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North American Construction Group Ltd (TSE:NOA)
TSX:NOA
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North American Construction Group (NOA) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:NOA

North American Construction Group

(TSX:NOA)

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Neutral 68 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:68Neutral
Price Target:
C$22.00
▲(13.75% Upside)
The overall stock score reflects a balanced view of North American Construction Group's strengths and challenges. Strong financial performance and technical indicators are offset by high leverage and cash flow concerns. The company's optimistic outlook and strategic contract wins provide a positive long-term perspective.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates strong market demand and effective execution of contracts, supporting long-term business expansion.
Contract Wins
Securing major contracts and a high renewal rate enhances revenue visibility and strengthens competitive positioning.
Safety Performance
Strong safety performance underscores operational efficiency and can lead to cost savings and client trust, benefiting long-term operations.
Negative Factors
High Leverage
High leverage can limit financial flexibility and increase risk, potentially impacting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow suggests challenges in covering operational expenses and funding growth, which could strain financial resources.
Operational Challenges
Operational disruptions can lead to increased costs and impact profitability, posing risks to sustained financial performance.

North American Construction Group (NOA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

North American Construction Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNorth American Construction Group (NOA) is a leading provider of heavy civil construction services, primarily focused on the oil sands sector in Canada. The company specializes in earthworks, site preparation, and infrastructure development, offering a wide range of services such as excavation, grading, and transportation. NOA operates in various sectors including energy, mining, and civil infrastructure, delivering turnkey solutions that encompass project management, construction, and maintenance services.
How the Company Makes MoneyNorth American Construction Group generates revenue primarily through contracts awarded for large-scale construction projects in the oil sands and other industrial sectors. The company's revenue model is based on a combination of fixed-price, cost-plus, and unit price contracts, which allows it to earn income from both direct labor and equipment rental. Key revenue streams include project execution, maintenance services, and equipment leasing. NOA also benefits from significant partnerships with major oil and gas companies, enabling it to secure long-term contracts and work on high-value projects. Additionally, the company's expertise in safety and efficiency enhances its competitive edge, contributing to repeat business and client loyalty.

North American Construction Group Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 13, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed picture with strong growth and contract wins in Australia and a focus on safety and operational efficiency. However, the quarter faced significant challenges with higher maintenance costs, operational disruptions, and project margin adjustments. Despite these issues, the company remains optimistic about the second half of 2025 and beyond.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Revenue Growth in Australia
Australia posted $168 million in revenue for the quarter, more than double since Q2 2022. The MacKellar Group set a company record with $60 million in June alone, indicating strong demand and growth trajectory.
Strong Safety Performance
The total recordable incident rate of 0.42 remains better than the industry target, showcasing NACG's commitment to safety and operational efficiency.
Major Contract Wins and Renewals
NACG won the biggest contract in company history post-Q2, achieving a record backlog and a 100% renewal rate in Australia. Additionally, the Texas thermal coal mine management contract was renewed until 2028.
Successful Financing
Completion of a $225 million offering of senior unsecured notes provides liquidity for future growth opportunities.
Negative Updates
Higher Maintenance Costs in Australia
Unexpected high maintenance costs were incurred due to reliance on subcontractor labor, impacting EBITDA negatively.
Operational Challenges in Oil Sands
An abrupt stop to work in April led to higher operational and overhead costs, affecting financial performance.
Fargo Project Margin Adjustment
The settlement and updated project plan led to significant margin adjustments, impacting quarterly financials.
Component Issues in Canada
Early failures of certain components in the heavy equipment fleet led to higher depreciation costs.
Company Guidance
In the North American Construction Group's second quarter 2025 conference call, the company reported an EBITDA of $80 million with a margin of 21.6%, influenced by higher-than-expected maintenance costs in Australia, operational disruptions in the oil sands, and margin adjustments at the Fargo project. Excluding these factors, EBITDA would have surpassed $100 million, with a typical margin of 27-28%. Revenue for the quarter reached $371 million, marking a 12% increase from the previous year, driven by a 14% rise in Australian revenue. The company maintained a gross profit margin of 10.7%, impacted by subcontractor costs and operational inefficiencies. Despite these challenges, the firm anticipates a strong second half, targeting a return to historical growth trends in 2026 with annual organic revenue growth of 5-10%. The company also reported net debt of $897 million, with a leverage ratio of 2.2x.

