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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA
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Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:AYA

Aya Gold & Silver

(TSX:AYA)

Rating:51Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
▼(-3.10% Downside)
Aya Gold & Silver's overall score is driven by strong earnings call performance and stable financials, but is weighed down by profitability challenges and a negative valuation. The technical analysis suggests a neutral market position.
Positive Factors
Financial Liquidity
Aya received approval for a $25M credit facility with EBRD, providing the company with ample liquidity.
Mining Expansion
The ongoing expansion of Aya's Zgounder mine is expected to substantially increase silver production beginning in 2025.
Plant Optimization
Mill throughput and recoveries both beat the forecast and continue to set record highs as Aya continues to optimize the plant.
Negative Factors
Production Costs
Q4 production costs were higher than estimated, with adjusted cash costs exceeding the previous estimate.
Production Output
Aya reported Q2 silver production from Zgounder of 1,042koz, below expectations as a result of silver grades, which declined.
Revenue and Sales
Q4 revenue of $9M was below the estimate of $15M, driven by lower silver sales.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metal properties in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, tungsten, molybdenum, uranium, and copper deposits. Its flagship project is the Zgounder property located approximately 265 kms east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco. Aya Gold & Silver Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Montreal, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver generates revenue primarily through the extraction, production, and sale of silver and gold from its mining operations. The company's core revenue stream comes from its flagship Zgounder Silver Mine, where it produces and sells silver bullion and concentrates. Additional revenue is derived from exploration and development activities that may lead to the discovery of new mineral resources, enhancing production capacity and future sales potential. The company may also engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to expand its operational capabilities and market reach. Factors such as global commodity prices, operational efficiency, and successful exploration and development projects significantly influence Aya Gold & Silver's earnings.

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 14, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant achievements in production, financial performance, and operational efficiency. Despite challenges with grade dilution and some delays in exploration results, the company maintains a strong outlook and financial position.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Silver Production
Aya Gold & Silver reached 10 million ounces of silver production since April 2020, with Q2 2025 production at 1,042,000 ounces.
Strong Financial Performance
Q2 2025 revenue was $38.6 million, with cash flow from operations at $8 million for the quarter and $15 million for the first half of 2025.
Solid Balance Sheet
The company has $114 million in cash, a $25 million line of credit, and completed a CAD 140 million (USD 100 million) equity raise in June.
Operational Efficiency
Plant availability was at 98%, surpassing industry standards, with recovery rates reaching 92% in June.
Exploration Success
Continued positive exploration results at Zgounder and Boumadine, with 33,000 meters of drilling completed in Q2.
Successful Fundraising
Aya received $8 million in compensation for an EPC contractual breach, further strengthening its financial position.
Positive Outlook for H2 2025
The company expects to meet its production guidance of 5 to 5.3 million ounces of silver for the year.
Negative Updates
Dilution Challenges
The average grade issue due to dilution is a key challenge, with efforts focused on improving mining selectivity and operational control.
Open Pit Preparation
Operational flexibility in the open pit was constrained, affecting grade management, but improvements are expected by Q4.
Delayed Exploration Results
Exploration results have been delayed as priority was given to production samples over exploration samples.
Company Guidance
During Aya Gold & Silver's Q2 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance across multiple operational and financial metrics. Notably, they achieved silver production of 1,042,000 ounces in Q2, complementing their total production of over 10 million ounces since management took over in April 2020. The quarter's silver revenue stood at USD 38.6 million, with a cash flow from operations of USD 8 million, resulting in a total of USD 15 million for the first half of the year. The balance sheet remains strong, boasting USD 114 million in cash and a USD 25 million line of credit. Operational KPIs indicated a processing rate increase to 3,000 tonnes per day, with a recovery rate averaging 86.5% in Q2, peaking at 92% in June. Plant availability was at an impressive 98%, exceeding industry standards. The company also highlighted ongoing exploration activities, robust community engagement with 26 new initiatives, and successful equity raising, further strengthening their financial position. Looking forward, the company maintains its production guidance of 5 to 5.3 million ounces for 2025, with expectations of improved grades and reduced dilution in H2.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aya Gold & Silver faces financial challenges with recent revenue growth offset by profitability issues and high capital expenditures affecting cash flows. The balance sheet remains relatively stable, but the company needs to improve operational efficiency and cash flow management to strengthen its financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows fluctuating performance with recent TTM revenue growth but negative profitability metrics. Gross profit margin in the TTM is approximately 22.5%, but both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. The net profit margin is also negative at -17.9%, reflecting ongoing challenges in converting revenue into profit.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The equity ratio stands at approximately 62%, indicating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity is negative due to losses, which is a concern for shareholder value.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges with negative free cash flow, indicating high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is less than optimal, although there is a positive operating cash flow in the TTM, suggesting some improvement in cash generation.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue92.81M39.12M42.85M38.24M34.30M13.82M
Gross Profit19.32M5.38M15.81M10.28M16.01M4.04M
EBITDA6.89M-21.28M11.73M11.17M8.54M1.50M
Net Income-10.16M-21.62M5.50M466.00K-307.00K-2.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets565.77M400.11M333.06M156.80M161.26M72.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments113.83M30.94M49.83M39.36M81.67M30.53M
Total Debt98.10M96.92M58.79M287.00K425.88K316.33K
Total Liabilities178.53M153.63M107.92M26.50M21.26M10.15M
Stockholders Equity387.42M246.48M220.72M125.72M132.95M61.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-56.95M-101.61M-106.25M-33.67M-2.74M-2.66M
Operating Cash Flow12.02M-8.62M21.19M9.65M17.54M1.28M
Investing Cash Flow-73.11M-94.01M-145.44M-48.46M-23.59M-6.48M
Financing Cash Flow90.81M88.48M133.35M440.60K57.91M18.29M

