OceanaGold (TSE:OGC)
TSX:OGC
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OceanaGold
(TSX:OGC)
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Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$50.00
▲(5.86% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by very strong financial performance (high margins, strong cash generation, and minimal leverage) and a positive earnings outlook (higher production, lower costs, strong capital returns). The main constraint is weak technical momentum (below key moving averages with negative MACD), while valuation is supportive due to a low P/E.
Positive Factors
Robust cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and growing free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capital allocation, exploration and shareholder returns. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports multi‑year project funding and buybacks while preserving liquidity.
Negative Factors
Gold price sensitivity
Company economics and generous capital returns are materially exposed to gold price variance. A sustained drop in realized prices would compress margins, reduce FCF and force cuts to buybacks/dividends or slow project funding, affecting results for multiple quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Robust cash generation
Sustained high operating cash flow and growing free cash flow provide durable internal funding for capital allocation, exploration and shareholder returns. This reduces reliance on external financing and supports multi‑year project funding and buybacks while preserving liquidity.
Read all positive factors
OceanaGold (OGC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$9.83B
Dividend Yield0.42%
Average Volume (3M)983.75K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.9
Beta (1Y)2.21
Revenue Growth61.07%
EPS Growth163.91%
CountryCA
Employees2,146
SectorBasic Materials
Sector Strength58
IndustryGold
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)2.74
Shares Outstanding225,121,800
10 Day Avg. Volume685,477
30 Day Avg. Volume983,745
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio<0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.89
Price to Sales (P/S)3.40
P/FCF Ratio11.87
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$66.58Price Target Upside40.98% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)4.87
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$2.99B
OceanaGold Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
OceanaGold Corporation, a gold producer, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company operates the Didipio gold-copper mine located in the Nueva Vizcay...
How the Company Makes Money
OceanaGold primarily makes money by producing and selling refined gold (and, at certain operations, copper by-product) generated from ore mined and processed at its operating sites. Revenue is recognized largely from the sale of produced metal int...
OceanaGold Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 18, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 04, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational delivery, record financial results, a strengthened balance sheet with zero debt, aggressive capital returns, and a material step-up in growth and exploration spending. Management provided constructive 2026 guidance (higher production, lower AISC) and concrete development/exploration milestones (Waihi North permits, Haile and Macraes studies). Notable near-term headwinds include increased share-based compensation, accounting-driven cash cost uplift (~$70/oz), single-digit labor inflation and site-specific cost pressure at Didipio. On balance, positive operational momentum, strong cash generation, and meaningful shareholder returns outweigh the identified challenges.Positive Updates
Delivered on 2025 Guidance and Strong Operational Execution
Met full-year production, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) and capital guidance; all four sites increased gold production in Q4 2025 and every site met guidance for the year.
Negative Updates
Share-Based Compensation Impact
Increase in share-based compensation expense in Q4 increased reported costs; management estimated ~ $0.26 per share impact on adjusted EPS in Q4, with portions allocated to G&A and cost of sales.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Delivered on 2025 Guidance and Strong Operational Execution
Met full-year production, all-in sustaining cost (AISC) and capital guidance; all four sites increased gold production in Q4 2025 and every site met guidance for the year.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
OceanaGold’s 2026 guidance targets a 12% increase in gold production (midpoint) versus 2025 with a 7% reduction in all‑in sustaining costs, led by a 35% production jump and ~25% unit cost decline at Haile (Haile Q4 2025 = 56,000 oz; company expects >200,000 oz/yr from 2026–2031 in the updated plan); Macraes is expected to be broadly flat (Macraes Q4 = 56,000 oz; Q4 AISC < $1,300/oz) with a five‑year extension to 2032 at a $2,200/oz study price; Waihi (Q4 ≈22,000 oz) and Didipio (Q4 ≈24,000 oz and ~3,200 t Cu) should sustain or slightly improve output and AISC (Didipio aided by higher copper by‑product credits). Growth and exploration capital will ramp materially — exploration capital up 2.5x to $340M (management also referenced ~50% higher exploration spend), funding Waihi North early works, Palomino underground at Haile and a Wharekirauponga program (>30 holes targeting >300,000 oz reserves in H1 and eight holes targeting ~150,000 oz inferred in H2). The Board has tripled the quarterly dividend and doubled the share buyback (up to $432M of 2026 capital returns, +112% y/y) while maintaining zero debt and $477M cash after record 2025 free cash flow of $543M (Q4 FCF $259M); studies use a conservative $2,200/oz assumption (illustrative allocation slide used $4,700/oz).OceanaGold Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
