NFI Group Inc (NFI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$1.97B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 383.33K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.76
• Revenue Growth: 14.40%
• EPS Growth: -1117.18%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 8,876
• Sector: Consumer Cyclical
• Sector Strength: 84
• Industry: Auto - Manufacturers
• EPS (TTM): 0.14
• Shares Outstanding: 119,092,660
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 251,504
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 383,334
• PEG Ratio: 3.31
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.51
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.34
• P/FCF Ratio: -32.86
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$20.67
• Price Target Upside: 24.97% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 4
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 52 Neutral
• Price Target: C$17.00 ▲(2.78% Upside)

NFI Group Inc's overall stock score is primarily influenced by its financial performance challenges, including high leverage and negative profitability. The technical analysis shows bullish momentum, but the stock is overbought. The earnings call provided a positive outlook despite the battery recall issue. Valuation remains a concern with a negative P/E ratio.

Positive Factors

Backlog and Order Conversion

A large, multi-year backlog and book-to-bill above 100% provide durable revenue visibility for manufacturing and aftermarket streams. High option conversion supports future production planning, steadier factory throughput, and sustained parts/service demand tied to delivered fleets over several years.

Recurring Aftermarket Revenue

Aftermarket parts, maintenance and lifecycle services tied to an expanding installed base create a recurring revenue stream less sensitive to vehicle-sales cycles. This supports more predictable margins and cash flow over the medium term as fleets require long-term service and parts replacement.

Improving EBITDA and Liquidity

Material EBITDA growth and a sizeable liquidity boost strengthen financial flexibility, enabling continued capex, warranty actions, and working-capital support. Improved cash-generation metrics reduce refinancing risk and provide runway to execute backlog and ZEB investments over the next 2–6 months.

Negative Factors

High Financial Leverage

Elevated leverage constrains strategic optionality and increases sensitivity to margin pressure or capex needs. High debt loads raise refinancing and interest coverage risks, making sustained profitability and cash flow generation critical to avoid balance-sheet stress over the medium term.

Battery Recall Warranty Hit

A large warranty provision and a multi‑year remediation campaign impose direct cash costs, operational distraction, and potential reputational damage. Extended repair timelines can suppress aftermarket pricing power and increase service burdens, pressuring margins and cash flow for multiple quarters.

Profitability & Cash Flow Strains

Severe FCF deterioration and negative operating-cashflow-to-income signal weak cash conversion despite revenue growth. Persistent negative margins force reliance on external financing or liquidity draws, limiting reinvestment and increasing vulnerability if vehicle-sales or aftermarket demand softens.

NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations. The company offers heavy-duty transit buses under the New Flyer name; single and double-deck buses under the Alexander Dennis Limited brand name; motor coaches under Plaxton and MCI brand names; low-floor cutaway and medium-duty buses under the ARBOC brand; and aftermarket parts under the NFI Parts brand name, as well as articulated buses. It also provides zero-emission vehicles, including battery-electric buses, motor coaches, hydrogen fuel-cell buses, and electric trolleys. In addition, company offers post-sale services, including part distribution, field services, support documentation, training, and special projects. The company was formerly known as New Flyer Industries Inc. and changed its name to NFI Group Inc. in May 2018. NFI Group Inc. was founded in 1930 and is headquartered in Winnipeg, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

NFI generates revenue primarily through the sale of buses and motor coaches, which includes both standard and specialized models tailored to customer requirements. Key revenue streams include new vehicle sales, aftermarket parts sales, and service contracts. The company also benefits from long-term contracts with public transit authorities, which provide a steady stream of income. Additionally, NFI has formed strategic partnerships with various technology providers to enhance its product offerings, particularly in the electric vehicle segment, which is increasingly in demand as transit agencies seek sustainable transportation solutions.

NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview

Summary

NFI Group Inc is experiencing revenue growth, but profitability and cash flow issues persist. The high leverage and negative returns on equity highlight financial risks. The company must focus on improving operational efficiency and managing debt to enhance overall financial health.

Income Statement

NFI Group Inc has shown a significant revenue growth rate of 15.36% in the TTM, indicating a positive trend in sales. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by a negative net profit margin of -5.02% and a negative EBIT margin. The gross profit margin has improved slightly over the years but remains relatively low at 11.95% in the TTM. Overall, while revenue is growing, the company needs to address its profitability issues.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 2.39 in the TTM, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses and inefficiencies. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high debt levels suggest a low equity proportion. The company needs to manage its debt levels to improve financial stability.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis shows a concerning decline in free cash flow growth, with a significant drop of -153.86% in the TTM. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating cash flow challenges relative to earnings. While the free cash flow to net income ratio is positive, it is primarily due to negative net income. The company needs to improve its cash generation capabilities.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	3.42B	3.12B	2.69B	2.05B	2.34B	2.42B
Gross Profit	189.46M	349.44M	220.76M	49.13M	235.59M	199.25M
EBITDA	-105.69M	220.29M	47.69M	-144.23M	165.34M	20.88M
Net Income	-287.70M	-3.30M	-136.16M	-276.38M	-14.48M	-157.74M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.03B	2.91B	2.70B	2.59B	2.60B	2.76B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	72.47M	49.56M	49.62M	49.99M	77.32M	55.77M
Total Debt	1.28B	1.18B	1.14B	1.24B	955.85M	1.28B
Total Liabilities	2.61B	2.21B	2.00B	2.01B	1.73B	2.14B
Stockholders Equity	416.92M	707.75M	702.91M	577.15M	871.77M	620.14M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	26.17M	-32.57M	-100.80M	-273.43M	78.97M	40.33M
Operating Cash Flow	73.01M	15.34M	-63.81M	-241.85M	115.23M	66.06M
Investing Cash Flow	-42.99M	-34.63M	-53.34M	-24.53M	-30.79M	-38.48M
Financing Cash Flow	-16.54M	20.75M	117.84M	238.28M	-59.99M	-37.00K

NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 16.54
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Positive
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.54 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 16.55, above the 50-day MA of 15.11, and above the 200-day MA of 15.79, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.44 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 55.01 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 30.04 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:NFI.

NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
WPK	77 Outperform	C$2.57B	13.76	10.45%	7.11%	3.19%	-0.26%
LNR	73 Outperform	C$5.15B	21.05	4.01%	1.32%	-5.33%	-57.58%
XTC	71 Outperform	C$265.09M	10.75	6.05%	6.21%	-3.53%	-17.19%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
NFI	52 Neutral	C$1.97B	-4.93	-52.38%	―	14.40%	-1117.18%
MRE	51 Neutral	C$699.21M	-17.18	-2.64%	1.93%	-7.25%	-143.07%
DOO	48 Neutral	C$7.54B	309.64	45.71%	0.86%	-5.14%	-87.15%

NFI Group Inc Corporate Events

NFI Group Sets March 2026 Date for Q4 2025 Results and Investor Call

NFI Group Inc. announced it will release its fourth quarter 2025 financial results after markets close on March 11, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast with management on March 12, 2026, to review the results and take questions from investors. The company is directing stakeholders to a webcast—where a detailed results presentation will be available—as well as a pre-registered phone option and a year-long replay, underscoring its efforts to maintain transparent communication with the market and provide broad access to its financial disclosures as it pursues its strategy in sustainable mass mobility solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$17.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Lifts Ownership Cap for Largest Shareholder Coliseum Capital

NFI Group’s board has amended its investment agreement with Coliseum Capital Management, allowing the company’s largest shareholder to increase its stake to as much as 25% of NFI’s outstanding common shares, up from the previous 20% cap, until the end of 2026. While NFI will not issue new shares or receive proceeds from any additional Coliseum purchases, the deal underscores Coliseum’s long-term confidence in NFI’s strategy and grants the investor greater influence, including a commitment to vote any incremental shares in line with management and the board, reinforcing board support and signaling stability for shareholders as the company pursues its growth and zero-emission mobility ambitions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$20.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Welcomes New CEO as Paul Soubry Retires

NFI Group Inc. has announced a leadership transition with Paul Soubry retiring after 16 years as CEO and John Sapp taking over as President and CEO starting January 1, 2026. The appointment of Sapp, who brings extensive aerospace and industrial expertise, is expected to drive operational performance, growth, and enhance stakeholder value. NFI’s board expressed strong confidence in Sapp’s abilities, signaling the company’s strategic direction towards strengthening customer focus and advancing innovative mobility solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Buy with a C$23.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Secures Settlement to Enhance Zero-Emission Bus Capabilities

NFI Group Inc. has reached a master settlement agreement with XALT Energy, LLC to address costs related to a recall of Generation 3 batteries and other XALT battery types. The settlement, which involves cash payments and the transfer of assets and personnel, will cover 75% to 80% of NFI’s original $229 million provision. This agreement will enhance NFI’s battery supply chain and support its zero-emission bus capabilities, while also positioning the company to introduce a second battery supplier in 2027. The settlement is expected to improve NFI’s financial liquidity and operational efficiency, with no impact on new vehicle production.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Secures $75 Million Order from OC Transpo for Clean-Diesel Buses

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer Industries Canada ULC, has secured an order from OC Transpo for 50 clean-diesel 60-foot buses, valued at approximately $75 million CAD. This order, part of a Metrolinx contract, aims to replace aging buses and enhance transit reliability in Ottawa. This marks the fourth order from Ottawa in two years, highlighting NFI’s strengthening presence in Canada and its ongoing partnership with OC Transpo. The order contributes to NFI’s Q2 backlog and underscores its role in supporting urban transit solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

NFI Group Reports Strong Q3 Results Amid Battery Recall Challenges

NFI Group Inc. reported significant improvements in its third-quarter financial results for 2025, with a notable increase in deliveries, revenue, and liquidity. Despite a net loss impacted by a battery recall, the company achieved a 52.1% year-over-year growth in Adjusted EBITDA and reported a strong backlog of $13.2 billion. The company is actively addressing the battery recall issue and is optimistic about future performance, expecting record Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter. Strategic initiatives, including a joint venture investment to stabilize supply chain operations, are expected to enhance operational consistency and support growth.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.

New Flyer Honored as Employer of the Year for Disability Inclusion

NFI Group Inc.’s subsidiary, New Flyer of America Inc., has been recognized as the Employer of the Year – Large Business by the Alabama Governor’s Committee on Employment of People with Disabilities. This accolade highlights New Flyer’s commitment to accessibility and support for employees with disabilities in Alabama, showcasing its inclusive practices and community partnerships that promote equitable employment opportunities.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:NFI) stock is a Hold with a C$13.50 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on NFI Group Inc stock, see the TSE:NFI Stock Forecast page.