MDA Space Ltd (MDA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$5.12B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.5
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 57.77%
• EPS Growth: 57.55%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.45
• Shares Outstanding: 126,360,970
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 813,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,087,175
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$49.57
• Price Target Upside: 15.52% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 7
• EPS Forecast (FY): 1.51
• Revenue Forecast (FY): C$1.81B

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$40.00 ▼(-6.78% Downside)
• Action: Reiterated Date: 01/18/26
• Date: Action: Reiterated 01/18/26

The score is driven primarily by strong underlying financial performance and a constructive (but overbought) technical trend. Reaffirmed guidance and a large backlog support the outlook, while the high P/E, declining free cash flow, and EchoStar-related setbacks (termination and legal overhang) meaningfully constrain the rating.

Positive Factors

Sustained Revenue and Margins

Consistent revenue growth with healthy gross and net margins indicates durable demand for MDA's satellite and robotics solutions. Solid margins reflect operational efficiency and pricing power, supporting reinvestment and profitability over multiple years as contracts convert.

Large Backlog

A $4.4B backlog gives multi-year revenue visibility and helps smooth revenue volatility inherent to program timing. It supports production planning, resource allocation, and predictable revenue conversion, reducing short-term execution risk and aiding long-term cash flow planning.

Stable Balance Sheet

Moderate leverage and a strong equity base provide financial flexibility to fund R&D, capital projects, and potential strategic deals without over-reliance on external financing. This stability helps absorb program setbacks and supports long-term investment in capabilities.

Negative Factors

Declining Free Cash Flow

A notable drop in free cash flow reduces internal funding for capex, R&D, and working capital needs. Over time this can necessitate external financing or slower investment cadence, constraining growth execution and raising sensitivity to project timing and cost overruns.

EchoStar Contract Termination & Legal Overhang

Loss of a $1.3B contract is a structural revenue and earnings shock; compensation remains uncertain and legal claims add potential liabilities. These factors raise long-term execution and reputational risk, complicating planning despite backlog strength.

Program Delivery Delays

Supplier-driven delays push revenue recognition and may increase costs through schedule slippages. Prolonged delivery timelines can weaken customer relationships, defer cash inflows, and pressure margins as fixed overheads persist while program revenues are postponed.

MDA Space Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MDA Ltd. designs, manufactures, and services space robotics, satellite systems and components, and intelligence systems in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers geointelligence solutions that provide satellite-generated imagery and analytic services to deliver critical and value-added insights in the areas of national security, climate change monitoring, and maritime surveillance. The company also provides robotics and space operations that enable humanity's exploration by providing autonomous robotics and vision sensors that operate in space and on the surfaces of the moon and mars. In addition, it offers satellite systems and spacecraft to enable space-based services, including space-based broadband internet connectivity from low earth orbit satellite constellations. Further, the company provides products and services of defense intelligence systems. It serves government agencies, prime contractors, and space companies. The company was formerly known as Neptune Acquisition Holdings Inc. and changed its name to MDA Ltd. in March 2021. MDA Ltd. was founded in 1969 and is headquartered in Brampton, Canada.

How the Company Makes Money

MDA generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by contracting with governmental agencies, defense organizations, and commercial enterprises. Key revenue streams include the design, manufacturing, and deployment of satellite systems and related technologies, which often involve long-term contracts and projects. Additionally, MDA earns income from providing data services derived from its satellite operations, such as Earth observation data and analytics. The company has established strategic partnerships with various aerospace organizations and technology firms, enhancing its capabilities and market reach, which further contributes to its financial performance.

MDA Space Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Strong income statement performance (revenue up 9.41% TTM; healthy margins), supported by a stable balance sheet with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.30). The main offset is weaker cash flow momentum, with free cash flow down 30.39% TTM, which raises sustainability risk despite solid cash conversion ratios.

Income Statement

MDA Space Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 9.41% increase in the TTM period, indicating robust demand in the aerospace sector. The company maintains healthy profitability with a gross profit margin of 28.23% and a net profit margin of 8.48%. EBIT and EBITDA margins are also solid at 11.08% and 15.83%, respectively, reflecting efficient operational management. However, the slight decline in gross profit margin compared to previous years suggests potential cost pressures.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet of MDA Space Ltd shows a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, indicating moderate leverage. The return on equity stands at 9.53%, showcasing effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio of 38.18% reflects a strong equity base relative to total assets, enhancing financial stability. However, the increase in total debt over the years requires careful monitoring to avoid potential financial strain.

Cash Flow

The cash flow analysis reveals a mixed picture. While the operating cash flow to net income ratio is healthy at 0.75, indicating good cash generation relative to profits, the free cash flow has declined by 30.39% in the TTM period. The free cash flow to net income ratio remains strong at 0.82, but the negative growth in free cash flow suggests potential challenges in sustaining cash reserves.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	1.08B	807.60M	641.20M	476.90M	394.13M
Gross Profit	374.60M	325.50M	275.60M	252.10M	191.30M	140.27M
EBITDA	233.80M	162.80M	131.20M	128.90M	75.70M	36.80M
Net Income	109.60M	79.40M	48.80M	26.30M	2.90M	-23.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.48B	2.60B	2.16B	1.75B	1.53B	1.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	195.70M	166.70M	22.50M	39.30M	83.60M	78.60M
Total Debt	431.30M	136.80M	525.00M	251.90M	160.40M	580.20M
Total Liabilities	2.15B	1.42B	1.10B	750.20M	572.90M	997.80M
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.18B	1.06B	1.00B	961.70M	457.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	547.40M	677.40M	-134.50M	-80.80M	19.60M	53.60M
Operating Cash Flow	735.70M	815.60M	13.50M	57.00M	72.10M	56.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-598.50M	-229.90M	-217.60M	-180.10M	-98.80M	-1.01B
Financing Cash Flow	-70.80M	-436.10M	187.40M	78.80M	30.60M	1.03B

MDA Space Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 42.91
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Positive
• 200DMA: Positive
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 42.91 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 37.78, above the 50-day MA of 34.52, and above the 200-day MA of 33.62, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 1.83 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 66.98 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.41 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MDA.

