Great-West Lifeco (TSE:GWO)
TSX:GWO
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Great-West Lifeco
(TSX:GWO)
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Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$88.00
â–²(24.77% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:05/09/26
The score is driven primarily by improving financial performance (stronger profitability, cash generation, and moderating leverage) and a very constructive earnings update with reiterated growth objectives, strong segment execution, and solid capital strength. Valuation is supportive (low-teens P/E with a ~3.3% yield). The main offset is technicals showing overextended momentum (RSI/Stoch elevated), which raises near-term pullback risk.
Positive Factors
Strong cash generation
Great‑West’s materially stronger operating and free cash flow demonstrates durable internal funding: cash backed earnings enable sustained dividends, buybacks and reinvestment into capital‑light growth initiatives, lowering reliance on external funding and supporting long‑term capital allocation flexibility.
Negative Factors
Persistent participant outflows
Ongoing participant outflows are a structural industry headwind that erodes asset‑based fee revenue and makes long‑term organic revenue growth harder to achieve. Offsetting inflows require sustained sales success and higher rollover conversion, which management says will take time to materially improve.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong cash generation
Great‑West’s materially stronger operating and free cash flow demonstrates durable internal funding: cash backed earnings enable sustained dividends, buybacks and reinvestment into capital‑light growth initiatives, lowering reliance on external funding and supporting long‑term capital allocation flexibility.
Read all positive factors
Great-West Lifeco (GWO) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$72.75B
Dividend Yield3.62%
Average Volume (3M)1.36M
Price to Earnings (P/E)16.2
Beta (1Y)0.32
Revenue Growth4.22%
EPS Growth13.75%
CountryCA
Employees33,250
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Life
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)4.68
Shares Outstanding903,947,900
10 Day Avg. Volume1,022,622
30 Day Avg. Volume1,362,098
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio10.70
Price to Book (P/B)2.09
Price to Sales (P/S)1.60
P/FCF Ratio23.10
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$77.38Price Target Upside9.71% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)5.58
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$5.04B
Great-West Lifeco Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Great-West Lifeco Inc., a financial services holding company, engages in the life and health insurance, retirement and investment services, asset management, and reinsurance businesses in Canada, the United States, and Europe. The company offers a...
How the Company Makes Money
Great-West Lifeco primarily makes money through a combination of insurance earnings, fee-based revenue from retirement/wealth businesses, and investment income on assets it manages.
1) Premiums and underwriting results (insurance operations): The...
Great-West Lifeco Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Jul 28, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a predominantly positive operational and financial picture: double-digit base earnings growth across all segments, strong margin expansion at Empower, exceptional Wealth growth (65% YoY), robust CRS demand, improved capital metrics (LICAT 129%), and sizable Holdco liquidity (~$2.1B). Manageable challenges were highlighted—participant outflows as a structural industry headwind, fee-mix timing impacts, and inherent insurance mortality/longevity volatility—plus competitive pressures in European bulk annuities and some near-term margin timing due to marketing spend. Overall, the positives (broad-based growth, cash generation, capital strength and executed buybacks) materially outweigh the noted risks, which management views as manageable and largely within expectation.Positive Updates
Strong Base Earnings and EPS Growth
Base earnings increased ~20% year-over-year and base EPS grew 23% year-over-year, driven by capital-efficient businesses and disciplined capital deployment.
