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OceanaGold (TSE:OGC)
TSX:OGC
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OceanaGold (OGC) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:OGC

OceanaGold

(TSX:OGC)

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Outperform 79 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:79Outperform
Price Target:
C$38.00
▲(9.64% Upside)
OceanaGold's strong financial performance and positive earnings call are the primary drivers of its high score. Technical indicators support a bullish outlook, while valuation metrics suggest the stock is fairly priced. Operational challenges noted in the earnings call are a minor concern but do not significantly impact the overall positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Strong Cash Flow Generation
Robust cash flow generation enhances OceanaGold's ability to invest in growth opportunities, reduce debt, and return capital to shareholders, supporting long-term financial health.
Debt-Free Balance Sheet
A debt-free balance sheet provides financial flexibility and reduces risk, allowing the company to navigate market fluctuations and invest in strategic initiatives.
Record Revenue and High Gold Prices
Record revenue driven by high gold prices indicates strong market demand and pricing power, which can sustain profitability and growth over the medium term.
Negative Factors
High All-In Sustaining Costs
High sustaining costs can pressure margins and reduce profitability, potentially impacting the company's ability to maintain competitive pricing and invest in growth.
Operational Challenges at Didipio
Operational challenges at Didipio may lead to increased costs and reduced efficiency, affecting production output and financial performance in the near to medium term.
Seasonal Weakness in Q3
Seasonal production weaknesses can lead to volatility in quarterly results, impacting investor confidence and potentially affecting long-term strategic planning.

OceanaGold (OGC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

OceanaGold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionOceanaGold Corporation, a gold producer, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company operates the Didipio gold-copper mine located in the Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino provinces on the island of Luzon in the Philippines; the Macraes goldfield mine on the South Island of New Zealand and the Waihi gold mine on the North Island of New Zealand; and the Haile gold mine located in South Carolina, the United States. OceanaGold Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in South Brisbane, Australia.
How the Company Makes MoneyOceanaGold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold, which is its core product. The company produces gold from its mining operations and sells it in the form of bullion to various buyers, including financial institutions and jewelry manufacturers. In addition to gold, OceanaGold also extracts copper and silver, which contribute additional revenue streams. The company benefits from strategic partnerships and supply agreements that help stabilize its income and facilitate market access. Additionally, fluctuating gold prices in the global market directly impact the company's earnings, with higher prices typically leading to increased revenue. Cost management and operational efficiency also play crucial roles in maintaining profitability.

OceanaGold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 19, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
OceanaGold reported a solid third quarter with strong financial performance, including record cash flow and revenue, a healthy balance sheet, and increased shareholder returns. However, some operational challenges and high sustaining costs were noted, but the company remains optimistic about meeting full-year guidance and achieving strong fourth-quarter performance.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow
The company delivered a strong quarter of free cash flow generation amounting to $94 million.
Strong Balance Sheet
OceanaGold reported a superb balance sheet with 0 debt and cash reserves reaching $335 million, up 12% from the previous quarter.
Increased Shareholder Returns
The company returned $46 million to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, and completed $100 million of share repurchases in 2025. The buyback program was increased by 75% to $175 million.
Record Quarterly Revenue
OceanaGold achieved a record quarterly revenue of $449 million, supported by a record average realized gold price of just under $3,500 per ounce.
High Returns on Capital
The rolling 12-month return on capital employed is 17%, and the company delivered $422 million of free cash flow over the same period, indicating a strong return on investments.
Project Developments on Track
Progress on early works construction activities at the Waihi North project is on track for fast-track permit approval by year-end.
Negative Updates
High All-In Sustaining Costs
The all-in sustaining costs were at the top of the guided range due to lower production volumes and capital investments.
Seasonal Weakness in Q3
Ore production at Haile was the planned lowest production quarter of the year, which affected the overall quarterly performance.
Operational Challenges at Didipio
Didipio's all-in sustaining costs are expected to be around the top of the guided range due to investments in mine water resilience and underground optimization plans.
Company Guidance
During the OceanaGold Corporation Q3 2025 Earnings Call, the company provided optimistic guidance for the remainder of the year and into 2026. OceanaGold anticipates a strong fourth quarter, with expectations to meet their full-year production guidance and generate significant free cash flow, driven by high-grade ore access at key sites like Haile and Macraes. The company reported a $94 million free cash flow in Q3, resulting in a $335 million cash balance, an increase of 12% from the previous quarter. The balance sheet remains robust with zero debt, allowing flexibility for further investments and an increased share buyback program, now totaling $175 million for 2025. OceanaGold's rolling 12-month return on capital employed stands at 17%, with a free cash flow yield of approximately 15%. The company is preparing for a New York Stock Exchange listing in April 2026 and remains focused on maximizing shareholder returns through disciplined capital allocation, including dividends and buybacks.

