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H&R Real Estate ate Staple (TSE:HR.UN)
TSX:HR.UN

H&R Real Estate ate Staple (HR.UN) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:HR.UN

H&R Real Estate ate Staple

(TSX:HR.UN)

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Neutral 53 (OpenAI - 5.2)
Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.50
▲(6.49% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening reported profitability and a thinner equity cushion, despite still-positive operating/free cash flow. Technical signals are subdued, while valuation is supported by a high dividend yield but undermined by losses (negative P/E). Earnings call commentary was balanced: modest NOI/FFO growth and disciplined payouts offset by industrial weakness, leasing headwinds, and leverage/vacancy risks.
Positive Factors
Positive cash generation
H&R continues to produce operating and free cash flow even in accounting loss years, providing durable internal funding for distributions, debt service and selective reinvestment. This recurring cash generation supports financial flexibility over the next several quarters despite weaker FCF trends.
Residential platform and Sunbelt pipeline
A growing Sunbelt development pipeline and stable resident collections underpin future NOI and occupancy recovery. High retention, generally healthy rent-to-income metrics and forecasted supply declines in 2026 support lasting demand and cash flow upside from completed projects over the medium term.
Disciplined capital recycling and payouts
Management’s conservative payout policy plus material asset dispositions used to reduce leverage reflects active balance-sheet stewardship. Maintaining modest payout ratios while monetizing noncore assets improves resilience and preserves capacity to manage maturities and fund prioritized development.
Negative Factors
Deteriorating profitability
Reported earnings have deteriorated materially, with 2025 losses reducing retained earnings and eroding the earnings cushion. Persistent below-the-line markdowns and non-cash adjustments can suppress reported profitability, constraining internal capital buildup and raising execution risk for reinvestment and distributions.
Weakened equity / capital cushion
A reduced equity base increases sensitivity to valuation shocks and downside scenarios, limiting borrowing capacity and making covenant risk and refinancing more acute. With a thinner capital cushion, adverse market moves or further markdowns could more readily pressure liquidity and strategic optionality.
Industrial segment weakness
Sharp industrial NOI and occupancy declines reduce diversification benefits and near-term cash flow stability. If re-leasing occurs at lower rents or takes longer, segment cash returns and valuation could lag, pressuring consolidated FFO and complicating efforts to rebalance the portfolio without costly concessions.

H&R Real Estate ate Staple (HR.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

H&R Real Estate ate Staple Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionH&R REIT is one of Canada's largest real estate investment trusts with total assets of approximately $13.3 billion at September 30, 2020. H&R REIT has ownership interests in a North American portfolio of high quality office, retail, industrial and residential properties comprising over 40 million square feet.
How the Company Makes MoneyH&R Real Estate generates revenue primarily through rental income from its diverse portfolio of properties, including retail, office, industrial, and residential assets. The company leases space to various tenants, receiving consistent rental payments that contribute to its cash flow. Additionally, H&R may engage in property development, which can create further income through leasing newly developed spaces or selling properties at a profit. The trust also benefits from long-term leases with tenants, providing stability in its revenue streams. Partnerships with property management firms and real estate brokers enhance its market reach and operational efficiency, contributing to its overall earnings.

