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Happy Belly Food Group (TSE:HBFG)
:HBFG

Happy Belly Food Group (HBFG) AI Stock Analysis

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TSE:HBFG

Happy Belly Food Group

(HBFG)

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Neutral 45 (OpenAI - 4o)
Rating:45Neutral
Price Target:
C$2.00
▼(-12.28% Downside)
Happy Belly Food Group's overall stock score is primarily impacted by its financial performance, which shows strong revenue growth but significant profitability and cash flow challenges. Technical analysis indicates a bullish trend, but overbought signals suggest caution. The valuation is weak due to a negative P/E ratio and lack of dividend yield.
Positive Factors
Revenue Growth
The robust revenue growth indicates successful market penetration and increasing demand for HBFG's health-conscious products, supporting long-term business expansion.
Gross Profit Margin
A strong gross profit margin suggests effective cost management in production, allowing HBFG to maintain profitability as it scales operations.
Market Position
HBFG's focus on health-conscious products aligns with consumer trends, enhancing its competitive position in the growing market for healthier food options.
Negative Factors
Profitability Challenges
Ongoing profitability challenges indicate potential issues in cost management and operational efficiency, which could hinder long-term financial stability.
High Leverage
Significant leverage increases financial risk and limits flexibility, potentially impacting HBFG's ability to invest in growth opportunities.
Cash Flow Challenges
Negative cash flow growth highlights inefficiencies in cash generation, which could constrain HBFG's ability to fund operations and strategic initiatives.

Happy Belly Food Group (HBFG) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)

Happy Belly Food Group Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionHappy Belly Food Group Inc., a health and wellness company, provides plant-based food products in Canada. It offers breakfast cereal and other plant-based food products under the Holy Crap and Yamchops brands. The company was formerly known as Plant & Co. Brands Ltd. and changed its name to Happy Belly Food Group Inc. in September 2022. Happy Belly Food Group Inc. was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Vancouver, Canada.
How the Company Makes MoneyHappy Belly Food Group generates revenue through multiple streams, primarily by selling its proprietary food and beverage products to retail and food service customers. The company partners with grocery chains, convenience stores, and restaurants, providing them with a range of items that meet consumer demand for healthier options. Additionally, HBFG engages in private label manufacturing, allowing retailers to offer customized products under their own branding, which contributes significantly to the company's earnings. The company also invests in marketing and promotional strategies to increase brand awareness and drive sales, further enhancing its revenue potential.

Happy Belly Food Group Financial Statement Overview

Summary
Happy Belly Food Group shows strong revenue growth but faces significant challenges in profitability and cash flow. High leverage and negative returns on equity indicate financial risk, while negative cash flow metrics suggest liquidity concerns.
Income Statement
45
Neutral
Happy Belly Food Group shows a strong revenue growth rate of 34.35% in the TTM, indicating positive sales momentum. However, the company is struggling with profitability, as evidenced by negative net profit, EBIT, and EBITDA margins. The gross profit margin is healthy at 64.69%, but the consistent negative net income suggests challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.
Balance Sheet
40
Negative
The company's balance sheet reveals a high debt-to-equity ratio of 3.53, indicating significant leverage and potential financial risk. The return on equity is negative, reflecting ongoing losses. The equity ratio is not explicitly calculated, but the high leverage suggests limited equity relative to assets, posing a risk to financial stability.
Cash Flow
30
Negative
Cash flow analysis shows a negative free cash flow growth rate of -61.10% in the TTM, highlighting cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is positive, indicating some ability to generate cash from operations, but the free cash flow to net income ratio is negative, reflecting cash flow constraints and potential liquidity issues.
BreakdownTTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income Statement
Total Revenue20.28M9.07M5.41M2.73M1.20M102.13K
Gross Profit13.21M5.46M2.96M1.21M606.57K102.13K
EBITDA102.57K-938.00K-678.00K-1.94M-26.00M-4.27M
Net Income-2.19M-2.36M-1.92M-2.74M-26.58M-4.38M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets15.52M9.34M5.85M4.28M3.67M5.29M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments3.35M3.56M1.58M1.16M1.01M4.14M
Total Debt8.48M5.20M5.34M2.90M338.02K70.22K
Total Liabilities12.15M6.91M6.41M3.50M592.71K799.24K
Stockholders Equity2.46M2.18M-723.22K716.50K3.05M4.49M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow684.51K-1.03M-1.08M-1.74M-4.18M-1.80M
Operating Cash Flow1.83M-888.54K-722.92K-1.62M-4.18M-1.78M
Investing Cash Flow-1.72M-12.73K-350.68K-31.03K-664.55K144.59K
Financing Cash Flow-409.35K3.12M1.24M1.82M1.64M5.47M

