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OceanaGold
(NYSE:OGC)
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Rating:83Outperform
Price Target:
C$46.00
▲(37.03% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/10/26
The score is primarily supported by strong financial performance (high profitability, improving cash generation, and extremely low leverage) and an attractive low P/E valuation. Technicals are positive in the near term but mixed over longer horizons, with overbought signals adding some near-term risk.
Positive Factors
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Revenue growth of ~56% and EPS growth of ~136%, alongside a ~35% TTM net margin, indicate a substantial operating turnaround. If production execution remains sound, stronger earnings can fund mine investment and shareholder returns, although metal prices remain relevant.
Negative Factors
High Gold-Price and Production Dependence
Gold is the dominant revenue driver and profitability depends on realized metal prices, production volumes, grades and recoveries. A sustained decline in gold prices or operational output would reduce revenue and cash generation, regardless of the company's low leverage.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong Revenue and Profit Growth
Revenue growth of ~56% and EPS growth of ~136%, alongside a ~35% TTM net margin, indicate a substantial operating turnaround. If production execution remains sound, stronger earnings can fund mine investment and shareholder returns, although metal prices remain relevant.
Read all positive factors
OceanaGold (OGC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.51B
Dividend Yield0.97%
Average Volume (3M)916.02K
Price to Earnings (P/E)8.7
Beta (1Y)2.35
Revenue Growth55.87%
EPS Growth135.78%
CountryCA
Employees5,400
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)3.58
Shares Outstanding222,447,530
10 Day Avg. Volume874,815
30 Day Avg. Volume916,017
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio11.87
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$60.88Price Target Upside81.34% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)4.25
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.79B
OceanaGold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
OceanaGold Corporation is a mining company primarily engaged in gold production, overseeing the full lifecycle of mineral properties from initial exploration and development through to active operation. The firm seeks out deposits rich in gold, co...
How the Company Makes Money
OceanaGold makes money primarily by producing and selling refined gold and gold doré (unrefined gold bars) into metals markets. Revenue is recognized based on the volume of metal delivered and the prevailing market price (often with final pricing ...
OceanaGold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Oct 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational delivery, record financial results, a strengthened balance sheet with zero debt, aggressive capital returns, and a material step-up in growth and exploration spending. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (higher production, lower AISC) and concrete development/exploration milestones (Waihi North permits, Haile and Macraes studies). Notable near-term headwinds include increased share-based compensation, accounting-driven cash cost uplift (~$70/oz), single-digit labor inflation and site-specific cost pressure at Didipio. On balance, positive operational momentum, strong cash generation, and meaningful shareholder returns outweigh the identified challenges.Positive Updates
Delivered on 2025 Guidance and Strong Operational Execution
Met full-year production, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) and capital guidance; all four sites increased gold production in Q4 2025 and every site met guidance for the year.
Negative Updates
Share-Based Compensation Impact
Increase in share-based compensation expense in Q4 increased reported costs; management estimated ~ $0.26 per share impact on adjusted EPS in Q4, with portions allocated to G&A and cost of sales.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Delivered on 2025 Guidance and Strong Operational Execution
Met full-year production, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) and capital guidance; all four sites increased gold production in Q4 2025 and every site met guidance for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
OceanaGold’s 2026 guidance targets a 12% increase in gold production (midpoint) versus 2025 with a 7% reduction in all‑in sustaining costs, led by a 35% production jump and ~25% unit cost decline at Haile (Haile Q4 2025 = 56,000 oz; company expects >200,000 oz/yr from 2026–2031 in the updated plan); Macraes is expected to be broadly flat (Macraes Q4 = 56,000 oz; Q4 AISC < $1,300/oz) with a five‑year extension to 2032 at a $2,200/oz study price; Waihi (Q4 ≈22,000 oz) and Didipio (Q4 ≈24,000 oz and ~3,200 t Cu) should sustain or slightly improve output and AISC (Didipio aided by higher copper by‑product credits). Growth and exploration capital will ramp materially — exploration capital up 2.5x to $340M (management also referenced ~50% higher exploration spend), funding Waihi North early works, Palomino underground at Haile and a Wharekirauponga program (>30 holes targeting >300,000 oz reserves in H1 and eight holes targeting ~150,000 oz inferred in H2). The Board has tripled the quarterly dividend and doubled the share buyback (up to $432M of 2026 capital returns, +112% y/y) while maintaining zero debt and $477M cash after record 2025 free cash flow of $543M (Q4 FCF $259M); studies use a conservative $2,200/oz assumption (illustrative allocation slide used $4,700/oz).OceanaGold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
88
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.46B | 1.93B | 1.29B | 1.03B | 967.40M | 744.70M |
| Gross Profit | 1.33B | 896.83M | 693.50M | 527.50M | 461.00M | 420.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.58B | 1.19B | 577.00M | 408.40M | 361.20M | 308.10M |
| Net Income | 866.79M | 639.71M | 187.40M | 83.10M | 132.60M | -3.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.60B | 3.42B | 2.61B | 2.55B | 2.38B | 2.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 654.80M | 475.63M | 193.38M | 61.70M | 84.02M | 131.75M |
| Total Debt | 50.10M | 80.15M | 71.56M | 230.13M | 255.89M | 367.41M |
| Total Liabilities | 963.50M | 1.06B | 681.59M | 829.19M | 688.59M | 774.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.54B | 2.26B | 1.82B | 1.72B | 1.69B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 739.16M | 550.88M | 213.70M | 34.30M | 87.00M | -63.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.28B | 1.00B | 593.90M | 384.20M | 368.70M | 261.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -541.11M | -449.23M | -348.70M | -341.80M | -280.80M | -315.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -378.49M | -259.57M | -120.50M | -57.80M | -130.20M | 25.10M |
OceanaGold Technical Analysis
Positive
33.57
Price Trends
36.24
Positive
39.40
Positive
41.18
Positive
Market Momentum
1.78
Negative
66.52
Neutral
91.58
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OGC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 33.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.83, below the 50-day MA of 36.24, and below the 200-day MA of 41.18, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.78 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.52 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 91.58 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:OGC.
OceanaGold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
83 Outperform | C$9.51B | 8.68 | 34.87% | 0.98% | 55.87% | 135.78% | |
75 Outperform | C$9.99B | 17.85 | 51.31% | ― | 411.07% | 541.04% | |
69 Neutral | C$10.06B | 9.46 | 21.87% | 2.04% | 72.47% | ― | |
67 Neutral | C$16.46B | 16.04 | 12.38% | 0.46% | 27.53% | 41.90% | |
67 Neutral | C$9.25B | 23.72 | 21.84% | 0.78% | 67.65% | 254.59% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:OGC
OceanaGold
42.75
19.21
81.63%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
62.97
30.73
95.29%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
7.61
2.21
40.87%
TSE:OR
OR Royalties
49.63
7.26
17.13%
TSE:ARTG
Artemis Gold
42.84
14.42
50.73%
OceanaGold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyM&A Transactions
OceanaGold to Acquire Ausgold in A$776 Million Deal for Katanning Project
Positive
Aug 17, 2026
OceanaGold has agreed to acquire all shares of Ausgold Limited, owner of the Katanning Gold Project in Western Australia, through a court-approved scheme of arrangement valued at about A$776 million. Ausgold shareholders will receive OceanaGold sh...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.