Pan American Silver (PAAS) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$27.98B
• Dividend Yield: 0.88%
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 11.9
• Beta (1Y): 2.39
• Revenue Growth: 25.04%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 9,000
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Silver
• EPS (TTM): 1.52
• Shares Outstanding: 421,884,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,075,374
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,085,073
• PEG Ratio: 0.03
• Price to Book (P/B): 2.83
• Price to Sales (P/S): 5.37
• P/FCF Ratio: 18.28
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$100.05
• Price Target Upside: 50.86% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): 6.21
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$6.93B

• Rating: 76 Outperform
• Price Target: C$75.00 ▲(13.09% Upside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 02/20/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 02/20/26

The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong 2024–2025 profitability and cash generation supported by a solid balance sheet) and a favorable, upward technical trend. Offsetting factors are a less compelling valuation for a cyclical miner (P/E ~22, low yield) and earnings-call risks including higher 2026 cost guidance and ongoing Escobal uncertainty.

Positive Factors

Sustained cash generation

The material step-up to ~$1.2B FCF in 2025 represents a durable improvement in cash generation capacity versus prior years. Persistent higher FCF enables funding of project capital, exploration, dividends, and debt reduction, improving long-term financial flexibility through the commodity cycle.

Conservative balance sheet

A sizable equity base and relatively low net debt provide structural resilience to price volatility and operational setbacks. Low leverage supports the company's ability to fund capital programs, absorb cyclical downturns, and access liquidity for project execution without forcing asset sales or dilutive financing.

Production growth from low-cost assets

Rising production from a low-cost, high-margin source (Juanicipio) and higher grades at Cerro Moro structurally increase ounces sold and operating leverage. Higher, sustainable volumes from low-cost assets bolster margins and FCF per cycle, improving ability to self-fund projects and return capital over multiple years.

Negative Factors

Escobal suspension risk

Regulatory and social permitting uncertainty at Escobal locks material upside and long-term reserves offline. An indefinite suspension reduces optional production capacity and increases operational concentration elsewhere, limiting the company's ability to scale output and monetize invested capital until resolved.

Higher structural AISC

A sustained increase in AISC driven by royalties and social/profit sharing mechanisms structurally compresses margins per ounce. If these cost components persist, they reduce cash flow sensitivity to higher metal prices and raise the break-even profile, constraining long-term free cash flow at given commodity prices.

Asset-level declines & project uncertainty

Declining output at key mills and a downsized, phased La Colorada plan increase execution and scale risk. Reliance on partner arrangements and uncertain economics for La Colorada could delay or dilute expected production/cash contributions, raising project delivery and medium-term volume risks.

Pan American Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Pan American Silver Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, mine development, extraction, processing, refining, and reclamation of silver, gold, zinc, lead, and copper mines in Canada, Mexico, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia. It holds interests in the La Colorada, Dolores, Huaron, Morococha, Shahuindo, La Arena, Timmins West, Bell Creek, Manantial Espejo, San Vicente, Joaquin, Cap-Oeste Sur Este, and Navidad mines. The company was formerly known as Pan American Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Pan American Silver Corp. in April 1995. Pan American Silver Corp. was incorporated in 1979 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Pan American Silver makes money primarily by producing and selling precious metals—mainly silver and gold—from its owned and operated mining and processing assets. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed into marketable products (such as dore bars and/or metal concentrates) and then sold to customers at prevailing market prices that reference commodity benchmarks, with realized prices also affected by product type, quality, timing, and commercial terms. A meaningful portion of sales and margins can also come from by-product metals (e.g., base metals) recovered during processing, which are sold through similar commodity-linked arrangements and help offset operating costs per ounce of silver or gold produced. The company’s earnings are therefore heavily influenced by: (1) production volumes and grades (how much metal is produced), (2) operating costs and sustaining capital required to run and maintain mines, (3) realized commodity prices and foreign-exchange movements, and (4) operational performance factors such as recovery rates, mine plans, permitting, and geopolitical/regulatory conditions in the jurisdictions where it operates. If the company uses refining, smelting, trading counterparties, streaming/royalty arrangements, or hedging, those can affect the timing and amount of revenue and cash flow; however, specific counterparties/partnership terms are null.

Pan American Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong recovery and scale-up: revenue rose materially (2020–2025) with a sharp swing back to strong profitability in 2024–2025 and a major step-up in operating cash flow and free cash flow in 2025. Balance sheet is a key support with sizable equity versus moderate debt, though results have been notably cyclical (losses and weak/negative FCF in 2022–2023) and debt has trended higher versus 2020–2021.

