MDA Space Ltd (MDA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.73B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 34.2
• Beta (1Y): 1.02
• Revenue Growth: 57.77%
• EPS Growth: 57.55%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 126,301,476
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 813,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,087,175
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$39.80
• Price Target Upside: 30.75% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$30.00 ▼(-1.45% Downside)

MDA Space Ltd's strong financial performance and optimistic earnings guidance are key strengths, supported by a robust backlog and strategic investments. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate the stock may be overvalued. Challenges from contract termination and program delays also weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Large backlog provides multi-year visibility

A $4.4B backlog gives durable revenue visibility across multiple years, supporting stable production schedules, workforce utilization, and long-term supplier commitments. This reduces near-term demand risk, aids forecasting, and underpins sustained margin and cash-flow conversion over the planning horizon.

Strong revenue and EBITDA growth

Rapid top-line and EBITDA expansion with healthy adjusted margins indicate persistent demand and operational leverage. Sustained margin expansion enhances internal funding capacity for R&D and strategic projects, reinforcing competitive positioning in satellite systems and space services over the medium term.

Moderate leverage and solid equity base

A conservative debt-to-equity ratio and strong equity ratio provide financial flexibility to pursue capital-intensive contracts and M&A while limiting default risk. This balance sheet posture supports investment in growth initiatives and absorbs program timing variability without immediate refinancing pressure.

Negative Factors

Loss of a $1.3B contract

Termination of a major $1.3B contract materially removes expected revenue and associated margins, creating uncertainty in project cash flows and backlog composition. Recovery depends on compensation claims and new contract wins, increasing execution and revenue realization risk over the medium term.

Program delivery delays

Supplier-driven schedule slippages push revenue recognition and cash receipts later, impairing near-term free cash flow and potentially increasing cost and penalty exposure. Prolonged delays can strain customer relations, compress margins, and complicate capacity planning and working capital management.

Declining free cash flow

A >30% TTM decline in free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, acquisitions, and debt servicing, increasing reliance on external financing. Even with healthy operating cash conversion ratios, sustained FCF erosion undermines balance-sheet flexibility and heightens vulnerability to program shocks.

MDA Space Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MDA Ltd. designs, manufactures, and services space robotics, satellite systems and components, and intelligence systems in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers geointelligence solutions that provide satellite-generated imagery and analytic services to deliver critical and value-added insights in the areas of national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance. The company also provides robotics and space operations that enable humanity's exploration by providing autonomous robotics and vision sensors that operate in space and on the surfaces of the moon and mars. In addition, it offers satellite systems and spacecraft to enable space-based services, including space-based broadband internet connectivity from low earth orbit satellite constellations. Further, the company provides products and services of defense intelligence systems. It serves government agencies, prime contractors, and space companies. The company was formerly known as Neptune Acquisition Holdings Inc. and changed its name to MDA Ltd. in March 2021. MDA Ltd. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

MDA generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by contracting with governmental agencies, defense organizations, and commercial enterprises. Key revenue streams include the design, manufacturing, and deployment of satellite systems and related technologies, which often involve long-term contracts and projects. Additionally, MDA earns income from providing data services derived from its satellite operations, such as Earth observation data and analytics. The company has established strategic partnerships with various aerospace organizations and technology firms, enhancing its capabilities and market reach, which further contributes to its financial performance.

MDA Space Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MDA Ltd exhibits strong financial health with robust revenue growth and stable profitability. The balance sheet reflects a balanced leverage position and effective equity utilization. While the cash flow statement indicates some challenges in free cash flow growth, the company maintains a solid cash generation capability. Overall, MDA Ltd is well-positioned in the Aerospace & Defense industry with a positive financial outlook.

Income Statement

MDA Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.75% increase in the TTM period, indicating robust demand and market presence. The gross profit margin of 24.54% and net profit margin of 8.48% reflect solid profitability, although slightly lower than previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 13.29% and 20.43% respectively, showcasing efficient operational management. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and stable profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) of 9.53% is commendable, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 40.62%, suggesting a solid equity base. While the company maintains a stable financial position, the increase in total debt over previous periods warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 15.21%, which could indicate potential cash management challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.75 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggest that the company is generating sufficient cash relative to its net income. Despite the recent decline in free cash flow, the overall cash flow position remains relatively strong.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	1.08B	807.60M	641.20M	476.90M	394.13M
Gross Profit	374.60M	325.50M	275.60M	252.10M	191.30M	140.27M
EBITDA	233.80M	162.80M	131.20M	128.90M	75.70M	36.80M
Net Income	109.60M	79.40M	48.80M	26.30M	2.90M	-23.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.48B	2.60B	2.16B	1.75B	1.53B	1.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	195.70M	166.70M	22.50M	39.30M	83.60M	78.60M
Total Debt	431.30M	136.80M	525.00M	251.90M	160.40M	580.20M
Total Liabilities	2.15B	1.42B	1.10B	750.20M	572.90M	997.80M
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.18B	1.06B	1.00B	961.70M	457.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	547.40M	677.40M	-134.50M	-80.80M	19.60M	53.60M
Operating Cash Flow	735.70M	815.60M	13.50M	57.00M	72.10M	56.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-598.50M	-229.90M	-217.60M	-180.10M	-98.80M	-1.01B
Financing Cash Flow	-70.80M	-436.10M	187.40M	78.80M	30.60M	1.03B

MDA Space Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 30.44
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Negative
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 30.44 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 26.83, above the 50-day MA of 25.13, and below the 200-day MA of 31.50, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.99 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 72.77 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 92.47 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MDA.