Negative Updates
Participant Outflows and Demographic Headwinds
Management reiterated persistent participant outflows (driven by demographics) with an expectation of roughly ~1% participant outflows in normalized periods despite positive net plan flows in Q1; this remains a structural challenge for retirement recordkeeping revenue.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Base Earnings and EPS Growth
Base earnings increased ~20% year-over-year and base EPS grew 23% year-over-year, driven by capital-efficient businesses and disciplined capital deployment.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management said Great‑West is on track to meet its medium‑term objectives, reiterating expectations for double‑digit base earnings growth at Empower in 2026 and that Capital & Risk Solutions (CRS) will likely exceed its medium‑term base earnings target; Q1 metrics included ~20% YoY base earnings growth, +23% base EPS, Empower base earnings +23% YoY with Empower AUA of $2.0 trillion and Empower base ROE 20.8% (company base ROE 19.1%), Wealth base earnings +65% YoY and Wealth operating margin ~39%, total client assets $3.3 trillion (>$1.1 trillion higher‑margin AUM), LICAT 129% (up from 128%), Holdco cash ~$2.1 billion, leverage ~28%, base capital generation >80% of base earnings, free cash flow ~85% of base earnings, Q1 share repurchases ~$567 million, and credit losses below the 4–6 bps annualized range; guidance also reiterated maintaining LICAT >125%, generating ≥70% of base earnings from capital‑light businesses over the medium term, and keeping shareholder returns at least in line with 2025.Great-West Lifeco Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
74
Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
82
Very Positive
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 34.77B | 39.10B | 34.72B | 36.73B | -2.69B | 64.45B |
| Gross Profit | 15.81B | 13.13B | 13.39B | 11.12B | 11.06B | 12.93B |
| EBITDA | 6.15B | 5.64B | 5.93B | 3.98B | 4.96B | 4.72B |
| Net Income | 4.47B | 4.12B | 4.07B | 2.87B | 3.73B | 3.26B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 863.80B | 862.83B | 802.16B | 713.23B | 701.46B | 630.49B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 25.93B | 28.39B | 24.71B | 19.38B | 18.84B | 17.23B |
| Total Debt | 8.86B | 13.41B | 10.23B | 9.65B | 11.29B | 9.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 830.63B | 829.83B | 771.01B | 683.38B | 669.14B | 600.00B |
| Stockholders Equity | 29.93B | 29.86B | 29.54B | 26.84B | 29.01B | 27.22B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 4.98B | 2.71B | 4.75B | 5.20B | 7.05B | 10.37B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.98B | 2.71B | 4.75B | 5.20B | 7.05B | 10.37B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -80.00M | -56.00M | -408.00M | -786.00M | -5.49B | -11.21B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -4.83B | -4.32B | -2.29B | -3.55B | -620.00M | -992.00M |
Great-West Lifeco Technical Analysis
Positive
70.53
Price Trends
71.54
Positive
67.52
Positive
63.05
Positive
Market Momentum
2.47
Positive
84.45
Negative
89.66
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:GWO, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 70.53 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 77.18, below the 50-day MA of 71.54, and above the 200-day MA of 63.05, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 2.47 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 84.45 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 89.66 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:GWO.
Great-West Lifeco Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
80 Outperform | C$72.75B | 16.25 | 15.17% | 3.62% | 4.22% | 13.75% | |
76 Outperform | C$52.39B | 19.11 | 11.34% | 3.28% | 7.10% | 0.39% | |
75 Outperform | C$47.89B | 13.96 | 16.93% | 1.86% | 3.57% | 51.86% | |
72 Outperform | C$88.41B | 13.77 | 12.65% | 3.49% | 15.84% | 31.26% | |
71 Outperform | C$54.90B | 16.73 | 12.98% | 4.11% | -10.77% | -1.88% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
66 Neutral | C$49.47B | 7.15 | 17.32% | 0.84% | 2.46% | 15.03% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:GWO
Great-West Lifeco
80.48
30.09
59.71%
TSE:MFC
Manulife Financial
52.73
10.60
25.15%
TSE:SLF
Sun Life Financial
99.08
13.48
15.75%
TSE:FFH
Fairfax Financial Holdings
2,145.70
-127.61
-5.61%
TSE:IFC
Intact Financial Corporation
270.87
-35.78
-11.67%
TSE:POW
Power Corp of Canada
83.33
33.37
66.80%
Great-West Lifeco Corporate Events
Financial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
Great-West Lifeco Sets May 7 Date for Q1 2026 Call and Annual Meetings
Neutral
Apr 15, 2026
Great-West Lifeco Inc. will release its first quarter 2026 financial results after markets close on May 6, 2026, followed by a management-hosted earnings conference call and webcast at 9:30 a.m. ET on May 7. A replay of the call, along with presen...
Business Operations and Strategy
Great-West Lifeco CEO to Present at National Bank Financial Services Conference
Neutral
Mar 23, 2026
Great-West Lifeco Inc. said President and Chief Executive Officer David Harney will take part in a fireside chat at the National Bank of Canada 24th Annual Financial Services Conference on March 25, 2026. The company will post a webcast replay of ...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Great-West Lifeco CEO to Discuss Strategy and 2025 Results in TD Cowen Virtual Fireside Chat
Neutral
Feb 17, 2026
Great-West Lifeco Inc. said President and Chief Executive Officer David Harney will participate in a virtual fireside chat hosted by TD Cowen analyst Mario Mendonca on February 19, 2026, to discuss the company’s strategy and 2025 financial r...
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Great-West Lifeco Posts Record 2025 Base Earnings and Hikes Dividend 10%
Positive
Feb 12, 2026
Great-West Lifeco reported record base earnings for 2025, with fourth-quarter base earnings rising 12% to $1.25 billion, or $1.36 per share, driven by higher assets from market growth, strong performance in its Retirement and Wealth segments, part...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.