Nexus Real Estate Investment Trust (TSE:NXR.UT)
TSX:NXR.UT
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Nexus Real Estate Investment
(TSX:NXR.UT)
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Rating:70Outperform
Price Target:
C$9.00
▲(10.84% Upside)
Action:Upgraded
Date:05/12/26
The score is driven primarily by solid but not top-tier financial quality (leverage and inconsistent cash conversion offset good revenue/profitability), supported by a clear uptrend in technicals. Valuation is favorable with a strong yield and moderate P/E, while the earnings call was broadly positive on guidance and payout ratio progress but tempered by vacancy and cost headwinds.
Positive Factors
Improved funding profile
An investment-grade rating plus a $500M debenture issuance materially strengthens Nexus's long-term funding flexibility and reduces refinancing risk. Lower and more predictable funding costs support capital recycling, development financing and steadier interest expense over multiple years.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage
Materially higher leverage increases sensitivity to rising interest rates and refinancing cycles, constraining financial flexibility. With debt levels elevated relative to equity, earnings and distributions face greater pressure from any sustained interest-cost increases or slower asset-sale proceeds.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Improved funding profile
An investment-grade rating plus a $500M debenture issuance materially strengthens Nexus's long-term funding flexibility and reduces refinancing risk. Lower and more predictable funding costs support capital recycling, development financing and steadier interest expense over multiple years.
Read all positive factors
Nexus Real Estate Investment (NXR.UT) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$755.23M
Dividend Yield8.07%
Average Volume (3M)117.25K
Price to Earnings (P/E)12.7
Beta (1Y)0.81
Revenue Growth-1.48%
EPS Growth-29.78%
CountryCA
Employees21
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength53
IndustryREIT - Industrial
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.63
Shares Outstanding71,803,000
10 Day Avg. Volume121,432
30 Day Avg. Volume117,248
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.35
Price to Book (P/B)0.70
Price to Sales (P/S)4.32
P/FCF Ratio28.11
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$8.50Price Target Upside4.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusHold
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)0.59
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$187.05M
Nexus Real Estate Investment Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Nexus is a growth oriented real estate investment trust focused on increasing unitholder value through the acquisition, ownership and management of industrial, office and retail properties located in primary and secondary markets in North America....
How the Company Makes Money
Nexus generally makes money by acquiring and operating income-producing commercial properties and earning rental income from tenants. The core revenue stream is contractual lease revenue (base rent) billed to tenants for the right to occupy space,...
Nexus Real Estate Investment Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 11, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive operational and strategic trajectory: solid NOI growth (+5.4%), increases in normalized FFO/AFFO per unit, an investment-grade rating and $500M inaugural bond issuance, progress on renewals and development projects, and NAV uptick. Near-term headwinds include two unplanned vacancies (reducing occupancy to 95%), a small decline in headline net income, higher interest and carrying costs on unsold development, and a more cautious leasing backdrop in certain markets. Management expects these issues to be offset over the full year via lease-ups, re-leasing at market rents, completed developments and proceeds from asset sales.Positive Updates
Net Operating Income Growth
Q1 net operating income (NOI) was $33.8 million, up 5.4% year-over-year, driven by completed developments and acquisitions.
Negative Updates
Decline in Headline Net Income
Q1 net income was $32.2 million, down $1.0 million (about -3.0%) versus $33.2 million a year ago, primarily due to lower fair value adjustments on investment properties (-$6.8M) and lower Class B LP unit fair value adjustments (-$5.6M), partially offset by derivative gains.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Net Operating Income Growth
Q1 net operating income (NOI) was $33.8 million, up 5.4% year-over-year, driven by completed developments and acquisitions.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated 2026 guidance calling for mid‑single‑digit industrial same‑property NOI growth and an average normalized AFFO payout ratio below 100% for the full year; key metrics underpinning that outlook include Q1 NOI $33.8M (+5.4% YoY), normalized FFO $17.7M, normalized AFFO per unit $0.162 and a Q1 normalized AFFO payout ratio of 96.6% (first sub‑100% in 10 quarters), LTM adjusted EBITDA $121.3M, NAV $13.29/unit (+$0.07), and a weighted average cap rate of 5.94% (+6 bps). Management is relying on leasing and roll‑forward activity from 990,000 sqft of 2026 expiries (510,000 sqft renewed to date at +7% avg — +26% avg excl one reset; 380,000 sqft remain with 240,000 sqft in solid discussions), a 15.8% market vs. in‑place rent spread as of March 31, 41,000 sqft of new leases at a 32% rent lift, expected re‑leasing of 88,000 sqft in London at ~$9–$10/sqft net, and the exclusion of a $1.2M lease termination fee from the SPNOI calculation; capital and liquidity actions supporting the plan include a DBRS BBB (low) stable rating and a $500M inaugural debenture issuance (3‑yr $300M @4.236%, 5‑yr $200M @4.641%).Nexus Real Estate Investment Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
72
Positive
Balance Sheet
58
Neutral
Cash Flow
52
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 174.95M | 175.70M | 157.65M | 137.12M | 83.56M |
| Gross Profit | 129.44M | 125.87M | 111.97M | 95.81M | 55.95M |
| EBITDA | 113.16M | 145.87M | 201.67M | 142.37M | -14.93M |
| Net Income | 59.55M | 90.88M | 160.03M | 91.75M | 146.36M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 2.65B | 2.60B | 2.46B | 1.97B | 1.66B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 6.11M | 11.53M | 5.92M | 11.53M | 82.28M |
| Total Debt | 1.30B | 1.25B | 1.19B | 827.11M | 679.55M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.57B | 1.54B | 1.46B | 1.09B | 968.67M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.08B | 1.06B | 1.00B | 872.54M | 689.48M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 26.87M | 24.70M | 32.08M | 30.32M | 19.62M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 43.14M | 38.96M | 51.02M | 41.53M | 25.00M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -60.04M | -78.60M | -345.99M | -315.73M | -469.25M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 11.48M | 45.26M | 289.36M | 203.45M | 512.54M |
Nexus Real Estate Investment Technical Analysis
Positive
8.12
Price Trends
7.74
Positive
7.75
Positive
7.59
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.02
Positive
51.74
Neutral
26.19
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NXR.UT, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 8.12 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 7.93, above the 50-day MA of 7.74, and above the 200-day MA of 7.59, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.02 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 51.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 26.19 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NXR.UT.
Nexus Real Estate Investment Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
70 Outperform | C$755.23M | 12.68 | 5.54% | 8.07% | -1.48% | -29.78% | |
68 Neutral | C$2.19B | 9.91 | -0.71% | 4.42% | 4.79% | -103.92% | |
65 Neutral | $2.17B | 12.19 | 3.79% | 4.94% | 3.15% | 1.96% | |
62 Neutral | C$1.56B | 3,070.92 | 10.42% | 0.09% | 6.33% | -23.45% | |
59 Neutral | C$1.83B | -114.62 | 0.20% | 3.01% | >-0.01% | ― | |
54 Neutral | C$5.35B | -7.56 | 0.08% | 4.20% | -8.46% | -97.03% | |
52 Neutral | C$639.25M | -2.70 | -39.64% | 3.87% | -0.32% | -340.85% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.