NFI Group Inc (TSE:NFI)
TSX:NFI
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NFI Group Inc
(TSX:NFI)
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Rating:54Neutral
Price Target:
C$22.00
▲(8.11% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is held back primarily by weak financial performance (TTM revenue decline, continued losses, and high leverage), partially offset by positive technical momentum (price above key moving averages with supportive MACD) and a low P/E that suggests the stock is not priced aggressively on this metric.
Positive Factors
Product & Propulsion Diversity
NFI's multi-propulsion product lineup positions it to capture long-term fleet electrification and replacement cycles. Offering diesel, gas, hybrid and battery-electric buses reduces single-technology risk, supports broader tender eligibility, and helps win multi-year public transit contracts as fleets transition.
Negative Factors
Elevated Leverage
High and rising leverage constrains financial flexibility, increases interest expense vulnerability, and limits ability to pursue large contracts or capex without additional financing. In capital-intensive bus manufacturing, elevated debt raises refinancing and covenant risk during demand troughs.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Product & Propulsion Diversity
NFI's multi-propulsion product lineup positions it to capture long-term fleet electrification and replacement cycles. Offering diesel, gas, hybrid and battery-electric buses reduces single-technology risk, supports broader tender eligibility, and helps win multi-year public transit contracts as fleets transition.
Read all positive factors
NFI Group Inc (NFI) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)383.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E)36.3
Beta (1Y)0.49
Revenue Growth10.76%
EPS Growth-54615.38%
CountryCA
Employees8,876
SectorConsumer Cyclical
Sector Strength84
IndustryAuto - Manufacturers
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.02
Shares Outstanding119,113,860
10 Day Avg. Volume251,504
30 Day Avg. Volume383,334
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio>-0.01
Price to Book (P/B)2.30
Price to Sales (P/S)0.37
P/FCF Ratio9.46
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$26.43Price Target Upside29.87% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)1.09
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$4.00B
NFI Group Inc Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
NFI Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells buses in North America, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Asia Pacific, and internationally. It operates through two segments, Manufacturing Operations and Aftermarket Operations...
How the Company Makes Money
NFI makes money primarily through (1) selling new buses and coaches and (2) supporting those vehicles over their operating life via parts and services. Vehicle sales revenue is generated when transit agencies and private operators purchase buses/c...
NFI Group Inc Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Nov 06, 2025
(Q3-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted significant improvements in financial performance, backlog strength, and supply chain stability. However, the battery recall posed a substantial challenge, with associated costs and operational impacts. Despite this setback, the company's strong backlog and strategic initiatives provide a positive outlook for future growth.Positive Updates
Strong Backlog and Order Conversion
Secured 644 equivalent units in new orders with a 108.5% LTM book-to-bill ratio and a 71.8% option conversion rate. Total backlog now stands at 15,606 equivalent units worth USD 13.2 billion.
Negative Updates
Battery Recall Impact
A recall affecting approximately 700 buses due to battery issues led to a $229.9 million warranty provision. Campaign expected to take 18-24 months.
Read all updates
Q3-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Backlog and Order Conversion
Secured 644 equivalent units in new orders with a 108.5% LTM book-to-bill ratio and a 71.8% option conversion rate. Total backlog now stands at 15,606 equivalent units worth USD 13.2 billion.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
During NFI's 2025 Third Quarter Financial Results Call, the company provided detailed guidance on several key metrics. They reported a 52% year-over-year increase in adjusted EBITDA and a $12.8 million improvement in free cash flow, with liquidity increasing by $240.2 million to reach $386 million by the quarter's end. The total leverage improved to 4.28x, a full turn improvement since the end of 2024. NFI secured 644 equivalent units in new orders, achieving a 108.5% LTM book-to-bill ratio and a strong 71.8% option conversion rate. The total backlog now stands at 15,606 equivalent units, valued at USD 13.2 billion. However, the quarter faced challenges due to a $229.9 million warranty provision related to a battery recall affecting approximately 700 buses, primarily New Flyer models. Despite these setbacks, the company expects continuous growth in revenue, gross profit, adjusted EBITDA, free cash flow, and net earnings as they move into the fourth quarter and beyond.NFI Group Inc Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
