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NFI Group Inc (TSE:NFI)
TSX:NFI
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NFI Group Inc (NFI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:NFI

NFI Group Inc

(TSX:NFI)

Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
C$19.50
▲(3.61% Upside)
NFI Group Inc. shows strong demand and backlog, with improvements in financial metrics and refinancing efforts. However, significant financial challenges remain, including high leverage, negative profitability, and valuation concerns. Technical indicators are moderately positive, but the negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield suggest caution.
Positive Factors
Analyst Upgrade
Analyst upgrades NFI Group to Outperform and increases the target price to $23, indicating confidence in future performance.
Contract Wins and Debt Refinancing
NFI stock has been strong with contract wins and a recent debt refinancing, improving the company's financial backdrop.
Financial Performance
The easing of seat supplier issues should help move the company closer to its historical multiple range, indicating potential for improved financial performance.
Negative Factors
Leverage and Tariff Concerns
Elevated leverage and potential downside from upcoming tariffs remain concerns.
Near-term Risks
Near-term risk persists, including ongoing supplier issues, elevated leverage and potential tariff-related headwinds.
Supplier Issues and Tariffs
The company continues to face supplier-related seat issues and now, potential tariff impacts.

NFI Group Inc (NFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNFI Group Inc. (NFI) is a leading independent global bus manufacturer providing a comprehensive suite of mass transportation solutions. The company is based in Canada and operates across multiple segments including heavy-duty transit buses, motor coaches, and low-floor cutaway buses. NFI serves a wide range of customers including municipalities, transit agencies, and private operators, offering both traditional diesel-powered and zero-emission vehicles such as electric and hydrogen fuel cell buses.
How the Company Makes MoneyNFI Group Inc. generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of transit buses and motor coaches. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of new vehicles, aftermarket parts and services, and long-term service contracts. NFI has established significant partnerships with municipalities and transit agencies, often securing multi-year contracts that provide a steady flow of income. Additionally, as the transportation industry shifts towards sustainable solutions, NFI is capitalizing on the growing demand for electric and zero-emission vehicles, further contributing to its revenue growth.

NFI Group Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: -1.47%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
NFI's earnings call reflected a strong demand environment and significant improvements in financial metrics and supply chain health. However, challenges remain with a significant net loss due to non-recurring expenses, ongoing tariff impacts, and difficulties in the U.K. market. While the highlights show positive momentum and strategic refinancing, the lowlights indicate areas of concern that need to be addressed.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Demand and Backlog
In the first quarter, NFI recorded new orders of 822 EUs with 95% being firm orders. The total backlog is now worth USD 13.5 billion, showing strong demand, primarily driven by North American public transit and motor coach operators.
Improved Financial Metrics
NFI reported a 19% year-over-year increase in quarterly adjusted EBITDA, a $7.6 million improvement in adjusted net earnings, and a 7.9% increase in return on invested capital.
Successful Refinancing
NFI completed refinancing transactions which resulted in a new 4-year First Lien facility and a new 5-year $600 million Second Lien notes, increasing liquidity to $326.7 million and receiving a BB- rating from S&P and a B1 from Moody's.
Supply Chain Improvement
The number of high-risk suppliers has decreased significantly, with only one high-risk supplier remaining, showing improved supply chain health and better delivery performance.
Negative Updates
Significant Net Loss
NFI reported a quarterly net loss of $160.8 million with a loss per share of $1.35, impacted by several non-recurring and unusual expenses.
Challenges in the U.K. Market
The U.K. market demand for Alexander Dennis continues to be behind expectations, with challenges from non-U.K.-based bus OEMs, primarily from China.
Impact of Tariffs
NFI faces ongoing challenges from tariffs on imports of steel, aluminum, and certain goods, affecting manufacturing costs and cash flow timing.
Seat Supply Disruption
The disruption from a seat supplier continues to impact production, although improvements have been made, with the number of New Flyer buses missing seats down to 56 as of July 18.
Company Guidance
During NFI's Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call, the company highlighted significant year-over-year improvements across various financial metrics. Key figures include a 19% increase in quarterly adjusted EBITDA, a $7.6 million enhancement in adjusted net earnings, and a 7.9% rise in return on invested capital. The company reported new orders of 822 equivalent units (EUs) with a strong backlog totaling 16,198 EUs valued at $13.5 billion. The call also detailed a Q2 LTM book-to-bill ratio of 119.9% and an option backlog conversion rate of 74.9%. Additionally, NFI discussed its total liquidity, which stands at $326.7 million, bolstered by recent refinancing. The guidance for 2025 remains reaffirmed with projected revenues between $3.8 billion and $4.2 billion, and adjusted EBITDA in the range of $320 million to $360 million.

NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NFI Group Inc shows a mixed financial performance with positive revenue growth but ongoing profitability challenges. High leverage and negative net income impact financial stability and increase risk. While operational efficiencies are improving, cash flow management needs attention to ensure long-term financial health.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
NFI Group Inc has shown an increase in revenue from previous periods, with a TTM revenue of CAD 3.24 billion, indicating a positive growth trend. However, the company struggles with profitability as net income remains negative, affecting net profit margin. Gross profit margin and EBIT margin have improved, suggesting operational efficiency gains. The EBITDA margin reflects moderate operational performance, but the consistent net losses raise concerns about the company's ability to achieve profitability.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet displays a concerning debt-to-equity ratio, indicating high leverage, which poses a financial risk. Stockholders' equity has shown resilience, but the equity ratio remains moderate. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, which is a significant weakness in financial stability. While total assets have increased, high debt levels limit financial flexibility and increase financial risk.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
The cash flow statement highlights challenges in maintaining positive free cash flow. Despite an improving operating cash flow, the company still reports negative free cash flow, indicating insufficient cash generation to cover capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, suggesting operational cash generation exceeds accounting losses. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio underscores ongoing liquidity issues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.26B3.12B2.69B2.05B2.34B2.42B
Gross Profit389.25M349.44M220.76M49.13M235.59M199.25M
EBITDA73.36M220.29M47.69M-144.23M165.34M20.88M
Net Income-163.69M-3.30M-136.16M-276.38M-14.48M-157.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.96B2.91B2.70B2.59B2.60B2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments78.91M49.56M49.62M49.99M77.32M55.77M
Total Debt1.33B1.18B1.14B1.24B955.85M1.28B
Total Liabilities2.40B2.21B2.00B2.01B1.73B2.14B
Stockholders Equity557.79M707.75M702.91M577.15M871.77M620.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-101.02M-32.57M-100.80M-273.43M78.97M40.33M
Operating Cash Flow-56.56M15.34M-63.81M-241.85M115.23M66.06M
Investing Cash Flow-36.33M-34.63M-53.34M-24.53M-30.79M-38.48M
Financing Cash Flow93.72M20.75M117.84M238.28M-59.99M-37.00K

NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price18.82
Price Trends
50DMA
18.18
Positive
100DMA
15.67
Positive
200DMA
14.38
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.14
Positive
RSI
53.13
Neutral
STOCH
38.74
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.82 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.82, above the 50-day MA of 18.18, and above the 200-day MA of 14.38, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 53.13 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.74 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NFI.

NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
60
Neutral
C$4.69B7.3123.56%3.59%3.22%5.88%
53
Neutral
C$2.22B-26.25%9.12%-182.49%
51
Neutral
C$16.96M-1033.43%-23.11%23.98%
28
Underperform
$43.21M186.24%54.82%
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NFI
NFI Group Inc
18.82
-0.25
-1.31%
TSE:GPV
GreenPower Motor
0.58
-0.65
-52.85%
TSE:FHYD
First Hydrogen
0.57
0.15
37.35%

NFI Group Inc Corporate Events

Business Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Unveils 2024 Sustainability Achievements
Positive
Aug 12, 2025

NFI Group Inc. has released its 2024 Sustainability Report, highlighting significant strides in environmental practices, social initiatives, and system resilience. The report underscores NFI’s commitment to sustainability through its ‘A Better Product, A Better Workplace, A Better World’ pledge, showcasing record deliveries of zero-emission buses and substantial investments in workforce development. The company’s strategic focus on sustainability aims to drive long-term growth and create meaningful value for its stakeholders, reinforcing its position as a leader in sustainable mass mobility solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s Alexander Dennis Launches Las Vegas Facility for Double-Deck Bus Production
Positive
Aug 6, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Alexander Dennis, has opened a new manufacturing facility in Las Vegas, marking a significant milestone in the production of double-deck buses in the United States. This facility, which is the only one of its kind in the country, aims to boost Southern Nevada’s transportation and manufacturing industry by producing Enviro500 buses for the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada. The investment of $15.3 million highlights Alexander Dennis’s commitment to innovation and local economic development, with plans to increase production capacity and employment opportunities as demand grows.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$19.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NFI Group Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results with Revenue and Liquidity Gains
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

NFI Group Inc. reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, showing improvements in revenue, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and liquidity. The company achieved a revenue of $868.2 million, a 2% increase year-over-year, and a backlog of $13.5 billion, with 35.3% of the backlog comprising zero-emission buses. Despite a net loss of $160.8 million due to non-recurring items, NFI’s adjusted net earnings were $10.7 million. The company completed a refinancing process, enhancing its financial flexibility and positioning it to deliver on its backlog and improve cash flow. CEO Paul Soubry highlighted the strengthened balance sheet and operational improvements, particularly in the North American supply chain and UK market, as key to achieving their 2025 guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group’s New Flyer Secures Major Bus Order from Las Vegas RTC
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured an order for 46 Xcelsior CNG 40-foot transit buses from the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada (RTC). This order, supported by Federal Transit Administration funds, is part of a larger contract and highlights NFI’s ongoing partnership with RTC, whose fleet exclusively comprises NFI vehicles. The new buses, which emit significantly less nitrogen oxide than diesel engines, will contribute to cleaner air in Southern Nevada. This development underscores NFI’s commitment to sustainable transportation solutions and strengthens its position in the North American transit market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s MCI Secures Major Expansion Order from Metrolinx
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Motor Coach Industries (MCI), has secured an additional order from Metrolinx for 97 diesel commuter coaches, enhancing its leadership in North America’s commuter coach market. This order, which follows an initial purchase of 80 coaches, underscores MCI’s reputation for quality and reliability, supporting Metrolinx’s transit expansion in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area by replacing aging vehicles and improving regional transit access.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Unveils Extended Range for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus
Positive
Jul 17, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has launched an extended range option for its Xcelsior CHARGE FC™ hydrogen fuel cell-electric bus, adding up to 120 miles of range. This innovation, already successful in partnership with Humboldt Transit Authority, enhances operational flexibility and reduces refueling needs, positioning NFI as a leader in zero-emission bus technology. The extended range feature supports longer service routes and more demanding duty cycles, showcasing NFI’s commitment to clean transit innovation and sustainable transportation solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Secures Major Electric Bus Order from Ottawa’s OC Transpo
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