MDA Space Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FTG	78 Outperform	C$337.32M	23.56	17.40%	―	15.09%	31.55%
CAE	72 Outperform	$14.78B	33.76	9.00%	―	9.12%	―
MAL	72 Outperform	C$1.16B	25.94	5.64%	0.93%	8.84%	131.58%
MDA	70 Outperform	C$3.73B	34.16	8.88%	―	57.77%	57.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BBD.A	63 Neutral	C$24.73B	42.96	―	―	6.60%	-1.71%
BBD.B	62 Neutral	C$24.73B	42.64	―	―	6.60%	-1.71%

MDA Space Ltd Corporate Events

MDA Space Wins IDIQ Contract Slot on U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD Program

MDA Space Ltd. has secured an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency under its Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) program, enabling the company to compete for a wide range of future task orders supporting U.S. defence efforts across land, sea, air, cyberspace and space domains. The award reinforces MDA Space’s status as a trusted mission partner in defence and security, positioning the company to deepen its role in U.S. strategic defence initiatives and potentially expand its footprint in the lucrative military space and missile defence market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Raises C$250 Million in Note Offering to Refinance Debt

MDA Space Ltd. has closed a C$250 million private placement of 7.00% senior unsecured notes due 2030, led by a syndicate of underwriters including RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The company is using the net proceeds to refinance existing debt under its credit facility, a move that extends its debt maturity profile and may provide greater financial flexibility as it pursues growth opportunities in the global space sector, while the notes were placed with accredited investors in Canada and qualified institutional buyers in the United States under applicable securities law exemptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Partners with Canadian Government and Telesat for Enhanced Military Satellite Communications

MDA Space Ltd. has entered into a strategic partnership with the Government of Canada and Telesat Corporation to enhance military satellite communications capabilities under the Enhanced Satellite Communication Project – Polar (ESCP-P). This initiative aims to bolster Canada’s Arctic sovereignty and defense operations, creating high-quality jobs and fostering innovation within the Canadian space and defense sectors. The partnership underscores the government’s commitment to Arctic security and leverages the expertise of MDA Space and Telesat in secure satellite communications.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Announces C$250 Million Note Offering to Enhance Financial Flexibility

MDA Space Ltd. announced a private placement offering of C$250 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, which is expected to close by December 23, 2025. The offering, led by major underwriters, aims to refinance existing debt and enhance the company’s financial flexibility and liquidity, supporting its pursuit of market growth opportunities. This strategic move is seen as a significant evolution in MDA Space’s capital structure, potentially impacting its operations and positioning within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Secures Major Contract for RADARSAT Constellation Mission

MDA Space Ltd has been awarded a $44.7 million contract by the Canadian Space Agency to procure and deliver critical components for the RADARSAT Constellation Mission replenishment satellite. This contract is part of the Canadian government’s $1.012 billion RADARSAT+ initiative, aimed at supporting satellite Earth observation needs. MDA Space is also one of three companies selected to conduct a concept study for a next-generation radar satellite system, which will address the growing demand for space-based Earth observation data. The announcement strengthens MDA’s position in the industry and highlights its ongoing collaboration with the Canadian government to deliver essential space-based solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Advancements

MDA Space Ltd. reported a strong third quarter in 2025 with significant financial growth, highlighted by a 45% increase in revenues and a 49% rise in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. The company also completed the acquisition of SatixFy Communications Ltd., enhancing its satellite systems offerings, and demonstrated a breakthrough in satellite communication technology with its MDA AURORA digital beam forming capability. These developments, along with being named the 2025 Global Satellite Business of the Year, underscore MDA Space’s robust market positioning and its strategic focus on leveraging growth opportunities in the space technology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Invests $10 Million in Maritime Launch to Boost Canada’s Space Capabilities

MDA Space Ltd. has announced a $10 million equity investment in Maritime Launch Services Inc., marking a significant step in enhancing Canada’s sovereign space capabilities. This investment is expected to accelerate the readiness of Spaceport Nova Scotia for orbital launch operations, providing a reliable domestic launch option for various clients and strengthening Canada’s position in the global launch services market. The partnership is anticipated to drive economic growth, create high-quality jobs, and attract global investment, while MDA Space will gain operational involvement and strategic rights within Maritime Launch.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Hold with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Responds to Share Price Fluctuations Amid Speculation

MDA Space Ltd. has addressed recent fluctuations in its share price, attributing them to speculative media reports regarding mergers and acquisitions among its customers. The company has stated that it does not comment on rumors and will provide a comprehensive business outlook in its upcoming earnings release on November 14, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Announces Q3 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

MDA Space Ltd. has announced the release of its third quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for November 14, 2025, before market opening. The company will hold a conference call and webcast to discuss these results, which will be accessible live and as a replay on their Investor Relations website. This announcement underscores MDA’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its stakeholders, providing insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.