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Fairfax Financial Holdings (TSE:FFH)
TSX:FFH

Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH) AI Stock Analysis

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Fairfax Financial Holdings

(TSX:FFH)

Rating:75Outperform
Price Target:
C$2,523.00
â–˛(10.57%Upside)
Fairfax Financial Holdings demonstrates a robust financial profile with strong revenue growth and profitability. The stock valuation is attractive, and recent corporate events bolster its financial position. However, technical indicators suggest caution due to potential short-term volatility. The earnings call and corporate events provide a positive outlook, despite some operational challenges.
Positive Factors
Financial Performance
Increased target multiple reflects continued good operating income visibility and continued solid BVPS growth.
Underwriting Income
Better underwriting income with a 98.5% combined ratio versus the 100.5% estimate.
Negative Factors
Earnings from Associates
Earnings from associates are weaker than expected, which can be unpredictable.
Impairment Charges
Other division lower than expected, largely on one-time non-cash impairment charges.

Fairfax Financial Holdings (FFH) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Fairfax Financial Holdings Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionFairfax Financial Holdings Limited is a Toronto-based holding company engaged in property and casualty insurance and reinsurance. Founded in 1985, Fairfax operates globally through its subsidiaries, providing a wide range of insurance products and services. The company is known for its prudent investment strategies and focus on long-term value creation, with additional interests in various sectors including hospitality, agriculture, and energy through its diversified investment portfolio.
How the Company Makes MoneyFairfax Financial Holdings makes money primarily through its insurance and reinsurance operations. The company earns premiums by underwriting property and casualty insurance policies globally. In addition to its core insurance business, Fairfax generates significant revenue from its investment activities, leveraging its insurance float to invest in stocks, bonds, and alternative assets. Investment income and capital gains from these activities contribute considerably to Fairfax’s earnings. The company’s revenue model is bolstered by strategic acquisitions and partnerships that enhance its insurance capabilities and expand its investment opportunities. Fairfax's diversified investment approach and focus on value investing are key factors in its financial performance.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 01, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 5.93%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 31, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call reflects a mix of positive and negative aspects. While the company reported strong net earnings growth, increased book value per share, significant investment gains, and growth in gross premiums, these were offset by a decrease in operating income due to significant California wildfire losses and challenges in international operations. Non-insurance companies also reported an operating loss.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Net Earnings Growth
Net earnings for the first quarter of 2025 were $946 million, up from $777 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Increase in Book Value Per Share
Book value per share increased to $1,080 in the first quarter of 2025, up by 3.5% adjusted for the $15 dividend.
Significant Investment Gains
Net gains on investments were over $1 billion, driven by gains on equity exposures and bond portfolio due to decreased interest rates.
Growth in Gross Premiums
Insurance and reinsurance companies wrote $8.4 billion of gross premium in the first quarter of 2025, up 5% from the first quarter of 2024.
Strong Performance in North American Insurance Segment
North American insurance segment increased gross premiums by 6.7% over the first quarter of 2024.
Positive International Operations
Excluding Gulf Insurance, international operations gross premiums were up 8%, with robust growth in Fairfax Asia and Eastern Europe.
Negative Updates
Decrease in Operating Income
Operating income from insurance and reinsurance companies was $686 million in the first quarter of 2025, down from $977 million in the first quarter of 2024, mainly due to California wildfire losses.
Significant California Wildfire Losses
Net losses from California wildfires amounted to $692 million, impacting underwriting income and resulting in a consolidated combined ratio of 98.5.
Challenges in International Operations
International insurance and reinsurance operations saw a decrease in gross premiums by 5.1% due to the non-renewal of a significant contract at Gulf Insurance.
Non-Insurance Companies Operating Loss
Non-insurance companies reported an operating loss of $41 million in the first quarter of 2025, compared to an operating income of $17 million in the first quarter of 2024.