Income Statement

Revenue has scaled materially over the past several years (from ~$1.34B in 2020 to ~$3.68B in 2025), with strong year-over-year gains in 2023–2025. Profitability has also rebounded sharply after losses in 2022–2023, with 2024 returning to positive earnings and 2025 showing very strong net income (~$1.0B). The main weakness is volatility: margins and earnings swung from solid profits (2020–2021) to meaningful losses (2022–2023) before the recent recovery, which is a key risk for consistency.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet looks conservatively positioned overall, supported by a large equity base (equity rising to ~$7.0B in 2025) against moderate debt (~$0.94B in 2025). Leverage has been manageable in the years where it is provided (debt-to-equity ~0.17 in 2023–2024), indicating financial flexibility. The key watch-out is that debt has increased versus 2020–2021 levels, so maintaining the improved profitability/cash generation is important to keep leverage from trending higher through the cycle.

Cash Flow

Cash generation improved significantly: operating cash flow rose from ~$0.45B (2023) to ~$0.72B (2024) and ~$1.40B (2025), while free cash flow expanded to ~$1.08B in 2025 with strong growth. Earlier years show cyclicality and execution risk—2022 had very weak operating cash flow and negative free cash flow, and 2023 free cash flow was modest—so the durability of the recent step-up is the primary uncertainty.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.68B	2.82B	2.32B	1.49B	1.63B
Gross Profit	1.39B	548.50M	214.60M	48.36M	367.94M
EBITDA	1.72B	1.05B	476.80M	22.07M	554.87M
Net Income	995.12M	111.50M	-103.70M	-340.06M	97.43M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	9.72B	7.20B	7.21B	3.25B	3.52B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	1.32B	887.30M	440.90M	142.34M	335.27M
Total Debt	935.29M	803.30M	801.60M	226.84M	45.86M
Total Liabilities	2.74B	2.49B	2.44B	1.05B	882.58M
Stockholders Equity	6.98B	4.70B	4.76B	2.20B	2.63B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	1.08B	400.80M	71.20M	-242.78M	148.63M
Operating Cash Flow	1.40B	724.10M	450.20M	31.91M	392.11M
Investing Cash Flow	-763.13M	-32.60M	397.90M	-255.40M	-186.66M
Financing Cash Flow	-282.87M	-225.20M	-551.80M	52.97M	-85.91M

Pan American Silver Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 66.32
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Positive
• STOCH: Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:PAAS, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 66.32 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 83.06, below the 50-day MA of 80.79, and above the 200-day MA of 57.60, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -2.37 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 29.73 is Positive, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 12.58 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:PAAS.

Pan American Silver Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
PAAS	76 Outperform	C$27.98B	11.93	16.85%	0.88%	25.04%	―
FVI	73 Outperform	C$3.77B	9.95	18.47%	―	7.61%	915.74%
SVM	71 Outperform	C$2.87B	-29.08	-2.37%	0.29%	37.50%	-60.92%
AG	67 Neutral	$12.83B	47.66	6.49%	0.12%	88.70%	―
DSV	66 Neutral	$6.18B	52.99	27.12%	―	―	―
AYA	62 Neutral	C$2.57B	32.28	0.71%	―	241.04%	-80.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

Pan American Silver Corporate Events

Pan American Silver Posts Record 2025 Results and Hikes Dividend

Pan American Silver reported record fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, driven by higher silver and gold prices, strong operating margins, and production that met or beat guidance. The miner posted record revenue, earnings, and operating cash flow, with Q4 operating cash flow alone reaching $554 million, and lifted its quarterly dividend by 29% as part of $221 million returned to shareholders in 2025.

The company generated record free cash flow and kept silver and gold all-in sustaining costs within or below guidance, supported by strong attributable production of both metals. With $1.3 billion in cash and short-term investments and additional cash at its Juanicipio joint venture, Pan American says it is well positioned to fund key growth projects and continue enhancing shareholder returns into 2026 as it forecasts a 14% rise in silver output.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PAAS) stock is a Buy with a C$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pan American Silver stock, see the TSE:PAAS Stock Forecast page.

Pan American Silver Beats 2025 Output Targets and Lifts 2026 Guidance on Stronger Margins

Pan American Silver reported preliminary 2025 production results showing attributable silver output of 22.8 million ounces, above its updated guidance range, and attributable gold production of 742,200 ounces, within guidance, supported by record fourth-quarter silver volumes. The recently acquired Juanicipio mine outperformed expectations by contributing 2.5 million ounces of silver and a $44 million dividend in 2025, while the company’s estimated year-end cash and short-term investments rose to $1.319 billion, excluding additional cash at Juanicipio, leaving total available liquidity at about $2.069 billion and underscoring a robust balance sheet. For 2026, Pan American guides to higher attributable silver production of 25.0–27.0 million ounces and gold output of 700,000–750,000 ounces, with silver segment all-in sustaining costs projected at $15.75–$18.25 per ounce and gold segment AISC at $1,700–$1,850 per ounce. Planned 2026 capital expenditures of $515 million–$550 million will be split between sustaining and project capital as the company advances internal growth initiatives, including a phased development plan for the La Colorada Skarn and vein mine and optimization work at Jacobina, positioning the miner for expanded operating margins and continued capital returns to shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:PAAS) stock is a Buy with a C$88.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Pan American Silver stock, see the TSE:PAAS Stock Forecast page.