North American Construction Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
North American Construction Group shows robust revenue growth and operational efficiency, with strong EBIT and EBITDA margins. However, challenges exist in net profit margin and free cash flow generation, compounded by high leverage on the balance sheet, which may limit financial flexibility.
Income Statement
72
Positive
North American Construction Group's income statement shows robust growth, with a significant increase in total revenue over recent years. The gross profit margin for TTM is approximately 16.09%, reflecting solid cost management. The net profit margin, however, is relatively low at 3.21% for TTM, indicating pressure on bottom-line profitability. The EBIT margin is strong at 12.04% for TTM, and EBITDA margin is commendable at 24.69%, highlighting efficient operations and strong earnings before non-cash charges. Revenue growth from 2023 to TTM is notable at 26.37%, showcasing a positive growth trajectory.
Balance Sheet
65
Positive
The balance sheet reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 1.79 for TTM, indicating significant leverage, which could pose risks if earnings fluctuate. The equity ratio stands at 25.74% for TTM, suggesting a reasonable level of equity financing. Return on equity (ROE) is relatively low at 8.42% for TTM, reflecting modest returns on shareholder investments. While the company maintains a stable asset base, the high leverage could impact financial flexibility.
Cash Flow
58
Neutral
Cash flow analysis shows that the company has a negative free cash flow for TTM, primarily due to substantial capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is strong at 6.61 for TTM, indicating good cash generation relative to net income. The free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting challenges in converting net income into free cash flow. Although operating cash flow is robust, the negative free cash flow due to high investment spending is a concern.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.17B957.22M769.54M654.14M500.37M
Gross Profit210.05M154.22M101.55M90.42M94.38M
EBITDA283.06M228.69M191.06M149.81M160.35M
Net Income44.09M63.14M67.37M51.41M49.21M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets1.69B1.55B979.51M869.28M838.93M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments77.88M88.61M69.14M16.60M43.91M
Total Debt825.10M717.05M435.39M395.23M446.18M
Total Liabilities1.31B1.19B673.59M590.82M590.49M
Stockholders Equity388.90M356.65M305.92M278.46M248.44M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-66.74M66.90M53.94M51.39M29.70M
Operating Cash Flow217.61M270.39M169.20M165.18M147.27M
Investing Cash Flow-274.68M-244.88M-97.47M-99.27M-113.57M
Financing Cash Flow45.98M-7.75M-19.49M-92.76M4.67M

North American Construction Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Negative
Last Price19.34
Price Trends
50DMA
19.81
Negative
100DMA
20.44
Negative
200DMA
22.01
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
0.04
Positive
RSI
39.47
Neutral
STOCH
2.32
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NOA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 19.34 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 20.70, below the 50-day MA of 19.81, and below the 200-day MA of 22.01, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of 0.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 39.47 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 2.32 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NOA.

North American Construction Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
77
Outperform
C$925.34M12.7615.38%4.27%9.33%-36.51%
72
Outperform
$1.12B9.2618.06%3.80%9.24%6.35%
71
Outperform
C$2.17B12.2512.48%0.80%5.92%
68
Neutral
$577.27M15.548.24%2.48%14.58%-37.71%
65
Neutral
$15.17B7.614.09%5.20%3.87%-62.32%
55
Neutral
C$269.69M27.351.53%-4.63%-92.13%
39
Underperform
C$43.70M-6.64-39.95%415.42%55.41%
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NOA
North American Construction Group
19.34
-8.64
-30.87%
TSE:CFW
Calfrac Well Services
3.15
-0.58
-15.55%
TSE:EFX
Enerflex
18.81
8.86
89.05%
TSE:PSI
Pason Systems
12.18
-1.89
-13.43%
TSE:SFD
NXT Energy Solutn
0.40
0.22
122.22%
TSE:TCW
Trican Well Service
5.48
0.93
20.44%

North American Construction Group Corporate Events

Private Placements and Financing
North American Construction Group Secures $125 Million in Additional Notes
Positive
Oct 22, 2025

North American Construction Group Ltd. has closed a private placement offering of an additional $125 million in Senior Unsecured Notes, bringing the total to $350 million. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes, potentially enhancing the company’s financial flexibility and market position.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NOA) stock is a Hold with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on North American Construction Group stock, see the TSE:NOA Stock Forecast page.

