Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ.UN) AI Stock Analysis

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Plaza Retail REIT

(TSX:PLZ.UN)

Select Model

Outperform 74 (OpenAI - 5.2)

Rating:74Outperform

Price Target:

C$5.00

▲(17.10% Upside)

Action:UpgradedDate:03/05/26

The score is driven primarily by stable but moderately leveraged financials, supported by clear technical strength (price above key moving averages) and attractive valuation (low P/E and high yield). Earnings call commentary was constructive with occupancy/leasing and NOI/FFO growth, partially tempered by Toys R Us-related vacancy and elevated leverage.

Positive Factors

Occupancy & Leasing Spreads

Very high committed occupancy and large renewal/new-lease spreads indicate durable rent‑setting power and recurring cash flow strength. Over 2–6 months this supports steady NOI and FFO, reduces downside from normal retail turnover, and improves ability to fund redevelopment and distributions.

Development & NOI Lift

Active intensification and development meaningfully raised stabilized NOI and creates multi-year organic growth potential. These project-driven NOI gains are durable drivers of cash flow that expand asset value, support FFO growth, and partially mitigate reliance on external acquisitions.

Portfolio Focus & Recycling

Concentrating the portfolio on grocery‑anchored, suburban, value-oriented retail while recycling noncore assets strengthens tenant resilience and long‑term rent stability. Proactive portfolio optimization improves income predictability and supports capital redeployment into higher-return intensifications.

Negative Factors

Elevated Leverage

A relatively debt-heavy capital structure limits financial flexibility and increases sensitivity to rising rates or capital market stress. Even with modest improvements, elevated leverage constrains ability to pursue opportunistic acquisitions, fund large development swings, or absorb sustained NOI declines.

Modest Cashflow vs Debt

Steady but modest operating cash flow relative to debt means limited internal deleveraging capacity and smaller buffer for distribution, capex, or tenant stress. Negative free cash flow growth recent years reduces resilience and heightens reliance on external financing for growth or debt repayment.

Tenant & Vacancy Risk

Tenant-specific insolvencies and typical rolling vacancy in open‑air strips create recurring leasing risk and near‑term revenue drag. Replacing large anchor vacancies can take multiple quarters, pressuring NOI and cash flow until new leases stabilize, especially given the portfolio's suburban retail exposure.

Plaza Retail REIT (PLZ.UN) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Market Cap

C$472.66M

Dividend Yield6.56%

Average Volume (3M)32.72K

Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7

Beta (1Y)0.46

Revenue Growth4.53%

EPS Growth197.86%

CountryCA

Employees98

SectorReal Estate

Sector Strength53

IndustryREIT - Retail

Share Statistics

EPS (TTM)0.22

Shares Outstanding110,435,000

10 Day Avg. Volume30,420

30 Day Avg. Volume32,715

Financial Highlights & Ratios

PEG Ratio0.07

Price to Book (P/B)0.85

Price to Sales (P/S)3.66

P/FCF Ratio11.94

Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A

Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A

Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A

Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A

Forecast

1Y Price Target

C$4.75

Price Target Upside11.24% Upside

Rating ConsensusModerate Buy

Number of Analyst Covering3

EPS Forecast (FY)0.39

Revenue Forecast (FY)C$131.00M

Plaza Retail REIT Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionPlaza is an open-ended real estate investment trust and is a leading retail property owner and developer, focused on Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada. Plaza's portfolio at September 30, 2020 includes interests in 272 properties totaling approximately 8.6 million square feet across Canada and additional lands held for development. Plaza's portfolio largely consists of open-air centres and stand-alone small box retail outlets and is predominantly occupied by national tenants.

How the Company Makes MoneyPlaza Retail REIT generates revenue primarily through leasing retail spaces to a diverse range of tenants, including national and regional brands. The company earns rental income from long-term leases, which typically provide stable cash flows. Additionally, Plaza Retail REIT may benefit from percentage rent agreements where tenants pay a portion of their sales as rent, particularly in high-performing locations. The REIT also engages in property management services, which can contribute to its earnings. Significant partnerships with retail brands and a strategic focus on desirable locations enhance tenant occupancy rates, further solidifying its revenue base. The consistent demand for retail space in well-located centers supports the company's financial performance.