NFI Group’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has received a significant order from Ottawa’s OC Transpo for 124 Xcelsior Charge NG battery-electric buses, reinforcing OC Transpo’s commitment to sustainable transit. This order, part of New Flyer’s 2023 agreement with the Toronto Transit Commission, highlights NFI’s role in advancing public transit electrification in Canada, supported by local and federal funding, and marks a substantial step towards cleaner transportation in the National Capital Region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Secures Major Contract with Suffolk County Transit
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Suffolk County Transit has awarded a contract to NFI’s subsidiary, New Flyer, for up to 132 next-generation buses, including hybrid-electric and battery-electric models, to modernize its fleet over the next five years. This move strengthens the partnership between Suffolk County and New Flyer, highlighting the benefits of American manufacturing and job creation, while enhancing service reliability and operational efficiency for Suffolk County’s transit network.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
NFI Group to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced the release of its second quarter 2025 financial results scheduled for July 31, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on August 1, 2025. This announcement is part of NFI’s ongoing efforts to engage with stakeholders and provide transparency on its financial performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer to Deliver 55 Buses to Brampton Transit
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured an order to deliver 55 Xcelsior buses to Brampton Transit, enhancing the city’s fleet with hybrid-electric and clean-diesel models. This order supports Brampton’s efforts to build a more sustainable transit system and reinforces New Flyer’s position as a leader in providing innovative mobility solutions, which are crucial for urban growth and transit innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group’s New Flyer Secures Major Contract with NJ TRANSIT for 750 Buses
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured a significant contract with New Jersey Transit for up to 750 Xcelsior clean-diesel transit buses, marking one of the largest clean-diesel bus procurements in the company’s history. This contract, which includes an initial order for 200 buses and options for 550 more, will enhance NJ TRANSIT’s fleet, improving service reliability and efficiency. The deal underscores New Flyer’s commitment to providing high-capacity, reliable transit solutions and supports NJ TRANSIT’s goal of a fully modernized bus fleet by 2031, benefiting regional mobility and passenger experience.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Completes $600 Million Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

NFI Group Inc. has successfully completed a $600 million private offering of second lien senior secured notes, which will be used to repay existing indebtedness and extend its first lien senior credit facility. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance NFI’s liquidity and strengthen its financial position, potentially impacting its market competitiveness and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alexander Dennis Announces UK Manufacturing Strategy Overhaul
Negative
Jun 11, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Alexander Dennis Limited, has announced a consultation on a new UK manufacturing strategy, which involves consolidating its bus body manufacturing operations into a single site in Scarborough, England. This move, driven by changing market dynamics, will potentially place up to 400 roles at risk of redundancy and impact the domestic supply chain. The strategy aims to lower costs, increase efficiency, and enhance financial sustainability. Alexander Dennis is also restructuring key customer support teams to focus on quality and reliability. The announcement highlights challenges in the UK policy environment, which the company believes does not incentivize local content and job creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
NFI Group Inc. Prices $600 Million Notes Offering to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
May 30, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced the pricing of a $600 million second lien notes offering through its subsidiary, New Flyer Holdings, Inc. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing indebtedness, including portions of the First Lien Senior Credit Facility, and to cover related fees and expenses. This financial maneuver is expected to extend the company’s credit facility and enhance its liquidity, potentially strengthening NFI’s market position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Launches $600 Million Note Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
May 28, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced a private offering of $600 million in second lien senior secured notes through its subsidiary, New Flyer Holdings, Inc. The proceeds will be used to repay existing indebtedness and extend the company’s first lien senior credit facility to 2029. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance NFI’s liquidity and operational flexibility, positioning it well in the competitive global bus manufacturing industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Elects New Board of Directors, Reinforces Commitment to Sustainable Mobility
Positive
May 12, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced the election of ten directors to its Board during the annual and special meeting of shareholders. The election results reflect strong support for the nominees, indicating confidence in the company’s leadership as it continues to focus on sustainable transportation solutions. This development is expected to reinforce NFI’s strategic direction and commitment to enabling more livable cities through clean and connected mobility solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 19, 2025