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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA
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Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

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Aya Gold & Silver

(TSX:AYA)

Rating:56Neutral
Price Target:
C$12.50
▼(-3.99%Downside)
Aya Gold & Silver's overall stock score is driven by a combination of financial challenges and positive corporate developments. The strong financial position is offset by profitability issues and modest technical indicators. Positive earnings call sentiment and strategic corporate events offer potential upside.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Upsized equity raise bolsters Aya's treasury, providing ample liquidity for future endeavors.
Production Expansion
The ongoing expansion of Aya's Zgounder mine is expected to substantially increase silver production beginning in 2025.
Negative Factors
Production Costs
Q4 production costs were above the estimate, with adjusted cash costs exceeding the previous estimate.
Revenue Performance
Q4 revenue of $9M was below the $15M estimate, driven by lower silver sales.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver (AYA) is a publicly traded mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of precious metals, primarily gold and silver. The company operates in the mining sector and is known for its high-quality mining assets in Morocco, including the Zgounder Silver Mine, which is one of the highest-grade silver mines in the world. Aya Gold & Silver's operations are committed to sustainable development and delivering value to shareholders through efficient resource management and production practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver primarily generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of precious metals, with a focus on silver and gold. The company's revenue model is centered around its mining operations, where it extracts ore, processes it to separate and purify the metals, and then sells the refined metals at market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of silver and gold produced at its mining sites. The company's earnings are influenced by global precious metal prices, which can fluctuate based on market demand, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions. Additionally, Aya Gold & Silver may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 13, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 29.81%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted a successful ramp-up of the new plant with increased production and strong liquidity, despite facing challenges with recoveries and grades. The company is addressing these issues and expects improvements in the coming quarters.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Successful Ramp-Up of New Plant
The new plant was built on budget and commissioned on time. It reached nameplate capacity within a couple of weeks and is now operating above nameplate capacity.
Increased Gold Production
Gold production increased significantly to 1,069,000 ounces, exceeding previous quarters.
Strong Liquidity Position
With $37 million in cash and restricted cash, $11 million in accounts receivable, and a new $25 million credit facility, the company's liquidity is very strong.
Exploration Success at Boumadine
Completed 46,000 meters of drilling in Q1, adding 100 million ounces of silver equivalent to the mineral resource.
Positive Financial Performance
Record revenue of $33 million, with a net income of nearly $7 million and operating cash flow of $7.9 million for Q1 2025.
High Plant Availability and Throughput
The plant's throughput exceeds nameplate capacity, and mill availability is in the high 90s.
Negative Updates
Lower Than Expected Recoveries
Q1 recoveries were at 82%, below the feasibility study expectations of 89%. The issue is attributed to the oxygen plant not operating at full capacity.
Grade Challenges in Underground Mining
The average grade was lower than expected, primarily due to issues in underground mining. Efforts are underway to improve this.
Mechanical Issues with the Oxygen Plant
The oxygen plant, crucial for improving recoveries, has not been working at its capacity and requires repairs.
Company Guidance
In the Q1 2025 earnings call, Aya Gold and Silver highlighted several key metrics reflecting the progress of their operations. The Zgounder mine expansion ramp-up led to enhanced production, with gold output reaching 1,069,000 ounces, significantly surpassing the previous quarter. The open pit ore mined represented approximately 68% of total ore mined, aligning closely with their 70%-30% open pit to underground target. The plant throughput exceeded nameplate capacity, while mill availability was in the high 90s. However, recoveries were at 82%, below the feasibility study target of 89%, due to issues with the oxygen plant, which are currently being addressed. The company reported a cash and restricted cash position of $37 million, supplemented by $11 million in accounts receivable and an additional $25 million credit facility from EBRD, positioning Aya with strong liquidity. The exploration efforts included nearly 3,000 meters drilled at Zgounder and 46,000 meters at Boumadine, contributing to an updated mineral resource estimate adding 100 million ounces of silver equivalent. Aya reiterated its annual guidance, projecting silver production between 5 and 5.3 million ounces, with cash costs between $15 and $17.5 per ounce and sustaining CapEx adding about $1 to $1.5 per ounce to the total cost.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aya Gold & Silver has shown revenue growth but suffers from negative profitability metrics and high capital expenditures. Despite a solid balance sheet with low leverage, operational inefficiencies and negative cash flow challenge financial health.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
The income statement shows fluctuating performance with recent TTM revenue growth but negative profitability metrics. Gross profit margin in the TTM is approximately 22.5%, but both EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, indicating operational inefficiencies. The net profit margin is also negative at -17.9%, reflecting ongoing challenges in converting revenue into profit.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.38, suggesting manageable leverage levels. The equity ratio stands at approximately 62%, indicating a solid equity base. However, the return on equity is negative due to losses, which is a concern for shareholder value.
Cash Flow
40
Negative
Cash flow analysis reveals significant challenges with negative free cash flow, indicating high capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is less than optimal, although there is a positive operating cash flow in the TTM, suggesting some improvement in cash generation.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue39.12M42.85M38.24M34.30M13.82M
Gross Profit5.38M15.81M10.28M16.01M4.04M
EBITDA-21.28M11.73M11.17M8.54M1.50M
Net Income-21.62M5.50M466.00K-307.00K-2.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets400.11M333.06M156.80M161.26M72.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments30.94M49.83M39.36M81.67M30.53M
Total Debt96.92M58.79M287.00K425.88K316.33K
Total Liabilities153.63M107.92M26.50M21.26M10.15M
Stockholders Equity246.48M220.72M125.72M132.95M61.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-101.61M-106.25M-33.67M-2.74M-2.66M
Operating Cash Flow-8.62M21.19M9.65M17.54M1.28M
Investing Cash Flow-94.01M-145.44M-48.46M-23.59M-6.48M
Financing Cash Flow88.48M133.35M440.60K57.91M18.29M