34
Negative
Balance Sheet
38
Negative
Cash Flow
46
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.61B | 3.68B | 3.12B | 2.69B | 2.05B | 2.34B |
| Gross Profit | 310.46M | 275.03M | 349.44M | 220.76M | 49.13M | 235.59M |
| EBITDA | -26.27M | 89.67M | 220.29M | 47.69M | -144.23M | 165.34M |
| Net Income | -119.88M | -144.61M | -3.30M | -136.16M | -276.38M | -14.48M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.29B | 3.27B | 2.91B | 2.70B | 2.59B | 2.60B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 77.43M | 118.33M | 49.56M | 49.62M | 49.99M | 77.32M |
| Total Debt | 1.32B | 1.29B | 1.18B | 1.14B | 1.24B | 955.85M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.69B | 2.68B | 2.21B | 2.00B | 2.01B | 1.73B |
| Stockholders Equity | 598.13M | 585.38M | 707.75M | 702.91M | 577.15M | 871.77M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 40.04M | 142.24M | -32.57M | -100.80M | -273.43M | 78.97M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 81.85M | 176.71M | 15.34M | -63.81M | -241.85M | 115.23M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -91.55M | -78.00M | -34.63M | -53.34M | -24.53M | -30.79M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -27.95M | -28.81M | 20.75M | 117.84M | 238.28M | -59.99M |
NFI Group Inc Technical Analysis
Neutral
20.35
Price Trends
19.69
Positive
18.30
Positive
17.03
Positive
Market Momentum
0.23
Positive
43.18
Neutral
29.08
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:NFI, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 20.35 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 21.10, above the 50-day MA of 19.69, and above the 200-day MA of 17.03, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 43.18 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 29.08 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:NFI.
NFI Group Inc Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$5.55B | 5.79 | 10.37% | 1.32% | 2.38% | 149.43% | |
69 Neutral | C$283.86M | 12.39 | 6.05% | 6.21% | -2.28% | -7.56% | |
69 Neutral | C$736.65M | 6.02 | 7.74% | 1.93% | -1.63% | ― | |
67 Neutral | C$2.34B | 15.42 | 10.32% | 7.11% | -2.26% | -7.15% | |
61 Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% | |
54 Neutral | C$2.42B | 36.33 | -22.22% | ― | 10.76% | -54615.38% | |
53 Neutral | C$5.51B | 39.24 | 54.95% | 0.86% | 6.51% | ― |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
TSE:NFI
NFI Group Inc
20.28
5.28
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NFI Group Inc Corporate Events
Business Operations and Strategy
San Diego MTS Expands New Flyer Fleet With $64 Million CNG Bus Order
Positive
Apr 7, 2026
San Diego’s Metropolitan Transit System has extended its long-standing relationship with NFI subsidiary New Flyer by exercising an option for 73 additional compressed natural gas Xcelsior buses. The roughly $64 million order, placed under a ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
NFI Group Sets Q1 2026 Results Date and Refreshes Board Ahead of Shareholders’ Meeting
Positive
Apr 6, 2026
NFI Group Inc. will release its first-quarter 2026 financial results after market close on May 7, 2026, followed by a conference call and webcast on May 8 that will include a results presentation and QA with management. A replay of the call will b...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
NFI Names Rob Marion President as It Re-establishes MCI as Standalone Unit
Positive
Apr 2, 2026
NFI Group has appointed long-time executive Rob Marion as President of its Motor Coach Industries division, restoring MCI as a dedicated business unit after it was previously combined with New Flyer during the pandemic. Marion, a three-decade comp...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI’s Alexander Dennis Unveils Reshaped Scottish Bus Manufacturing Strategy
Neutral
Mar 31, 2026
NFI’s subsidiary Alexander Dennis, a major UK bus builder, is proposing a new Scottish manufacturing strategy that would convert its Larbert plant into a chassis manufacturing hub for low- and zero-emission buses while closing its legacy Fal...
Business Operations and Strategy
NFI Group Opens All-Canadian Bus Manufacturing Facility in Winnipeg
Positive
Mar 3, 2026
NFI Group has officially opened New Flyer’s new Customer Acceptance and Delivery facility in Winnipeg, enabling complete start-to-finish Canadian production of heavy-duty transit buses, including zero-emission models, for the first time in 1...
Business Operations and StrategyProduct-Related Announcements
New Flyer Wins 100-Bus Hybrid and Electric Order from Washington Metro
Positive
Feb 10, 2026
New Flyer of America, a subsidiary of NFI Group, has secured an order from the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority for 75 Xcelsior hybrid-electric and 25 Xcelsior CHARGE NG battery-electric forty-foot buses. The purchase draws on New Fl...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.