Orla Mining (TSE:OLA)
TSX:OLA
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Orla Mining
(TSX:OLA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$22.00
▼(-2.48% Downside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/14/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins and improved leverage) and a constructive earnings outlook with funded growth projects and shareholder returns. This is partially offset by weaker cash conversion/FCF trend and only mixed technical momentum, despite supportive valuation metrics including a high dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Strong scale-up and healthy margins
A durable step-up in scale with ~31% TTM revenue growth and high gross (~53%) and net (~19.6%) margins indicates sustainable operating leverage and cost efficiency. This supports long-term cash generation, reinvestment capacity and resilience through commodity cycles.
Negative Factors
Weakened cash conversion and volatile FCF
Operating cash flow and free cash flow remain positive but lag reported earnings (OCF~0.77x net income) and FCF declined sharply versus prior year. Persistent cash conversion weakness can constrain funding for capex, debt reduction or higher distributions.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong scale-up and healthy margins
A durable step-up in scale with ~31% TTM revenue growth and high gross (~53%) and net (~19.6%) margins indicates sustainable operating leverage and cost efficiency. This supports long-term cash generation, reinvestment capacity and resilience through commodity cycles.
Read all positive factors
Orla Mining (OLA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$6.35B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)2.10M
Price to Earnings (P/E)26.0
Beta (1Y)2.42
Revenue Growth207.42%
EPS GrowthN/A
CountryCA
Employees354
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.84
Shares Outstanding345,573,800
10 Day Avg. Volume1,803,770
30 Day Avg. Volume2,096,129
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio3.13
Price to Book (P/B)9.27
Price to Sales (P/S)5.64
P/FCF Ratio9.07
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$32.33Price Target Upside43.32% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)1.73
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.72B
Orla Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores for, and develops mineral properties. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area...
How the Company Makes Money
Orla Mining makes money primarily by producing and selling gold from its mining operations. Revenue is generated when mined ore is processed to produce gold (e.g., doré or refined product) and that gold is sold at prevailing market prices, with re...
Orla Mining Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 19, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a strong positive operational and financial picture driven by the Musselwhite acquisition, robust cash generation, strengthened liquidity, initiation of dividends, successful permitting at Camino Rojo and compelling project economics for South Railroad. These highlights outweigh the operational setbacks and higher near-term costs related to the Camino Rojo pit wall event, prepay obligations, contingent payments and deeper mining cost risks at Musselwhite. Management articulated clear plans to address material handling and to proceed with development projects, and the company appears positioned to fund growth while returning capital to shareholders.Positive Updates
Material Increase in Annual Production (Musselwhite Acquisition)
Orla more than doubled annual gold production following the Musselwhite acquisition (>100% increase year-over-year). Musselwhite produced nearly 76,000 ounces of gold in Q4 after mining 371,000 tonnes and processing 361,000 tonnes at a mill grade of 6.77 g/t with 95.65% recovery.
Negative Updates
Camino Rojo Pit Wall Event and Operational Impact
A pit wall event in July 2025 required stabilization activities and additional ramping work through H2, resulting in a higher-than-normal implied strip ratio of 1.52 in Q4 and increased removal of overburden/waste. Q4 oxide production at Camino Rojo was 19,587 ounces, and 1.9 million tonnes of ore (0.47 g/t) were placed on the heap leach pad as operations ramped back up.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Material Increase in Annual Production (Musselwhite Acquisition)
Orla more than doubled annual gold production following the Musselwhite acquisition (>100% increase year-over-year). Musselwhite produced nearly 76,000 ounces of gold in Q4 after mining 371,000 tonnes and processing 361,000 tonnes at a mill grade of 6.77 g/t with 95.65% recovery.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Orla guided 2026 production of 340,000–360,000 ounces at an all‑in sustaining cost of $1,550–$1,750/oz, underpinned by Musselwhite (Q4: mined 371k t, processed 361k t at 6.77 g/t, 95.65% recovery for ~76k oz; six consecutive months ~3,800 tpd rolling average; >12,500 m deep directional and ~32,000 m underground drilling in 2025 with mineralization extending ≥2 km and a ~ $50M drilling program) and growth projects: Camino Rojo’s PEA targets >220,000 oz/year over the first 10 years (sulfide/underground project; EIS approved; 1.9M t placed on pad in Q4 at 0.47 g/t; Q4 oxide production 19,587 oz; exploration decline planned H2‑2026, PFS targeted 2027), and South Railroad’s optimized FS shows ~130,000 oz/year average over the first five years at AISC ≈ $1,485/oz, after‑tax NPV $1.7B and 95% IRR at $4,500/oz, initial capex ≈ $395M, ~18‑month build with ROD targeted mid‑2026 and first gold in 2028 to help drive Orla toward ~500,000 oz/year; quarterly financials included Q4 sales ~93k oz at realized $4,025/oz (ex‑prepay $4,187/oz), Q4 cash costs $1,093/oz and AISC $1,536/oz, net income $79M ($0.23/sh), adjusted $143M ($0.42/sh), operating cash flow $165M, free cash flow $133M, cash $421M and total liquidity $481M.Orla Mining Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.44B | 1.08B | 327.41M | 237.43M | 187.48M | 4.05M |
