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CAE Inc (TSE:CAE)
TSX:CAE
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CAE (CAE) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:CAE

CAE

(TSX:CAE)

Rating:78Outperform
Price Target:
C$45.00
▲(13.58% Upside)
CAE's strong financial performance and positive earnings call outlook are the most significant contributors to its score. Technical analysis indicates a positive trend but warns of overbought conditions. Valuation appears stretched, but recent leadership changes and strong fiscal results provide a positive outlook.
Positive Factors
Cash Flow Improvement
Management guided to a 150% conversion of earnings to free cash flow, which should help reduce net debt/EBITDA.
Defense Business Growth
CAE's defense business is on an upward trajectory with backlog doubling and positioned to benefit from increased Defense spending.
Leadership Changes
CAE announced Mathew Bromberg will be the new President and CEO, bringing extensive experience from Northrop Grumman and Pratt and Whitney.
Negative Factors
Civil Aviation Outlook
The Civil aviation segment faces headwinds with a conservative outlook and concerns over slower pilot hiring and travel demand.
Pilot Hiring
US commercial hiring is down 40% year-over-year, reflecting a significant slowdown in the recruitment of new pilots.
Training Center Utilization
Traffic at CAE's US training centers fell 4% year-over-year, suggesting a utilization rate of 72%, which is below estimates.

CAE (CAE) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

CAE Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionCAE Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides simulation training and critical operations support solutions worldwide. It operates through three segments: Civil Aviation, Defense and Security, and Healthcare. The Civil Aviation segment provides training solutions for flight, cabin, maintenance, and ground personnel in commercial, business, and helicopter aviation; flight simulation training devices; and ab initio pilot training and crew sourcing services, as well as end to end digitally enabled crew management, training operations solutions, and optimization software. The Defense and Security segment offers training and mission support solutions for defense forces across multi-domain operations, OEMs, government agencies and public safety organizations. The Healthcare segment provides integrated education and training solutions, including interventional and imaging simulations, curricula, audiovisual debriefing solutions, center management platforms, and patient simulators for healthcare students and clinical professionals, hospital and university simulation centers, medical and nursing schools, paramedic organizations, defense forces, medical societies, public health agencies and OEMs. The company was formerly known as CAE Industries Ltd. and changed its name to CAE Inc. in 1993. CAE Inc. was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Saint-Laurent, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyCAE generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by offering simulation-based training solutions and services to airlines, military organizations, and healthcare providers. Key revenue streams include the sale of flight simulators and training devices, training services provided to pilots and crew members, and maintenance services for simulation equipment. Additionally, CAE partners with various airlines and defense organizations to deliver customized training programs, further enhancing its revenue potential. The company's contracts with government agencies and commercial entities also contribute significantly to its earnings, ensuring a steady flow of income from long-term agreements and service contracts.

CAE Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 12, 2025
(Q4-2025)
|
% Change Since: 9.54%|
Next Earnings Date:Nov 18, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call reflects a strong financial performance with record free cash flow, significant backlog growth, and strong performance in both Civil and Defense segments. However, there are challenges in training center utilization and increased financial costs. Overall, the positive aspects significantly outweigh the challenges.
Q4-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Record Free Cash Flow and Backlog
Generated $289 million in free cash flow in Q4 and a record $814 million for the full year, translating to a cash conversion rate of 211%. Achieved a record end of year adjusted backlog of $20.1 billion, up 65% from last year.
Strong Civil Aviation Segment Performance
Civil segment achieved a record adjusted segment operating margin of 28.6% in Q4 and 21.5% for the year. Backlog grew 37% to a record $8.8 billion, supported by $3.7 billion in new orders.
Defense Segment Growth
Defense segment accelerated its path to greater profitability with an adjusted segment operating income margin of 9.2% in Q4 and doubled the adjusted Defense backlog to $11.3 billion.
Revenue and Income Growth
Consolidated revenue increased 13% in Q4 and 10% for the year. Adjusted segment operating income was up 33% to $732 million, while annual adjusted net income was $385.5 million, up from $0.87 last year to $1.21 per share.
Negative Updates
Reduced Training Center Utilization
Average training center utilization was 75% in Q4, down from 78% due to a reduction in pilot hiring in Americas related to OEM aircraft supply constraints.
Increased Finance and Tax Expenses
Net finance expense rose to $56.5 million from $52.4 million in Q4 last year. Effective tax rate increased to 25% from 14% last year.
Company Guidance
During the CAE Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2025 Conference Call, the company provided robust guidance for the upcoming fiscal year. CAE reported a record free cash flow of $814 million for the fiscal year, translating to a cash conversion rate of 211%. Civil aviation segment achieved a record adjusted segment operating margin of 28.6% in Q4 and 21.5% for the year. The defense segment showed significant improvement with an adjusted segment operating income margin of 9.2% in Q4. CAE's total consolidated revenue for the fiscal year increased by 10% to $4.7 billion, with an adjusted segment operating income up by 33% to $732 million. The company expects a mid to high single-digit percentage growth in segment operating income for Civil in fiscal 2026 and a low double-digit growth in Defense, with a continued focus on operational excellence and capital efficiency. The fiscal year 2026 will see a targeted free cash flow conversion rate of 150% and a reduction in net leverage to 2.5 times supported by sustained cash flow generation.

