Sernova (SVA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$52.19M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 125.66K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): -0.17
• Revenue Growth: N/A
• EPS Growth: 54.38%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 17
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 45
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): >-0.01
• Shares Outstanding: 336,698,550
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 126,270
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 125,661
• PEG Ratio: 0.06
• Price to Book (P/B): -1.96
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.51
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: N/A
• Price Target Upside: N/A
• Rating Consensus: N/A
• Number of Analyst Covering: 0
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 44 Neutral
• Price Target: C$0.15 ▲(0.00% Upside)

The score is held back primarily by weak financial fundamentals (pre-revenue losses, negative equity, higher debt, and ongoing funding needs). Technicals are also bearish with the price below key moving averages, partially offset by oversold signals. Corporate events provide a modest uplift due to financing and debt-to-equity conversion, while valuation remains constrained by ongoing losses and no dividend.

Positive Factors

Proprietary Cell Pouch System

Sernova’s Cell Pouch System is a durable, platform-level asset that targets chronic diseases by enabling long-term engraftment of therapeutic cells. A platform device can support multiple cell therapies, creating sustainable R&D optionality and potential for repeated clinical programs across indications.

Improving loss and cash burn trajectory

Meaningful year-over-year reduction in net loss demonstrates disciplined cost control and a lower cash runway burden. If operational spending remains calibrated, this trend improves the company’s ability to sustain clinical programs longer between financings and reduces near-term dilution risk.

Recent financing and debt-to-equity conversion

Converting debt to equity and securing financings materially eases immediate liquidity pressure and reduces scheduled cash interest/repayments. This structural change in capital mix supports continued clinical development without imminent refinancing, improving operational continuity over the coming months.

Negative Factors

Deteriorated balance sheet

Sustained negative equity signals accumulated losses that weaken solvency and lender/investor confidence. Persistent negative net worth constrains financing options and increases the likelihood of dilutive capital raises or unfavorable credit terms, undermining long-term financial resilience.

Rising debt load

A sharp increase in leverage raises refinancing and liquidity risk, especially for a pre-revenue biotech. Higher debt requires either cash service capacity or renegotiation; with limited assets and negative equity, servicing this debt could divert resources from R&D or force dilutive financing.

Pre-revenue with ongoing cash burn

Without product revenue, continued reliance on external capital is structural. Although burn improved, free cash flow remains negative, meaning the firm must secure further funding to complete clinical milestones. This dependence heightens dilution and execution risk over the medium term.

Sernova Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Sernova Corp. operates as a clinical-stage regenerative medicine therapeutics company in Canada. The company focuses on the development and commercialization of regenerative medicine therapeutics, including its proprietary Cell Pouch and associated technologies consisting of therapeutic cells and local cellular immune protection. Its Cell Pouch is a medical device designed to create a vascularized tissue environment for the transplantation and engraftment of therapeutic cells, which then release proteins and/or hormones for the long-term treatment of various serious chronic diseases, such as diabetes, hemophilia, and thyroid disease. Sernova Corp. has a research collaboration with AgeX Therapeutics, Inc. to generate immune-protected therapeutic cells; and a research agreement with the University of Miami to advance the development of Cell Pouch cell therapy platform. The company was incorporated in 1998 and is headquartered in London, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Sernova primarily generates revenue through the development and potential commercialization of its Cell Pouch System and associated therapeutic cells. The company could earn income through licensing agreements, partnerships, and collaborations with other biotech or pharmaceutical companies interested in integrating Sernova's technology into their treatment pipelines. Additionally, Sernova may receive milestone payments and royalties from these partners as their therapeutics progress through clinical trials and toward market approval. The company may also benefit from research grants and government funding to support its innovation and development efforts.

Sernova Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Pre-revenue with continuing losses, despite meaningful improvement in net loss and operating cash burn. Balance-sheet risk is elevated due to negative equity, sharply higher debt in 2025, and very low reported assets, implying ongoing financing/dilution risk.

