Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA
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Aya Gold & Silver
(TSX:AYA)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$25.00
▲(0.73% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/17/26
The score is driven primarily by improved financial performance (strong TTM growth and profitability, with a solid balance sheet) tempered by volatile free cash flow. Technicals support the trend with price above major moving averages. Valuation is a key constraint due to a higher P/E and no dividend yield provided, while the earnings call adds support through positive operational momentum and constructive guidance despite near-term cost and payability risks.
Positive Factors
Revenue & Profitability Recovery
A large, durable step-up in scale and profitability demonstrates the business can operate profitably at meaningful scale. Persistent higher revenue and positive net margins provide cash generation potential, improve reinvestment capacity, and reduce execution risk versus prior loss-making periods.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Although operating cash flow has recently improved, historical negative and volatile free cash flow reflects heavy reinvestment, working-capital swings and prior large outflows. Persistent FCF volatility raises execution and funding risk for multi-year projects if metal prices or operating metrics deteriorate.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & Profitability Recovery
A large, durable step-up in scale and profitability demonstrates the business can operate profitably at meaningful scale. Persistent higher revenue and positive net margins provide cash generation potential, improve reinvestment capacity, and reduce execution risk versus prior loss-making periods.
Read all positive factors
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.34B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)11.5
Beta (1Y)3.76
Revenue Growth313.42%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees405
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySilver
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding142,986,540
10 Day Avg. Volume1,774,838
30 Day Avg. Volume2,111,589
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.15
Price to Book (P/B)4.74
Price to Sales (P/S)9.71
P/FCF Ratio-462.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$33.00Price Target Upside32.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
EPS Forecast (FY)1.41
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$481.25M
Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Aya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metal properties in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, tungsten, molybdenum...
How the Company Makes Money
Aya Gold & Silver makes money primarily by producing and selling silver from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when ore is mined and processed into saleable metal (or metal-bearing products) that are then sold to third-party buyers at pr...
Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial update: record revenue, a swing to profitability, robust cash generation, outstanding plant performance (throughput and recoveries above design), and compelling economics at Boumadine supported by aggressive, cost-efficient drilling. Management acknowledged and has largely addressed early ramp-up technical issues and outlined clear mitigations for cost pressures and operational improvements (open-pit grade control, throughput increases, exploration-led resource upgrades). Remaining near-term risks include commodity/consumable cost inflation, early high strip ratios that elevate 2026 unit costs, and some uncertainty around concentrate payabilities — none appear to negate the company’s strong momentum. Overall, highlights outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $202 million vs $39 million in 2024 (≈+418%), net income of $46 million after tax vs a $26 million loss in 2024 (positive swing of $72 million). Earnings per share ~$0.32–$0.33 for the year (≈+$0.10 EPS before stock-based compensation).
Negative Updates
Early Ramp-Up Technical Issues (Oxygen Plant)
Recoveries were in the low-80% range in early 2025 due to an under-designed oxygen plant; management fixed the issue but it caused lower early-period recoveries and required corrective CAPEX/operational focus.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $202 million vs $39 million in 2024 (≈+418%), net income of $46 million after tax vs a $26 million loss in 2024 (positive swing of $72 million). Earnings per share ~$0.32–$0.33 for the year (≈+$0.10 EPS before stock-based compensation).