MDA Space Ltd (MDA) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: C$3.41B
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 1.09M
• Price to Earnings (P/E): 30.3
• Beta (1Y): 0.95
• Revenue Growth: 57.77%
• EPS Growth: 57.55%
• Country: CA
• Employees: 3,400
• Sector: Industrials
• Sector Strength: 72
• Industry: Aerospace & Defense
• EPS (TTM): 0.35
• Shares Outstanding: 126,301,476
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 813,518
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 1,087,175
• PEG Ratio: 0.73
• Price to Book (P/B): 3.02
• Price to Sales (P/S): 3.28
• P/FCF Ratio: 5.24
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: N/A
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: N/A
• 1Y Price Target: C$39.80
• Price Target Upside: 47.41% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5
• EPS Forecast (FY): N/A
• Revenue Forecast (FY): N/A

• Rating: 70 Outperform
• Price Target: C$27.00 ▲(0.00% Upside)

MDA Space Ltd's strong financial performance and optimistic earnings guidance are key strengths, supported by a robust backlog and strategic investments. However, technical indicators suggest bearish momentum, and valuation metrics indicate the stock may be overvalued. Challenges from contract termination and program delays also weigh on the outlook.

Positive Factors

Revenue Growth

Strong revenue growth indicates robust demand for MDA's products and services, supporting long-term business expansion and market presence.

Backlog Strength

A substantial backlog provides revenue visibility and stability, ensuring sustained operations and strategic planning over the coming years.

Strategic Investments

Investments in strategic areas like space capabilities enhance MDA's competitive edge and position in the growing aerospace market.

Negative Factors

Contract Termination

The termination of a major contract could impact future revenue streams and necessitates finding new opportunities to fill the gap.

Program Delays

Delays in key programs can affect delivery timelines and customer satisfaction, potentially impacting MDA's reputation and future contracts.

Rising Debt Levels

Increasing debt levels can strain financial flexibility and cash flow, posing risks to long-term financial health and investment capacity.

MDA Space Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

MDA Space Ltd (MDA) is a leading provider of advanced space-based technologies and services, operating primarily in the aerospace and defense sectors. The company specializes in satellite systems, Earth observation solutions, and space robotics, delivering innovative products and services that enhance national security, environmental monitoring, and space exploration capabilities. MDA's portfolio includes satellite communications systems, radar imaging satellites, and robotic systems for space applications, catering to both commercial and government clients worldwide.

How the Company Makes Money

MDA generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by contracting with governmental agencies, defense organizations, and commercial enterprises. Key revenue streams include the design, manufacturing, and deployment of satellite systems and related technologies, which often involve long-term contracts and projects. Additionally, MDA earns income from providing data services derived from its satellite operations, such as Earth observation data and analytics. The company has established strategic partnerships with various aerospace organizations and technology firms, enhancing its capabilities and market reach, which further contributes to its financial performance.

MDA Space Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary

MDA Ltd exhibits strong financial health with robust revenue growth and stable profitability. The balance sheet reflects a balanced leverage position and effective equity utilization. While the cash flow statement indicates some challenges in free cash flow growth, the company maintains a solid cash generation capability. Overall, MDA Ltd is well-positioned in the Aerospace & Defense industry with a positive financial outlook.

Income Statement

MDA Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a 10.75% increase in the TTM period, indicating robust demand and market presence. The gross profit margin of 24.54% and net profit margin of 8.48% reflect solid profitability, although slightly lower than previous periods. The EBIT and EBITDA margins are healthy at 13.29% and 20.43% respectively, showcasing efficient operational management. Overall, the income statement reflects a positive growth trajectory and stable profitability.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet shows a moderate debt-to-equity ratio of 0.30, indicating a balanced approach to leveraging. The return on equity (ROE) of 9.53% is commendable, reflecting effective use of equity to generate profits. The equity ratio stands at 40.62%, suggesting a solid equity base. While the company maintains a stable financial position, the increase in total debt over previous periods warrants monitoring.

Cash Flow

The cash flow statement reveals a decline in free cash flow growth by 15.21%, which could indicate potential cash management challenges. However, the operating cash flow to net income ratio of 0.75 and free cash flow to net income ratio of 0.74 suggest that the company is generating sufficient cash relative to its net income. Despite the recent decline in free cash flow, the overall cash flow position remains relatively strong.

Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue	1.48B	1.08B	807.60M	641.20M	476.90M	394.13M
Gross Profit	374.60M	325.50M	275.60M	252.10M	191.30M	140.27M
EBITDA	233.80M	162.80M	131.20M	128.90M	75.70M	36.80M
Net Income	109.60M	79.40M	48.80M	26.30M	2.90M	-23.07M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	3.48B	2.60B	2.16B	1.75B	1.53B	1.46B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	195.70M	166.70M	22.50M	39.30M	83.60M	78.60M
Total Debt	431.30M	136.80M	525.00M	251.90M	160.40M	580.20M
Total Liabilities	2.15B	1.42B	1.10B	750.20M	572.90M	997.80M
Stockholders Equity	1.33B	1.18B	1.06B	1.00B	961.70M	457.40M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	547.40M	677.40M	-134.50M	-80.80M	19.60M	53.60M
Operating Cash Flow	735.70M	815.60M	13.50M	57.00M	72.10M	56.40M
Investing Cash Flow	-598.50M	-229.90M	-217.60M	-180.10M	-98.80M	-1.01B
Financing Cash Flow	-70.80M	-436.10M	187.40M	78.80M	30.60M	1.03B

MDA Space Ltd Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Neutral
• Last Price: 27.00
• 50DMA: Positive
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Negative

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 27 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 24.91, above the 50-day MA of 26.71, and below the 200-day MA of 31.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.11 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.46 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 80.72 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TSE:MDA.

