Orla Mining (OLA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$6.98B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.10M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 95.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.82
• Revenue Growth: 151.45%
• EPS Growth: 1224.07%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 354
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.30
• Shares Outstanding: 339,896,200
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,803,770
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,096,129
• PEG Ratio: -0.07
• Price to Book (P/B): 5.00
• Price to Sales (P/S): 7.75
• P/FCF Ratio: 17.47
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$28.79
• Price Target Upside: 40.17% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 62 Neutral
• Price Target: C$28.00 ▲(36.32% Upside)

The score is primarily driven by solid operating performance and growth, tempered by weaker net profitability and negative free cash flow. Technicals show an uptrend but look overextended, while valuation is a meaningful headwind due to the very high P/E. Earnings call commentary is supportive thanks to strong liquidity, record results, and project progress, but cost and operational issues add risk.

Positive Factors

Revenue growth & operating margins

Orla's sustained 29.2% TTM revenue growth alongside robust gross (47.6%) and EBIT (28.3%) margins reflects efficient extraction and processing across assets. Durable operating profitability improves project economics, supports reinvestment capacity and resilience to cyclical commodity swings over 2–6 months and beyond.

Production scale & cash generation

Record quarterly production (~80k oz) converted into record free cash flow demonstrates the company’s ability to turn mine operations into liquidity. Stable production and cash conversion strengthen the firm's capacity to fund sustainment, reduce debt, and underwrite growth projects, improving financial durability.

Permitting progress for South Railroad

BLM notice of intent and FAST-41 designation materially reduce approval uncertainty for South Railroad, shortening regulatory timelines. This structural permitting advancement de-risks the development pipeline, increasing probability of construction and first-gold timing, strengthening medium-term production growth visibility.

Negative Factors

Negative and declining free cash flow

Despite strong operating cash generation, persistent negative free cash flow down 19.1% indicates heavy sustaining or growth capex and/or operational inefficiencies. Over months this constrains internal funding for projects, heightens reliance on external financing, and reduces strategic flexibility.

Elevated all-in sustaining costs

AISC of $1,641/oz materially compresses margins and increases sensitivity to lower gold prices. Structurally high unit costs reduce long-term returns on capital, limit free cash flow resilience during price or operational stress, and require sustained cost controls or higher grades to restore margin durability.

Moderate leverage and low net profitability

Debt-to-equity around 0.80 combined with a 4.3% net margin signals limited buffer against shocks. Moderate leverage plus low net profitability reduces financial flexibility to absorb cost overruns or fund expansion internally, increasing the firm's vulnerability to operational disruptions or weaker commodity prices over the medium term.

Orla Mining Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Orla Mining Ltd. acquires, explores for, and develops mineral properties. The company explores for gold, silver, zinc, lead, and copper deposits. It owns 100% interests in the Camino Rojo project that consists of seven concessions covering an area of 163,129 hectares located in Zacatecas, Mexico; and Cerro Quema project totaling an area of 14,800 hectares located in the Azuero Peninsula, Panama. The company was formerly known as Red Mile Minerals Corp. and changed its name to Orla Mining Ltd. in June 2015. Orla Mining Ltd. was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

Orla Mining generates revenue primarily through the exploration and development of its mineral projects, with a focus on gold and precious metals. The company's revenue model is largely dependent on the successful advancement of its projects to the production stage, where it can sell the extracted minerals in global markets. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold, silver, and other precious metals once production commences. Additionally, the company may benefit from strategic partnerships with other mining companies or financial institutions that can provide funding, technical expertise, or access to markets, which can enhance its operational capabilities and revenue potential. Market conditions, including gold prices and demand for precious metals, also significantly influence its earnings.

Orla Mining Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong revenue growth (+29.2% TTM) and healthy operating profitability (47.6% gross margin; 28.3% EBIT margin) are positives. Offsetting these are low net margin (4.3%), moderate leverage (0.80 debt-to-equity), and weak cash conversion driven by negative and declining free cash flow.

