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New Gold Inc (TSE:NGD)
:NGD
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New Gold (NGD) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:NGD

New Gold

(NYSE MKT:NGD)

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Neutral 69 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$10.50
▲(7.69% Upside)
New Gold's strong earnings call performance and operational improvements are the most significant factors driving the score. While financial performance shows growth, concerns about cash flow and debt levels persist. Technical analysis and valuation present a mixed picture, with moderate valuation and neutral technical indicators.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
Consistent revenue growth indicates effective market positioning and operational efficiency, supporting long-term business sustainability.
Cost Management
Effective cost management enhances profitability and competitiveness, allowing for better margins and financial health over time.
Debt Reduction
Proactive debt reduction strengthens the balance sheet, improving financial flexibility and reducing interest burden, supporting future growth.
Negative Factors
Rising Debt Levels
Increasing debt levels, if not managed, can strain financial resources, limiting the company's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Negative Free Cash Flow
Negative free cash flow indicates potential liquidity issues, hindering the company's ability to fund operations and growth without external financing.
High Cash Costs
High cash costs can pressure margins and profitability, potentially impacting the company's ability to sustain competitive advantage.

New Gold (NGD) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

New Gold Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNew Gold Inc. (NGD) is a Canadian mining company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, and development of mineral properties with a focus on gold production. The company operates primarily in North America and has interests in various mining projects, including the Rainy River and New Afton mines. New Gold aims to create value for its shareholders by leveraging its assets in gold and copper mining, while adhering to sustainable and responsible mining practices.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew Gold generates revenue primarily through the sale of gold and copper. The company operates its mines, extracting these minerals and selling them to the market, where prices fluctuate based on global supply and demand. Key revenue streams include gold sales from the Rainy River and New Afton mines, as well as copper production from these operations. Additionally, New Gold benefits from hedging strategies that can stabilize cash flows against commodity price volatility. The company may also engage in partnerships and joint ventures to enhance project development and operational efficiencies, contributing to its overall earnings.

New Gold Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Oct 28, 2025
(Q3-2025)
|
% Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Feb 12, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call emphasized significant production achievements and financial improvements, particularly in terms of cost reduction, free cash flow, and debt repayment. Safety milestones and exploration successes were also highlighted. However, there were concerns about increased cash costs and the initial lower grades at C-Zone. Overall, the call conveyed a strong positive outlook with minor challenges noted.
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Quarterly Production at Rainy River
Rainy River achieved a record quarterly production of over 100,000 ounces of gold, marking a 63% increase over the second quarter.
Significant Reduction in All-In Sustaining Costs
All-in sustaining costs reduced by $425 an ounce to $966 per ounce, with expectations to reduce further in the fourth quarter.
Record Free Cash Flow Generation
The company generated a record quarterly free cash flow of $205 million, with Rainy River contributing $183 million.
Debt Repayment Ahead of Schedule
Repayment of $260 million in debt, including the $150 million drawn on the credit facility, was completed one quarter ahead of plan.
Safety Milestones Achieved
Rainy River surpassed 1.5 million hours and New Afton surpassed 1 million hours worked without a lost time injury, with a low total recordable injury frequency rate of 0.61.
Strong Exploration Progress
Significant exploration achievements at New Afton's K-Zone and ongoing activities at Rainy River, with a full-year budget of $22 million for 63,000 meters of drilling.
Negative Updates
High Cash Costs and Capital Expenditures
Increased cash costs and growth capital expenditures related to underground development at Rainy River impacted financials, despite being necessary for future production growth.
Initial Lower Grades at C-Zone
Expectations of initial lower grades as C-Zone ramps up, which may impact short-term production metrics.
Company Guidance
During the New Gold Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Call, the company reported robust operational and financial performance, with significant improvements over the previous quarter. Rainy River achieved a record quarterly production of over 100,000 ounces of gold, marking a 63% increase from Q2, while New Afton's B3 cave continued to exceed expectations, with C-Zone development progressing well. The company produced approximately 115,200 ounces of gold and 12 million pounds of copper, with all-in sustaining costs (AISC) reduced by $425 an ounce to $966 per ounce. This resulted in a substantial AISC margin of $2,492 per ounce, given an average realized gold price of $3,458 per ounce. Record quarterly free cash flow reached $205 million, driven by Rainy River’s contribution of $183 million. New Gold also strengthened its balance sheet by repaying $260 million in debt, including an early repayment of $150 million on its credit facility. The company remains on track to meet its 2025 guidance objectives, with further reductions in AISC anticipated in the fourth quarter.

