NFI Group Inc (TSE:NFI)
TSX:NFI
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NFI Group Inc
(TSX:NFI)
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Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
C$18.50
▲(1.20% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/13/26
The score is driven primarily by improving cash generation and better liquidity/leverage trends, supported by a strong backlog and management guidance for continued growth. These positives are offset by weak profitability, high leverage/declining equity, and bearish technical momentum, with the battery-recall warranty provision a key near-term overhang.
Positive Factors
Backlog & order conversion
A large, multi-billion backlog and >100% LTM book-to-bill give durable revenue visibility and production cadence. High option conversion rates improve forecastability, supporting multi-quarter manufacturing planning and future aftermarket revenues tied to delivered fleets.
Negative Factors
High leverage and shrinking equity
Elevated debt and a declining equity base reduce balance-sheet resilience and increase sensitivity to demand shocks. High leverage constrains strategic flexibility, raises refinancing risk, and magnifies the impact of any further losses or cost overruns over the next several quarters.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Backlog & order conversion
A large, multi-billion backlog and >100% LTM book-to-bill give durable revenue visibility and production cadence. High option conversion rates improve forecastability, supporting multi-quarter manufacturing planning and future aftermarket revenues tied to delivered fleets.
Read all positive factors
NFI Group Inc (NFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.18B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)383.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.55
Revenue Growth14.40%
EPS Growth-1117.18%
CountryCA
Employees8,876
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.70
Shares Outstanding119,099,945
10 Day Avg. Volume251,504
30 Day Avg. Volume383,334
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio9.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$23.50Price Target Upside28.56% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering5
EPS Forecast (FY)1.17
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.09B
NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations...
How the Company Makes Money
NFI primarily makes money from (1) selling buses and coaches and (2) generating recurring aftermarket revenue tied to the installed base of vehicles it has delivered.
1) Vehicle sales (manufacturing revenue): A significant portion of revenue com...
NFI Group Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Apr 30, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant improvements in financial performance, backlog strength, and supply chain stability. However, the battery recall posed a substantial challenge, with associated costs and operational impacts. Despite this setback, the company's strong backlog and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook for future growth.Positive Updates
Strong Backlog and Order Conversion
Secured 644 equivalent units in new orders with a 108.5% LTM book-to-bill ratio and a 71.8% option conversion rate. Total backlog now stands at 15,606 equivalent units worth USD 13.2 billion.
Negative Updates
Battery Recall Impact
A recall affecting approximately 700 buses due to battery issues led to a $229.9 million warranty provision. Campaign expected to take 18-24 months.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Backlog and Order Conversion
Secured 644 equivalent units in new orders with a 108.5% LTM book-to-bill ratio and a 71.8% option conversion rate. Total backlog now stands at 15,606 equivalent units worth USD 13.2 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During NFI's 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results Call, the company provided detailed guidance on several key metrics. They reported a 52% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA and a $12.8 million improvement in free cash flow, with liquidity increasing by $240.2 million to reach $386 million by the quarter's end. The total leverage improved to 4.28x, a full turn improvement since the end of 2024. NFI secured 644 equivalent units in new orders, achieving a 108.5% LTM book-to-bill ratio and a strong 71.8% option conversion rate. The total backlog now stands at 15,606 equivalent units, valued at USD 13.2 billion. However, the quarter faced challenges due to a $229.9 million warranty provision related to a battery recall affecting approximately 700 buses, primarily New Flyer models. Despite these setbacks, the company expects continuous growth in revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and net earnings as they move into the fourth quarter and beyond.NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
42
Neutral
Cash Flow
63
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 3.68B | 3.12B | 2.69B | 2.05B | 2.34B |
| Gross Profit | 275.03M | 349.44M | 220.76M | 49.13M | 235.59M |
| EBITDA | 89.67M | 220.29M | 47.69M | -144.23M | 165.34M |
| Net Income | -144.61M | -3.30M | -136.16M | -276.38M | -14.48M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.27B | 2.91B | 2.70B | 2.59B | 2.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 118.33M | 49.56M | 49.62M | 49.99M | 77.32M |
| Total Debt | 1.29B | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.24B | 955.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.68B | 2.21B | 2.00B | 2.01B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 585.38M | 707.75M | 702.91M | 577.15M | 871.77M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 142.24M | -32.57M | -100.80M | -273.43M | 78.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 176.71M | 15.34M | -63.81M | -241.85M | 115.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -78.00M | -34.63M | -53.34M | -24.53M | -30.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -28.81M | 20.75M | 117.84M | 238.28M | -59.99M |
NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis
Positive
18.28
Price Trends
17.61
Positive
16.12
Positive
16.64
Positive
Market Momentum
0.45
Negative
51.87
Neutral
49.38
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 18.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.00, above the 50-day MA of 17.61, and above the 200-day MA of 16.64, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.45 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 51.87 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 49.38 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NFI.
NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
77 Outperform | C$2.63B | 14.22 | 10.69% | 7.11% | 3.19% | -0.26% | |
70 Outperform | C$5.15B | 8.51 | 9.92% | 1.32% | -5.33% | -57.58% | |
69 Neutral | C$284.56M | 13.48 | 6.05% | 6.21% | -3.53% | -17.19% | |
63 Neutral | C$674.01M | 7.04 | 7.13% | 1.93% | -7.25% | -143.07% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
53 Neutral | C$7.41B | 25.78 | 54.95% | 0.86% | -5.14% | -87.15% | |
50 Neutral | C$2.18B | -9.31 | -24.33% | ― | 14.40% | -1117.18% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
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NFI Group Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NFI Names Rob Marion President as It Re-establishes MCI as Standalone Unit
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
NFI Group has appointed long-time executive Rob Marion as President of its Motor Coach Industries division, restoring MCI as a dedicated business unit after it was previously combined with New Flyer during the pandemic. Marion, a three-decade comp...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI’s Alexander Dennis Unveils Reshaped Scottish Bus Manufacturing Strategy
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
NFI’s subsidiary Alexander Dennis, a major UK bus builder, is proposing a new Scottish manufacturing strategy that would convert its Larbert plant into a chassis manufacturing hub for low- and zero-emission buses while closing its legacy Fal...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Opens All-Canadian Bus Manufacturing Facility in Winnipeg
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
NFI Group has officially opened New Flyer’s new Customer Acceptance and Delivery facility in Winnipeg, enabling complete start-to-finish Canadian production of heavy-duty transit buses, including zero-emission models, for the first time in 1...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
New Flyer Wins 100-Bus Hybrid and Electric Order from Washington Metro
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group, has secured an order from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority for 75 Xcelsior hybrid-electric and 25 Xcelsior CHARGE NG battery-electric forty-foot buses. The purchase draws on New Fl...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Lands $56 Million Low-Emission Bus Order from Southern Nevada RTC
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group, has secured an exercised option from the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada for 50 additional Xcelsior compressed natural gas buses—19 sixty-foot and 31 forty-foot models...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Wins $56 Million RTC Nevada Order for 50 Low-Emission Buses
Positive
Feb 5, 2026
New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group Inc., has secured an order from the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada for 50 additional Xcelsior compressed natural gas buses—19 articulated 60-foot units and 31 standard 40...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Wins Additional Order as NJ TRANSIT Expands Bus Fleet Modernization
Positive
Jan 29, 2026
NFI Group’s subsidiary New Flyer has secured an additional order from New Jersey Transit for 375 Xcelsior 40-foot clean-diesel buses, completing the 550-bus base order under a multi-phase fleet replacement program that began with a 2024 cont...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NFI Group Sets March 2026 Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call
Neutral
Jan 28, 2026
NFI Group Inc. announced it will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results after markets close on March 11, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast with management on March 12, 2026, to review the results and take questions from in...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.