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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:AYA

Aya Gold & Silver

(TSX:AYA)

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Neutral 66 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:66Neutral
Price Target:
C$21.00
▲(8.14% Upside)
Aya Gold & Silver's strong technical indicators and positive earnings call contribute significantly to its score. However, high valuation concerns and profitability challenges weigh down the overall score. The company's robust growth and operational performance are promising, but financial efficiency and cost management need improvement.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Strong revenue growth indicates effective market penetration and demand for Aya's products, supporting long-term business expansion.
Exploration Success
Successful exploration enhances resource estimates, potentially increasing future production capacity and revenue streams.
Operational Efficiency
Exceeding processing capacity demonstrates operational efficiency, which can lead to higher production and profitability.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Negative profit margins indicate challenges in cost management, which could hinder long-term financial performance.
Production Cost Issues
Higher production costs can compress margins and reduce competitiveness, affecting long-term profitability.
Cash Flow Management
Negative cash flow growth suggests difficulties in generating sufficient cash, which may impact future investments and operations.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver Inc. is a mining company focused on the exploration, development, and production of precious metals, primarily gold and silver. Headquartered in Canada, the company operates in various regions, with a significant presence in Morocco where it is engaged in mining activities. Aya Gold & Silver is dedicated to sustainable mining practices and aims to enhance its resource portfolio while delivering value to its stakeholders through ongoing exploration and operational efficiencies.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and silver produced from its mining operations. The company operates several projects that contribute to its output, allowing it to capitalize on the rising prices of these precious metals. Key revenue streams include the direct sales of mined silver and gold, as well as potential future revenues from any joint ventures or partnerships with other mining firms, which may enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Additionally, the company benefits from investments in exploration activities, which may lead to the discovery of new resources and subsequent increases in production capacity, ultimately contributing to its financial growth.

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 11, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 01, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted strong financial performance and operational achievements, including record revenue and improved processing rates. However, challenges in managing production costs and open pit grades present ongoing concerns.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue and Cash Flow
Aya Gold & Silver reported $54 million in revenue for Q3 2025 and generated $22 million in cash flow from operations, achieving record net income of $12.4 million ($0.09 per share).
Plant Processing Rate Exceeds Expectations
The plant's processing rate increased from 2,700 tonnes per day in Q1 to 4,000 tonnes per day in November 2025, surpassing the initial design capacity.
High Mill Recoveries and Availability
Mill recoveries were at 92.5% with plant availability at 96%, indicating strong operational performance.
Strong Cash Position
Aya Gold & Silver ended Q3 2025 with $129 million in unrestricted cash and an undrawn credit facility of $10 million from EBRD.
Positive Exploration Results
The company drilled 19,659 meters at Zgounder and 109,000 meters at Boumadine, with significant exploration potential in Morocco.