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price12.90
Price Trends
50DMA
12.65
Positive
100DMA
11.91
Positive
200DMA
12.03
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.06
Negative
RSI
55.23
Neutral
STOCH
84.05
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 12.9 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.30, above the 50-day MA of 12.65, and above the 200-day MA of 12.03, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of -0.06 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 55.23 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.05 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
61
Neutral
$10.31B6.180.76%2.94%3.30%-36.34%
51
Neutral
C$1.83B152.08-3.11%130.83%-208.57%
$2.31B13.9211.63%
$2.49B23.9617.75%1.66%
$1.02B17.828.70%0.53%
42
Neutral
C$422.85M-22.01%27.67%
$2.34B-3.52%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
12.90
-2.04
-13.65%
FSM
Fortuna Mining Corp
7.58
2.95
63.71%
MAG
MAG Silver
23.95
11.11
86.53%
SVM
Silvercorp Metals
4.68
0.75
19.08%
TSE:DV
Dolly Varden Silver
5.00
0.76
17.92%
DSVSF
Discovery Silver
2.96
2.50
543.48%

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Q2-2025 Results with Strong Production and Revenue Growth
Positive
Aug 14, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported strong financial and operational results for Q2-2025, with a significant increase in silver production and revenue driven by the ramp-up of the Zgounder plant. The company achieved record revenue of $38.6 million, reflecting a 182% year-over-year increase, and produced 1.04 million ounces of silver, up 141% from the previous year. Aya’s strategic focus on development and exploration is evidenced by the progress at Zgounder and the identification of a new target at Boumadine, positioning the company for long-term growth and value creation for shareholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $8 Million for Zgounder Expansion
Positive
Aug 7, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced that its subsidiary, Zgounder Millenium Silver Mining, received a US$8 million payment under bank guarantees related to the Zgounder Expansion Project. This compensation underscores Aya’s strong project oversight and disciplined contract enforcement, potentially enhancing its operational stability and industry positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Silver Production in Q2-2025
Positive
Jul 24, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported a significant increase in silver production for Q2-2025, achieving 1.04 million ounces, a 140.9% increase from the previous year. The company attributes this success to strong operational execution and improvements in their new plant, which is now operating above nameplate capacity. The ramp-up period has seen enhanced mining rates and recovery percentages, with July operations already exceeding expectations. These developments are expected to position Aya strongly for the second half of 2025, with further increases in milling capacity anticipated and ongoing initiatives to optimize mining operations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising Exploration Results at Boumadine
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced significant high-grade exploration results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Imariren mineralized trend to 1 km and identifying a new high-grade Asirem zone to the west. These findings enhance Boumadine’s potential as a large-scale, high-grade project, demonstrating strong continuity along the Boumadine Main Trend and significant resource growth potential, which could positively impact Aya’s market position and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Exploration at Zgounder with New Permits
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced significant progress in its exploration efforts at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, reporting high-grade silver results from its ongoing drill exploration program. The company has also expanded its exploration footprint by acquiring six new permits, increasing the area by 11.9% to over 452.7 square kilometers. This strategic expansion aims to explore for satellite deposits and strengthen Aya’s position in the silver mining sector. The commencement of drilling in the Far East permits and the identification of high-impact targets underscore the potential for further mineralization, which could enhance the company’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Strong May Production at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reported strong silver production results for May at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, with silver recoveries reaching 88% and mill throughput exceeding expectations. The company is ahead of its ramp-up schedule, with open-pit expansion and increased milling capacity positioning it for a robust second half of the year, highlighting the mine’s full potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $25M EBRD Credit for Moroccan Project
