Manulife Financial Corp (TSE:MFC)
TSX:MFC
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Manulife Financial
(TSX:MFC)
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Rating:72Outperform
Price Target:
C$53.00
â–²(11.04% Upside)
Action:UpgradedDate:03/26/26
The score is driven primarily by improving fundamentals (recovered profitability, moderate leverage, stronger cash generation) and a constructive earnings-call outlook with solid capital returns and reaffirmed 2027 targets. This is moderated by mixed technical momentum (negative MACD, elevated stochastic) and some execution/volatility risks flagged on the call (Global WAM outflows and U.S. earnings pressure).
Positive Factors
Diversified geographic scale and strong new-business growth
Manulife's broad footprint across Canada, the U.S. and Asia plus sustained new-business CSM growth (>20% across segments) and improving NBV margins in Asia support durable premium and fee flows. Geographic diversification reduces single-market concentration, helping stabilize revenue and earnings over the next 2–6 months and into the medium term.
Negative Factors
Global WAM net outflows and asset-gathering vulnerability
Material net outflows in Global WAM, driven by large U.S. retirement plan redemptions and retail weakness, threaten recurring fee revenue and AUM-dependent margins. If outflows persist or reoccur, they will structurally reduce fee income, pressure EBITDA margins and complicate achievement of medium-term growth and profitability targets.
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Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Diversified geographic scale and strong new-business growth
Manulife's broad footprint across Canada, the U.S. and Asia plus sustained new-business CSM growth (>20% across segments) and improving NBV margins in Asia support durable premium and fee flows. Geographic diversification reduces single-market concentration, helping stabilize revenue and earnings over the next 2–6 months and into the medium term.
Read all positive factors
Manulife Financial (MFC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$80.03B
Dividend Yield3.49%
Average Volume (3M)7.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)14.7
Beta (1Y)0.93
Revenue Growth5.46%
EPS Growth10.52%
CountryCA
Employees37,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)1.12
Shares Outstanding1,676,743,000
10 Day Avg. Volume4,917,289
30 Day Avg. Volume7,361,274
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio1.82
Price to Book (P/B)1.67
Price to Sales (P/S)1.60
P/FCF Ratio2.64
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$56.03Price Target Upside17.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)4.56
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$37.47B
Manulife Financial Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Manulife Financial Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides financial products and services in Asia, Canada, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through Wealth and Asset Management Businesses; Insurance and An...
How the Company Makes Money
Manulife makes money primarily through a combination of (1) insurance underwriting and policy-related income, (2) investment income on assets it manages (both for its own general account and for customers), and (3) fee-based revenue from wealth an...
Manulife Financial Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 11, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a predominantly positive outlook: Manulife delivered record core earnings, strong new business CSM/NBV growth across Asia and other segments, generated remittances above expectations, returned significant capital to shareholders, strengthened balance sheet metrics, and advanced strategic and AI initiatives. Notable challenges included meaningful net outflows in Global WAM for the quarter, ALDA-related and hedge accounting charges that reduced net income, lower investment spreads and a material decline in U.S. core earnings (−22% YoY). Management characterized adverse U.S. mortality experience as short-term variability and emphasized diversified, capital-efficient businesses and a clear path to 2027 targets. Overall, positive operational and capital outcomes outweigh the quarter-specific market and investment headwinds.Positive Updates
Strong New Business CSM and NBV Growth
New business CSM growth exceeded 20% in each insurance segment (sixth consecutive quarter >20%), with full-year new business CSM growth >20% in multiple markets including Hong Kong, Japan, Mainland China and Singapore. Asia NBV margin expanded to 41.2% (up 5.5 percentage points YoY); Hong Kong Q4 NBV margin rose to 52.4% from 39.7% in Q4 2024 (+12.7 pp). U.S. new business CSM grew 34% YoY.
Negative Updates
Global WAM Net Outflows
Global WAM reported net outflows of $9.5 billion in the quarter, driven by several large U.S. retirement plan redemptions and net outflows in North American retail and Canada Wealth, partially offset by institutional flows including CQS and Comvest.