H&R Real Estate ate Staple Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 12, 2026
(Q4-2025)
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% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 20, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mixed but broadly balanced picture: modest positive operational and financial results (1.6% same-property NOI growth, FFO +1.4%, strong retail performance, Lantower stabilization and development momentum, and disciplined payout ratios) were offset by material challenges in industrial (sharp NOI and occupancy declines), near-term multifamily leasing/occupancy pressure in some Sunbelt markets, fair value markdowns in Long Island City, and leverage/execution risks tied to continued dispositions and a relatively high pro forma debt-to-EBITDA figure. Management conveyed cautious optimism and active balance-sheet management while acknowledging market headwinds.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Same-Property NOI and FFO Growth
Same-property net operating income (cash basis) grew 1.6% for the year ended Dec 31, 2025 vs. 2024. Funds from operations (FFO) were $1.21 per unit, a 1.4% increase from $1.20 in 2024.
Residential (Lantower) Operational Strength and Development Progress
Residential same-property NOI (cash basis) rose 1.1% in Q4 2025 and 1.2% for the year. Collections remained strong, resident retention high, wage growth >3%, and average rent-to-income ratios ~20%. Fewer than 10% of move-outs were tied to home purchases. Development updates: Lantower West Love 90% occupied, Lantower Midtown 84% occupied, REDT projects on budget, first move-ins at Bayside (Tampa) expected March 2026 and Sunrise (Orlando) expected April 2026. Pipeline of 9 Sunbelt developments ~2,900 suites at H&R ownership share. Market supply forecasted to decline 36% in 2026 vs. 2025, supporting future stabilization.
Retail Segment Outperformance and Asset Monetization
Retail same-property NOI (cash basis) increased 4.4% in Q4 2025 and 7% for the year, driven by occupancy gains at River Landing and ForEx. Significant monetizations: net investment in ECHO and 23 Canadian retail properties sold in January 2026; remaining retail limited to River Landing commercial (~4% of total real estate assets).
Office Same-Property NOI and Strong Occupancy
Office same-property NOI (cash basis) increased 1.5% for Q4 2025 and for the year. Office occupancy was 96% at Dec 31, 2025 with an average remaining lease term of 5.2 years. After planned sales, the pro forma office segment is expected to comprise ~12% of total real estate assets.
Industrial Development Leasing Success
All three industrial developments (totaling ~360,000 sq ft at H&R ownership share) have been fully leased; two leases (~204,000 sq ft) commence in Q1 2026 and the third in Q4 2026, supporting forward cash flow from new developments.
Healthy Payout Ratios and Use of Sale Proceeds
FFO and AFFO payout ratios were 50% and 60%, respectively, for the year ended Dec 31, 2025. Proceeds from announced sales have been used to repay debt, signaling active balance sheet management.
Operational Scalability Move: Outsourcing to Greystar
Beginning Apr 1, 2026, property management for the residential platform will transition to Greystar to improve operating leverage, reduce fixed overhead and capture procurement efficiencies (example cited: paint discount improvement). Management expects this to enable more efficient scaling and cost savings across line items.
Quarterly NOI Pickup and Leasing Momentum
Same-store assets increased NOI by approximately $3.2 million in USD in Q4 vs Q3 2025 due to Sunbelt improvements, Jackson Park contributions, realty tax true-ups, and ramping occupancy at Midtown and West Love.
Negative Updates
Industrial NOI Decline and Occupancy Fall
Industrial same-property NOI decreased 9% in Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024 and decreased 3.7% for the year. Industrial occupancy declined materially from 98.9% at Dec 31, 2024 to 90.7% at Dec 31, 2025.
Residential Occupancy Pressure and Weak New Lease Pricing
Same-asset residential occupancy ended Q4 at 92.8%, down 2.2% year-over-year and down 1.8% from Q3. Sunbelt blended lease trade-outs were negative 3.2% in Q4 (improved vs prior), new-lease trade-outs were negative 12.4% while renewal rates increased 4%, indicating pressure on new leasing pricing.
Fair Value Reductions in Long Island City (Jackson Park)
Management recorded significant fair value reductions in Q4 related to Long Island City / Jackson Park. The adjustments followed third-party appraisals and internal valuation reconsiderations and were discussed as accounting/appraisal-driven markdowns.
Market Headwinds and Near-Term Office Vacancy Risk
Company cited headwinds including elevated multifamily supply (earlier years), a weak office market, a tariff war creating market uncertainty, and a weaker Canadian economy. Office vacancy is expected to increase in 2026 given RBC lease maturity (~189,000 sq ft) and tenant turnover risks.
High Leverage Metric (Potential Concern)
Pro forma debt-to-EBITDA is expected to be ~8.7x (REIT proportionate share), and pro forma debt-to-total-assets ~41.8%. While proceeds are being used to repay debt, the reported leverage multiple may be viewed as a risk factor.
Ongoing Dispositions and Portfolio Reduction
Property sales of approximately $527 million were completed over the two-year period Jan 1, 2024 to Dec 31, 2025, with multiple additional assets held for sale or expected to be sold in 2026. While proceeds are reducing debt, continued dispositions reduce the size/scale of the income-producing portfolio and create execution/timing risk on achieving expected sale proceeds.
Company Guidance
Management guided that H&R delivered FFO of $1.21 per unit for 2025 (up 1.4% YoY) and same‑property NOI growth of 1.6% on a cash basis for the year, with FFO and AFFO payout ratios of 50% and 60% and about $527M of property sales completed in 2024–25 (proceeds used to repay debt). By segment, residential same‑property NOI rose 1.1% in Q4 and 1.2% for 2025 with same‑asset occupancy at 92.8% (‑2.2% YoY), Sunbelt blended trade‑outs −3.2% in Q4 (new leases −12.4%, renewals +4%, January blended −3.6%), a Sunbelt weighted cap rate of 4.9%, and 9 Sunbelt developments totaling ~2,900 suites at H&R’s share (West Love 90% occupied, Midtown 84%); office same‑property NOI +1.5% with 96% occupancy and a 5.2‑year average lease term but an expected 2026 vacancy increase tied to an ~189,000 sq ft RBC lease maturing (pro forma office will be ~12% of assets after four planned sales); retail NOI +4.4% Q4/+7% FY with remaining River Landing commercial expected to be ~4% of assets; industrial NOI fell 9% in Q4 and 3.7% for the year with occupancy down to 90.7% (from 98.9%), although three industrial developments (~360,000 sq ft at H&R’s share) are fully leased (two leases ~204,000 sq ft commencing Q1 2026, the third in Q4 2026). Pro forma leverage targets are ~41.8% debt to total assets and ~8.7x debt-to-EBITDA, management is not targeting material new acquisitions given cost of capital (only potential 1031 exchanges), and Lantower will transition to third‑party property management (Greystar) on April 1, 2026.