New Gold Financial Statement Overview

Summary
New Gold shows strong revenue growth and improved profitability, with a stable balance sheet. However, rising debt levels and negative free cash flow growth are concerns that need addressing.
Income Statement
75
Positive
New Gold's income statement shows a strong performance with a notable revenue growth rate of 9.58% in the TTM period. The gross profit margin improved to 33.66%, and the net profit margin increased to 14.11%, indicating enhanced profitability. The EBIT and EBITDA margins also reflect positive trends, suggesting efficient operations. However, the company has experienced fluctuations in profitability in previous years, which could pose risks if not managed well.
Balance Sheet
70
Positive
The balance sheet of New Gold reveals a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.60 in the TTM period, which is manageable but has increased from previous years. The return on equity stands at 13.96%, showing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio is stable, indicating a solid capital structure. However, the increasing debt levels could be a concern if not controlled.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
New Gold's cash flow statement indicates challenges with a negative free cash flow growth rate of -148.19% in the TTM period. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 1.15, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, highlighting cash flow management issues. The company needs to focus on improving free cash flow generation to support future growth.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue1.03B924.50M786.50M604.40M745.50M643.40M
Gross Profit359.10M240.70M336.10M78.10M172.50M110.40M
EBITDA430.90M339.10M182.90M177.50M322.90M167.70M
Net Income144.90M102.60M-64.50M-66.80M140.60M-79.30M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.46B2.00B2.29B2.24B2.48B2.25B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments233.00M110.30M192.60M236.40M541.00M231.70M
Total Debt658.80M399.70M401.20M396.20M501.70M508.70M
Total Liabilities1.36B951.50M1.50B1.28B1.52B1.46B
Stockholders Equity1.10B1.05B789.20M959.50M955.90M789.30M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-77.20M121.70M21.70M-102.20M76.40M10.60M
Operating Cash Flow507.90M392.80M287.60M190.70M323.70M294.80M
Investing Cash Flow-579.10M-263.40M-234.00M-281.90M57.40M-173.20M
Financing Cash Flow112.80M-207.80M-68.60M-185.00M-86.50M-21.90M

New Gold Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price9.75
Price Trends
50DMA
9.38
Positive
100DMA
7.98
Positive
200DMA
6.47
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.10
Positive
RSI
52.39
Neutral
STOCH
45.57
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NGD, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 9.75 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 9.64, above the 50-day MA of 9.38, and above the 200-day MA of 6.47, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.10 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.39 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 45.57 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NGD.

New Gold Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
71
Outperform
C$5.48B12.5617.29%5.33%143.67%
69
Neutral
2.41%0.50%17.31%19.28%
69
Neutral
C$7.59B22.4322.29%48.70%1718.41%
65
Neutral
$11.39B1.41%90.17%-91.76%
62
Neutral
$7.54B87.3228.16%
61
Neutral
$10.43B7.12-0.05%2.87%2.86%-36.73%
56
Neutral
C$4.38B138.064.89%123.03%
* Basic Materials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NGD
New Gold
9.75
5.82
148.09%
TSE:SSL
Sandstorm Gold
16.15
7.44
85.44%
TSE:OLA
Orla Mining
13.53
6.84
102.24%
TSE:TXG
Torex Gold Resources
60.25
29.51
96.00%
TSE:EQX
Equinox Gold
16.10
8.08
100.75%
TSE:ARTG
Artemis Gold
33.71
18.46
121.05%

New Gold Corporate Events

New Gold Inc. Reports Record Production and Cash Flow
Oct 30, 2025

New Gold Inc. is a Canadian-focused intermediate mining company that operates the New Afton copper-gold mine and the Rainy River gold mine. The company is committed to responsible and profitable mining practices for its shareholders and stakeholders.

