Want to see TSE:AYA full AI Analyst Report?
Top Page
Aya Gold & Silver
(TSX:AYA)
Select Model
Select Model
Rating:67Neutral
Price Target:
C$32.00
▲(28.93% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:06/13/26
The score is driven primarily by strong recent profitability and revenue growth alongside a moderate-leverage balance sheet, offset by volatile/free-cash-flow weakness. Technicals remain constructive on trend but mixed on momentum, while valuation (P/E ~31 and no dividend yield provided) is a secondary headwind.
Positive Factors
Improved Profitability
Aya's step-up to larger scale with ~40% revenue growth and high gross/operating margins signals structurally improved unit economics. Durable margin expansion implies better operating leverage and the ability to absorb some commodity swings while supporting reinvestment and debt service over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Volatile Free Cash Flow
Repeated negative and volatile free cash flow suggests cash returns to shareholders and discretionary investment are uncertain. Large FCF swings likely reflect heavy reinvestment and working-capital moves, increasing the chance the company must access external funding in downturns, weakening long-term financial predictability.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved Profitability
Aya's step-up to larger scale with ~40% revenue growth and high gross/operating margins signals structurally improved unit economics. Durable margin expansion implies better operating leverage and the ability to absorb some commodity swings while supporting reinvestment and debt service over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$3.77B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.11M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.4
Beta (1Y)3.80
Revenue Growth313.42%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees810
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustrySilver
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.62
Shares Outstanding143,349,750
10 Day Avg. Volume1,774,838
30 Day Avg. Volume2,111,589
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.15
Price to Book (P/B)4.74
Price to Sales (P/S)9.71
P/FCF Ratio-462.35
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$37.50Price Target Upside51.09% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)1.4
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$474.50M
Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Montreal, Canada-based Aya Gold & Silver Inc., operating alongside its subsidiaries, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, appraisal, and development of valuable mineral properties across Morocco. The firm's exploration efforts are primarily di...
How the Company Makes Money
Aya Gold & Silver makes money primarily by producing and selling silver from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when ore is mined and processed into saleable metal (or metal-bearing products) that are then sold to third-party buyers at pr...
Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 31, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strongly positive operational and financial update: record revenue, a swing to profitability, robust cash generation, outstanding plant performance (throughput and recoveries above design), and compelling economics at Boumadine supported by aggressive, cost-efficient drilling. Management acknowledged and has largely addressed early ramp-up technical issues and outlined clear mitigations for cost pressures and operational improvements (open-pit grade control, throughput increases, exploration-led resource upgrades). Remaining near-term risks include commodity/consumable cost inflation, early high strip ratios that elevate 2026 unit costs, and some uncertainty around concentrate payabilities — none appear to negate the company’s strong momentum. Overall, highlights outweigh the challenges.Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $202 million vs $39 million in 2024 (≈+418%), net income of $46 million after tax vs a $26 million loss in 2024 (positive swing of $72 million). Earnings per share ~$0.32–$0.33 for the year (≈+$0.10 EPS before stock-based compensation).
Negative Updates
Early Ramp-Up Technical Issues (Oxygen Plant)
Recoveries were in the low-80% range in early 2025 due to an under-designed oxygen plant; management fixed the issue but it caused lower early-period recoveries and required corrective CAPEX/operational focus.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Revenue and Profitability
Full-year 2025 revenue of $202 million vs $39 million in 2024 (≈+418%), net income of $46 million after tax vs a $26 million loss in 2024 (positive swing of $72 million). Earnings per share ~$0.32–$0.33 for the year (≈+$0.10 EPS before stock-based compensation).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Aya’s guidance for 2026 targets company production of roughly 6.2–6.8 million ounces (management), while the Zgounder 43‑101 mine plan calls for ~6.0 Moz/yr for 11 years (average cash cost $16.26/oz, AISC ≈ $19/oz); management notes a 2026 operational forecast of ~5.8 Moz at Zgounder with a higher near‑term cash cost (~$21.50/oz) due to a 13–15x strip ratio and conservatively cites 5.2–5.8 Moz at Zgounder plus ~1.0 Moz AgEq from Boumadine tailings. Planned sustaining and growth CapEx is $36M, exploration is $60M (≈200,000 m at Boumadine and 20,000 m at Zgounder), throughput is being pushed from an average ~3,800 tpd to >4,000 tpd (ore sorter planned), and optimization work (ramp to granite) is budgeted. Boumadine PEA highlights: initial CapEx $446M, pre‑tax NPV $2.2B (at $2,800/oz Au and $30/oz Ag), IRR 69%, 1.3‑yr payback, first five‑year output ~400k AuEq/yr (~37.5M AgEq) at AISC ≈ $920/AuEq. Balance sheet metrics supporting the plan include $136M cash unrestricted (+$16M restricted), an available $10M tranche on the EBRD facility (part of a $100M loan), and management’s view that no new equity or debt is required to fast‑track Boumadine (company could generate ~ $200M net this year).Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
84
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
76
Positive
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 202.10M | 39.12M | 42.85M | 38.24M | 34.30M |
| Gross Profit | 83.17M | 5.38M | 15.81M | 10.28M | 16.01M |
| EBITDA | 101.11M | -21.28M | 11.73M | 11.17M | 8.54M |
| Net Income | 45.56M | -21.62M | 5.50M | 466.00K | -307.00K |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 631.73M | 400.11M | 333.06M | 156.80M | 161.26M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 136.32M | 30.94M | 49.83M | 39.36M | 81.67M |
| Total Debt | 113.54M | 101.33M | 58.79M | 287.00K | 425.88K |
| Total Liabilities | 207.91M | 153.63M | 107.92M | 26.50M | 21.26M |
| Stockholders Equity | 413.65M | 246.48M | 220.72M | 125.72M | 132.95M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -4.25M | -101.61M | -106.25M | -33.67M | -2.74M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 71.95M | -8.62M | 21.19M | 9.65M | 17.54M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -72.39M | -94.01M | -145.44M | -48.46M | -23.59M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 104.93M | 88.48M | 133.35M | 440.60K | 57.91M |
Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis
Negative
24.82
Price Trends
26.76
Negative
24.90
Positive
22.12
Positive
Market Momentum
0.17
Positive
47.13
Neutral
33.59
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 24.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.26, below the 50-day MA of 26.76, and above the 200-day MA of 22.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.17 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 47.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.59 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:AYA.
Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$3.47B | 7.35 | 20.79% | ― | -4.16% | 116.44% | |
74 Outperform | C$880.72M | 4.22 | 20.32% | ― | 67.83% | 342.70% | |
70 Outperform | C$775.31M | 8.78 | 33.35% | ― | 26.70% | 31.54% | |
69 Neutral | C$2.77B | -197.78 | -1.30% | 0.29% | 45.46% | -115.31% | |
67 Neutral | C$3.77B | 30.41 | 20.80% | ― | 313.42% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
26.29
12.55
91.34%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Mining Corp
11.44
2.23
24.21%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
12.52
6.22
98.67%
TSE:SCZ
Santacruz Silver Mining
8.36
2.60
45.14%
TSE:APM
Andean Precious Metals
5.86
1.74
42.23%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.