Happy Belly Food Group Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price2.28
Price Trends
50DMA
1.77
Positive
100DMA
1.49
Positive
200DMA
1.30
Positive
Market Momentum
MACD
0.14
Negative
RSI
77.01
Negative
STOCH
86.15
Negative
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:HBFG, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 2.28 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.91, above the 50-day MA of 1.77, and above the 200-day MA of 1.30, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 77.01 is Negative, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 86.15 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for TSE:HBFG.

Happy Belly Food Group Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (62)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
62
Neutral
$20.33B14.63-3.31%3.23%1.93%-12.26%
60
Neutral
C$42.00M18.074.23%46.54%968.67%
45
Neutral
C$281.14M-124.59-95.27%212.16%-46.40%
41
Neutral
C$22.20M-1.66-1208.82%190.07%-2.88%
37
Underperform
C$13.66M-4.6769.12%43.02%
25
Underperform
C$238.23M-79.0530.02%35.29%
* Consumer Defensive Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
TSE:HBFG
Happy Belly Food Group
2.28
1.10
93.22%
TSE:BU
Burcon Nutrascience
1.72
0.12
7.57%
TSE:DTEA
DAVIDsTEA
0.85
0.38
82.80%
TSE:ISTK
Good Flour Corp
2.00
1.91
2122.22%
TSE:SWP
Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc
4.50
0.62
15.98%
TSE:NPRA
Nepra Foods
0.12
<0.01
9.09%

Happy Belly Food Group Corporate Events

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness Franchise in Airdrie, Alberta
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has announced a new franchise agreement and secured real estate for Heal Wellness in Airdrie, Alberta, marking a significant step in its expansion across the province. The strategic location in a high-visibility retail area is expected to capitalize on Airdrie’s rapid growth and health-conscious demographics, aligning with Heal Wellness’ mission to provide nutritious dining options. This move strengthens Heal Wellness’ position as a leading smoothie bowl and wellness QSR brand in Canada, contributing to Happy Belly’s portfolio of 626 retail franchise locations.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly’s Rosie’s Burgers Expands into U.S. Market with Texas Location
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group announced that its Rosie’s Burgers brand has secured its first U.S. real-estate location in Texas, marking the brand’s entry into the U.S. market. This expansion is significant for Happy Belly as it leverages its multi-branded platform and franchise model to scale across borders, enhancing its presence in a high-traffic area near Texas Tech University. The move aligns with Happy Belly’s strategy of combining franchised growth with targeted corporate store openings, reinforcing its commitment to becoming a leading restaurant consolidator.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Yolks Breakfast with New Toronto Location
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has announced the grand opening of its newest Yolks Breakfast location in Toronto’s Bloor West Village, marking the brand’s second Ontario location and fifth nationwide. This expansion aligns with the company’s asset-light franchising strategy and aims to strengthen Yolks’ position in the breakfast category, with plans for further growth in 2026. The new location is part of a strategic move to capitalize on existing infrastructure and a target demographic that resonates with the brand, enhancing both top-line and bottom-line profitability for Happy Belly.