New Gold Inc Shines in Latest Earnings Call
Oct 30, 2025

New Gold Inc’s latest earnings call conveyed a strong positive outlook, highlighting significant production achievements and financial improvements. The company emphasized its success in cost reduction, free cash flow generation, and debt repayment. Safety milestones and exploration successes were also noted, although there were concerns about increased cash costs and initial lower grades at the C-Zone. Overall, the sentiment was optimistic with minor challenges acknowledged.

New Gold Achieves Record Production and Cash Flow in Q3 2025
Oct 29, 2025

On October 28, 2025, New Gold Inc. announced its third-quarter results, highlighting record production and free cash flow driven by the Rainy River mine. The company reported a significant increase in gold production and a substantial improvement in free cash flow, allowing it to repay $260 million in debt. New Gold is on track to meet its annual guidance for gold and copper production, with expectations of continued strong performance in the fourth quarter. The company has also made progress on its C-Zone cave construction at New Afton, positioning itself for future growth and enhanced shareholder value.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Hold with a C$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold Inc. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Financial Results
Oct 28, 2025

On October 28, 2025, New Gold Inc. released its financial statements for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2025, reporting significant revenue growth compared to the previous year. The company achieved revenues of $462.5 million for the third quarter and $980 million for the nine months, reflecting a strong operational performance. Net earnings also saw a substantial increase, reaching $142.3 million for the third quarter and $194.2 million for the nine months. This financial performance underscores New Gold’s improved market positioning and operational efficiency, which could have positive implications for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Hold with a C$9.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

New Gold to Announce Q3 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Oct 9, 2025

On October 7, 2025, New Gold Inc. announced that it will release its third quarter 2025 operational and financial results after market close on October 28, 2025. The company will host an earnings conference call and webcast on October 29, 2025. This announcement is significant for stakeholders as it provides an opportunity to gain insights into the company’s recent performance and future outlook.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$7.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
New Gold to Announce Q3 2025 Results and Host Conference Call
Neutral
Oct 7, 2025

New Gold Inc. announced it will release its third quarter 2025 operational and financial results after market close on October 28, 2025, followed by an earnings conference call and webcast on October 29, 2025. This announcement is part of New Gold’s ongoing efforts to keep stakeholders informed about its financial performance, which is critical for maintaining investor confidence and supporting its market positioning as a key player in the gold and copper mining industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$7.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
New Gold Achieves Top Ranking on 2025 TSX30 List
Positive
Sep 9, 2025

New Gold Inc. has been recognized as a top performer on the Toronto Stock Exchange’s TSX30 list for 2025, ranking eleventh due to a significant 394% share price appreciation over the past three years. This achievement underscores New Gold’s substantial growth, positioning it well to increase production and reduce costs, thereby enhancing free cash flow and solidifying its status as a leading intermediate gold and copper producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$6.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
New Gold Announces Major Exploration Success at New Afton and Rainy River Mines
Positive
Sep 8, 2025

New Gold Inc. has announced significant exploration advancements at its New Afton and Rainy River mines, with the K-Zone at New Afton more than doubling in size due to new copper-gold porphyry mineralization discoveries. This expansion, along with ongoing drilling efforts, positions the company to potentially extend the operational life of its mines and improve resource estimates. The company plans to increase its exploration budget to further define the K-Zone’s potential, indicating a strategic focus on leveraging existing infrastructure for future development. These developments are expected to positively impact New Gold’s resource estimates and operational strategy, offering growth opportunities and potential benefits for stakeholders.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$6.85 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board Changes
New Gold Announces Departure of Board Member Christian Milau
Neutral
Aug 18, 2025

New Gold Inc. announced the resignation of Christian Milau from its Board of Directors, effective immediately, as he pursues other opportunities. During his tenure, the company engaged in significant corporate development activities and operational achievements, positioning itself as a leading intermediate gold producer.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NGD) stock is a Buy with a C$3.90 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on New Gold stock, see the TSE:NGD Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Oct 30, 2025