Plaza Retail REIT Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 02, 2026

(Q4-2025)

% Change Since: |

Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026

Earnings Call Sentiment Positive

The call emphasized solid operating and financial progress: FFO and AFFO growth, record occupancy, strong leasing spreads (including an 82% new lease spread), incremental NOI from intensifications (~$5.5M in 2025) and a $14M fair‑value uplift. Near‑term headwinds are limited and largely one‑time or timing‑related — notably the Toys R Us insolvency (~$544K bad debt and ~$1M annual NOI vacancy), temporary AFFO pressure from optimization costs (~$2.1M of leasing costs and other reorganization/timing items), and typical rolling vacancy in open‑air strips. Balance sheet metrics improved modestly, though net debt/EBITDA remains relatively high at 8.9x. Overall, positives (sustained occupancy, meaningful leasing spreads, NOI and FFO gains, and value creation) materially outweigh the discrete and manageable negatives.

Q4-2025 Updates

Positive Updates

Development Pipeline and Stabilized NOI

Stabilized NOI from intensifications and acquisitions is approximately $6.1M, plus about $0.6M from properties currently under development, with several tenant fit‑outs/handovers completed in 2025 that should contribute more visibly in 2026 and beyond.

Balance Sheet and Liquidity Trends

Debt‑to‑assets ratio down 60 bps year‑over‑year to 50% (excluding land leases). Net debt to adjusted EBITDA improved to 8.9x (20 bps lower). Loan‑to‑value at 42% and $63M of fixed‑rate mortgages maturing next year at a weighted average rate of 3.4%. Market interest for new mortgages quoted in the low‑4% to low‑5% range; 5‑year secured financing in the low‑4s to mid‑4s.

Portfolio Optimization and Strategic Consolidation

Sold 21 noncore properties (mainly QSRs and small single‑tenant assets) and consolidated holdings (e.g., acquired additional interests to reach 100% ownership in certain grocery‑anchored and Shoppers Drug Mart assets), demonstrating active portfolio recycling and capital redeployment.

Appreciation in Investment Property Values

Recorded a $14M write‑up during the quarter driven by increased stabilized NOIs, new appraisals and cap‑rate compression; weighted average cap rate now 6.8%.

FFO and AFFO Growth

Total FFO increased to $44.0M or $0.395 per unit in 2025 from $40.5M or $0.363 per unit in 2024, an 8.8% improvement; normalized FFO per unit (excluding one-time items) increased ~4.5% year‑over‑year. AFFO per unit rose 4.9%.

Strong Occupancy and Leasing Performance

Committed occupancy at an all‑time high of 97.6%, with a pending lease expected to raise it to ~98%; excluding enclosed malls occupancy is ~99%. Blended leasing spreads were 13.4% over the renewal term, with negotiated renewal spreads just over 18%, and a new‑lease (year‑1 vs expiring within 12 months) leasing spread of 82%.

NOI Growth and Value Creation

Total NOI for 2025 was $77M, up 2.7% year‑over‑year. Same‑asset NOI increased 1.1% for the quarter and 1.7% for the year (or 2.2% quarter / 2.5% year excluding Toys R Us bad debt). Intensification, development and consolidation initiatives added ~$5.5M of NOI in 2025.

Negative Updates

Toys R Us Insolvency Impact

Toys R Us related bad debt of $544K recorded in 2025 and an associated vacancy that reduces NOI by approximately $1.0M per year (~35,000 sq ft). Management expects to backfill and achieve straight‑line rents by the end of 2026 but vacancy drag will impact near‑term results.

Temporary AFFO Pressure from Optimization

Optimization program generated one‑time costs (including $2.1M of leasing costs) and other timing items (reorganization costs of $123K in 2025; $2.7M in 2024; $425K change in bonus accrual timing) that create temporary volatility in AFFO despite supporting long‑term FFO/NOI growth.

Quarterly Net Rental Income Decline and Bad Debt

Net rental income declined by approximately $1.5M from Q3 to Q4; about $0.5M of that related to the Toys R Us write‑off, ~$200K from routine bad debt, with the remainder attributable to seasonality and timing effects.

Ongoing Vacancy and Leasing Turnover in Open‑Air Strips

Open‑air strip portfolio typically experiences 70,000–125,000 sq ft of rolling vacancy (management cited ~70,000–100,000 sq ft currently). While this is a known operating dynamic, it requires ongoing leasing activity and creates short‑term turnover risk.

Leverage Level (Relative Consideration)

Net debt to adjusted EBITDA at 8.9x remains elevated by some market standards despite a modest improvement (down 20 bps year‑over‑year). Higher leverage could constrain flexibility if macro conditions deteriorate.