Financial Disclosures
Happy Belly Food Group to Release Q3 Results on November 25, 2025
Neutral
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group Inc. has announced that it will release its third-quarter results on November 25, 2025, after market close. This announcement signifies the company’s ongoing commitment to transparency and provides stakeholders with insights into its financial performance, potentially impacting its market positioning and investor relations.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness into U.S. Market
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness has secured its first U.S. real-estate location in Lubbock, Texas, marking a significant step in its expansion into the American market. This move aligns with the company’s strategy to leverage Texas’s dynamic consumer market, characterized by a warm climate, strong population growth, and a health-conscious demographic, to establish Heal as a leading smoothie and acai bowl brand in North America. The location’s strategic positioning near Texas Tech University is expected to drive consistent foot traffic and demand, supporting Happy Belly’s asset-light, franchise-driven growth model and reinforcing its mission to become a leading restaurant consolidator.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly’s Heal Wellness Expands into U.S. Market with Texas Location
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness brand has secured its first U.S. real-estate location in Lubbock, Texas, marking a significant step in its expansion strategy to become North America’s leading smoothie and acai bowl brand. This move aligns with the brand’s focus on health-conscious consumers in dynamic markets, leveraging Texas’s favorable demographics and economic conditions to drive growth and strengthen its franchise-driven model.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness to Toronto’s Eaton Centre
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has announced a new franchise agreement and secured a prime location for Heal Wellness at Toronto’s Eaton Centre, a high-traffic retail destination. This expansion aligns with Heal Wellness’s mission to provide healthy, fresh, and convenient foods, and supports Happy Belly’s broader strategy to consolidate restaurant brands across Canada, with 626 franchise locations in development.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Yolks Breakfast into Edmonton
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Yolks Breakfast has signed a franchise agreement to enter the Edmonton market, aligning with its Western Canada growth strategy. This move is part of Happy Belly’s broader expansion plan, which emphasizes efficient scaling and securing high-traffic real estate, with the goal of enhancing shareholder value and building a high-performance platform of emerging restaurant brands.

Business Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly’s Heal Wellness Expands with Bradford Franchise
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness, a quick-service restaurant brand specializing in smoothie bowls and smoothies, has signed a franchise agreement for Bradford, Ontario. This move aligns with Heal Wellness’ asset-light growth strategy and aims to strengthen its position as a leading wellness QSR brand in Canada, contributing to Happy Belly’s broader portfolio of 626 retail franchise locations.

Business Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly’s Heal Wellness Expands into London, Ontario
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness has signed a franchise agreement to expand into London, Ontario, as part of its strategy to grow its presence in key Canadian markets. This expansion aligns with Heal’s goal to become North America’s leading smoothie bowl chain, leveraging London’s vibrant community and large student population to drive growth. With 27 locations operating and over 168 in development, Heal’s expansion supports Happy Belly’s broader portfolio of 626 committed retail franchise locations, enhancing its industry positioning and offering potential benefits to stakeholders.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands iQ Food Co. with New Toronto Location
Positive
Nov 18, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has announced the grand opening of a new iQ Food Co. location in Toronto’s Avenue & Lawrence neighborhood. This marks the seventh location for iQ, a quick-service restaurant known for its healthy, clean-eating menu. The expansion is part of Happy Belly’s strategy to grow its footprint in key urban markets across Canada, with over 75 new franchised locations under development. The new location underscores iQ’s commitment to providing premium healthy dining experiences and catering services to health-conscious consumers, contributing to brand awareness and customer loyalty.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands with New Toronto Combo Store
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has secured a prime real estate location in Toronto for its second combination store featuring iQ Food Co. and Heal Wellness. This expansion reflects the company’s strategy to optimize real estate efficiency and enhance customer accessibility by pairing complementary brands. The new location on Queen Street West is strategically positioned to attract the area’s health-conscious demographic, aligning with the fresh, wellness-driven menus of both brands. This move is part of Happy Belly’s broader growth strategy, which includes expanding its retail franchise locations across Canada.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness to Ottawa
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group announced that its brand Heal Wellness has secured its first real estate location in Ottawa, marking a significant milestone in its expansion. This move is part of Happy Belly’s strategy to grow its footprint across Canada, supported by strong franchise partnerships and strategic real estate acquisitions. The expansion into Barrhaven, a growing suburb of Ottawa, is expected to capitalize on the area’s demand for healthy and convenient dining options, further solidifying Heal Wellness’s position as a leader in the açaí bowl market.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Strengthens Board with New Appointment
Positive
Oct 7, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has appointed Dan Haroun to its Board of Directors, bringing his extensive leadership experience in the food, retail, and restaurant industries to the company. Haroun’s expertise in scaling brands and financial performance is expected to enhance Happy Belly’s strategic execution capabilities as it embarks on accelerated national and US expansion, aiming to establish itself as Canada’s leading restaurant consolidator.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Unveils New Compensation Plan to Boost Shareholder Value
Positive
Oct 3, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has announced its 2026–2031 Compensation Growth Plans aimed at aligning executive and board compensation with long-term shareholder value. The plan includes stock options and performance warrants that reward executives only upon achieving sustained business performance and significant share price milestones. This strategy is designed to retain and incentivize leadership while ensuring their interests align with shareholders, reinforcing the company’s commitment to growth and market expansion.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group to Fully Acquire Heal Wellness
Positive
Oct 2, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has announced a definitive agreement to acquire the remaining 50% of Heal Wellness, a quick-service restaurant brand known for its smoothie bowls and açaí bowls. This acquisition will make Heal Wellness a wholly owned subsidiary of Happy Belly, enhancing its market presence with 27 operating stores and a pipeline of 168 additional locations across Canada and the U.S. The move is part of Happy Belly’s strategy to scale and franchise emerging restaurant brands, and it reflects the company’s commitment to expanding its wellness-focused dining options.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness into Quebec
Positive
Oct 1, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness has announced the signing of its first real-estate location in Montreal, Quebec, marking a significant step in its coast-to-coast expansion. This move reflects the company’s strategic focus on Quebec as a priority growth market and demonstrates confidence in its scalable franchise model. With 27 locations already operating and 168 more in development, Heal Wellness aims to become North America’s leading smoothie bowl chain. The announcement underscores Happy Belly’s successful strategy in launching and scaling emerging brands, with 626 contractually committed retail franchise locations across its portfolio.