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aya’s guidance for 2026 targets company production of roughly 6.2–6.8 million ounces (management), while the Zgounder 43‑101 mine plan calls for ~6.0 Moz/yr for 11 years (average cash cost $16.26/oz, AISC ≈ $19/oz); management notes a 2026 operational forecast of ~5.8 Moz at Zgounder with a higher near‑term cash cost (~$21.50/oz) due to a 13–15x strip ratio and conservatively cites 5.2–5.8 Moz at Zgounder plus ~1.0 Moz AgEq from Boumadine tailings. Planned sustaining and growth CapEx is $36M, exploration is $60M (≈200,000 m at Boumadine and 20,000 m at Zgounder), throughput is being pushed from an average ~3,800 tpd to >4,000 tpd (ore sorter planned), and optimization work (ramp to granite) is budgeted. Boumadine PEA highlights: initial CapEx $446M, pre‑tax NPV $2.2B (at $2,800/oz Au and $30/oz Ag), IRR 69%, 1.3‑yr payback, first five‑year output ~400k AuEq/yr (~37.5M AgEq) at AISC ≈ $920/AuEq. Balance sheet metrics supporting the plan include $136M cash unrestricted (+$16M restricted), an available $10M tranche on the EBRD facility (part of a $100M loan), and management’s view that no new equity or debt is required to fast‑track Boumadine (company could generate ~ $200M net this year).Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 202.10M | 39.12M | 42.85M | 38.24M | 34.30M |
| Gross Profit | 83.17M | 5.38M | 15.81M | 10.28M | 16.01M |
| EBITDA | 101.11M | -21.28M | 11.73M | 11.17M | 8.54M |
| Net Income | 45.56M | -21.62M | 5.50M | 466.00K | -307.00K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 631.73M | 400.11M | 333.06M | 156.80M | 161.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.32M | 30.94M | 49.83M | 39.36M | 81.67M |
| Total Debt | 113.54M | 101.33M | 58.79M | 287.00K | 425.88K |
| Total Liabilities | 207.91M | 153.63M | 107.92M | 26.50M | 21.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 413.65M | 246.48M | 220.72M | 125.72M | 132.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -4.25M | -101.61M | -106.25M | -33.67M | -2.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 71.95M | -8.62M | 21.19M | 9.65M | 17.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -72.39M | -94.01M | -145.44M | -48.46M | -23.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.93M | 88.48M | 133.35M | 440.60K | 57.91M |
Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis
Neutral
24.82
Price Trends
23.04
Positive
23.40
Negative
19.48
Positive
Market Momentum
0.68
Positive
44.76
Neutral
21.35
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 24.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 25.05, above the 50-day MA of 23.04, and above the 200-day MA of 19.48, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.76 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.35 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AYA.
Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$3.94B | 6.84 | 20.79% | ― | -4.16% | 116.44% | |
78 Outperform | C$1.04B | 5.08 | 20.32% | ― | 67.83% | 342.70% | |
74 Outperform | C$3.34B | 11.49 | 20.80% | ― | 313.42% | ― | |
71 Outperform | C$3.79B | -29.08 | -2.37% | 0.29% | 39.63% | -121.64% | |
65 Neutral | C$1.06B | 20.50 | 25.34% | ― | 17.40% | -74.00% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
23.37
12.07
106.81%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Mining Corp
12.93
4.89
60.82%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
17.20
11.82
219.41%
TSE:SCZ
Santacruz Silver Mining
11.46
9.08
381.51%
TSE:APM
Andean Precious Metals
6.95
5.04
263.87%
Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Posts Record 2025 Results as Zgounder Ramp-Up and Boumadine Advance Fuel Growth
Positive
Mar 31, 2026
Aya Gold Silver reported record 2025 results, with revenue surging five-fold to $202 million on a tripling of silver-equivalent production to 5.0 million ounces, driven by the successful ramp-up of the Zgounder mine. The company swung to a $46 mi...
Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Fast-Tracks Boumadine Feasibility Study in Morocco
Positive
Mar 12, 2026
Aya Gold Silver has launched a feasibility-level work program for its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco, accelerating development following a positive 2025 preliminary economic assessment. The company has engaged several leading engineeri...
Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Boumadine Footprint With New High-Grade Structure and Added Licence
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Aya Gold Silver reported high-grade drilling results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, highlighted by the discovery of a new parallel mineralized structure about 500 metres east of the main 5.4-kilometre trend. The company has drilled nearly...
Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Extends Boumadine Mineralization With New Structure and High-Grade Hits
Positive
Feb 24, 2026
Aya Gold Silver has reported new high-grade drill results at its Boumadine project in Morocco and identified a new parallel mineralized structure about 500 metres east of the main trend. The intercepts include strong silver-equivalent grades over...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.