Income Statement

Orla Mining has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 29.2% increase in TTM, reflecting robust operational performance. The gross profit margin of 47.6% and EBIT margin of 28.3% indicate efficient cost management and profitability. However, the net profit margin of 4.3% suggests room for improvement in net earnings, possibly due to high non-operating expenses or taxes.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio of 0.80 in TTM indicates moderate leverage, which is manageable but higher than previous years. The return on equity of 5.3% shows profitability but is lower than industry standards, suggesting potential inefficiencies in asset utilization. The equity ratio of 29.0% reflects a stable capital structure, though there's room for strengthening equity.

Cash Flow

Orla Mining's operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.58, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. However, the negative free cash flow and its decline by 19.1% are concerning, suggesting high capital expenditures or operational challenges. The negative free cash flow to net income ratio highlights the need for improved cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	773.10M	327.41M	237.43M	187.48M	4.05M	0.00
Gross Profit	365.04M	173.39M	107.58M	104.92M	-12.54M	-111.37K
EBITDA	325.54M	213.48M	49.37M	99.47M	-24.08M	-25.97M
Net Income	53.39M	84.71M	-27.45M	44.41M	-25.84M	-29.10M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	1.97B	598.35M	535.78M	613.82M	364.89M	239.19M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	326.92M	160.85M	96.63M	96.28M	20.52M	72.18M
Total Debt	380.56M	2.18M	91.26M	126.77M	162.75M	70.41M
Total Liabilities	1.40B	90.90M	135.24M	216.83M	180.48M	78.61M
Stockholders Equity	573.48M	507.44M	400.54M	396.98M	184.42M	160.58M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-203.04M	145.19M	44.44M	77.33M	-120.98M	-49.43M
Operating Cash Flow	674.44M	174.62M	65.30M	95.31M	-24.74M	-18.13M
Investing Cash Flow	-881.83M	-21.94M	-41.73M	-13.36M	-113.27M	-36.90M
Financing Cash Flow	354.99M	-86.56M	-23.13M	-5.38M	85.95M	100.59M

Orla Mining Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 20.54
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OLA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.92, above the 50-day MA of 19.83, and above the 200-day MA of 16.12, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.30 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 45.54 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 42.92 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:OLA.

Orla Mining Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TXG	77 Outperform	$6.27B	13.66	17.29%	―	5.33%	143.67%
KNT	74 Outperform	C$6.22B	17.53	46.21%	―	81.13%	234.33%
SSRM	69 Neutral	$6.30B	21.91	6.84%	―	33.74%	―
BTO	67 Neutral	$8.86B	28.59	6.90%	1.71%	34.31%	―
OLA	62 Neutral	C$6.98B	95.76	9.79%	―	151.45%	1224.07%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
NG	50 Neutral	$4.83B	-32.67	-162.67%	―	―	-92.71%

Orla Mining Corporate Events

Orla Mining Tops 300,000 Ounces in Record 2025 Gold Output and Initiates Dividend

Orla Mining reported record 2025 gold production of 300,620 ounces, surpassing its revised guidance range of 265,000–285,000 ounces and marking the first time the company has exceeded 300,000 ounces in a year, with all-in sustaining costs expected to land within guidance. Strong output was driven by an exceptional performance at Musselwhite, where production attributable to Orla exceeded the top end of guidance, and a recovery at Camino Rojo following a mid-year pit wall issue, while the company advanced a 24‑month capital investment program, expanded resources, extended mineralization at Musselwhite, and ended the year in a net cash position alongside the launch of its inaugural quarterly dividend, underscoring growing financial strength and a pipeline aimed at supporting further production growth in 2026 and beyond.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Hold with a C$22.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Greenlights Construction Spending After Strong Feasibility Results at South Railroad Gold Project