MDA Space Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FTG	74 Outperform	C$507.50M	21.66	17.40%	―	15.09%	31.55%
MAL	72 Outperform	C$1.45B	18.44	5.64%	0.93%	8.84%	131.58%
MDA	70 Outperform	C$5.12B	44.55	8.88%	―	57.77%	57.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
DPRO	52 Neutral	C$215.16M	-11.28	-48.12%	―	26.74%	53.14%
DFSC	45 Neutral	C$5.64M	-1.05	-134.93%	―	166.43%	75.12%
SNA	44 Neutral	C$7.44M	-1.62	―	―	-45.86%	36.73%

MDA Space Ltd Corporate Events

MDA Space Wins IDIQ Contract Slot on U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD Program

MDA Space Ltd. has secured an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency under its Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) program, enabling the company to compete for a wide range of future task orders supporting U.S. defence efforts across land, sea, air, cyberspace and space domains. The award reinforces MDA Space’s status as a trusted mission partner in defence and security, positioning the company to deepen its role in U.S. strategic defence initiatives and potentially expand its footprint in the lucrative military space and missile defence market.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Raises C$250 Million in Note Offering to Refinance Debt

MDA Space Ltd. has closed a C$250 million private placement of 7.00% senior unsecured notes due 2030, led by a syndicate of underwriters including RBC Capital Markets, BMO Capital Markets and Scotiabank. The company is using the net proceeds to refinance existing debt under its credit facility, a move that extends its debt maturity profile and may provide greater financial flexibility as it pursues growth opportunities in the global space sector, while the notes were placed with accredited investors in Canada and qualified institutional buyers in the United States under applicable securities law exemptions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$27.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Partners with Canadian Government and Telesat for Enhanced Military Satellite Communications

MDA Space Ltd. has entered into a strategic partnership with the Government of Canada and Telesat Corporation to enhance military satellite communications capabilities under the Enhanced Satellite Communication Project – Polar (ESCP-P). This initiative aims to bolster Canada’s Arctic sovereignty and defense operations, creating high-quality jobs and fostering innovation within the Canadian space and defense sectors. The partnership underscores the government’s commitment to Arctic security and leverages the expertise of MDA Space and Telesat in secure satellite communications.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$28.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Announces C$250 Million Note Offering to Enhance Financial Flexibility

MDA Space Ltd. announced a private placement offering of C$250 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, which is expected to close by December 23, 2025. The offering, led by major underwriters, aims to refinance existing debt and enhance the company’s financial flexibility and liquidity, supporting its pursuit of market growth opportunities. This strategic move is seen as a significant evolution in MDA Space’s capital structure, potentially impacting its operations and positioning within the industry.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Secures Major Contract for RADARSAT Constellation Mission

MDA Space Ltd has been awarded a $44.7 million contract by the Canadian Space Agency to procure and deliver critical components for the RADARSAT Constellation Mission replenishment satellite. This contract is part of the Canadian government’s $1.012 billion RADARSAT+ initiative, aimed at supporting satellite Earth observation needs. MDA Space is also one of three companies selected to conduct a concept study for a next-generation radar satellite system, which will address the growing demand for space-based Earth observation data. The announcement strengthens MDA’s position in the industry and highlights its ongoing collaboration with the Canadian government to deliver essential space-based solutions.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$48.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Advancements

MDA Space Ltd. reported a strong third quarter in 2025 with significant financial growth, highlighted by a 45% increase in revenues and a 49% rise in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. The company also completed the acquisition of SatixFy Communications Ltd., enhancing its satellite systems offerings, and demonstrated a breakthrough in satellite communication technology with its MDA AURORA digital beam forming capability. These developments, along with being named the 2025 Global Satellite Business of the Year, underscore MDA Space’s robust market positioning and its strategic focus on leveraging growth opportunities in the space technology sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$26.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Invests $10 Million in Maritime Launch to Boost Canada’s Space Capabilities

MDA Space Ltd. has announced a $10 million equity investment in Maritime Launch Services Inc., marking a significant step in enhancing Canada’s sovereign space capabilities. This investment is expected to accelerate the readiness of Spaceport Nova Scotia for orbital launch operations, providing a reliable domestic launch option for various clients and strengthening Canada’s position in the global launch services market. The partnership is anticipated to drive economic growth, create high-quality jobs, and attract global investment, while MDA Space will gain operational involvement and strategic rights within Maritime Launch.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Hold with a C$32.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

MDA Space Ltd. Responds to Share Price Fluctuations Amid Speculation

MDA Space Ltd. has addressed recent fluctuations in its share price, attributing them to speculative media reports regarding mergers and acquisitions among its customers. The company has stated that it does not comment on rumors and will provide a comprehensive business outlook in its upcoming earnings release on November 14, 2025.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$39.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Space Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.