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Oncolytics Biotech (TSE:ONC)
TSX:ONC

Oncolytics Biotech (ONC) AI Stock Analysis

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Oncolytics Biotech

(TSX:ONC)

Rating:43Neutral
Price Target:
Oncolytics Biotech faces significant financial challenges with persistent operational losses and reliance on external funding. Although technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, clinical advancements in cancer treatments provide some optimism. The valuation reflects the speculative nature of biotech investments, with no revenue and negative P/E. Recent earnings call and corporate events offer potential upside through strategic developments but are overshadowed by leadership transitions and market value concerns. Overall, the stock remains speculative with potential upside contingent on successful clinical outcomes.
Positive Factors
Clinical Development
Pelareorep's clinical momentum across multiple tumor types reinforces the view that Oncolytics is approaching a critical inflection point.
Earnings Potential
The stock is believed to be undervalued at current levels with multiple catalysts ahead.
Regulatory Progress
Positive Phase 2 data in both settings, coupled with regulatory alignment, position pelareorep to advance to potential registration-enabling trials in 2025, supporting the view that Oncolytics is nearing a significant inflection point.
Negative Factors
Capital Needs
Oncolytics Biotech is expected to need to raise capital soon to fund its programs, which may lead to potential dilution and has resulted in the lowering of the 12-month price target.
Funding Needs
The estimated cash burn and current cash reserves indicate a potential need for additional funding, which could impact financial stability.
Leadership Search
Oncolytics is continuing to actively search for a Chief Executive Officer, as well as exploring potential BD opportunities.

Oncolytics Biotech (ONC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Oncolytics Biotech Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOncolytics Biotech Inc., a development-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on the discovery and development of pharmaceutical products for the treatment of cancer. Its lead product is pelareorep, an intravenously delivered immunotherapeutic agent for the treatment of solid tumors and hematological malignancies. Oncolytics Biotech Inc. has a co-development agreement with Merck KGaA and Pfizer Inc. to co-develop pelareorep in combination with paclitaxel and avelumab, a human anti-PD-L1 antibody for the treatment of hormone receptor-positive/human epidermal growth factor 2-negative metastatic breast cancer; and PrECOG LLC. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyOncolytics Biotech Inc. generates revenue through a combination of strategic partnerships, research collaborations, and potential licensing agreements. The company often partners with pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies to advance the development of its lead product candidate, pelareorep, in combination with other cancer therapies. These collaborations may involve milestone payments and royalties based on the successful development and commercialization of joint therapies. Additionally, Oncolytics may enter into licensing agreements that allow other companies to use its proprietary technology, further contributing to its revenue streams.

Oncolytics Biotech Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 14, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 46.48%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant progress in clinical trials, especially in breast and pancreatic cancers, and a solid financial position with new capital access. However, the ongoing search for a new CEO and a decrease in R&D spending present challenges. The overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic with key strategic advancements underway.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Progress in Breast Cancer Trials
Two randomized Phase 2 studies showed that pelareorep-based combination therapy substantially outperformed standard care in HR-positive/HER2-negative metastatic breast cancer, with a near doubling of median progression-free survival and two-year survival rate.
Pancreatic Cancer Trial Enrollment
Enrollment for the GOBLET Cohort 5 pancreatic cancer study, funded by a $5 million PanCAN grant, is ongoing with more than half of the Stage 1 patients enrolled.
Financial Runway and Share Purchase Agreement
The company reported $15.3 million in cash and a $20 million share purchase agreement with Alumni Capital, providing financial runway through key milestones and the third quarter of 2025.
Anal Carcinoma Trial Expansion
The GOBLET Cohort 4, investigating pelareorep and atezolizumab in relapsed anal carcinoma, showed a 33% objective response rate, leading to an expansion for Stage 2 enrollment.
Negative Updates
Ongoing CEO Search
The company is still in the process of searching for a new CEO to provide leadership and strategic decision-making.
Decrease in R&D Expenses
Research and development expenses decreased from $5.7 million in Q1 2024 to $4.1 million in Q1 2025 due to reduced manufacturing and clinical trial costs, although partially offset by increased personnel-related expenses.
Net Loss for the Quarter
The company reported a net loss of $6.7 million for the quarter, slightly lower than the $6.9 million loss in Q1 2024.
Company Guidance
During the recent Oncolytics Biotech conference call, several key metrics and strategic updates were shared. The company reported a cash and cash equivalents position of $15.3 million as of March 31, 2025, with a net cash usage of $6.5 million for operating activities in the quarter. Research and development expenses were $4.1 million, a decrease from $5.7 million in the same quarter of the previous year, attributed to lower manufacturing and clinical trial costs. The net loss for the quarter was $6.7 million, equivalent to $0.08 per share. Oncolytics also announced a $20 million share purchase agreement with Alumni Capital, providing additional financial flexibility. Clinically, the company highlighted ongoing trials of pelareorep, particularly in breast and pancreatic cancer, with promising data shared at various medical conferences. The GOBLET Cohort 5 study, supported by a $5 million PanCAN grant, is advancing with more than half of the necessary participants enrolled. The company is also actively advancing its CEO search and exploring multiple business development opportunities.

