New Gold (NGD) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.36B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 2.07M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 28.8
• Beta (1Y): 1.73
• Revenue Growth: 23.61%
• EPS Growth: N/A
• Country: CA
• Employees: 1,337
• Sector: Basic Materials
• Sector Strength: 69
• Industry: Gold
• EPS (TTM): 0.03
• Shares Outstanding: 791,400,000
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 1,916,396
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 2,067,115
• PEG Ratio: 1.28
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.71
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 23.95
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.77
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 1.17
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 15.50
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 3.45
• 1Y Price Target: C$7.14
• Price Target Upside: 7.28% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7

• Rating: 77 Outperform
• Price Target: C$7.50 ▲(12.61%Upside)

New Gold's overall stock score reflects its solid financial performance and strong technical indicators, which are slightly offset by valuation concerns and recent production challenges. The company's proactive corporate events also positively impact its market position, suggesting a well-managed operation with growth potential.

Positive Factors

Future Free Cash Flow

The company is finishing a capex heavy period but should generate significant free cash flow in future years.

Mine Life Extension

New Afton's Copper and Gold Mineral Reserve inventories increased, allowing the company to extend the mine life by one year.

Negative Factors

Free Cash Flow Expectations

Near-term free cash flow is expected to decrease compared to previous estimates.

Production Guidance

The updated 3-year production guidance featured a ~10% decrease for 2025.

New Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

New Gold Inc. (NGD) is a Canadian-focused intermediate gold mining company engaged in the development and operation of mineral properties. The company operates primarily in North America, with a strong focus on sustainable mining practices. Its core products include gold, silver, and copper, which are extracted from its portfolio of mines, including the Rainy River Mine in Ontario, Canada, and the New Afton Mine in British Columbia, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

New Gold Inc. generates revenue primarily through the extraction and sale of gold, silver, and copper. The company owns and operates mines where it extracts these precious metals and sells them on the global market. Revenue is largely driven by the market prices of these metals, which can fluctuate based on supply and demand dynamics, economic conditions, and geopolitical factors. In addition to its mining operations, New Gold may also enter into strategic partnerships or joint ventures to optimize its operations and reduce costs. The company focuses on maintaining efficient production processes and exploring new mineral deposits to ensure long-term sustainability and profitability.

New Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary

New Gold demonstrates solid financial performance with strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cash flow management. Despite a balanced leverage profile, historical volatility in net income and free cash flow may pose potential risks.

Income Statement

The company shows strong revenue growth with a 4.5% increase in TTM revenue compared to the previous year. Gross profit margin is healthy at 28.3%, and net profit margin has improved significantly to 13.7% from prior losses, indicating enhanced profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins are robust at 20.1% and 39.9% respectively, pointing to efficient operational management. However, past volatility in net income presents potential risk.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.49, indicating a balanced leverage level. ROE is a strong 12.5%, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is 48.8%, showing a solid equity base. While the balance sheet is stable, the company's net debt position has fluctuated, which could lead to financial instability if not managed properly.

Cash Flow

Operating cash flow to net income ratio is impressive at 3.44, indicating strong cash generation relative to net income. Free cash flow has grown significantly, with a 31.6% increase in TTM free cash flow, showcasing effective capital expenditure management. The company's ability to convert income into cash is a key strength, although past free cash flow volatility should be monitored.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	941.50M	924.50M	786.50M	604.40M	745.50M	643.40M
Gross Profit	266.60M	240.70M	336.10M	78.10M	172.50M	110.40M
EBITDA	375.90M	339.10M	182.90M	177.50M	322.90M	167.70M
Net Income	129.40M	102.60M	-64.50M	-66.80M	140.60M	-79.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	2.12B	2.00B	2.29B	2.24B	2.48B	2.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	219.60M	110.30M	192.60M	236.40M	541.00M	231.70M
Total Debt	509.30M	399.70M	401.20M	396.20M	501.70M	508.70M
Total Liabilities	1.09B	951.50M	1.50B	1.28B	1.52B	1.46B
Stockholders Equity	1.03B	1.05B	789.20M	959.50M	955.90M	789.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	160.20M	121.70M	21.70M	-102.20M	76.40M	10.60M
Operating Cash Flow	445.40M	392.80M	287.60M	190.70M	323.70M	294.80M
Investing Cash Flow	-278.50M	-263.40M	-234.00M	-281.90M	57.40M	-173.20M
Financing Cash Flow	-109.20M	-207.80M	-68.60M	-185.00M	-86.50M	-21.90M

New Gold Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 6.66
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NGD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 6.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.64, above the 50-day MA of 5.96, and above the 200-day MA of 4.59, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 57.74 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 51.37 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NGD.

