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Aya Gold & Silver (TSE:AYA)
TSX:AYA

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) AI Stock Analysis

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Aya Gold & Silver

(TSX:AYA)

50Neutral
Aya Gold & Silver's stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, such as declining profitability and increasing debt. Promising corporate events and expansion plans provide some optimism, but negative market momentum and unattractive valuation impact the stock's overall appeal.
Positive Factors
Mine Expansion
The ongoing expansion of Aya's Zgounder mine is anticipated to significantly boost silver production starting in 2025.
Mining Rates
Mining rates displayed strong improvement increasing 39%.
Plant Efficiency
In January, Zgounder displayed strong improvements with silver production of 384koz as the plant is now operating above nameplate capacity.
Negative Factors
Production Costs
Q4 production costs were higher than estimated, with adjusted cash costs exceeding the previous estimate.
Revenue
Q4 revenue of $9M was below the estimate of $15M, driven by lower silver sales.
Silver Recoveries
Silver recoveries declined to 83% from 87% due to the shutdown and processing oxidized ore.

Aya Gold & Silver (AYA) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)

Aya Gold & Silver Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionAya Gold & Silver Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, evaluation, and development of precious metal properties in Morocco. The company primarily explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, tungsten, molybdenum, uranium, and copper deposits. Its flagship project is the Zgounder property located approximately 265 kms east of Agadir in the Proterozoic Siroua Massif of the Anti-Atlas Range, Morocco. Aya Gold & Silver Inc. was incorporated in 2007 and is based in Montreal, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyAya Gold & Silver primarily generates revenue through the extraction, processing, and sale of precious metals, with a focus on silver and gold. The company's revenue model is centered around its mining operations, where it extracts ore, processes it to separate and purify the metals, and then sells the refined metals at market prices. Key revenue streams include the sale of silver and gold produced at its mining sites. The company's earnings are influenced by global precious metal prices, which can fluctuate based on market demand, geopolitical factors, and economic conditions. Additionally, Aya Gold & Silver may engage in strategic partnerships and joint ventures to enhance its exploration capabilities and expand its resource base, contributing to its overall revenue growth.

Aya Gold & Silver Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Aya Gold & Silver shows financial resilience with a strong balance sheet, low leverage, and improved net profitability. However, challenges persist with declining profit margins, operational inefficiencies, and negative cash flow ratios, indicating concerns in revenue growth and cash flow management.
Income Statement
65
Positive
Aya Gold & Silver showed a mixed performance in its TTM income statement. The gross profit margin decreased to 29.18% from 36.89% in the previous year, indicating a decline in cost efficiency. The net profit margin improved significantly to 19.16%, driven by higher net income despite a decrease in revenue. The TTM revenue fell by 4.67% compared to the previous year, reflecting challenges in maintaining sales growth. The negative EBIT margin of -7.05% suggests operational inefficiencies, though the EBITDA margin remains positive at 14.56%, indicating the company still benefits from non-operating income or adjustments.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet remains robust with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.35, reflecting strong equity backing relative to debt. The return on equity improved significantly to 2.78%, albeit still low, showing better returns for shareholders. The equity ratio at 64.64% indicates a solid capital structure with a high proportion of assets financed by equity, suggesting stability and lower financial risk.
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
The cash flow statement reveals challenges, with a significant decline in free cash flow growth, indicating increased capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow issues from core operations. The free cash flow to net income ratio is also negative, suggesting that operational profits are not translating into free cash flow, potentially impacting future investments.
Breakdown
Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020Dec 2019
Income StatementTotal Revenue
42.85M38.24M34.30M13.82M6.08M
Gross Profit
15.81M10.28M16.01M4.04M1.31M
EBIT
4.93M2.65M5.88M-1.88M739.31K
EBITDA
14.29M7.93M8.54M330.67K2.05M
Net Income Common Stockholders
5.50M1.40M1.27M-1.78M-576.51K
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
49.83M39.36M81.67M30.53M16.62M
Total Assets
333.06M156.80M161.26M72.08M48.16M
Total Debt
58.79M287.00K425.88K316.33K77.97K
Net Debt
8.96M-39.07M-81.24M-30.22M-16.54M
Total Liabilities
107.92M26.50M21.26M10.15M7.28M
Stockholders Equity
220.72M125.72M132.95M61.03M40.49M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
-106.25M-33.67M-2.74M-2.66M-2.55M
Operating Cash Flow
21.19M9.65M17.54M1.28M3.57M
Investing Cash Flow
-145.44M-48.46M-23.59M-6.48M-6.13M
Financing Cash Flow
133.35M440.60K57.91M18.29M-602.32K

Aya Gold & Silver Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Neutral
Last Price9.81
Price Trends
50DMA
11.06
Negative
100DMA
11.37
Negative
200DMA
13.46
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.50
Positive
RSI
45.37
Neutral
STOCH
65.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:AYA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 9.81 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 10.20, below the 50-day MA of 11.06, and below the 200-day MA of 13.46, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.50 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.37 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:AYA.

