OceanaGold (OGC) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $10.08B
• Dividend Yield: 0.42%
• Average Volume (3M): 561.35K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.95
• Revenue Growth: 51.00%
• EPS Growth: 532.40%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 2,146
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.55
• Shares Outstanding: 228,440,280
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 772,284
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 561,345
• PEG Ratio: 0.34
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.50
• Price to Sales (P/S): 4.92
• P/FCF Ratio: 29.80
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.71
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 4.27
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 7.26
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 8.36
• 1Y Price Target: $50.17
• Price Target Upside: 10.10% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 8
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: C$54.00 ▲(18.50% Upside)

The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (high margins, improving free cash flow, and very low leverage) and a supportive earnings outlook with strong cash generation and enhanced shareholder returns. Technicals confirm a strong uptrend, but overbought signals temper the rating, and valuation support is moderate given a mid-range P/E and low dividend yield.

Positive Factors

Balance sheet strength

Extremely low leverage provides durable financial flexibility over months, reducing refinancing and covenant risk. A conservative capital structure supports continued investments, exploration and an enlarged buyback/dividend program without eroding liquidity or forcing asset sales.

Cash generation capability

Consistent FCF growth and strong cash conversion (operating cash flow to net income ~2.16x) underpin sustainable funding for sustaining and growth capex, dividends and buybacks. Reliable cash generation reduces financing dependence and supports multi-quarter capital allocation plans.

High profitability and returns

Robust gross and net margins, plus strong EBIT/EBITDA margins, point to structural cost advantages and efficient operations. Elevated margins and a 17% rolling ROCE enable persistent reinvestment, reserve building and shareholder returns across a 2–6 month horizon.

Negative Factors

High all-in sustaining costs

Sustained AISC at the top of guidance compresses unit economics and can erode free cash flow if persistent. When higher sustaining costs coincide with lower volumes, the margin buffer shrinks and long-term capital allocation choices (capex vs returns) become constrained.

Operational issues at Didipio

Required investments to improve water resilience and underground plans increase sustaining capex and operational complexity. Such structural remediation can extend timelines, raise unit costs and risk production shortfalls over multiple quarters until optimization is complete.

Seasonal production variability

Planned seasonal troughs create recurring output and revenue variability which complicates cash flow smoothing and planning. Over the next few quarters, predictable seasonality can still cause periodic margin pressure and stress targets for steady capital returns.

OceanaGold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

OceanaGold Corporation, a gold producer, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It explores for gold, copper, and silver deposits. The company operates the Didipio gold-copper mine located in the Nueva Vizcaya and Quirino provinces on the island of Luzon in the Philippines; the Macraes goldfield mine on the South Island of New Zealand and the Waihi gold mine on the North Island of New Zealand; and the Haile gold mine located in South Carolina, the United States. OceanaGold Corporation was founded in 2003 and is based in South Brisbane, Australia.

How the Company Makes Money

OceanaGold generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold and copper. The company sells its produced metals in the global market, where prices fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics, as well as macroeconomic factors. Key revenue streams include gold bullion sales, copper sales, and by-product sales from its mining operations. OceanaGold also benefits from strategic partnerships and joint ventures that enhance its operational capabilities and market reach. Moreover, the company implements cost management strategies and operational efficiencies to maximize profitability in varying market conditions.

OceanaGold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong overall fundamentals supported by high profitability (TTM net margin 24.0%; EBIT 35.6%; EBITDA 52.7%), solid revenue growth (6.6% TTM), improving free cash flow (7.2% growth), and a very low leverage profile (debt-to-equity 0.03).