Income Statement

The company reports no revenue across the provided annual periods, consistent with a development-stage biotechnology profile, and losses remain sizable. Net losses improved materially from 2023 (-$39.0M) to 2024 (-$32.2M) and further to 2025 (-$15.7M), indicating meaningful cost control and/or reduced spending, but profitability is still far from break-even. Gross profit is negative in most years, reinforcing the lack of commercial scale and ongoing operating burn.

Balance Sheet

Balance sheet strength has deteriorated notably: shareholders’ equity moved from positive in 2023 ($12.5M) to negative in 2024 (-$13.0M) and further to negative in 2025 (-$25.1M), which is a key financial risk signal. Debt increased sharply in 2025 (to ~$17.3M from ~$0.6M in 2024), while total assets fell to ~$0.8M, implying a much tighter capital position. While leverage ratios become difficult to interpret with negative equity, the combination of rising debt and negative equity increases refinancing and dilution risk.

Cash Flow

Cash burn remains heavy, but the trajectory improved: operating cash outflow decreased from -$30.3M (2023) to -$19.0M (2024) and -$10.9M (2025). Free cash flow is similarly negative and declined in 2025 versus 2024 (about -26% year over year), indicating continued funding needs despite a smaller burn rate. Overall, cash generation is not yet self-sustaining, and ongoing external capital is likely required.

Breakdown	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
Gross Profit	-342.59K	0.00	-445.55K	-440.00K	-267.20K
EBITDA	-14.74M	-31.25M	-40.19M	-24.54M	-6.60M
Net Income	-15.74M	-32.19M	-39.00M	-24.54M	-7.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	764.23K	7.53M	22.11M	52.48M	29.82M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	265.00K	6.01M	19.81M	49.78M	27.87M
Total Debt	17.28M	569.94K	136.12K	275.98K	393.35K
Total Liabilities	25.84M	20.48M	9.59M	4.88M	1.75M
Stockholders Equity	-25.08M	-12.96M	12.51M	47.61M	28.07M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-10.91M	-18.90M	-30.44M	-14.75M	-6.86M
Operating Cash Flow	-10.91M	-18.90M	-30.34M	-14.42M	-6.84M
Investing Cash Flow	24.96K	11.12M	34.78M	-46.34M	-228.78K
Financing Cash Flow	5.14M	5.07M	503.46K	36.66M	31.00M

Sernova Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 0.15
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:SVA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.16, above the 50-day MA of 0.15, and below the 200-day MA of 0.17, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of <0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 58.38 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:SVA.

Sernova Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
COV	53 Neutral	C$45.02M	21.44	7.07%	―	5.29%	-29.02%
Sector *	51 Neutral	$7.86B	-0.30	-43.30%	2.27%	22.53%	-2.21%
MBX	49 Neutral	C$31.23M	-15.19	-8.01%	―	-26.81%	-161.24%
DTC	45 Neutral	C$32.29M	-8.33	―	―	―	72.92%
SVA	44 Neutral	C$52.19M	-3.24	―	―	―	54.38%
MIR	42 Neutral	C$45.61M	-10.34	―	―	-41.70%	-35.42%

Sernova Corporate Events

Sernova Biotherapeutics Advances Diabetes Treatment with New Funding

Sernova Biotherapeutics has successfully closed the first tranche of a private placement, raising CAD $874,600 to advance its clinical program for type 1 diabetes. The funds will support the launch of Cohort C in its ongoing Phase 1/2 clinical trial, which will incorporate the novel immunomodulatory antibody tegoprubart, expected to improve clinical outcomes. This financing, along with anticipated future tranches and a conversion of legacy debt to equity, strengthens Sernova’s financial position as it progresses towards a functional cure for insulin-dependent diabetes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:SVA) stock is a Buy with a C$6.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Sernova stock, see the TSE:SVA Stock Forecast page.