MDA Space Ltd (TSE:MDA)
TSX:MDA
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MDA Space Ltd
(TSX:MDA)
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Rating:71Outperform
Price Target:
C$38.00
▲(10.08% Upside)
Action:ReiteratedDate:03/06/26
Overall score reflects strong operational growth and profitability recovery, supported by constructive technical momentum. The rating is tempered by uneven cash generation (and guidance for neutral/negative 2026 free cash flow) and a higher P/E that leaves less room for execution misses.
Positive Factors
Revenue growth & profitability
Sustained multi-year revenue expansion and a turnaround to consistent profitability indicate durable demand and execution capability. Rising sales scale engineering and production leverage, reducing unit costs over time and supporting repeat contract wins and sustained margins if program execution remains steady.
Negative Factors
Cash flow volatility & FCF risk
Management guidance for neutral-to-negative free cash flow highlights structural sensitivity to program timing, upfront supplier payments and elevated capex for capacity build. Persistent lumpiness in cash conversion can constrain reinvestment flexibility, debt capacity and ability to fund growth without external financing.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Revenue growth & profitability
Sustained multi-year revenue expansion and a turnaround to consistent profitability indicate durable demand and execution capability. Rising sales scale engineering and production leverage, reducing unit costs over time and supporting repeat contract wins and sustained margins if program execution remains steady.
Read all positive factors
MDA Space Ltd (MDA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$4.37B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.09M
Price to Earnings (P/E)30.5
Beta (1Y)0.64
Revenue Growth57.77%
EPS Growth57.55%
CountryCA
Employees3,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.45
Shares Outstanding126,488,396
10 Day Avg. Volume813,518
30 Day Avg. Volume1,087,175
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)2.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.03
P/FCF Ratio14.25
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$50.88Price Target Upside47.39% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering8
EPS Forecast (FY)1.44
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.81B
MDA Space Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MDA Ltd. designs, manufactures, and services space robotics, satellite systems and components, and intelligence systems in Canada, the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally. It offers geointelligence solutions that prov...
How the Company Makes Money
MDA primarily makes money by selling space products and services through long-term contracts and programs, with revenue recognized as it delivers engineering, manufacturing, integration, and on-orbit support milestones. Key revenue streams include...
MDA Space Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Mar 04, 2026
(Q4-2025)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 13, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
Overall the call presented a strongly positive operational and financial picture: record revenue and adjusted EBITDA, robust satellite production ramp plans, a large $40B 5‑year pipeline and strong liquidity and balance sheet metrics. Short‑term headwinds include reduced quarterly cash generation, margin pressure from program mix, the EchoStar contract cancellation (now resolved) and a more moderate 2026 growth guide with neutral/negative free cash flow expected. The positives — especially the magnitude of revenue growth, backlog, pipeline and strategic investments — materially outweigh the near‑term cash and margin pressures.Positive Updates
Record Fiscal 2025 Financial Results
Total revenue of $1.63 billion, up 51% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $324 million, up 49% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin ~19.8% (approximately 20%); adjusted net income $190 million, up 71% YoY; adjusted diluted EPS $1.46, up 66% YoY.
Negative Updates
Quarterly and Year‑over‑Year Cash Flow Weakness
Q4 cash from operations $51 million versus $376 million in Q4 2024; Q4 free cash flow negative $20 million versus +$315 million prior year. FY cash from operations $407 million (down from $813 million) and FY free cash flow $165 million (down from $615 million). Management attributes declines to normal program‑related working capital fluctuations and fewer advanced payments in 2025.