Income Statement

OceanaGold has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 6.6% increase in TTM, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 59.8%. The net profit margin has improved significantly to 24.0%, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 35.6% and 52.7%, respectively, reflecting efficient operations and cost management. Overall, the income statement shows a positive growth trajectory and strong profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a strong financial position with a low debt-to-equity ratio of 0.03, indicating minimal leverage and financial risk. Return on equity is healthy at 19.9%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at a solid level, suggesting a stable capital structure. Overall, the balance sheet indicates financial stability and prudent management of resources.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals a positive trend with a 7.2% growth in free cash flow, indicating improved cash generation capabilities. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.16 suggests strong cash conversion efficiency. The free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.49 further supports the company's ability to generate cash relative to its net income. Overall, the cash flow statement reflects strong liquidity and cash management.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.67B	1.29B	1.03B	967.40M	744.70M	500.10M
Gross Profit	980.60M	693.50M	527.50M	461.00M	420.50M	226.50M
EBITDA	851.30M	577.00M	408.40M	361.20M	308.10M	115.90M
Net Income	403.10M	187.40M	83.10M	132.60M	-3.70M	-150.40M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.88B	2.61B	2.55B	2.38B	2.31B	2.37B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	334.10M	193.38M	61.70M	84.02M	131.75M	178.64M
Total Debt	55.37M	71.56M	230.13M	255.89M	367.41M	312.27M
Total Liabilities	752.29M	681.59M	829.19M	688.59M	774.35M	803.98M
Stockholders Equity	2.02B	1.82B	1.72B	1.69B	1.53B	1.56B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	427.30M	213.70M	34.30M	87.00M	-63.30M	-54.90M
Operating Cash Flow	872.10M	593.90M	384.20M	368.70M	261.40M	198.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-442.30M	-348.70M	-341.80M	-280.80M	-315.80M	-225.80M
Financing Cash Flow	-257.80M	-120.50M	-57.80M	-130.20M	25.10M	159.50M

OceanaGold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 45.57
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:OGC, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 45.57 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.38, above the 50-day MA of 40.67, and above the 200-day MA of 27.80, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.36 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.17 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 24.93 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:OGC.

OceanaGold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OGC	78 Outperform	$10.08B	18.20	21.15%	0.42%	51.00%	532.40%
OR	76 Outperform	$10.09B	49.06	11.26%	0.55%	37.22%	―
NGD	73 Outperform	C$10.83B	31.36	22.29%	―	48.70%	1718.41%
ELD	72 Outperform	$11.71B	21.08	9.54%	―	44.88%	38.67%
BTO	67 Neutral	C$8.86B	28.59	6.90%	1.71%	34.31%	―
ARTG	62 Neutral	$9.12B	41.82	28.16%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

OceanaGold Corporate Events

OceanaGold Sets Date for Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results

OceanaGold has announced that it will publish its operational and financial results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2025, after market close on February 18, 2026, with the full results available on its website. Senior management will discuss the performance and outlook in a conference call and webcast on February 19, 2026, signalling continued engagement with investors and other stakeholders as the company updates the market on its cash flow generation, operational progress and portfolio of four operating mines across the U.S., New Zealand and the Philippines.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$51.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

OceanaGold Wins Key Permit for High-Grade Waihi North Gold Expansion in New Zealand

OceanaGold has secured final government approval to develop and operate its Waihi North Project in New Zealand, including the high-grade Wharekirauponga underground mine, an expanded processing and water treatment plant, a new tailings storage facility, and increased exploration capacity. The board has already greenlit key early works, including selection of a tunnelling contractor expected to mobilize in the first half of 2026, bulk earthworks at the Willows portal site, and a power upgrade, with supporting infrastructure such as a services trench and water treatment expansion underway; together, these developments are poised to materially extend the life of the Waihi operation, boost gold production, and deliver significant investment, employment, and regional economic benefits while being funded from the company’s strong balance sheet.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$52.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

OceanaGold Reports Promising Exploration Results and Provisional Approval for Waihi North Project

OceanaGold has announced significant progress in its exploration and development activities in New Zealand. The company reported high-grade mineralization results from its Wharekirauponga exploration project, indicating a promising extension of the resource. Additionally, OceanaGold received a draft decision from the New Zealand government, indicating a provisional intention to approve the Waihi North Project, which could extend the life of the Waihi operation and bring economic benefits to local communities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$42.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.

OceanaGold Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results, Boosts Share Buyback Program

OceanaGold reported strong financial results for the third quarter of 2025, with significant free cash flow and no debt, positioning the company well for a robust fourth quarter. The company increased its share buyback program by 75% to $175 million and declared a $0.03 per share dividend, reflecting its commitment to delivering strong returns to shareholders. The ongoing exploration success at Haile and the anticipated permit approval for the Waihi North Project by year-end highlight OceanaGold’s focus on organic growth and value creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:OGC) stock is a Buy with a C$35.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on OceanaGold stock, see the TSE:OGC Stock Forecast page.