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MDA Ltd (TSE:MDA)
TSX:MDA
Canadian Market

MDA Ltd (MDA) AI Stock Analysis

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MDA Ltd

(TSX:MDA)

Rating:80Outperform
Price Target:
C$30.00
▲(2.01%Upside)
MDA Ltd's strong financial performance and positive earnings call impact the overall score significantly. While valuation concerns and technical indicators are less favorable, strategic acquisitions and solid growth prospects in the aerospace sector bolster the stock's attractiveness.
Positive Factors
Contract Awards
The strength in Satellite Systems is benefiting from the ramp of Telesat Lightspeed and the recent Globalstar contract award.
Financial Guidance
FY2025 guidance for revenue and EBITDA is well above consensus, indicating strong expected growth.
Valuation
The stock's valuation is considered attractive given MDA's strong backlog and pipeline.
Negative Factors
Tariffs
The potential impact of U.S. tariffs on Canadian imports remains uncertain, but is considered manageable due to MDA's non-U.S. backlog and other mitigating factors.

MDA Ltd (MDA) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

MDA Ltd Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionMDA Ltd (MDA) is a leading provider of advanced technology and services in the fields of aerospace and defense, earth observation, and satellite communications. The company specializes in delivering innovative solutions and products that cater to both commercial and government sectors, leveraging cutting-edge technologies to address complex challenges in space and satellite systems.
How the Company Makes MoneyMDA Ltd generates revenue through a diverse range of streams, including the sale of specialized satellite and space systems, earth observation services, and engineering solutions for aerospace and defense applications. The company earns money by securing contracts with government agencies for defense and space exploration projects, as well as with commercial clients seeking satellite communication and data services. Key partnerships with industry leaders and government bodies also play a significant role in MDA's revenue generation, as they collaborate on large-scale projects and technology development initiatives to expand their market presence and enhance service offerings.

MDA Ltd Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: 19.36%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 08, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call highlighted significant revenue and profit growth, a strong contract backlog, and a solid financial position. However, concerns about potential NASA budget cuts affecting the Canadarm3 project and tariff issues present challenges. Despite these concerns, the reaffirmation of the 2025 financial outlook and strategic acquisition plans suggest a positive outlook.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Significant Revenue and Profit Growth
Q1 revenues totaled CAD 351 million, up 68% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was CAD 69 million, up 63% versus last year; and adjusted EBITDA margin was 19.5%.
Strong Backlog and Contract Wins
Backlog of CAD 4.8 billion, with significant enhancement from a CAD 1.1 billion follow-on contract from Globalstar for next-generation LEO constellation.
Positive Cash Flow and Financial Position
Operating cash flow was strong at CAD 267 million, ending the quarter with no debt and a net cash position of CAD 376 million.
Acquisition to Enhance Offerings
Entered into a definitive agreement to acquire SatixFy Communications Ltd. for USD 269 million, expected to enhance end-to-end Satellite Systems offering.
Reaffirmed 2025 Financial Outlook
Revenues expected to be between CAD 1.5 billion to CAD 1.65 billion, with adjusted EBITDA expected between CAD 290 million to CAD 320 million.
Negative Updates
NASA Budget Uncertainty
Concern over potential U.S. budget cuts affecting the Gateway project, part of the Artemis program, which may impact Canadarm3, despite current commitments from the Canadian Space Agency.
Steady GeoIntelligence Revenues
GeoIntelligence business revenues of CAD 52 million were flat year-over-year, reflecting steady but not growing work volumes.
Gross Margin Decline
Gross margin in Q1 was 22.7%, down from 27.7% in the same period of 2024, influenced by program mix and higher depreciation expenses.
Tariff Concerns
Ongoing U.S. and Canadian tariff negotiations could impact cost structures, though MDA Space perceives these as manageable.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025, MDA Space Ltd. reported strong financial performance, with revenues reaching CAD 351 million, marking a 68% increase year-over-year. The company's adjusted EBITDA rose to CAD 69 million, up 63% from the previous year, resulting in an adjusted EBITDA margin of 19.5%. Operating cash flow was robust at CAD 267 million, and the company ended the quarter with no debt and a net cash position of CAD 376 million. MDA Space reaffirmed its full-year 2025 financial outlook, projecting revenues between CAD 1.5 billion and CAD 1.65 billion and full-year adjusted EBITDA between CAD 290 million and CAD 320 million. The company also expects capital expenditures to range from CAD 210 million to CAD 240 million, while anticipating free cash flow to be neutral to positive for the year. MDA Space's backlog stood at CAD 4.8 billion, providing substantial revenue visibility beyond 2025, and the company continues to see momentum in its Satellite Systems business, bolstered by a CAD 1.1 billion contract with Globalstar for a next-generation low Earth orbit constellation.