H&R Real Estate ate Staple Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Overall financials are mixed: cash generation is still positive (cash flow score 63), and leverage has been moderate historically (balance sheet score 56), but reported profitability has deteriorated sharply with larger losses in 2025 (income statement score 38) and equity fell materially, weakening the capital cushion.
Income Statement
38
Negative
Revenue has been volatile (down in 2022 and 2024, then rebounding in 2025), but profitability has deteriorated meaningfully. The company moved from modest profitability in 2023 to losses in 2024 and a much larger loss in 2025, with the net margin dropping sharply into negative territory. Gross margin has stayed relatively solid (~60%+), suggesting property-level economics are holding up, but below-the-line items and/or non-cash revaluations are heavily pressuring reported earnings.
Balance Sheet
56
Neutral
Leverage appears moderate for a diversified REIT, with debt-to-equity generally in the ~0.67–0.85 range in recent years (improving from above 1.0 in 2020). However, equity fell materially in 2025 versus 2024, which weakens the capital cushion and increases sensitivity to asset value changes. Overall, the balance sheet looks workable, but the shrinking equity base is a key risk if operating conditions or property valuations remain pressured.
Cash Flow
63
Positive
Cash generation remains a relative strength: operating cash flow and free cash flow are positive across all periods provided, even in loss years. That said, free cash flow declined in 2024 and fell sharply again in 2025, signaling weaker underlying cash momentum. The business is still producing cash despite accounting losses, but the downtrend in free cash flow reduces flexibility for distributions, debt paydown, and reinvestment.
BreakdownDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue815.13M816.99M903.63M834.64M1.07B
Gross Profit489.70M499.34M603.09M534.95M661.58M
EBITDA-826.55M-35.07M627.04M506.68M820.29M
Net Income-791.56M-119.71M61.69M844.82M597.91M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets9.11B10.62B10.78B11.41B10.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments52.14M100.35M64.11M76.89M124.14M
Total Debt3.50B3.54B3.72B3.95B3.92B
Total Liabilities4.97B5.34B5.59B5.93B5.73B
Stockholders Equity4.14B5.28B5.19B5.49B4.77B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow146.44M234.48M253.46M219.47M405.02M
Operating Cash Flow188.43M274.07M294.63M255.05M452.11M
Investing Cash Flow-59.19M173.15M112.86M225.95M1.50B
Financing Cash Flow-177.46M-410.98M-420.26M-528.26M-1.89B

H&R Real Estate ate Staple Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price9.86
Price Trends
50DMA
10.52
Negative
100DMA
10.42
Negative
200DMA
10.83
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.12
Positive
RSI
31.84
Neutral
STOCH
30.29
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:HR.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 9.86 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.32, below the 50-day MA of 10.52, and below the 200-day MA of 10.83, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.12 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 31.84 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.29 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:HR.UN.

