Intact Financial Corporation (TSE:IFC)
TSX:IFC
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Intact Financial Corporation
(TSX:IFC)
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Rating:74Outperform
Price Target:
C$295.00
â–²(18.32% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:02/18/26
The score is driven primarily by strong financial performance (profitability improvement, solid balance sheet, and healthy cash generation) and a positive earnings outlook with clear strategic levers and capital flexibility. This is tempered by weaker longer-term technical trend signals and some cyclicality/volatility risks (cat losses, margin and cash-conversion variability).
Positive Factors
Revenue & profitability growth
Material multi-year top-line expansion and a step-up in net margin in 2025 reflect durable scale across personal, commercial and specialty lines. Greater revenue breadth and improving profitability support sustained underwriting leverage, higher operating cash flow potential, and resilience through cycles.
Negative Factors
Elevated catastrophe exposure
High and rising catastrophe expectations create structural tail-risk for underwriting results and capital volatility. Concentration of cat risk in Canadian personal lines means larger reserve and reinsurance requirements, pressuring long-term combined ratios and capital return consistency.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue & profitability growth
Material multi-year top-line expansion and a step-up in net margin in 2025 reflect durable scale across personal, commercial and specialty lines. Greater revenue breadth and improving profitability support sustained underwriting leverage, higher operating cash flow potential, and resilience through cycles.
Read all positive factors
Intact Financial Corporation (IFC) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$44.27B
Dividend Yield1.86%
Average Volume (3M)447.13K
Price to Earnings (P/E)15.1
Beta (1Y)0.45
Revenue Growth2.51%
EPS Growth44.44%
CountryCA
Employees31,000
SectorFinancial
Sector Strength70
IndustryInsurance - Property & Casualty
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)5.50
Shares Outstanding177,561,550
10 Day Avg. Volume410,697
30 Day Avg. Volume447,135
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.31
Price to Book (P/B)2.44
Price to Sales (P/S)1.95
P/FCF Ratio12.95
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$315.17Price Target Upside26.41% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering6
EPS Forecast (FY)17.88
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$24.76B
Intact Financial Corporation Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Intact Financial Corporation, through its subsidiaries, provides property and casualty insurance products to individuals and businesses in Canada, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, rest of Europe, and the Middle East. It offers perso...
How the Company Makes Money
Intact Financial Corporation generates revenue primarily through the underwriting of insurance premiums. The company collects premiums from policyholders in exchange for providing coverage against risks such as property damage, liability, and auto...
Intact Financial Corporation Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Feb 10, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 05, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a strong operational and financial quarter with significant margin expansion, high ROE, solid capital generation, meaningful AI-driven productivity gains and continued top-line momentum in key markets (Canada and U.S.). Management flagged near-term headwinds including persistent personal auto industry losses, UK&I top-line softness, a one-time drag on personal property growth, modest expense ratio pressure, and elevated catastrophe expectations. On balance, concrete performance improvements, capital flexibility and clear strategic levers (AI, distribution M&A, targeted underwriting) outweigh the identifiable challenges.Positive Updates
Strong earnings and per-share growth
Net operating income per share rose 12% in Q4 to $5.50 and 33% for the full year to $19.21; compounded annual net operating income per share growth of 18% over 3 years and 12% over the past decade, exceeding the 10% growth objective.