MDA Ltd Financial Statement Overview

Summary
MDA Ltd has shown impressive financial growth and improvement across its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow. Revenue growth has been strong, with significant profit margin improvements indicating better operational efficiency. The balance sheet shows reduced leverage with a strong equity ratio, though debt levels should be monitored. Cash flow is robust, with free cash flow turning positive and strong cash generation relative to profits, reflecting solid financial management.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
MDA Ltd has demonstrated strong revenue growth with a steady increase from $295.6M in 2020 to $1.08B in 2024, showing a CAGR of over 38%. Gross profit margins have improved to 26.1% in 2024 from 11.4% in 2020, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Net profit margin rose to 7.4% in 2024 from a negative margin in 2020, showcasing improved profitability. EBIT and EBITDA margins have also improved significantly, reflecting robust core operational performance.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The company's debt-to-equity ratio has decreased from 1.27 in 2020 to 0.12 in 2024, indicating a significant improvement in capital structure and leverage reduction. Return on equity (ROE) improved to 6.8% in 2024 from negative returns in earlier years, reflecting better profitability relative to shareholder equity. Equity ratio remained strong at 45.3% in 2024, highlighting a stable financial foundation. However, the total debt is still substantial, requiring ongoing attention.
Cash Flow
90
Very Positive
MDA Ltd's free cash flow turned positive with a substantial increase from negative $179.7M in 2023 to $614.8M in 2024, reflecting improved cash management and operational efficiency. Operating cash flow to net income ratio is exceptionally high at 10.27 in 2024, suggesting strong cash generation relative to reported profits. Free cash flow to net income ratio is also positive, indicating a robust cash flow position.
Breakdown
Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
1.08B807.60M641.20M476.90M295.60M
Gross Profit
281.70M244.00M228.40M167.80M33.80M
EBIT
106.80M77.50M74.60M44.20M-40.40M
EBITDA
230.00M154.00M150.80M124.00M43.60M
Net Income Common Stockholders
79.40M48.80M26.30M2.90M-17.30M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
166.70M22.50M39.30M83.60M78.60M
Total Assets
2.60B2.16B1.75B1.53B1.46B
Total Debt
136.80M525.00M251.90M160.40M580.20M
Net Debt
-29.90M502.50M212.60M76.80M501.60M
Total Liabilities
1.42B1.10B750.20M572.90M997.80M
Stockholders Equity
1.18B1.06B1.00B961.70M457.40M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
614.80M-179.70M-123.10M-22.50M43.10M
Operating Cash Flow
815.60M13.50M57.00M72.10M56.40M
Investing Cash Flow
-229.90M-217.60M-180.10M-98.80M-1.01B
Financing Cash Flow
-436.10M187.40M78.80M30.60M1.03B

MDA Ltd Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price29.41
Price Trends
50DMA
26.28
Positive
100DMA
25.96
Positive
200DMA
24.52
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.90
Negative
RSI
59.02
Neutral
STOCH
66.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:MDA, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 29.41 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 27.91, above the 50-day MA of 26.28, and above the 200-day MA of 24.52, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.90 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 59.02 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 66.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:MDA.

