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NFI Group Inc (TSE:NFI)
TSX:NFI
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NFI Group Inc (NFI) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:NFI

NFI Group Inc

(TSX:NFI)

Rating:62Neutral
Price Target:
C$20.00
▲(4.71%Upside)
NFI Group's overall stock score reflects a mixed financial performance with positive technical trends and optimistic earnings outlook. While valuation remains a concern due to negative earnings, strategic corporate events and momentum in technical indicators provide a balanced view, suggesting cautious optimism.
Positive Factors
Analyst Recommendation
Analyst upgrades NFI Group to Outperform and increases the target price to $23, indicating confidence in future performance.
Financial Performance
The easing of seat supplier issues should help move the company closer to its historical multiple range, indicating potential for improved financial performance.
Negative Factors
Operational Challenges
NFI's financial results are expected to show some continued noise due to internal restructuring and seat supplier impacts.
Supply Chain Issues
Seating supply issues persist, although the company expects a recovery in 2H/25.

NFI Group Inc (NFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations. The company offers heavy-duty transit buses under the New Flyer name; single and double-deck buses under the Alexander Dennis Limited brand name; motor coaches under Plaxton and MCI brand names; low-floor cutaway and medium-duty buses under the ARBOC brand; and aftermarket parts under the NFI Parts brand name, as well as articulated buses. It also provides zero-emission vehicles, including battery-electric buses, motor coaches, hydrogen fuel-cell buses, and electric trolleys. In addition, company offers post-sale services, including part distribution, field services, support documentation, training, and special projects. The company was formerly known as New Flyer Industries Inc. and changed its name to NFI Group Inc. in May 2018. NFI Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyNFI Group Inc. generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and sale of transit buses and motor coaches. The company's key revenue streams include the sale of new vehicles, aftermarket parts and services, and long-term service contracts. NFI has established significant partnerships with municipalities and transit agencies, often securing multi-year contracts that provide a steady flow of income. Additionally, as the transportation industry shifts towards sustainable solutions, NFI is capitalizing on the growing demand for electric and zero-emission vehicles, further contributing to its revenue growth.

NFI Group Inc Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Jul 31, 2025
(Q2-2025)
|
% Change Since: 0.00%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 12, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mix of strong demand and backlog growth with significant challenges in the U.K. market and supply chain disruptions impacting net earnings. The successful refinancing and liquidity improvement were positive, but the restructuring and impairment costs in the U.K. market were notable lowlights.
Q2-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Demand and Backlog
New orders of 822 EUs with 95% firm orders, and a total backlog of 16,198 equivalent units worth USD 13.5 billion. The Q2 LTM book-to-bill ratio was 119.9%, showcasing strong demand driven by government funding in North America.
Improvement in Adjusted EBITDA
A 19% year-over-year increase in quarterly adjusted EBITDA, a $7.6 million improvement in adjusted net earnings, and a 7.9% increase in return on invested capital.
Successful Debt Refinancing
Completed the refinancing of First and Second Lien debt, leading to increased liquidity of $326.7 million and improved credit ratings.
Reduction in Supply Chain Risk
Only one high-risk supplier remains, down from 50 in 2022, reflecting improved supply chain health and management.
Negative Updates
U.K. Market Challenges
Faced with competitive pressures and cost advantages of non-U.K. OEMs, leading to a restructuring provision, goodwill impairment, and tax asset write-downs for Alexander Dennis.
Supply Chain Disruption Cost
A $6.7 million adjustment related to seat supplier disruption affecting manufacturing labor and overhead.
Net Loss and Restructuring Expenses
Reported a quarterly net loss of $160.8 million with significant non-cash impairments and restructuring provisions impacting earnings.
Company Guidance
During the NFI Group's Second Quarter 2025 Financial Results Call, the company reported several positive financial metrics, including a 19% year-over-year increase in quarterly adjusted EBITDA and a $7.6 million improvement in adjusted net earnings. The return on invested capital increased by 7.9%, and the total liquidity reached $326.7 million, largely due to a recent refinancing. The company also highlighted a strong demand environment with new orders of 822 equivalent units (EUs), 95% of which were firm orders, contributing to a total backlog of 16,198 EUs valued at $13.5 billion. The book-to-bill ratio was 119.9%, and the option backlog conversion rate was 74.9% on an LTM basis. The company also mentioned an improvement in supply chain health, reducing high-risk suppliers to just one. Despite facing certain non-recurring expenses and unusual items, such as a $160.8 million net loss, NFI reaffirmed its 2025 guidance, projecting revenues between $3.8 billion to $4.2 billion and adjusted EBITDA ranging from $320 million to $360 million.

NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary
NFI Group Inc shows a mixed financial performance with positive revenue growth but ongoing profitability challenges. High leverage and negative net income impact financial stability and increase risk. While operational efficiencies are improving, cash flow management needs attention to ensure long-term financial health. Continued focus on reducing debt and achieving consistent profitability will be crucial for future resilience.
Income Statement
55
Neutral
NFI Group Inc has shown an increase in revenue from previous periods, with a TTM revenue of CAD 3.24 billion, indicating a positive growth trend. However, the company struggles with profitability as net income remains negative, affecting net profit margin. Gross profit margin and EBIT margin have improved, suggesting operational efficiency gains. The EBITDA margin reflects moderate operational performance, but the consistent net losses raise concerns about the company's ability to achieve profitability.
Balance Sheet
45
Neutral
The balance sheet displays a concerning debt-to-equity ratio, indicating high leverage, which poses a financial risk. Stockholders' equity has shown resilience, but the equity ratio remains moderate. Return on equity is negative due to persistent net losses, which is a significant weakness in financial stability. While total assets have increased, high debt levels limit financial flexibility and increase financial risk.
Cash Flow
50
Neutral
The cash flow statement highlights challenges in maintaining positive free cash flow. Despite an improving operating cash flow, the company still reports negative free cash flow, indicating insufficient cash generation to cover capital expenditures. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is favorable, suggesting operational cash generation exceeds accounting losses. However, the negative free cash flow to net income ratio underscores ongoing liquidity issues.
BreakdownDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue3.12B2.69B2.05B2.34B2.42B
Gross Profit349.44M220.76M49.13M235.59M199.25M
EBITDA220.29M47.69M-144.23M165.34M20.88M
Net Income-3.30M-136.16M-276.38M-14.48M-157.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets2.91B2.70B2.59B2.60B2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments49.56M49.62M49.99M77.32M55.77M
Total Debt1.18B1.14B1.24B955.85M1.28B
Total Liabilities2.21B2.00B2.01B1.73B2.14B
Stockholders Equity707.75M702.91M577.15M871.77M620.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-32.57M-100.80M-273.43M78.97M40.33M
Operating Cash Flow15.34M-63.81M-241.85M115.23M66.06M
Investing Cash Flow-34.63M-53.34M-24.53M-30.79M-38.48M
Financing Cash Flow20.75M117.84M238.28M-59.99M-37.00K

NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price19.10
Price Trends
50DMA
17.18
Positive
100DMA
14.70
Positive
200DMA
14.22
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.63
Positive
RSI
60.66
Neutral
STOCH
25.32
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 19.1 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 18.84, above the 50-day MA of 17.18, and above the 200-day MA of 14.22, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.63 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 60.66 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 25.32 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NFI.

NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
AU$3.00B28.744.69%4.86%2.32%-33.09%
62
Neutral
C$2.27B-0.03%15.99%99.83%
44
Neutral
C$16.96M-388.48%-57.55%-31.45%
$34.29M
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:NFI
NFI Group Inc
19.10
0.25
1.33%
TSE:GPV
GreenPower Motor
0.58
-0.77
-57.04%
FHYDF
First Hydrogen
0.49
0.16
48.48%

NFI Group Inc Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NFI Group Reports Q2 2025 Financial Results with Revenue and Liquidity Gains
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

NFI Group Inc. reported its second quarter 2025 financial results, showing improvements in revenue, gross margin, adjusted EBITDA, and liquidity. The company achieved a revenue of $868.2 million, a 2% increase year-over-year, and a backlog of $13.5 billion, with 35.3% of the backlog comprising zero-emission buses. Despite a net loss of $160.8 million due to non-recurring items, NFI’s adjusted net earnings were $10.7 million. The company completed a refinancing process, enhancing its financial flexibility and positioning it to deliver on its backlog and improve cash flow. CEO Paul Soubry highlighted the strengthened balance sheet and operational improvements, particularly in the North American supply chain and UK market, as key to achieving their 2025 guidance.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group’s New Flyer Secures Major Bus Order from Las Vegas RTC
Positive
Jul 31, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured an order for 46 Xcelsior CNG 40-foot transit buses from the Regional Transportation Commission of Southern Nevada (RTC). This order, supported by Federal Transit Administration funds, is part of a larger contract and highlights NFI’s ongoing partnership with RTC, whose fleet exclusively comprises NFI vehicles. The new buses, which emit significantly less nitrogen oxide than diesel engines, will contribute to cleaner air in Southern Nevada. This development underscores NFI’s commitment to sustainable transportation solutions and strengthens its position in the North American transit market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s MCI Secures Major Expansion Order from Metrolinx
Positive
Jul 28, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Motor Coach Industries (MCI), has secured an additional order from Metrolinx for 97 diesel commuter coaches, enhancing its leadership in North America’s commuter coach market. This order, which follows an initial purchase of 80 coaches, underscores MCI’s reputation for quality and reliability, supporting Metrolinx’s transit expansion in the Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area by replacing aging vehicles and improving regional transit access.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Unveils Extended Range for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Bus
Positive
Jul 17, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has launched an extended range option for its Xcelsior CHARGE FC™ hydrogen fuel cell-electric bus, adding up to 120 miles of range. This innovation, already successful in partnership with Humboldt Transit Authority, enhances operational flexibility and reduces refueling needs, positioning NFI as a leader in zero-emission bus technology. The extended range feature supports longer service routes and more demanding duty cycles, showcasing NFI’s commitment to clean transit innovation and sustainable transportation solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Secures Major Electric Bus Order from Ottawa’s OC Transpo
Positive
Jul 9, 2025

NFI Group’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has received a significant order from Ottawa’s OC Transpo for 124 Xcelsior Charge NG battery-electric buses, reinforcing OC Transpo’s commitment to sustainable transit. This order, part of New Flyer’s 2023 agreement with the Toronto Transit Commission, highlights NFI’s role in advancing public transit electrification in Canada, supported by local and federal funding, and marks a substantial step towards cleaner transportation in the National Capital Region.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer Secures Major Contract with Suffolk County Transit
Positive
Jul 7, 2025

Suffolk County Transit has awarded a contract to NFI’s subsidiary, New Flyer, for up to 132 next-generation buses, including hybrid-electric and battery-electric models, to modernize its fleet over the next five years. This move strengthens the partnership between Suffolk County and New Flyer, highlighting the benefits of American manufacturing and job creation, while enhancing service reliability and operational efficiency for Suffolk County’s transit network.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Financial Disclosures
NFI Group to Announce Q2 2025 Financial Results
Neutral
Jun 30, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced the release of its second quarter 2025 financial results scheduled for July 31, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast on August 1, 2025. This announcement is part of NFI’s ongoing efforts to engage with stakeholders and provide transparency on its financial performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$22.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI’s New Flyer to Deliver 55 Buses to Brampton Transit
Positive
Jun 23, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured an order to deliver 55 Xcelsior buses to Brampton Transit, enhancing the city’s fleet with hybrid-electric and clean-diesel models. This order supports Brampton’s efforts to build a more sustainable transit system and reinforces New Flyer’s position as a leader in providing innovative mobility solutions, which are crucial for urban growth and transit innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group’s New Flyer Secures Major Contract with NJ TRANSIT for 750 Buses
Positive
Jun 16, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer, has secured a significant contract with New Jersey Transit for up to 750 Xcelsior clean-diesel transit buses, marking one of the largest clean-diesel bus procurements in the company’s history. This contract, which includes an initial order for 200 buses and options for 550 more, will enhance NJ TRANSIT’s fleet, improving service reliability and efficiency. The deal underscores New Flyer’s commitment to providing high-capacity, reliable transit solutions and supports NJ TRANSIT’s goal of a fully modernized bus fleet by 2031, benefiting regional mobility and passenger experience.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Completes $600 Million Notes Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
Jun 13, 2025