H&R Real Estate ate Staple Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
C$331.01M16.244.52%7.37%0.92%92.93%
74
Outperform
C$2.92B24.316.29%5.82%6.32%
71
Outperform
C$901.35M15.176.49%7.95%1.80%46.83%
69
Neutral
C$3.47B21.645.27%5.56%7.31%74.70%
65
Neutral
$2.17B12.193.79%4.94%3.15%1.96%
61
Neutral
C$1.92B69.280.93%4.42%6.19%79.98%
53
Neutral
C$2.61B-3.39-17.10%7.05%-0.83%-56.21%
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:HR.UN
H&R Real Estate ate Staple
9.86
0.37
3.84%
TSE:BTB.UN
BTB REIT
3.75
0.60
19.09%
TSE:CRR.UN
Crombie Real Estate ate
15.59
2.27
17.06%
TSE:DIR.UN
Dream Industrl REIT
12.22
1.30
11.87%
TSE:KMP.UN
Killam Apartment REIT Un
15.72
-1.09
-6.47%
TSE:SGR.UN
Slate Grocery REIT
14.98
2.00
15.37%

H&R Real Estate ate Staple Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
H&R REIT Reshapes Portfolio With $5.4 Billion in Asset Sales and Spin-Off
Positive
Feb 12, 2026

H&R REIT reported its fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results alongside a major update on its multi-year strategic repositioning. Since mid-2021, the trust has spun off 27 enclosed shopping centres into Primaris REIT, sold ownership interests in 69 properties worth about $3.0 billion, and executed additional sales and contracts that bring total completed and pending 2026 dispositions to roughly $5.4 billion.

These transactions have transformed H&R’s portfolio mix, lifting residential and industrial assets from 34% to 84% of total real estate holdings and boosting U.S. exposure from 45% to 68%, while sharply reducing office and retail exposure. The shift is intended to reposition H&R as a more growth- and income-focused REIT, with implications for investors who gain a cleaner, sector-focused portfolio and reduced concentration in legacy office and retail properties.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:HR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on H&R Real Estate ate Staple stock, see the TSE:HR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresM&A Transactions
H&R REIT Sells $1.1 Billion in Assets, Reshapes Lantower Residential Operations
Positive
Jan 29, 2026

H&R REIT has completed a series of sizable retail and office asset sales, generating approximately $1.1 billion in gross proceeds and using roughly $727 million of net January proceeds to pay down corporate debt, while retaining management of the sold Canadian retail and Greater Toronto Area office properties under a new contract and advancing further planned dispositions, including a Houston office tower and additional Canadian retail assets. In parallel, its Lantower Residential platform will externalize property management to Greystar from April 1, 2026 in a move expected to deliver about US$5 million in annual cost savings, expand flexibility to pursue multifamily opportunities in high‑growth Sunbelt markets, and preserve leadership continuity, as the REIT also reports the departure of its EVP of Development & Construction and schedules the release of its 2025 year‑end results.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:HR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$11.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on H&R Real Estate ate Staple stock, see the TSE:HR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Dividends
H&R REIT Announces January 2026 Monthly Distribution
Positive
Jan 9, 2026

H&R Real Estate Investment Trust has declared a monthly cash distribution of $0.05 per unit for January 2026, equivalent to an annualized rate of $0.60 per unit, with a record date of January 30, 2026 and a distribution date of February 17, 2026. The announcement underscores the REIT’s continued commitment to regular unitholder payouts, signaling income stability for investors supported by its large, diversified portfolio of income-producing properties across Canada and the United States.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:HR.UN) stock is a Hold with a C$10.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on H&R Real Estate ate Staple stock, see the TSE:HR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
H&R REIT Sells $1.5 Billion in Retail and Office Properties to Focus on Residential and Industrial Assets
Positive
Nov 25, 2025

H&R REIT announced the sale of $1.5 billion worth of retail and office properties in Canada and the U.S., aligning with its strategy to simplify its portfolio and focus on residential and industrial assets. The proceeds will be used to strengthen the balance sheet and reduce leverage, with net proceeds of approximately $1.1 billion earmarked for debt repayment. This move will increase the proportion of residential and industrial assets in H&R’s portfolio from 69% to 83%, enhancing long-term value for unitholders. The sales are expected to close by early 2026, subject to customary conditions, and will result in a more streamlined and focused asset base for the company.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:HR.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$11.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on H&R Real Estate ate Staple stock, see the TSE:HR.UN Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Feb 18, 2026