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price13.02
Price Trends
50DMA
12.32
Positive
100DMA
11.71
Positive
200DMA
12.79
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.18
Negative
RSI
53.92
Neutral
STOCH
60.68
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 13.02 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.61, above the 50-day MA of 12.32, and above the 200-day MA of 12.79, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.92 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.68 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (44)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSFVI
79
Outperform
C$2.72B12.1412.07%30.33%
TSSVM
78
Outperform
C$1.39B15.989.62%0.54%43.39%46.62%
TSMAG
57
Neutral
$3.04B23.5216.27%11.43%61.66%
TSAYA
56
Neutral
C$1.85B152.08-4.59%88.60%-684.16%
TSDSV
48
Neutral
$2.58B-24.80%-26.88%
44
Neutral
C$967.00M-6.65-13.73%2.47%17.55%-32.57%
TSDV
42
Neutral
C$436.89M-21.78%31.39%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
13.13
-1.35
-9.32%
TSE:MAG
MAG Silver
29.09
11.45
64.96%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Mining Corp
8.83
1.94
28.16%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
6.09
1.04
20.69%
TSE:DSV
Discovery Silver
3.14
2.23
245.05%
TSE:DV
Dolly Varden Silver
5.19
0.75
16.89%

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising Exploration Results at Boumadine
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced significant high-grade exploration results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Imariren mineralized trend to 1 km and identifying a new high-grade Asirem zone to the west. These findings enhance Boumadine’s potential as a large-scale, high-grade project, demonstrating strong continuity along the Boumadine Main Trend and significant resource growth potential, which could positively impact Aya’s market position and stakeholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Exploration at Zgounder with New Permits
Positive
Jun 26, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced significant progress in its exploration efforts at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, reporting high-grade silver results from its ongoing drill exploration program. The company has also expanded its exploration footprint by acquiring six new permits, increasing the area by 11.9% to over 452.7 square kilometers. This strategic expansion aims to explore for satellite deposits and strengthen Aya’s position in the silver mining sector. The commencement of drilling in the Far East permits and the identification of high-impact targets underscore the potential for further mineralization, which could enhance the company’s operational capabilities and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Strong May Production at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Jun 25, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reported strong silver production results for May at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, with silver recoveries reaching 88% and mill throughput exceeding expectations. The company is ahead of its ramp-up schedule, with open-pit expansion and increased milling capacity positioning it for a robust second half of the year, highlighting the mine’s full potential.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $25M EBRD Credit for Moroccan Project
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has secured a US$25 million credit facility from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to advance its Boumadine polymetallic project in Morocco. This strategic financing underscores Boumadine’s potential and positions Aya for significant growth, enhancing local workforce development and supply chain improvements, while solidifying EBRD’s role as a key financing partner for future mine construction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Aya Gold & Silver Elects Directors at Annual General Meeting
Positive
Jun 20, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver announced that all nominees listed in the management proxy circular were elected as directors at its annual general meeting. With 53.23% of issued and outstanding shares represented, the election results reflect strong shareholder support, potentially strengthening Aya’s governance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $143.8 Million in Upsized Public Offering
Positive
Jun 18, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has successfully closed an upsized underwritten public offering of common shares, raising approximately $143.8 million. This financing strengthens Aya’s liquidity, enabling the company to advance its exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, enhance operational performance, and deliver long-term value to shareholders. The capital raised positions Aya to unlock the value of its projects and maintain strong cash flow, reflecting investor confidence in its strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aya Gold & Silver Files Prospectus Supplement for $125 Million Equity Financing
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has filed a prospectus supplement for a previously announced bought deal equity financing, aiming to raise gross proceeds of $125 million through the sale of over 9 million common shares. The funds will be used to advance exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. This move is expected to bolster Aya’s exploration efforts and enhance its market position in the silver mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Upsizes Equity Financing to $125 Million