| Gross Profit | 764.58M | 524.36M | 173.39M | 107.58M | 104.92M | -12.54M |
| EBITDA | 869.32M | 619.73M | 213.48M | 49.37M | 99.47M | -24.08M |
| Net Income | 282.73M | 108.77M | 84.71M | -27.45M | 44.41M | -25.84M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 2.11B | 2.07B | 598.35M | 535.78M | 613.82M | 364.89M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 427.65M | 420.01M | 160.85M | 96.63M | 96.28M | 20.52M |
| Total Debt | 321.52M | 365.59M | 2.18M | 91.26M | 126.77M | 162.75M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.35B | 1.42B | 90.90M | 135.24M | 216.83M | 180.48M |
| Stockholders Equity | 756.96M | 654.96M | 507.44M | 400.54M | 396.98M | 184.42M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 390.22M | 669.74M | 145.19M | 44.44M | 77.33M | -120.98M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 563.06M | 794.39M | 174.62M | 65.30M | 95.31M | -24.74M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -186.13M | -936.07M | -21.94M | -41.73M | -13.36M | -113.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -95.50M | 406.22M | -86.56M | -23.13M | -5.38M | 85.95M |
Orla Mining Technical Analysis
Negative
22.56
Price Trends
21.22
Negative
21.98
Negative
18.89
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.60
Negative
39.93
Neutral
56.00
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OLA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 22.56 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.40, above the 50-day MA of 21.22, and above the 200-day MA of 18.89, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.60 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 39.93 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 56.00 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:OLA.
Orla Mining Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
85 Outperform | C$6.37B | 9.05 | 42.98% | ― | 55.87% | 71.11% | |
81 Outperform | C$5.83B | 5.27 | 26.78% | ― | 59.11% | 306.31% | |
77 Outperform | C$8.96B | -14.19 | 6.72% | ― | 73.38% | 169.61% | |
75 Outperform | C$9.07B | 7.74 | 15.70% | 1.71% | 85.46% | ― | |
71 Outperform | C$6.35B | 25.95 | 41.46% | ― | 207.42% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% | |
48 Neutral | C$4.90B | -89.65 | -42.54% | ― | ― | -104.74% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:OLA
Orla Mining
18.38
5.10
38.45%
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TSE:TXG
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42.97%
Orla Mining Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Orla Mining Delivers Strong Q1 Gold Output and Secures Key Camino Rojo Permit
Positive
Apr 13, 2026
Orla Mining reported first-quarter 2026 gold output of 81,206 ounces and sales of 81,540 ounces, keeping the company on track to meet its annual production guidance of 340,000 to 360,000 ounces. The miner ended the quarter with a net cash position...
Business Operations and Strategy
Orla Mining Extends High-Grade Gold Trend at Musselwhite With New Stacked Zones
Positive
Apr 9, 2026
Orla Mining reported new high-grade gold discoveries at its Musselwhite Mine, confirming that the Lynx and PQ Extension zones form stacked, continuous mineralized horizons extending at least two kilometres beyond current operations. These directio...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Orla Mining Delivers Record Free Cash Flow and Advances North American Growth Pipeline
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Orla Mining reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, producing 300,620 ounces of gold and exceeding its annual guidance while maintaining all-in sustaining costs within its targeted range. The company generated $133.4 million in ...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Orla Mining Wins Key Camino Rojo Permits, Clears Path to Underground Expansion
Positive
Mar 19, 2026
Orla Mining has secured a key environmental impact assessment from Mexican authorities for its Camino Rojo mine, giving it full authorization to complete the remaining oxide open pit, including a key layback and associated infrastructure. The perm...
Business Operations and StrategyRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Orla Mining Advances Nevada South Railroad Project With Construction-Ready Technical Report
Positive
Mar 2, 2026
Orla Mining has filed an updated NI 43-101 technical report for its South Railroad gold project in Nevada, advancing the asset within its broader South Carlin Complex on the Carlin Trend. The study elevates South Railroad to a construction-ready f...
Business Operations and Strategy
Orla Mining Unveils High-Return Underground Expansion Plan at Camino Rojo
Positive
Feb 20, 2026
Orla Mining has released a positive preliminary economic assessment for an underground project beneath its existing Camino Rojo open-pit mine in Mexico, outlining a standalone sulphide operation with its own processing circuits producing saleable ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.