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has secured a US$25 million credit facility from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to advance its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco. This strategic financing underscores Boumadine’s potential and positions Aya for significant growth, enhancing local workforce development and supply chain improvements, while solidifying EBRD’s role as a key financing partner for future mine construction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aya Gold & Silver Elects Directors at Annual General Meeting
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver announced that all nominees listed in the management proxy circular were elected as directors at its annual general meeting. With 53.23% of issued and outstanding shares represented, the election results reflect strong shareholder support, potentially strengthening Aya’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $143.8 Million in Upsized Public Offering
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has successfully closed an upsized underwritten public offering of common shares, raising approximately $143.8 million. This financing strengthens Aya’s liquidity, enabling the company to advance its exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, enhance operational performance, and deliver long-term value to shareholders. The capital raised positions Aya to unlock the value of its projects and maintain strong cash flow, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aya Gold & Silver Files Prospectus Supplement for $125 Million Equity Financing
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has filed a prospectus supplement for a previously announced bought deal equity financing, aiming to raise gross proceeds of $125 million through the sale of over 9 million common shares. The funds will be used to advance exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. This move is expected to bolster Aya’s exploration efforts and enhance its market position in the silver mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Upsizes Equity Financing to $125 Million
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has increased its previously announced bought deal equity financing to $125 million due to high demand. The proceeds will be used to advance exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. This move is expected to strengthen Aya’s financial position and support its growth strategy in the silver mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $100 Million in Bought Deal Offering
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced a $100 million bought deal offering of common shares, with Desjardins Capital Markets as the sole bookrunner. The proceeds will be used to advance exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. This move is expected to support Aya’s growth objectives and strengthen its market position in the silver mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Boumadine Exploration with High-Grade Results
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced significant high-grade exploration results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Imariren mineralized zone by 400 meters and acquiring four new regional permits. These developments enhance the company’s exploration footprint by 15.7%, positioning it strongly to unlock the full potential of the Boumadine deposit, which shows promise as a large-scale, high-grade resource.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$21.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising High-Grade Silver Discoveries at Zgounder
Positive
May 21, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has reported significant high-grade silver results from its ongoing drilling program at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The results, which include some of the best to date, indicate strong continuity at depth and the discovery of a new high-grade zone outside the current resource model. Additionally, the company has identified several high-priority regional targets with potential for new discoveries, enhancing its exploration prospects and potentially strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Releases 2024 Sustainability Report Highlighting ESG Achievements
Positive
May 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has published its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant progress in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) areas. The report, aligned with the TCFD framework and Global Reporting Standards, showcases achievements such as a 48.53% decrease in emissions intensity, a 20% increase in female workforce representation, and joining the UN Global Compact. These efforts underscore Aya’s commitment to sustainability and responsible mining, reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 24, 2025