Business Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness with New Location in South Surrey
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness has announced the signing of a new location in South Surrey, British Columbia, marking the fourth location in a 10-unit agreement with a multi-unit franchisee. This expansion into a high-income, health-conscious community underscores the brand’s strategic growth in areas with strong demand for nutritious, convenient food options. The move is part of Happy Belly’s broader strategy to rapidly scale its brands across Canada, leveraging strong partnerships and a robust franchise support system to enhance its national presence.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Rosie’s Burgers Expands with New Calgary Location
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Rosie’s Burgers, a boutique QSR restaurant brand under Happy Belly Food Group, is expanding its presence with the opening of a new location in Calgary, Alberta. This expansion is part of Rosie’s strategic growth plan, which includes both franchised and corporate store openings, aiming to establish the brand as a leading player in Canada’s smash burger market. The new location in Bridgeland, Calgary, is strategically chosen for its vibrant community and high foot traffic, promising a strong market for Rosie’s offerings. With 115 locations secured across Canada, Happy Belly is focused on accelerating growth through organic initiatives and strategic acquisitions, positioning itself as a major restaurant consolidator in the country.

Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Rosie’s Burgers into Quebec
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Rosie’s Burgers brand has secured its first real estate location in Quebec, specifically in the Mile End neighborhood of Montreal. This marks the first of ten planned locations in the Greater Montreal Area under a franchise agreement with Carma Hospitality. The expansion into Quebec is part of a broader strategy to rapidly scale Rosie’s Burgers across Canada, with 115 locations already secured under various agreements. The new location in Mile End, known for its vibrant culinary scene, is expected to capitalize on the area’s demand for innovative comfort food, further strengthening Rosie’s position in the Canadian market.

M&A TransactionsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Finalizes Via Cibo Acquisition Agreement
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has finalized the earn-out agreement for its acquisition of the Via Cibo Restaurant Chain, which specializes in fast-casual Italian street food. The integration of Via Cibo into Happy Belly’s framework has led to increased EBITDA and expansion with new franchise locations. The company continues to leverage its asset-light franchise model to accelerate growth, aiming to become a leading restaurant consolidator in Canada. The transaction involves issuing shares to the sellers and is classified as a related party transaction under regulatory guidelines.

Business Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Expands Heal Wellness Franchise to Collingwood
Positive
Sep 30, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group’s Heal Wellness has signed a franchise agreement for Collingwood, Ontario, as part of its strategy to expand its footprint and become the leading smoothie bowl chain in North America. With 27 locations currently open and 168 in development, the company is actively working to grow its retail franchise locations, aiming to significantly expand its pipeline in the latter half of 2025 and 2026.

Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Happy Belly Food Group Appoints New Vice President of Finance to Drive Growth
Positive
Sep 8, 2025

Happy Belly Food Group has appointed Josh Hone as Vice President of Finance to support its ongoing franchising demand and organic growth. Hone brings over 15 years of experience in finance, particularly in wellness, food & beverage, and financial services, and is expected to play a crucial role in propelling the company into its next growth phase.

Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.Date of analysis: Dec 11, 2025