North American Construction Group Ltd (TSE:NOA)
TSX:NOA
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North American Construction Group
(TSX:NOA)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
C$19.00
▲(2.59% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:04/02/26
The score is held back primarily by weakening fundamentals (margin compression, elevated leverage, and negative free cash flow) and bearish technicals (below major moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by a constructive earnings-call outlook with reiterated 2026 guidance backed by backlog/pipeline, plus a reasonable P/E and dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Large backlog and bid pipeline
A nearly $3.9B backlog and a $12.6B bid pipeline provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and multiple award opportunities. Secured $1.2B for 2026 reduces near-term revenue volatility and supports operational planning and crew/equipment utilization over the medium term.
Negative Factors
Elevated leverage and debt mix
Higher leverage reduces financial flexibility and increases interest burden, limiting capital allocation options. With net leverage above the company target and material high‑yield exposure, management must generate steady FCF or divest assets to avoid refinancing pressure over the medium term.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Large backlog and bid pipeline
A nearly $3.9B backlog and a $12.6B bid pipeline provide multi-quarter revenue visibility and multiple award opportunities. Secured $1.2B for 2026 reduces near-term revenue volatility and supports operational planning and crew/equipment utilization over the medium term.
Read all positive factors
North American Construction Group (NOA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$528.14M
Dividend Yield2.56%
Average Volume (3M)116.77K
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.7
Beta (1Y)1.29
Revenue Growth8.24%
EPS Growth-36.88%
CountryCA
Employees1,825
SectorEnergy
Sector Strength52
IndustryOil & Gas Equipment & Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.00
Shares Outstanding28,517,365
10 Day Avg. Volume115,249
30 Day Avg. Volume116,773
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.59
Price to Book (P/B)1.24
Price to Sales (P/S)0.44
P/FCF Ratio-21.33
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$24.57Price Target Upside32.64% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
EPS Forecast (FY)2.5
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.39B
North American Construction Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
North American Construction Group Ltd. provides equipment maintenance, and mining and heavy construction services in Canada, the United States, and Australia. The company's Heavy Construction & Mining division offers constructability reviews, budg...
How the Company Makes Money
NOA makes money by providing contracted heavy construction and mining services to resource and infrastructure customers, earning revenue primarily from performing work under service contracts. Key revenue streams generally include: (1) Mining and ...
North American Construction Group Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 29, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a largely constructive outlook: strong backlog and a large bid pipeline, record regional revenue in Australia, a transformational IMC acquisition that expands assets and backlog, solid free cash flow generation and modest net debt reduction. These positives were tempered by notable near-term execution challenges — chiefly a $13 million net Fargo cost adjustment and weather impacts that reduced margins in Q4 (EBITDA margin down to 23%), plus elevated depreciation and a regulatory delay on IMC close. Management provided clear operational priorities, targeted Australia cost savings (3%–5%), and reiterated 2026 guidance (midpoint revenue $1.6B, adjusted EBITDA $400M, FCF $120M) with expected improvement in H2, indicating confidence in recovery and growth. On balance the highlights point to continued growth and improved momentum while the lowlights appear manageable and largely transitory.Positive Updates
Record Australia Q4 Revenue
Australia revenue of $176 million in Q4 was a quarterly record for the region despite wet weather, contributing to combined Q4 revenue of $344 million.
Negative Updates
Fargo Project Retroactive Cost Adjustment
A life-to-date net adjustment of $13 million (gross increase to cost ~ $50 million) was recorded in Q4 related to Fargo (project ~85% complete), materially reducing headline EBITDA to $78 million for the quarter.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Australia Q4 Revenue
Australia revenue of $176 million in Q4 was a quarterly record for the region despite wet weather, contributing to combined Q4 revenue of $344 million.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
The company reiterated 2026 guidance of combined revenue with a $1.6 billion midpoint, adjusted EBITDA of $400 million and free cash flow of $120 million, citing a backlog of ~$3.9 billion (≈$1.2 billion secured for 2026) and a $12.6 billion total bid pipeline (≈$4.6 billion in active tender); management expects a stable H1 broadly in line with Q4 run rates (Q4 combined revenue $344 million; Australia $176 million) and meaningful H2 improvement as IMC synergies, equipment commissioning and seasonality take hold (historically H2 ≈20% higher revenue). Q4 metrics highlighted include EBITDA $78 million (23% margin, impacted by a $13 million Fargo life‑to‑date adjustment), gross profit run‑rate ~15%, direct G&A $15 million (4.9% of revenue), depreciation at 18% of revenue, adjusted EPS loss $0.14, average cash interest 6.4%, net cash from operations before working capital $56 million, Q4 free cash flow $57 million (H2 ’25 FCF $103 million), net debt $878 million (down $26 million) with net leverage 2.4x and senior secured 1.4x, ~40% of net debt as high‑yield, and cash liquidity of $422 million.North American Construction Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
62
Positive
Balance Sheet
48
Neutral
Cash Flow
44
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.28B | 1.17B | 957.22M | 769.54M | 654.14M |
| Gross Profit | 160.33M | 210.05M | 154.22M | 101.55M | 90.42M |
| EBITDA | 329.19M | 283.06M | 252.59M | 227.18M | 186.74M |
| Net Income | 33.83M | 44.09M | 63.14M | 67.37M | 51.41M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.82B | 1.69B | 1.55B | 979.51M | 869.28M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 100.13M | 77.88M | 88.61M | 69.14M | 16.60M |
| Total Debt | 921.58M | 825.10M | 717.05M | 435.39M | 395.23M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.36B | 1.31B | 1.19B | 673.59M | 590.82M |
| Stockholders Equity | 456.62M | 388.90M | 356.65M | 305.92M | 278.46M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -26.55M | -66.74M | 66.90M | 53.94M | 51.39M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 254.54M | 217.61M | 270.39M | 169.20M | 165.18M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -264.83M | -274.68M | -244.88M | -97.47M | -99.27M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 31.11M | 45.98M | -7.75M | -19.49M | -92.76M |
North American Construction Group Technical Analysis
Negative
18.52
Price Trends
20.79
Negative
20.21
Negative
20.25
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.73
Positive
42.71
Neutral
22.61
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NOA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 18.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 19.73, below the 50-day MA of 20.79, and below the 200-day MA of 20.25, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.73 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 42.71 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 22.61 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:NOA.
North American Construction Group Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (65)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
79 Outperform | C$781.22M | 7.49 | 12.57% | 2.57% | 15.58% | 47.55% | |
76 Outperform | C$1.51B | 10.23 | 18.06% | 3.57% | 9.24% | 6.35% | |
71 Outperform | C$646.17M | 12.37 | 3.06% | ― | -8.13% | -28.00% | |
65 Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% | |
60 Neutral | C$98.91M | 31.76 | 4.11% | ― | -7.13% | -60.41% | |
53 Neutral | C$528.14M | 16.74 | 7.88% | 2.56% | 8.24% | -36.88% |
* Energy Sector Average
TSE:NOA
North American Construction Group
18.52
-4.31
-18.86%
TSE:CFW
Calfrac Well Services
6.47
2.71
71.94%
TSE:E
Enterprise
1.21
-0.17
-12.32%
TSE:TOT
Total Energy Services
21.44
11.52
116.17%
TSE:TCW
Trican Well Service
7.19
2.55
54.92%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.