MDA Ltd Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (66)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
TSMDA
80
Outperform
C$3.61B36.188.54%49.98%108.76%
TSMAL
78
Outperform
C$1.02B25.575.12%0.57%8.59%242.80%
TSFTG
75
Outperform
C$288.24M21.3617.82%15.25%48.96%
73
Outperform
$10.20B27.03-18.58%16.31%4.12%
69
Neutral
C$10.20B27.03-23.10%16.31%4.12%
TSCAE
67
Neutral
$11.88B29.228.87%1.44%-183.14%
66
Neutral
$4.49B12.345.40%248.65%4.13%-12.33%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:MDA
MDA Ltd
28.79
16.12
127.23%
TSE:CAE
CAE
37.09
11.56
45.28%
TSE:BBD.B
Bombardier
103.32
14.40
16.19%
TSE:BBD.A
Bombardier Cl A MV
103.18
14.25
16.02%
TSE:MAL
Magellan Aerospace
18.03
9.74
117.49%
TSE:FTG
Firan Tech
11.25
5.81
106.80%

MDA Ltd Corporate Events

M&A TransactionsShareholder Meetings
MDA Space and SatixFy Amend Merger Agreement with Increased Offer
Positive
May 20, 2025

MDA Space Ltd. and SatixFy Communications Ltd. have amended their merger agreement, increasing the all-cash transaction offer to US$3.00 per ordinary share, valuing SatixFy at approximately US$280 million. This decision followed a competitive ‘go-shop’ process where SatixFy received a higher offer from a third party, leading to negotiations with MDA. The increased offer was deemed the best value for shareholders, with 57% of SatixFy shareholders already committed to supporting the revised merger agreement. The shareholder meeting to approve the merger has been postponed to allow for proper disclosure.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:MDA) stock is a Buy with a C$17.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on MDA Ltd stock, see the TSE:MDA Stock Forecast page.

Executive/Board ChangesShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and Strategy
MDA Space Announces 2025 AGM Results and Strategic Decisions
Neutral
May 8, 2025

MDA Space announced the results of its 2025 Annual General Meeting, where 69.22% of common shares were represented. The meeting saw the election of nine directors, the appointment of KPMG LLP as the independent auditor, and approval of the company’s executive compensation approach. These decisions reflect MDA Space’s commitment to maintaining robust governance and operational transparency, potentially strengthening its position in the space industry.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MDA Space Ltd. Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results and Strategic Acquisition
Positive
May 8, 2025

MDA Space Ltd. reported strong financial results for the first quarter of 2025, with a significant increase in revenue and backlog, driven by new contracts such as the Globalstar LEO constellation. The company achieved a 68% year-over-year revenue growth, reaching $351 million, and a 103% increase in adjusted net income. MDA Space’s strategic acquisition of SatixFy Communications is expected to enhance its satellite systems offerings, positioning the company well to capitalize on growing demand in the space industry. The reaffirmation of its 2025 financial outlook underscores its confidence in continued growth and market expansion.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
MDA Space Ltd. Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results and Strategic Expansion
Positive
May 8, 2025

MDA Space Ltd. reported a robust first quarter for 2025, with significant financial growth highlighted by a 46% increase in backlog and a 68% rise in revenues compared to the previous year. The company achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $68.6 million, marking a 63% year-over-year increase, and maintained a strong net cash position. Notably, MDA secured a major contract with Globalstar for its next-generation LEO constellation and announced the acquisition of SatixFy Communications, enhancing its satellite systems offerings. The company reaffirmed its positive financial outlook for 2025, anticipating continued growth driven by strategic initiatives and strong market demand.

Shareholder MeetingsFinancial Disclosures
MDA Space to Announce Q1 2025 Financial Results and Host Annual Shareholder Meeting
Neutral
Apr 16, 2025

MDA Space has announced it will release its first quarter 2025 financial results on May 8, 2025, followed by a conference call and webcast to discuss the results. Additionally, the company will conduct its Annual Meeting of Shareholders virtually on the same day, allowing shareholders to participate online. These events underscore MDA Space’s commitment to transparency and engagement with its stakeholders, potentially impacting its market position and investor relations.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
MDA Space Acquires SatixFy to Boost Digital Satellite Offerings
Positive
Apr 1, 2025

MDA Space Ltd. has announced the acquisition of SatixFy Communications Ltd. in a deal valued at approximately US$193 million. This acquisition is expected to enhance MDA Space’s satellite systems offerings by integrating SatixFy’s advanced technology portfolio, which includes over 60 patents and a specialized technical team. The move aims to strengthen MDA Space’s position in the rapidly growing digital satellite communications market, driven by increasing demand for satellite-based broadband and IoT connectivity. The acquisition will also allow MDA Space to retire SatixFy’s existing debt, further solidifying its market position.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.