Negative Updates
Higher Production Costs
Production costs were higher than anticipated at $20 per ounce, with the target being $18.50, primarily due to increased cyanide prices.
Open Pit Grade Challenges
The company experienced lower grades in the open pit, which they are working to improve through better dilution management and ore recovery.
Underground Mining Concerns
There were historical issues with grade and dilution in underground mining, though improvements are being made.
Company Guidance
During Aya Gold & Silver's Q3 2025 earnings call, the company provided robust guidance across multiple metrics. The company reported a strong production performance, producing 1,347,000 ounces of silver and achieving an impressive mill recovery rate of 92.5%. The mill plant's ramp-up has exceeded expectations, with the processing rate reaching 4,000 tonnes per day, although it's expected to stabilize between 3,700 and 3,800 tonnes. Financially, Aya reported $54 million in revenue and $22 million in operational cash flow for the quarter, finishing with $129 million in unrestricted cash and $16 million in restricted cash. Despite cost challenges primarily due to cyanide prices, the company maintained a strong margin, and they foresee further improvements with silver prices reaching $50. On the exploration front, Aya conducted significant drilling at its Zgounder and Boumadine sites, with Boumadine's PEA post-tax NPV estimated at $1.5 billion. The company also emphasized its commitment to ESG, advancing towards ISO 14001 environmental certification. Overall, Aya's financial health and operational advancements position it strongly for continued growth.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aya Gold & Silver shows strong revenue growth but struggles with profitability and cash flow management. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, but operational efficiency and cash flow generation need improvement for sustainable growth.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Aya Gold & Silver's income statement shows a mixed performance. The TTM data indicates a significant revenue growth rate of 36.74%, which is a positive sign. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit and EBIT margins. The gross profit margin has improved over the years, but the company needs to address its operational inefficiencies to enhance profitability.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a moderate financial position. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively low at 0.38, indicating manageable leverage. However, the return on equity is negative, suggesting that the company is not generating sufficient returns on shareholders' equity. The equity ratio is healthy, showing a strong equity base relative to total assets.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals challenges in generating positive free cash flow, with a negative free cash flow growth rate in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to convert income into cash, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is concerningly negative. The company needs to improve its cash flow management to support operations and growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue92.81M39.12M42.85M38.24M34.30M13.82M
Gross Profit19.32M5.38M15.81M10.28M16.01M4.04M
EBITDA6.89M-21.28M11.73M11.17M8.54M1.50M
Net Income-10.16M-21.62M5.50M466.00K-307.00K-2.28M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets565.77M400.11M333.06M156.80M161.26M72.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments113.83M30.94M49.83M39.36M81.67M30.53M
Total Debt98.10M101.33M58.79M287.00K425.88K316.33K
Total Liabilities178.53M153.63M107.92M26.50M21.26M10.15M
Stockholders Equity387.42M246.48M220.72M125.72M132.95M61.03M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-56.95M-101.61M-106.25M-33.67M-2.74M-2.66M
Operating Cash Flow12.02M-8.62M21.19M9.65M17.54M1.28M
Investing Cash Flow-73.11M-94.01M-145.44M-48.46M-23.59M-6.48M
Financing Cash Flow90.81M88.48M133.35M440.60K57.91M18.29M