Read all updates
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive
Negative
Record Fiscal 2025 Financial Results
Total revenue of $1.63 billion, up 51% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA of $324 million, up 49% YoY; adjusted EBITDA margin ~19.8% (approximately 20%); adjusted net income $190 million, up 71% YoY; adjusted diluted EPS $1.46, up 66% YoY.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MDA Space’s 2026 guidance calls for revenues of $1.7–$1.9 billion (≈10% year‑over‑year growth at the midpoint), adjusted EBITDA of $320–$370 million (≈7% growth at the midpoint) with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 18–20%, capital expenditures of $225–$275 million and free cash flow expected to be neutral to negative due to working‑capital fluctuations and growth CapEx; this outlook is supported by a $4.0 billion backlog and a $40 billion five‑year pipeline (including $10 billion of down‑selected/follow‑on opportunities). The guidance follows record 2025 results of $1.63 billion revenue (+51% YoY), $324 million adjusted EBITDA (+49%, 19.8% margin), $242 million CapEx and $165 million free cash flow, and sits on a stronger balance sheet with net cash of $152 million, total available liquidity of $821 million, and net debt / trailing‑12‑month adjusted EBITDA of 0.4x; management also highlighted a 32% revenue CAGR since 2020 and a 7x backlog increase since 2020, and expects capital intensity to fall to under 15% of revenue in 2025–26 at the midpoint.MDA Space Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
74
Positive
Cash Flow
56
Neutral
| Breakdown | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 1.63B | 1.08B | 807.60M | 641.20M | 476.90M |
| Gross Profit | 325.10M | 325.50M | 275.60M | 252.10M | 191.30M |
| EBITDA | 254.00M | 162.80M | 154.00M | 128.90M | 75.70M |
| Net Income | 108.50M | 79.40M | 48.80M | 26.30M | 2.90M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 3.36B | 2.60B | 2.16B | 1.75B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 152.00M | 166.70M | 22.50M | 39.30M | 83.60M |
| Total Debt | 411.10M | 136.80M | 525.00M | 251.90M | 160.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 2.00B | 1.42B | 1.10B | 750.20M | 572.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.35B | 1.18B | 1.06B | 1.00B | 961.70M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | 232.20M | 677.40M | -134.50M | -80.80M | 19.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 407.50M | 815.60M | 13.50M | 57.00M | 72.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -614.60M | -229.90M | -217.60M | -180.10M | -98.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 196.30M | -436.10M | 187.40M | 78.80M | 30.60M |
MDA Space Ltd Technical Analysis
Negative
34.52
Price Trends
39.24
Negative
32.26
Positive
34.79
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.03
Positive
37.25
Neutral
9.82
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 34.52 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 41.94, below the 50-day MA of 39.24, and below the 200-day MA of 34.79, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.03 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 37.25 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.82 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:MDA.
MDA Space Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
74 Outperform | C$437.77M | 21.66 | 14.42% | ― | 15.09% | 31.55% | |
72 Outperform | C$1.17B | 18.44 | 5.52% | 0.93% | 8.84% | 131.58% | |
71 Outperform | C$4.37B | 30.51 | 8.88% | ― | 57.77% | 57.55% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
47 Neutral | C$7.68M | -1.62 | 77.69% | ― | -45.86% | 36.73% | |
46 Neutral | C$5.98M | -1.05 | -215.48% | ― | 166.43% | 75.12% | |
45 Neutral | C$147.01M | -6.53 | -48.00% | ― | 26.74% | 53.14% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:MDA
MDA Space Ltd
34.52
7.03
25.57%
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0.00%
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MDA Space Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
MDA Space Raises US$300 Million in NYSE Debut to Fuel Global Growth
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
MDA Space Ltd. has completed its initial public offering in the United States, issuing 9,836,065 common shares at US$30.50 per share for gross proceeds of about US$300 million and listing its stock on the New York Stock Exchange alongside its exis...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
MDA Space Raises US$300 Million in U.S. IPO and Secures NYSE Listing
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
MDA Space Ltd., a Canadian aerospace and defence technology company focused on robotics, satellite systems and geointelligence, has established itself as a global leader in communications satellites, Earth and space observation, and space infrastr...
Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MDA Space Posts Record 2025 Results and Expands Defence and Satellite Growth Platform
Positive
Mar 4, 2026
MDA Space reported a record fiscal 2025 with revenues rising 51.2% year over year to $1.63 billion and adjusted EBITDA climbing 49.2% to $323.9 million, supported largely by strong growth in its Satellite Systems business. The company ended the ye...
Executive/Board Changes
MDA Space Director Alison Alfers Resigns; Board Launches Search for Successor
Negative
Mar 2, 2026
MDA Space Ltd. announced that board member Alison Alfers has resigned from the Board of Directors, effective March 3, 2026, due to unexpected family circumstances. Alfers, who joined the board in 2022, is credited with helping the company navigate...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board Changes
MDA Space launches 49North defence subsidiary, names Joe Armstrong president
Positive
Feb 19, 2026
MDA Space has created 49North, a wholly owned Canadian defence subsidiary headquartered in Ottawa to deliver secure, multi-domain C4ISR and mission-critical capabilities for national defence needs beyond the space domain. The unit is designed to c...
Financial Disclosures
MDA Space Sets March 4 Call for Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Results
Neutral
Feb 10, 2026
MDA Space Ltd. will release its fourth quarter and full-year 2025 financial results before markets open on March 4, 2026, and management will discuss the performance on a conference call and webcast at 8:30 a.m. ET that same day. The company will ...
Business Operations and Strategy
MDA Space, Hanwha Sign MOU on Korea’s K-LEO Military Satellite Constellation
Positive
Jan 26, 2026
MDA Space has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with South Korea’s Hanwha Systems to explore collaboration on the development of Korea’s sovereign Low Earth Orbit defence constellation (K-LEO). The prospective partnership will asses...
Business Operations and Strategy
MDA Space Wins IDIQ Contract Slot on U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD Program
Positive
Jan 8, 2026
MDA Space Ltd. has secured an indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract from the U.S. Missile Defense Agency under its Scalable Homeland Innovative Enterprise Layered Defense (SHIELD) program, enabling the company to compete for a wi...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.