MDA Space Ltd. (TSE:MDA)
TSX:MDA
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MDA Space Ltd
(TSX:MDA)
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Rating:69Neutral
Price Target:
C$59.00
▲(22.53% Upside)
Action:Downgraded
Date:05/28/26
The score is driven primarily by solid financial strength (growth and improving leverage) but is held back by weak recent cash conversion and softer margins. Technicals show a strong uptrend, though overbought readings raise pullback risk. Valuation is a key drag due to the high P/E, while the earnings call was broadly constructive on growth and profitability but acknowledged near-term free-cash-flow pressure and higher CapEx.
Positive Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth
Sustained top-line growth driven by contract-based Satellite Systems, Robotics and Geointelligence builds durable revenue visibility. Multi-year expansion into larger programs supports scale, engineering leverage and longer-term customer relationships that underpin recurring program wins.
Negative Factors
Weak Free Cash Flow
Despite growth, near-zero TTM free cash flow and a material Q1 FCF decline signal persistent cash conversion stress. This reduces self-funding capacity for program ramp, increases reliance on liquidity or markets, and raises execution risk if program payments or working capital trends worsen.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Multi-year Revenue Growth
Sustained top-line growth driven by contract-based Satellite Systems, Robotics and Geointelligence builds durable revenue visibility. Multi-year expansion into larger programs supports scale, engineering leverage and longer-term customer relationships that underpin recurring program wins.
Read all positive factors
MDA Space Ltd (MDA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$7.42B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)1.22M
Price to Earnings (P/E)65.3
Beta (1Y)0.95
Revenue Growth42.91%
EPS Growth2.84%
CountryCA
Employees3,400
SectorIndustrials
Sector Strength72
IndustryAerospace & Defense
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.83
Shares Outstanding138,659,400
10 Day Avg. Volume1,595,339
30 Day Avg. Volume1,222,823
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.96
Price to Book (P/B)2.44
Price to Sales (P/S)2.03
P/FCF Ratio14.25
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$62.58Price Target Upside29.96% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering12
EPS Forecast (FY)1.45
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$1.83B
MDA Space Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
MDA Ltd., a global technology firm headquartered in Brampton, Canada, specializes in the design, manufacturing, and maintenance of advanced space robotics, satellite systems and their components, and intelligence platforms. The company's operation...
How the Company Makes Money
MDA primarily makes money by selling space hardware, mission solutions, and related services under customer contracts, with revenue typically recognized as work is performed and products are delivered.
Key revenue streams include:
- Space systems...
MDA Space Ltd Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 07, 2026
(Q1-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Aug 07, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call presented a dominant set of positive operational and financial developments—strong YoY revenue growth (+32%), margin improvement, multiple contract wins, key technical milestones, and a successful U.S. IPO that strengthened liquidity—while also acknowledging near-term cash flow pressures (negative free cash flow in Q1), elevated CapEx to scale production, a modest sequential revenue decline due to timing, and the typical timing risks around government procurements and pipeline conversions. On balance, the positives (growth, profitability, strategic wins, and a large addressable pipeline) significantly outweigh the near-term liquidity and timing challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q1 revenue of $464M, up $113M or 32% year-over-year, driven by all three business areas and in line with company expectations.
Negative Updates
Negative Free Cash Flow and Reduced Operating Cash
Q1 free cash flow was negative $28M versus positive $205M in Q1 2025. Cash from operations decreased to $61M from $267M the prior year (a decline of ~77%), driven by lower working capital contributions and higher CapEx.