86
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
92
Very Positive
Cash Flow
84
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.25B | 1.93B | 1.29B | 1.03B | 967.40M | 744.70M |
| Gross Profit | 1.24B | 896.83M | 693.50M | 527.50M | 461.00M | 420.50M |
| EBITDA | 1.22B | 1.01B | 577.00M | 408.40M | 361.20M | 308.10M |
| Net Income | 758.69M | 639.71M | 187.40M | 83.10M | 132.60M | -3.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.48B | 3.42B | 2.61B | 2.55B | 2.38B | 2.31B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 620.54M | 475.63M | 193.38M | 61.70M | 84.02M | 131.75M |
| Total Debt | 54.94M | 80.15M | 71.56M | 230.13M | 255.89M | 367.41M |
| Total Liabilities | 980.19M | 1.06B | 681.59M | 829.19M | 688.59M | 774.35M |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.39B | 2.26B | 1.82B | 1.72B | 1.69B | 1.53B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 729.16M | 550.88M | 213.70M | 34.30M | 87.00M | -63.30M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 1.19B | 1.00B | 593.90M | 384.20M | 368.70M | 261.40M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -464.41M | -449.23M | -348.70M | -341.80M | -280.80M | -315.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -327.79M | -259.57M | -120.50M | -57.80M | -130.20M | 25.10M |
OceanaGold Technical Analysis
Positive
47.23
Price Trends
48.49
Negative
44.86
Positive
35.74
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.18
Negative
53.87
Neutral
59.76
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OGC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.23 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 44.31, below the 50-day MA of 48.49, and above the 200-day MA of 35.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.18 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 53.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 59.76 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:OGC.
OceanaGold Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
78 Outperform | C$9.83B | 7.89 | 34.87% | 0.42% | 61.07% | 163.91% | |
74 Outperform | C$9.74B | 7.74 | 15.70% | 1.71% | 85.46% | ― | |
73 Outperform | C$9.85B | 34.33 | 14.10% | 0.55% | 60.37% | 695.19% | |
66 Neutral | C$7.92B | 19.24 | 48.81% | ― | 2793.48% | ― | |
64 Neutral | C$12.29B | 12.45 | 13.68% | ― | 39.21% | 76.75% | |
61 Neutral | $10.43B | 7.12 | -0.05% | 2.87% | 2.86% | -36.73% |
* Basic Materials Sector Average
TSE:OGC
OceanaGold
43.65
26.56
155.47%
TSE:ELD
Eldorado Gold
46.67
21.72
87.07%
TSE:BTO
B2Gold
7.25
3.20
78.84%
TSE:OR
OR Royalties
52.57
21.35
68.39%
TSE:ARTG
Artemis Gold
34.17
13.50
65.31%
OceanaGold Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
OceanaGold Sets Dates for Q1 2026 Results and Virtual Annual Meeting
Positive
Apr 16, 2026
OceanaGold will release its operational and financial results for the first quarter of 2026 after market close on May 6, 2026, followed by a senior management conference call and webcast on May 7 to discuss the performance. The moves signal an upc...
Business Operations and Strategy
OceanaGold Extends High-Grade Gold Zone at Wharekirauponga
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
OceanaGold has reported strong drilling results from six holes at its Wharekirauponga prospect, about 10 kilometres north of the Waihi operation in New Zealand, confirming the continuity and extension of a newly defined southern high-grade gold zo...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesFinancial Disclosures
OceanaGold Wins NYSE Listing to Broaden U.S. Investor Base
Positive
Apr 1, 2026
OceanaGold has secured approval to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange, with trading set to begin on April 7, 2026 under the ticker symbol OGC. The company will cease quotation on the U.S. OTC Markets, while its shares continue t...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
OceanaGold Updates Technical Reports, Confirms Free Cash Flow Outlook
Positive
Mar 27, 2026
OceanaGold has filed its Annual Information Form and updated NI 43-101 technical reports for its Haile, Macraes and Didipio operations, all effective December 31, 2025. The new mine plans rely solely on the company’s 2025 mineral reserves, e...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
OceanaGold Extends Mine Lives and Shifts Haile to Underground as 2025 Reserves Updated
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
OceanaGold reported year-end 2025 mineral reserves of 5.83 million ounces of gold, measured and indicated resources of 8.63 million ounces, and inferred resources of 2.5 million ounces, supported by a higher gold price assumption of $2,200 per oun...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
OceanaGold Posts Record Free Cash Flow, Ups 2026 Output and Payouts
Positive
Feb 18, 2026
OceanaGold reported that 2025 gold production reached 497,600 ounces, slightly above guidance mid-point, with all-in sustaining costs of $1,966 per ounce and record quarterly and annual financial performance. The miner ended the year debt-free wit...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.