New Gold (NGD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $5.42B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.57M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 27.1
• Beta (1Y): 1.72
• Revenue Growth: 31.32%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,337
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 60
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.15
• Shares Outstanding: 791,700,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,548,525
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,573,562
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 1.10
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 5.79
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.65
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 13.87
• 1Y Price Target: $7.70
• Price Target Upside: 11.09% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 9

• Rating: 68 Neutral
• Price Target: C$7.00 ▲(1.01% Upside)

New Gold's strong earnings call performance and positive technical indicators are key strengths. However, concerns about valuation and cash flow management weigh on the overall score.

Positive Factors

Future Opportunities

The company continues to have opportunities to extend mine life from the prospective K-Zone, HW Zone, and D-Zone which could provide additional upside in the future.

Mine Life Extension

Rainy River's mine life was extended by 5 years due to the Phase 5 pushback, despite a decrease in mineral reserves.

Mineral Reserves

New Afton's Copper and Gold Mineral Reserve inventories increased, allowing the company to extend the mine life by one year.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow

Near-term free cash flow is expected to decrease compared to previous estimates.

Production Guidance

The updated 3-year production guidance featured a ~10% decrease for 2025.

New Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Gold Inc. (NGD) is a Canadian mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties with a focus on gold production. The company operates primarily in North America and has interests in various mining projects, including the Rainy River and New Afton mines. New Gold aims to create value for its shareholders by leveraging its assets in gold and copper mining, while adhering to sustainable and responsible mining practices.

How the Company Makes Money

New Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and copper. The company operates its mines, extracting these minerals and selling them to the market, where prices fluctuate based on global supply and demand. Key revenue streams include gold sales from the Rainy River and New Afton mines, as well as copper production from these operations. Additionally, New Gold benefits from hedging strategies that can stabilize cash flows against commodity price volatility. The company may also engage in partnerships and joint ventures to enhance project development and operational efficiencies, contributing to its overall earnings.

New Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

New Gold demonstrates strong financial performance with solid revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cash flow management. The company maintains a balanced leverage profile, although historical volatility in net income and free cash flow may pose potential risks. Overall, the financials suggest a well-managed operation with a positive trajectory.

Income Statement

The company shows strong revenue growth with a 4.5% increase in TTM revenue compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin is healthy at 28.3%, and net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.7% from prior losses, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 20.1% and 39.9% respectively, pointing to efficient operational management. However, past volatility in net income presents potential risk.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.49, indicating a balanced leverage level. ROE is a strong 12.5%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 48.8%, showing a solid equity base. While the balance sheet is stable, the company's net debt position has fluctuated, which could lead to financial instability if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is impressive at 3.44, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has grown significantly, with a 31.6% increase in TTM free cash flow, showcasing effective capital expenditure management. The company's ability to convert income into cash is a key strength, although past free cash flow volatility should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.03B	924.50M	786.50M	604.40M	745.50M	643.40M
Gross Profit	359.10M	240.70M	336.10M	78.10M	172.50M	110.40M
EBITDA	430.90M	339.10M	182.90M	177.50M	322.90M	167.70M
Net Income	144.90M	102.60M	-64.50M	-66.80M	140.60M	-79.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.46B	2.00B	2.29B	2.24B	2.48B	2.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	233.00M	110.30M	192.60M	236.40M	541.00M	231.70M
Total Debt	658.80M	399.70M	401.20M	396.20M	501.70M	508.70M
Total Liabilities	1.36B	951.50M	1.50B	1.28B	1.52B	1.46B
Stockholders Equity	1.10B	1.05B	789.20M	959.50M	955.90M	789.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	-77.20M	121.70M	21.70M	-102.20M	76.40M	10.60M
Operating Cash Flow	507.90M	392.80M	287.60M	190.70M	323.70M	294.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-579.10M	-263.40M	-234.00M	-281.90M	57.40M	-173.20M
Financing Cash Flow	112.80M	-207.80M	-68.60M	-185.00M	-86.50M	-21.90M

New Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.93
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NGD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.93 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.21, above the 50-day MA of 6.44, and above the 200-day MA of 4.92, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.12 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 67.36 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.03 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NGD.

New Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SSL	77 Outperform	$4.29B	89.71	2.41%	0.55%	17.31%	19.28%
EQX	73 Outperform	C$7.11B	11.17	8.27%	―	60.05%	―
Sector *	70 Outperform	¥179.17B	11.24	5.69%	3.09%	2.75%	-12.76%
NGD	68 Neutral	$5.42B	27.10	14.11%	―	31.32%	―
TXG	67 Neutral	$3.66B	12.42	12.84%	―	11.46%	105.47%
OLA	67 Neutral	C$4.39B	137.65	4.89%	―	123.03%	―
ARTG	62 Neutral	$6.25B	―	12.71%	―	―	―

New Gold Corporate Events

New Gold Achieves Record Cash Flow in Q2 2025, Driven by Strong Mine Performance

New Gold Inc. reported strong financial results for the second quarter of 2025, driven by increased production at its Rainy River and New Afton mines. The company achieved record free cash flow, with Rainy River contributing significantly to this success. New Afton’s B3 cave exceeded expectations, and Rainy River saw a record production month in June, indicating a positive outlook for the remainder of the year. Exploration efforts continue to support organic growth, with significant drilling activities at both sites. The company remains on track to meet its annual production guidance, underscoring its robust operational performance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold to Announce Q2 2025 Results and Host Conference Call

New Gold Inc. announced it will release its second quarter 2025 operational and financial results on July 28, 2025, before the market opens. The company will also host an earnings conference call and webcast on the same day. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, which could impact its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold to Redeem Remaining 7.50% Senior Notes

New Gold Inc. has announced the redemption of its remaining $111 million 7.50% Senior Notes due 2027, scheduled for July 15, 2025. This move is funded by proceeds from a previous senior notes offering and cash on hand, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and enhancing its market standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold Unveils 2024 Sustainability Achievements

New Gold has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in sustainability practices and performance. The report, aligned with global standards, showcases a 7.8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the total recordable injury frequency rate, reflecting the company’s commitment to safety and environmental responsibility. Additionally, New Gold emphasizes its dedication to community engagement and local employment, with substantial investments in local communities and a significant portion of its workforce being Indigenous and locally hired.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.