Company Guidance
During Fairfax's 2025 first-quarter results conference call, management provided detailed financial guidance and performance metrics. The company reported net earnings of $946 million, an increase from $777 million in the first quarter of 2024. Despite California wildfire losses amounting to $692 million, Fairfax's insurance and reinsurance operations delivered an underwriting profit of $97 million, with a consolidated combined ratio of 98.5. The interest and dividend income was $607 million, and net gains on investments exceeded $1 billion. Gross premiums written totaled $8.4 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, with the global insurer and reinsurer segment contributing significantly to this growth. Fairfax's book value per share increased to $1,080, reflecting a 3.5% rise after adjusting for a $15 dividend. The company highlighted its strong investment portfolio with a $48 billion fixed income component, predominantly in government treasuries, and emphasized the resilience of its operations amidst market volatility. Management expressed confidence in the long-term prospects of its international operations, which now account for 20% of total gross premiums, despite a 5.1% decline in international insurance and reinsurance operations, attributed to the non-renewal of a significant contract at Gulf Insurance.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Fairfax Financial Holdings presents a strong financial profile with robust revenue growth and profitability. The balance sheet remains stable with moderate leverage, while cash flow generation supports operational needs despite a recent decline in free cash flow. The company should focus on enhancing operational efficiency and cash management to sustain its financial health.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
Fairfax Financial Holdings exhibits strong revenue growth with a TTM (Trailing-Twelve-Months) revenue of $30.03 billion, up from the previous annual revenue of $28.45 billion, indicating a growth rate of 5.57%. The net profit margin stands at 13.47% for TTM, reflecting robust profitability. However, the EBIT margin has decreased from 19.82% in 2023 to 14.64% in TTM, suggesting some pressure on operating efficiency. Overall, the company demonstrates solid revenue momentum and profitability, with some areas for operational improvement.
Balance Sheet
78
Positive
The balance sheet of Fairfax Financial Holdings shows a healthy equity base with a stockholders' equity of $24.07 billion. The debt-to-equity ratio is 0.51, which is fairly moderate and indicates a balanced approach to leveraging. The equity ratio of 24.35% reflects adequate financial stability. However, the total debt has increased slightly over the period, and while it is not concerning, maintaining a check on debt levels will be crucial to sustaining financial stability.
Cash Flow
70
Positive
The cash flow analysis highlights a positive free cash flow of $2.65 billion in TTM, although it has decreased from $3.59 billion in 2023, indicating a decline in free cash flow growth. The operating cash flow to net income ratio stands at 0.76, demonstrating reasonable cash generation relative to net income. While the company maintains a positive cash flow, the decline in free cash flow growth suggests potential challenges in cash management or increased capital expenditures.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
30.03B28.45B31.83B25.82B25.80B19.79B
Gross Profit
31.59B28.45B25.80B25.82B25.80B19.79B
EBIT
4.40B5.64B31.40B1.34B-1.03B-4.29B
EBITDA
5.29B7.04B6.09B2.03B-100.50M1.47B
Net Income Common Stockholders
4.04B3.87B4.38B1.15B3.40B37.40M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
9.15B7.28B7.96B11.70B25.34B16.30B
Total Assets
91.91B96.78B91.99B92.13B86.65B74.05B
Total Debt
10.35B13.06B10.80B9.32B7.75B8.81B
Net Debt
3.43B5.83B5.04B-2.38B-17.59B-7.49B
Total Liabilities
64.27B68.43B64.28B71.79B65.33B56.53B
Stockholders Equity
22.92B24.07B22.95B16.68B16.39B13.86B
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
2.65B3.59B-553.50M-4.84B6.29B-133.50M
Operating Cash Flow
3.09B3.99B-39.40M-4.42B6.64B139.80M
Investing Cash Flow
-799.60M-1.32B92.00M384.80M1.84B-46.80M
Financing Cash Flow
-2.38B-1.56B-1.07B-1.29B-1.19B436.90M

Fairfax Financial Holdings Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2281.82
Price Trends
50DMA
2158.92
Positive
100DMA
2084.20
Positive
200DMA
1942.40
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
39.84
Positive
RSI
56.63
Neutral
STOCH
21.79
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:FFH, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2281.82 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2280.33, above the 50-day MA of 2158.92, and above the 200-day MA of 1942.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 39.84 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 56.63 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 21.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:FFH.