Aya Gold & Silver Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (49)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSAYA
50
Neutral
C$1.28B152.08-9.39%―-7.22%-475.28%
49
Neutral
$1.96B-1.23-21.20%3.72%0.95%-28.96%
TSDV
42
Neutral
C$302.17M―-22.47%――31.39%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:AYA
Aya Gold & Silver
9.79
-4.15
-29.77%
FSM
Fortuna Silver Mines
6.16
1.35
28.07%
MAG
MAG Silver
15.23
2.77
22.23%
SVM
Silvercorp Metals
3.74
0.40
11.98%
TSE:DV
Dolly Varden Silver
3.72
-0.24
-6.06%
DSVSF
Discovery Silver
2.05
1.39
210.61%

Aya Gold & Silver Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 28, 2025
(Q4-2024)
|
% Change Since: -23.48%|
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The call presented a mix of positive developments and challenges. The successful completion of the Zgounder expansion and projected production increase for 2025 are significant achievements. However, the decrease in production and revenue, lower ore grades, and a major write-off are concerning. The company's strong cash position and exploration success provide a positive outlook, but operational challenges and increased costs temper the overall sentiment.
Q4-2024 Updates
Positive Updates
Zgounder Expansion Completion
The Zgounder expansion plant was completed on budget, a rare achievement in the industry, and the new mill reached commercial production at the end of 2024.
Increased Production Capacity
Aya plans to increase silver production from 1.6 million ounces in 2024 to between 5 million and 5.3 million ounces in 2025.
Exploration Success at Boumadine
Over 107,000 meters drilled, extending the main mineralization trend to 5.4 kilometers, with a new mineral resource estimate of 452 million ounces of silver.
Strong Financial Position
Ending 2024 with $49 million in cash and restricted cash, with no capital repayment on the $100 million EBRD debt in 2025.
ESG Advancements
Completion of an electrical line powered by renewable energy, and progress on ESG priorities.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Silver Production and Revenue
Silver production decreased by 16% in 2024 compared to 2023, with a revenue decrease to $39.1 million from $42 million.
Lower Ore Grade and Mill Recovery
Average ore grade decreased from 250 grams per ton in 2023 to 171 grams per ton in 2024, with mill recovery dropping from 86-87% to 84%.
Significant Write-Off
A $27 million write-off related to the Mauritania asset, Tijirit project, impacting financial results for 2024.
Increased Cash Costs
Adjusted cash cost per silver ounce increased to $19 in 2024 from $12 in 2023, attributed to ramp-up and overstaffing.
Company Guidance
During Aya Gold and Silver's Q4 and full-year 2024 earnings call, Benoit La Salle, the President and CEO, highlighted the completion of the Zgounder expansion plant on budget. The company produced 1.6 million ounces of silver for the year, ending with $49 million in cash and restricted cash. The exploration budget for 2025 is set between $25 million and $30 million, focusing on Zgounder and Boumadine. The company aims to ramp up production to between 5 million and 5.3 million ounces of silver in 2025. The average silver cash cost is projected to range between $15 and $18 per ounce, with recovery rates expected to average between 84% and 88%. The company also announced a significant $27 million write-off related to the Tijirit project in Mauritania.

Aya Gold & Silver Corporate Events

Financial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver to Announce Q1 2025 Results
Neutral
May 2, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 results on May 13, 2025, followed by a conference call to discuss financial and operational outcomes. This announcement highlights Aya’s commitment to transparency and engagement with stakeholders, reinforcing its position as a key player in the silver mining industry.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AYA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AYA is a Neutral.

Aya Gold & Silver’s stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, such as declining profitability and increasing debt. Promising corporate events and expansion plans provide some optimism, but negative market momentum and unattractive valuation impact the stock’s overall appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AYA stock, click here.

Private Placements and FinancingM&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Completes Strategic Transaction with Mx2 Mining
Positive
Apr 16, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has completed a strategic transaction with Mx2 Mining, transferring rights to the Amizmiz Gold Project in Morocco. Mx2 now holds a 100% interest in the project, supported by a C$16 million private placement, with Aya owning 42.3% of Mx2. This partnership aims to unlock the potential of the Amizmiz project, leveraging Mx2’s exploration capabilities and Aya’s strategic interests, enhancing their operational momentum in Morocco. The transaction is expected to foster collaboration and streamline logistics, with Mx2’s new headquarters in Marrakech facilitating exploration activities across Morocco and North Africa.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AYA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AYA is a Neutral.

Aya Gold & Silver’s overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, including declining profitability and increasing debt. Despite promising corporate events and expansion plans, the negative market momentum and unattractive valuation weigh heavily on the stock’s overall appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AYA stock, click here.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Strengthens Board with New Appointment
Positive
Apr 14, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. has appointed John Burzynski as an Independent Director to its Board, following the departure of Nikolaos Sofronis due to health reasons. Burzynski brings extensive mining experience, having been a key figure in the development of the Canadian Malartic Mine and leading Osisko Mining Inc. through significant growth. His expertise is expected to enhance Aya’s strategy to become a leading silver producer, while the company expresses gratitude for Sofronis’s contributions.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AYA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AYA is a Neutral.