Read all updates
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Top-Line Growth
Q1 revenue of $464M, up $113M or 32% year-over-year, driven by all three business areas and in line with company expectations.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
MDA Space reiterated its FY2026 guidance: revenues $1.7–$1.9B (midpoint $1.8B, ~10% YoY at midpoint), adjusted EBITDA $320–$370M (~7% YoY at midpoint) with adjusted EBITDA margin 18–20%, CapEx $225–$275M, and full‑year free cash flow expected neutral to negative. In Q1 the company reported revenues of $464M (+32% YoY), gross profit $115M (24.8% margin, +45% YoY), adjusted EBITDA $91M (19.5% margin, +32% YoY), adjusted net income $51M (+32% YoY) and adjusted diluted EPS $0.38 (+27% YoY); by segment Satellite Systems $313M (+41%), Robotics & Space Operations $92M (+18%) and Geointelligence $59M (+15%). Quarter-end backlog was $3.7B (down $300M), cash on hand $544M, IPO proceeds USD 341M, $699M available under the credit facility and total liquidity ≈ $1.2B; Q1 CapEx was $88M (vs $62M prior) with operating cash flow $61M (vs $267M prior) and Q1 free cash flow -$28M (vs +$205M prior). The company cites a $40B opportunity pipeline (including $10B downselected/follow‑on), an addressable satellite market of 20–30% of an expected 40k–50k launches (5% progressed into active pursuits → ~$30B of cumulative Satellite Systems opportunities over five years), a Robotics pipeline >$3B, a Geointelligence pipeline >$7B, and CHORUS activity (launch window late 2026, 9 contracts and 32 letters of interest).MDA Space Ltd Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
78
Positive
Balance Sheet
82
Very Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 1.75B | 1.63B | 1.08B | 807.60M | 641.20M | 476.90M |
| Gross Profit | 366.40M | 325.10M | 325.50M | 275.60M | 252.10M | 191.30M |
| EBITDA | 291.70M | 254.00M | 162.80M | 154.00M | 128.90M | 75.70M |
| Net Income | 105.20M | 108.50M | 79.40M | 48.80M | 26.30M | 2.90M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 3.80B | 3.36B | 2.60B | 2.16B | 1.75B | 1.53B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 544.00M | 152.00M | 166.70M | 22.50M | 39.30M | 83.60M |
| Total Debt | 380.70M | 411.10M | 136.80M | 525.00M | 251.90M | 160.40M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.95B | 2.00B | 1.42B | 1.10B | 750.20M | 572.90M |
| Stockholders Equity | 1.85B | 1.35B | 1.18B | 1.06B | 1.00B | 961.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -1.30M | 232.20M | 677.40M | -134.50M | -80.80M | 19.60M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 201.40M | 407.50M | 815.60M | 13.50M | 57.00M | 72.10M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -632.20M | -614.60M | -229.90M | -217.60M | -180.10M | -98.80M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 601.40M | 196.30M | -436.10M | 187.40M | 78.80M | 30.60M |
MDA Space Ltd Technical Analysis
Positive
48.15
Price Trends
47.86
Positive
43.46
Positive
37.16
Positive
Market Momentum
2.94
Positive
48.81
Neutral
9.07
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 48.15 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 56.52, above the 50-day MA of 47.86, and above the 200-day MA of 37.16, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 2.94 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 48.81 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 9.07 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MDA.
MDA Space Ltd Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (63)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
69 Neutral | C$7.42B | 65.29 | 7.24% | ― | 42.91% | 2.84% | |
69 Neutral | C$562.63M | 42.01 | 14.24% | ― | 15.55% | -0.75% | |
66 Neutral | C$1.82B | 40.46 | 5.48% | 0.93% | 10.42% | 12.81% | |
63 Neutral | $10.79B | 15.43 | 7.44% | 2.01% | 2.89% | -14.66% | |
54 Neutral | C$318.61M | -11.22 | -29.13% | ― | 25.32% | 68.42% | |
46 Neutral | C$10.39M | -0.45 | -132.31% | ― | 104.47% | 90.11% | |
42 Neutral | C$7.68M | -1.35 | 77.69% | ― | -22.14% | -15.63% |
* Industrials Sector Average
TSE:MDA
MDA Space Ltd
53.51
24.31
83.25%
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MDA Space Ltd Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
MDA Space Raises US$300 Million in NYSE Debut to Fuel Global Growth
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
MDA Space Ltd. has completed its initial public offering in the United States, issuing 9,836,065 common shares at US$30.50 per share for gross proceeds of about US$300 million and listing its stock on the New York Stock Exchange alongside its exis...
Business Operations and StrategyDelistings and Listing ChangesPrivate Placements and Financing
MDA Space Raises US$300 Million in U.S. IPO and Secures NYSE Listing
Positive
Mar 16, 2026
MDA Space Ltd., a Canadian aerospace and defence technology company focused on robotics, satellite systems and geointelligence, has established itself as a global leader in communications satellites, Earth and space observation, and space infrastr...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.