CAE Financial Statement Overview

Summary
CAE has shown strong financial performance with a notable revenue growth rate of 9.92%, improved profit margins, and robust cash flow generation. The balance sheet is stable with a balanced leverage approach, though maintaining leverage is crucial for continued financial health.
Income Statement
85
Very Positive
CAE has demonstrated robust financial performance with a consistent increase in total revenue over the years, reaching CAD 4.71 billion in 2025, marking a solid revenue growth rate of 9.92% from 2024 to 2025. The company achieved a gross profit margin of 27.61% and a significant improvement in net profit margin from negative to 8.61%. Additionally, the EBIT margin improved to 15.49%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. This reflects a strong recovery and growth trajectory in its financial health.
Balance Sheet
75
Positive
The balance sheet showcases a stable financial position with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.71, suggesting a balanced approach to leverage. The return on equity (ROE) improved significantly to 8.29%, showcasing effective utilization of equity. The equity ratio stands at 43.61%, indicating a solid equity base relative to total assets. While the debt levels are manageable, continuous monitoring is essential to maintain financial stability.
Cash Flow
80
Positive
Cash flow performance is strong, with the operating cash flow increasing to CAD 896.5 million, supporting robust free cash flow growth. The free cash flow to net income ratio is 1.12, indicating efficient cash generation relative to earnings. The operating cash flow to net income ratio of 2.21 further underscores the company's ability to convert income into cash. The upward trend in free cash flow demonstrates effective capital management and operational efficiency.
BreakdownMar 2025Mar 2024Mar 2023Mar 2022Mar 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue4.71B4.28B4.20B3.37B2.98B
Gross Profit1.30B1.15B1.17B955.50M765.00M
EBITDA1.12B117.70M747.00M548.10M351.00M
Net Income405.30M-304.00M222.70M141.70M-47.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets11.21B9.83B10.44B9.58B8.75B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments293.70M160.10M217.60M346.10M926.10M
Total Debt3.47B3.07B3.25B3.05B2.35B
Total Liabilities6.24B5.53B5.85B5.49B5.54B
Stockholders Equity4.89B4.22B4.51B4.01B3.14B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow452.40M126.30M-16.90M55.40M203.00M
Operating Cash Flow896.50M566.90M408.40M418.20M366.60M
Investing Cash Flow-732.30M-215.40M-400.70M-2.24B-343.40M
Financing Cash Flow-49.80M-395.30M-152.60M1.26B-21.30M

CAE Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price39.62
Price Trends
50DMA
38.42
Positive
100DMA
36.35
Positive
200DMA
34.68
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.23
Positive
RSI
54.22
Neutral
STOCH
53.45
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:CAE, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 39.62 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 39.63, above the 50-day MA of 38.42, and above the 200-day MA of 34.68, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.23 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 54.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 53.45 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:CAE.

CAE Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (59)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
78
Outperform
$12.61B30.988.87%7.89%
78
Outperform
C$5.25B44.659.64%57.21%136.79%
59
Neutral
AU$1.65B10.36-5.90%3.59%9.84%11.11%
$11.98B26.29
77
Outperform
C$314.82M22.0018.05%17.52%54.86%
70
Outperform
C$968.50M24.215.12%0.74%8.59%242.80%
63
Neutral
C$16.47B26.00-23.10%6.69%64.89%
* Industrials Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:CAE
CAE
39.62
16.64
72.41%
BDRBF
Bombardier
120.00
58.02
93.61%
TSE:BBD.A
Bombardier Cl A MV
166.22
80.76
94.50%
TSE:FTG
Firan Tech
12.48
6.38
104.59%
TSE:MAL
Magellan Aerospace
16.95
7.79
85.04%
TSE:MDA
MDA Ltd
42.07
27.62
191.14%

CAE Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
CAE Appoints Matthew Bromberg as New CEO Amid Leadership Transition
Positive
Jun 2, 2025

CAE Inc. has announced the appointment of Matthew Bromberg as its new President and CEO, effective August 13, 2025. This leadership change is part of an orderly transition following the departure of Marc Parent, who has significantly transformed CAE into a world leader in aviation training solutions. The company also appointed Calin Rovinescu as Executive Chairman and Sophie Brochu as Lead Independent Director, emphasizing CAE’s commitment to strong governance. Bromberg brings extensive experience in aerospace and defense, having held executive roles at Northrop Grumman and RTX Corp. His leadership is expected to drive CAE’s strategic growth and innovation.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAE) stock is a Buy with a C$33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CAE stock, see the TSE:CAE Stock Forecast page.

Business Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
CAE Inc. Reports Strong Fiscal 2025 Results, Poised for Continued Growth
Positive
May 13, 2025

CAE Inc. reported strong financial results for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2025, showcasing significant improvements across key metrics such as revenue, operating income, and free cash flow. The company achieved a record adjusted backlog and demonstrated robust cash conversion, driven by disciplined execution and efficient capital management. CAE’s strategic focus on operational rigor has led to increased profitability in its Defense segment and resilience in its Civil segment, despite external challenges. The company is poised for continued growth in fiscal 2026, supported by higher margins, strong free cash flow, and strategic partnerships, particularly in the defense sector.

The most recent analyst rating on (TSE:CAE) stock is a Buy with a C$33.00 price target. To see the full list of analyst forecasts on CAE stock, see the TSE:CAE Stock Forecast page.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Jul 01, 2025