New Gold (NGD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $11.03B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.33M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 33.6
• Beta (1Y): 2.68
• Revenue Growth: 48.70%
• EPS Growth: 1718.41%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,337
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 58
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 791,726,900
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 2,044,143
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,327,491
• PEG Ratio: -0.08
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.87
• Price to Sales (P/S): 2.13
• P/FCF Ratio: 16.21
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.76
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 6.78
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 16.39
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 14.13
• 1Y Price Target: $13.01
• Price Target Upside: -11.04% Downside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 78 Outperform
• Price Target: C$15.00 ▲(2.60% Upside)

New Gold's strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and significant corporate events contribute to a robust overall stock score. The earnings call further supports a positive outlook, despite some valuation concerns and cash flow management challenges.

Positive Factors

Production Scale and Operational Execution

Record Rainy River output and New Afton’s B3 cave beating expectations show durable operational execution and scale. Higher steady production improves unit cost leverage, supports sustained cash generation and lowers per-ounce fixed costs across cycles over the next 2-6 months.

Margin Strength and Profitability

Robust gross and operating margins reflect efficient mine operations and cost control. Sustained mid-to-high margin profiles provide resilience to commodity price swings, enabling reinvestment and debt reduction while supporting long-term profitability and internal funding of projects.

Balance Sheet Stability and Capital Structure

A conservative leverage profile and strong ROE indicate financial flexibility. Combined with recent ahead-of-schedule debt repayments, the balance sheet can support ongoing development, absorb cyclical shocks, and fund exploration or brownfield growth without excessive refinancing risk.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Conversion Weakness

Material negative FCF growth despite strong operating cash flow signals capital intensity or working capital strains. Weak FCF conversion limits sustainable discretionary spend, shareholder returns, and buffers for downturns absent further operational or capex optimization.

Rising Cash Costs and Capital Intensity

Ongoing underground development raises sustained AISC and growth capex needs. Even as it supports future production, elevated unit costs and heavier capex schedules can compress long-term free cash flow and delay returns on investment during the multi-quarter ramp period.

Acquisition and Integration / Delisting Risk

The definitive acquisition introduces sustained execution and integration risk, governance change, and loss of standalone strategic optionality. Regulatory and shareholder approvals and cross-border integration could divert management focus and create transitional operational or cultural frictions into H1 2026.

New Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Gold Inc., an intermediate gold mining company, engages in the exploration, development, and operation of mineral properties. It primarily explores for gold, silver, and copper deposits. The company's principal operating properties include 100% interests in the Rainy River mine located in Ontario, Canada; and New Afton mine situated in British Columbia, Canada. It also operates the Cerro San Pedro mine in San Luis Potosí, Mexico. The company was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

New Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and copper produced at its mining operations. The company sells its gold and copper commodities at market prices, which are influenced by global supply and demand dynamics. Key revenue streams include the sale of gold bullion, copper concentrate, and by-products from its mining activities. Additionally, New Gold has established significant partnerships with various stakeholders, including supply chain agreements and strategic alliances, that help optimize its operations and enhance profitability. Factors contributing to its earnings include operational efficiency, cost management strategies, and the fluctuating prices of gold and copper in the international markets.

New Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

New Gold shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a stable balance sheet. However, rising debt levels and negative free cash flow growth are concerns that need addressing.

Income Statement

New Gold's income statement shows a strong performance with a notable revenue growth rate of 9.58% in the TTM period. The gross profit margin improved to 33.66%, and the net profit margin increased to 14.11%, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect positive trends, suggesting efficient operations. However, the company has experienced fluctuations in profitability in previous years, which could pose risks if not managed well.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of New Gold reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60 in the TTM period, which is manageable but has increased from previous years. The return on equity stands at 13.96%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure. However, the increasing debt levels could be a concern if not controlled.

Cash Flow

New Gold's cash flow statement indicates challenges with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -148.19% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.15, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow management issues. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to support future growth.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.23B	924.50M	786.50M	604.40M	745.50M	643.40M
Gross Profit	508.36M	240.70M	336.10M	78.10M	172.50M	110.40M
EBITDA	589.77M	339.10M	182.90M	177.50M	322.90M	167.70M
Net Income	247.72M	102.60M	-64.50M	-66.80M	140.60M	-79.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.37B	2.00B	2.29B	2.24B	2.48B	2.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	124.18M	110.30M	192.60M	236.40M	541.00M	231.70M
Total Debt	397.01M	399.70M	401.20M	396.20M	501.70M	508.70M
Total Liabilities	1.13B	951.50M	1.50B	1.28B	1.52B	1.46B
Stockholders Equity	1.24B	1.05B	789.20M	959.50M	955.90M	789.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	63.45M	121.70M	21.70M	-102.20M	76.40M	10.60M
Operating Cash Flow	660.77M	392.80M	287.60M	190.70M	323.70M	294.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-586.48M	-263.40M	-234.00M	-281.90M	57.40M	-173.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-84.12M	-207.80M	-68.60M	-185.00M	-86.50M	-21.90M

New Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 14.62
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NGD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 14.62 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 12.36, above the 50-day MA of 11.15, and above the 200-day MA of 8.02, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.76 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 76.57 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 95.85 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NGD.

New Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
ELD	79 Outperform	C$10.69B	21.96	9.54%	―	44.88%	38.67%
NGD	78 Outperform	$11.03B	33.64	22.29%	―	48.70%	1718.41%
OGC	78 Outperform	C$9.65B	17.42	21.15%	0.42%	51.00%	532.40%
OR	75 Outperform	C$10.10B	49.08	11.26%	0.55%	37.22%	―
BTO	67 Neutral	$8.50B	27.44	6.90%	1.71%	34.31%	―
ARTG	62 Neutral	C$8.68B	43.43	28.16%	―	―	―
Sector *	61 Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%

New Gold Corporate Events

Coeur Mining Acquires New Gold, Forming North American Precious Metals Leader

Coeur Mining, Inc. has announced the acquisition of New Gold Inc., creating a new North American senior precious metals producer. The combined entity will have seven operations across North America, with an expected EBITDA of $3 billion and free cash flow of $2 billion by 2026. This strategic move is expected to enhance Coeur’s financial position, expand its growth pipeline, and strengthen its market presence, making it one of the top ten largest precious metals companies globally. The transaction is anticipated to be highly accretive, with significant benefits for shareholders, including increased liquidity and potential inclusion in major U.S. indexes.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$12.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.