Positive
Jun 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has increased its previously announced bought deal equity financing to $125 million due to high demand. The proceeds will be used to advance exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. This move is expected to strengthen Aya’s financial position and support its growth strategy in the silver mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $100 Million in Bought Deal Offering
Positive
Jun 10, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced a $100 million bought deal offering of common shares, with Desjardins Capital Markets as the sole bookrunner. The proceeds will be used to advance exploration programs at Boumadine and Zgounder Regional, as well as for working capital and general corporate purposes. This move is expected to support Aya’s growth objectives and strengthen its market position in the silver mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Expands Boumadine Exploration with High-Grade Results
Positive
Jun 5, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced significant high-grade exploration results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Imariren mineralized zone by 400 meters and acquiring four new regional permits. These developments enhance the company’s exploration footprint by 15.7%, positioning it strongly to unlock the full potential of the Boumadine deposit, which shows promise as a large-scale, high-grade resource.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$21.75 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising High-Grade Silver Discoveries at Zgounder
Positive
May 21, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has reported significant high-grade silver results from its ongoing drilling program at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. The results, which include some of the best to date, indicate strong continuity at depth and the discovery of a new high-grade zone outside the current resource model. Additionally, the company has identified several high-priority regional targets with potential for new discoveries, enhancing its exploration prospects and potentially strengthening its market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Releases 2024 Sustainability Report Highlighting ESG Achievements
Positive
May 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has published its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant progress in environmental, social, and governance (ESG) areas. The report, aligned with the TCFD framework and Global Reporting Standards, showcases achievements such as a 48.53% decrease in emissions intensity, a 20% increase in female workforce representation, and joining the UN Global Compact. These efforts underscore Aya’s commitment to sustainability and responsible mining, reinforcing its leadership position in the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Q1-2025 Results and Strengthens Growth Strategy
Positive
May 13, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported record-breaking financial and operational results for Q1-2025, with silver production increasing by 192% and revenues surging by 566% compared to the previous year. The company strengthened its liquidity position with a $25 million credit facility and continued its growth strategy with successful ramp-up operations, enhanced ESG initiatives, and strategic developments, positioning itself for sustainable growth and profitability.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Secures $25M EBRD Credit Facility for Moroccan Growth
Positive
May 12, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has secured a US$25 million credit facility from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to support its growth strategy in Morocco, particularly the development of the Boumadine polymetallic project. This endorsement from EBRD highlights Aya’s strong operational and financial track record, reinforcing its leadership position in Morocco and its commitment to sustainable growth, while enhancing financial flexibility and strengthening its balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:AYA) stock is a Buy with a C$22.0000 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Aya Gold & Silver stock, see the TSE:AYA Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Strong April Production at Zgounder Mine
Positive
May 9, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reported strong operational progress at its Zgounder Silver Mine, with April 2025 production metrics showing significant improvements. The mine ramp-up exceeded expectations, with increased mine production and mill throughput, while recovery rates are expected to improve further with ongoing corrective actions. The company’s focus on optimizing oxygen production and collaborating with equipment suppliers aims to enhance long-term performance, confirming its commitment to maximizing throughput and strengthening cash flow.

Financial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver to Announce Q1 2025 Results
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 results on May 13, 2025, followed by a conference call to discuss financial and operational outcomes. This announcement highlights Aya’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, reinforcing its position as a key player in the silver mining industry.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 11, 2025