Negative Updates
Persistent personal auto industry profitability challenges
Industry combined ratio remained above 100% for the first nine months, prompting management to expect a continued hard market; Intact's Canada personal auto combined ratio was 94.2% in Q4 and full year Canada combined ratio was 93.3%—meeting the sub-95% target but still elevated.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong earnings and per-share growth
Net operating income per share rose 12% in Q4 to $5.50 and 33% for the full year to $19.21; compounded annual net operating income per share growth of 18% over 3 years and 12% over the past decade, exceeding the 10% growth objective.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided 2026 for continued platform outperformance with line-level expectations of Personal lines industry growth in the high single‑digit to low double‑digit range, Canada Commercial and UK&I each in the low‑ to mid‑single digits, and U.S. Specialty mid‑single digits; they expect the U.K. combined ratio to trend toward ~90% within 12 months and Canada Commercial to remain in the low‑90s or better. Key financial guidance/targets: annual catastrophe losses of $1.2 billion (75% Canada; ~70% of Canada cats in Personal), consolidated expense ratio guidance of 33–34% (Q4 34.4%, FY 34%), operating net investment income > $1.6 billion for 2026, distribution income growth of at least 10% annually, and near‑term prior‑year development hovering toward the upper end of the 2–4% range (Q4 PYD was 5.5%). Capital and capital‑deployment guidance: total capital margin $3.7 billion (up $800 million in 2025), adjusted debt/total capital ~16.5%, a renewed NCIB to repurchase up to 3% of shares (having repurchased $200 million in the last six months) and roughly $4–5 billion of M&A capacity before equity issuance. Strategic financial objectives reiterated: sustain operating ROE in the upper teens (19.5% LTM), deliver at least 500 basis points of ROE outperformance, compound net operating income per share by ~10% annually, reduce 2026 acquisition/integration costs versus 2025, and continue AI deployment (>$200 million recurring benefits to date; on track to exceed $0.5 billion by 2030).Intact Financial Corporation Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
82
Very Positive
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
Cash Flow
72
Positive
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 26.07B | 24.98B | 23.29B | 22.54B | 17.58B |
| Gross Profit | 5.69B | 4.03B | 2.99B | 3.66B | 8.61B |
| EBITDA | 5.33B | 3.83B | 2.62B | 3.75B | 3.18B |
| Net Income | 3.37B | 2.30B | 1.32B | 2.45B | 2.07B |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 62.87B | 59.53B | 55.98B | 53.74B | 66.35B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 18.92B | 18.90B | 17.94B | 23.85B | 4.12B |
| Total Debt | 5.25B | 5.47B | 5.74B | 5.28B | 6.31B |
| Total Liabilities | 42.03B | 41.38B | 39.50B | 37.61B | 38.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 20.84B | 18.15B | 16.19B | 15.84B | 15.67B |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 3.93B | 2.96B | 1.39B | 3.25B | 2.80B |
| Operating Cash Flow | 4.39B | 3.39B | 1.85B | 3.67B | 3.13B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.58B | -1.61B | -2.00B | -2.75B | -5.97B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.60B | -2.01B | 321.00M | -2.21B | 4.19B |
Intact Financial Corporation Technical Analysis
Negative
249.33
Price Trends
256.76
Negative
267.14
Negative
273.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-2.16
Positive
41.91
Neutral
27.49
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:IFC, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 249.33 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 253.85, below the 50-day MA of 256.76, and below the 200-day MA of 273.74, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -2.16 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 41.91 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 27.49 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:IFC.
Intact Financial Corporation Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (68)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
76 Outperform | C$42.31B | 13.48 | 12.83% | 3.28% | -9.03% | 44.14% | |
74 Outperform | C$44.27B | 15.12 | 16.27% | 1.86% | 2.51% | 44.44% | |
72 Outperform | C$50.09B | 8.56 | 18.62% | 0.84% | 10.08% | 24.18% | |
72 Outperform | C$13.90B | 15.09 | 13.62% | 2.11% | -25.13% | 16.40% | |
68 Neutral | C$8.00B | 21.30 | 11.01% | 0.98% | 19.80% | -12.93% | |
68 Neutral | $18.00B | 11.42 | 9.92% | 3.81% | 9.73% | 1.22% | |
65 Neutral | C$58.10B | 14.06 | 13.98% | 3.62% | -20.64% | 14.88% |
* Financial Sector Average
TSE:IFC
Intact Financial Corporation
249.33
-31.19
-11.12%
TSE:FFH
Fairfax Financial Holdings
2,335.21
300.22
14.75%
TSE:GWO
Great-West Lifeco
64.27
12.07
23.13%
TSE:IAG
iA Financial Corporation Inc
152.70
19.14
14.33%
TSE:POW
Power Corp of Canada
66.82
17.40
35.21%
TSE:DFY
Definity Financial Corp.
65.76
4.14
6.71%
Intact Financial Corporation Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyPrivate Placements and Financing
Intact Financial Raises $500 Million in Notes and Redeems Legacy Subordinated Debt
Positive
Feb 13, 2026
Intact Financial Corporation has arranged concurrent private placements of $250 million in unsecured medium term notes and $250 million in Limited Recourse Capital Notes to accredited investors in Canada, as it continues to fine-tune its funding m...
Business Operations and StrategyDividendsFinancial Disclosures
Intact Financial posts record profitability and hikes dividend on strong Q4
Positive
Feb 11, 2026
Intact Financial Corporation reported a strong fourth quarter of 2025, with net operating income per share rising 12% to $5.50 and a combined ratio of 85.9%, reflecting robust underwriting performance across regions. Operating direct premiums writ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.