Company Guidance

The guidance for 2026 is centered on continued optimization and intensification with an expected same‑asset NOI run‑rate of roughly 2.0–2.5% (management said that is achievable), continued positive NOI contribution from renewals and projects that added about $5.5M of NOI in 2025, and stabilized incremental NOI of roughly $6.1M from intensifications/acquisitions plus ~$0.6M from properties under development; management expects many projects to contribute more visibly through 2026, committed occupancy to move from 97.6% to ~98% (and ~99% excluding enclosed malls), Toys R Us vacancy (~35,000 sq ft, ~$1M p.a. NOI) to be backfilled with straight‑line rents by end‑2026, leasing momentum with blended renewal spreads of 13.4%, negotiated renewal spreads just over 18% and a new‑lease year‑1 vs prior‑tenant spread of 82%, and continued balance‑sheet strength (debt‑to‑assets ~50%, net debt/adjusted EBITDA 8.9x, LTV 42%, $63M of fixed mortgages maturing next year at a 3.4% weighted rate, weighted average cap rate ~6.8%, and five‑year secured financing in the low‑ to mid‑4% range).

Plaza Retail REIT Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Stable revenue growth and generally positive profitability with steady operating/free cash flow, but a leverage-heavy balance sheet (debt-to-equity ~1.2x; cash flow modest versus debt) and uneven earnings history reduce financial flexibility.

Income Statement

Positive

Revenue shows steady expansion from 2023–2025 (2025 revenue up ~3.4% YoY after ~6.3% in 2024), and profitability has stabilized with positive net income in each of the last three annual periods (2023–2025). Gross profit remains solid (e.g., 2024 gross margin ~61%), supporting consistent operating earnings. Offsetting this, net income has been volatile across the cycle (notably a loss in 2020 and unusually high profits in 2021–2022), which reduces confidence in the consistency of earnings quality.

Balance Sheet

Neutral

Leverage is meaningful for the business: debt-to-equity sits around ~1.2x in 2023–2024 (and was higher earlier), indicating a relatively debt-heavy capital structure. That said, equity has grown over time (from ~$422M in 2020 to ~$565M in 2025) and total assets have remained broadly stable (~$1.2–$1.3B), suggesting balance sheet size and capitalization are not deteriorating. The key weakness is that returns on equity are modest in recent years (mid-single digits in 2023–2024), which can limit balance-sheet flexibility if conditions tighten.

Cash Flow

Positive

Cash generation is steady but not accelerating: operating cash flow has been relatively consistent (~$40–48M range from 2021–2025) and free cash flow is positive each year, including 2024 where free cash flow matched net income. However, free cash flow growth has been negative in 2023–2025, and operating cash flow is a modest share of debt (coverage ~0.21–0.33 in 2020–2024), which matters for a leveraged REIT structure.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	130.62M	121.28M	114.06M	111.25M	110.63M
Gross Profit	86.34M	74.36M	70.35M	70.58M	71.78M
EBITDA	88.07M	57.32M	64.63M	81.34M	70.51M
Net Income	55.28M	25.05M	20.19M	53.89M	99.61M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.28B	1.24B	1.26B	1.27B	1.21B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	8.09M	8.87M	10.87M	7.26M	8.06M
Total Debt	651.14M	657.22M	672.47M	708.14M	679.24M
Total Liabilities	712.84M	696.37M	714.49M	747.71M	716.94M
Stockholders Equity	565.25M	540.82M	546.49M	518.90M	493.52M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	40.08M	39.86M	42.29M	80.69M	69.39M
Operating Cash Flow	40.08M	39.86M	42.29M	38.47M	48.21M
Investing Cash Flow	-9.39M	5.34M	-10.00M	-44.90M	-21.95M
Financing Cash Flow	-39.53M	-23.29M	-40.23M	1.15M	-26.33M

Plaza Retail REIT Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment

Negative

Last Price4.27

Price Trends

50DMA

4.29

Negative

100DMA

4.18

Positive

200DMA

4.05

Positive

Market Momentum

MACD

>-0.01

Positive

RSI

46.50

Neutral

STOCH

45.23

Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PLZ.UN, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.27 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.36, below the 50-day MA of 4.29, and above the 200-day MA of 4.05, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of >-0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 46.50 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.23 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PLZ.UN.

Plaza Retail REIT Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (65)

Financial Indicators

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PMZ.UN	75 Outperform	C$2.01B	10.72	6.52%	5.52%	26.88%	77.26%
PLZ.UN	74 Outperform	C$472.66M	8.66	10.04%	6.56%	4.53%	197.86%
CRT.UN	73 Outperform	C$3.92B	7.47	18.40%	5.74%	4.11%	35.99%
FCR.UN	73 Outperform	C$4.37B	3.77	25.30%	4.71%	-0.83%	-28.93%
SGR.UN	71 Outperform	C$905.56M	15.17	6.49%	7.95%	1.80%	46.83%
SRU.UN	71 Outperform	C$4.55B	18.23	4.85%	7.22%	0.48%	96.32%
Sector *	65 Neutral	$2.17B	12.19	3.79%	4.94%	3.15%	1.96%