New Gold Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NGD	77 Outperform	C$5.36B	28.84	14.62%	―	23.61%	―
TXG	73 Outperform	$3.83B	20.31	8.12%	―	20.97%	-24.55%
SSL	73 Outperform	$3.76B	93.91	2.05%	0.63%	6.23%	36.40%
OLA	69 Neutral	C$4.45B	40.45	-0.28%	―	72.95%	97.10%
EQX	67 Neutral	$5.97B	9.44	8.27%	―	60.05%	―
ARTG	62 Neutral	C$5.78B	―	-3.49%	―	―	-154.04%
Sector *	43 Neutral	AU$1.37B	-6.17	-40.62%	4.19%	-4.78%	-42.91%

New Gold Corporate Events

New Gold to Redeem Remaining 7.50% Senior Notes

New Gold Inc. has announced the redemption of its remaining $111 million 7.50% Senior Notes due 2027, scheduled for July 15, 2025. This move is funded by proceeds from a previous senior notes offering and cash on hand, potentially strengthening the company’s financial position and enhancing its market standing.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold Unveils 2024 Sustainability Achievements

New Gold has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant achievements in sustainability practices and performance. The report, aligned with global standards, showcases a 7.8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and a decrease in the total recordable injury frequency rate, reflecting the company’s commitment to safety and environmental responsibility. Additionally, New Gold emphasizes its dedication to community engagement and local employment, with substantial investments in local communities and a significant portion of its workforce being Indigenous and locally hired.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold Announces Board Election Results and Shareholder Approvals

New Gold Inc. announced the results of its Board of Directors election, with all nominees receiving overwhelming support from shareholders. The meeting also included the appointment of an auditor and a ‘Say on Pay’ advisory vote, both of which received strong approval. These results reflect shareholder confidence in New Gold’s leadership and strategic direction, potentially strengthening its position in the mining industry.

New Gold Completes Full Consolidation of New Afton Mine Cash Flow Interest

New Gold Inc. has completed the acquisition of the remaining 19.9% free cash flow interest in its New Afton Mine from the Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, consolidating its free cash flow interest to 100%. This consolidation is expected to enhance New Gold’s operational efficiency and financial performance, potentially strengthening its position in the mining industry.

New Gold Achieves Full Ownership of New Afton Mine Cash Flow Interest

New Gold Inc. has completed the acquisition of the remaining 19.9% free cash flow interest in its New Afton Mine from Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan. This consolidation to 100% ownership of the free cash flow interest strengthens New Gold’s operational control and financial benefits from the New Afton Mine, potentially enhancing its market position and value to stakeholders.

New Gold Achieves Strong Q1 2025 Results, Sets Stage for Production Ramp-Up

New Gold Inc. reported strong financial and operational results for the first quarter of 2025, achieving significant milestones that enhance its strategic objectives. The company increased its future free cash flow by consolidating its interest in New Afton to 100%, refinanced and extended its senior notes and credit facility, and delivered new Technical Reports with strong production profiles and lower costs. Operationally, New Gold exceeded planned production at New Afton due to higher B3 grades and is on track for a production increase at Rainy River. The company is advancing its exploration efforts, particularly targeting the K-Zone at New Afton and growth opportunities at Rainy River, which are expected to ramp up aggressively.

New Gold Consolidates Full Ownership of New Afton Mine

New Gold Inc. has announced its acquisition of the remaining 19.9% free cash flow interest in the New Afton Mine from Ontario Teachers’ Pension Plan, consolidating its ownership to 100%. This transaction, valued at $300 million, will be funded through cash on hand, borrowings, and a gold prepayment financing. The consolidation is expected to enhance New Gold’s financial performance by increasing its exposure to the mine’s cash flow, driven by anticipated production growth and cost improvements. The company also plans to invest in exploration activities to extend the mine’s life and increase its value. This strategic move is positioned to benefit shareholders by maximizing free cash flow without equity dilution.

New Gold to Release Q1 2025 Results and Host Conference Call

New Gold Inc. announced it will release its first quarter 2025 operational and financial results on April 29, 2025, followed by an earnings conference call and webcast on April 30, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides insights into the company’s financial health and operational performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.