MDA Space Ltd Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
FTG	78 Outperform	C$294.28M	21.01	17.40%	―	15.09%	31.55%
CAE	72 Outperform	$13.81B	31.58	9.00%	―	9.12%	―
MAL	72 Outperform	C$1.05B	23.93	5.64%	0.93%	8.84%	131.58%
MDA	70 Outperform	C$3.41B	30.30	8.88%	―	57.77%	57.55%
Sector *	63 Neutral	$10.79B	15.43	7.44%	2.01%	2.89%	-14.66%
BBD.A	63 Neutral	C$23.78B	41.29	―	―	6.60%	-1.71%
BBD.B	62 Neutral	$23.78B	40.99	―	―	6.60%	-1.71%

MDA Space Ltd Corporate Events

MDA Space Ltd. Announces C$250 Million Note Offering to Enhance Financial Flexibility

MDA Space Ltd. announced a private placement offering of C$250 million in senior unsecured notes due 2030, which is expected to close by December 23, 2025. The offering, led by major underwriters, aims to refinance existing debt and enhance the company’s financial flexibility and liquidity, supporting its pursuit of market growth opportunities. This strategic move is seen as a significant evolution in MDA Space’s capital structure, potentially impacting its operations and positioning within the industry.

MDA Space Secures Major Contract for RADARSAT Constellation Mission

MDA Space Ltd has been awarded a $44.7 million contract by the Canadian Space Agency to procure and deliver critical components for the RADARSAT Constellation Mission replenishment satellite. This contract is part of the Canadian government’s $1.012 billion RADARSAT+ initiative, aimed at supporting satellite Earth observation needs. MDA Space is also one of three companies selected to conduct a concept study for a next-generation radar satellite system, which will address the growing demand for space-based Earth observation data. The announcement strengthens MDA’s position in the industry and highlights its ongoing collaboration with the Canadian government to deliver essential space-based solutions.

MDA Space Ltd. Reports Strong Q3 2025 Results and Strategic Advancements

MDA Space Ltd. reported a strong third quarter in 2025 with significant financial growth, highlighted by a 45% increase in revenues and a 49% rise in adjusted EBITDA year-over-year. The company also completed the acquisition of SatixFy Communications Ltd., enhancing its satellite systems offerings, and demonstrated a breakthrough in satellite communication technology with its MDA AURORA digital beam forming capability. These developments, along with being named the 2025 Global Satellite Business of the Year, underscore MDA Space’s robust market positioning and its strategic focus on leveraging growth opportunities in the space technology sector.

MDA Space Invests $10 Million in Maritime Launch to Boost Canada’s Space Capabilities

MDA Space Ltd. has announced a $10 million equity investment in Maritime Launch Services Inc., marking a significant step in enhancing Canada’s sovereign space capabilities. This investment is expected to accelerate the readiness of Spaceport Nova Scotia for orbital launch operations, providing a reliable domestic launch option for various clients and strengthening Canada’s position in the global launch services market. The partnership is anticipated to drive economic growth, create high-quality jobs, and attract global investment, while MDA Space will gain operational involvement and strategic rights within Maritime Launch.

MDA Space Ltd. Responds to Share Price Fluctuations Amid Speculation

MDA Space Ltd. has addressed recent fluctuations in its share price, attributing them to speculative media reports regarding mergers and acquisitions among its customers. The company has stated that it does not comment on rumors and will provide a comprehensive business outlook in its upcoming earnings release on November 14, 2025.

MDA Space Ltd. Announces Q3 2025 Earnings Release and Conference Call

MDA Space Ltd. has announced the release of its third quarter 2025 financial results, scheduled for November 14, 2025, before market opening. The company will hold a conference call and webcast to discuss these results, which will be accessible live and as a replay on their Investor Relations website. This announcement underscores MDA’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its stakeholders, providing insights into its financial performance and strategic direction.

MDA Space to Enhance Canadian Space Security with New SDA Services

MDA Space Ltd. has been selected to provide enhanced space situational awareness services to the Canadian Department of National Defence, in collaboration with ThothX Group. This partnership highlights the growing importance of Space Domain Awareness (SDA) in protecting Canada’s space assets from increasing orbital congestion. The new service will utilize ThothX’s Earthfence Radar Capability and MDA’s secure data management to track and assess satellites and space objects in geosynchronous orbit. This initiative underscores Canadian leadership in the global SDA market and aims to address the escalating risks to space-based infrastructure from orbital debris and potential collisions.

MDA Space Ltd Appoints New Managing Director for UK Operations

MDA Space Ltd has appointed Andrew Stanniland as the new Managing Director of MDA Space UK, effective September 10, 2025. Stanniland, who has over 30 years of experience in the space sector, will lead the UK operations from the Didcot office, aiming to drive growth and innovation. His appointment is seen as a strategic move to strengthen MDA Space’s presence in the UK and capitalize on new opportunities in the evolving space market. Stanniland succeeds Anita Bernie, who has contributed significantly to the company over the past three years.

MDA Space Ltd. Faces Contract Termination by EchoStar, Maintains Growth Outlook

MDA Space Ltd. announced that EchoStar Corporation has terminated their constellation contract due to a shift in EchoStar’s business strategy following spectrum allocation discussions with the FCC. Despite this setback, MDA Space will be compensated for termination costs and remains focused on its $4.6 billion backlog, excluding the EchoStar contract, which ensures revenue growth through 2025. The company continues to pursue opportunities in digital satellite constellations for broadband data and direct-to-device communication satellites, maintaining its fiscal 2025 financial outlook.