Aya Gold & Silver’s overall score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, including declining profitability and increasing debt. Despite promising corporate events and expansion plans, the negative market momentum and unattractive valuation weigh heavily on the stock’s overall appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AYA stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Record Silver Production in Q1-2025
Positive
Apr 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver announced a record production of 1.07 million ounces of silver in Q1-2025 at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco, marking a 192% increase from the previous year. This significant growth was achieved despite planned shutdowns and seasonal challenges, with the company optimizing plant operations and transitioning to producing silver doré, which increases revenue per ounce by approximately 15%. The results position Aya for a strong second half of 2025, reflecting the strength of its team and operational execution.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AYA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AYA is a Neutral.

Aya Gold & Silver’s overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, including declining profitability and increasing debt. Despite promising corporate events and expansion plans, the negative market momentum and unattractive valuation weigh heavily on the stock’s overall appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AYA stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Extends Tizi Zone and Identifies New Targets at Boumadine
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced significant high-grade drill results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Tizi Zone to 2.2 kilometers and identifying new regional targets. These results confirm the continuity of mineralization along the Boumadine Main Trend and highlight the project’s potential for resource growth, which could enhance Aya’s position in the mining industry and benefit stakeholders through increased exploration opportunities.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AYA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AYA is a Neutral.

Aya Gold & Silver’s overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, including declining profitability and increasing debt. Despite promising corporate events and expansion plans, the negative market momentum and unattractive valuation weigh heavily on the stock’s overall appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AYA stock, click here.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Extends Boumadine Zone and Identifies New Targets
Positive
Apr 8, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has announced significant high-grade drill results from its Boumadine project in Morocco, extending the Tizi mineralized zone by 200 meters and identifying new regional targets. These results confirm the continuity of the Boumadine Main Trend, highlighting the project’s strong resource growth potential and reinforcing its district-scale potential with over 20 kilometers of potential strike for future exploration.

Spark’s Take on TSE:AYA Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:AYA is a Neutral.

Aya Gold & Silver’s overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, including declining profitability and increasing debt. Despite promising corporate events and expansion plans, the negative market momentum and unattractive valuation weigh heavily on the stock’s overall appeal.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:AYA stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Aya Gold & Silver Releases Updated Technical Report for Boumadine Project
Positive
Mar 31, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver has filed a technical report for the Boumadine Polymetallic Project in Morocco, providing an updated mineral resource estimate. This filing, prepared by qualified experts, underscores Aya’s commitment to transparency and could enhance its operational strategy, potentially impacting its market position and stakeholder interests positively.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Announces 2024 Results and 2025 Outlook
Neutral
Mar 28, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported a decrease in silver production for 2024, aligning with revised guidance, while revenues from silver sales also saw a decline. Despite increased cash costs due to expansion efforts, the company maintained a robust financial position with significant cash reserves. The completion of the Zgounder Mine expansion marked a pivotal achievement, allowing for commercial production and setting the stage for future growth. The Boumadine exploration program expanded significantly, indicating potential for further resource development. The company is focused on optimizing operations and maximizing profitability as it enters 2025.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Significant High-Grade Silver Discoveries at Zgounder Mine
Positive
Mar 26, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced significant high-grade silver drill results from its exploration program at the Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. These results, which include high-grade intercepts both at depth and near the open-pit, suggest the potential for resource expansion and continuity of mineralization. The findings reinforce the company’s confidence in extending its open-pit operations and enhancing its resource potential, which could positively impact its industry positioning and stakeholder interests.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Increased Daily Silver Production in February 2025
Positive
Mar 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver reported a silver production of 357,333 ounces in February 2025 at its Zgounder Silver Mine in Morocco. Despite a planned shutdown, the company achieved an increase in daily silver production and mine production, with a 37% rise in mine output compared to January. The improvements in production metrics reflect enhanced operational efficiency and sustained processing capacity.

Business Operations and Strategy
Aya Gold & Silver Boosts Boumadine Resource Estimate
Positive
Feb 24, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. announced a significant increase in the mineral resource estimate at its Boumadine Project in Morocco. The updated estimate shows a 120% increase in indicated resources and a 19% increase in inferred resources, highlighting the company’s successful expansion efforts. This development enhances Aya’s position in the mining industry, with potential for further expansion and exploration in the region.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Aya Gold & Silver Reports Notable Increase in Silver Production in Early 2025
Positive
Feb 11, 2025

Aya Gold & Silver Inc. reported a significant increase in its silver production, achieving 491,310 ounces in Q4 2024 and 383,515 ounces in January 2025 at its Zgounder Silver Mine. This growth reflects a 77% increase in January over December 2024, highlighting the company’s successful operational ramp-up and increased efficiency, with improvements in silver recovery rates and mill availability. These results signify Aya’s strengthened operational capabilities and potential positive implications for stakeholders as the company continues to enhance production metrics and mine output.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.