* Real Estate Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TSE:PLZ.UN

Plaza Retail REIT

4.28

0.73

20.67%

TSE:CRT.UN

CT Real Estate Investment

16.36

2.61

19.00%

TSE:FCR.UN

First Capital Realty

20.55

4.80

30.43%

TSE:SGR.UN

Slate Grocery REIT

15.05

2.07

15.91%

TSE:SRU.UN

SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trust

26.70

3.04

12.83%

TSE:PMZ.UN

Primaris Real Estate Investment Trust

17.02

2.57

17.79%

Plaza Retail REIT Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Plaza Retail REIT lifts FFO and NOI in 2025 as optimization strategy gains traction

Positive

Mar 3, 2026

Plaza Retail REIT reported that 2025 was a transition year marked by optimization and intensification strategies, with funds from operations rising 8.8% to $44.0 million and total NOI up 2.7% to $77.0 million. The portfolio remained resilient, with committed occupancy at 97.6%, healthy leasing spreads, and limited exposure to the Toys R Us insolvency, while intensification, development, and consolidation initiatives added about $3.0 million of incremental NOI.

Management highlighted that same-asset NOI grew 1.7% despite tenant disruptions, and would have increased 2.5% excluding bad debt tied to Toys R Us. Fair value gains on investment properties, supported by lower capitalization rates, higher stabilized NOI, and new appraisals, significantly boosted profit and comprehensive income, positioning the REIT for further earnings benefits as 2026 projects with tenants like Loblaws stabilize.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:PLZ.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$5.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plaza Retail REIT stock, see the TSE:PLZ.UN Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures

Plaza Retail REIT Sets New Date for Year-End 2025 Results Call

Neutral

Feb 24, 2026

Plaza Retail REIT, a major Canadian retail property owner and developer focused on open-air centres and small-box outlets in Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada, manages a portfolio of 197 properties totaling roughly 8.8 million square feet as of late 2025. The REIT’s assets are predominantly leased to national retailers that cater to essential needs and value-conscious consumers, reinforcing Plaza’s positioning in defensive, convenience-driven retail real estate.

The trust has rescheduled its year-end 2025 financial results conference call, now set for March 3, 2026, when senior management will review fourth-quarter and full-year performance. Financial statements and accompanying analysis will be released ahead of the call and made available online, while both live access and replay options are being offered, underscoring Plaza’s emphasis on investor communication and transparency around its operating results.

Dividends

Plaza Retail REIT Declares February 2026 Monthly Distribution

Positive

Feb 17, 2026

Plaza Retail REIT has declared a monthly cash distribution of $0.02333 per unit for February 2026, equivalent to $0.28 on an annualized basis. The payout, scheduled for mid-March to investors of record at the end of February, underscores the trust’s continuing income focus for unitholders and reflects ongoing cash generation from its diversified retail property portfolio across key Eastern Canadian markets.

Financial Disclosures

Plaza Retail REIT Sets February 26 Call to Review 2025 Year-End Results

Neutral

Jan 30, 2026

Plaza Retail REIT has scheduled a conference call for February 26, 2026, for senior management to discuss the trust’s year-end 2025 financial results, with the fourth-quarter and full-year financial statements and management’s discussion and analysis to be released beforehand on its website and on SEDAR+. The call will be accessible via direct dial or automated callback, with a replay available by phone until March 5, 2026 and as an audio download on Plaza’s website for 90 days, providing investors and other stakeholders with multiple options to review the REIT’s financial performance and outlook.

Business Operations and StrategyDividends

Plaza Retail REIT Declares January 2026 Monthly Distribution

Positive

Jan 15, 2026

Plaza Retail REIT has declared a monthly cash distribution for January 2026 of $0.02333 per unit, equivalent to $0.28 on an annualized basis, to be paid in mid-February to unitholders of record at the end of January. The announcement underscores Plaza’s continued income distribution to investors, reflecting its ongoing strategy of generating stable cash flow from a diversified portfolio of necessity-based and value-oriented retail properties across key Canadian markets.

The most recent analyst rating on ($TSE:PLZ.UN) stock is a Buy with a C$4.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Plaza Retail REIT stock, see the TSE:PLZ.UN Stock Forecast page.

Dividends

Plaza Retail REIT Declares December 2025 Distribution

Positive

Dec 15, 2025

Plaza Retail REIT announced its December 2025 monthly distribution of $0.02333 per unit, payable on January 15, 2026, to unitholders of record as of December 31, 2025. This announcement reflects Plaza’s ongoing commitment to providing returns to its investors and highlights its stable financial operations within the retail real estate sector.

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Mar 05, 2026