Oncolytics Biotech Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Oncolytics Biotech's financial health is challenged by a lack of revenue, substantial operational losses, and reliance on external financing. The persistent negative cash flows and declining equity raise concerns about sustainability and investor confidence. Strategic shifts may be necessary to improve financial outcomes.
Income Statement
30
Negative
Oncolytics Biotech has consistently reported zero revenue, reflecting the challenges of monetization in biotechnology. The company experiences persistent net and gross losses, with EBIT and EBITDA margins heavily negative, indicating substantial operational expenditures without offsetting income. Revenue growth is non-existent, which hinders overall financial health.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The balance sheet reveals significant financial strain, with a declining stockholders' equity and high liabilities relative to assets. The debt-to-equity ratio is relatively manageable due to low absolute debt levels. However, the equity ratio has deteriorated, reflecting increased financial leverage and potential solvency risks.
Cash Flow
35
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows negative free cash flow, indicating a reliance on external financing, which could pose risks as investor sentiment fluctuates. Operating cash flow is consistently negative, underscoring the need for revenue generation. The cash flow to net income ratios are unfavorable due to persistent losses.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue0.000.000.000.000.00
Gross Profit0.00-403.00K-392.00K-452.06K-446.19K
EBITDA-34.88M-33.71M-26.83M-25.80M-25.37M
Net Income-31.71M-27.75M-24.84M-26.30M-19.55M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets20.19M38.82M37.33M45.88M34.35M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments15.94M34.91M32.14M41.26M31.22M
Total Debt1.06M423.00K373.00K654.75K402.06K
Total Liabilities14.20M11.26M10.83M9.78M9.59M
Stockholders Equity5.98M27.56M26.50M36.10M24.75M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-27.20M-28.46M-23.41M-22.72M-22.10M
Operating Cash Flow-26.97M-28.45M-23.36M-22.43M-22.07M
Investing Cash Flow-239.00K20.22M-20.40M-285.95K-29.30K
Financing Cash Flow6.64M31.99M12.21M33.02M39.77M

Oncolytics Biotech Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price1.04
Price Trends
50DMA
0.72
Positive
100DMA
0.82
Positive
200DMA
1.09
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Negative
RSI
70.62
Negative
STOCH
70.75
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:ONC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.04 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.76, above the 50-day MA of 0.72, and below the 200-day MA of 1.09, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 70.62 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 70.75 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:ONC.

Oncolytics Biotech Risk Analysis

Oncolytics Biotech disclosed 65 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Oncolytics Biotech reported the most risks in the "Tech & Innovation" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks

Oncolytics Biotech Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (51)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSCOV
74
Outperform
C$65.53M16.9914.51%28.97%
53
Neutral
C$57.02M-97.22%-67.03%
51
Neutral
$7.41B0.36-61.88%2.33%17.09%1.64%
TSBCT
43
Neutral
C$27.65M-608.22%56.78%
TSONC
43
Neutral
$92.38M-211.24%0.10%
TSSVA
33
Underperform
C$54.20M248.46%32.71%
TSHBP
33
Underperform
C$70.45M685.26%-50.29%
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:ONC
Oncolytics Biotech
1.04
-0.33
-24.09%
TSE:MDNA
Medicenna Therapeutics Corp
0.83
-1.08
-56.54%
TSE:BCT
BriaCell Therapeutics
4.08
-16.32
-80.00%
TSE:COV
Covalon Technologies
2.39
0.29
13.81%
TSE:HBP
Helix BioPharma
0.95
-0.27
-22.13%
TSE:SVA
Sernova
0.16
-0.18
-52.94%

Oncolytics Biotech Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncolytics Biotech to Present Promising Pancreatic Cancer Data at ASCO 2025
Positive
Apr 24, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech announced it will present new data at the 2025 ASCO Annual Meeting, showcasing pelareorep’s effectiveness in activating immune responses in pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC), a challenging cancer with limited treatment options. The data supports the potential of pelareorep combination therapies to improve outcomes for patients with PDAC, reinforcing Oncolytics’ position in the oncology field and potentially impacting treatment approaches for this difficult-to-treat cancer.

Spark’s Take on TSE:ONC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:ONC is a Neutral.