OceanaGold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
OceanaGold has shown strong financial performance with significant revenue growth, high profitability margins, and robust cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable with low leverage, enhancing financial stability.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
OceanaGold has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 6.6% increase in TTM, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 59.8%. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 24.0%, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 35.6% and 52.7%, respectively, reflecting efficient operations and cost management. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trajectory and strong profitability.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. Return on equity is healthy at 19.9%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at a solid level, suggesting a stable capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet indicates financial stability and prudent management of resources.
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 7.2% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.16 suggests strong cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.49 further supports the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong liquidity and cash management.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.67B1.29B1.03B967.40M744.70M500.10M
Gross Profit980.60M693.50M527.50M461.00M420.50M226.50M
EBITDA851.30M577.00M408.40M361.20M308.10M115.90M
Net Income403.10M187.40M83.10M132.60M-3.70M-150.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.88B2.61B2.55B2.38B2.31B2.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments334.90M193.38M61.26M84.02M131.75M178.64M
Total Debt55.50M71.56M231.80M255.89M370.00M312.27M
Total Liabilities754.10M681.59M713.20M688.59M774.35M803.98M
Stockholders Equity2.02B1.82B1.72B1.69B1.53B1.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow427.30M213.70M34.30M87.00M-63.30M-54.90M
Operating Cash Flow872.10M593.90M384.20M368.70M261.40M198.80M
Investing Cash Flow-442.30M-348.70M-341.80M-280.80M-315.80M-225.80M
Financing Cash Flow-257.80M-120.50M-57.80M-130.20M25.10M159.50M

OceanaGold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price34.66
Price Trends
50DMA
30.45
Positive
100DMA
25.57
Positive
200DMA
20.25
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.68
Negative
RSI
63.48
Neutral
STOCH
94.81
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OGC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 34.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 32.41, above the 50-day MA of 30.45, and above the 200-day MA of 20.25, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.68 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 63.48 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 94.81 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:OGC.

OceanaGold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
82
Outperform
C$6.46B14.8120.48%0.71%19.55%36.19%
79
Outperform
$6.82B13.2421.15%0.28%51.00%532.40%
78
Outperform
C$4.22B14.0846.21%81.13%234.33%
71
Outperform
$6.17B13.3017.29%5.33%143.67%
69
Neutral
2.41%0.50%17.31%19.28%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
60
Neutral
$5.92B20.576.84%33.74%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:OGC
OceanaGold
34.66
23.35
206.48%
TSE:SSRM
SSR Mining
29.15
21.61
286.60%
TSE:SSL
Sandstorm Gold
16.15
8.65
115.42%
TSE:DPM
Dundee Precious Mtl
31.53
19.20
155.72%
TSE:KNT
K92 Mining
19.43
11.15
134.66%
TSE:TXG
Torex Gold Resources
66.02
38.43
139.29%

OceanaGold Corporate Events

OceanaGold’s Earnings Call: Strong Q3 and Optimistic Outlook
Nov 8, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation’s recent earnings call painted a picture of robust financial health and optimism for the future. The company reported a solid third quarter, marked by record cash flow and revenue, a strong balance sheet, and increased returns to shareholders. Despite facing some operational challenges and high sustaining costs, the overall sentiment was positive, with confidence in meeting full-year guidance and achieving a strong fourth-quarter performance.

OceanaGold Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Nov 7, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation is a mid-tier gold and copper producer operating in the mining sector, known for its commitment to safe and responsible mining practices across its four operational sites in the USA, New Zealand, and the Philippines.

Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
OceanaGold Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results, Boosts Share Buyback Program
Positive
Nov 5, 2025

OceanaGold reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with significant free cash flow and no debt, positioning the company well for a robust fourth quarter. The company increased its share buyback program by 75% to $175 million and declared a $0.03 per share dividend, reflecting its commitment to delivering strong returns to shareholders. The ongoing exploration success at Haile and the anticipated permit approval for the Waihi North Project by year-end highlight OceanaGold’s focus on organic growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
OceanaGold Reports Promising Exploration Results at Haile Gold Mine
Positive
Sep 11, 2025

OceanaGold has announced successful exploration results from its Haile Gold Mine in the United States, highlighting significant high-grade mineralization at several deposits, including Ledbetter Phase 4 and Horseshoe Underground. The drilling results support the potential for low-risk organic growth and improved site economics, enhancing resource confidence and indicating opportunities for future underground development, which could positively impact the company’s operations and market positioning.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$34.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

OceanaGold Q2 2025: Record Profits and Strategic Growth
Aug 13, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation’s Q2 2025 earnings call revealed a strong financial and operational performance, marked by record profits and a solid cash position. Despite some anticipated short-term operational risks and increased costs, the company’s strategic initiatives and favorable market conditions contribute to a positive outlook for the future.

OceanaGold Reports Record Profit and Strong Cash Flow
Aug 8, 2025

OceanaGold Corporation is a growing intermediate gold and copper producer with a commitment to safely and responsibly maximize free cash flow generation from its operations, boasting a portfolio of four operating mines across the United States, the Philippines, and New Zealand.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Nov 08, 2025