NFI Group Inc. has successfully completed a $600 million private offering of second lien senior secured notes, which will be used to repay existing indebtedness and extend its first lien senior credit facility. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance NFI’s liquidity and strengthen its financial position, potentially impacting its market competitiveness and stakeholder confidence.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and Strategy
Alexander Dennis Announces UK Manufacturing Strategy Overhaul
Negative
Jun 11, 2025

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, Alexander Dennis Limited, has announced a consultation on a new UK manufacturing strategy, which involves consolidating its bus body manufacturing operations into a single site in Scarborough, England. This move, driven by changing market dynamics, will potentially place up to 400 roles at risk of redundancy and impact the domestic supply chain. The strategy aims to lower costs, increase efficiency, and enhance financial sustainability. Alexander Dennis is also restructuring key customer support teams to focus on quality and reliability. The announcement highlights challenges in the UK policy environment, which the company believes does not incentivize local content and job creation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and Financing
NFI Group Inc. Prices $600 Million Notes Offering to Enhance Liquidity
Positive
May 30, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced the pricing of a $600 million second lien notes offering through its subsidiary, New Flyer Holdings, Inc. The proceeds from this offering will be used to repay existing indebtedness, including portions of the First Lien Senior Credit Facility, and to cover related fees and expenses. This financial maneuver is expected to extend the company’s credit facility and enhance its liquidity, potentially strengthening NFI’s market position and operational flexibility.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Launches $600 Million Note Offering to Strengthen Financial Position
Positive
May 28, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced a private offering of $600 million in second lien senior secured notes through its subsidiary, New Flyer Holdings, Inc. The proceeds will be used to repay existing indebtedness and extend the company’s first lien senior credit facility to 2029. This strategic financial move is expected to enhance NFI’s liquidity and operational flexibility, positioning it well in the competitive global bus manufacturing industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Elects New Board of Directors, Reinforces Commitment to Sustainable Mobility
Positive
May 12, 2025

NFI Group Inc. announced the election of ten directors to its Board during the annual and special meeting of shareholders. The election results reflect strong support for the nominees, indicating confidence in the company’s leadership as it continues to focus on sustainable transportation solutions. This development is expected to reinforce NFI’s strategic direction and commitment to enabling more livable cities through clean and connected mobility solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$21.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
NFI Group Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results Amid Record Backlog
Positive
May 8, 2025

NFI Group Inc. reported its first quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a record backlog of $13.7 billion and improvements in revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and ROIC. The company delivered 1,028 equivalent units, with a notable portion being zero-emission buses. Despite challenges in seat supply impacting deliveries, NFI remains optimistic about its 2025 outlook, supported by a new credit agreement enhancing financial stability and flexibility. The company is adjusting operations in response to challenging market conditions in the UK.

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Secures $845 Million Credit Facility to Boost Flexibility
Positive
May 7, 2025

NFI Group Inc. has secured a new $845 million first lien senior credit facility, replacing its existing credit arrangements to enhance financial flexibility and liquidity. This move is aimed at supporting the company’s operational performance and addressing its record backlog, with the facility offering improved covenants and the potential for further refinancing opportunities.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Aug 01, 2025