Oncolytics Biotech faces significant financial challenges, with persistent operational losses and a reliance on external financing. Despite technical indicators suggesting bearish momentum, clinical advancements in cancer treatments provide some optimism. The valuation is reflective of speculative biotech investments, with negative P/E and no dividend. Recent earnings call and corporate events offer potential upside through strategic developments but are overshadowed by leadership transitions and market value concerns. Overall, the stock remains speculative with potential upside contingent on successful clinical outcomes.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:ONC stock, click here.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncolytics Biotech Secures $20 Million Funding for Pelareorep Development
Positive
Apr 10, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. has entered into a share purchase agreement with Alumni Capital LP to secure up to $20 million in funding for the continued development of pelareorep. This strategic move allows Oncolytics to advance its clinical milestones while maintaining shareholder value, with the flexibility to control the timing and amount of equity sales.

Spark’s Take on TSE:ONC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:ONC is a Neutral.

Oncolytics Biotech faces financial challenges with consistent operational losses and reliance on external financing. While technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, clinical advancements in cancer treatments provide some optimism. The search for a new CEO and regulatory uncertainties pose additional risks. Overall, the stock is speculative with potential upside in successful clinical trials.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:ONC stock, click here.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncolytics Biotech’s Pelareorep Gains Attention at Key Oncology Event
Positive
Apr 10, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech’s pelareorep was highlighted at an H.C. Wainwright event by key opinion leaders as a promising immunotherapy for breast and pancreatic cancers. The discussions emphasized pelareorep’s potential to improve treatment outcomes by activating the immune system, offering new hope for cancers resistant to current treatments. This recognition underscores Oncolytics’ strategic positioning in the oncology market, potentially enhancing its reputation and stakeholder interest as it progresses towards critical clinical milestones.

Spark’s Take on TSE:ONC Stock

According to Spark, TipRanks’ AI Analyst, TSE:ONC is a Neutral.

Oncolytics Biotech faces financial challenges with consistent operational losses and reliance on external financing. While technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, clinical advancements in cancer treatments provide some optimism. The search for a new CEO and regulatory uncertainties pose additional risks. Overall, the stock is speculative with potential upside in successful clinical trials.

To see Spark’s full report on TSE:ONC stock, click here.

Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Oncolytics Biotech Advances Cancer Trials, Strengthening 2025 Pipeline
Positive
Feb 19, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech has made significant progress in its pancreatic and anal cancer trials, strengthening its pipeline for 2025. The company received regulatory clearance from Germany’s Paul-Ehrlich-Institute to continue enrolling patients in its pancreatic cancer study, indicating positive safety reviews. Additionally, recent clinical data presented at the 2025 ASCO Gastrointestinal Cancers Symposium demonstrated pelareorep’s potential efficacy and safety in treating pancreatic and anal cancers. These developments de-risk pelareorep’s progression and could lead to larger clinical trials, potentially enhancing treatment options and creating shareholder value.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncolytics Biotech Advances Cancer Treatment Pipeline with Key 2025 Developments
Positive
Feb 18, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech has announced key advancements in its pipeline for 2025, highlighting significant progress with its immunotherapy agent, pelareorep, in treating pancreatic and anal cancers, in addition to metastatic breast cancer. Recent regulatory and clinical developments, including safety clearance from Germany’s Paul-Ehrlich-Institute to advance a pancreatic cancer study, and promising data presented at the ASCO GI 2025 Symposium, underscore pelareorep’s potential in diverse cancer treatments. These milestones are expected to de-risk pelareorep’s development, potentially paving the way for larger clinical trials and advancing Oncolytics’ position in the oncology space, providing new treatment options for patients and creating value for shareholders.

Delistings and Listing ChangesRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Oncolytics Biotech Receives Nasdaq Notification for Bid Price Deficiency
Negative
Feb 14, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. has received a notification from Nasdaq regarding non-compliance with the minimum bid price requirement, as its stock has traded below $1.00 for 30 consecutive business days. The company has until August 12, 2025, to regain compliance, during which its shares will continue to trade on Nasdaq. If Oncolytics fails to meet the requirement by then, it may qualify for an additional compliance period. The notification does not immediately affect the company’s operations or stock listing, but it highlights the need to address market value concerns, potentially impacting investor confidence.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Oncolytics Biotech Announces Leadership Change Amid CEO’s Health Concerns
Negative
Feb 8, 2025

Oncolytics Biotech Inc. announced that Matt Coffey, Ph.D., will not return to his role as CEO after a medical leave of absence due to ongoing health concerns. Dr. Coffey’s decision was made with the best interests of his family and the company in mind. He has played a pivotal role in the development of pelareorep, an innovative therapeutic agent for cancer treatment, from its pre-clinical stages to Phase 2 studies. Wayne Pisano, the Chair of Oncolytics’ Board of Directors, will serve as interim CEO while the company searches for a new CEO to continue advancing Coffey’s vision. This leadership transition may impact Oncolytics’ strategic direction as it seeks to further its position in the oncology immunotherapy sector.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: May 02, 2025