North American Construction Group Announces Q3 2025 Financial Results Release and Conference Call
Oct 17, 2025

North American Construction Group Ltd. announced that it will release its financial results for the third quarter ended September 30, 2025, on November 12, 2025, after markets close. Following the release, a conference call and webcast will be held on November 13, 2025, to discuss the results, providing stakeholders with insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NOA) stock is a Hold with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on North American Construction Group stock, see the TSE:NOA Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
North American Construction Group to Announce Q3 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Oct 16, 2025

North American Construction Group Ltd. announced it will release its third-quarter financial results for 2025 on November 12, followed by a conference call and webcast on November 13. This announcement may impact stakeholders by providing insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially influencing market perceptions and investment decisions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NOA) stock is a Hold with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on North American Construction Group stock, see the TSE:NOA Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
North American Construction Group Expands Debt Offering with $125 Million Notes
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

North American Construction Group Ltd. announced a private placement offering of an additional $125 million in senior unsecured notes, adding to the $225 million issued earlier this year. The proceeds will be used to repay existing debt and for general corporate purposes, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NOA) stock is a Hold with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on North American Construction Group stock, see the TSE:NOA Stock Forecast page.

North American Construction’s Mixed Q2: Growth Amid Challenges
Sep 1, 2025

The recent earnings call for North American Construction presented a mixed sentiment, highlighting both achievements and challenges. The company reported strong growth and significant contract wins in Australia, alongside a steadfast commitment to safety and operational efficiency. However, the quarter was marred by increased maintenance costs, operational disruptions, and project margin adjustments. Despite these hurdles, the company remains optimistic about its prospects for the latter half of 2025 and beyond.

North American Construction Reports Mixed Q2 2025 Results
Aug 15, 2025

North American Construction Group Ltd. is a leading provider of heavy civil construction and mining services across Australia, Canada, and the U.S., known for its extensive experience in the mining, resource, and infrastructure construction markets. In its latest earnings report for the second quarter of 2025, NACG reported a 12% increase in combined revenue to $370.6 million, although gross profit declined by 37% to $39.8 million. The company faced challenges that impacted its adjusted EPS, which dropped by 98% to $0.02, and adjusted EBITDA, which decreased by 12% to $80.1 million. Key operational highlights include a 14% revenue increase in the Heavy Equipment – Australia segment and a 20% rise in the Heavy Equipment – Canada segment, driven by expanded fleet and project ramp-ups. However, the company faced cost pressures due to subcontractor reliance and project disruptions. Despite these challenges, NACG remains optimistic about the second half of 2025, expecting consistent revenue in the oil sands sector and projecting long-term growth through ongoing Australian expansion and new infrastructure projects.

North American Construction Group Reports Q2 2025 Results with Revenue Growth Amid Challenges
Aug 13, 2025

North American Construction Group Ltd. reported its financial results for the second quarter ending June 30, 2025, showing a 12% increase in combined revenue to $370.6 million, driven by strong performance in its Australian and Canadian segments. However, adjusted EBITDA and EPS fell short of expectations due to operational challenges, including labor market constraints in Australia and demand volatility in Canadian oil sands. Despite these setbacks, the company remains optimistic about its second-half performance, supported by a significant $2.0 billion contract in Queensland and ongoing strategic initiatives to enhance operational efficiency.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NOA) stock is a Buy with a C$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on North American Construction Group stock, see the TSE:NOA Stock Forecast page.

North American Construction Group Secures Historic $2 Billion Contract in Australia
Aug 7, 2025

On August 6, 2025, North American Construction Group Ltd. announced a significant milestone with the signing of a $2.0 billion, five-year contract extension with a leading coal producer in Queensland, Australia. This contract, the largest in the company’s history, boosts NACG’s total contractual backlog to a record $4.0 billion as of March 31, 2025, providing substantial revenue visibility through 2029. The contract introduces risk and reward mechanisms to align NACG with the client’s operational goals, further solidifying its industry position and long-term growth prospects.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NOA) stock is a Buy with a C$45.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on North American Construction Group stock, see the TSE:NOA Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 16, 2025