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Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong New Business CSM and NBV Growth
New business CSM growth exceeded 20% in each insurance segment (sixth consecutive quarter >20%), with full-year new business CSM growth >20% in multiple markets including Hong Kong, Japan, Mainland China and Singapore. Asia NBV margin expanded to 41.2% (up 5.5 percentage points YoY); Hong Kong Q4 NBV margin rose to 52.4% from 39.7% in Q4 2024 (+12.7 pp). U.S. new business CSM grew 34% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management reiterated its 2027 targets and provided detailed numerical guidance: they generated $6.4 billion of remittances in 2025 (exceeding a $6 billion expectation) and are tracking toward a cumulative $22+ billion remittances target by 2027, while noting remittances averaged >85% of core earnings over the past 3 years but they now expect 60–70% of core earnings to materialize as cash remittances going forward; capital returns in 2025 included nearly $5.5 billion returned, a 10% increase in the quarterly common dividend, and an OSFI-approved NCIB to repurchase up to 42 million shares (~2.5%) starting in late February. They reaffirmed financial-strength and efficiency metrics: adjusted book value per share $38.27 (up 6% y/y, FX reduced growth by ~3%), LICAT ratio 136% (≈$24 billion above the supervisory target), financial leverage 23.9% (below the 25% medium‑term target), core EPS growth ~8% for the year (9% in the quarter) and core ROE expansion of 30 basis points with a goal of 18%+ by 2027; segment and operational metrics cited to support the guidance included new business CSM growth >20% in each insurance segment (and >20% in key markets), Asia NBV margin 41.2% (+5.5 pts y/y) and Asia core earnings +24% y/y, Global WAM gross flows $50 billion (+15% y/y) but Q4 net outflows $9.5 billion with a 29.2% core EBITDA margin (+60 bps), U.S. APE +9% and U.S. new business CSM +34%, plus an AI ambition to deliver $1 billion+ of enterprise value by 2027 (about 30% achieved to date).Manulife Financial Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 53.01B | 45.58B | 42.31B | 23.62B | 59.84B |
| Gross Profit | 13.53B | 15.11B | 13.68B | 1.00B | 25.27B |
| EBITDA | 6.79B | 7.26B | 6.59B | -3.56B | 9.66B |
| Net Income | 5.78B | 5.63B | 5.46B | -2.10B | 6.66B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 1.03T | 978.82B | 875.57B | 848.94B | 917.64B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 36.33B | 25.79B | 20.34B | 19.15B | 22.59B |
| Total Debt | 14.68B | 14.16B | 12.74B | 12.36B | 11.86B |
| Total Liabilities | 972.95B | 925.86B | 826.85B | 792.56B | 858.77B |
| Stockholders Equity | 50.96B | 51.54B | 47.30B | 46.80B | 58.41B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 32.10B | 26.49B | 20.42B | 16.63B | 23.16B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 32.10B | 26.49B | 20.42B | 16.63B | 23.16B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -28.36B | -18.46B | -13.72B | -18.40B | -24.44B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -2.05B | -4.17B | -5.04B | -1.83B | -2.05B |
Manulife Financial Technical Analysis
Positive
47.73
Price Trends
49.02
Negative
48.68
Negative
45.36
Positive
Market Momentum
-0.47
Negative
52.08
Neutral
84.01
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MFC, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 47.73 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 46.88, below the 50-day MA of 49.02, and above the 200-day MA of 45.36, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.47 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 52.08 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 84.01 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MFC.
Manulife Financial Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$42.31B | 13.48 | 12.83% | 3.28% | -9.03% | 44.14% | |
74 Outperform | C$44.27B | 15.12 | 16.27% | 1.86% | 2.51% | 44.44% | |
72 Outperform | C$80.03B | 14.68 | 11.34% | 3.49% | 5.46% | 10.52% | |
72 Outperform | C$47.99B | 12.88 | 14.68% | 4.11% | -19.88% | -13.92% | |
72 Outperform | C$50.09B | 8.56 | 18.62% | 0.84% | 10.08% | 24.18% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | C$58.10B | 14.06 | 13.98% | 3.62% | -20.64% | 14.88% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:MFC
Manulife Financial
47.73
4.90
11.43%
TSE:SLF
Sun Life Financial
86.65
8.26
10.54%
TSE:FFH
Fairfax Financial Holdings
2,335.21
300.22
14.75%
TSE:GWO
Great-West Lifeco
64.27
12.07
23.13%
TSE:IFC
Intact Financial Corporation
249.33
-31.19
-11.12%
TSE:POW
Power Corp of Canada
66.82
17.40
35.21%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.