigh the transitory headwinds and timing issues.Positive Updates
FFO Per Unit Growth
Full-year diluted FFO per unit of $1.05, up ~4.9%–5% year-over-year; Q4 diluted FFO per unit $0.27, up 5.3% year-over-year. 2026 FFO per unit guidance $1.08–$1.10 (implies ~2.9%–4.8% potential full-year increase).
Negative Updates
Tariff-Related Disruptions and Volatility
2025 experienced significant volatility and unprecedented global trade changes; tariff-related disruptions slowed leasing activity and affected roughly one-third of early 2025, muting market rent development for over two years.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
FFO Per Unit Growth
Full-year diluted FFO per unit of $1.05, up ~4.9%–5% year-over-year; Q4 diluted FFO per unit $0.27, up 5.3% year-over-year. 2026 FFO per unit guidance $1.08–$1.10 (implies ~2.9%–4.8% potential full-year increase).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Dream Industrial guided to 2026 FFO per unit of $1.08–$1.10 (versus $1.05 in 2025 and Q4 diluted FFO/unit of $0.27), with Q1 expected to be slightly below Q4 as sale proceeds are deployed and quarterly run‑rates accelerating thereafter; average in‑place occupancy is expected to remain in the high‑94% to low‑96% range (year‑end 2025 in‑place/committed occupancy 96.2%, tenant retention ~70%), and management expects comparative‑properties NOI growth in H1 roughly in line with Q4‑2025’s ~8.4% (2025 full‑year CPNOI ~5.7–6%), with full‑year 2026 CPNOI forecasted to be stronger than 2025 depending on leasing timing. Balance‑sheet assumptions include average leverage in the low‑ to mid‑7x net debt‑to‑EBITDA range (year‑end net debt/EBITDA 7.9x), available liquidity of over $700M after the first DCI tranche (first DCI tranche net proceeds ~ $375M), deployment weighted to Q2–Q3 into unit buybacks (NCIB: ~2.4M units repurchased at a $13.08 weighted average, ~ $32M), accretive acquisitions (on‑balance pipeline > $350M) and development/private‑capital initiatives, and an expected moderate (low‑to‑mid single‑digit) accretion from the DCI transaction — all subject to current FX and interest‑rate assumptions.Dream Industrl REIT Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
70
Positive
Balance Sheet
66
Positive
Cash Flow
61
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 507.95M | 466.22M | 443.11M | 369.57M | 289.81M |
| Gross Profit | 368.54M | 355.43M | 339.69M | 281.59M | 217.90M |
| EBITDA | 258.27M | 348.53M | 169.78M | 290.26M | 234.02M |
| Net Income | 170.07M | 259.61M | 104.30M | 705.88M | 608.35M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 8.46B | 8.12B | 7.86B | 7.28B | 6.05B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.43M | 80.28M | 49.92M | 83.80M | 164.01M |
| Total Debt | 3.12B | 2.98B | 2.86B | 2.42B | 2.06B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.66B | 3.39B | 3.28B | 2.83B | 2.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 4.79B | 4.73B | 4.57B | 4.45B | 3.50B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 140.62M | 151.31M | 115.84M | 70.78M | 128.14M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 256.15M | 295.73M | 302.39M | 218.39M | 174.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -258.63M | -113.74M | -689.44M | -780.36M | -1.76B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -35.33M | -151.96M | 356.52M | 487.95M | 1.50B |
Dream Industrl REIT Technical Analysis
Positive
13.10
Price Trends
12.83
Positive
12.59
Positive
12.16
Positive
Market Momentum
0.03
Negative
59.64
Neutral
80.34
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:DIR.UN, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.62, above the 50-day MA of 12.83, and above the 200-day MA of 12.16, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.03 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.64 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.34 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:DIR.UN.
Dream Industrl REIT Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
73 Outperform | C$4.15B | 5.06 | 18.40% | 5.74% | 4.11% | 35.99% | |
73 Outperform | C$4.51B | 3.77 | 25.30% | 4.71% | -0.83% | -28.93% | |
71 Outperform | C$5.28B | 9.14 | 6.20% | 4.18% | 9.81% | -3.42% | |
71 Outperform | C$4.73B | 18.23 | 4.85% | 7.22% | 0.48% | 96.32% | |
69 Neutral | C$3.69B | 21.64 | 3.54% | 5.56% | 7.31% | 74.70% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
65 Neutral | C$751.35M | 12.68 | 5.54% | 8.07% | 0.41% | 78.32% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
TSE:DIR.UN
Dream Industrl REIT
13.10
3.30
33.62%
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Dream Industrl REIT Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Dream Industrial REIT Declares February 2026 Monthly Distribution
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Dream Industrial REIT has declared a monthly cash distribution for February 2026 of 5.833 cents per unit, equivalent to 70 cents on an annualized basis. The distribution is scheduled to be paid on March 13, 2026 to unitholders of record as of Febr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Dream Industrial REIT posts solid 2025 results and boosts leasing, development and capital recycling
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
Dream Industrial REIT reported strong full-year 2025 results, with diluted funds from operations per unit rising 4.9% to $1.05 and comparative properties NOI up 5.7% on a constant-currency basis. Net rental income grew 8.3% to $385 million, suppor...
Financial Disclosures
Dream Industrial REIT Sets Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Feb 2, 2026
Dream Industrial REIT announced it will release its financial results for the quarter ended December 31, 2025 on February 17, 2026, followed by a senior management-hosted conference call and simultaneous webcast on February 18, 2026. The scheduled...
Dividends
Dream Industrial REIT Declares January 2026 Monthly Distribution
Positive
Jan 20, 2026
Dream Industrial REIT has declared a monthly cash distribution for January 2026 of 5.833 cents per unit, equivalent to an annualized rate of 70 cents per unit, to be paid on February 13, 2026 to unitholders of record as of January 30, 2026. The an...
Business Operations and StrategyDividends
Dream Industrial REIT Suspends DRIP and Announces December Distribution
Neutral
Dec 17, 2025
Dream Industrial REIT announced its December 2025 monthly distribution of 5.833 cents per unit, payable in January 2026, with the suspension of its Distribution Reinvestment and Unit Purchase Plan (DRIP) until further notice. The decision reflects...
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Dream Industrial REIT and CPP Investments Unveil $3 Billion Industrial Venture
Positive
Dec 17, 2025
Dream Industrial REIT, along with CPP Investments and Dream Asset Management Corporation, has formed a $3 billion joint venture targeting last-mile industrial assets in major Canadian markets. The partnership aims to acquire approximately 3.6 mill...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackM&A Transactions
Dream Industrial REIT Forms $1.1 Billion Joint Venture with CPP Investments
Positive
Dec 17, 2025
Dream Industrial REIT has announced a significant strategic partnership with CPP Investments, creating a joint venture to acquire Canadian industrial assets with $1.1 billion in equity allocation. As part of this move, Dream Industrial REIT is sel...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.