Orla Mining has completed an optimized feasibility study for its South Railroad gold project in Nevada and approved the start of construction-related spending, with full construction targeted to begin in mid-2026 pending final permits. The study confirms robust economics and strong margins at current and higher gold price assumptions, underpinned by an initial capital cost estimate of US$395 million, a planned average annual production of 130,000 ounces of gold over the first five years, and a fully funded development plan supported by existing cash flow and cash on hand. As a FAST-41 covered project, South Railroad benefits from a clearer federal permitting path and is expected to become Orla’s third operating mine, lifting total company production to nearly 500,000 ounces annually and reinforcing its strategic position in Nevada, while the broader South Carlin Complex offers significant district-scale resource growth and potential mine life extensions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Hold with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Mining Confirms Two-Kilometre High-Grade Gold Extension at Musselwhite

Orla Mining reported further exploration success at its Musselwhite Mine, where new drilling has confirmed that high-grade gold mineralization extends two kilometres beyond current underground operations, reinforcing the potential for significant resource growth and a longer mine life. The company’s 2025–2026 deep directional drilling program has delivered strong intercepts, including a key step-out hole two kilometres down plunge and additional high-grade intersections in underground zones such as Lynx, Redwings, West Limb and PQE, while near-mine satellite targets have also returned shallow high-grade results; together, these results strengthen confidence in Musselwhite’s long-term production profile and suggest material upside for the broader extension area.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Buy with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Mining Strengthens Board with New Appointment

Orla Mining Ltd. has appointed Joanna Pearson as an Independent Non-Executive Director to its Board. With over 25 years of experience in financial reporting and risk management in the mining sector, Pearson’s expertise is expected to strengthen Orla’s commitment to financial oversight and accountability, potentially enhancing its industry position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Buy with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Mining Announces Inaugural Dividend and New Dividend Policy

Orla Mining Ltd. has announced its inaugural quarterly dividend of US$0.015 per share, marking a significant milestone in its growth strategy. This decision highlights the company’s financial strength and commitment to shareholder returns while balancing strategic growth investments, including the development of the South Railroad Gold Project. The dividend policy reflects the company’s confidence in its long-term growth and operational expansion across North America.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Hold with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Mining Unveils High-Grade Gold Discovery at South Carlin Complex

Orla Mining has announced significant findings from its 2025 exploration program at the South Carlin Complex, revealing high-grade oxide gold beyond current pit designs. This discovery supports the company’s growth trajectory as it prepares for construction in 2026 and production by 2028. The exploration results highlight the potential for open pit expansion at the Pinion and Dark Star deposits, with significant oxide mineralization found beyond current feasibility pit shells. Additionally, new satellite targets, such as the Spike and Firebox, show promising results, reinforcing the district-scale potential of the South Carlin Complex. These developments are expected to enhance Orla’s resource base and strengthen its position in the mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Hold with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Mining Achieves Record Cash Flow in Q3 2025

Orla Mining reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, generating a record $93 million in free cash flow. The company produced 79,645 ounces of gold and sold 78,857 ounces, achieving $275 million in revenue. Despite a pit wall event at Camino Rojo, Orla remains on track with its revised production and cost guidance. The company’s financial position is robust, with $326.9 million in cash and $356.9 million in liquidity, positioning it well for future growth and capital initiatives.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.

Orla Mining and Partners Launch C$6.6 Million Fund for First Nations Education and Development

Orla Mining, in collaboration with First Nation LP and Newmont, has announced a C$6.6 million fund dedicated to education, training, and skills development for 24 First Nations in Northwestern Ontario. This initiative, administered by Opiikapawiin Services LP, aims to support long-term skills development, cultural learning, and career opportunities over a decade. The fund underscores the commitment to fostering community growth and sustainability, building on a longstanding partnership with the Musselwhite mine. This initiative also reflects a broader effort to support Indigenous-led development and improve quality of life in the region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OLA) stock is a Hold with a C$15.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Orla Mining stock, see the TSE:OLA Stock Forecast page.