New Gold (NGD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$10.83B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.52M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 31.4
• Beta (1Y): 2.91
• Revenue Growth: 48.70%
• EPS Growth: 1718.41%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,337
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.34
• Shares Outstanding: 791,726,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 3,322,906
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,518,354
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$17.23
• Price Target Upside: 25.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 3
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 73 Outperform
• Price Target: C$18.00 ▲(31.58% Upside)

The score is driven by strong operating profitability and a stable balance sheet, reinforced by a very constructive earnings update (record free cash flow, cost reductions, and accelerated debt repayment). Offsetting factors are weaker trailing free-cash-flow metrics, overbought technical signals, and a relatively high P/E with no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors

Strong operating profitability

Sustained high gross and EBITDA margins indicate durable operational efficiency and cost control across assets. Robust margins provide a persistent buffer against commodity price swings, support reinvestment into mines, and underpin long-term earnings stability and cash generation.

Record free cash flow and accelerated debt paydown

A substantial one-off FCF print paired with proactive $260M debt repayment materially strengthens financial flexibility. This improved cash generation and lower leverage enhance capacity to fund growth projects and absorb future commodity or operational volatility over multiple quarters.

Manageable leverage and strong ROE

Low net leverage and a high ROE reflect disciplined capital allocation and an equity-heavy capital structure. This balanced sheet profile supports strategic investment, exploration budgets, and resilience through commodity cycles without over-reliance on external financing.

Negative Factors

Weak trailing free cash flow growth

Persistent negative FCF growth and low FCF conversion versus net income signal structural cash conversion issues. If sustained, limited free cash constrains dividends, buybacks, and organic growth funding, increasing dependence on debt or equity for capital-intensive projects.

Higher cash costs and growth capex needs

Ongoing underground development raises structural operating costs and capex requirements for several quarters. While necessary for long-term throughput, elevated sustaining and growth spend pressures margins and free cash generation, delaying full benefit realization from new zones.

Acquisition introduces integration and execution risk

A takeover is a fundamental change that creates multi-quarter integration risk: strategic reprioritization, potential asset rationalization, management turnover, and uncertain synergy capture. These factors can disrupt operations and capital plans during the transition.

New Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Gold Inc., an intermediate gold mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. The company's principal operating properties include 100% interests in the Rainy River mine located in Ontario, Canada; and New Afton mine situated in British Columbia, Canada. It also operates the Cerro San Pedro mine in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

New Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and copper produced at its mining operations. The company sells its gold and copper commodities at market prices, which are influenced by global supply and demand dynamics. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, copper concentrate, and by-products from its mining activities. Additionally, New Gold has established significant partnerships with various stakeholders, including supply chain agreements and strategic alliances, that help optimize its operations and enhance profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency, cost management strategies, and the fluctuating prices of gold and copper in the international markets.

New Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement is strong (revenue +19.08% TTM; net margin 20.10%; EBITDA margin 47.93%) and the balance sheet is stable (debt-to-equity 0.32; ROE 22.38%). The main offset is weaker cash conversion, with free cash flow growth at -182.20% and low FCF-to-net income (8.21%).

Income Statement

New Gold has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 19.08% increase in TTM, supported by a solid gross profit margin of 40.40%. The net profit margin improved significantly to 20.10%, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 27.33% and 47.93%, respectively, showcasing efficient operational management. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and profitability improvement.

Balance Sheet

The company's debt-to-equity ratio stands at a manageable 0.32, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. Return on equity is strong at 22.38%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 52.34%, suggesting a solid equity base relative to total assets. The balance sheet shows stability with a focus on maintaining a healthy capital structure.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow is strong, with a coverage ratio of 1.93, indicating sufficient cash generation to cover net income. However, free cash flow growth is negative at -182.20%, which could signal potential cash flow management challenges. The free cash flow to net income ratio is low at 8.21%, suggesting limited free cash flow relative to net income. While operating cash flow remains robust, the decline in free cash flow warrants attention.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.23B	924.50M	786.50M	604.40M	745.50M	643.40M
Gross Profit	508.36M	240.70M	336.10M	78.10M	172.50M	110.40M
EBITDA	589.77M	339.10M	182.90M	177.50M	322.90M	167.70M
Net Income	247.72M	102.60M	-64.50M	-66.80M	140.60M	-79.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.37B	2.00B	2.29B	2.24B	2.48B	2.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	124.18M	110.30M	192.60M	236.40M	541.00M	231.70M
Total Debt	397.01M	399.70M	401.20M	396.20M	501.70M	508.70M
Total Liabilities	1.13B	951.50M	1.50B	1.28B	1.52B	1.46B
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	1.05B	789.20M	959.50M	955.90M	789.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.45M	121.70M	21.70M	-102.20M	76.40M	10.60M
Operating Cash Flow	660.77M	392.80M	287.60M	190.70M	323.70M	294.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-586.48M	-263.40M	-234.00M	-281.90M	57.40M	-173.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.12M	-207.80M	-68.60M	-185.00M	-86.50M	-21.90M

New Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 13.68
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NGD, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 13.68 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.08, above the 50-day MA of 12.77, and above the 200-day MA of 8.78, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 1.04 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.68 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 34.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NGD.

New Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
OGC	78 Outperform	C$10.08B	18.20	21.15%	0.42%	51.00%	532.40%
OR	76 Outperform	$10.09B	49.06	11.26%	0.55%	37.22%	―
NGD	73 Outperform	C$10.83B	31.36	22.29%	―	48.70%	1718.41%
ELD	72 Outperform	$11.71B	21.08	9.54%	―	44.88%	38.67%
BTO	67 Neutral	C$8.86B	28.59	6.90%	1.71%	34.31%	―
ARTG	62 Neutral	$9.12B	41.82	28.16%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

New Gold Corporate Events

New Gold and Coeur Shareholders Back All-Stock Deal to Create North American Precious Metals Player

New Gold shareholders have overwhelmingly approved a plan of arrangement under which a wholly owned subsidiary of U.S.-listed Coeur Mining will acquire all outstanding New Gold common shares, with more than 99% of votes cast in favour of the transaction. Coeur stockholders also granted the necessary approvals, paving the way for the creation of a new, all-North American precious metals producer that combines similar safety-focused cultures and financial profiles, and is expected to offer exploration upside, longer mine lives, and enhanced net asset value per share. Pending final court and regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions, the deal is anticipated to close in the first half of 2026, with New Gold shareholders set to receive 0.4959 Coeur shares for each New Gold share and ultimately hold about 38% of the combined company, while Coeur shareholders will own roughly 62%.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$19.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold Hits 2025 Production Targets and Generates Over $530 Million in Free Cash Flow

New Gold reported strong fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 operational results, achieving its production guidance with consolidated output of 353,772 ounces of gold and 50.1 million pounds of copper, alongside record-low safety incident rates. The company generated $240 million in free cash flow in the fourth quarter and $532 million for the full year after significant capital investments in growth initiatives, notably the C-Zone cave construction at New Afton and the Rainy River underground Main, both of which are progressing well. Rainy River delivered standout free cash flow and reached the top end of its gold production guidance, while New Afton met its gold and copper targets. New Gold also increased its exploration spending by about 27% above initial guidance to capitalize on promising drill results, positioning the company for another strong operational year in 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$15.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

ISS Backs New Gold–Coeur Mining Deal as Board Urges Shareholder Support

New Gold said that proxy advisory firm Institutional Shareholder Services has recommended that its shareholders vote in favour of the planned all-share acquisition by Coeur Mining, under which a Coeur subsidiary would acquire all outstanding New Gold common shares. The deal terms provide New Gold investors with 0.4959 Coeur shares for each New Gold share, resulting in Coeur and New Gold shareholders owning roughly 62% and 38% of the combined company, respectively; ISS cited expected operational synergies, a stronger balance sheet, and improved liquidity as reasons for its support, and New Gold’s board is unanimously urging shareholders to back the transaction at a special meeting set for January 27, 2026.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$12.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

Coeur Mining Acquires New Gold, Forming North American Precious Metals Leader

Coeur Mining, Inc. has announced the acquisition of New Gold Inc., creating a new North American senior precious metals producer. The combined entity will have seven operations across North America, with an expected EBITDA of $3 billion and free cash flow of $2 billion by 2026. This strategic move is expected to enhance Coeur’s financial position, expand its growth pipeline, and strengthen its market presence, making it one of the top ten largest precious metals companies globally. The transaction is anticipated to be highly accretive, with significant benefits for shareholders, including increased liquidity and potential inclusion in major U.S. indexes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.