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.42
Price Trends
50DMA
16.14
Positive
100DMA
15.01
Positive
200DMA
13.37
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
1.14
Negative
RSI
68.07
Neutral
STOCH
82.61
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.42 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.79, above the 50-day MA of 16.14, and above the 200-day MA of 13.37, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 68.07 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 82.61 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
76
Outperform
$4.04B12.0815.63%7.61%915.74%
73
Outperform
$2.51B71.093.54%0.30%37.50%-60.92%
66
Neutral
C$2.57B1,077.380.71%241.04%-80.07%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
57
Neutral
73.65%
48
Neutral
$6.45B197.0311.03%
42
Neutral
C$448.51M-17.81-26.19%-5.25%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
20.33
7.78
61.99%
TSE:FVI
Fortuna Mining Corp
13.48
6.76
100.60%
TSE:MAG
MAG Silver
34.38
13.68
66.09%
TSE:SVM
Silvercorp Metals
11.77
7.43
171.26%
TSE:DV
Dolly Varden Silver
6.35
2.35
58.75%
TSE:DSV
Discovery Silver
8.20
7.44
978.95%

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Record Mineral Intercept and New High-Grade Structure at Boumadine
Positive
Nov 26, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced its most significant mineralized intercept to date at the Boumadine project in Morocco, highlighting a record metal factor and the discovery of a new high-grade parallel structure. These findings underscore the potential for substantial resource growth and the project’s world-class scale, with the company planning to expand its drilling operations to further explore these promising results.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Launches Production from Legacy Boumadine Stockpile
Positive
Nov 19, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has initiated commercial production from a historical stockpile of precious metal-rich pyrite concentrate at its Boumadine mining license in Morocco. This initiative aims to reduce the environmental impact of past operations while generating positive cash flow for the Boumadine project. The company has entered an offtake agreement for the stockpile, with plans to produce and ship an estimated 2.5 million silver-equivalent ounces over the next 20 to 24 months. The project capitalizes on favorable market conditions and supports environmental remediation efforts, marking a strategic step in Aya’s operations.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Q3 Revenue and Production
Positive
Nov 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported record financial and operational results for Q3-2025, driven by significant increases in silver production and sales. The company achieved record revenue of $54.3 million and net income of $12.4 million, supported by the ramp-up of the Zgounder plant and favorable silver prices. The successful ramp-up at Zgounder, coupled with positive economic assessments for the Boumadine project, positions Aya for long-term growth and value creation for shareholders.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising Boumadine Project Assessment
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced the results of its 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Boumadine Project in Morocco, highlighting a highly attractive and capital-efficient mining project. The assessment reveals robust economics with a post-tax NPV of $1.5 billion at base case prices, increasing to $3.0 billion at spot prices, and a rapid payback period. The project is characterized by low initial capital costs and competitive all-in sustaining costs, positioning it as one of the most attractive undeveloped precious metal projects globally. With an existing mining license and ongoing development, the project is set to significantly enhance Aya’s market positioning and stakeholder value.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils Promising Boumadine Project PEA Results
Positive
Nov 4, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced the results of its 2025 Preliminary Economic Assessment for the Boumadine Project in Morocco, highlighting a highly attractive and capital-efficient mining operation. The project demonstrates robust economics with a post-tax NPV of $1.5 billion at base case prices and $3.0 billion at spot prices, alongside a rapid payback period and competitive all-in sustaining costs. The Boumadine Project is positioned as one of the most appealing undeveloped precious metal projects globally, with an existing mining license and ongoing development efforts to unlock further potential.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver to Release Boumadine PEA Results and Host Webinar
Neutral
Oct 29, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced it will release the Boumadine Preliminary Economic Assessment results on November 4, 2025, followed by a webinar for analysts, shareholders, and investors. This announcement is significant for the company as it could impact its operations and industry positioning, providing insights into its exploration activities and potential growth in the Moroccan mining sector.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Achieves Record Silver Production in Q3 2025
Positive
Oct 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced a record quarterly production of 1.35 million ounces of silver at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, marking a 29% increase from the previous quarter. The company achieved this through operational improvements, including higher throughput, improved grades, and optimized recovery processes. The strong performance underscores Aya’s operational discipline and positions the company for continued success into 2026, with expectations of further improvements in the coming quarters.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Rejects Misleading Short-Seller Allegations
Neutral
Sep 25, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has strongly refuted claims made in a short-seller report, asserting that the allegations are misleading and inaccurate. The company highlights the reliability of its resource model, supported by extensive drilling and independent verification, and emphasizes its strong financial position. Aya is committed to transparency and operational integrity, with plans to release an updated technical report for the Zgounder mine and a preliminary economic assessment for the Boumadine project by year-end. The company remains focused on long-term value creation for shareholders and is prepared to address any false information that may harm its interests.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils New High-Grade Gold Discovery at Asirem
Positive
Sep 15, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced the discovery of a new high-grade gold zone at Asirem, west of the Boumadine Main Trend in Morocco, marking it as a promising target. The company has also reported high-grade drill results from the Boumadine Main Trend and Tizi Zone, and expanded its operations by acquiring two new mining licenses. These developments highlight Aya’s potential for significant growth in the Moroccan mining sector, reinforcing its position as a key player in the region’s emerging precious metals market.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Unveils New Mineralized Zone at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has announced the discovery of a new mineralized zone north of its current open-pit at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, along with high-grade silver results from its ongoing drilling program. This discovery has the potential to expand near-mine resources and enhance the company’s resource model, with further drilling planned to explore the mineralization at depth. The announcement underscores Aya’s strategic efforts to bolster its operational capabilities and strengthen its position in the silver mining industry, potentially benefiting stakeholders through increased resource estimates and future production potential.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025