Fairfax Financial Holdings Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (64)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSIAG
77
Outperform
C$13.04B14.8012.54%2.51%-7.31%28.65%
TSIFC
76
Outperform
C$56.14B25.4012.95%1.59%4.73%44.14%
TSSLF
75
Outperform
$50.38B16.2613.18%3.69%0.94%3.50%
TSFFH
75
Outperform
$55.35B8.9617.21%0.92%17.40%11.85%
TSDFY
74
Outperform
C$8.65B20.5113.25%0.89%18.15%18.11%
TSGWO
68
Neutral
C$47.28B12.3614.65%4.43%17.48%25.54%
64
Neutral
$12.85B9.817.59%16985.65%12.30%-7.71%
* Financial Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:FFH
Fairfax Financial Holdings
2,281.82
748.09
48.78%
TSE:SLF
Sun Life Financial
89.38
24.07
36.86%
TSE:IAG
iA Financial Corporation Inc
142.32
56.74
66.30%
TSE:GWO
Great-West Lifeco
51.34
12.70
32.87%
TSE:IFC
Intact Financial Corporation
311.94
86.35
38.28%
TSE:DFY
Definity Financial Corp.
74.30
31.34
72.95%

Fairfax Financial Holdings Corporate Events

Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and Strategy
Fairfax Financial Holdings Prices $900 Million Senior Notes Offering
Positive
May 16, 2025

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited announced the pricing of a private offering of senior notes totaling US$900 million, with the proceeds intended for refinancing, repaying, or redeeming existing obligations, as well as potential acquisitions or investments. This strategic move aims to strengthen Fairfax’s financial position and flexibility, potentially impacting its market operations and providing opportunities for growth and investment.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:FFH) stock is a Buy with a C$1850.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on Fairfax Financial Holdings stock, see the TSE:FFH Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fairfax Financial Holdings Reports Strong Q1 2025 Earnings Amid Investment Gains
Positive
May 1, 2025

Fairfax Financial Holdings reported a significant increase in net earnings for the first quarter of 2025, reaching $945.7 million compared to $776.5 million in the same period of 2024. This growth was driven by substantial net gains on investments, despite a decrease in adjusted operating income and significant catastrophe losses from California wildfires. The company’s property and casualty insurance and reinsurance operations maintained a strong performance with a consolidated combined ratio of 98.5% and underwriting profit of $96.9 million. The company also saw growth in gross and net premiums written, reflecting new business and rate increases.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
Fairfax Financial to Discuss Q1 2025 Results in Upcoming Conference Call
Neutral
Apr 25, 2025

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited announced a conference call scheduled for May 2, 2025, to discuss its first quarter results for 2025. This call will provide insights into the company’s financial performance and strategic direction, potentially impacting stakeholders’ perspectives on Fairfax’s market positioning and operational strategies.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder Meetings
Fairfax Financial Successfully Elects Directors at Annual Meeting
Positive
Apr 11, 2025

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited announced the successful election of its twelve nominee directors during the Annual Shareholders’ Meeting held on April 10, 2025. The voting results indicate strong support for the nominees, reflecting confidence in the company’s leadership and strategic direction, which could positively influence its market position and stakeholder relations.

Shareholder Meetings
Fairfax Financial Holdings Announces Details of Hybrid Annual Shareholders’ Meeting
Neutral
Mar 31, 2025

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited has announced the details of its upcoming hybrid annual shareholders’ meeting, which will be held both in-person and virtually on April 10, 2025. The meeting will include a presentation by Chairman and CEO Prem Watsa, followed by a Q&A session. Shareholders can attend and vote through a web-based platform, and are encouraged to submit questions in advance. This hybrid format aims to increase accessibility and engagement among stakeholders.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.